Central Bank of Argentina

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June 25, 2024

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Argentina GDP: Economy Shrinks 2.6% in the First Quarter
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June 25, 2024 2:16 PM UTC

Argentina's GDP shrank by 2.6% in Q1, entering a technical recession. Investments and consumption dropped significantly, while agriculture grew. This contraction, driven by Milei's economic policies, is expected to continue in Q2, with rising unemployment and poverty. A slightly recovery is anticipa

June 24, 2024

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LatAm Outlook: Pausing the Cuts
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June 24, 2024 6:00 PM UTC

·       Brazil and Mexico growth will decelerate from the growth rates in 2023. The stronger basis of comparisons in 2023 and the tight monetary policy will diminish growth during 2024. Brazil robust Agricultural growth will not repeat in 2023 while Mexico is on the limit of growing due to a

May 22, 2024

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Argentina: Fourth Consecutive Month of Primary Surplus but It is Reducing
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May 22, 2024 2:44 PM UTC

Argentina has delivered the fourth consecutive months of primary surplus. Most of this surplus comes from cutting the consumption of goods and services by the national administration and mainly by the pace of revenues growth which surpassed the growth of expenditures. However, the surpluses are redu

May 15, 2024

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Argentina CPI Review: Monthly Inflation Drops to One Digit
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May 15, 2024 12:18 PM UTC

Argentina's April CPI dropped to 8.8% after six months above 10%, with Y/Y CPI at 289%. Key rises included housing (+36%) and communication (+14.2%). Javier Milei's program and fiscal adjustments have reduced monetary emissions to zero, easing inflation. The Central Bank cut the policy rate to 40%.

April 26, 2024

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Argentina: Activity is Shrinking but that is the Price to Stabilize
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April 26, 2024 5:52 PM UTC

The INDEC data for February reveals a 0.2% economic shrinkage, signalling a 5.1% drop since August 2023, potentially leading to a Q1 2024 recession. High inflation and fiscal adjustments are primary causes. Some foresee 0% April inflation due to price realignment and stable ARS. Despite low reserves

April 14, 2024

Argentina CPI Review: Small Improvements Amid the Uncertainty
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April 14, 2024 1:26 PM UTC

The INDEC's March CPI data reveals an 11.0% increase, down from February's 13.2%. Annually, Argentine CPI rose by 287% (Y/Y), with core CPI below 10%. Despite past shocks, we foresee continued monthly CPI slowdown. Argentina focuses on fiscal measures and on stabilize the exchange rate to accumulate

March 22, 2024

LatAm Outlook: Getting Deeper in the Cutting Cycle
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March 22, 2024 7:04 PM UTC

·       Brazil and Mexico growth will decelerate from the growth rates seen in 2023. The stronger basis of comparisons in 2023 and the tight monetary policy will diminish growth during 2024. Brazil robust agricultural growth will not repeat in 2024, while Mexico growth is restrained by a tigh

March 13, 2024

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Argentina CPI Review: Inflation Eases in February to 13%, but it Still a Long Road
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March 13, 2024 8:09 PM UTC

The February CPI release by Argentina's INDEC shows a slight ease in inflation to 13.8% (m/m), yet on an annual basis, it has soared to 276%, hitting a record high since the 1980s. Major increases were noted in Transport (21%), Food and Beverages (11%), and Housing (20%). While indicating initial im

February 15, 2024

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Argentina: CPI grows 20.6% in January
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February 15, 2024 1:26 PM UTC

Argentina's CPI surged in January, marking a 20.6% increase (m/m), the highest globally. Annual figures show a staggering 254% rise. The rise was influenced by the exchange rate devaluation and the release of controlled prices. Only in April we will probably see a CPI cleaned from this noises. The g

February 07, 2024

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Argentina: Milei’s First set of Laws Rejected in the Chamber of Deputies
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February 7, 2024 12:53 PM UTC

JJavier Milei's ambitious deregulation laws for the Argentine economy faced rejection in the Chamber of Deputies, signaling challenges in negotiating with the current Congress. Milei's government must now revise its strategy, possibly focusing on less contentious issues. Despite setbacks, the govern

January 24, 2024

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Argentina: Road to stabilization will be bumpy
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January 24, 2024 9:38 PM UTC

Javier Milei's administration, despite securing an IMF deal, faces hurdles in stabilizing Argentina. Targeting a $10 billion increase in net reserves, equivalent to a quarter of the country's gross reserves, may prove overly ambitious. Contentious laws in Congress lack consensus, sparking opposition

December 21, 2023

Argentina: Milei’s Emergency Decree Will Test Congress Support for His Agenda
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December 21, 2023 1:58 PM UTC

After a day of subdued protests organized by social organizations, Javier Milei took to television to announce a series of measures aimed at deregulating the Argentine economy. Milei's objective is clearly to transition from a state-led economy to a pro-market economy as quickly as possible. His dec

December 15, 2023

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LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024
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December 15, 2023 12:25 PM UTC

Our Forecasts
Risks to Our Views
Source: Continuum Economics
Brazil: Switching Back to Slow Growth?
Brazil growth has finally begun to decelerate (here), as the growth in the third quarter dropped to 0.1% (q/q). However, growth for 2023 is expected to stand at 3.2% (Yr/Yr) which is quite a bit higher th

December 14, 2023

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Argentina: Tentative Shock Plan Announced
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December 14, 2023 3:50 PM UTC

Figure 1: Argentina Exchange Rate (ARS/USD)Source: Refinitiv and MEF
Argentina's new Economic Minister, Luis Caputo, has unveiled the initial economic measures under Javier Milei's administration, focusing on addressing the root cause of Argentina's economic woes—the fiscal deficit. In a 16-minute

November 24, 2023

LatAm: Long Term Growth Differences
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November 24, 2023 11:52 AM UTC

We see different patterns of growth for the Latin American countries. Brazil, Mexico and Argentina have different types of constraints that will define their long-term growth.
Figure 1: Annual GDP Growth
Source: Continuum Economics. *forecasts
We observe that the long-term growth trajectory for Brazil

November 22, 2023

El niño impacts on Latin America: a headwind for Brazil
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November 22, 2023 11:30 AM UTC

El Niño is a climate pattern that makes Pacific Ocean waters warmer and, consequently, triggers extreme weather conditions in Latin America (LatAm) economies. However, its impacts among the LatAm countries varies. In some regions, this climate phenomenon causes severe droughts, impacting agricultur

November 14, 2023

Argentina CPI Review: Prices Freeze led to a slowdown on inflation
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November 14, 2023 5:17 PM UTC

Figure 1: Argentina CPI by Groups (m/m, %)
Source: INDEC
The Argentina National Statistics Institute (INDEC) has recently released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October. According to the data, Argentina's CPI witnessed an 8.3% month-on-month increase. Despite the elevated inflation levels fo

September 28, 2023

LatAm Outlook: Growth Continues
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September 28, 2023 8:46 PM UTC

Our Forecasts
Risks to Our Views
Source: Continuum Economics
Brazil: Brighter than Expected
The Brazilian economy has surpassed expectations in the first half of this year. In the initial quarter, robust growth was predominantly driven by an exceptional surge in the agricultural sector, as soybean produ

August 22, 2023

Argentina: Post Primaries Devaluation
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August 22, 2023 1:32 PM UTC

Figure 1: Official and Black Market Exchange Rate (ARS/USD)
Source: BCAR and Refinitiv
Following the unexpected triumph of far-right candidate Javier Milei in the Argentine Primaries, a comprehensive set of measures has been unveiled by the Argentine Government. Notably, a 21% devaluation of the offi

August 14, 2023

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Argentina Primaries: An Open Three Horses Race
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August 14, 2023 8:12 PM UTC

Figure 1: Votes in the National Primaries for Presidency (%)
Source: La Nacion
Argentina's National Primaries Election took place on August 13th, serving as a crucial preliminary step in determining the final candidates for the upcoming general election scheduled for October 22nd. Currently, three mai

July 31, 2023

Argentina: New Staff Level Agreement with IMF Reached
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July 31, 2023 2:27 PM UTC

Figure 1: Argentina Gross International Reserves (USD Bn)
Source: BCRA
Argentina has reached a new agreement with the IMF concerning their existing deal. The recent severe droughts have made it evident that the quantitative targets of the previous agreement would not be achieved, necessitating negotia

July 18, 2023

Argentina: Elections Shapes up
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July 18, 2023 4:53 PM UTC

Argentina's upcoming election is taking shape, with Presidential candidates for the primaries now well-defined. The ruling coalition, now operating under the new name "Unión por la Patria," has nominated two candidates: Economy Minister Sergio Massa and youth leader Juan Grabois. On the other side,

June 21, 2023

LatAm Outlook: Lower Inflation and Growth above Expectations
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June 21, 2023 9:27 AM UTC

Our Forecasts
Risks to Our Views
Source: Continuum Economics
Brazil: Higher Agricultural Production and Lower Inflation
The Brazilian economy experienced robust growth in the first quarter of 2023, with a notable expansion of 1.9% quarter-on-quarter (here). This growth was primarily driven by a remarkab

May 26, 2023

Argentina: Small Recover Delays the Recession Threat for Now
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May 26, 2023 2:14 PM UTC

Figure 1: Argentina Activity Index (2019 = 100, Seasonally Adjusted)
Source: INDEC
The Argentine National Statistics Institute (INDEC) has released the estimation of its monthly activity indicator. The released data suggest that the Argentine economy has recovered during the first months of the year.

May 16, 2023

Argentina: Inflation Uproar
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May 16, 2023 2:35 PM UTC

Figure 1: Argentina Inflation (%)
Source: INDEC
Argentine inflation came as a surprise in April, surpassing expectations. The Bloomberg market survey projected a 7.5% (m/m) increase, but the figures released by the National Statistics Institute (INDEC) revealed a higher growth of 8.5% (m/m). Consequen

May 05, 2023

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Argentina: Economic Chaos Continues
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May 5, 2023 1:05 PM UTC

Figure 1: Argentina Gross International Reserves
Source: BCRA
Argentina reserves have dropped to the lowest levels in 7 years. Initial estimates points that Argentina is likely to loss USD 3.5 Bn in grain exports due to the severe drought in 2023, which will affect the capacity of the Central Bank of

April 27, 2023

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Latam Trade Outlook: Very Different Patterns

April 27, 2023 1:06 PM UTC

Mexico:
Figure 1: Mexico Exports and Imports (12 months sum, USD Bn)
Source: INEGI
Mexico’s main trading partner is the United States, which corresponds to 80% of their exports values. Additionally, Mexico is a relatively open economy as trade corresponds to around 40% of Mexican GDP. The main story

April 25, 2023

Argentine Elections: Incumbent President Fernandes Withdraws from the Race
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April 25, 2023 12:34 PM UTC

On a suddenly move, incumbent President Alberto Fernandes has withdrawn from the electoral race. In a 7 minutes’ video posted on his social networks, the President stated that he will work toward a smooth succession to whoever wins on the ballots in October. There have been many clashes within its

April 17, 2023

Argentina: CPI Continues its Upward Trend
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April 17, 2023 4:56 PM UTC

I
Figure 1: Argentina CPI (%, y/y)
Source: INDEC
Argentine statistics institute (INDEC) has released inflation data for March. Unsurprisingly, inflation has continued its upward trend reaching 104.2% (y/y) by growing 7.9% (m/m) during March. Food inflation, which affects mainly the poorest have registe

April 06, 2023

Argentina: IMF Deal Relaxed; The New Agrodollar
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April 6, 2023 7:05 PM UTC

IMF Deal Relaxed
The IMF has concluded the fourth review of their deal with Argentina. On the document, they stated that all the targets set for the program for the Q4/2022 were fulfilled, namely, the primary target of 1.9% of the GDP, the ceiling for the monetary financing of the Treasury at 0.8% of

March 24, 2023

LatAm Outlook: Putting the Gears Down
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March 24, 2023 3:09 PM UTC

Our Forecasts
Risks to Our Views
Source: Continuum Economics
Brazil: Handbrakes on
The Brazilian economy has begun to show signs of deceleration as the effects of the contractionary policy are starting to be felt. Q4 GDP (here) has marginally contracted (-0.2% q/q), and the strong impetus that the servi

March 23, 2023

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Argentina: Activity Shrinks during Q4

March 23, 2023 6:59 PM UTC

Figure 1: Argentina’s GDP (2019 = 100, Seasonally Adjusted)
Source: INDEC and Continuum Economics
Argentine National Statistics Institute (INDEC) revealed the GDP figures for the last quarter of 2022. In line with other activity indexes (here), the GDP figures shows a strong contraction during the l

March 16, 2023

Argentina: IMF Quarterly Review Concluded, Inflation Surpasses the Triple Digits.
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March 16, 2023 2:15 PM UTC

IMF has concluded the fourth quarterly review of the USD 50Bln deal with Argentina and concluded that all Q4-2022 targets were achieved, which would allow a further disbursement of around USD 4Bln to occur. Indeed, Argentina was able to comply with the 2.5% fiscal deficit, and the accumulation of ne

February 27, 2023

Argentina: Activity Index Shows a Strong Contraction in Q4
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February 27, 2023 1:36 PM UTC

Figure 1: Argentina Monthly Economic Activity Index (2004=100, Seasonally Adjusted)
Source: INDEC
Argentine National Statistics Institute has released its monthly economic activity index for December. The index has contracted for four consecutive months and accumulated a 1.7% fall during the last quar

February 17, 2023

Argentina: Inflation Reaching Triple Digits
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February 17, 2023 1:53 PM UTC

Figure 1: CPI Inflation (y/y)
Source: Indec
January CPI came hot in Argentina. The index grew 6% despite the government efforts to manage price increases through the Fair Prices Measure (here). The y/y index reached 98%, the biggest since Argentina hyperinflation of the early 1990’s. The inflation i

January 18, 2023

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Argentina Politics: Incumbent President Fernandes Set not to Be Re-elected
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January 18, 2023 1:43 PM UTC

Complex Economic Situation
Inflation in Argentina has risen to the highest since its hyperinflation years in 1991. The y/y figure reached 95%. Although it avoided triple digits as many market participants were previewing, Argentina registers one of the biggest inflation in the world and getting out o

September 09, 2022

Argentina: Partial Devaluation
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September 9, 2022 1:10 PM UTC

Figure 1: Official and 'Blue' Dollar
Source: BCRA, Refinitiv, Continuum Economics
The Argentine government has listened to soybeans producers' claims and created a new FX line for them. Since June, soybean producers had been holding back stocks and refusing to deliver exports, which prevents the Argen

August 05, 2022

Argentina: No Super Measures from New Economy Minister
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August 5, 2022 1:10 PM UTC

Politician Sergio Massa took over as Argentina's economy minister on Aug. 3. At his first press conference, Massa announced the four pillars of his mandate: fiscal order, trade surplus, FX strengthening and inclusive development. We believe that the four pillars are a good signal, as he seems to kno

August 01, 2022

Argentina: Super Minister Won’t Save Argentina
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August 1, 2022 1:54 PM UTC

Argentine President Alberto Fernandez will remove Economy Minister Silvina Batakis after just 27 days in office. The dismissal came shortly after Batakis arrived back in Argentina after meeting with several authorities in the U.S. Her replacement is not an economist, but rather a politician, Sergio

July 28, 2022

Argentina: New FX Measures, Rolling the Rock Uphill
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July 28, 2022 3:29 PM UTC

Figure 1: Official and Blue Dollar (ARS/USD)
Source: BCRA, Refinitiv, Continuum Economics
Argentina is facing a strong devaluation of the so-called blue dollar, which is the accessible dollar available to Argentineans outside the regulated official market. In recent days, the ratio between the blue do