Japan

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June 14, 2024

BoJ Review: Pushing Hikes to July, if any
Paying Article

June 14, 2024 5:24 AM UTC

BoJ keep rates and bond purchase the same, suggesting the planning for bond purchase cut will be decided in July

June 11, 2024

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DM Fiscal Consolidation Problems: Politics/Central bank QT and Low Nominal GDP
Paying Article

June 11, 2024 2:10 PM UTC

 Some governments are politically reluctant to restrain government expenditure growth or in the U.S. case raise taxes.  This means that intermittent fiscal stress and concerns can be seen in the coming years.  However, to get to crisis levels would require a government that abandons any attempts

May 28, 2024

Continuum Economics Calendar June 2024
Paying Article

May 28, 2024 11:13 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar June 2024.

May 27, 2024

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BoJ's Door Closing But Window Opens
Paying Article

May 27, 2024 5:23 AM UTC

Since the BoJ moved interest rate to 0% in March, most market participants expects further tightening as it is hard to believe the BoJ would hike once after all these years of ultra-loose monetary policy, in face of higher inflation. However, with headline inflation trading closer to 2%, it seems th

May 16, 2024

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France and Japan: Debt Fuelled Growth Problem
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 10:30 AM UTC

Most of the surge in debt/GDP in Japan and 40% in France is due to higher government debt and this should not be a binding constraint provided that large scale QT is avoided – we see the ECB slowing QT in 2025 and are skeptical about BOJ QT in the next few years.  The adverse impact of higher deb

May 10, 2024

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Asset Allocation 2024: Tricky Seven Months Remaining
Paying Article

May 10, 2024 1:06 PM UTC

Fed easing expectations for 2025 and 2026 can shift from a terminal 4% Fed Funds rate towards 3%, as the U.S. economy slows due to lagged tightening effects.  Combined with Fed easing starting in September this should mean a consistent decline in 2yr yields.  However, 10yr U.S. Treasury yields wil

May 02, 2024

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China Politburo: Help for Housing, But No Game changers
Paying Article

May 2, 2024 10:50 AM UTC

Politburo statement in late April suggests extra support for residential property.  However, we see this as being incremental rather than any game changers and we still see residential investment remaining a negative drag on 2024 GDP growth.

April 29, 2024

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China: Depreciation Rather Than Devaluation
Paying Article

April 29, 2024 1:00 PM UTC

We feel that a devaluation of the Yuan is unlikely in 2024, both to avoid potentially politically destabilizing capital outflows but also to avoid upsetting the next U.S. president.  Policy is geared more towards controlled depreciation to help competiveness but reduce other risks.  The Yuan has a

April 26, 2024

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Headwinds To Long-term Global Growth
Paying Article

April 26, 2024 9:30 AM UTC

Bottom line: While much focus is on the cyclical economic position to determine 2024 monetary policy prospects, the 2025-28 structural growth trajectory differs to the pre 2020 GDP trajectory for major economies.  While global fragmentation has a role to play, aging populations are already having a

April 25, 2024

BoJ's Intervention and its impact
Paying Article

April 25, 2024 6:24 AM UTC

In the period of time when JPY significantly weakens or strengthens, BoJ will intervene in the FX market either through verbal or actual intervention. As JPY weakened significantly in the past months, once again we found ourselves in the proximity of FX intervention with unknowns for anonymity is ke

April 22, 2024

BoJ Preview: Showing no hurry
Paying Article

April 22, 2024 6:13 AM UTC

Our central forecast is for the BoJ to remain on hold for interest rate and signals the market they are in no rush to further tighten while allowing trend inflation data to lead policy direction in their forward guidance. BoJ has moved interest rate to 0% and officially removed YCC in March, citing

April 17, 2024

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Markets: Fed Rather Than Middle East Worries
Paying Article

April 17, 2024 12:34 PM UTC

Global markets are being driven by a scale back in Fed easing expectations and we see a 5-10% U.S. equity market correction being underway.  However, with the market now only discounting one 25bps Fed cut in 2024, any downside surprises on U.S. growth or better controlled monthly inflation numbers

April 03, 2024

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March Outlook: Europe in Focus, Then Elections Around the World
Paying Article

April 3, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

April 02, 2024

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Asset Allocation: Pausing for Breath
Paying Article

April 2, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

Into Q2, data and policy (actual and perceived) will dominate DM markets. The ECB will likely take the spotlight with a 25bps cut on June 7, as the Fed face a better growth/more fiscal policy expansion and a tighter labor market than the EZ but also with a better productivity backdrop and outlook to

March 27, 2024

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Japan: 10yr JGB Yields To Exceed 1% in 2024?
Paying Article

March 27, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

Though BOJ soothed markets with last Tuesday’s rate hike and scrapping of yield curve control, we see scope for 10yr JGB yields to rise through 1% by summer/autumn.  The current pace of net JGB purchases is a lot lower than H1 2023, while Ueda noted that this pace could be slowed in the future. 

March 26, 2024

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Chartbook: Quarterly Forecasts FX/Rates/Equities For Q2 2024
Paying Article

March 26, 2024 9:23 AM UTC

Our latest quarterly Forecasts FX/Rates/Equities/Commodities for Q2 2024 are now available, see resources at the end.  

March 25, 2024

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Outlook Overview: Europe in Focus, Then Elections Around the World
Paying Article

March 25, 2024 11:15 AM UTC

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Japan Outlook: Beginning of A New Era?
Paying Article

March 25, 2024 4:54 AM UTC

Bottom Line:
Forecast changes: We revised 2024 GDP lower to +0.8% from +0.9% because private consumption is now expected to contract in Q1 2024. 2024 CPI is revised higher to +2.1% from +1.7% to address the stronger wage hike Japanese unions secured.

March 22, 2024

Continuum Economics Calendar April 2024
Paying Article

March 22, 2024 4:19 PM UTC

Data and Events Calendar April2024.

March 19, 2024

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BoJ Review: Zero
Paying Article

March 19, 2024 6:14 AM UTC

BoJ has moved interest rate to 0% and officially removed YCC. However, forward guidance suggest the BoJ is in no hurry to further tighten

March 13, 2024

BoJ Preview: 50-50
Paying Article

March 13, 2024 3:17 AM UTC

Our central forecast is for the BoJ to change forward guidance in March, indicating trend inflation will be achieving target and ultra-ease monetary policy is no longer necessary and hike interest rate to 0% in April as wage growth has accelerated and the latest wage negotiation is likely to ensure

March 12, 2024

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Japanese Equities: Yen Headwind Rather than Tailwind
Paying Article

March 12, 2024 11:23 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Japanese equities tailwind from a weak JPY boosting corporate earnings will likely go into reverse, as the extreme JPY undervaluation ebbs with small BOJ rate hikes and Fed easing.  We also forecast less nominal GDP growth in 2024 and 2025 than the market consensus.  As this come thro

February 26, 2024

Continuum Economics Calendar March 2024
Paying Article

February 26, 2024 11:23 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar March 2024.

January 30, 2024

Continuum Economics Calendar February 2024
Paying Article

January 30, 2024 9:35 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar February 2024.

January 23, 2024

BoJ Review: Ueda Hinting April Move
Paying Article

January 23, 2024 8:11 AM UTC

The BoJ meeting is a non -event as there is no change to policy and forward guidance. But Ueda is revealing key details in the press conference and hints an April move. 

BoJ Preview: Patiently waiting for spring
Paying Article

January 23, 2024 1:58 AM UTC

The BoJ meeting on Tuesday will likely be a non-event
Latest labor cash earning supports BoJ’s patience in waiting for spring wage negotiation for confirmation in wage growth

January 18, 2024

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Japan: 10yr JGB Yields set to Rise Moderately
Paying Article

January 18, 2024 10:15 AM UTC

The more subdued profile of Japanese wages, plus a delay in the 1st BOJ hike, has prompted us to lower the forecast of a rise in 10yr JGB yields in 2024 – though we still see a rise above 1% (Figure 1).  As BOJ tightening stops, we see 10yr JGB yields falling back again in 2025. 

January 15, 2024

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BoJ: The Pace of Exit
Freemium Article

January 15, 2024 5:41 AM UTC

The BoJ has kicked the can down to the spring wage negotiation before another step in monetary policy. While current inflation forecast has exceeded BoJ's 2% target in all three items of headline, ex fresh food and ex fresh food & energy, the wage growth did not reach a "sustainable" level, which Ue

January 11, 2024

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Webinar Recording December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
Paying Article

January 11, 2024 8:22 AM UTC

You can now access the webinar for the December Outlook here. 
To read the individual chapters please see the weblink below.  
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
China Outloo

January 09, 2024

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Shipping Freight Cost Jump and Inflation – Some Perspectives
Paying Article

January 9, 2024 2:24 PM UTC

Figure 1: Freight Cost Surge in Perspective
Source: DataStream 
How Long?
Houthi rebels have been attacking some ships in the Red Sea in recent weeks.  The key question is how long this will last?  One line of thinking is that the Houthi attacks are part of Iran axis of resistance alongside attacks

January 08, 2024

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Charting our Views December Outlook
Freemium Article

January 8, 2024 9:05 AM UTC

Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
Economic Scenarios 
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
Brazil Policy Rate and CPI Inflation (YoY, %)
China Outlook: Headwinds To China Growth (here)
Japan Outlook: Normalizing

January 03, 2024

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AI and Technology Impact on Growth and Inflation
Paying Article

January 3, 2024 10:30 AM UTC

Bottom Line: The full benefits of the latest AI wave will likely not kick in until the late 2020/early 2030’s.However, 5G over the last couple of years has been enabling more connectivity via the Internet of Things and allowing more big data analysis, including AI tools and algorithms. In the 2hal

January 02, 2024

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December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
Paying Article

January 2, 2024 9:53 AM UTC

Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
China Outlook: Headwinds To China Growth (here)
Japan Outlook: Normalizing Monetary Policy Soon (here)
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook:

December 19, 2023

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December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
Paying Article

December 19, 2023 3:15 PM UTC

Japan Outlook: Normalizing Monetary Policy Soon (here)
DM FX Outlook: The Year of the Yen (here)
EM FX Outlook: USD Decline v Inflation Differentials (here)
Technical Analysis Quarterly Chartbook (here)

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Japan Outlook: Normalizing Monetary Policy Soon
Paying Article

December 19, 2023 9:00 AM UTC

Macroeconomic and Policy Dynamics
Japanese headline inflation continues to moderate throughout 2023 as post COVID pent up demand fades and as supply chain disruption dissipates still further. However, the pace of moderation has been on a rocky road for food inflation (record chicken culling on bird f

Preview: BoJ to Announce New Forward Guidance
Paying Article

December 19, 2023 12:00 AM UTC

The BoJ meeting on December 18-19 is going to announce a change in forward guidance by suggest BoJ will be ready to exit ultra-loose monetary policy as trend inflation is in close sight of 2% target. Some hawkish market participants maybe anticipating an immediate hike from the BoJ to bring rates to

December 18, 2023

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Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024
Paying Article

December 18, 2023 3:42 PM UTC

·     Uncertainty still prevails around this central view.  The impact of lagged monetary tightening could be greater than our estimates and deliver mild recessions in some DM countries.  We also feel that the disinflationary process could be stronger and this would help bring inflation back

December 15, 2023

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Equities Outlook: Rate Cuts To Help in 2024
Paying Article

December 15, 2023 11:00 AM UTC

Equities Outlook: Rate Cuts To Help in 2024
·        For other DM equity markets, EZ and UK are undervalued in contrast to the U.S., but are in or close to recessions and economic recovery will likely be weak and disappointing.  Though the ECB and BOE will likely ease in Q2 with the Fed, we

December 08, 2023

This week's five highlights
Paying Article

December 8, 2023 10:34 AM UTC

U.S. November NFP Likely firmer due to returning strikers
USD/JPY Slumped on Ueda's Speech
Bank of Canada Tightening Bias Persists but is Reduced
USD/CAD Slipping on Weak Oil
RBA Continue to be data dependent
We expect a 200k increase in November's non-farm payroll, stronger than October's 150k though ex

November 22, 2023

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Continuum Economics Calendar December 2023
Paying Article

November 22, 2023 12:14 PM UTC

Data and Events Calendar December 2023.
Click to .

November 21, 2023

European Equities Outlook for 2024 and Into 2025
Paying Article

November 21, 2023 8:14 AM UTC

European Equities are faced with the prospect of a mild recession, but less valuations strains than U.S. equities.What is the outlook in 2024 and into 2025?
While EZ corporate earnings hopes for 2024 will likely be trimmed by a sluggish economic outlook, ECB rate cuts and relief that inflation is fal

November 16, 2023

Long-term Forecasts to download in Excel
Paying Article

November 16, 2023 10:38 AM UTC

We present our annual forecasts that go out to 2030 for GDP Growth, Inflation, and Monetary Policy and to 2028 for Exchange Rates. The file contains five sheets: a Country Coverage summary page and a sheet for each of the four indicators.
The forecasts are consistent with the Long-term Forecasts: DM