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October 02, 2024

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Markets: Rate Cuts or Geopolitics?
Paying Article

October 2, 2024 9:36 AM UTC

Israel will likely counteract Iran, which will prompt a further missile attack by Iran.  However, our bias remains that Israel main aim is to have a buffer zone in southern Lebanon up to the Latani river and not fight a prolonged war with Iran.  This limits the economic fallout globally and on oil

September 27, 2024

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September Outlook: Rate Cuts But How Far?
Paying Article

September 27, 2024 7:44 AM UTC

The 15 chapters of our September Outlook have now been published.  See the headlines and weblinks enclosed for links to the articles on economic, policy and markets for the 23 countries that we cover.

September 25, 2024

Continuum Economics Calendar October 2024
Paying Article

September 25, 2024 1:45 PM UTC

Data and Events Calendar October 2024.

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Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts But How Far?
Paying Article

September 25, 2024 7:30 AM UTC

·        The U.S. economy is slowing, with the critical question being whether this is a soft or harder landing.  Our broad analysis leaves us inclined to the soft landing view into 2025, though we shall watch real sector data closely over the next 3-6 months to check the trajectory.  Else

September 24, 2024

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DM Rates Outlook: Rate Cuts Arrive Except Japan
Paying Article

September 24, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

•    For U.S. Treasuries, we see 2yr yields coming down further on our baseline soft landing view, as the Fed moves consistently to a 3.00-3.25% Fed Funds rate. However, with considerable Fed easing already discounted, 2yr yield decline should be modest and 2yr yields should bottom mid-2025. 1

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Equities Outlook: Choppy U.S. and Outperformance Elsewhere
Freemium Article

September 24, 2024 8:30 AM UTC

 •     We now forecast 5450 for the S&P500 for end 2024, but could see a move to 5200/5000 in the next 3-6 months as volatile data keeps the soft v hard landing debate alive.  On our baseline of a U.S. soft landing, we would see the S&P500 at 5600 by end 2025. The tech sector is still really i

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Japan Outlook: A Hawkish Take
Paying Article

September 24, 2024 5:30 AM UTC

·       GDP growth for 2024 has been revised lower to +0.2% after the consumption contraction in Q1 2024 and the subsequent sluggish recovery in Q2. Private consumption is expected to pick up along improving real wages but its magnitude will be limited by the unwillingness to consume at high

September 20, 2024

BoJ review: Pitstop Along the Road
Freemium Article

September 20, 2024 3:33 AM UTC

The BoJ keep rate unchanged in the Sep 20 meeting at 0.25% with forward guidance of more tightening to come

September 19, 2024

BoJ Preview: Signaling More Tigthening
Freemium Article

September 19, 2024 7:38 AM UTC

The BoJ will likely keep rate unchanged in the Sep 20 meeting with forward guidance of more tightening to come

September 15, 2024

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Sep 27 Outlook Webinar: Rate Cuts But How Far?
Paying Article

September 15, 2024 10:30 AM UTC

    Uncertainty about whether the U.S. economy will have a soft or hard landing is growing as the market approaches Q4.  This is shaping the debate regarding the scale of easing through the remainder of 2024 and 2025 by the Fed.  European easing is underway, but how much further will central ba

August 27, 2024

Continuum Economics Calendar September 2024
Freemium Article

August 27, 2024 1:02 PM UTC

Data and Events Calendar September 2024.

August 13, 2024

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Market Turbulence and What has Changed?
Paying Article

August 13, 2024 12:22 PM UTC

 •   We see the recent market turbulence as being partially a reduction in risky positions.  However, the U.S. economy is slowing and triggering a debate about a soft or harder landing (we see slowing rather than recession in our baseline), while EZ data shows the recovery is not gaining moment

July 31, 2024

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BoJ Review: Too hawkish, too fast
Freemium Article

July 31, 2024 5:39 AM UTC

BoJ hiked rates to 0.25% and announced 3 trillion JPY bond purchases reduction in two years

July 29, 2024

BoJ Preview: Reduction in Bond Purchase
Freemium Article

July 29, 2024 4:27 AM UTC

BoJ will likely decrease bond purchase from six trillion JPY to at least five trillion.

July 24, 2024

Continuum Economics Calendar August 2024
Freemium Article

July 24, 2024 9:15 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar August 2024.

July 02, 2024

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Webinar Recording June Outlook: Cyclical and Structural Forces
Paying Article

July 2, 2024 7:30 AM UTC

June 26, 2024

Continuum Economics Calendar July 2024
Paying Article

June 26, 2024 10:52 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar July 2024.

June 25, 2024

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Outlook Overview: Cyclical and Structural Forces
Paying Article

June 25, 2024 10:15 AM UTC

•    The global economy is showing signs of healing, as inflation comes back towards targets and growth recovers momentum in some economies. Nevertheless, the cyclical headwind of lagged monetary tightening remains in DM countries, and will likely be one of the forces slowing the U.S. economy

June 24, 2024

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DM Rates Outlook: Rate Cuts Arrive Except Japan
Paying Article

June 24, 2024 8:45 AM UTC

•    For U.S. Treasuries we see a steady easing process from the Fed from September, which can allow 2yr yields to fall consistently.  However, the decline in H2 2024 will be slower at the long-end from traditional yield curve steepening pressures and then we see fiscal stress in H1 2025 unde

June 21, 2024

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Japan Outlook: Slow but not Steady
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 12:15 AM UTC

•    GDP growth for 2024 has been revised lower to +0.4% as private consumption contracted stronger in Q1 2024 from moderating but still persistent inflationary pressure. We forecast consumption to gradually recover throughout the rest of 2024 as real wage turned from negative to positive yet

June 14, 2024

BoJ Review: Pushing Hikes to July, if any
Paying Article

June 14, 2024 5:24 AM UTC

BoJ keep rates and bond purchase the same, suggesting the planning for bond purchase cut will be decided in July

June 11, 2024

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DM Fiscal Consolidation Problems: Politics/Central bank QT and Low Nominal GDP
Paying Article

June 11, 2024 2:10 PM UTC

 Some governments are politically reluctant to restrain government expenditure growth or in the U.S. case raise taxes.  This means that intermittent fiscal stress and concerns can be seen in the coming years.  However, to get to crisis levels would require a government that abandons any attempts

May 28, 2024

Continuum Economics Calendar June 2024
Paying Article

May 28, 2024 11:13 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar June 2024.

May 27, 2024

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BoJ's Door Closing But Window Opens
Paying Article

May 27, 2024 5:23 AM UTC

Since the BoJ moved interest rate to 0% in March, most market participants expects further tightening as it is hard to believe the BoJ would hike once after all these years of ultra-loose monetary policy, in face of higher inflation. However, with headline inflation trading closer to 2%, it seems th

May 16, 2024

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France and Japan: Debt Fuelled Growth Problem
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 10:30 AM UTC

Most of the surge in debt/GDP in Japan and 40% in France is due to higher government debt and this should not be a binding constraint provided that large scale QT is avoided – we see the ECB slowing QT in 2025 and are skeptical about BOJ QT in the next few years.  The adverse impact of higher deb

May 10, 2024

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Asset Allocation 2024: Tricky Seven Months Remaining
Paying Article

May 10, 2024 1:06 PM UTC

Fed easing expectations for 2025 and 2026 can shift from a terminal 4% Fed Funds rate towards 3%, as the U.S. economy slows due to lagged tightening effects.  Combined with Fed easing starting in September this should mean a consistent decline in 2yr yields.  However, 10yr U.S. Treasury yields wil

May 02, 2024

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China Politburo: Help for Housing, But No Game changers
Paying Article

May 2, 2024 10:50 AM UTC

Politburo statement in late April suggests extra support for residential property.  However, we see this as being incremental rather than any game changers and we still see residential investment remaining a negative drag on 2024 GDP growth.

April 29, 2024

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China: Depreciation Rather Than Devaluation
Paying Article

April 29, 2024 1:00 PM UTC

We feel that a devaluation of the Yuan is unlikely in 2024, both to avoid potentially politically destabilizing capital outflows but also to avoid upsetting the next U.S. president.  Policy is geared more towards controlled depreciation to help competiveness but reduce other risks.  The Yuan has a

April 26, 2024

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Headwinds To Long-term Global Growth
Paying Article

April 26, 2024 9:30 AM UTC

Bottom line: While much focus is on the cyclical economic position to determine 2024 monetary policy prospects, the 2025-28 structural growth trajectory differs to the pre 2020 GDP trajectory for major economies.  While global fragmentation has a role to play, aging populations are already having a

April 25, 2024

BoJ's Intervention and its impact
Paying Article

April 25, 2024 6:24 AM UTC

In the period of time when JPY significantly weakens or strengthens, BoJ will intervene in the FX market either through verbal or actual intervention. As JPY weakened significantly in the past months, once again we found ourselves in the proximity of FX intervention with unknowns for anonymity is ke

April 22, 2024

BoJ Preview: Showing no hurry
Paying Article

April 22, 2024 6:13 AM UTC

Our central forecast is for the BoJ to remain on hold for interest rate and signals the market they are in no rush to further tighten while allowing trend inflation data to lead policy direction in their forward guidance. BoJ has moved interest rate to 0% and officially removed YCC in March, citing

April 17, 2024

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Markets: Fed Rather Than Middle East Worries
Paying Article

April 17, 2024 12:34 PM UTC

Global markets are being driven by a scale back in Fed easing expectations and we see a 5-10% U.S. equity market correction being underway.  However, with the market now only discounting one 25bps Fed cut in 2024, any downside surprises on U.S. growth or better controlled monthly inflation numbers

April 03, 2024

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March Outlook: Europe in Focus, Then Elections Around the World
Paying Article

April 3, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

April 02, 2024

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Asset Allocation: Pausing for Breath
Paying Article

April 2, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

Into Q2, data and policy (actual and perceived) will dominate DM markets. The ECB will likely take the spotlight with a 25bps cut on June 7, as the Fed face a better growth/more fiscal policy expansion and a tighter labor market than the EZ but also with a better productivity backdrop and outlook to

March 27, 2024

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Japan: 10yr JGB Yields To Exceed 1% in 2024?
Paying Article

March 27, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

Though BOJ soothed markets with last Tuesday’s rate hike and scrapping of yield curve control, we see scope for 10yr JGB yields to rise through 1% by summer/autumn.  The current pace of net JGB purchases is a lot lower than H1 2023, while Ueda noted that this pace could be slowed in the future. 

March 26, 2024

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Chartbook: Quarterly Forecasts FX/Rates/Equities For Q2 2024
Paying Article

March 26, 2024 9:23 AM UTC

Our latest quarterly Forecasts FX/Rates/Equities/Commodities for Q2 2024 are now available, see resources at the end.  

March 25, 2024

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Outlook Overview: Europe in Focus, Then Elections Around the World
Paying Article

March 25, 2024 11:15 AM UTC

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Japan Outlook: Beginning of A New Era?
Paying Article

March 25, 2024 4:54 AM UTC

Bottom Line:
Forecast changes: We revised 2024 GDP lower to +0.8% from +0.9% because private consumption is now expected to contract in Q1 2024. 2024 CPI is revised higher to +2.1% from +1.7% to address the stronger wage hike Japanese unions secured.

March 22, 2024

Continuum Economics Calendar April 2024
Paying Article

March 22, 2024 4:19 PM UTC

Data and Events Calendar April2024.

March 19, 2024

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BoJ Review: Zero
Paying Article

March 19, 2024 6:14 AM UTC

BoJ has moved interest rate to 0% and officially removed YCC. However, forward guidance suggest the BoJ is in no hurry to further tighten

March 13, 2024

BoJ Preview: 50-50
Paying Article

March 13, 2024 3:17 AM UTC

Our central forecast is for the BoJ to change forward guidance in March, indicating trend inflation will be achieving target and ultra-ease monetary policy is no longer necessary and hike interest rate to 0% in April as wage growth has accelerated and the latest wage negotiation is likely to ensure

March 12, 2024

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Japanese Equities: Yen Headwind Rather than Tailwind
Paying Article

March 12, 2024 11:23 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Japanese equities tailwind from a weak JPY boosting corporate earnings will likely go into reverse, as the extreme JPY undervaluation ebbs with small BOJ rate hikes and Fed easing.  We also forecast less nominal GDP growth in 2024 and 2025 than the market consensus.  As this come thro

February 26, 2024

Continuum Economics Calendar March 2024
Paying Article

February 26, 2024 11:23 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar March 2024.