Argentina
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November 13, 2024
Argentina CPI Review: Monthly Inflation Drops to 2.7%
November 13, 2024 3:09 PM UTC
Argentina's October CPI rose by 2.7%, hitting a three-year low and reducing the Y/Y inflation to 192%. Milei’s fiscal shock plan aims to curb inflation, with anticipated tariff adjustments potentially keeping inflation near 3% monthly in the next month. With inflation dropping Argentine government
October 22, 2024
Argentina: Milei’s Plan Going Smoothly
October 22, 2024 5:51 PM UTC
Since taking office, Milei's administration has focused on tackling Argentina's fiscal and monetary imbalances, implementing a shock fiscal plan to reduce expenditures by 4% in 2024. Fiscal surpluses have been recorded monthly, but the adjustment has caused three consecutive quarters of economic con
October 17, 2024
September 25, 2024
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts But How Far?
September 25, 2024 7:30 AM UTC
· The U.S. economy is slowing, with the critical question being whether this is a soft or harder landing. Our broad analysis leaves us inclined to the soft landing view into 2025, though we shall watch real sector data closely over the next 3-6 months to check the trajectory. Else
September 24, 2024
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Patterns
September 24, 2024 12:54 PM UTC
· Brazil and Mexico started to diverge in terms of growth. While we see Brazil GDP growing above 3.0% in 2024 (pushed by the internal demand), we see Mexico’s growth decelerating to 1.3%, due to weaker demand from U.S. and contractionary monetary policy. In 2025, we see Brazil growing
September 19, 2024
Argentina GDP Review: 1.7% Contraction in Q2
September 19, 2024 1:38 PM UTC
Argentina’s GDP contracted by 1.7% in Q2 2024, marking three consecutive quarters of decline, largely due to Milei’s economic reforms. While agriculture grew by 80%, industry and consumption sharply declined. A 4.9% contraction is expected for 2024, with limited recovery in 2025, far below gover
September 15, 2024
Sep 27 Outlook Webinar: Rate Cuts But How Far?
September 15, 2024 10:30 AM UTC
Uncertainty about whether the U.S. economy will have a soft or hard landing is growing as the market approaches Q4. This is shaping the debate regarding the scale of easing through the remainder of 2024 and 2025 by the Fed. European easing is underway, but how much further will central ba
September 12, 2024
Argentina CPI Review: 4.2% only in August
September 12, 2024 2:18 PM UTC
Argentina’s CPI rose 4.2% in August, surpassing market expectations, with Y/Y inflation falling to 236% from 260%. Public service tariff adjustments, particularly in Transport and Housing, were key inflation drivers. Food prices increased 3.5%, while goods CPI grew 3.2%, suggesting a slowing infla
August 22, 2024
Argentina: Economy Continues to Shrink
August 22, 2024 2:08 PM UTC
Argentina’s economy contracted by 0.3% in June (m/m), according to INDEC’s monthly activity indicator and, in quarterly terms, it will accumulate three consecutive quarter of contraction. Despite an 80% annual rise in agricultural activity due to base effects, other sectors like construction and
August 15, 2024
Argentina: CPI at 4.0% in July
August 15, 2024 2:52 PM UTC
Argentina's July CPI rose 4.0%, the lowest since January 2022, yet still above the 2% crawling peg, suggesting real exchange rate appreciation. Year-over-year CPI fell to 263% from 271% in June, with further declines anticipated. Despite some inflation reduction under Milei, price distortions and re
August 13, 2024
Argentina CPI Preview: Inflation Continues to Slowdown
August 13, 2024 12:57 PM UTC
On July 14 Argentina National Statistics Institute (INDEC) will release CPI data for July. Argentina's fiscal adjustment and zero ARS emissions strategy have eased inflation, reducing CPI growth from 20% in January to 3.5% in July. However, the crawling peg exchange rate policy and lack of internati
July 26, 2024
Argentina: Making Sense of the Three Stages Plan
July 26, 2024 2:51 PM UTC
The Central Bank of Argentina's plan for macroeconomic stabilization includes three stages: an orthodox fiscal exit, establishing an orthodox monetary framework, and prudently lifting FX controls. The fiscal deficit reduction has helped end the monetization of the deficit, while transitioning to a c
July 19, 2024
Argentina: Agriculture Drives Growth in May
July 19, 2024 1:10 PM UTC
The Argentine economy showed a 1.3% growth in May, driven mainly by the recovering agricultural sector, which is 100% higher than last year. However, other sectors like manufacturing and construction continue to lag. Despite the growth, economic recovery is uncertain due to fiscal adjustments, excha
July 15, 2024
Argentina: June CPI and Cleaning the Central Bank Balance
July 15, 2024 1:24 PM UTC
Argentina's CPI rose by 4.6% in June, up from 4.1% in May, missing market expectations of 5.1%. The Y/Y CPI fell to 271%. Housing items saw the highest increase at 14.2%, while core CPI growth slowed to 3.0%. Inflation may stabilize around 4.0% monthly. The Central Bank of Argentina's policies are m
July 12, 2024
June 25, 2024
Argentina GDP: Economy Shrinks 2.6% in the First Quarter
June 25, 2024 2:16 PM UTC
Argentina's GDP shrank by 2.6% in Q1, entering a technical recession. Investments and consumption dropped significantly, while agriculture grew. This contraction, driven by Milei's economic policies, is expected to continue in Q2, with rising unemployment and poverty. A slightly recovery is anticipa
Outlook Overview: Cyclical and Structural Forces
June 25, 2024 10:15 AM UTC
• The global economy is showing signs of healing, as inflation comes back towards targets and growth recovers momentum in some economies. Nevertheless, the cyclical headwind of lagged monetary tightening remains in DM countries, and will likely be one of the forces slowing the U.S. economy
June 24, 2024
LatAm Outlook: Pausing the Cuts
June 24, 2024 6:00 PM UTC
· Brazil and Mexico growth will decelerate from the growth rates in 2023. The stronger basis of comparisons in 2023 and the tight monetary policy will diminish growth during 2024. Brazil robust Agricultural growth will not repeat in 2023 while Mexico is on the limit of growing due to a
May 22, 2024
Argentina: Fourth Consecutive Month of Primary Surplus but It is Reducing
May 22, 2024 2:44 PM UTC
Argentina has delivered the fourth consecutive months of primary surplus. Most of this surplus comes from cutting the consumption of goods and services by the national administration and mainly by the pace of revenues growth which surpassed the growth of expenditures. However, the surpluses are redu
May 15, 2024
Argentina CPI Review: Monthly Inflation Drops to One Digit
May 15, 2024 12:18 PM UTC
Argentina's April CPI dropped to 8.8% after six months above 10%, with Y/Y CPI at 289%. Key rises included housing (+36%) and communication (+14.2%). Javier Milei's program and fiscal adjustments have reduced monetary emissions to zero, easing inflation. The Central Bank cut the policy rate to 40%.
April 26, 2024
Argentina: Activity is Shrinking but that is the Price to Stabilize
April 26, 2024 5:52 PM UTC
The INDEC data for February reveals a 0.2% economic shrinkage, signalling a 5.1% drop since August 2023, potentially leading to a Q1 2024 recession. High inflation and fiscal adjustments are primary causes. Some foresee 0% April inflation due to price realignment and stable ARS. Despite low reserves
April 18, 2024
April 14, 2024
Argentina CPI Review: Small Improvements Amid the Uncertainty
April 14, 2024 1:26 PM UTC
The INDEC's March CPI data reveals an 11.0% increase, down from February's 13.2%. Annually, Argentine CPI rose by 287% (Y/Y), with core CPI below 10%. Despite past shocks, we foresee continued monthly CPI slowdown. Argentina focuses on fiscal measures and on stabilize the exchange rate to accumulate
March 25, 2024
March 22, 2024
LatAm Outlook: Getting Deeper in the Cutting Cycle
March 22, 2024 7:04 PM UTC
· Brazil and Mexico growth will decelerate from the growth rates seen in 2023. The stronger basis of comparisons in 2023 and the tight monetary policy will diminish growth during 2024. Brazil robust agricultural growth will not repeat in 2024, while Mexico growth is restrained by a tigh
March 13, 2024
Argentina CPI Review: Inflation Eases in February to 13%, but it Still a Long Road
March 13, 2024 8:09 PM UTC
The February CPI release by Argentina's INDEC shows a slight ease in inflation to 13.8% (m/m), yet on an annual basis, it has soared to 276%, hitting a record high since the 1980s. Major increases were noted in Transport (21%), Food and Beverages (11%), and Housing (20%). While indicating initial im
February 15, 2024
Argentina: CPI grows 20.6% in January
February 15, 2024 1:26 PM UTC
Argentina's CPI surged in January, marking a 20.6% increase (m/m), the highest globally. Annual figures show a staggering 254% rise. The rise was influenced by the exchange rate devaluation and the release of controlled prices. Only in April we will probably see a CPI cleaned from this noises. The g
February 07, 2024
Argentina: Milei’s First set of Laws Rejected in the Chamber of Deputies
February 7, 2024 12:53 PM UTC
JJavier Milei's ambitious deregulation laws for the Argentine economy faced rejection in the Chamber of Deputies, signaling challenges in negotiating with the current Congress. Milei's government must now revise its strategy, possibly focusing on less contentious issues. Despite setbacks, the govern
January 24, 2024
Argentina: Road to stabilization will be bumpy
January 24, 2024 9:38 PM UTC
Javier Milei's administration, despite securing an IMF deal, faces hurdles in stabilizing Argentina. Targeting a $10 billion increase in net reserves, equivalent to a quarter of the country's gross reserves, may prove overly ambitious. Contentious laws in Congress lack consensus, sparking opposition
Argentina: December CPI Data and IMF
January 24, 2024 2:47 PM UTC
Argentina's CPI surged in December due to a sharp exchange rate devaluation. The new government's bold fiscal measures aim to curb inflation, but potential contractionary effects and public reactions pose challenges. A $4 billion IMF disbursement supports their plan, diverging from past gradualism.
January 22, 2024
December 21, 2023
Argentina: Milei’s Emergency Decree Will Test Congress Support for His Agenda
December 21, 2023 1:58 PM UTC
Javier Milei's rapid push for Argentine economic deregulation faces its initial test in Congress. Proposing over 30 amendments, including repealing significant laws, Milei aims for a swift transition to a pro-market economy. With the Emergency decree requiring support from the fragmented Juntos por
December 15, 2023
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024
December 15, 2023 12:25 PM UTC
· We foresee Brazilian GDP growth decelerating in 2024, while we see Mexico continuing strong growth as a consequence of higher demand from U.S. and nearshoring. Argentina will see some growth in 2024 due to a lower basis of comparison and a better harvest in the agricultural sector.
·
December 14, 2023
Argentina: Tentative Shock Plan Announced
December 14, 2023 3:50 PM UTC
Argentina's Economic Minister, Luis Caputo, reveals pivotal economic reforms to tackle the nation's fiscal deficit. Key measures include currency devaluation, subsidy cuts, and ministry reduction. While aiming for a zero deficit, skepticism lingers, especially with unaddressed pension issues. The pl
November 24, 2023
LatAm: Long Term Growth Differences
November 24, 2023 11:52 AM UTC
In Latin America, distinctive long-term growth patterns are emerging. Brazil faces challenges of an aging population and constrained capital growth, aiming to return to pre-pandemic growth at 1.7%. Mexico anticipates growth through nearshoring, intensifying existing industries for a 2% long-term pro
November 22, 2023
El niño impacts on Latin America: a headwind for Brazil
November 22, 2023 11:30 AM UTC
El Niño, a climate pattern intensifying Pacific Ocean warmth, triggers varied impacts across Latin American economies. Severe droughts affect agriculture in some regions, while excessive rains benefit others but pose risks of flooding. Initiated in 2023, El Niño persists until 2024. In 2016-17, Br
November 20, 2023
Argentina: Javier Milei wins the Election, Uncertainty Mounts
November 20, 2023 1:26 PM UTC
Javier Milei's surprising victory in Argentina's election, securing 55.7% of votes, raises uncertainties about his governance strategy. Proposals for dollarization may impact the Peso, and a 3.0% fiscal deficit in 2023 poses challenges. Navigating opposition forces in Congress and renegotiating with
November 16, 2023
Argentina Elections Run-off: An Open Race
November 16, 2023 5:44 PM UTC
Argentina faces a critical election on November 19, with Javier Milei and Sergio Massa in contention. The victor confronts economic challenges, including a 142% inflation rate and a projected 2.2% GDP contraction. Political dynamics hinge on alliances, and market sentiment favor Milei, signalling po
November 14, 2023
Argentina CPI Review: Prices Freeze led to a slowdown on inflation
November 14, 2023 5:17 PM UTC
Argentina's CPI rose 8.3% in October, a slowdown from the prior 12.1%. Yet, the Yr/Yr CPI surged to 142.7%, the highest since 1991, with Core CPI at 150%. Communication, Household Goods, and Clothing led expenditure increases, surpassing 10% on the month, while Health (6.1%) and Education Services (
October 26, 2023
Argentina: Third Place Bulrich Announce Milei’s Support
October 26, 2023 3:13 PM UTC
Patricia Bullrich, from 'Juntos por el Cambio', has backed Javier Milei, diverging from her coalition. While Milei gains support, winning over Bullrich's voters remains a challenge. Despite economic instability favoring Milei, our projections still favor Sergio Massa to win with 60% probability. Fra
October 23, 2023
Argentina Elections: Massa Surprises and Will Dispute a Tight Run-off with Milei
October 23, 2023 4:03 PM UTC
Surprising election results in Argentina on Oct 22 saw Sergio Massa securing 37% of the votes, setting up a runoff against Javier Milei on Nov 19. Milei's victory prospects have diminished, as potential shifts in support from Bullrich to Massa loom. With a 60% chance of Massa winning, navigating thr
October 19, 2023
Argentina Elections Preview: Milei the Favourite but a Run-off will be Needed
October 19, 2023 4:10 PM UTC
Argentina is poised for a transformative election on October 22, with Javier Milei and Sergio Massa likely headed for a runoff. Milei's radical economic agenda faces practical obstacles, necessitating moderation. Despite these challenges, 2024 holds promise with improved agricultural prospects and a
August 29, 2023
Argentina: Pre-election Stimulus
August 29, 2023 7:41 AM UTC
Bottom line: The IMF has approved their review with Argentina, despite the country failing to meet most of the quantitative targets. Presidential candidate and Minister of the Economy Sergio Massa has approved a fiscal package benefiting workers and retirees which is likely to make it difficult to
August 22, 2023
Argentina: Post Primaries Devaluation
August 22, 2023 1:32 PM UTC
In the wake of Javier Milei's unexpected far-right victory in the Argentine Primaries, the government has introduced a sweeping package of measures, including a 21% devaluation aligned with IMF terms for a USD 7.5 billion disbursement. While aimed at countering inflation and boosting exports, doubts
August 14, 2023
Argentina Primaries: An Open Three Horses Race
August 14, 2023 8:12 PM UTC
Argentina recently held its national primary elections for the presidential race, yielding surprising results. Notably, the far-right candidate, Javier Milei, secured a significant victory by capturing 30% of the total votes. The center-right opposition coalition attained 28% of the votes, designati
July 31, 2023
Argentina: New Staff Level Agreement with IMF Reached
July 31, 2023 2:27 PM UTC
Due to the severe droughts faced in rural areas, the IMF has revised its current deal with Argentina, lowering the reserve accumulation targets for end 2023 and allowing Argentina to access USD 7.5 billion in the upcoming months. Due to the low level of FX reserves we believe severe import restricti
July 18, 2023
Argentina: Elections Shapes up
July 18, 2023 4:53 PM UTC
Argentina’s upcoming primary election will feature two candidates from the ruling coalition “Unión por la Patria” and two candidates from the opposition coalition “Juntos por el Cambio”, while Javier Milei will be the sole candidate for “La Libertad Avanza”. We expect the ruling coali