Argentina
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March 27, 2025
March 26, 2025
LatAm Outlook: Navigating the Uncertainty
March 26, 2025 9:56 PM UTC
· Brazil and Mexico economy are likely to decelerate in terms of growth in 2025, although we see this being stronger in Mexico. Mexico institutional reforms and its close ties with U.S. increases uncertainty for 2025, especially after Trump victory, and the menaces of Trump imposing tar
Outlook Overview: Navigating the Turbulence
March 26, 2025 9:30 AM UTC
· More tariffs will arrive from the U.S. from April with product (car, pharma, semiconductors and lumber) and reciprocal tariffs. President Trump has a 3-part approach to tariffs to raise (tax) revenue; bring production back to the U.S. and get fairer trade deals. This means some of t
March 12, 2025
Argentina: Fresh IMF Deal on the Pipeline
March 12, 2025 12:00 AM UTC
The Argentine government has issued an emergency decree to authorize a new IMF deal, potentially worth USD 20 billion, to pay off Treasury debt to the Central Bank. This deal includes a 4-year grace period and 10-year repayment terms. The government aims to stabilize reserves, delay debt amortizatio
March 05, 2025
February 27, 2025
Argentina: Recovery Complete?
February 27, 2025 2:32 PM UTC
Argentina’s economy showed signs of recovery in December, growing 0.5% m/m and 1.2% q/q in Q4, with a 4.7% annual increase. The banking and trade sectors saw strong growth, but construction and industry stagnated. Despite progress, challenges remain, including inflation above 2%, a current account
February 20, 2025
Argentina: Primary Surpluses Continues
February 20, 2025 6:18 PM UTC
Argentina’s fiscal anchor under Milei remains the key stabilizer, with inflation gradually declining and the crawling peg rate cut to 1% monthly. A primary surplus of USD 8 billion was achieved in 2024 through spending cuts, while capital controls and IMF support help manage low reserves. For 2025
February 14, 2025
Argentina CPI Review: January Relief but Inflation Fight Continues
February 14, 2025 7:05 PM UTC
Argentina’s CPI rose 2.2% in January, slightly below forecasts, with Y/Y inflation dropping to 84% from 116%. Core CPI increased by 2.4%, accumulating 75% annual inflation. Inflation is expected to decline as devaluation effects fade, though inertia may keep it above 2% in the first half. Services
February 06, 2025
Argentina: Lower Rates, Conditions to Lift the Controls
February 6, 2025 6:16 PM UTC
The Argentine Central Bank cut rates to 29%, citing improved inflation expectations. Rather than using a contractionary policy, it aims to curb monetary base growth through fiscal consolidation. Inflation is below 3%, with a 2% target feasible by mid-year. However, the 1% crawling peg risks eroding
January 22, 2025
Argentina: Adjusting the Anchor
January 22, 2025 2:40 PM UTC
Argentina is refining its monetary framework as inflation stabilizes below 3.0% (m/m), marking progress after double-digit levels. Key measures include halting Peso issuance, fiscal adjustments, sterilization to stabilize the monetary base, and diminishing the pace of depreciation of the official ex
December 30, 2024
December 24, 2024
December Outlook Webinar on Jan 7: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics
December 24, 2024 8:30 AM UTC
The U.S. economy’s momentum remains reasonable before the impact of President-elect Trump’s policies in 2025 and 2026. While high uncertainty exists on the scale and timing of policy, the strategic bias is clear – sizeable tax cuts that will boost the budget deficit; tariffs (threats
December 20, 2024
December 19, 2024
Outlook Overview: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics
December 19, 2024 9:25 AM UTC
· The U.S. economy momentum remains reasonable before President elect Trump’s policies impact in 2025 and 2026. While high uncertainty exists on the scale and timing of policies, the strategic bias is clear – sizeable tax cuts that will boost the budget deficit; tariffs (threats
December 18, 2024
LatAm Outlook: Economic Shifts
December 18, 2024 5:21 PM UTC
· Brazil and Mexico economy are likely to decelerate in terms of growth in 2025, although we see this being stronger in Mexico. Mexico legal reforms and its close ties with U.S. increases uncertainty for 2025, especially after Trump elections, although we see tariffs in 2025 as unlikely
Jan 7 Outlook Webinar: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics
December 18, 2024 1:23 PM UTC
The U.S. economy’s momentum remains reasonable before the impact of President-elect Trump’s policies in 2025 and 2026. While high uncertainty exists on the scale and timing of policy, the strategic bias is clear – sizeable tax cuts that will boost the budget deficit; tariffs (threats
December 06, 2024
November 13, 2024
Argentina CPI Review: Monthly Inflation Drops to 2.7%
November 13, 2024 3:09 PM UTC
Argentina's October CPI rose by 2.7%, hitting a three-year low and reducing the Y/Y inflation to 192%. Milei’s fiscal shock plan aims to curb inflation, with anticipated tariff adjustments potentially keeping inflation near 3% monthly in the next month. With inflation dropping Argentine government
October 22, 2024
Argentina: Milei’s Plan Going Smoothly
October 22, 2024 5:51 PM UTC
Since taking office, Milei's administration has focused on tackling Argentina's fiscal and monetary imbalances, implementing a shock fiscal plan to reduce expenditures by 4% in 2024. Fiscal surpluses have been recorded monthly, but the adjustment has caused three consecutive quarters of economic con
October 17, 2024
September 25, 2024
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts But How Far?
September 25, 2024 7:30 AM UTC
· The U.S. economy is slowing, with the critical question being whether this is a soft or harder landing. Our broad analysis leaves us inclined to the soft landing view into 2025, though we shall watch real sector data closely over the next 3-6 months to check the trajectory. Else
September 24, 2024
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Patterns
September 24, 2024 12:54 PM UTC
· Brazil and Mexico started to diverge in terms of growth. While we see Brazil GDP growing above 3.0% in 2024 (pushed by the internal demand), we see Mexico’s growth decelerating to 1.3%, due to weaker demand from U.S. and contractionary monetary policy. In 2025, we see Brazil growing
September 19, 2024
Argentina GDP Review: 1.7% Contraction in Q2
September 19, 2024 1:38 PM UTC
Argentina’s GDP contracted by 1.7% in Q2 2024, marking three consecutive quarters of decline, largely due to Milei’s economic reforms. While agriculture grew by 80%, industry and consumption sharply declined. A 4.9% contraction is expected for 2024, with limited recovery in 2025, far below gover
September 15, 2024
Sep 27 Outlook Webinar: Rate Cuts But How Far?
September 15, 2024 10:30 AM UTC
Uncertainty about whether the U.S. economy will have a soft or hard landing is growing as the market approaches Q4. This is shaping the debate regarding the scale of easing through the remainder of 2024 and 2025 by the Fed. European easing is underway, but how much further will central ba
September 12, 2024
Argentina CPI Review: 4.2% only in August
September 12, 2024 2:18 PM UTC
Argentina’s CPI rose 4.2% in August, surpassing market expectations, with Y/Y inflation falling to 236% from 260%. Public service tariff adjustments, particularly in Transport and Housing, were key inflation drivers. Food prices increased 3.5%, while goods CPI grew 3.2%, suggesting a slowing infla
August 22, 2024
Argentina: Economy Continues to Shrink
August 22, 2024 2:08 PM UTC
Argentina’s economy contracted by 0.3% in June (m/m), according to INDEC’s monthly activity indicator and, in quarterly terms, it will accumulate three consecutive quarter of contraction. Despite an 80% annual rise in agricultural activity due to base effects, other sectors like construction and
August 15, 2024
Argentina: CPI at 4.0% in July
August 15, 2024 2:52 PM UTC
Argentina's July CPI rose 4.0%, the lowest since January 2022, yet still above the 2% crawling peg, suggesting real exchange rate appreciation. Year-over-year CPI fell to 263% from 271% in June, with further declines anticipated. Despite some inflation reduction under Milei, price distortions and re
August 13, 2024
Argentina CPI Preview: Inflation Continues to Slowdown
August 13, 2024 12:57 PM UTC
On July 14 Argentina National Statistics Institute (INDEC) will release CPI data for July. Argentina's fiscal adjustment and zero ARS emissions strategy have eased inflation, reducing CPI growth from 20% in January to 3.5% in July. However, the crawling peg exchange rate policy and lack of internati
July 26, 2024
Argentina: Making Sense of the Three Stages Plan
July 26, 2024 2:51 PM UTC
The Central Bank of Argentina's plan for macroeconomic stabilization includes three stages: an orthodox fiscal exit, establishing an orthodox monetary framework, and prudently lifting FX controls. The fiscal deficit reduction has helped end the monetization of the deficit, while transitioning to a c
July 19, 2024
Argentina: Agriculture Drives Growth in May
July 19, 2024 1:10 PM UTC
The Argentine economy showed a 1.3% growth in May, driven mainly by the recovering agricultural sector, which is 100% higher than last year. However, other sectors like manufacturing and construction continue to lag. Despite the growth, economic recovery is uncertain due to fiscal adjustments, excha
July 15, 2024
Argentina: June CPI and Cleaning the Central Bank Balance
July 15, 2024 1:24 PM UTC
Argentina's CPI rose by 4.6% in June, up from 4.1% in May, missing market expectations of 5.1%. The Y/Y CPI fell to 271%. Housing items saw the highest increase at 14.2%, while core CPI growth slowed to 3.0%. Inflation may stabilize around 4.0% monthly. The Central Bank of Argentina's policies are m
July 12, 2024
June 25, 2024
Argentina GDP: Economy Shrinks 2.6% in the First Quarter
June 25, 2024 2:16 PM UTC
Argentina's GDP shrank by 2.6% in Q1, entering a technical recession. Investments and consumption dropped significantly, while agriculture grew. This contraction, driven by Milei's economic policies, is expected to continue in Q2, with rising unemployment and poverty. A slightly recovery is anticipa
Outlook Overview: Cyclical and Structural Forces
June 25, 2024 10:15 AM UTC
• The global economy is showing signs of healing, as inflation comes back towards targets and growth recovers momentum in some economies. Nevertheless, the cyclical headwind of lagged monetary tightening remains in DM countries, and will likely be one of the forces slowing the U.S. economy
June 24, 2024
LatAm Outlook: Pausing the Cuts
June 24, 2024 6:00 PM UTC
· Brazil and Mexico growth will decelerate from the growth rates in 2023. The stronger basis of comparisons in 2023 and the tight monetary policy will diminish growth during 2024. Brazil robust Agricultural growth will not repeat in 2023 while Mexico is on the limit of growing due to a
May 22, 2024
Argentina: Fourth Consecutive Month of Primary Surplus but It is Reducing
May 22, 2024 2:44 PM UTC
Argentina has delivered the fourth consecutive months of primary surplus. Most of this surplus comes from cutting the consumption of goods and services by the national administration and mainly by the pace of revenues growth which surpassed the growth of expenditures. However, the surpluses are redu
May 15, 2024
Argentina CPI Review: Monthly Inflation Drops to One Digit
May 15, 2024 12:18 PM UTC
Argentina's April CPI dropped to 8.8% after six months above 10%, with Y/Y CPI at 289%. Key rises included housing (+36%) and communication (+14.2%). Javier Milei's program and fiscal adjustments have reduced monetary emissions to zero, easing inflation. The Central Bank cut the policy rate to 40%.
April 26, 2024
Argentina: Activity is Shrinking but that is the Price to Stabilize
April 26, 2024 5:52 PM UTC
The INDEC data for February reveals a 0.2% economic shrinkage, signalling a 5.1% drop since August 2023, potentially leading to a Q1 2024 recession. High inflation and fiscal adjustments are primary causes. Some foresee 0% April inflation due to price realignment and stable ARS. Despite low reserves
April 18, 2024
April 14, 2024
Argentina CPI Review: Small Improvements Amid the Uncertainty
April 14, 2024 1:26 PM UTC
The INDEC's March CPI data reveals an 11.0% increase, down from February's 13.2%. Annually, Argentine CPI rose by 287% (Y/Y), with core CPI below 10%. Despite past shocks, we foresee continued monthly CPI slowdown. Argentina focuses on fiscal measures and on stabilize the exchange rate to accumulate
March 25, 2024
March 22, 2024
LatAm Outlook: Getting Deeper in the Cutting Cycle
March 22, 2024 7:04 PM UTC
· Brazil and Mexico growth will decelerate from the growth rates seen in 2023. The stronger basis of comparisons in 2023 and the tight monetary policy will diminish growth during 2024. Brazil robust agricultural growth will not repeat in 2024, while Mexico growth is restrained by a tigh
March 13, 2024
Argentina CPI Review: Inflation Eases in February to 13%, but it Still a Long Road
March 13, 2024 8:09 PM UTC
The February CPI release by Argentina's INDEC shows a slight ease in inflation to 13.8% (m/m), yet on an annual basis, it has soared to 276%, hitting a record high since the 1980s. Major increases were noted in Transport (21%), Food and Beverages (11%), and Housing (20%). While indicating initial im
February 15, 2024
Argentina: CPI grows 20.6% in January
February 15, 2024 1:26 PM UTC
Argentina's CPI surged in January, marking a 20.6% increase (m/m), the highest globally. Annual figures show a staggering 254% rise. The rise was influenced by the exchange rate devaluation and the release of controlled prices. Only in April we will probably see a CPI cleaned from this noises. The g
February 07, 2024
Argentina: Milei’s First set of Laws Rejected in the Chamber of Deputies
February 7, 2024 12:53 PM UTC
JJavier Milei's ambitious deregulation laws for the Argentine economy faced rejection in the Chamber of Deputies, signaling challenges in negotiating with the current Congress. Milei's government must now revise its strategy, possibly focusing on less contentious issues. Despite setbacks, the govern
January 24, 2024
Argentina: Road to stabilization will be bumpy
January 24, 2024 9:38 PM UTC
Javier Milei's administration, despite securing an IMF deal, faces hurdles in stabilizing Argentina. Targeting a $10 billion increase in net reserves, equivalent to a quarter of the country's gross reserves, may prove overly ambitious. Contentious laws in Congress lack consensus, sparking opposition
Argentina: December CPI Data and IMF
January 24, 2024 2:47 PM UTC
Argentina's CPI surged in December due to a sharp exchange rate devaluation. The new government's bold fiscal measures aim to curb inflation, but potential contractionary effects and public reactions pose challenges. A $4 billion IMF disbursement supports their plan, diverging from past gradualism.
January 22, 2024
December 21, 2023
Argentina: Milei’s Emergency Decree Will Test Congress Support for His Agenda
December 21, 2023 1:58 PM UTC
Javier Milei's rapid push for Argentine economic deregulation faces its initial test in Congress. Proposing over 30 amendments, including repealing significant laws, Milei aims for a swift transition to a pro-market economy. With the Emergency decree requiring support from the fragmented Juntos por
