U.S. Fed's Paulson - If policy is in the right place inflation will ease

August 4, 2026 12:17 PM UTC

Fed's Paulson backed keeping policy on hold but needs inflation to fall if she is to maintain that stance. 

Fed SLOOS on Bank Lending shows stronger demand for C+I loans

August 3, 2026 6:27 PM UTC

The Fed’s July Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey of bank lending practices suggests a positive picture for commercial and industrial loans, particularly for large firms, presumably led by AI, though elsewhere the survey presents a less impressive picture.

Fed SLOOS on Bank Lending shows stronger demand for C+I loans

August 3, 2026 6:27 PM UTC

The Fed’s July Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey of bank lending practices suggests a positive picture for commercial and industrial loans, particularly for large firms, presumably led by AI, though elsewhere the survey presents a less impressive picture.

U.S. Fed's Williams - Strongly supported latest FOMC decision

August 3, 2026 2:53 PM UTC

Remarks on Friday from Fed's Williams may take some of the heat off Chairman Warsh.

The Fed's Balance Sheet: Revolution or Recalibration

August 3, 2026 9:18 AM UTC

·       Fed chair Warsh has reopened the question of how the Federal Reserve implements monetary policy, not just the size of the balance sheet. The two go hand in hand.
·        The realistic choice is not between today's balance sheet and a return to 2006, but among several ways of o

EZ CPI and ECB Rate Prospects

July 31, 2026 9:16 AM UTC

•    The July provisional CPI provided no major surprise with the headline 2.9% Yr/Yr figure boosted by energy prices, but core at 2.5% and CPI ex energy unchanged at 2.2% Yr/Yr. Combined with the latest negotiated wage settlement data, we see no signs of 2nd round effects. For the ECB the dat

BoJ Review: As Expected

July 31, 2026 5:48 AM UTC

The BoJ keep rates unchanged at 1% in the July meeting 

BoJ Review: As Expected

July 31, 2026 5:47 AM UTC

The BoJ keep rates unchanged at 1% in the July meeting 

BOE: Split Does Not Mean September Hike

July 30, 2026 12:45 PM UTC

.   ·       Overall, the July MPC minutes and monetary policy report/press conference suggest that the MPC is not convinced of a September hike and a worsening of energy price rises and/or 2nd round effects would be required to shift the voting to a 25bps hike.  While the MPC has a hawkish

BOE: Split Does Not Mean September Hike

July 30, 2026 12:44 PM UTC

·       Overall, the July MPC minutes and monetary policy report/press conference suggest that the MPC is not convinced of a September hike and a worsening of energy price rises and/or 2nd round effects would be required to shift the voting to a 25bps hike.  While the MPC has a hawkish bias

FOMC - Warsh leaves markets confused

July 29, 2026 7:30 PM UTC

That this FOMC meeting showed a 9-3 vote for unchanged policy, with the dissents being for tightening, shows there was a case for tightening and a case for steady policy. However, the press conference from Chairman Warsh gave little insight on the nature of the debate, talking a lot about how the Fe

FOMC leaves rates unchanged with three hawkish dissents, Bank of Canada minutes a slightly hawkish lean

July 29, 2026 6:17 PM UTC

The FOMC has left rates unchanged as we expected, in a 9-3 vote, with three hawkish dissents for a 25bps tightening, from Cleveland Fed’s Hammack, Dallas Fed’s Logan and Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari. We had expected only the first two of the three dissents, but Kashkari’s is not a major shock.

Europe data week ahead: August 3-7

July 29, 2026 9:49 AM UTC

Only 2nd and 3rd tier releases in EZ/UK in 1st week of August. 

BoJ Preview: More Hawkish Forward Guidance?

July 29, 2026 2:00 AM UTC

The BoJ will keep rates unchanged at 1% in the July meeting 

BoJ Preview: More Hawkish Forward Guidance?

July 29, 2026 1:30 AM UTC

The BoJ will keep rates unchanged at 1% in the July meeting 

DM Data Week Ahead: July 27-30

July 24, 2026 2:33 PM UTC

Key events are Fed and BOE meeting, though BOJ will also attract attention,  Key data is Q2 U.S. GDP. 

Trump: Tariffs 2.0

July 24, 2026 7:16 AM UTC

•    Replacing section 122 at 10% with section 301 at 10-12.5% is unlikely to have much lasting economic impact in itself.  However, the Trump administration are also undertaking section 301 investigation against 16 countries on excess production, with the report and new tariffs expected in A

ECB: September Hike 50% Probability?

July 23, 2026 1:41 PM UTC

·       Lagarde disclosed that some ECB board members considered a hike at today’s meeting and she noted that the consensus was to wait for incoming data before the September 10 meeting and then reassess. This clearly signals that the September meeting will seriously consider a 25bps hike,

BOE Preview: Hawkish Noises

July 22, 2026 6:12 AM UTC

•    The BOE will likely maintain a hawkish bias on July 30, but are unlikely to signal a September hike. The June CPI did not really change this picture, with the core unchanged at 2.6%. Though BOE Bailey recently noted the unstable process (in the Straits of Hormuz and for energy prices), he

BOE Preview After CPI: Hawkish Noises

July 22, 2026 6:11 AM UTC

•    The BOE will likely maintain a hawkish bias on July 30, but are unlikely to signal a September hike. The June CPI did not really change this picture, with the core unchanged at 2.6%. Though BOE Bailey recently noted the unstable process (in the Straits of Hormuz and for energy prices), he

UK Fiscal Policy and the New Chancellor

July 21, 2026 6:18 AM UTC

·       Apprehension will exist until the Autumn budget, despite a repeated commitment by PM Burnham to stick to the fiscal rules.  Spending commitments are clearer than tax raises measures, while new Chancellor Healey may not be strong enough to curtail spending pressures.  This could mean

Economic Data and Events Week Ahead July 20-24

July 17, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

The highlight of the week comes from the ECB meeting and press conference, although we do not expect it to provide much guidance regarding September, sticking to the non-pre-commit language, to keep options open depending on data and geopolitical developments. 
The UK has its busy week, but data is

ECB: Bark No Bite

July 17, 2026 7:05 AM UTC

·       The vigilance mantra means that the ECB will still have a broad caution against 2nd round effects and the risks that energy prices could push higher.  We feel that the June inflation data, plus the prospect that Iran/U.S. could call a new truce (here) will be enough to make most on t

U.S. Fed's Logan wants modestly higher rates, Schmid also hawkish

July 16, 2026 9:06 PM UTC

Fed's Logan looks set to vote for a tightening this month, though we expect that will be a dissenting vote. Fed's Schmid is also sounding hawkish, but he does not have a vote this year. 

UK GDP and BOE Question

July 16, 2026 6:23 AM UTC

·       UK GDP rose 0.1% in May as expected, helped by services but with softness remaining in other areas.  H2 will depend on businesses and consumers, where a BOE rate hike would dent sentiment and spending – we look for no change in policy rates in 2026 however, followed by 2027 cuts. A

U.S. Fed's Cook - Prudent to wait a bit for inflation to slow

July 15, 2026 5:27 PM UTC

Fed's Cook is not yet ready to tighten, but sees risks as having shifted towards higher inflation.

FOMC Preview for July 29: Unchanged policy with an unspoken tightening bias

July 15, 2026 3:52 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on July 29 in a meeting that will see no update to the dots or economic forecasts. With forward guidance now becoming limited all meetings should be seen as live, but after softer than expected June non-farm payroll and more importantly CPI data, a change in policy looks unlikely at t

Bank of Canada - Near term policy change looks less likely

July 15, 2026 3:45 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected and while expressing increased optimism over the Canadian economy, does not appear in any hurry to change rates. The statement did state the BoC was prepared to adjust policy as needed but explicit mentions of the possibility of moves in e

Canada: BoC's Macklem - More confident on Canadian economy, in no hurry to move rates

July 15, 2026 2:05 PM UTC

After leaving rates unchanged BoC Governor Macklem is expressing increased confidence in Canada's economy but does not suggest any urgency to tighten policy. 

U.S. Fed's Goolsbee - Want to seee more soft CPIs

July 14, 2026 5:35 PM UTC

Fed hawk Goolsbee is only cautiously encouraged by today's soft CPI. 

FOMC Preview for July 29: Unchanged policy with an unspoken tightening bias

July 14, 2026 5:14 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on July 29 in a meeting that will see no update to the dots or economic forecasts. With forward guidance now becoming limited all meetings should be seen as live, but after softer than expected June non-farm payroll and more importantly CPI data, a change in policy looks unlikely at t

U.S. June CPI - Some volatile moves, but a clear relief for the Fed

July 14, 2026 1:12 PM UTC

June CPI is significantly softer than expected, both on the -0.4% headline and an unchanged outcome ex food and energy, with the respective figures before rounding being -0.422% and -0.017%. While there are a number of volatile declines in the breakdown and recent events in the Middle East present r

Iran/U.S.: A New War or Escalating to Deescalate?

July 14, 2026 10:40 AM UTC

·       Our baseline remains that the MOU will hold and that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen.  Iran can be pressured economically by the U.S. naval blockade being re-established. Additionally, President Trump loves to escalate to de-escalate to get a deal.  This is a 60% probability scenar