DM Central Banks
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October 02, 2026
U.S. September Employment - Trend looking subdued again
October 2, 2026 1:12 PM UTC
September’s non-farm payroll at 23k, 46k private, with negative back revisions, is weaker than expected and returns the picture to near flat after the stronger August. Average hourly earnings are slowing, up only 0.1%, though the rise in unemployment to 4.2% from 4.1% is on a rise in the labor for
U.S. September Employment - Trend looking subdued again
October 2, 2026 1:12 PM UTC
September’s non-farm payroll at 23k, 46k private, with negative back revisions, is weaker than expected and returns the picture to near flat after the stronger August. Average hourly earnings are slowing, up only 0.1%, though the rise in unemployment to 4.2% from 4.1% is on a rise in the labor for
EZ Inflation Jumps - Still Energy Driven
October 2, 2026 10:34 AM UTC
Although headline inflation for September was higher than expected at 3.8%, when consensus forecast 3.2%, the narrative does not change. This is still an energy driven increase in inflation. The breakdown of overall inflation into major components showed that energy was the largest contributor to th
EZ Inflation Jumps - Still Energy Driven
October 2, 2026 10:33 AM UTC
Although headline inflation for September was higher than expected at 3.8%, when consensus forecast 3.2%, the narrative does not change. This is still an energy driven increase in inflation. The breakdown of overall inflation into major components showed that energy was the largest contributor to th
October 01, 2026
France’s Fiscal and Political Challenges Grow. Could Le Pen Fix It?
October 1, 2026 4:08 PM UTC
France’s 10-year borrowing costs have climbed above 4.9%, reaching their highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) with the OAT/Bund spread widening to around 130bps, the highest level for 14 years. The combination of intense domestic political fragmentation, rising fiscal concern
France’s Fiscal and Political Challenges Grow. Could Le Pen Fix It?
October 1, 2026 4:08 PM UTC
France’s 10-year borrowing costs have climbed above 4.9%, reaching their highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) with the OAT/Bund spread widening to around 130bps, the highest level for 14 years. The combination of intense domestic political fragmentation, rising fiscal concern
September 30, 2026
U.S. Trimmed Mean and Median PCE Price Indices slower in August
September 30, 2026 5:22 PM UTC
The Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE price index at 1.92% annualized in August is similar to July’s and the third straight month below 2.0%. Yr/yr growth of 2.19% is down from 2.28% in both June and July and the slowest since August 2021.
September 29, 2026
EZ HICP Review: Higher Inflation Ahead. How Will the ECB Respond?
September 29, 2026 4:27 PM UTC
Headline annual inflation is likely to increase again in September given the push from higher oil and gas prices. CPI numbers from member countries such as Spain already point to a likely strong jump in the EZ September while the increase in the European Commission Selling Prices indicator also back
EZ HICP Review: Higher Inflation Ahead. How Will the ECB Respond?
September 29, 2026 4:26 PM UTC
Headline annual inflation is likely to increase again in September given the push from higher oil and gas prices. CPI numbers from member countries such as Spain already point to a likely strong jump in the EZ September while the increase in the European Commission Selling Prices indicator also back
September 28, 2026
FOMC Minutes Preview: Likely to be hawkish, but October decision still data-dependent
September 28, 2026 4:37 PM UTC
The public comments of Fed speakers since the September 16 meeting delivered a unanimous vote to tighten suggest that the minutes of that meeting, due on October 7, will have a hawkish tone. Recent hawkish Fed talk reduces the risk that the proximity of the midterm elections will prevent a tightenin
FOMC Minutes Preview: Likely to be hawkish, but October decision still data-dependent
September 28, 2026 4:36 PM UTC
The public comments of Fed speakers since the September 16 meeting delivered a unanimous vote to tighten suggest that the minutes of that meeting, due on October 7, will have a hawkish tone. Recent hawkish Fed talk reduces the risk that the proximity of the midterm elections will prevent a tightenin
September 25, 2026
SNB: Keeps Rates Unchanged - in no Rush to Hike
September 25, 2026 11:06 AM UTC
Yesterday’s announcement left the SNB on hold at 0% while nudging its inflation forecast modestly upwards and dialling down its threat of intervention as a weakening in the Franc prompted it to pivot towards more vigilance on inflation. The market expects the SNB to hike early next year but we see
SNB: Keeps Rates Unchanged - in no Rush to Hike
September 25, 2026 11:05 AM UTC
Yesterday’s announcement left the SNB on hold at 0% while nudging its inflation forecast modestly upwards and dialling down its threat of intervention as a weakening in the Franc prompted it to pivot towards more vigilance on inflation. The market expects the SNB to hike early next year but we see
September 24, 2026
Norges Bank hikes by 25bp
September 24, 2026 9:41 AM UTC
Norges bank increased rates by 25bp to 4.5% citing concerns over the inflation outlook. While the Bank noted that underlying inflation had moderated over the summer and was actually lower than they had expected in June, the outlook for inflation had not materially changed given the backdrop of highe
Norges Bank hikes by 25bp
September 24, 2026 9:40 AM UTC
Norges bank increased rates by 25bp to 4.5% citing concerns over the inflation outlook. While the Bank noted that underlying inflation had moderated over the summer and was actually lower than they had expected in June, the outlook for inflation had not materially changed given the backdrop of highe
Riksbank: December Hike
September 24, 2026 8:22 AM UTC
· The Riksbank statement guidance that the 1st hike could be delivered in December is important. It suggests that the Riksbank now see modest tightening as highly likely and going in December rather than Q1 2027 would have a strong signal effect. This would also avoid too much Swedi
Riksbank: December Hike
September 24, 2026 8:22 AM UTC
· The Riksbank statement guidance that the 1st hike could be delivered in December is important. It suggests that the Riksbank now see modest tightening as highly likely and going in December rather than Q1 2027 would have a strong signal effect. This would also avoid too much Swedi
September 23, 2026
Outlook Overview: Navigation Into 2027
September 23, 2026 2:30 PM UTC
· The hot phase of the Iran war is over, but the intermittent conflict between the U.S. and Iran is stopping shipping via the Straits of Hormuz from fully recovering and keeping energy prices elevated. Some DM and EM central banks are guarding against 2nd round effects with modest tig
EZ PMIs Show Ongoing Growth Momentum in Q3
September 23, 2026 8:42 AM UTC
The S&P flash Eurozone PMI signalled a quickening in the pace of activity during September with the composite index rising to 53.1 from 52 before and boosted by rapid gains in the service sector and ongoing growth in the manufacturing sector. With September’s number now in hand the PMIs point to E
EZ PMIs Show Ongoing Growth Momentum in Q3
September 23, 2026 8:42 AM UTC
The S&P flash Eurozone PMI signalled a quickening in the pace of activity during September with the composite index rising to 53.1 from 52 before and boosted by rapid gains in the service sector and ongoing growth in the manufacturing sector. With September’s number now in hand the PMIs point to E
DM Rates Outlook: Long-term challenges, but selective short-term value
September 23, 2026 6:15 AM UTC
*Overweight gilts for 2027, focusing on intermediates. Large ‘policy uncertainty’ premium offers value on any less adverse Middle East scenario.
* Treasuries may offer tactical opportunity into weakness over Q4 2026-Q1 2027, with US10s projected back towards 4½% in respite. Longer term issues re
September 22, 2026
U.S. Outlook: Growth Overly Dependent on AI
September 22, 2026 1:34 PM UTC
• The US economy is currently showing signs of acceleration with business investment strong led by AI and consumer spending outperforming real disposable income, in part because of AI-assisted strength in equities. We expect continued strength in business investment though a modest slowing
DM ex U.S.: Weathering Higher Energy Prices
September 22, 2026 1:22 PM UTC
· EZ. We expect the Eurozone economy to remain resilient in coming quarters despite the ongoing energy shock. Household consumption growth should strengthen into 2027, supported by a recovery in real wage growth and by favourable employment increases. Increased defence and infrastructur
September 18, 2026
BOJ: Future Policy Rate Hikes
September 18, 2026 7:16 AM UTC
· BOJ voted 7-2 for a 25bps hike to 1.25%, but neither the statement or Ueda press conference suggest a pick-up in the tightening pace. The economy and inflation remain more important than the JPY in BOJ decisions. The lagged feedthrough of the Iran war energy price shocks points to f
BOJ: Future Policy Rate Hikes
September 18, 2026 7:15 AM UTC
· BOJ voted 7-2 for a 25bps hike to 1.25%, but neither the statement or Ueda press conference suggest a pick-up in the tightening pace. The economy and inflation remain more important than the JPY in BOJ decisions. The lagged feedthrough of the Iran war energy price shocks points to f
September 17, 2026
BOE Keeps Rates Unchanged but November Meeting a Close Call
September 17, 2026 12:29 PM UTC
As expected, the BOE kept rates unchanged with the committee voting 6-3 in favour of staying at 3.75%. MPC members Green, Mann and Pill voted to increase rates by 25bp, as they did in July. Today’s monetary policy statement is essentially unchanged from the July statement, with the focus still on
BOE Keeps Rates Unchanged but November Meeting a Close Call
September 17, 2026 12:26 PM UTC
As expected, the BOE kept rates unchanged with the committee voting 6-3 in favour of staying at 3.75%. MPC members Green, Mann and Pill voted to increase rates by 25bp, as they did in July. Today’s monetary policy statement is essentially unchanged from the July statement, with the focus still on
September 16, 2026
FOMC - Further tightening likely if data holds up
September 16, 2026 7:48 PM UTC
The Fed’s 25bps tightening was as we expected but a lack of any dovish dissenting votes was not. The Fed’s dots were more hawkish than we expected. While we have a somewhat more dovish view of the economy that the Fed, we have updated our Fed forecast, now expecting one more move this year, in D
FOMC - Further tightening likely if data holds up
September 16, 2026 7:47 PM UTC
The Fed’s 25bps tightening was as we expected but a lack of any dovish dissenting votes was not. The Fed’s dots were more hawkish than we expected. While we have a somewhat more dovish view of the economy that the Fed, we have updated our Fed forecast, now expecting one more move this year, in D
UK CPI Higher in August But as Expected
September 16, 2026 7:20 AM UTC
Headline inflation increased to 3.1% in August from 2.9% before and in line with expectations with the largest upward contribution coming from transport and in particularly motor fuels. The figures are not a surprise given that July’s short-lived dip in petrol and diesel prices were reversed in
UK CPI Higher in August But as Expected
September 16, 2026 7:20 AM UTC
Headline inflation increased to 3.1% in August from 2.9% before and in line with expectations with the largest upward contribution coming from transport and in particularly motor fuels. The figures are not a surprise given that July’s short-lived dip in petrol and diesel prices were reversed in
September 15, 2026
Back at 5%: Unpacking the US Treasury selloff
September 15, 2026 2:55 PM UTC
* USTs revisit the big psychological level after big selloff
* Sep move has been mainly policy led, with the curve responding
* Longer term trend has been a real risk premium story – with real rates backup led by additional risk/compensation/reduced scarcity effects. Breakeven inflation expectatio
September 14, 2026
Canada August CPI - Near consensus, but upside risks building
September 14, 2026 1:00 PM UTC
August’s Canadian CPI was stable at 3.0% yr/yr as expected with the Bank of Canada’s core rates broadly stable too. However the seasonally adjusted ex food and energy CPI (not one of the BoC’s core rates) saw a fourth straight 0.3% increase, and its yr/yr rate is picking up. Inflationary ris
UK CPI Preview: Headline Inflation to Increase on Higher Energy Costs but no Second Round Effects
September 14, 2026 9:24 AM UTC
· Inflation figures will come ahead of BoE meeting on September 17 in which the Bank is expected to keep rates on hold. Headline annual inflation rose to 2.9% in July and is forecast to increase to 3.1% in August with core also ticking up to 2.7% from 2.6% previously. The numbers are un
UK CPI Preview: Headline Inflation to Increase on Higher Energy Costs but no Second Round Effects
September 14, 2026 9:22 AM UTC
· Inflation figures will come ahead of BoE meeting on September 17 in which the Bank is expected to keep rates on hold. Headline annual inflation rose to 2.9% in July and is forecast to increase to 3.1% in August with core also ticking up to 2.7% from 2.6% previously. The numbers are un
September 11, 2026
FOMC Preview for September 16: Recent data back Warsh tightening hints
September 11, 2026 2:36 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on September 16 and after some recent firm data, particularly August’s core CPI, a 25bps tightening to a 3.75% - 4.0% Fed Funds target range now looks likely. However, the CPI upside surprise came in only a few components and some dovish dissents are still possible, though Chairman
FOMC Preview for September 16: Recent data back Warsh tightening hints
September 11, 2026 2:36 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on September 16 and after some recent firm data, particularly August’s core CPI, a 25bps tightening to a 3.75% - 4.0% Fed Funds target range now looks likely. However, the CPI upside surprise came in only a few components and some dovish dissents are still possible, though Chairman
U.S. August CPI - Telephone services, air fares and hotels lift the core rate
September 11, 2026 1:08 PM UTC
August CPI is not a shocker at 0.4% overall, but the core rate of 0.3% ex food and energy is above expectations and where the Fed would like it to be and suggests tightening on September 16 is now likely. Before rounding core CPI rose by 0.29% and overall CPI by 0.396%. Telephone services are the ma
U.S. August CPI - Telephone services, air fares and hotels lift the core rate
September 11, 2026 1:07 PM UTC
August CPI is not a shocker at 0.4% overall, but the core rate of 0.3% ex food and energy is above expectations and where the Fed would like it to be and suggests tightening on September 16 is now likely. Before rounding core CPI rose by 0.29% and overall CPI by 0.396%. Telephone services are the ma
QT: BOE Slowdown But Not BOJ/ECB Yet
September 11, 2026 11:50 AM UTC
· The BOE will likely slow the pace of QT to GBP50bln pa at the September 17 MPC meeting, but the BOJ/ECB have no current plans to slow QT. The BOJ QT at 6% of GDP is huge and pushing up JGB yields and the BOJ could slow the pace over the winter into the spring once the next 25bps pol
UK GDP Growth defies expectations in July but expected to slow ahead
September 11, 2026 7:53 AM UTC
Contrary to expectations, the UK economy grew by 0.4% in July (on a month-on-month basis) against a forecast of zero growth. Activity during the month was driven by services (0.4%), production (0.2%) and construction (0.1%). The sector breakdown shows that growth in the services sector was driven pa