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May 22, 2026
Europe: Anti-Immigration Vs More Negative Demographics
May 22, 2026 8:12 AM UTC
A significant demographic tremor is gaining speed and breadth - globally. Just as politics – certainly in the west - is framed around ending or at least reducing and controlling immigration, it seems that the populists at the helm of such thinking are not considering the ramifications of such a
May 21, 2026
Eurozone: PMI Slump Shows Energy Surge Constraining Activity, Not Just Hitting Costs
May 21, 2026 8:36 AM UTC
Once again surprising on the downside flash Eurozone Composite PMI fell to 47.5 in May from 48.8 in April and below the 50.0 no-change mark for the second successive month. The latest reading thereby signalled a further and steeper m/m reduction in business activity, was the sharpest since October 2
May 20, 2026
FOMC Minutes from April 29: Hawkish concerns appear broadly felt
May 20, 2026 6:54 PM UTC
FOMC minutes from April 29 show a hawkish leaning, confirming market perceptions that there was more interest in removing an easing bias from the language than revealed by the three hawkish dissents at the meeting. Should inflation remain persistent, tightening could come onto the agenda, though sho
UK CPI Review: Inflation Falls Broadly But A Calm Before the Storm?
May 20, 2026 6:42 AM UTC
What are energy induced price rises are now very evident, even more so in the latest PPI data very much contrasting with the more benign picture in April’s more closely watched CPI figures. Thus, having seen headline CPI jump to 3.3% in March and where services rose to 4.5% on the back if what may
May 19, 2026
Canada April CPI - Excluding energy inflation is falling
May 19, 2026 12:59 PM UTC
April Canadian CPI is clearly softer than expected, with the acceleration to 2.8% yr/yr from 2.5% due to a drop in the year ago base due to the abolition of the carbon tax. Current energy strength is being offset by weakness elsewhere. The Bank of Canada’s three core rates are all softer, with CPI
ECB: Not the Only Game in Town – But A Time for Hair Shirts?
May 19, 2026 11:22 AM UTC
When hearing ECB Council policy thinking one can get the impression that it sees only a direct link from changes in its policy rate to inflation rather than the latter succumbing to a range of factors, this being the transmission mechanism. Most important of course is the economic damage that chan
UK Labor Market: Core Wage Pressures hit New Cycle -Low as Jobs Growth into Sharp Reverse
May 19, 2026 6:56 AM UTC
Even more clearly, there are further signs that the labor market is haemorrhaging jobs both clearly and broadly with fresh falls in the more authoritative measure of jobs covering payrolls. Indeed, private sector payrolls are still falling, down over 0.8 ppt in y/y terms with the m/m drop the larg
May 15, 2026
Middle East Conflict: U.S. Helping Chinese Whispers?
May 15, 2026 11:26 AM UTC
In hosting President Trump this week, China feels it is vying, if not achieving, parity with the U.S. as the world’s superpowers; from China’s perspective, it regards Russia similarly. It does seem as if China’s goal at this summit was to get more effective flexibility in shaping Taiwan’
May 14, 2026
UK GDP Review: GDP Upside Surprises Continue, Correction Due or Fresh Trend?
May 14, 2026 6:59 AM UTC
Perhaps it is a supreme irony that just as the Labour government tears itself apart after disastrous election results last week, the actual real economy continues to surprise on the upside. Notably, since taking office in July 2024, the economy has grown a cumulative 2%-plus, ie over 1% per year.?
May 13, 2026
Bank of Canada Minutes from April 29 - Tightening a real risk if oil fails to fall as assumed
May 13, 2026 6:11 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada has released minutes from the April 29 meeting, which are likely to maintain market fears that should oil prices remain elevated, the BoC will tighten later in the year. However, on a central scenario more in line with that of the BoC, we continue to see the BoC remaining on hold
May 12, 2026
U.S. April CPI - Subdued ex food, energy and what looks like one-time strength in shelter
May 12, 2026 1:08 PM UTC
April CPI is only marginally stronger than expected on the core rate, up by 0.4%, 0.376% before rounding, and the data not alarming outside of a one-time distortion in housing. The headline gain of 0.6% was as expected, and here the rise was a little firmer at 0.64% before rounding.
UK CPI Preview (May 20): Inflation Sedate For Now But Wages Still on the Wane?
May 12, 2026 12:05 PM UTC
What are energy induced price rises are now very evident, most notably in PPI data as well as the more closely watched CPI figures. Thus after a stable 3.0% (a 10-mth low) February’s headline – matching the consensus, headline CPI jumped to 3.3% in March. Services, however, rose from 4.3% a fo
May 08, 2026
Canada April Employment - Weak data suggests little case for tightening
May 8, 2026 1:36 PM UTC
Canada’s April employment report with a 6-month high of 6.9% for unemployment following two straight months at 6.7%, and a fall of 17.7k in employment, is clearly a weak one and suggests there is little case for the Bank of Canada to consider tightening as long as core inflation shows no clear fee
U.S. April Employment - Resilience should keep easing off the near term agenda
May 8, 2026 1:04 PM UTC
April’s non-farm payroll suggests the US economy continues to grow at a respectable pace in early Q2 with no signs of a hit from the oil shock yet. Payrolls increased by a stronger than expected 115k, with unemployment stable at 4.3% and the workweek stronger at 34.3 hours from 34.2. Average hourl
Eurozone: In Dire Straits?
May 8, 2026 10:55 AM UTC
Amid all the concern about the energy-induced surge in inflation resulting from the Middle East conflict, the impact on EZ real economy looks to be sizeable and growing. High profile PMI numbers are flashing alarmingly, but the message from the April composite (at a 17-mth low) may actually be not
May 07, 2026
Norges Bank Review: Pre-Emptive Price Pessimism
May 7, 2026 10:41 AM UTC
It may not have been a close call, but amid what were divided market expectations, the Norges Bank hiked afresh by 25 bp (to 4.25%), the first such move in two years. Admittedly, it had given a clear pointer in March of at least one rate hike probable in the next couple of months but we had though
Sweden Riksbank Review: Fresh Tightening Bias But Mildly So?
May 7, 2026 8:22 AM UTC
It is always notable how quickly things can change, especially when it is external events that precipitate a shift in the backdrop and outlook. Notably, with inflation (Figure 1) and real economy numbers having undershot both the Norges Bank and consensus expectations, the Riksbank might have been
Straits of Hormuz Scenarios
May 7, 2026 6:25 AM UTC
· Our new baseline (70% probability) is for the Straits of Hormuz to start to partially reopen by June/July based on a framework deal between Iran and the U.S. This means more elevated oil prices in Q2, but then a gradual reduction in WTI to USD85 end-2026 and USD75 end 2027. The al
May 05, 2026
UK GDP Preview (May 14): March GDP Drop Expected, Correction or Fresh Trend?
May 5, 2026 10:16 AM UTC
Before the outbreak of the Iran War there was already a split within the MPC about the policy outlook and that such divisions may have been accentuated by the much stronger than expected February GDP update which showed a m/m rise of 0.5%, the strongest in 14 months. This is likely to have been ab
U.S. Labour: In Praise of Older Workers
May 5, 2026 8:32 AM UTC
· While financial pressures are prompting U.S. workers to delay retirement and work longer, this is not being realized due to deteriorating health/labour market skills mismatches and other issues. More work from older workers is unlikely to be the solution to shrinking net immigration.
May 04, 2026
May 01, 2026
U.S. Fed's Kashkari, Hammack and Logan explain their hawkish dissents
May 1, 2026 2:42 PM UTC
The three hawkish dissents at the latest meeting were against an easing bias. Kashkari seems the most hawkish, with a leaning to tightening. Hammack and Logan both noted resilence in activity data as well as infltionary risk. There was a dovish dissent from Miran, but he will leave the Fed once Wars
Norges Bank Preview (May 7): A Close Call?
May 1, 2026 12:31 PM UTC
The next Norges Bank decision next Thursday will be a close call, not least after the clear pointer from the Board in March that at least one rate hike looms in the next couple of months. While we acknowledge the hawkish and active manner of the Board we adhere to a stable policy decision outlook
April 30, 2026
ECB Review: ECB Mixed Communications
April 30, 2026 2:01 PM UTC
· Overall, the June and July meetings have live risks that the ECB could undertake a modest 25bps hike. If a partial reopening of the Straits of Hormuz occurs then the ECB will likely keep hawkish, but not actually hike. We feel that the ECB is overestimating natural gas prices, whi
BoE Review: MPC Playing Its Cards Safely (For Now)?
April 30, 2026 12:29 PM UTC
Very clearly, the BoE kept rates on hold with the MPC last month and the same decision was both expected and delivered this time around but with only token fresh dissent, with Chief Economist Pill wanting an immediate hike from the current 3.75%. But splits were more evident in the individual MPC
Eurozone GDP & HICP Review: Fragile Resilience?
April 30, 2026 9:30 AM UTC
We continue to be critical of the ECB assertion (at least before the Iran War) that the EZ economy was in a ‘good place’. This to us was too backward looking and amid some signs in both hard, soft and monetary data, that the economy going into the last quarter was soft and fragile. Indeed, f
Sweden Riksbank Preview (May 7): On Hold and Most Likely Still For Some Time
April 30, 2026 6:32 AM UTC
Sweden sees the next Riksbank verdict on May 7, a decision that will not come with fresh official projections. But with inflation (Figure 1) and real economy numbers having undershot both its and consensus expectations, the Riksbank might have been contemplating a fresh easing at this juncture if no
April 29, 2026
FOMC - Easing call moved to December from September
April 29, 2026 7:58 PM UTC
The Fed is now entering a transition from Chairman Powell to Chairman Warsh, who looks set to be in place at the next meeting on June 17. The final meeting of Powell’s term saw three hawkish dissents on the language and Powell announce he will continue as Governor after his term as Chair ends. We
FOMC keeps rates on hold but three of four dissents are hawkish
April 29, 2026 6:23 PM UTC
The main surprise in the FOMC statement was the number of dissents, one dovish, Miran continuing to call for a 25bps easing, and three hawkish, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan in agreement with the decision to leave rates unchanged but objecting to the inclusion of an easing bias.
Bank of Canada - Policy seen appropriate under baseline assumptions, but risk may lean to upside
April 29, 2026 3:25 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected and Governor Macklem sees policy as appropriate under a BoC baseline that assumes oil prices evolves according to market expectations and US tariff rates remaining unchanged. This supports our view for steady BoC policy through 2026, thoug
UK Political Risk – Bad Things Come in Threes?
April 29, 2026 12:12 PM UTC
The biggest set of elections since the 2024 general election takes place on 7 May in the UK. Already, UK markets are fretting about the possible outcome, in particular that serious electoral damage to the Labour Party currently running the government could make it swing more to left and dilute fis
April 28, 2026
Eurozone: Even Tighter Corporate Credit Standards Continues and More Loans Applications Rejected
April 28, 2026 8:51 AM UTC
Given the ever clearer fall-out from the conflict in the Gulf, it was hardly a surprise of even tighter credit standards (Figure 1), thereby merely accentuating trends in the four previous Bank Lending Surveys (BLS). At least as far as firms and especially consumers seeking credit are concerned, t
April 27, 2026
Straits of Hormuz Standoff and Mixed Markets
April 27, 2026 9:02 AM UTC
• Equities longer time horizon means that they are hoping for a reopening of the Straits of Hormuz (though also being helped by renewed AI optimism), whereas government bond markets actually want to see tangible progress and an associated tempering of DM central banks posturing. This dive
April 24, 2026
BoE Preview (Apr 30) Divided Again But Unmoved (For Now)?
April 24, 2026 9:34 AM UTC
Very clearly, the BoE kept rates on hold with the MPC unanimous last month and the same decision is expected this time around but with probable fresh dissent, with up to 2-3 members opting for an immediate hike. These splits will be even more evident in the individual MPC member statements (as exp
April 23, 2026
ECB Preview (Apr 30): Real Economy Buckling Already!
April 23, 2026 12:21 PM UTC
We again expect no change from the ECB on Apr 30, but President Lagarde will probably have to admit in the Q&A that unlike last time the decision was not unanimous. Overall, the communication will again suggest upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth the extent and durati
April 22, 2026
Bank of Canada Preview for April 29: No hawkish shift from energy price shock
April 22, 2026 5:28 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on April 29 and looks set to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. A quarterly Monetary Policy Report is due but given uncertainty the BoC may deliver a range of scenarios rather than an updated forecast. Despite the upside risks to overall inflation, recent subdued economic activ
FOMC Preview for April 29: Uncertainty keeping the Fed on hold
April 22, 2026 2:29 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on April 29 and there is little risk of a change in rates from the current target range of 3.5-3.75%. High uncertainty, both on the geopolitical situation and the future of the Fed, suggests there will be little forward guidance, and the dots will not be updated until the next meeting
Iran Conflict – Who Has the ‘Trump’ Card
April 22, 2026 9:17 AM UTC
When Trump aspires to reaching a deal, he thinks in either black or white. But whether it be political, economic or military the reality is that the world is always various shades of grey. This is very much evident in the way the Iran conflict was planned by the U.S. – the expected clear and r
UK CPI Review: Inflation Being Fuelled But Wages Still on the Wane?
April 22, 2026 6:35 AM UTC
What are energy induced price rises are now very evident, most notably in PPI data as well as the more closely watched CPI figures. Thus after a stable 3.0% (a 10-mth low) February’s headline – matching the consensus, headline CPI jumped to 3.3% in March. Services, however, rose from 4.3% a fo
April 21, 2026
UK Labor Market: Lower Jobless Rates Misleading, as Wage Pressures hit New Cycle -Low
April 21, 2026 6:54 AM UTC
There are further signs that the labor market is haemorrhaging jobs both clearly and broadly with fresh falls in the more authoritative measure of jobs covering payrolls. Indeed, private sector payrolls are still falling, down over 0.5 ppt in y/y terms. Admittedly, headlines may be formed around
April 20, 2026
Canada - BoC Q1 Business Outlook Survey - Stronger but not fully catching war impact
April 20, 2026 7:42 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada’s Q1 business outlook survey released earlier today was generally improved, with the business outlook indicator of -0.36 from -1.78 the strongest since Q4 2022, with respondents reporting less of a drag from trade tensions. The survey may be however overstating current optimism,
Canada March CPI - Energy bounces but subdued elsewhere
April 20, 2026 1:01 PM UTC
Canadian CPI increased to 2.4% yr/yr in March from 1.8% in February but the increase was less steep than expected. Seasonally adjusted the monthly gain was 0.5% but with ex food and energy CPI unchanged, suggesting a subdued underlying picture.
April 16, 2026
UK GDP Review (Apr 16): Fresh But Fleeting Momentum Before the War
April 16, 2026 7:10 AM UTC
Without the outbreak of the Iran War there was already a split within the MPC about the policy outlook and that such divisions may have been accentuated by this latest GDP update which showed a very much above consensus m/m rise of 0.5%, the strongest in 14 months. But of course, the conflict has ch