U.S. Fed's Logan - Wasn't convinced inflation falling enough even before war

April 2, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

Fed's Logan, a hawkish voter, had concerns on prices even before the war started.

Bank of Canada Minutes from March 18 - Too early to judge impact of war, tone far from hawkish

April 1, 2026 6:05 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada has released minutes from its March 18 meeting, which left rates unchanged at 2.25% as expected though we felt that the tone of the statement was somewhat dovish. The minutes show that the BoC felt that it was too early to assess the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, thou

U.S. Fed's Schmid - Fears inflation could remain near 3%

March 31, 2026 5:19 PM UTC

Fed's Schmid is taking a hawkish view of the oil price risks, but has no vote this year.

Iran War: Invasion Risks

March 31, 2026 10:55 AM UTC

·       Any ground-based invasion would likely result in a long war and Iran would likely counter with attacks on energy or other key facilities around the Gulf.  Sea and air based invasions are also difficult, while any victory would likely be followed by occupation.  WTI oil prices would

U.S. Fed's Powell - No hurry to move rates, Comfortable with balance sheet

March 30, 2026 3:01 PM UTC

Fed's Powell is no hurry to tighten in response to the energy price shock, and has a different view on the balance sheet to Warsh.

Markets: Short vs Long Iran War

March 30, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

·       For a 4-8 week war and 3-4 quarters of energy price normalisation, we see a 10% U.S. equity market correction in H1 2026 driven by the current Iran war and/or consumption slowing due to lower (real) wage growth, alongside still stretched valuations in equity and equity-bond terms.  T

Norges Bank Review (Mar 26): Unsurprisingly Too Hawkish

March 26, 2026 9:48 AM UTC

While no change in policy was expected from the Norges Bank’s verdict this month, the clear shift in rhetoric was almost inevitable.  It dropped its recently repeated assertion that ‘the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year’ and instead suggested that ‘the po

March Outlook: Iran War and AI Challenges

March 26, 2026 7:17 AM UTC

Our March Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

DM FX Outlook: The Rest of 2026

March 25, 2026 7:55 AM UTC

Our baseline is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 and USD60 by Q3 2027. This should see the USD return to a weaker profile later in the year. In our December Outlook, our favorites were the AUD and NOK based on yield spreads, but it is also worth noting th

UK CPI Review: Goodbye to the Good Old Days?

March 25, 2026 7:33 AM UTC

After January’s clear fall, even in the core rate, where the headline CPI rate fell from December’s 3.4% to 3.0% (a 10-mth low) it stayed there in February’s numbers – matching both consensus and BoE projections.  Services fell 0.1 ppt to 4.3% which was a four-year low (Figure 1) but the co

U.S. Outlook: Investment to Lead Growth, Underlying Inflation Set to Slow

March 24, 2026 12:15 PM UTC

•    The crisis in the Middle East poses upside risks to headline inflation and downside risks to activity and our baseline assumes a 4-8 week war with a partial reversal of energy prices by end Q2 (here). Our forecasts (below) include a soft patch in H2 2026. Entering 2026 however, the U.S. e

Eurozone Outlook: Conflicts of Interest

March 24, 2026 9:55 AM UTC

·       Under our more likely view of limited further fighting in the Middle East, we see oil and gas prices largely falling back to the pre-war levels within a year, with the current situation very different from that of 2022 and the Ukraine War in which the EZ lost access to Russian gas as

DM Rates Outlook: Mixed Policy Rate and Yield Paths

March 24, 2026 8:46 AM UTC

·        The multi quarter outlook for DM rates depends on the length of the Iran war Our baseline is that it will be a 4-8 week war (here) and a 3-4 quarter retracement of oil prices back to pre-war levels – longer from Europe and Asian gas prices. We forecast WTI down to USD80-85 by June

Western Europe Outlook: Economies Slip on Oil

March 24, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

·       In the UK, even without the Middle East impact we were suggesting a sub-consensus 2026 GDP picture which now has even greater downside risks attached.  Our baseline is for 4-8 week war and a reversal of oil prices over 3 quarters. The BoE has a symmetric stance between 2nd round effe

Japan Outlook: A Perfect Window

March 24, 2026 3:59 AM UTC

•    Private consumption is supported by real wage turning positive in 2026. The trend is solidified by early spring wage negotiation results, which major firms agree to hike stronger than 2025 levels. We revised 2026/27 GDP to +1% as wage gains likely to accelerate. We expect 2026 CPI to be s

Outlook Overview: Iran War and AI Challenges

March 23, 2026 4:39 PM UTC

·       The Iran war macro impact depends on length of the conflict and impact on energy flows. Our baseline is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end December and USD60 by Q3 2027 (here).  The jump in oil and gas prices mean at least a temporary increase in

Iran War Scenarios Updated

March 23, 2026 3:04 PM UTC

·       Our central scenario remains a 4-8 week war in Iran. Trump’s loathing of long wars and high gasoline prices will likely prompts the U.S. to declare victory.  A formal ceasefire is unlikely, but the end of hostilities could see an informal understanding of the Straits of Hormuz for

Norges Bank Preview (Mar 26): How Hawkish Will the Board Sound?

March 23, 2026 10:56 AM UTC

While no change in policy is expected from the Norges Bank’s verdict due on Mar 26, a clear shift in rhetoric is almost inevitable.  It may very well drop its recently repeated assertion that ‘the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year’.  The question is whether

ECB Review: Not Such a Good Place!

March 19, 2026 2:49 PM UTC

With no change in policy expected and this being delivered unanimously, the ECB underlined its determination to ensure that inflation stabilises at the 2% target in the medium term. Unsurprisingly, it stressed how the Middle East conflict has made the outlook significantly more uncertain, creating u

BoE Review: A Fragile MPC Truce?

March 19, 2026 12:59 PM UTC

Very clearly, the BoE kept rates on hold with no dissents as it understandably waits for more information about the length, breadth and repercussions of the Iran war.  The individual MPC member statements (as expected) showed diverging views as to the extent and reaction of what are now unfolding r

Sweden Riksbank Review: On Hold and More Likely Still For Some Time

March 19, 2026 9:26 AM UTC

Surprising hardly anyone, the Riksbank (again) kept policy on hold with the key rate left at 1.75% it latest verdict.  However, what was more important was if and how the Board changed its rhetoric.  In this regard, it repeated its assertion of no change for some time to come but qualified it some

SNB: Steady Policy With Concern on Strong CHF

March 19, 2026 8:58 AM UTC

·       The SNB maintained the policy rate at zero, with a 0.2% increase in 2026 CPI due to the Iran war but 2027 0.1% lower at 0.5% due to CHF strength since the December meeting (Figure 1).  The emphasis in the statement on guarding against the disinflationary risk from more CHF strength s

Fed: Leave Door Open To Cut, But

March 18, 2026 7:37 PM UTC

·        Bottom line: The FOMC dots still pointed towards further rate cuts and Powell left the door open – noting it was too early to make judgement on the economic effects of the Iran war.  We feel that the Fed is too optimistic about consumption and thus GDP, given that employment grow

U.S. Fed's Powell - Need progress on tariff-led goods inflation

March 18, 2026 6:49 PM UTC

Fed's Powell is focused on inflation concerns that existed before the energy shock, with the impact of the latter still unclear.

FOMC - No change in rates or median dots but more positive on GDP

March 18, 2026 6:24 PM UTC

The FOMC has left rates unchanged as expected with limited changes to the statement other than to note uncertainty arising from the Middle East with no change in the median dots for 2026, 2027 and 2028. However the FOMC has made upgrades to its growth projections, which can be seen as somewhat hawki

Bank of Canada - Uncertainty Heightened Further but a Dovish Leaning

March 18, 2026 3:17 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada left rates at 2.25% as expected, but with uncertainty heightened still further removed from its statement a reference to the current policy being appropriate provided the economy evolves as expected. Uncertainty on policy has increased too. However, the BoC has taken a more dovish

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Downside growth risks, upside inflation risks

March 18, 2026 2:03 PM UTC

The BoC left rates unchanged with the Iran war increasing uncertainty still further, but sound more dovish on the economic outlook. 

U.S. Private Credit: One To Watch Rather than Systemic Issue

March 17, 2026 10:29 AM UTC

While the U.S. private credit sector could face further problems in 2026/27 (due to the lagged impact of the end of ultra-low rates in 2021-23), this appears to be a sectoral issue.  U.S. banks equity capital and funding are robust enough to weather a further deterioration, though some corporates c

UK CPI Preview (Mar 25): The Calm Before the Storm?

March 17, 2026 8:53 AM UTC

Although most aspects of the January CPI came in a notch above BoE thinking, there was still a clear fall even in the core rate.  Indeed, the headline CPI rate fell from December’s 3.4% to 3.0% (a 10-mth low) and we see it staying there is February’s numbers - as do BoE projections.  Services

Canada February CPI - Getting closer to target, but upside risks in March from energy

March 16, 2026 12:52 PM UTC

February Canadian CPI at 1.8% yr/yr from 2.3% has come in softer than expected with the assistance of the ending of a sales tax holiday a year ago, though BoC core rates point to underlying slowing. March data looks set to get a lift from energy prices, but the underlying picture is getting closer t

Canada February Employment - A very weak month, though partly corrective from strength in late 2025

March 13, 2026 1:57 PM UTC

Canada’s February employment report is very weak, falling by 83.9k to extend a 24.8k fall in January. The data may in part be corrective from over-inflated stronger in September, October and November of 2025 but there is little in the February breakdown that mitigates the weakness of the headline.

UK GDP Review: More Gloom?

March 13, 2026 7:41 AM UTC

Fresh downside surprises were the story from the January GDP numbers.  Expectations that the economy would enjoy a further successive rise, thereby providing the best three-month showing in two years were dashed as GDP instead stagnated.  Weakness was broad-based but most evident in private servic

BoE Preview (Mar 19): MPC Agree to Disagree?

March 12, 2026 2:35 PM UTC

The rate cut that seemed partly flagged by the narrow vote against easing in early February now looks highly unlikely this month. Indeed, it is also likely that the four who dissented in favor of cutting last time around will vote with the majority in favour of no change.  But while the MPC as a wh

FOMC Preview for March 18: Little change seen in either statement or dots

March 11, 2026 3:37 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on March 18 with rates likely to be left unchanged at 3.5-3.75%. The dots will be updated but we expect them to remain where they were in December, looking for one 25bps easing in 2026 and one more in 2027. The economic forecasts are likely to see only modest changes from September, w

ECB Preview (Mar 19): No Longer in a Good Place?

March 11, 2026 2:53 PM UTC

With no change in policy expected, what the ECB says is the most important aspect of the ECB meeting next week, both explicitly and implicitly via its updated forecasts (Figure 1).  Both are likely to underscore that rate hikes are certainly possible if the almost inevitable inflation rise proves t

U.S. February CPI - Core rate has slowed, but inflation not yet defeated

March 11, 2026 1:00 PM UTC

February CPI is in line with expectations at 0.3% overall, 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being 0.267% and a reasonably subdued 0.216%. Yr/yr rates are unchanged at 2.4% overall and 2.5% ex food and energy. The data is not alarming but inflationary pressures remai

Bank of Canada Preview for March 18: No change in rates or from January's message

March 10, 2026 5:27 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on March 18 and looks highly likely to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. The statement is likely to reiterate the message given at the last meeting on January 28, that the policy rate is appropriate conditional on the economy evolving in line with expectations, but uncertainty

Sweden Riksbank Preview (Mar 19): On Hold and Still For Some Time Ahead?

March 10, 2026 10:56 AM UTC

It is highly likely that the Riksbank will (again) keep policy on hold with the key rate left at 1.75% when it gives its next verdict.  However, what will be more important is what the Board says; explicitly in terms of the recent (less pleasing to it) data flow and, implicitly in terms of updated

Trump’s Fiscal Dominance

March 10, 2026 10:35 AM UTC

·       Voting will be done by 12 FOMC members and while Kevin Warsh could mellow some centrists, 5 district Fed presidents and Barr/Jefferson are at the Fed until at least 2031. Warsh may merely bring interest rate cuts sooner from June or potentially engineer a small dip below the 3% neutra