EUR/GBP-Commentary

View:

April 02, 2025

USD flows: Mixed tariff bag, some relief for Canada and Mexico, Japan and EU hit
Paying Article

April 2, 2025 9:30 PM UTC

The Trump tariff announcement is a mixed bag, with some relief for Canada and Mexico but aggressive action on Japan and the EU, as well as several developing nations.  The net impact is probably not much off expectations for the US economy, which will face somewhat higher inflation and somewhat slo

March 26, 2025

GBP flows: GBP steady after spring statement
Paying Article

March 26, 2025 1:36 PM UTC

UK yields lower but GBP steady after spring statement, implying a positive market response, but GBP risks are still on the downside

GBP flows: GBP slips on lower February inflation
Paying Article

March 26, 2025 7:17 AM UTC

UK inflation comes in a little lower in February, emphasising GBP downside risks ahead of the fiscal statement later

March 20, 2025

GBP flows: GBP slightly firmer after BoE leaves rates unchanged
Paying Article

March 20, 2025 12:15 PM UTC

An 8-1 vote for no change with only one dissenting dove rather than the two expected by the consensus has helped GBP a little higher, but the statement is fairly neutral.

GBP flows: Labour market data marginally GBP negative
Paying Article

March 20, 2025 7:18 AM UTC

Most of the UK labour market data is broadly in line with consensus, but slightly softer wage data from the HMRC could support expectations of a May rate cut from the BoE

March 14, 2025

GBP flows: GBP slips on weaker GDP
Paying Article

March 14, 2025 7:31 AM UTC

GBP lower as January GDP falls 0.1%

March 11, 2025

EUR, GBP, scandi flows: EUR and scandis firm as risk sentiment recovers
Paying Article

March 11, 2025 8:00 AM UTC

EUR recovering as equity futures bounce, GBP slips to 6 week low against the EUR. Scandis the best performers.

February 19, 2025

GBP flows: GBP fails to sustain gains on stronger CPI
Paying Article

February 19, 2025 7:38 AM UTC

GBP initially gains on stronger CPI, but fails to sustain rise. GBP supported by yield spreads, but remains expensive and upside progress likely to be tough.

February 18, 2025

GBP, SEK flows: GBP and SEK slightly firmer after data
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 7:18 AM UTC

UK employment data a little stronger than expected. Swedish CPI in line with consensus. Limited upside for both GBP and SEK

February 13, 2025

GBP flows: GBP slightly firmer after GDP, but...
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 7:50 AM UTC

UK Q4 GDP rises due to services and inventories but detail unimpressive.  GBP gains modestly but upside limited

February 11, 2025

GBP flows: Little impact from Mann but GBP risks on the downside
Paying Article

February 11, 2025 9:28 AM UTC

Mann's comments suggest she could remain a dove near term. GBP risks on the downside unless we see EU targeted tariffs 

February 06, 2025

GBP flows: GBP softer after BoE cuts rates
Paying Article

February 6, 2025 12:19 PM UTC

EUR/GBP rises as UK yields fall following the BoE decision to cut rates, with two votes for a 50bp cut providing a mild dovish signal

January 24, 2025

EUR, GBP flows: GBP rallies on PMIs, general risk positive tone
Paying Article

January 24, 2025 10:18 AM UTC

GBP recovers as UK PMIs match EUR rise. Global risk positive tone persists helped by PMIs and Trump's less pro-tariff comments overnight

January 22, 2025

GBP, EUR flows: GBP softer after borrowing data
Paying Article

January 22, 2025 7:19 AM UTC

GBP edges lower after higher than expected PSNB. EUR rally fades after Trump tariff threat

January 21, 2025

GBP flows: GBP steady after UK labour market data
Paying Article

January 21, 2025 7:25 AM UTC

UK labour market data much as expected. GBP steady but risks still to the GBP downside

January 16, 2025

GBP flows: GBP slightly lower on weaker GDP
Paying Article

January 16, 2025 7:41 AM UTC

EUR/GBP edges up as GDP data disappoints. Still scope for further GBP losses

January 15, 2025

GBP flows: GBP slightly weaker after softer CPI
Paying Article

January 15, 2025 7:26 AM UTC

UK December CPI comes in softer than expected and increases the chance of BoE easing, suggesting further downside risks for GBP

January 09, 2025

GBP flows: GBP starting soft
Paying Article

January 9, 2025 7:56 AM UTC

GBP under pressure on worries over weak growth and fiscal position, although rising bund yields have also contributed

December 23, 2024

EUR/GBP Flows: BOE Rate Cuts
Paying Article

December 23, 2024 2:30 PM UTC

 GBP heads into Christmas well underpinned versus the EUR, amid money market expectations that the BOE will only cut by two 25bps steps in 2025 (first one full priced for May!) versus four from the ECB.

December 20, 2024

GBP flows: GBP stays soft after retail sales
Paying Article

December 20, 2024 7:45 AM UTC

GBP stayn on the back foot after mildly softer retail sales with the MPC vote and statement suggesting downside risks

December 19, 2024

GBP flows: GBP slips on 6-3 vote for no change
Paying Article

December 19, 2024 12:25 PM UTC

The MPC voted 6-3 for no chance, with the 3 votes for a cut one more than expected. Still scope for the makret to price in more easing suggesting GBP downside risks

December 18, 2024

GBP, AUD flows: GBP slightly softer after CPI, AUD surprisingly weak
Paying Article

December 18, 2024 7:41 AM UTC

GBP edges lower after CPI. AUD/USD hits new low for the year

December 17, 2024

GBP flows: GBP up on strong earnings data
Paying Article

December 17, 2024 7:35 AM UTC

EUR/GBP dips further below 0.83 as average earnings growth picks up

December 02, 2024

EUR, JPY, GBP flows: JPY and GBP firm, EUR soft
Paying Article

December 2, 2024 8:10 AM UTC

JPY strength continues, GBP gaining ground against the EUR

November 22, 2024

GBP, EUR, USD flows: EUR falls sharply on PMIs
Paying Article

November 22, 2024 9:43 AM UTC

EUR/USD drop sharply as PMIs fall much moe than expected. 

GBP, EUR, USD flows: GBP slips on retail sales
Paying Article

November 22, 2024 7:47 AM UTC

GBP/USD drop to 6 month lows on weaker retail sales

November 20, 2024

GBP flows: Stronger CPI GBP supportive
Paying Article

November 20, 2024 7:32 AM UTC

GBP rises on stronger than expected October CPI

November 15, 2024

GBP flows: GBP softer after weak GDP
Paying Article

November 15, 2024 7:41 AM UTC

GBP slips lower after weak GDP but decline is modest and underlying GBP strength remains

November 12, 2024

GBP flows: GBP edges lower after labour market data
Paying Article

November 12, 2024 7:39 AM UTC

UK labour market data mixed but GBP slightly lower, perhaps focusing on the rise in the unemployment rate. But stronger than expected average earnings data may be more significant and could prevent a BoE rate cut in December

November 11, 2024

USD, EUR, GBP, JPY flows: USD firm in early trade
Paying Article

November 11, 2024 8:11 AM UTC

USD firm as markets anticipate Trump administration. GBP resilient, USD/JPY stretched

November 08, 2024

USD, CAD, EUR, JPY flows: USD reverses gains, CAD in focus
Paying Article

November 8, 2024 7:59 AM UTC

The rise in US yields and the USD after the election have largely been reversed, but equities remain elevated and commodity currencies have outperformed. But the CAD remains vulnerable if today's employment report is weak.

October 31, 2024

GBP flows: GBP slumps as gilt yields rise sharply
Paying Article

October 31, 2024 2:19 PM UTC

GBP falling sharply in an echo of the post-Truss budget reaction of 2022. Hard to oppose GBP weakness. 

October 22, 2024

GBP flows: Still scope for rerating despite more dovish BoE
Paying Article

October 22, 2024 2:04 PM UTC

GBP unlikely to benefit from any further rise in yields, but could still gain if there is a positive reaction to the first budget from the new government.

October 21, 2024

AUD, GBP, NOK flows: Risk negative start to the week
Paying Article

October 21, 2024 7:03 AM UTC

Risky currencies dip as Asia equities slip ahead of European open. AUD and NOK weakness looks overdone

October 18, 2024

GBP flows: GBP rises on strong retail sales
Paying Article

October 18, 2024 6:45 AM UTC

EUR/GBP lowest since April 2022 after an unexpected rise in UK retail sales in September

October 16, 2024

GBP flows: GBP falls back on weaker CPI
Paying Article

October 16, 2024 6:47 AM UTC

GBP dips as CPI data increases chances of rate cuts

October 14, 2024

GBP flows: GBP firm but downside risks
Paying Article

October 14, 2024 7:12 AM UTC

GBP firm overnight but risks on the downside 

October 11, 2024

GBP flows: GBP little changed after GDP, but...
Paying Article

October 11, 2024 6:43 AM UTC

GBP little changed as GDP rises 0.2% in August as expected, but high level of GBP looking harder to justify

October 03, 2024

GBP flows: GBP falls on Bailey comments
Paying Article

October 3, 2024 7:18 AM UTC

GBP falls back as Bailey indicates prospect of more aggressive easing

September 23, 2024

EUR, GBP flows: GBP resilient despite weaker PMI
Paying Article

September 23, 2024 8:50 AM UTC

GBP moves to new highs against the EUR despite weaker PMI

EUR, GBP, CHF, USD, JPY flows: EUR drops on weak PMIs
Paying Article

September 23, 2024 7:54 AM UTC

General PMI weakness in Germany and France undermines EUR, particularly against the safe havens

EUR, GBP, CHF, USD, JPY flows: PMIs in focus
Paying Article

September 23, 2024 6:41 AM UTC

PMI data in focus this morning with modest dip expected. EUR has scope to extend gains if data at or above consensus

September 20, 2024

GBP flows: GBP gains after strong retail sales
Paying Article

September 20, 2024 6:47 AM UTC

EUR/GBP testing the year's lows after retail sales extends stronger trend

September 19, 2024

GBP flows: GBP gains after BoE MPC leaves rates unchanged
Paying Article

September 19, 2024 11:18 AM UTC

GBP up after unchanged rate decision from MPC, with 8-1 vote less dovish than expected. Upside scope for GBP/USD

September 18, 2024

GBP flows: GBP slightly firmer after as expected CPI
Paying Article

September 18, 2024 6:32 AM UTC

EUR/GBP slightly lower as expected rise in core CPI sustains expectations that BoE will leave rates unchanged tomorrow

September 11, 2024

GBP flows: GBP softer after flat GDP
Paying Article

September 11, 2024 6:24 AM UTC

GBP softens after July GDP comes in unchanged m/m, below market expectations of a 0.2% rise.

September 10, 2024

GBP flows: GBP slightly firmer after labour market data
Paying Article

September 10, 2024 6:19 AM UTC

UK labour market data was mixed, and mild GBP strength unlikely to extend far

August 28, 2024

EUR, CHF, GBP flows: EUR offer, GBP and CHF staying firm, but...
Paying Article

August 28, 2024 7:04 AM UTC

EUR/USD looks likely to hold clos to current levels. GBP and CHF gains may start to falter

August 27, 2024

JPY, CHF, GBP flows: JPY steadier, GBP, CHF gains stretched
Paying Article

August 27, 2024 7:08 AM UTC

JPY stabilising, CHF and GBP strength statign to look overdone

August 26, 2024

USD flows: Small USD Recovery, But
Paying Article

August 26, 2024 1:28 PM UTC

USD is gaining some ground against the EUR in early NY trading, which appears to be largely technical and a partial correction to Friday move.