Imports Surge, Growth Slows: Indonesia’s Q3 GDP Falls Short of 5% Mark

November 11, 2024 6:43 AM UTC

Bottom line: Indonesia’s Q3 GDP growth slipped to 4.95% yr/yr in Q3, missing the 5% target as soaring imports weighed on the headline figure. Private consumption remained steady, while fixed investment showed resilience with notable gains. Looking ahead, Q4 may bring further softening. 

Indonesia CPI Review: Cooling Inflation Signals More Rate Cuts Ahead for Indonesia

October 1, 2024 9:25 AM UTC

In September, Indonesia experienced its slowest inflation in nearly three years, driven by a drop in food and transport costs. Core inflation edged up, reflecting price increases in non-essential goods. The ongoing deflationary trend since May, influenced by supply-side factors like strong harvests,

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Shifting Gears for Growth

September 25, 2024 7:57 AM UTC

Emerging Asian economies are poised to remain the fastest growing globally. India and Southeast Asia will drive regional resilience amid China’s cooling growth engine in 2025. For India, while the external environment remains challenging due to weaker global demand and geopolitical tensions, domes

Bank Indonesia Preview: Rupiah Defense - BI to Hold Rates, Eye Future Easing

September 16, 2024 8:24 AM UTC

Easing food inflation saw headline CPI decline to 2.1% yr/yr in July. Nonetheless, price pressures from a weakening IDR persist. Bank Indonesia will likely hold rates till Q4-2024. 

Indonesia CPI Review: Food Price Pressures Ease

September 3, 2024 10:12 AM UTC

Easing food inflation saw headline CPI decline to 2.12% yr/yr in August. Nonetheless, price pressures from a weakening IDR persist. Bank Indonesia will likely hold rates till Q4-2024. 

Rupiah Gains Ground: BI Stays Cautious on Rate Cuts

August 22, 2024 11:26 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia held its key interest rate at 6.25% to stabilise the rupiah and attract FX inflows, while maintaining interventions in the FX and bond markets. Inflation remains within target, and GDP growth forecasts are steady. Future rate cuts depend on US Federal Reserve actions. A 25bps cut is e

Indonesia Q2 GDP Review: Resilient Economic Activity

August 11, 2024 4:48 PM UTC

Bottom line: Indonesia's Q2 GDP growth is expected to ease to 5% yr/yr. While government consumption is expected to have remained stable, moderation in Indonesia's external sector will hold growth back. Additionally, with no longer the boost from festive demand, private consumption is also expected

Indonesia Q2 GDP Preview: Slight Easing After a Robust Start

August 4, 2024 8:00 PM UTC

Bottom line: Indonesia's Q2 GDP growth is expected to ease to 5% yr/yr. While government consumption is expected to have remained stable, moderation in Indonesia's external sector will hold growth back. Additionally, with no longer the boost from festive demand, private consumption is also expected

Easing Price Pressures to Influence Bank Indonesia Trajectory

August 4, 2024 2:11 PM UTC

Easing food inflation saw headline CPI decline to 2.1% yr/yr in July. Nonetheless, price pressures from a weakening IDR persist. Bank Indonesia will likely hold rates till Q4-2024. 

Stable Rupiah, Steady Growth: Inside Bank Indonesia's Latest Rate Decision

July 17, 2024 1:13 PM UTC

Bank Indonesia held its key interest rate at 6.25% to stabilize the rupiah and attract FX inflows, while maintaining interventions in the FX and bond markets. Inflation remains within target, and GDP growth forecasts are steady. Future rate cuts depend on US Federal Reserve actions. A 25bps cut is e

Prabowo's Economic Vision: Ambitious Targets and Fiscal Debates for 2025

July 15, 2024 4:22 PM UTC

Indonesia's parliament has set ambitious economic targets for 2025, tasking Bank Indonesia with strengthening the rupiah to USD/IDR 15,300-15,900.  The parliament also set a GDP growth target of 5.3-5.6% and a fiscal deficit target of 2.29-2.82% of GDP. Despite revising the 2024 fiscal deficit to 2

Softening inflation will provide BI room to hold rate

July 2, 2024 1:36 PM UTC

Bank Indonesia in a pro-stability move decided to maintain the key policy rate at 6.25%. The move comes at a time when the weakness in the Indonesia Rupiah has increased in recent weeks. A rate cut is therefore not on the horizon. 

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Growth Momentum but Delayed Rate Cuts

June 21, 2024 9:45 AM UTC

•    Economic activity in emerging Asian economies is forecast to remain strong. Despite several challenges, including a tight oil market, constrained liquidity conditions, and delayed rate cuts, the region's economic activity is expected to show resilience. Other potential obstacles include u

Bank Indonesia Holds Rate Despite IDR Weakness

June 21, 2024 5:54 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia in a pro-stability move decided to maintain the key policy rate at 6.25%. The move comes at a time when the weakness in the Indonesia Rupiah has increased in recent weeks. A rate cut is therefore not on the horizon. 

Indonesia CPI Review: Food Prices to Maintain Pressure

June 3, 2024 11:28 AM UTC

Easing food inflation saw headline CPI decline to 2.8% yr/yr in May. Nonetheless, price pressures from a weakening IDR persist. Bank Indonesia will likely hold rates till Q4-2024. 

Indonesia CPI Preview: Food Prices to Maintain Pressure

May 28, 2024 10:11 AM UTC

Indonesia’s consumer price inflation is expected to remain broadly stable at the 3% y-o-y mark in May. Supply disruption due to floods in Sumatra region alongside persistent high food prices will keep price pressures elevated. 

Bank Indonesia Holds Firm on Rates: A Steady Hand for Currency Stability

May 22, 2024 9:29 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia in a pro-stability move decided to maintain the key policy rate at 6.25% today. The move comes at a time when the wakness in the Indonesia Rupiah has abated and headline inflation has edged down. Despite improving stability, a rate cut is not in sight in the near term. 

Indonesia Q4 GDP Review: Robust Start to 2024

May 7, 2024 1:22 PM UTC

Bottom line: Indonesia's Q1 GDP — released on May 6 — saw growth rebound to 5.1% yr/yr from 4.90% yr/yr in Q4 2023. While private consumption continued its ascent, government expenditure emerged as the key driver of Indonesia's growth narrative. Private consumption was supported by festive deman

Indonesia CPI Review: Inflation Inches Down but BI on Alert

May 3, 2024 10:33 AM UTC

Indonesia’s consumer price inflation eased marginally to 3% yr/yr in April on the back of declining food prices. Despite the easing, food price remain the key inflationary factor. Additionally, imported inflation as the IDR comes under pressure could keep inflation elevated in the near term. Bank

Indonesia CPI Preview: Food Prices to Push Up CPI in April

April 29, 2024 1:25 PM UTC

Indonesia’s consumer price inflation in expected to continue to trend upward in April. Food prices, alongside higher transportation price growth will drive up inflation. Furthermore, increased demand during Ramadan will also weigh on headline inflation. 

Indonesia: MPC Review: Bank Indonesia Surprises With A Rate Hike

April 29, 2024 11:26 AM UTC

In a pre-emptive move to both curb inflationary pressures and safeguard the Indonesia Rupiah (IDR) against furhter depreciation, Bank Indonesia, in a surprise move, increased its main policy rate by 25 bps to 6.25%. However, further rate hikes are not expected as the central bank remains wary of hur

Indonesia: MPC Preview: Bank Indonesia to Hold Rate Despite Currency Volatility

April 23, 2024 11:12 AM UTC

With inflation within target range and the need to defend the currency amid global uncertainties and US dollar strength, Bank Indonesia (BI) is likely to extend its pause on rate adjustments in the upcoming monetary policy meeting on April 24. BI remains committed to stabilising the Indonesian rupia

Indonesian Court Delivers Verdict: Prabowo prevails

April 22, 2024 3:18 PM UTC

The Constitutional Court dismissed cases against Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka and President Joko Widodo. In Gibran's case, the court didn't disqualify him from running for president but sanctioned the election committee for not amending regulations following a previous ruling. This ruling l

Indonesia CPI Review: Ramadan Demand Drives Up Inflation

April 1, 2024 1:33 PM UTC

Indonesia's latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data has revealed a notable acceleration in inflation, surpassing expectations and marking the highest rate since August 2023. The surge, driven primarily by heightened demand during the fasting month of Ramadan, highlights significant price pressures ac

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Election Spending to Drive Growth

March 22, 2024 12:18 PM UTC

·       In 2024, growth trends across emerging Asia will exhibit a mixed pattern. Encouragingly, there will be a resurgence in demand for global electronics following a period of stagnation in 2022‑23, which will provide a boost to regional trade. Moreover, the initiation of monetary policy

Bank Indonesia to Retain Policy Rate

March 18, 2024 5:40 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia (BI) will likely maintain the key 7-day reverse repo rate unchanged in March at 6%, in line with recent trends. The stability of the rupiah remains a crucial consideration for BI, alongside CPI inflation, which has moderated within the new target band of 2.5+/-1%. 

Bank Indonesia to Look Beyond Recent Uptick in Consumer Price Index

March 7, 2024 4:06 AM UTC

Indonesia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) indicates a notable uptick in inflation, reaching 2.75% y/y in February compared to 2.57% y/y in January. The three-month high inflation rate was primarily propelled by surging food prices, aligning with expe

Indonesia Preview: CPI to remain broadly stable

February 28, 2024 3:29 PM UTC

Indonesia’s February inflation is likely to remain broadly stable. Food prices will maintain upward pressures but a tight monetary stance will keep headline inflation in check. Increased demand ahead of Ramadan could see prices spike in March. 

Indonesia's Elections: Prabowo Subianto Emerges as Front-Runner

February 22, 2024 11:30 AM UTC

Prabowo Subianto emerges as the front-runner in Indonesia's recent national elections, securing a substantial lead of approximately 60% in preliminary sample counts, potentially avoiding a runoff and reducing political uncertainty. While his decisive victory provides him with political capital, conc

Bank Indonesia indicates H2 easing

February 22, 2024 11:07 AM UTC

In a bid to support the stability of the Indonesian economy and the rupiah, Bank Indonesia (BI) has opted to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6% in its latest monetary policy committee decision today (February 21). This decision aligns with BI's commitment to balance economic growth whi

Indonesia: PDI-P To Maintain Power and Policies

January 16, 2024 9:17 AM UTC

Looking ahead to the upcoming legislative and presidential elections scheduled for February 14, 2024, the centre-left Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P) is expected to maintain its position as the largest single party in the House of People's Representatives (DPR). 

Bank Indonesia Navigating the Path to Sustained Growth

January 5, 2024 10:17 AM UTC

As Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eases and BI maintains a delicate balance, the nation's economic outlook takes centre stage. Recent data from Indonesia's Central Statistics Agency (BPS) reveals a slight deceleration in CPI inflation, dipping to 2.6% y/y in December from 2.9% y/y in the previ

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Going Big, Going Strong

December 18, 2023 10:05 AM UTC

·       Following a stellar performance in 2023, the momentum of economic activity in emerging Asian economies is anticipated to remain broadly stable, albeit lose some sheen in the subsequent quarters. The economic activity levels should be sustained despite a tight oil market and a potentia

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Public Spending to be Catalyst

September 27, 2023 2:11 PM UTC

Forecast changes: Strong H1-2023 performance and cooling price pressures have prompted changes to our growth and monetary policy forecasts. Both India and Indonesia’s 2023 GDP growth forecast have been revised upward, and we now expect a rate cut in early 2024. 

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Defying Global Headwinds

June 21, 2023 11:01 AM UTC

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Asian Powerhouses Lead Post War and Post Pandemic Growth

March 28, 2023 9:58 AM UTC

Forecast changes: Elevated and sticky inflation and waning external sector stimulus means that the prospects for Asian economies are less optimistic. We have cut Indonesia’s 2023 GDP growth forecast, and revised inflation across the board to reflect the elevated food price pressures in these econo