Bank Indonesia
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October 01, 2024
Indonesia CPI Review: Cooling Inflation Signals More Rate Cuts Ahead for Indonesia
October 1, 2024 9:25 AM UTC
In September, Indonesia experienced its slowest inflation in nearly three years, driven by a drop in food and transport costs. Core inflation edged up, reflecting price increases in non-essential goods. The ongoing deflationary trend since May, influenced by supply-side factors like strong harvests,
September 25, 2024
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Shifting Gears for Growth
September 25, 2024 7:57 AM UTC
Emerging Asian economies are poised to remain the fastest growing globally. India and Southeast Asia will drive regional resilience amid China’s cooling growth engine in 2025. For India, while the external environment remains challenging due to weaker global demand and geopolitical tensions, domes
September 16, 2024
September 03, 2024
August 22, 2024
Rupiah Gains Ground: BI Stays Cautious on Rate Cuts
August 22, 2024 11:26 AM UTC
Bank Indonesia held its key interest rate at 6.25% to stabilise the rupiah and attract FX inflows, while maintaining interventions in the FX and bond markets. Inflation remains within target, and GDP growth forecasts are steady. Future rate cuts depend on US Federal Reserve actions. A 25bps cut is e
August 11, 2024
Indonesia Q2 GDP Review: Resilient Economic Activity
August 11, 2024 4:48 PM UTC
Bottom line: Indonesia's Q2 GDP growth is expected to ease to 5% yr/yr. While government consumption is expected to have remained stable, moderation in Indonesia's external sector will hold growth back. Additionally, with no longer the boost from festive demand, private consumption is also expected
August 04, 2024
Indonesia Q2 GDP Preview: Slight Easing After a Robust Start
August 4, 2024 8:00 PM UTC
Bottom line: Indonesia's Q2 GDP growth is expected to ease to 5% yr/yr. While government consumption is expected to have remained stable, moderation in Indonesia's external sector will hold growth back. Additionally, with no longer the boost from festive demand, private consumption is also expected
July 17, 2024
Stable Rupiah, Steady Growth: Inside Bank Indonesia's Latest Rate Decision
July 17, 2024 1:13 PM UTC
Bank Indonesia held its key interest rate at 6.25% to stabilize the rupiah and attract FX inflows, while maintaining interventions in the FX and bond markets. Inflation remains within target, and GDP growth forecasts are steady. Future rate cuts depend on US Federal Reserve actions. A 25bps cut is e
July 15, 2024
Prabowo's Economic Vision: Ambitious Targets and Fiscal Debates for 2025
July 15, 2024 4:22 PM UTC
Indonesia's parliament has set ambitious economic targets for 2025, tasking Bank Indonesia with strengthening the rupiah to USD/IDR 15,300-15,900. The parliament also set a GDP growth target of 5.3-5.6% and a fiscal deficit target of 2.29-2.82% of GDP. Despite revising the 2024 fiscal deficit to 2
July 02, 2024
Softening inflation will provide BI room to hold rate
July 2, 2024 1:36 PM UTC
Bank Indonesia in a pro-stability move decided to maintain the key policy rate at 6.25%. The move comes at a time when the weakness in the Indonesia Rupiah has increased in recent weeks. A rate cut is therefore not on the horizon.
June 21, 2024
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Growth Momentum but Delayed Rate Cuts
June 21, 2024 9:45 AM UTC
• Economic activity in emerging Asian economies is forecast to remain strong. Despite several challenges, including a tight oil market, constrained liquidity conditions, and delayed rate cuts, the region's economic activity is expected to show resilience. Other potential obstacles include u
June 03, 2024
May 28, 2024
Indonesia CPI Preview: Food Prices to Maintain Pressure
May 28, 2024 10:11 AM UTC
Indonesia’s consumer price inflation is expected to remain broadly stable at the 3% y-o-y mark in May. Supply disruption due to floods in Sumatra region alongside persistent high food prices will keep price pressures elevated.
May 22, 2024
Bank Indonesia Holds Firm on Rates: A Steady Hand for Currency Stability
May 22, 2024 9:29 AM UTC
Bank Indonesia in a pro-stability move decided to maintain the key policy rate at 6.25% today. The move comes at a time when the wakness in the Indonesia Rupiah has abated and headline inflation has edged down. Despite improving stability, a rate cut is not in sight in the near term.
May 07, 2024
Indonesia Q4 GDP Review: Robust Start to 2024
May 7, 2024 1:22 PM UTC
Bottom line: Indonesia's Q1 GDP — released on May 6 — saw growth rebound to 5.1% yr/yr from 4.90% yr/yr in Q4 2023. While private consumption continued its ascent, government expenditure emerged as the key driver of Indonesia's growth narrative. Private consumption was supported by festive deman
May 03, 2024
Indonesia CPI Review: Inflation Inches Down but BI on Alert
May 3, 2024 10:33 AM UTC
Indonesia’s consumer price inflation eased marginally to 3% yr/yr in April on the back of declining food prices. Despite the easing, food price remain the key inflationary factor. Additionally, imported inflation as the IDR comes under pressure could keep inflation elevated in the near term. Bank
April 29, 2024
Indonesia CPI Preview: Food Prices to Push Up CPI in April
April 29, 2024 1:25 PM UTC
Indonesia’s consumer price inflation in expected to continue to trend upward in April. Food prices, alongside higher transportation price growth will drive up inflation. Furthermore, increased demand during Ramadan will also weigh on headline inflation.
April 23, 2024
Indonesia: MPC Preview: Bank Indonesia to Hold Rate Despite Currency Volatility
April 23, 2024 11:12 AM UTC
With inflation within target range and the need to defend the currency amid global uncertainties and US dollar strength, Bank Indonesia (BI) is likely to extend its pause on rate adjustments in the upcoming monetary policy meeting on April 24. BI remains committed to stabilising the Indonesian rupia
April 22, 2024
Indonesian Court Delivers Verdict: Prabowo prevails
April 22, 2024 3:18 PM UTC
The Constitutional Court dismissed cases against Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka and President Joko Widodo. In Gibran's case, the court didn't disqualify him from running for president but sanctioned the election committee for not amending regulations following a previous ruling. This ruling l
April 01, 2024
Indonesia CPI Review: Ramadan Demand Drives Up Inflation
April 1, 2024 1:33 PM UTC
Indonesia's latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data has revealed a notable acceleration in inflation, surpassing expectations and marking the highest rate since August 2023. The surge, driven primarily by heightened demand during the fasting month of Ramadan, highlights significant price pressures ac
March 22, 2024
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Election Spending to Drive Growth
March 22, 2024 12:18 PM UTC
· In 2024, growth trends across emerging Asia will exhibit a mixed pattern. Encouragingly, there will be a resurgence in demand for global electronics following a period of stagnation in 2022‑23, which will provide a boost to regional trade. Moreover, the initiation of monetary policy
March 18, 2024
Bank Indonesia to Retain Policy Rate
March 18, 2024 5:40 AM UTC
Bank Indonesia (BI) will likely maintain the key 7-day reverse repo rate unchanged in March at 6%, in line with recent trends. The stability of the rupiah remains a crucial consideration for BI, alongside CPI inflation, which has moderated within the new target band of 2.5+/-1%.
March 07, 2024
Bank Indonesia to Look Beyond Recent Uptick in Consumer Price Index
March 7, 2024 4:06 AM UTC
Indonesia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) indicates a notable uptick in inflation, reaching 2.75% y/y in February compared to 2.57% y/y in January. The three-month high inflation rate was primarily propelled by surging food prices, aligning with expe
February 28, 2024
Indonesia Preview: CPI to remain broadly stable
February 28, 2024 3:29 PM UTC
Indonesia’s February inflation is likely to remain broadly stable. Food prices will maintain upward pressures but a tight monetary stance will keep headline inflation in check. Increased demand ahead of Ramadan could see prices spike in March.
February 22, 2024
Indonesia's Elections: Prabowo Subianto Emerges as Front-Runner
February 22, 2024 11:30 AM UTC
Prabowo Subianto emerges as the front-runner in Indonesia's recent national elections, securing a substantial lead of approximately 60% in preliminary sample counts, potentially avoiding a runoff and reducing political uncertainty. While his decisive victory provides him with political capital, conc
January 16, 2024
Indonesia: PDI-P To Maintain Power and Policies
January 16, 2024 9:17 AM UTC
Indonesia, the world's fourth-most populous nation, is poised for a significant political transition as President Joko Widodo, widely known as Jokowi, is set to step down in early-2024 after a presidential election. Looking ahead to the upcoming legislative and presidential elections scheduled for
January 05, 2024
Bank Indonesia Navigating the Path to Sustained Growth
January 5, 2024 10:17 AM UTC
Delving into the components of CPI, the December easing is attributed to a multifaceted slowdown in both food and utility prices. Disinflationary pressures from household equipment, restaurants, and personal care items contributed to the overall dip. However, information and recreation prices exerte
December 18, 2023
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Going Big, Going Strong
December 18, 2023 10:05 AM UTC
Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics
Risks to Our Views
Source: Continuum Economics
Regional Dynamics: Mixed Prospects in 2024
In H1-2024, much like in 2023, the emerging economies in Asia will continue to outperform other emerging markets and display notable resilience in comparison to develope
September 27, 2023
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Public Spending to be Catalyst
September 27, 2023 2:11 PM UTC
Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics
Risks to Our Views
Source: Datastream
Regional Dynamics: Governments to Prop-up Growth
As in 2022, emerging economies in Asia demonstrated their continued outperformance compared to other emerging markets and exhibited greater resilience compared to developed
June 21, 2023
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Defying Global Headwinds
June 21, 2023 11:01 AM UTC
Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics
Risks to Our Views
Source: Datastream
Regional Dynamics: Capital Spending to Buoy Economies
As seen in 2022, emerging Asian economies will continue to outperform other emerging markets and prove to be more resilient than the developed economies. Asia is expecte
March 28, 2023
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Asian Powerhouses Lead Post War and Post Pandemic Growth
March 28, 2023 9:58 AM UTC
Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics
Risks to Our Views
Source: Continuum Economics
Regional Dynamics: Worsening External Demand To Be A Drag
Slowing global trade and global economic growth will be drag on Asia’s growth story in 2023. Waning global demand for Asia’s key exports, especially for