September Outlook: Navigation Into 2027

September 24, 2026 1:35 PM UTC

Our September Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

Outlook Overview: Navigation Into 2027

September 23, 2026 2:30 PM UTC

·       The hot phase of the Iran war is over, but the intermittent conflict between the U.S. and Iran is stopping shipping via the Straits of Hormuz from fully recovering and keeping energy prices elevated.  Some DM and EM central banks are guarding against 2nd round effects with modest tig

DM Rates Outlook: Long-term challenges, but selective short-term value

September 23, 2026 6:15 AM UTC

*Overweight gilts for 2027, focusing on intermediates. Large ‘policy uncertainty’ premium offers value on any less adverse Middle East scenario.
* Treasuries may offer tactical opportunity into weakness over Q4 2026-Q1 2027, with US10s projected back towards 4½% in respite. Longer term issues re

DM ex U.S.: Weathering Higher Energy Prices

September 22, 2026 1:22 PM UTC

·       EZ. We expect the Eurozone economy to remain resilient in coming quarters despite the ongoing energy shock. Household consumption growth should strengthen into 2027, supported by a recovery in real wage growth and by favourable employment increases. Increased defence and infrastructur

BOJ: Future Policy Rate Hikes

September 18, 2026 7:16 AM UTC

·       BOJ voted 7-2 for a 25bps hike to 1.25%, but neither the statement or Ueda press conference suggest a pick-up in the tightening pace.  The economy and inflation remain more important than the JPY in BOJ decisions. The lagged feedthrough of the Iran war energy price shocks points to f

BOJ: Future Policy Rate Hikes

September 18, 2026 7:15 AM UTC

·       BOJ voted 7-2 for a 25bps hike to 1.25%, but neither the statement or Ueda press conference suggest a pick-up in the tightening pace.  The economy and inflation remain more important than the JPY in BOJ decisions. The lagged feedthrough of the Iran war energy price shocks points to f

QT: BOE Slowdown But Not BOJ/ECB Yet

September 11, 2026 11:50 AM UTC

·       The BOE will likely slow the pace of QT to GBP50bln pa at the September 17 MPC meeting, but the BOJ/ECB have no current plans to slow QT.  The BOJ QT at 6% of GDP is huge and pushing up JGB yields and the BOJ could slow the pace over the winter into the spring once the next 25bps pol

NBIM’s bond allocation rethink

September 8, 2026 7:30 AM UTC

* Proposal would imply $80bn~ Treasury sell, although little net USD change
* JGBs see marked pick up, presented as method change more than value, but…
* Several peers already follow broader bond mix. Is NBIM just ‘catch up’ or does to speak to wider concerns and incentives?

Barbarous Relic or Strategic Hedge - Gold in a late-cycle portfolio

September 1, 2026 7:00 AM UTC

* Gold worked off early year retail excess, moving into a more constructive technical and seasonal period
* The strategic case for gold is much wider: rich risk asset valuations can neither be sat out nor left unhedged
* History (no guarantee of future performance…) supports increased gold hedges in

Continuum Economics Calendar September 2026

August 28, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar September 2026.

DM Central Banks Watching Stablecoins

August 20, 2026 10:55 AM UTC

·       Overall, DM central banks have a watching brief for stablecoins and the scale of growth in the next 5 years.  This is largely a USD centric issue, with stablecoins dominated by USD issuance. Central banks are watchful on whether it impacts access to low cost deposit for banks; guardi

DM Data Week Ahead: Aug 17-21

August 14, 2026 3:22 PM UTC

In additional to the usual Iran-watching, dual focus for the week ahead come from FOMC Minutes and the Aug 19 deadline for US-Canada trade talks

Taiwan: China Coastguard Quarantine Risks Grow

August 10, 2026 7:55 AM UTC

·       Given China’s coastguard recent actions, we now raise the probability of a full quarantine of Taiwan shipping to 20% versus 10-15% in 2027/28 (Figure 2), with the probability of some further measures beyond radio requests now above 50% in 2027/28 and in our baseline. Quarantine meas

DM Data Week Ahead: Aug 10-14

August 7, 2026 4:08 PM UTC

Key focus this week is US CPI. We look for 0.1% headline, 0.2% core
UK GDP consensus 0.1% in Jun but downside risks from heatwave?
Mkt eyes BoJ meeting comments for clues

AI Equities: Correction/Consolidation?

August 5, 2026 7:40 AM UTC

•    Overall, we feel that recent movements have been a correction/consolidation in the AI equity story.  AI specific revenue growth still remains healthy and will support multi-year plans over cloud computing growth and in turn semiconductor demand.  Even so, slowing free cash flows and ove

BoJ Review: As Expected

July 31, 2026 5:48 AM UTC

The BoJ keep rates unchanged at 1% in the July meeting 

BoJ Review: As Expected

July 31, 2026 5:47 AM UTC

The BoJ keep rates unchanged at 1% in the July meeting 

BoJ Preview: More Hawkish Forward Guidance?

July 29, 2026 2:00 AM UTC

The BoJ will keep rates unchanged at 1% in the July meeting 

BoJ Preview: More Hawkish Forward Guidance?

July 29, 2026 1:30 AM UTC

The BoJ will keep rates unchanged at 1% in the July meeting 

DM Data Week Ahead: July 27-30

July 24, 2026 2:33 PM UTC

Key events are Fed and BOE meeting, though BOJ will also attract attention,  Key data is Q2 U.S. GDP. 

The Endpoint Problem: US Asset Prices, Investment and the Current Cycle

July 20, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

·       Asset Price Index (API) framework suggests the US gap is elevated and, on some constructs, has moved into top-decile territory.
·       The question is whether prices, capex and financing conditions are beginning to reinforce the same cyclical risk-accumulation dynamics.
·   

Economic Data and Events Week Ahead July 20-24

July 17, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

The highlight of the week comes from the ECB meeting and press conference, although we do not expect it to provide much guidance regarding September, sticking to the non-pre-commit language, to keep options open depending on data and geopolitical developments. 
The UK has its busy week, but data is

AI Optimism and Credit Markets?

July 15, 2026 8:05 AM UTC

·       The AI trade in financial markets is also a question of credit markets, given the scale of financing needs is using up hyperscalers free cash flow at a rapid rate and the AI labs heavy financing requirements. Credit markets could become more sensitive, if the AI labs revenue growth sl

Iran/U.S.: A New War or Escalating to Deescalate?

July 14, 2026 10:40 AM UTC

·       Our baseline remains that the MOU will hold and that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen.  Iran can be pressured economically by the U.S. naval blockade being re-established. Additionally, President Trump loves to escalate to de-escalate to get a deal.  This is a 60% probability scenar

Japan’s GPIF: Can it turn back the clock on the yen?

July 13, 2026 11:45 AM UTC

·       The GPIF story is not that one public fund can singlehandedly ‘rescue the yen’. The question is more whether Japan can use one of the central institutions that helped drive the Abenomics flow-of-funds regime revolution to change the narrative, re-influence domestic allocation and

Economic Data and Events Week Ahead July 13-17

July 10, 2026 3:06 PM UTC

The most significant release of the week is likely to be June’s CPI on Tuesday, which we expect to be unchanged overall, but with a slightly firmer 0.3% rise ex food and energy, 0.26% before rounding. The CPI could however be overshadowed by testimony from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to the House Financ

Continuum Economics Calendar July 2026

June 30, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar July 2026.

AI Boom and Bust?

June 30, 2026 10:45 AM UTC

•    While some are becoming wary that AI bust could arrive in coming quarters, AI labs revenue growth has been explosive and this sustains the vertical chain of datacenter demand and commitments for the hyperscalers and also buoyant semiconductor demand.  For 2027 and 2028 capital markets re

Economic Data and Events Week Ahead Jun 29 - Jul 3

June 26, 2026 2:45 PM UTC

The week ahead has plenty of notable events, spanning Eurozone inflation on one side, to US payrolls on the other, and with central bank speakers all round - the ECB Sintra conference at the start of the week hears from Lagarde and then a panel that includes Warsh and Bailey.

June Outlook: Iran War and AI Challenges

June 25, 2026 7:55 AM UTC

Our June Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

Outlook Overview: Cyclical and Structural Forces

June 24, 2026 7:00 AM UTC

·       The difference between 2nd round inflation effects from higher energy prices and 1st round effects that central banks can look through swings on whether the Straits of Hormuz will remain open in the coming months after the U.S./Iran interim agreement (here). Despite some tensions, we

DM Rates Outlook: Tightening or Easing?

June 23, 2026 8:15 AM UTC

·       With the U.S./Iran interim agreement likely to hold and energy prices softening, our projected consumer slowdown will likely tilt the Fed not to hike in H2 2026 and to actually ease by 50bps in 2027, with 25bps moves in both Q2 and Q3.  With 2yr yields consistent with a hike, the tra

DM ex U.S. EZ Outlook (Japan and Western Europe): Navigating the Post Iran War Period?

June 23, 2026 7:43 AM UTC

·       We have revised 2026 Japan GDP only slightly lower to 0.8% as wage growth is solidly above 3%, which will support consumption for the rest of 2026/27. The extension of energy stimulus will cap headline inflation for Q2/Q3 2026.  For the BOJ, despite hawkish forward guidance, the 1% r

Equities Outlook: AI Optimism, But Caution Elsewhere in DM economies

June 22, 2026 7:05 AM UTC

·       In terms of the S&P500, we remain less concerned about high valuations in the tech sector provided AI labs growth remains fast.  12mth fwd information technology are mid-range in the 2020-26 experience rather than at the highs. Even so, heavy equity issuance by tech companies and a s

BOJ: QT still 5-6% of GDP until 2030 at least!

June 17, 2026 6:25 AM UTC

·       Though the BOJ will maintain bond buying at Yen2trn pm from April 2027, huge redemptions means that net QT will be Yen45trn April 27-March 28 i.e. around 6.5% of GDP after QT at 6% of GDP in 2026.  Then JGB net reduction of Yen40trn (6% of GDP) FY 29 and Yen35trn (5.5% of GDP).  Wit

BoJ Review: One Percent

June 16, 2026 4:39 AM UTC

The BoJ hike rates by 25bps to 1% in the June meeting 

U.S./Iran Interim Deal and Reopening Strait of Hormuz

June 15, 2026 12:32 PM UTC

  ·       Our baseline (80%) is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in H2 2026 and remains open through 2027.  However, logistics dislocation plus a switch from commercial inventory rundown to rebuilding will likely slow the decline in oil prices back towards normal levels (Figure 1).  O

BoJ Preview: Lock and Loaded

June 15, 2026 6:06 AM UTC

The BoJ will keep hike rates by 25bps to 1% in the June meeting 

Financial Markets/Policymakers and the Strait of Hormuz Question

June 10, 2026 8:05 AM UTC

·      Though the U.S. and Iran have attacked each other June 10, talks to reopen the straits of hormuz still continue. An Iran/U.S. agreement to reopen the Straits of Hormuz could cure the risk of a demand/supply oil market imbalance and produce some psychological relief that could knock USD

DM Government Bonds: Risks of Higher Long End Premia?

June 8, 2026 2:10 PM UTC

·        Our baseline is for DM government bond yields ex Japan to remain elevated, but controlled.  Japan extra risk premium is driven by BOJ QT at 6% of GDP, more than long-term debt fears. Major catalysts could drive a regime change to higher risk premia and steeper yield curves, but non

Taiwan: Low Invasion Risk Post Trump Visit

May 29, 2026 11:05 AM UTC

·       The most likely option for China is to continue the air and naval grey zone warfare around Taiwan, combined with support for pro-China factions in Taiwan’s parliament to build pressure for reunification at some stage.  This stick and carrot approach is our baseline (Figure 1).  Wi

DM Government Bond Markets in Limbo

May 27, 2026 12:22 PM UTC

·       DM central bank meetings in June will be crucial, with a high risk of a 25bps ECB hike to warn against 2nd round effects from higher oil prices and a BOJ 25bps hike as part of the ongoing normalisation.  However, the tone that the Fed’s Warsh will set will also be key.  The bigges

Continuum Economics Calendar June 2026

May 27, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar June 2026.

Straits of Hormuz Scenarios

May 7, 2026 6:25 AM UTC

·       Our new baseline (70% probability) is for the Straits of Hormuz to start to partially reopen by June/July based on a framework deal between Iran and the U.S.  This means more elevated oil prices in Q2, but then a gradual reduction in WTI to USD85 end-2026 and USD75 end 2027.  The al

Continuum Economics Calendar May 2026

April 29, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar May 2026.

BoJ Review: Hawkish Hold

April 28, 2026 4:53 AM UTC

The BoJ kept rates unchanged at 0.75% in the April meeting with a 6-3 vote

Straits of Hormuz Standoff and Mixed Markets

April 27, 2026 9:02 AM UTC

•    Equities longer time horizon means that they are hoping for a reopening of the Straits of Hormuz (though also being helped by renewed AI optimism), whereas government bond markets actually want to see tangible progress and an associated tempering of DM central banks posturing.  This dive