Continuum Economics Calendar November 2025

October 31, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar November 2025.

October 30, 2025 5:31 AM UTC

The BoJ has kept rates unchanged at 0.5% in the Oct 30th meeting with a 7-2 vote

October 29, 2025 4:14 AM UTC

The BoJ will keep rates unchanged at 0.5% in the Oct 30th meeting 

Japan: Storm Calms or Reaches the eye?

October 20, 2025 2:48 AM UTC

The LDP and Japan Innovation Party have reached a broad agreement to form a coalition government

Japan: A New Page?

October 6, 2025 4:13 AM UTC

Sanae Takaichi has been elected as the LDP party leader in October 4th and will become the next prime minister of Japan. While it may mean a new page for Japanese politics, it may well be a step backward for the BoJ monetary policy.

DM Central Banks: Wider-Ranging Conditions More Than Neutral Rates

October 2, 2025 6:55 AM UTC

·        Neutral policy rate estimates and forward guidance provide some help at the start of easing cycles, but less so at mid to mature stages.  For the Fed, ECB and BOE we look at a wider array of economic and financial conditions, alongside our own projections over the next 2 years to m

AI/Humanoid Robots and Disinflation?

October 1, 2025 9:40 AM UTC

·       Overall, a number of forces from the AI wave will impact inflation.  Power demand could push up power prices, but productivity enhancements and product innovation could be disinflationary like Information and Communications technology (ICT).  One other key uncertainty on a 1-5 year

Continuum Economics Calendar October 2025

September 29, 2025 11:00 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar October 2025.

DM Government Bond Saints v U.S.

September 29, 2025 7:35 AM UTC

·       Overall, although the fiscal saints (Australia/Canada/Germany/Sweden) have merits over the U.S. in the scenario where Fed independence is undermined and more Fed rate cuts occur than warranted by the economics, the 10yr area of other government bond markets may not outperform. 10yr go

September Outlook: Into 2026 -- Market Implications

September 26, 2025 9:00 AM UTC

Our September Outlook is now published and please see all our markets chapters below.  

September Outlook: Into 2026

September 25, 2025 6:20 AM UTC

Our September Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

Outlook Overview: Into 2026

September 23, 2025 8:25 AM UTC

·       The critical question is how much the U.S. economy is slowing down with the feedthrough of President Donald Trump’s tariffs to boost inflation and restrain GDP growth, with the effective rate currently around 17% on U.S. imports. Though semiconductor tariffs are likely, the bulk of

DM Rates Outlook: Steepening Yield Curve The Old Normal?

September 23, 2025 7:53 AM UTC

•    We continue to forecast further yield curve steepening across the U.S./EZ and UK, driven by cumulative easing.  For the U.S. this can see a modest further decline in 2yr yields, but the prospect is for a move to a premium of 2yr to Fed Funds (unless a hard landing is seen).  10yr yields

Equities Outlook: Correction Then Up In 2026

September 23, 2025 7:15 AM UTC

•    The U.S. equity market’s bullishness reflects good corporate earnings reality, buybacks and the AI story.  However, we feel that the U.S. economy can deteriorate still further in the coming months, as the lagged effects of tariffs boost inflation and restrain spending/hurt corporate ea

Japan Outlook: Ready for Another Step

September 22, 2025 1:30 AM UTC

•    The recovery in private consumption surprised to the upside is Q2 2025 because wage growth regained traction after clarity on the U.S.-Japan trade front. The gradual transition of business price/wage setting behavior will continue to support consumption in 2025/26. Trade balance in 2025 h

BoJ Review: Holding the lines

September 19, 2025 5:20 AM UTC

The BoJ kept rates unchanged at 0.5% in the Sep 19st meeting and announced the selling of their ETF and J-REIT holdings

Taiwan: Grey Warfare or Naval Quarantine?

September 12, 2025 11:15 AM UTC

  ·       The most likely option for China is to continue the air and naval grey warfare around Taiwan, combined with support for pro-China factions in Taiwan parliament to build pressure for reunification at some stage. With invasion being too high risk for President Xi (with the U.S. main

September 10, 2025 10:55 AM UTC

Steeper yield curves are a function of monetary easing cycles, budget deficits, lower central bank holdings of government bonds, a move towards pre GFC real rates and shifting demand from pensions funds and life insurance companies.  Scope exists for further steepening in the U.S., EZ and UK with m

Japan: Political, Trade and Policy Uncertainty

September 8, 2025 4:35 AM UTC

Political, Trade and Policy Uncertainty for Japan as PM Ishiba resigns

Aging: Slow Growth for Some in 2020’s

September 1, 2025 8:35 AM UTC

   Population aging always seems to be beyond the market horizon, but the 2020’s are already seeing population aging in some countries.  What is the economic impact? Aging is already causing a peak in labor force in China and the EU. Meanwhile, the population pyramid also means less consumptio

Continuum Economics Calendar September 2025

August 28, 2025 10:35 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar September 2025.

Jackson Hole: Fed/ECB/BOJ and BOE on Labor Markets

August 25, 2025 9:02 AM UTC

Fed Powell focused on the cyclical softening of employment to back a more dovish undertone.  In contrast other central bank heads focused on structural labor market issues.  While ECB Lagarde was pleased with the post COVID EZ picture, current economic softness still leaves us forecasting two furt

China Slow Diversification: Gold And Others

August 19, 2025 8:05 AM UTC

 China’s diversification from U.S. Treasuries appears to be at a slow pace.  Gold is the obvious alternative if geopolitical tensions were to rise or skyrocket in the scenario of a China invasion of Taiwan.  However, Gold holdings are merely creeping higher and suggesting no urgency from China

August 18, 2025 9:05 AM UTC

The U.S. short average term to maturity is a structural fiscal weakness if higher rates lift U.S. government interest costs close to the nominal GDP trend.  Hence, Trump’s pressure for fiscal dominance of the Fed to deliver lower policy rates and reduce U.S. government interest rate costs. Howeve

China: Echoes of Japan?

August 13, 2025 8:05 AM UTC

     Overall, some of China’s private businesses and households are suffering from Japan’s style balance sheet recession.  Combined with slowing productivity and a shrinking workforce, this points to slower trend growth in the coming years.  However, fiscal stimulus and the clean-up of Loca

August 5, 2025 9:50 AM UTC

U.S. Treasury spreads versus other DM government bond markets or 10-2yr U.S. Treasuries are not yet showing a risk premium from the Trump administration attacks on the Fed and economic data. Debate over whether the U.S. is seeing a soft or hard landing are reemerging and this will dominate the outlo

Trump Tougher Posture with Russia

August 4, 2025 8:31 AM UTC

      We suspect that Trump will not follow-through with an across the board secondary sanction on importers of Russia oil, as it would freeze U.S./China trade again and could boost U.S. gasoline prices – high inflation is one main reason for Trump’s softer approval rating.  Trump could agre

Reciprocal Tariffs: Some Hikes, Deals and Delays

August 1, 2025 8:40 AM UTC

 Though high reciprocal tariffs with some countries catches the headline, five of the top 10 countries with large bilateral deficits have reached framework trade deals, two have delays and three have higher tariffs imposed.  With exemptions on some USMCA Canada/Mexico goods, plus phones/ semicondu

BoJ Review: As expected

July 31, 2025 5:20 AM UTC

The BoJ kept rates unchanged at 0.5% in the July 31st meeting with inflation forecast revised higher

Continuum Economics Calendar August 2025

July 30, 2025 11:00 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar August 2025.

DM Household Sluggish Borrowing

July 30, 2025 10:45 AM UTC

·        Overall, restrained credit supply from banks; abundant employment/income or wealth for most households but restrained financial conditions for low income households could have restrained household lending growth to GDP.  However, the surge in government debt and ensuing fear of fut

BoJ Preview: Inflation forecast higher

July 29, 2025 6:08 AM UTC

The BoJ will keep rates unchanged at 0.5% in the July 31st meeting 

Trump Deals: Japan, Philippines and Indonesia

July 23, 2025 8:26 AM UTC

•    Other countries cannot be guaranteed to get a Japan style deal, both as Japan is the key geopolitical ally in the Asia pivot against China and as Trump is keen to agree deals by August 1.  India and Taiwan are trying to finalize deals, but the EU is more difficult.  China 90 day deadlin

Japan: Mission Accomplished?

July 23, 2025 8:01 AM UTC

U.S.-Japan reached a trade deal with 15% reciprocal tariff

LDP Likely Lose Control of the Japan Upper House

July 21, 2025 2:00 AM UTC

Early exit pools suggest the ruling LDP coalition will likely lose majority

Trump’s Tariffs and Markets

July 17, 2025 12:00 PM UTC

The assumption in financial markets is that some trade framework deals will be done by August 1; some countries will make enough progress to be given an extra 30 days and some countries could have higher tariffs implemented. This would be broadly consistent with the average 15% tariff that is widely

Tariffs: Seeking a Trigger for the TACO Trade

July 14, 2025 4:28 PM UTC

It has been fairly clear for some time that 10% represented a likely floor for the eventual Trump tariff regime. However, expectations that Trump would not be willing to go dramatically above that are being tested. A rate in the mid-teens still looks the most likely outcome, as the economic damage t

U.S. Assets and Valuation

July 3, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

    The U.S. equity market has returned to be clearly overvalued on equity and equity-bond valuations measures and is vulnerable to a new correction in H2 on any moderate bad news (e.g. further economic slowing and corporate earnings downgrades).   In contrast, U.S. Treasuries are at broadly fai

DM Central Banks: Overlooking Lagged 2021-23 Tightening and QT?

July 2, 2025 8:30 AM UTC

We are concerned that DM central banks are underestimating the lagged impact of 2021-23 tightening and ongoing QT, which impacts the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.  Central banks need to consider cyclical and structural issues, but also need a more rounded view of the stance and implica

Trump Tariffs: Poker Face?

July 1, 2025 12:55 PM UTC

Our central scenario (but less than 50%) is towards a scenario of compromise, with some agreements in principle or trade framework deals, delays for most other negotiating in good faith but with one or two countries seeing a reciprocal tariff rise e.g. Spain and/or Vietnam.  This could still be fol

U.S. and Asia Defense Partners

June 30, 2025 7:30 AM UTC

 ·        Japan, S Korea and Australia could eventually agree to some extra commitment to increase (self) defence spending in the next 5-10 years though perhaps not targets like NATO countries.  This could come as part of the trade deal negotiations currently underway.  Japan and S Korea

Continuum Economics Calendar July 2025

June 26, 2025 1:00 PM UTC

Data and Events Calendar July 2025.

June Outlook: Trump’s Fluid Policies

June 25, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

All chapters of the June Outlook are now available and simply click the link below. 

Outlook Overview: Trump’s Fluid Policies

June 25, 2025 7:20 AM UTC

·       President Donald Trump still wants to use the tariff tool, and we see the eventual average tariff rate being in the 13-15% area, lowered by deals but increased by more product tariffs. Any lasting legal block on reciprocal tariffs will likely see the administration pivoting towards ot

Equities Outlook: Choppy Then 2026 Gains

June 24, 2025 8:15 AM UTC

       Though the U.S. equity market has rebounded, we still scope for a fresh dip H2 2025 to 5500 on the S&P500 as hard data softens further to feed into weaker corporate earnings forecasts and CPI picks up and delays Fed easing.  However, the AI story is still a positive, while share buybacks

DM Rates Outlook: Yield Curve Steepening?

June 23, 2025 8:30 AM UTC

•    We see the U.S. yield curve steepening in the next 6-18 months. 2yr U.S. Treasury yields can step down with cautious Fed easing on a modest/moderate growth slowdown and also if the Fed keeps an easing bias in H2 2026. 10yr U.S. Treasury yields face a tug of war between lower short-dated y

Japan Outlook: Hot Inflation Partially Transitory

June 23, 2025 3:00 AM UTC

·         Growth in private consumption remains sluggish in Q1 2025 on negative real wages. Wage hike in 2025 so far looks little affected by U.S. tariffs and should remain above 2% for the rest of 2025. The subtle change in business price/wage setting behavior will be supportive for consum

BOJ QT And Steeper Yield Curve

June 17, 2025 8:41 AM UTC

Despite the slowdown in the pick-up in BOJ QT, monthly bond purchases are set to slow from Yen4.1trn pm to Yen2.1trn pm by Q1 2027.  With bond maturities BOJ QT is getting bigger and will mean that supply pressures continue to drive yield curve steepening.  We see 1.85% 10yr JGB yields by end 2025

BoJ Review: As Expected

June 17, 2025 5:11 AM UTC

The BoJ has kept rates unchanged at 0.5% in the June 17th meeting 
Bond purchase tapering at 200 billion JPY after Q2 2026