Published: 2025-09-19T05:20:43.000Z

BoJ Review: Holding the lines

16

The BoJ kept rates unchanged at 0.5% in the Sep 19st meeting and announced the selling of their ETF and J-REIT holdings

 

The BoJ has kept rates unchanged at 0.5% in the September 19th meeting with two votes of dissent. It came as no surprise for the BoJ as there is current political uncertainty until the October 4 LDP election. However, current inflationary dynamics are supportive and the clarity from the U.S.-Japan trade front seems to have free the BoJ's hand for some indirect tightening. They have announced the "disposal" of ETFs and J-REIT at approximately 0.05% of trading values in the market or equivalent to "stocks purchased from financial institution". While the beginning date is to be announced, it is the first change to BoJ's holding of ETFs and J-REITs since the March 2024 meeting. While it is not as direct tightening as selling JGB, it is still a kind of shrinking of the bank's balance sheet and drains some liquidity. 

Additionally, they have set three principle in selling these asset. They will sell these asset for "adequate prices", avoid incurring losses as much as possible and without disrupting the financial market. They also kept the doors opened by suggesting such pace and magnitude could change in future meeting if the sale did not go well.

There does not seem to be much changes in the bank's rhetoric, in terms of economic development and inflation. BoJ seems to be downplaying headline inflation and attribute the stubborn underlying inflationary figure to long term structural labor shortage. They are seeing such to reach their inflation target in the second part of economic outlook, which is late 2026.

We continue to see an October rate hike of 25bps as inflationary dynamics are supportive and any trade/political uncertainty will mostly dissipate.

 

4Cast Ltd. and all of its affiliates (Continuum Economics) do not conduct “investment research” as defined in the FCA Conduct of Business Sourcebook (COBS) section 12 nor do they provide “advice about securities” as defined in the Regulation of Investment Advisors by the U.S. SEC. Continuum Economics is not regulated by the SEC or by the FCA or by any other regulatory body. This research report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Nonetheless, Continuum Economics has an internal policy that prohibits “front-running” and that is designed to minimize the risk of receiving or misusing confidential or potentially material non-public information. The views and conclusions expressed here may be changed without notice. Continuum Economics, its partners and employees make no representation about the completeness or accuracy of the data, calculations, information or opinions contained in this report. This report may not be copied, redistributed or reproduced in part or whole without Continuum Economics’s express permission. Information contained in this report or relied upon in its construction may previously have been disclosed under a consulting agreement with one or more clients. The prices of securities referred to in the report may rise or fall and past performance and forecasts should not be treated as a reliable indicator of future performance or results. This report is not directed to you if Continuum Economics is barred from doing so in your jurisdiction. Nor is it an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities or to enter into any investment transaction or use any investment service.
Analyst Declaration
I,Cephas Kin Long Yung, the FX Analyst declare that the views expressed herein are mine and are clear, fair and not misleading at the time of publication. They have not been influenced by any relationship, either a personal relationship of mine or a relationship of the firm, to any entity described or referred to herein nor to any client of Continuum Economics nor has any inducement been received in relation to those views. I further declare that in the preparation and publication of this report I have at all times followed all relevant Continuum Economics compliance protocols including those reasonably seeking to prevent the receipt or misuse of material non-public information.