Iran War: Invasion Risks

March 31, 2026 10:55 AM UTC

·       Any ground-based invasion would likely result in a long war and Iran would likely counter with attacks on energy or other key facilities around the Gulf.  Sea and air based invasions are also difficult, while any victory would likely be followed by occupation.  WTI oil prices would

EM FX Outlook: Weathering the Storm

March 25, 2026 8:45 AM UTC

·       EM currencies have seen a correction against the USD since the risk off prompted by the Iran war, but our baseline remains for a 4-8 week war (here) followed by energy prices only returning to pre-war levels by 2027 -- with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 and USD60 by

EMEA Outlook: Adverse Global Developments and Domestic Uncertainties Dominate

March 25, 2026 7:00 AM UTC

·     In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 3.8% and 3.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively based on our baseline of a 4-8-week war in Iran and energy prices easing from Q2. Upside risks to inflation remain such as 2nd round effects of oil price hikes, utility costs,

Iran War Scenarios Updated

March 23, 2026 3:04 PM UTC

·       Our central scenario remains a 4-8 week war in Iran. Trump’s loathing of long wars and high gasoline prices will likely prompts the U.S. to declare victory.  A formal ceasefire is unlikely, but the end of hostilities could see an informal understanding of the Straits of Hormuz for

CBR Cuts Key Rate by 50 Bps to 15% Despite Risks

March 20, 2026 6:16 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite adverse global developments and proinflationary risks, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) reduced the policy rate by 50 bps to 15% on March 20 likely to stimulate the economy as it comes under increasing strain from high borrowing costs. CBR noted in its written statement that it

Iran War Scenarios

March 11, 2026 9:45 AM UTC

·        Our central scenario (75%) remains a multi-week war in Iran. Trump loathing of long wars and high gasoline prices prompts U.S. to declare victory before end of March.  Israel and Iran would most likely agree an effective ceasefire.  The ceasefire would be fragile, however, as it w

EM Europe and CIS: Select Country Risk Ratings

March 9, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for EM Europe/CIS countries including Russia and Ukraine. 

Gulf Countries U.S. Investment Deals Risks

March 9, 2026 8:05 AM UTC

·       Lower budget revenue and a multi-year hit to tourism and the Gulf role as air transit hubs, could see delays and reduction in some parts of the Gulf states USD3.4 trillion deals with the Trump administration. The economic effects on the U.S. would likely be small and the geopolitics b

Markets and the Iran War

March 4, 2026 9:50 AM UTC

•    The Trump administration’s objective appears to be pivoting from regime change to hurting Iran ballistic missile capabilities, which argues for a 2-4 week war rather than a prolonged war.  However, the most intense missile battles will likely occur in the next one week and markets are

Iran: What Length For War?

March 2, 2026 7:44 AM UTC

·       If the war is short (ie 1-2 weeks) and leads to a ceasefire then the global economic impact will be small, with the greatest impact in the middle east of oil/gas supplies on a temporary basis and tourism.  If the war is more prolonged (ie months)  then oil/gas supplies could be sque

VAT Hike, Stubborn Food and Services Prices Pushed Russia’s Inflation to 6.0% y/y in January

February 13, 2026 5:08 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After easing to 5.6% y/y in December, Russia’s inflation edged up to 6.0% y/y in January due to VAT hike and stubborn food and services prices, the State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said. Despite Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced that the inflation forecast for 2026 has been

Surprising Move by the CBR: 50 Bps Interest Rate Cut Despite Inflationary Risks

February 13, 2026 12:48 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite we expected the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to hold the policy rate at 16% during the MPC on February 13 and anticipated a cautious stance as the Bank monitors inflationary risks, including the VAT hike in 2026, utility tariff increases, and elevated inflation expectations; the

Cuba: Pressure Grows

February 12, 2026 8:05 AM UTC

·       The Donroe doctrine has pressured Mexico into halting oil exports to Cuba, which is intensifying pressure on Cuba’s regime.  While chaos and attempted mass immigration is a risk, the baseline is for a negotiated deal as U.S./Cuba discussions deepen – though with the added complex

Russian Economy Grew by 1% in 2025

February 6, 2026 6:25 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to official announcement, Russian economy grew by 1.0% in 2025. President Putin said this slowdown was expected and intentional as part of measures aimed at curbing inflation. We think Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) previous aggressive monetary tightening coupled with sancti

CBR will Likely Keep the Key Rate Stable on February 13

February 5, 2026 9:07 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Following the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) 50 bps cut to 16% on December 19—driven by an accelerated disinflationary trend in Q4—we expect the CBR to hold the policy rate at 16% on February 13. This cautious stance is anticipated as the Bank monitors inflationary risks, includin

Europe Nuclear Weapons; NATO and Greenland

February 3, 2026 11:05 AM UTC

·        Without the U.S. nuclear weapon umbrella, Europe’s nuclear deterrent is too weak. Secondly, European countries are highly reliant on U.S. missile defense, command, intelligence and reconnaissance, which military experts estimate could take 10 years to replace. Major European count

Russia GDP Growth Preview: 2025 GDP Growth Will Hit Around 1%

January 28, 2026 11:09 AM UTC

Bottom Line: After Russia's GDP expanded by a moderate 0.6% y/y in Q3, we expect Russian economy will grow by around 1.0% in 2025 as Q4 growth will likely hit 0.6%-0.7% y/y. The GDP growth figures are expected to be announced on February 6. We think Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) previous aggressi

Trump’s Problems

January 28, 2026 8:35 AM UTC

Overall, the Trump administration’s hyperactive start to 2026 is unlikely to achieve success on the number one issue for voters in the shape of cost of living concerns.  Meanwhile ICE’s immigration tactics in Minnesota are causing concerns among swing voters, though Trump geopolitical adventuri

Maximum Trump

January 12, 2026 9:55 AM UTC

·       Overall, though Trump action can cause volatility in financial markets, the major issues remain the performance of the U.S. economy and whether the current scale of AI optimism will remain.  Monthly TICS data since the April reciprocal tariffs show that global investors continue inwa

January 7, 2026 8:05 AM UTC

·       Trump will likely go for more pressure and then seek to negotiate with Denmark and Greenland.  Denmark and Greenland already have mutual interests with the U.S. on security; minerals and Russia/China that are already covered by previous agreements and understandings.  Trump would li

Markets 2026

January 6, 2026 9:58 AM UTC

•    For financial markets, the muddle through for global economics and policy provides support for risk assets, combined with solid earnings prospects from some of the magnificent 7.  However, U.S. equities are once again significantly overvalued and we look for a 5-10% correction in 2026, b

Venezuela: Oil and Geopolitics

January 5, 2026 12:02 PM UTC

·       Venezuela’s oil production will likely take years to increase substantively due to poor infrastructure, the need for substantive investment, and a lack of democratic political stability.  In terms of geopolitics, operations in Venezuela reinforce the Trump administration’s pivot

Trump’s Peace Framework as a Path to a Late 2026 Settlement?

December 23, 2025 1:48 PM UTC

Bottom Line: With Russia maintaining its long-held demands in Ukraine and negotiations intensifying around President Trump’s latest peace proposal, our baseline view is that this framework will serve as the primary catalyst for a settlement. We anticipate a Russia-friendly peace deal (70% probabil

Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in December

December 22, 2025 2:11 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After edging down to 6.6% in November, we expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in December owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. December inflation figures will be announced on December 29, and we forese

Easing Cycle Continues: CBR Reduced Key Rate to 16% on December 19

December 19, 2025 11:09 AM UTC

Bottom Line: As expected, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) reduced the key rate by 50 bps to 16% during the MPC on December 19 since the pace of the fall in inflation accelerated in November. CBR said in its written statement that monetary policy will remain tight for a long period, and further decision

EM FX Outlook: High Real Yields Still Help

December 18, 2025 12:14 PM UTC

•    EM currency 2026 prospects come against a backdrop of a further but slower USD depreciation against DM currencies, but inflation differentials, domestic central bank policy and politics also matter.  We forecast the Mexican Peso (MXN) will likely be more volatile, as President Donald Tru

Outlook Overview: Turbulent Times

December 17, 2025 7:44 AM UTC

·        The U.S. slowdown remains in focus as the lagged effects of President Trump’s tariff increases continues to feedthrough, though our baseline is for a 2026 soft-landing.  The Supreme court will likely rule against part of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, which will create short-term

EMEA Outlook: Uncertainties Give Mixed Signals

December 16, 2025 7:00 AM UTC

·     In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 3.8% and 3.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. Upside risks to inflation remain such as, utility costs, and supply chain destructions. We see growth to be 1.4% and 1.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. Risks to the growth

Exceeding Expectations: Russia Inflation Eased Fast to 6.6% y/y in November

December 11, 2025 8:15 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Russian inflation continued its decreasing pattern in November and edged down to 6.6% owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening, and relative resilience of RUB despite food and services prices continued to surge in November. We think the inflation will continue

EM Europe and CIS: Select Country Risk Ratings

December 9, 2025 11:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for EM Europe/CIS countries including Russia and Ukraine. 

Americas First: New National Security Strategy

December 9, 2025 8:40 AM UTC

·       The new NSS at one level reads like a Trump/MAGA current list of topics and desires, that may not translate into policy or a major shift of military assets.  Trump has blown hot and cold on Europe and China over the past 12 months and could shift again.  Nevertheless, the NSS does r

U.S. Asset Inflows After April’s Trump Tariffs

November 21, 2025 8:00 AM UTC

·       Net foreign portfolio inflows have not been hurt by Trump’s April tariff drama, with the AI and tech boom attracting new equity inflows.  Flows could become more volatile with a U.S. equity bear market or recession, but these are modest risk alternative scenarios rather than high r

Markets 2026

November 18, 2025 10:30 AM UTC

·        The Fed, ECB and BOE will likely drive further 10-2yr government bond yield curve steepening, with 10yr Bund yields rising due to ECB QT and German fiscal expansion. 10yr JGB yields are set to surge through 2%, as BOJ QT remains excessive and underestimated.  The BOJ could partiall

Slowest Rate of Growth for Russia Since Q1 2023: 0.6% y/y in Q3 2025

November 14, 2025 6:06 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Ministry of Economic Development’s preliminary figures, Russia's GDP expanded by a moderate 0.6% y/y in Q3, marking the slowest rate of growth since Q1 2023 showing the economic slowdown in Russia is more evident now. We think Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) previous agg

Russia’s Inflation Softened to 7.7% y/y in October

November 14, 2025 5:00 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As expected, Russian inflation continued its decreasing pattern in October and edged down to 7.7% thanks to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening, and relative resilience of RUB particularly after July. Despite fall in inflation; we think the inflation will continue

Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in October Likely Hitting Below 8.0% y/y

November 6, 2025 2:39 PM UTC

Bottom Line: We expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in October thanks to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening coupled with softening food prices and decreasing core inflation. October inflation figures will be announced on November 14, and we foresee Yr/Y

Unexpectedly, CBR Reduced Key Rate to 16.5% on October 24

October 24, 2025 4:53 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite we expected Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to hold the policy rate constant at 17% during the next MPC on October 24 since the pace of the fall in inflation decelerated in September due to heightened gasoline prices after Ukraine stepped up hitting oil refineries in Russia; CBR de

Preview: CBR will Likely Hold the Key Rate Stable at 17% on October 24

October 16, 2025 1:09 PM UTC

Bottom Line: We expect Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to hold the policy rate constant at 17% during the next MPC on October 24 since the pace of the fall in inflation decelerated in September due to heightened gasoline prices after Ukraine stepped up hitting oil refineries in Russia; which could also

Russia’s Inflation Softened to 17-Month Low in September

October 10, 2025 7:02 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Russian inflation continued its decreasing pattern in September, and hit the lowest in 17-months after with 7.98% y/y, particularly thanks to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary. According to Rosstat’s announcement on October 10, core inflation eased to 7.7% y/y from 8% y/y

Russia’s Growth Continues to Lose Steam

October 2, 2025 11:17 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to a recent announcement by the Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP expanded by a moderate 0.4% YoY in August, meeting the same pace in the previous month, driven by manufacturing, retail trade and agriculture activities. According to the announcement, the growth in

Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in September

October 1, 2025 1:35 PM UTC

Bottom Line: We expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in September, after hitting the softest rate since April of 2024 with 8.1% YoY in August, particularly thanks to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening coupled with softening services and food prices. Sep

War in Ukraine: No Light Yet at the End of the Tunnel

September 26, 2025 12:34 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite expectations from the 80th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) held in New York were high, it did not yield a solution to the war in Ukraine, but an escalation between the U.S. and Russia. The claims by president Trump as he shifted his position on the war, saying for the f

Outlook Overview: Into 2026

September 23, 2025 8:25 AM UTC

·       The critical question is how much the U.S. economy is slowing down with the feedthrough of President Donald Trump’s tariffs to boost inflation and restrain GDP growth, with the effective rate currently around 17% on U.S. imports. Though semiconductor tariffs are likely, the bulk of

EMEA Outlooks Stay Mixed into 2026: Domestic and Global Uncertainties

September 22, 2025 6:58 AM UTC

·     In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 3.4% and 4.2% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, despite upside risks to inflation such as swings in food prices, supply chain destructions including energy shortages and port inefficiencies and global uncertainties. We see

September 16, 2025 10:53 AM UTC

In the unexpected scenario of an early death, Putin and Xi have no clear successors, and any new Russia or China leader would have to spend time building domestic strength and compromising on external goals. Erdogan also has no clear successors, which could create political uncertainty. For Trump su

CBR Reduced its Key Rate to 17% as Inflation Softened, but Warned Inflation is Still High

September 12, 2025 3:48 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we expected, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) reduced policy rate by 100 bps to 17% on September 12 taking into account that inflation continued to slow down in Q3 but still warned inflation remains high. CBR stated in its written statement it will maintain monetary conditions as tight

EM Europe and CIS: Select Country Risk Ratings

September 10, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for EM Europe/CIS countries including Russia and Ukraine. 

Trump-Putin Summit: No Ceasefire Agreement, Possible Concessions Discussed

August 18, 2025 12:29 PM UTC

Bottom Line: U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin met in Alaska on August 15 to discuss the fate of war in Ukraine. The meeting lasted three hours, but did not yield an immediate ceasefire agreement as we expected. After the meeting, Trump and Putin both signaled what could happen next i

Russian Economy is Slowing: GDP Growth Continued to Lose Steam in Q2 2025

August 14, 2025 9:23 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) figures, Russia's GDP expanded by 1.1% YoY in Q2, the slowest pace of growth since the economy resumed expansion in Q2 2023, driven by military spending, investments, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. We think Central Bank of R