Turkey

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July 12, 2024

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Turkiye’s Current Account Deficit: Services Surplus and Decreasing Trade Deficit Succour
Paying Article

July 12, 2024 1:28 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkiye’s annualized current account deficit (CAD) stood at $25.2 billion as of May 2024, marking its lowest level since June 2022, down from $31.7 billion a month earlier driven by strong services income and improving foreign trade balance, supported by accelerated capital inflows. W

July 11, 2024

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Country Risk in Lebanon and Turkey
Paying Article

July 11, 2024 8:05 AM UTC

Country risk reviews of Lebanon and Turkey.      

July 03, 2024

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Turkiye’s Inflation Slowed for the First Time in 8 Months: 71.6% in June
Paying Article

July 3, 2024 5:26 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on July 3 that Turkish CPI cooled to 71.6% annually and 1.6% monthly in June partly supported by the ease in energy and food prices in June compared to a month earlier. As we predicted, favourable base effects, tightened monetary and fiscal

July 02, 2024

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Webinar Recording June Outlook: Cyclical and Structural Forces
Paying Article

July 2, 2024 7:30 AM UTC

June 27, 2024

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As Widely Expected, CBRT Kept Key Rate Stable at 50% on June 27
Paying Article

June 27, 2024 12:32 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As predictions were centred around no change, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) kept the policy rate stable at 50% on June 27 despite galloping inflation edged up to 75.5% in May, up from 69.8% in April. CBRT said in a statement on June 27 that "(…) the tight monetary stance will be main

June 26, 2024

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June Outlook: Cyclical and Structural Forces
Paying Article

June 26, 2024 7:58 AM UTC

The 15 chapters of our June Outlook have now been published.  See the headlines and weblinks enclosed for links to the articles on economic, policy and markets for the 23 countries that we cover

June 25, 2024

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Outlook Overview: Cyclical and Structural Forces
Paying Article

June 25, 2024 10:15 AM UTC

•    The global economy is showing signs of healing, as inflation comes back towards targets and growth recovers momentum in some economies. Nevertheless, the cyclical headwind of lagged monetary tightening remains in DM countries, and will likely be one of the forces slowing the U.S. economy

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EMFX Outlook: USD Strength to Ebb with Different EM Impact
Paying Article

June 25, 2024 8:05 AM UTC

 We see Fed rate cuts from September starting to soften USD strength into year end and 2025.  Beneficiaries will include currencies with inflation moving towards target and high real rates or, alternatively, undervalued currencies. This should benefit the Brazilian Real (BRL) and Indonesian Rupiah

June 24, 2024

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EMEA Outlook: Stubborn Inflation Dominates
Paying Article

June 24, 2024 1:00 PM UTC

·     In Turkiye, we expect Central Bank of Republic of Turkiye (CBRT) will likely halt the key rate at 50% until the end of 2024, which is our baseline scenario. We expect a fall in inflation likely after July due to favorable base effects, additional macro prudential measures, public savings

June 03, 2024

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Turkiye’s Inflation Hits 75.5% in May
Paying Article

June 3, 2024 11:49 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on June 3 that Turkish CPI ticked up 75.5% annually and 3.4% monthly in May due to increases in education, housing, restaurant & hotel prices. We foresee favourable base effects, tightened monetary and fiscal policies, additional macro prud

May 31, 2024

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Turkish Economy Grew by a Strong 5.7% in Q1
Paying Article

May 31, 2024 12:18 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on May 31 that Turkish economy expanded by 5.7% in Q1 driven by the buoyant demand, invigorated private consumption and government spending. Despite strong Q1 figure, we expect the pace of the GDP growth to decelerate in the rest of 2024 du

May 23, 2024

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As Expected, CBRT Kept Key Rate Unchanged at 50%
Paying Article

May 23, 2024 7:30 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As predictions were centred around no change, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) kept the policy rate stable at 50% on May 23 despite galloping inflation which edged up to 69.8% in April, up from 68.5% in March. CBRT said in a statement on May 23 that "(...)considering the lagged effects of

May 09, 2024

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CBRT Lifts End-Year Inflation Forecast to 38%
Paying Article

May 9, 2024 10:22 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) released the second quarterly inflation report of the year on May 9, and lifted end-year inflation prediction from 36% to 38% citing that the rebalancing process for demand will be more delayed compared to what was projected that in the first inflation rep

May 03, 2024

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Turkiye’s Inflation Continues to Jump in April with 69.8%
Paying Article

May 3, 2024 7:40 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on May 3 that Turkish CPI ticked up 69.8% annually and 3.2% monthly in April due to increases in transportation, restaurant & hotel and education prices, coupled with the lingering impacts of the wage hikes on the services sector. We feel u

April 25, 2024

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CBRT Kept Key Rate Unchanged at 50%
Paying Article

April 25, 2024 3:25 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As predictions were centred around no change, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) kept the policy rate stable at 50% on April 25 despite galloping inflation, and pressure on FX lately. According to the CBRT statement, monetary policy stance will be tightened in case a significant and persist

April 22, 2024

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EM Europe/CIS: Country Risk Ratings
Paying Article

April 22, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for EM Europe/CIS countries including Russia and Ukraine. 

April 19, 2024

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Services Surplus and Decreasing Trade Deficit Partly Heal Turkish Current Account Deficit
Paying Article

April 19, 2024 12:18 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkiye’s annualized current account deficits (CAD) stood at $31.8 billion as of February 2024 when compared to $37.6 billion a month earlier, driven by a marginal increase in the services surplus, a reduction in the gold trade deficit, and a recovery in net energy trade. We envisage

April 03, 2024

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Turkiye’s March Inflation Ticks Up to 68.5% Despite Continued Tightening
Paying Article

April 3, 2024 9:16 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on April 3 that Turkish CPI surged to 68.5% annually and 3.2% monthly in March, and annual inflation swung to a 16-month high due to increases in food and education prices, coupled with the lingering impacts of the minimum wage hike on the

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March Outlook: Europe in Focus, Then Elections Around the World
Paying Article

April 3, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

March 27, 2024

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March Outlook: Europe in Focus, Then Elections Around the World
Paying Article

March 27, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

March 26, 2024

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EM FX Outlook: Domestic Drivers Key
Paying Article

March 26, 2024 9:01 AM UTC

   In terms of spot EM FX projections domestic drivers remain critical, with a desire to avoid appreciation versus the USD for some countries.  Fed easing in H2 2024 should however help EMFX more broadly and allow some recovery in spot rates (e.g. Indonesian Rupiah (IDR), South African Rand (ZAR)

March 25, 2024

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EMEA Outlook: Elections Set the Scene in Q2
Paying Article

March 25, 2024 2:00 PM UTC

·     Unlike South Africa and Russia, Turkiye continued with tightening monetary policy in Q1 due to stubborn inflation, pressure on FX and reserves. Meanwhile, Russia and South Africa halted their tightening cycles as of 2024 and will likely start cutting interest rates in Q3 depending on how

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Outlook Overview: Europe in Focus, Then Elections Around the World
Paying Article

March 25, 2024 11:15 AM UTC

March 21, 2024

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Inflationary Pressures Caused CBRT to Restart Tightening Cycle and Hike Key Rate to 50%
Paying Article

March 21, 2024 4:26 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite predictions were centred around no change, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) increased the policy rate by 500 bps to 50% on March 21 due to strong inflation, and pressure on FX and reserves lately. According to the CBRT statement, the current level of the policy rate will be mainta

March 07, 2024

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Turkiye: AKP Wants to Win Major Cities Back on March 31
Paying Article

March 7, 2024 2:37 PM UTC

Bottom line: Unless something unforeseen occurs, we think Justice and Development Party (AKP) will likely remain the highest rated party in the Turkish local elections on March 31, winning more local municipalities than any other parties in Turkiye. Despite AKP’s main target is to win back the maj

March 04, 2024

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Turkiye’s Closer to 70% Inflation in February Exceeds Expectations
Paying Article

March 4, 2024 3:10 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on March 4 that Turkish CPI surged to 67.1% annually and 4.5% monthly in February, and annual inflation swung to a 15-month high due to increases in hotel, education and food prices. We feel upside risks remain strong which would likely co

February 29, 2024

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Exceeding Expectations: Turkish Economy Grew by 4.5% in 2023
Paying Article

February 29, 2024 12:28 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on February 29 that the economy expanded by 4.5% last year, and 4.0% YoY in Q4 2023 driven by the buoyant demand and lending, high government expenditure and investments during the election-and-earthquake-year. Despite strong Q4 figure, we

February 22, 2024

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CBRT Left the Key Rate Constant at 45%
Paying Article

February 22, 2024 12:53 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) ended monetary hiking cycle under new governor, and kept the key rate stable at 45% after eighth straight rate hikes since presidential elections last May. According to the CBRT statement, the current level of the policy rate will be maint

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EMFX: Carry and Domestic Fundamentals Rather Than the USD
Paying Article

February 22, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Most major EMFX currencies have performed better than the Euro or the Japanese Yen against the USD in 2024 (Figure 1).  This is due to carry trades in Latam, but elsewhere reflects global equity love on Indian equities or domestic fundamentals.  This resilience for Brazilian Real/Indi

February 05, 2024

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Turkiye’s Inflation Roared Strong in January: Biggest Monthly Jump since August
Paying Article

February 5, 2024 8:57 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on February 5 that Turkish CPI surged to 64.9% annually and 6.7% monthly in January, which marked the biggest jump in the last five months, due to recent hikes in salaries and pensions, continued adverse impacts of deterioration in pricing

February 01, 2024

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Current Account Deficit Continues to Give Pain to Turkish Economy
Paying Article

February 1, 2024 11:59 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkiye continues to struggle due to high current account deficits (CAD) in the recent years as it has been a structural feature of Turkiye's economy for far longer. Annualized CAD stood at $49.6 billion as of November 2023, partly due to trade deficit that slightly improved in 2023. We

January 25, 2024

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CBRT Started the New Year with a 250 bps Rate Hike
Paying Article

January 25, 2024 11:52 AM UTC

Bottom Line: As we pencilled a 250 bps policy rate hike by Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) on January 25 MPC meeting, CBRT continued its monetary tightening cycle by lifting the key rate from 42.5% to 45%. This is the eighth straight rate hike by CBRT since May presidential elections, simply to fight

January 18, 2024

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EM Europe/CIS: Country Risk Ratings

January 18, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for EM Europe/CIS countries including Russia, Ukraine and Turkey. 

January 11, 2024

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Webinar Recording December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
Paying Article

January 11, 2024 8:22 AM UTC

You can now access the webinar for the December Outlook here. 
To read the individual chapters please see the weblink below.  
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
China Outloo

January 08, 2024

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Charting our Views December Outlook
Freemium Article

January 8, 2024 9:05 AM UTC

Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
Economic Scenarios 
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
Brazil Policy Rate and CPI Inflation (YoY, %)
China Outlook: Headwinds To China Growth (here)
Japan Outlook: Normalizing

January 03, 2024

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Turkiye’s Inflation Reaccelerated Fast in December to 64.8%
Paying Article

January 3, 2024 8:33 AM UTC

Figure 1: CPI (YoY, % Change) and Policy Rate (%), January 2021 – December 2023
Source: TUIK, Datastream, Continuum Economics
When annual rate of changes (%) in the CPI’s main groups are examined in December, we see that housing with 40.4% was the main group with the lowest annual increase while h

January 02, 2024

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December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
Paying Article

January 2, 2024 9:53 AM UTC

Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
China Outlook: Headwinds To China Growth (here)
Japan Outlook: Normalizing Monetary Policy Soon (here)
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook:

December 21, 2023

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CBRT Continued Monetary Tightening Cycle on December 21, but with a Lesser Pace
Paying Article

December 21, 2023 12:19 PM UTC

Figure 1: CPI (YoY, % Change) and Policy Rate (%), January 2021 – December 2023
Source: Turkish Statistical Institute, Datastream, Continuum Economics
The CBRT raised the policy rate from 40% to 42.5% on December 21 MPC meeting to establish the disinflation course as soon as possible, to anchor infl

December 19, 2023

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December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
Paying Article

December 19, 2023 3:15 PM UTC

Japan Outlook: Normalizing Monetary Policy Soon (here)
DM FX Outlook: The Year of the Yen (here)
EM FX Outlook: USD Decline v Inflation Differentials (here)
Technical Analysis Quarterly Chartbook (here)

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EM FX Outlook: USD Decline v Inflation Differentials
Paying Article

December 19, 2023 9:59 AM UTC

·        In spot terms, we see the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) and Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) rising against the USD as Fed rate cuts narrow interest rate differentials and a move away from an overvalued USD occurs.  Brazilian Real (BRL) and Mexican Peso (MXN) will likely be stable against the USD

December 18, 2023

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Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024
Paying Article

December 18, 2023 3:42 PM UTC

·     Uncertainty still prevails around this central view.  The impact of lagged monetary tightening could be greater than our estimates and deliver mild recessions in some DM countries.  We also feel that the disinflationary process could be stronger and this would help bring inflation back

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EMEA Outlook: Inflationary Pressures Remain Strong
Paying Article

December 18, 2023 10:01 AM UTC

Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics
Risks to Our Views
Source: Continuum Economics
EMEA Dynamics:  Inflationary Concerns Remain High
EMEA economies continue to be squeezed by macroeconomic problems such as elevated inflation and financial pressures. We think country specific factors, geopolitics,

December 04, 2023

Moderate Increase in Turkiye’s Inflation in November
Paying Article

December 4, 2023 11:28 AM UTC

Figure 1: CPI (YoY, % Change) and Policy Rate (%), January 2021 – November 2023
Source: Turkish Statistical Institute, Datastream, Continuum Economics
When annual rate of changes (%) in the CPI's main groups are examined in November, we see that housing with 37.5% was the main group with the lowest

November 30, 2023

Turkish Economy Expands 5.9% in Q3 2023
Paying Article

November 30, 2023 1:40 PM UTC

Figure 1: GDP (%, YoY), Q3 2019 – Q3 2023
Source: Datastream, Continuum Economics
When the activities which constitute GDP are analyzed in Q3, construction sector made the highest contribution to the economy with an 8.1% YoY rise, followed by 5.7% in the industry sector and 5.1% in the financial and

November 23, 2023

Sixth Straight Rate Hike: CBRT Continued Strong Monetary Tightening
Paying Article

November 23, 2023 12:53 PM UTC

Figure 1: Key Rate (%), September 2020 – November 2023
Source: Datastream
The CBRT raised the policy rate from 35% to 40% on November 23 MPC meeting to establish the disinflation course as soon as possible, to anchor inflation expectations, to control the deterioration in pricing behaviour and to s

November 10, 2023

Turkiye: Macroeconomic Problems to Limit Long Term Growth
Paying Article

November 10, 2023 10:01 AM UTC

Figure 1: Turkiye GDP Growth Forecasts to 2030 (%) 
Source: Continuum Economics/Datastream
A number of forces impact our long-term growth forecast for Turkiye. 
Figure 2: Turkiye 15+ Population Forecasts to 2030 (Thousand) 
Source: Continuum Economics/Datastream
Figure 3: Turkiye Capacity Utilization

November 03, 2023

Turkish Inflation Continued Its Spiking Cycle in October
Paying Article

November 3, 2023 8:08 AM UTC

Figure 1: Inflation (YoY, % Change), October 2018 – October 2023
Source: Turkish Statistical Institute, Datastream, Continuum Economics
When annual rate of changes (%) in the CPI’s main groups are examined in October, we see that housing with 25.9% was the main group with the lowest annual increas

October 27, 2023

CBR Maintains Strong Hawkish Stance by Lifting the Rate to 15%
Paying Article

October 27, 2023 1:34 PM UTC

Figure 1: $/Ruble, October 2022 - October 2023
Source: Datastream
According to the Monetary Policy press release by the CBR today, CBR remained concerned about multiple issues such as higher inflationary pressure seen across an increasingly broader range of goods and services, growing domestic dema

October 26, 2023

CBRT Continued Strong Monetary Tightening on October 26 MPC
Paying Article

October 26, 2023 3:35 PM UTC

Figure 1: Key Rate (%), September 2020 – October 2023
Source: Datastream 
The CBRT raised the policy rate from 30% to 35% on October 26 MPC meeting to establish the disinflation course as soon as possible, to anchor inflation expectations, to control the deterioration in pricing behaviour and to s

October 19, 2023

CBRT will Likely Halt Tightening Cycle Transiently on October 26 MPC
Paying Article

October 19, 2023 10:52 AM UTC

Figure 1: Key Rate (%), September 2020 – September 2023
Source: Datastream 
Despite inflation remained on the upside in September (there are still signs that inflation will continue to spike in the upcoming months mostly due to deterioration in pricing behaviour), cost and demand pressures and slo