Eurozone: PMI Slump Shows Energy Surge Constraining Activity, Not Just Hitting Costs

May 21, 2026 8:36 AM UTC

Once again surprising on the downside flash Eurozone Composite PMI fell to 47.5 in May from 48.8 in April and below the 50.0 no-change mark for the second successive month. The latest reading thereby signalled a further and steeper m/m reduction in business activity, was the sharpest since October 2

South Africa Inflation Quickens to 4.0% y/y in April

May 20, 2026 7:29 PM UTC

Bottom Line: South Africa’s annual inflation climbed to 4.0% in April, driven by surging fuel and transport costs following the outbreak of war in Iran, according to StatsSA's May 20 announcement. Consumer prices also rose by 1.1% month-on-month. Given South Africa's reliance on fuel imports, infl

UK CPI Review: Inflation Falls Broadly But A Calm Before the Storm?

May 20, 2026 6:42 AM UTC

What are energy induced price rises are now very evident, even more so in the latest PPI data very much contrasting with the more benign picture in April’s more closely watched CPI figures. Thus, having seen headline CPI jump to 3.3% in March and where services rose to 4.5% on the back if what may

U.S. April Pending Home Sales - Resilient to fading easing hopes

May 19, 2026 2:12 PM UTC

Pending home sales have seen a 1.4% increase in April, slightly above expectations,  a third straight rise and turning yr/yr growth positive at 3.2% for the first time since November.

ECB: Not the Only Game in Town – But A Time for Hair Shirts?

May 19, 2026 11:22 AM UTC

When hearing ECB Council policy thinking one can get the impression that it sees only a direct link from changes in its policy rate to inflation rather than the latter succumbing to a range of factors, this being the transmission mechanism.  Most important of course is the economic damage that chan

UK Labor Market: Core Wage Pressures hit New Cycle -Low as Jobs Growth into Sharp Reverse

May 19, 2026 6:56 AM UTC

Even more clearly, there are further signs that the labor market is haemorrhaging jobs both clearly and broadly with fresh falls in the more authoritative measure of jobs covering payrolls.  Indeed, private sector payrolls are still falling, down over 0.8 ppt in y/y terms with the m/m drop the larg

U.S. May NAHB Homebuilders Index - Still little direction in trend

May 18, 2026 2:11 PM UTC

May’s NAHB homebuilders’ index of 37 has seen a stronger than expected correction from April’s dip to 34, but remains slightly below March’s index of 38 if level with those of January and February.

Russian Inflation Slows to 5.6% in April

May 16, 2026 1:42 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Russia’s annual inflation continued its decreasing pattern moderately in April, and stood at 5.6% y/y owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening, relative resilience of RUB and softening core inflation. Despite Central Bank of Russia (CBR) predicts annual infla

U.S. April Industrial Production - Led by a bounce in autos, but underlying trend positive

May 15, 2026 1:30 PM UTC

Following an upbeat Empire Sate manufacturing survey for May, April industrial production gives further evidence that the manufacturing sector is in good health, rising by a stronger than expected 0.7% overall with a 0.6% increase in manufacturing, though half of the latter came from autos.

U.S. May Empire State Manufacturing Survey - Strength in both activity and prices

May 15, 2026 12:45 PM UTC

May’s Empire State manufacturing index at 19.6, up from 11.0 in April, is the highest since April 2022, giving further evidence that the manufacturing sector is holding up well despite the Middle east conflict. 

U.S. April Retail Sales - Ex auto and gasoline still showing underlying resilience

May 14, 2026 1:01 PM UTC

April retail sales with a rise of 0.5% overall, 0.7% ex autos and 0.5% ex autos and gasoline are in line with expectations, and while likely to be marginally negative overall in real terms the ex autos and gasoline data suggests continued consumer resilience. Initial and continued claims have both p

UK GDP Review: GDP Upside Surprises Continue, Correction Due or Fresh Trend?

May 14, 2026 6:59 AM UTC

Perhaps it is a supreme irony that just as the Labour government tears itself apart after disastrous election results last week, the actual real economy continues to surprise on the upside.  Notably, since taking office in July 2024, the economy has grown a cumulative 2%-plus, ie over 1% per year.?

U.S. April Budget Surplus falls yr/yr on tax cuts and defense spending

May 12, 2026 6:16 PM UTC

As is usually the case in April, a monthly budget surplus of $215.024bn has been recorded, but this is down from $258.4bn in April 2024, as tax cuts hit revenues.

U.S. April CPI - Subdued ex food, energy and what looks like one-time strength in shelter

May 12, 2026 1:08 PM UTC

April CPI is only marginally stronger than expected on the core rate, up by 0.4%, 0.376% before rounding, and the data not alarming outside of a one-time distortion in housing. The headline gain of 0.6% was as expected, and here the rise was a little firmer at 0.64% before rounding.

U.S. April NFIB survey stable but some worrying signs

May 12, 2026 12:01 PM UTC

April’s NFIB survey of Small Business Optimism shows the optimism index almost unchanged at 95.9 from to 95.8, following a 3.0 point drop in March to the lowest levels since April 2025, when tariffs were implemented. 

U.S. April Existing Home Sales - Flat picture, downside risk

May 11, 2026 2:13 PM UTC

April existing home sales at 4.02m were slightly softer than expected and up only 0.2% from March, but with March revised up to 4.01m from 3.98m the net result can be seen as close to consensus, while trend continues to have little direction.

U.S. April Employment - Charts and table

May 8, 2026 1:08 PM UTC

Payroll mostly shows resilience, but earnings losing momentum.

U.S. April Employment - Resilience should keep easing off the near term agenda

May 8, 2026 1:04 PM UTC

April’s non-farm payroll suggests the US economy continues to grow at a respectable pace in early Q2 with no signs of a hit from the oil shock yet. Payrolls increased by a stronger than expected 115k, with unemployment stable at 4.3% and the workweek stronger at 34.3 hours from 34.2. Average hourl

Eurozone: In Dire Straits?

May 8, 2026 10:55 AM UTC

Amid all the concern about the energy-induced surge in inflation resulting from the Middle East conflict, the impact on EZ real economy looks to be sizeable and growing.  High profile PMI numbers are flashing alarmingly, but the message from the April composite (at a 17-mth low) may actually be not

U.S. Initial Claims still very low, Q1 Productivity and Costs report shows strength in non-labor costs

May 7, 2026 1:05 PM UTC

Initial claims at 200k are up from last week’s exceptionally low 190k but still consistent with layoffs running at veery low levels. Q1 non-farm productivity at 0.8% is marginally below consensus and unit labor costs at 2.3% more significantly so but non-labor costs saw a strong 8.0% increase whic

U.S. April ADP Employment - Labor market still looking healthy

May 6, 2026 12:38 PM UTC

April’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 109k is slightly stronger than expected though not as strong as weekly ADP data had been hinting. Still, as the strongest increase since January 2025, it suggests the labor market is not weakening, suggesting Fed focus should be on inflation

RBA Review: Last Hike for Now?

May 5, 2026 5:14 AM UTC

The RBA March meeting hike rates to 4.35% on a 8-1 vote
Forward guidance seems to signal last hike for now

April Inflation Hits 32.4% y/y: Iran Conflict Drives Steeper Monthly Pressures

May 4, 2026 8:55 AM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced April inflation figures on May 4.   After hitting 30.9% annually in March, Turkiye’s inflation accelerated to 32.4% y/y (4.2% m/m) in April as the economy remains under pressure from Iran war. April reading was driven by rising housin

U.S. April ISM Manufacturing - Stable but with higher inflationary pressure

May 1, 2026 2:22 PM UTC

April’s ISM manufacturing index at 52.7 is unchanged from March and slightly below expectations but this still means four straight clearly positive readings from an index that had been running below neutral for the ten preceding months.

Shock for Russia: Economy Contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2026

April 30, 2026 4:48 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Preliminary figures indicate that the Russian economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2026, marking its first decline since Q1 2023. This downturn was driven by a combination of high interest rates, persistent sanctions, supply-side constraints, and a strong RUB. The mining and manufacturing s

Eurozone GDP & HICP Review: Fragile Resilience?

April 30, 2026 9:30 AM UTC

We continue to be critical of the ECB assertion (at least before the Iran War) that the EZ economy was in a ‘good place’.  This to us was too backward looking and amid some signs in both hard, soft and monetary data, that the economy going into the last quarter was soft and fragile.  Indeed, f

U.S. March Durable Goods Orders, Advance Goods Trade, Housing Starts and Permits - More positives than negatives

April 29, 2026 1:16 PM UTC

The latest US data is mixed though with more positives than negatives, implying the economy entered the oil shock with solid momentum. The data does not suggest any major revisions to expectations for tomorrow’s Q1 GDP release are needed, though any revisions are likely to be modestly upwards.

U.S. April Consumer Confidence remains resilient, labor market view improves

April 28, 2026 2:26 PM UTC

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, as was the case in March, has proven surprisingly resilient to worries on gasoline prices, with the index seeing a third straight marginal rise, to 92.8 from 92.2.

U.S. April Final Michigan CSI - Revised higher but still weak

April 24, 2026 2:22 PM UTC

The final April Michigan CSI of 49.8 is up from the preliminary 47.6 but still down from 53.3 in March and a record monthly low. 

South Africa Inflation Hit 3.1% y/y in March but Pressures Signal Looming Spike

April 23, 2026 10:40 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Following the decline in headline inflation to 3.0% y/y in February, South Africa’s inflation rose to 3.1% y/y in March. On a monthly basis, prices increased by 0.6% and the main drivers behind the rise were housing, utilities and financial services. The surge was driven by a combinat

UK CPI Review: Inflation Being Fuelled But Wages Still on the Wane?

April 22, 2026 6:35 AM UTC

What are energy induced price rises are now very evident, most notably in PPI data as well as the more closely watched CPI figures. Thus after a stable 3.0% (a 10-mth low) February’s headline – matching the consensus, headline CPI jumped to 3.3% in March.  Services, however, rose from 4.3% a fo

U.S. March Pending Home Sales - Stronger than expected but no clear trend

April 21, 2026 2:18 PM UTC

Pending home sales have seen an unexpected 1.5% increase in March, a second straight gain, though the declines of December and January have still not been fully reversed, and the yr/yr picture remains marginally negative.

U.S. March Retail Sales - Underlying resilience, lower taxes may be helping

April 21, 2026 1:02 PM UTC

March retail sales with a 1.7% rise, 1.9% ex autos are stronger than expected. Most of the rise is on the surging price of gasoline, though sales ex auto and gasoline with a 0.6% increase are on the firm side of expectations, with February revised up to 0.6% from 0.4% and January to 0.4% from 0.2%.

UK Labor Market: Lower Jobless Rates Misleading, as Wage Pressures hit New Cycle -Low

April 21, 2026 6:54 AM UTC

There are further signs that the labor market is haemorrhaging jobs both clearly and broadly with fresh falls in the more authoritative measure of jobs covering payrolls.  Indeed, private sector payrolls are still falling, down over 0.5 ppt in y/y terms.  Admittedly, headlines may be formed around

Canada - BoC Q1 Business Outlook Survey - Stronger but not fully catching war impact

April 20, 2026 7:42 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada’s Q1 business outlook survey released earlier today was generally improved, with the business outlook indicator of -0.36 from -1.78 the strongest since Q4 2022, with respondents reporting less of a drag from trade tensions. The survey may be however overstating current optimism,

Eurozone; ECB Tone More Neutral Than Suggested by March Meeting Market Reaction?

April 16, 2026 12:18 PM UTC

Little new can be taken from the minutes to the March ECB Council 19 meeting, save that at least to us the ECB was too optimistic about growth and too pessimistic about inflation. In regard to the latter, while acknowledging tighter financial conditions, the ECB still seemed to be downplaying what a

UK GDP Review (Apr 16): Fresh But Fleeting Momentum Before the War

April 16, 2026 7:10 AM UTC

Without the outbreak of the Iran War there was already a split within the MPC about the policy outlook and that such divisions may have been accentuated by this latest GDP update which showed a very much above consensus m/m rise of 0.5%, the strongest in 14 months. But of course, the conflict has ch