U.S. June ISM Manufacturing - Some easing in inflationary pressures

July 1, 2026 2:21 PM UTC

June’s ISM manufacturing index of 53.3 is down from 54.0 in May but still above the 52.7 seen in both March and April. Detail shows some easing of inflationary pressure. Perhaps more notable is an unusually large downward revision to the S and P manufacturing PMI, to 53.9 from 55.7, released 15 mi

EZ HICP Review: Absence Second-Round Effects Continues

July 1, 2026 1:42 PM UTC

Contrary to some thinking, EZ HICP inflation continues to behave, both absolutely and relatively – ie to what looks ever excessive ECB price thinking.  The question must be if and when the ECB chooses to note friendlier price and costs signals, rather than pander to the upside prices risks that o

U.S. June ADP Employment - Slightly slower, far from weak

July 1, 2026 12:37 PM UTC

June’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 98k is on the weak side of expectations and similarly below consensus forecasts for private sector payrolls tomorrow. It is possible that payrolls could outperform ADP data if payrolls capture more temporary jobs created by the World Cup. Our

EZ HICP Review: Absence Second-Round Effects Continues

July 1, 2026 10:41 AM UTC

Contrary to some thinking, EZ HICP inflation continues to behave, both absolutely and relatively – ie to what looks ever excessive ECB price thinking.  The question must be if and when the ECB chooses to note friendlier price and costs signals, rather than pander to the upside prices risks that o

UK GDP Outlook Update – Still Fragile With Surveys Negative

June 30, 2026 4:13 PM UTC

It is the relative norm for an economy to be offering disparate signals at any one juncture, if not actual conflicting ones.  This is certainly the case in the UK currently, where upbeat Q1 GDP data of 0.6% q/q have been, confirmed and notably by a perkier consumer.   Such shots of real growth ar

U.S. May JOLTS report shows job openings trending higher but June Consumer Confidence shows pessimism on jobs

June 30, 2026 2:30 PM UTC

May’s JOLTS report shows a marginal 9k increase in job openings, but after a strong 698k increase in April this is stronger than expected and there has been a clear pick up in trend in recent months. The 3-month average of 224k is the highest since March 2022 as is the 6-month average of 125k.

U.S. Personal Income and Spending, GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and Initial Claims - Mostly firm but consumer spending revised lower

June 25, 2026 1:40 PM UTC

The latest US data is mostly strong, with an upward revision to Q1 GDP, stronger than expected May personal income and spending, still firm core PCE prices, lower initial claims and strength in May durable goods orders outside a fall in transport. However the Q1 GDP revision was mixed, with a signif

U.S. May New Home Sales - Second straight decline suggests trend is weakening

June 24, 2026 2:21 PM UTC

May new home sales with a 7.3% decline to 580k have extended a 5.7% decline in April. Housing indicators are mixed overall but new home sales appear to have broken out of what had been a fairly stable range to the downside.

U.S. June S&P PMIs - Manufacturing stronger still, Services less subdued

June 23, 2026 1:57 PM UTC

June’s preliminary S and P PMIs ae both improved, manufacturing impressively so at 55.7 from 55.1. Services are still subdued but at 51.3 from 50.7 are at their highest since February.

U.S. Initial Claims, June Philly Fed - Slightly improved but some signs of fading momentum

June 18, 2026 12:54 PM UTC

Initial claims slipped to 226k from 230k while June’s Philly Fed manufacturing survey increased to 10.3 from -0.4, both in line with expectations, improved but not as strong as some recent releases.

Fuel and Transportation Costs Pushed South African Inflation to 4.5% in May

June 18, 2026 10:25 AM UTC

Bottom Line: South Africa’s annual inflation climbed to 4.5% in May driven by surging fuel and transport costs, according to StatsSA's announcement. The core inflation surged to 3.8% y/y in May from 3.6% in the previous month, marking the highest reading since October 2024. While we anticipate tha

U.S. May Pending Home Sales - Fourth straight gain from January's record low

June 17, 2026 2:19 PM UTC

Pending home sales have seen a 3.8% increase in May, well above expectations and a fourth straight rise, though still not fully reversing the declines of December and January that took the series to a record low.

U.S. May Retail Sales - Impressive resilience

June 17, 2026 1:01 PM UTC

May retail sales continue to show impressive resilience to downward pressure on real disposable income from rising gasoline prices, with equity strength and lower taxes offsetting to the headwinds, as well as recent resilience in employment, Overall sales rose by 0.9%, with gains of 0.8% ex auto and

UK CPI Review: Inflation Peaking?

June 17, 2026 7:40 AM UTC

What have been energy induced price rises are starting to ease and may do so further In June before the OFGEM induced price rise hits July numbers.  But a less worrying picture emerges in the latest (ie May) CPI and even PPI data.  Indeed, once again, actual CPI have offered a more benign picture

U.S. May Housing Starts and Permits - Multiple starts plunge, elsewhere moves were modest

June 16, 2026 12:59 PM UTC

May housing starts are sharply weaker than expected, down 15.4% to 1.177m, the weakest since May 2020 during the pandemic. However the fall was largely due to a 40.2% plunge in the volatile multiples sector. Single starts fell by a modest 1.9%. 

U.S. June Empire State Manufacturing Survey - A correction lower, still positive

June 15, 2026 12:47 PM UTC

June’s Empire State manufacturing index at 5.7 implies moderate manufacturing growth after two straight strong months, with May having risen to 19.6, the highest since April 2022. 

U.S. Preliminary June Michigan CSI - Rebounds from a very weak May final as inflation expectations correct lower

June 12, 2026 2:43 PM UTC

The preliminary June Michigan CSI at 48.9 has seen a surprising bounce from May’s final and record low of 44.8 but is not far off May’s preliminary of 48.2. Gasoline prices remain high but have slipped from May’s highs though the dip in May’s final now looks overstated.

UK GDP Review: GDP Upside Surprises Persist?

June 12, 2026 6:56 AM UTC

Perhaps it is a supreme irony that just as business surveys suggest clear weakness, if not fresh contraction, the actual real economy has surprised on the upside, even now into the second month after the Middle East conflict started.  Indeed, and in perspective, official GDP data suggest that since

Russian Inflation Drops to 5.3% in May, Hitting Lowest Level Since August 2023

June 10, 2026 5:41 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Russia’s annual inflation continued its decreasing pattern moderately in May and slowed to 5.3% y/y. This deceleration was driven by the lagged effects of previous aggressive monetary tightening, a relatively resilient ruble, and softening core inflation. Marking the lowest level sinc

U.S. May CPI - Surprising fall in transport services despite continued gains in air fares

June 10, 2026 1:08 PM UTC

May CPI is in line with expectations at 0.5% overall but the core rate ex food and energy was softer than expected at 0.2%, with the rise before rousing being 0.208%.  The most surprising restraint on the data was a 0.6% fall in transportation services, despite continued gains in air fares.

South African Economy Grew by 1.9% y/y in Q1

June 9, 2026 2:45 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) released the Q1 2026 growth figures on June 9. Economy grew by 1.9% y/y (0.5 q/q) in Q1, accelerating from an annual 0.8% advance in Q4 2025 supported by stronger outputs from service and agricultural sectors and a positive trade balance despite weakne

U.S. May NFIB survey - Signs of stagflation

June 9, 2026 11:39 AM UTC

May’s NFIB survey of Small Business Optimism shows the optimism index with a modest drop to 95.3 from 95.9 from to 95.8, taking it to its lowest since October 2024 just before a sharp post-election bounce.

Canada May Employment - Recent weakness largely erased, wages correct lower

June 5, 2026 2:05 PM UTC

Canada’s May employment report keeps the series volatile, with a strong 87.8k bounce reducing unemployment to a four month low of 6.6%, from April’s 6-month high of 6.9%. This should ease any Bank of Canada worries over the weak Q1 GDP data which saw a second straight, if marginal, decline. The

Inflation Increased to 32.6% y/y in May due to Surges in Energy Prices

June 5, 2026 1:26 PM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced May inflation figures on June 5.  After hitting 32.4% annually in April, Turkiye’s inflation surged to 32.6% in May due to rising housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuel costs. We now assess Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) will

U.S. May Employment - Charts and table

June 5, 2026 1:23 PM UTC

Payroll remains firm, with the gains led by local government, leisure/hospitality and health. 

U.S. May Employment - Surprise came from local government and leisure and hospitality

June 5, 2026 1:19 PM UTC

May’s non-farm payroll is significantly stronger than expected with a rise of 172k though the private sector was less impressive at 120k, if still healthy. Upward revisions to March and April add to the positive message.  In addition to government, leisure and hospitality with a 70k increase was

U.S. Initial Claims up in holiday week, Q1 Productivity and Unit Labor Costs both revised down

June 4, 2026 12:56 PM UTC

Initial claims at 225k in the week to May 30 are up from 212k and the highest since February 7, though the data should be treated with some caution given that the week included the Memorial Day holiday, which can cause seasonal adjustment difficulties.

U.S. April JOLTS report - Openings rise impressive, other detail less so

June 2, 2026 2:26 PM UTC

April’s JOLTS report has shown a much stronger than expected 731k increase in job openings, more than fully reversing two straight declines to raise the 3-month average to 124k, its highest since November 2022. The 6-month average moved back above neutral after falling below in March, now standing

EZ HICP Review: Headline Rise Capped by Food & Energy, Services Jump Seasonal?

June 2, 2026 9:50 AM UTC

Even given what seem to be a series of reassuring aspects, the May flash HICP data is unlikely to have a material impact on ECB thinking.  As expected, and helped by German fuel subsides which kept the energy rise to around zero, headline HICP rose just 0.2 ppt to 3.2%, still a 32-mth high, but whe

U.S. May ISM Manufacturing - Supported by AI, inflationary pressures pause

June 1, 2026 2:27 PM UTC

May’s ISM manufacturing index at 54.0 is stronger than expected, up from 52.7 in April and the highest since May 2022. This is consistent with several other manufacturing surveys, notably the S and P national survey, and suggests the manufacturing sector is gaining momentum, most likely fueled by

Turkish Economy Grew by a Below-Expectation 2.5% y/y in Q1

June 1, 2026 12:38 PM UTC

Bottom Line: The Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced Q1 2026 growth figures on June 1. Turkish economy expanded by a below-expectations 2.5% y/y in Q1. The main drag came from net trade as annual exports and imports shrank by 12.7% and 2%, respectively, while industrial sector contracted

Canada Q1 GDP details weak though preliminary estimate for April suggests a bounce in Q2

May 29, 2026 1:40 PM UTC

Canada’s Q1 GDP outcome of -0.1% annualized was significantly weaker than the 1.5% expected by the Bank of Canada and combined with surprisingly soft core CPI data for further damages the case for a BoC tightening in response to higher energy prices. Monthly data at -0.1% for March also disappoint

U.S. April Advance Goods Trade - Positive for Q2 GDP, but inventories may provide some offset

May 29, 2026 12:53 PM UTC

April’s advance US trade deficit of $82.4bn is narrower than expected and down from $$85.3bn in March. Exports rose by 4.0% while imports rose by 1.9%. Earlier price data had shown gains of 3.3% for exports and 1.9% for imports.

U.S. April New Home Sales - A below trend month

May 28, 2026 2:22 PM UTC

April new home sales with a 6.2% decline to 622k are on the weak side of trend which is showing signs of losing momentum, if not dramatically yet. That May’s NAHB homebuilders’ index picked up from a weak April cautions against reading too much into this data.

U.S. Personal Income and Spending, Durable Goods Orders, GDP and Initial Claims - Consumers look vulnerable

May 28, 2026 1:39 PM UTC

The latest US data can be seen as on balance softer than expected, with a falling savings ratio in April suggesting downside risks to consumers, with consumer spending with inventories bringing a downward revision to Q1 GDP.  Core PCE prices were softer than expected in April but revised up in Q1.

U.S. May Consumer Confidence - Holding up better than Michigan CSI

May 26, 2026 2:22 PM UTC

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index at 93.1 is down from April’s 93.8 but only because April was revised up from 92.8. May’s index is the first decline since January. The index is holding up better than the record low Michigan CSI. The Conference Board index tends to be more sensi

U.S. Final May Michigan CSI - Unusually large downward revision as inflation expectations accelerate

May 22, 2026 2:16 PM UTC

The final May Michigan CSI of 44.8 is an unusually sharp downward revision from the preliminary 48.2 and down further from April’s 49.8 as well as a fresh record low. It appears that consumer patience over finding a resolution to the Middle East conflict is exhausted.