U.S. September ISM Manufacturing - Prices regaining momentum

October 1, 2026 2:26 PM UTC

September’s ISM manufacturing index of 54.5 from 54.6 is almost unchanged and still healthy if remaining off July’s 55.3 high. Prices paid are accelerating, rising to 77.9 after two months at 71.1, though not yet back at April’s high of 84.6.

U.S. September ADP Employment - Consistent with lower initial claims

September 30, 2026 12:30 PM UTC

September’s ADP estimate of private sector employment of 90k is on the firm side of expectations and a 3-month high for the ADP report. It leaves us comfortable with our 100k forecasts for both private sector and overall non-farm payrolls. 

EZ HICP Review: Higher Inflation Ahead. How Will the ECB Respond?

September 29, 2026 4:27 PM UTC

Headline annual inflation is likely to increase again in September given the push from higher oil and gas prices. CPI numbers from member countries such as Spain already point to a likely strong jump in the EZ September while the increase in the European Commission Selling Prices indicator also back

EZ HICP Review: Higher Inflation Ahead. How Will the ECB Respond?

September 29, 2026 4:26 PM UTC

Headline annual inflation is likely to increase again in September given the push from higher oil and gas prices. CPI numbers from member countries such as Spain already point to a likely strong jump in the EZ September while the increase in the European Commission Selling Prices indicator also back

U.S. September Consumer Confidence down sharply, August Job Openings slip

September 29, 2026 2:33 PM UTC

September consumer confidence at 81.9 from 88.6 is the weakest since April 2014 with consumers worrying about prices, jobs and interest rates. August job openings fell by 256k to 7.079m, the weakest level since December 2025, though this signal is less negative than from the confidence data.

U.S. July Durable Goods Orders - Some loss of momentum in Q3 to date

September 25, 2026 12:53 PM UTC

August durable goods orders are unchanged, a little stronger than expected overall, but the ex transport gain of 0.3% is weaker than expected and even with July revised up to 0.7% from 0.4% Q3 data to data has been slower than Q2’s. 

U.S. July Durable Goods Orders - Some loss of momentum in Q3 to date

September 25, 2026 12:50 PM UTC

August durable goods orders are unchanged, a little stronger than expected overall, but the ex transport gain of 0.3% is weaker than expected and even with July revised up to 0.7% from 0.4% Q3 data to data has been slower than Q2’s. 

U.S. August New Home Sales - More strong data but this one will be hard to sustain

September 24, 2026 2:14 PM UTC

August new home sales with a 6.4% rise to 684k have more than fully erased a 4.3% July decline (previously reported as -10.5%). This continues the recent string of stronger than expected US data, even in housing, identified by Fed Chairman Warsh at Jackson Hole and one of two areas of weakness, alon

EZ PMIs Show Ongoing Growth Momentum in Q3

September 23, 2026 8:42 AM UTC

The S&P flash Eurozone PMI signalled a quickening in the pace of activity during September with the composite index rising to 53.1 from 52 before and boosted by rapid gains in the service sector and ongoing growth in the manufacturing sector. With September’s number now in hand the PMIs point to E

U.S. August Industrial Production - Surprising dip in manufacturing

September 18, 2026 1:46 PM UTC

August industrial production was unchanged with a very surprising 0.3% decline in manufacturing, its first decline since three straight declines were seen in Q4 of 2025. While one month does not make a trend the manufacturing losses were broad based and thus not easy to dismiss.

U.S. August Industrial Production - Surprising dip in manufacturing

September 18, 2026 1:41 PM UTC

August industrial production was unchanged with a very surprising 0.3% decline in manufacturing, its first decline since three straight declines were seen in Q4 of 2025. While one month does not make a trend the manufacturing losses were broad based and thus not easy to dismiss.

U.S. Initial Claims, September Philly Fed, August Housing Starts and Permits - More positives than negatives

September 17, 2026 1:17 PM UTC

The latest data is mixed but positives outweigh the negatives. Initial claims at 196k from 206k are very low indeed and take on extra significance in that this is the survey week for September’s non-farm payroll. September’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of 37.8 is down from 47.4 but still very

BOE Keeps Rates Unchanged but November Meeting a Close Call

September 17, 2026 12:29 PM UTC

As expected, the BOE kept rates unchanged with the committee voting 6-3 in favour of staying at 3.75%. MPC members Green, Mann and Pill voted to increase rates by 25bp, as they did in July. Today’s monetary policy statement is essentially unchanged from the July statement, with the focus still on

BOE Keeps Rates Unchanged but November Meeting a Close Call

September 17, 2026 12:26 PM UTC

As expected, the BOE kept rates unchanged with the committee voting 6-3 in favour of staying at 3.75%. MPC members Green, Mann and Pill voted to increase rates by 25bp, as they did in July. Today’s monetary policy statement is essentially unchanged from the July statement, with the focus still on

U.S. August Retail Sales - Positive picture restored

September 16, 2026 12:53 PM UTC

August retail sales have surprised to the upside, restoring a positive picture after a weak July. Overall sales rose by 1.2%, as did sales ex autos and gasoline. Ex auto sales and the control group which contributes to GDP both increased by 1.4%, these gains more significantly above expectations tha

UK CPI Higher in August But as Expected

September 16, 2026 7:20 AM UTC

Headline inflation increased  to 3.1% in August from 2.9% before and in line with expectations with the largest upward contribution coming from transport and in particularly motor fuels. The figures are not a surprise given that July’s short-lived dip in petrol and diesel prices were reversed in

UK CPI Higher in August But as Expected

September 16, 2026 7:20 AM UTC

Headline inflation increased  to 3.1% in August from 2.9% before and in line with expectations with the largest upward contribution coming from transport and in particularly motor fuels. The figures are not a surprise given that July’s short-lived dip in petrol and diesel prices were reversed in

China August Activity Data Review: Further Divergence among the Three Horses

September 15, 2026 1:01 PM UTC

China’s economic imbalances continued to deepen in August, as sluggish retail sales and a fixed-asset investment slump highlighted persistent weakness in domestic demand, with analysts expecting more policy stimulus from Beijing to stave off downside risks. Export and Industrial numbers again salv

UK CPI Preview: Headline Inflation to Increase on Higher Energy Costs but no Second Round Effects

September 14, 2026 9:24 AM UTC

·       Inflation figures will come ahead of BoE meeting on September 17 in which the Bank is expected to keep rates on hold. Headline annual inflation rose to 2.9% in July and is forecast to increase to 3.1% in August with core also ticking up to 2.7% from 2.6% previously. The numbers are un

UK CPI Preview: Headline Inflation to Increase on Higher Energy Costs but no Second Round Effects

September 14, 2026 9:22 AM UTC

·       Inflation figures will come ahead of BoE meeting on September 17 in which the Bank is expected to keep rates on hold. Headline annual inflation rose to 2.9% in July and is forecast to increase to 3.1% in August with core also ticking up to 2.7% from 2.6% previously. The numbers are un

U.S. August CPI - Telephone services, air fares and hotels lift the core rate

September 11, 2026 1:08 PM UTC

August CPI is not a shocker at 0.4% overall, but the core rate of 0.3% ex food and energy is above expectations and where the Fed would like it to be and suggests tightening on September 16 is now likely. Before rounding core CPI rose by 0.29% and overall CPI by 0.396%. Telephone services are the ma

U.S. August CPI - Telephone services, air fares and hotels lift the core rate

September 11, 2026 1:07 PM UTC

August CPI is not a shocker at 0.4% overall, but the core rate of 0.3% ex food and energy is above expectations and where the Fed would like it to be and suggests tightening on September 16 is now likely. Before rounding core CPI rose by 0.29% and overall CPI by 0.396%. Telephone services are the ma

UK GDP Growth defies expectations in July but expected to slow ahead

September 11, 2026 7:53 AM UTC

Contrary to expectations, the UK economy grew by 0.4% in July (on a month-on-month basis) against a forecast of zero growth. Activity during the month was driven by services (0.4%), production (0.2%) and construction (0.1%). The sector breakdown shows that growth in the services sector was driven pa

ECB Hikes by 25bp to 2.5%, leaves the door open – but no great urgency

September 10, 2026 3:16 PM UTC

Today’s decision to increase the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.5% came as no surprise given the uptick in headline euro area inflation, the energy market backdrop and recent comments from ECB members. President Lagarde in the press confidence said that today’s increase was a “no brainer” and a ?

ECB Hikes by 25bp to 2.5%, leaves the door open – but no great urgency

September 10, 2026 3:07 PM UTC

Today’s decision to increase the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.5% came as no surprise given the uptick in headline euro area inflation, the energy market backdrop and recent comments from ECB members. President Lagarde in the press confidence said that today’s increase was a “no brainer” and a ?

U.S. August Existing Home Sales - Trend subdued with hints of weakness

September 10, 2026 2:13 PM UTC

August existing home sales have seen a 2.0% decline to 3.98m, the weakest level since June 2025 and a third straight decline. Most housing sector indicators are subdued. Upward pressure on mortgage rates, and a potential Fed tightening next week, could add to the pressure.

U.S. August Employment - Bounce due to corrections in two sectors but could matter in a close Fed call

September 4, 2026 1:27 PM UTC

August non-farm payrolls are stronger than expected, 162k overall, 127k private, with upward back month revisions. Unemployment is steady at 4.1% and as expected as are average hourly earnings with a 0.3% rise, but the workweek at 34.4 hours is surprisingly strong. The payroll surprise looks correct

U.S. July Trade Deficit surge restrained by Service revisions

September 3, 2026 1:06 PM UTC

July’s trade deficit of $88.6bn is up from $71.2bn in June and the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit if $133.0bn in March 2025, though not quite as wide as expectations generated by advance goods data. Initial claims at 206k from 204k and continued claims at 1.779m from 1.771m are both marg

BOE September Preview: No 2026 Hike

September 2, 2026 10:30 AM UTC

·       BOE Bailey at Jackson hole highlighted the quite subdued 2nd round effects from the Iran war surge in energy prices, which suggests that the bulk of the MPC will likely not vote for a hike at the September 17 MPC meeting.  A risk does exist of a Q4 hike, though our central view is fo

U.S. July JOLTS Job Openings, August ISM Manufacturing - Softer than expected, but not weak

September 1, 2026 2:25 PM UTC

The latest US data is on the weak side of expectations though should not be seen as weak. August’s ISM manufacturing index of 54.6 is down from 55.6 in July though still stronger than every month in the first half of the year. July job openings increased by 89k, but the rise is more than fully off