U.S. Initial Claims remain low, Q2 Productivity and Unit Labor Costs healthy but Non-Labor Costs surge

August 6, 2026 1:07 PM UTC

Initial claims at 199k from 198k remain very low though continued claims at 1,801m from 1.777m hit a 4-week high. Claims data on balance are giving positive signals for July’s non-farm payroll. Q2 non-farm productivity at 1.4% is stronger than expected and Q2 unit labor costs at 1.3% softer than e

U.S. June JOLTS report shows job openings correcting lower but Q2 remains positive

August 4, 2026 2:14 PM UTC

June’s JOLTS report has shown a 178k decline in job openings with May revised to a 48k decline from a 9k increase. With April having seen a strong 698k increase the 3-month average is still firm at 157k, while the 6-month average is similar at 135k. Q1 also saw a strong rise at the start of the mo

U.S. Trade Deficit corrects lower in June but remains wider in Q2

August 4, 2026 12:57 PM UTC

June’s trade deficit of $73.3bn is in line with expectations and down from $77.6bn in May though still well above deficits of near $55bn in each month from January through April. This confirms a significant negative from net exports in Q2 GDP.

U.S. Trade Deficit corrects lower in June but remains wider in Q2

August 4, 2026 12:57 PM UTC

June’s trade deficit of $73.3bn is in line with expectations and down from $77.6bn in May though still well above deficits of near $55bn in each month from January through April. This confirms a significant negative from net exports in Q2 GDP.

U.S. July ISM Manufacturing - Strong but with supply problems

August 3, 2026 2:26 PM UTC

July’s ISM manufacturing index of 55.6 from 53.3 is stronger than expected and the highest since May 2022, suggesting this year’s manufacturing revival, led by AI-related business investment, is accelerating further.

EZ CPI: Boosted by Energy Prices

July 31, 2026 9:19 AM UTC

•    The July provisional CPI provided no major surprise with the headline 2.9% Yr/Yr figure boosted by energy prices, but core at 2.5% and CPI ex energy unchanged at 2.2% Yr/Yr. Combined with the latest negotiated wage settlement data, we see no signs of 2nd round effects. For the ECB the dat

EZ CPI and ECB Rate Prospects

July 31, 2026 9:16 AM UTC

•    The July provisional CPI provided no major surprise with the headline 2.9% Yr/Yr figure boosted by energy prices, but core at 2.5% and CPI ex energy unchanged at 2.2% Yr/Yr. Combined with the latest negotiated wage settlement data, we see no signs of 2nd round effects. For the ECB the dat

BOE: Split Does Not Mean September Hike

July 30, 2026 12:45 PM UTC

.   ·       Overall, the July MPC minutes and monetary policy report/press conference suggest that the MPC is not convinced of a September hike and a worsening of energy price rises and/or 2nd round effects would be required to shift the voting to a 25bps hike.  While the MPC has a hawkish

BOE: Split Does Not Mean September Hike

July 30, 2026 12:44 PM UTC

·       Overall, the July MPC minutes and monetary policy report/press conference suggest that the MPC is not convinced of a September hike and a worsening of energy price rises and/or 2nd round effects would be required to shift the voting to a 25bps hike.  While the MPC has a hawkish bias

U.S. July Consumer Confidence - Slight dip, labor market view slipping

July 28, 2026 2:20 PM UTC

July consumer confidence at 90.8 from 92.2 has largely reversed a rise in June, though the moves are fairly small, with confidence remaining weak and in a tight range. 

U.S. June Advance Goods Trade - Consensus data leaves net exports as a negative for Q2 GDP

July 28, 2026 12:53 PM UTC

June’s advance goods trade deficit of $101.5bn is in line with expectations but shows weakness in both imports and exports. The deficit is down from May’s $105.9bn but remains well above the January-April average of $82.0bn and implies that net exports will be a significant negative in Q2 GDP.

U.S. June Advance Goods Trade - Consensus data leaves net exports as a negative for Q2 GDP

July 28, 2026 12:52 PM UTC

June’s advance goods trade deficit of $101.5bn is in line with expectations but shows weakness in both imports and exports. The deficit is down from May’s $105.9bn but remains well above the January-April average of $82.0bn and implies that net exports will be a significant negative in Q2 GDP.

U.S. June Durable Goods Orders - Restrained by seasonal adjustments and possibly prices

July 27, 2026 12:49 PM UTC

June durable goods orders with a 0.3% rise were well below expectations with a bounce in aircraft orders implied by Boeing data failing to show up in seasonally adjusted data while the ex transport gain of 0.6% was the slowest since January, though this may in part reflect easing price pressures.

U.S. June Durable Goods Orders - Restrained by seasonal adjustments and possibly prices

July 27, 2026 12:49 PM UTC

June durable goods orders with a 0.3% rise were well below expectations with a bounce in aircraft orders implied by Boeing data failing to show up in seasonally adjusted data while the ex transport gain of 0.6% was the slowest since January, though this may in part reflect easing price pressures.

BOE Preview: Hawkish Noises

July 22, 2026 6:12 AM UTC

•    The BOE will likely maintain a hawkish bias on July 30, but are unlikely to signal a September hike. The June CPI did not really change this picture, with the core unchanged at 2.6%. Though BOE Bailey recently noted the unstable process (in the Straits of Hormuz and for energy prices), he

BOE Preview After CPI: Hawkish Noises

July 22, 2026 6:11 AM UTC

•    The BOE will likely maintain a hawkish bias on July 30, but are unlikely to signal a September hike. The June CPI did not really change this picture, with the core unchanged at 2.6%. Though BOE Bailey recently noted the unstable process (in the Straits of Hormuz and for energy prices), he

UK Fiscal Policy and the New Chancellor

July 21, 2026 6:18 AM UTC

·       Apprehension will exist until the Autumn budget, despite a repeated commitment by PM Burnham to stick to the fiscal rules.  Spending commitments are clearer than tax raises measures, while new Chancellor Healey may not be strong enough to curtail spending pressures.  This could mean

U.S. Preliminary July Michigan CSI - Bounce may be dated

July 17, 2026 2:13 PM UTC

July’s preliminary Michigan CSI at 54.4 has shown a stronger than expected bounce from June’s final of 49.5 reaching the highest level since February. The gain however may already be dated given the revival of hostilities in the Middle East. 

U.S. June Industrial Production - Subdued month, strong quarter

July 17, 2026 1:31 PM UTC

June industrial production has seen a second straight subdued month to follow a strong April, still leaving a healthy underlying picture but may temper some excessive optimism over the impact of rising AI-led investment. 

U.S. June Retail Sales - Underlying resilience persists, Initial Claims fall and Philly Fed surges

July 16, 2026 1:09 PM UTC

The latest US data is on the firm side of expectations. June retail sales are in line with expectations with a 0.2% increase and a gasoline-led 0.2% decline ex autos., but the control group that contributes to GDP maintains underlying strength with a rise of 0.5%. Weekly initial claims at 208k from

UK GDP and BOE Question

July 16, 2026 6:23 AM UTC

·       UK GDP rose 0.1% in May as expected, helped by services but with softness remaining in other areas.  H2 will depend on businesses and consumers, where a BOE rate hike would dent sentiment and spending – we look for no change in policy rates in 2026 however, followed by 2027 cuts. A

U.S. June CPI - Some volatile moves, but a clear relief for the Fed

July 14, 2026 1:12 PM UTC

June CPI is significantly softer than expected, both on the -0.4% headline and an unchanged outcome ex food and energy, with the respective figures before rounding being -0.422% and -0.017%. While there are a number of volatile declines in the breakdown and recent events in the Middle East present r

U.S. June NFIB survey - Bounce may be dated, prices strong

July 14, 2026 11:57 AM UTC

June’s NFIB survey of Small Business Optimism shows the optimism index at its highest since February at 97.4 from 95.3, a reading that was the lowest since October 2024 just before a sharp post-election bounce.

U.S. June Employment - Upside May surprise offset, but unemployment falls on lower labor force

July 2, 2026 1:12 PM UTC

June’s non-farm payroll is weaker than expected with a 57k increase, 49k private, with downward revisions to April and May. The slowing is consistent with an upturn in the initial and continued claims trends, though both were almost unchanged (-1k to 215k and +2k to 1.814m respectively)  in the l

U.S. June ISM Manufacturing - Some easing in inflationary pressures

July 1, 2026 2:21 PM UTC

June’s ISM manufacturing index of 53.3 is down from 54.0 in May but still above the 52.7 seen in both March and April. Detail shows some easing of inflationary pressure. Perhaps more notable is an unusually large downward revision to the S and P manufacturing PMI, to 53.9 from 55.7, released 15 mi

EZ HICP Review: Absence Second-Round Effects Continues

July 1, 2026 1:42 PM UTC

Contrary to some thinking, EZ HICP inflation continues to behave, both absolutely and relatively – ie to what looks ever excessive ECB price thinking.  The question must be if and when the ECB chooses to note friendlier price and costs signals, rather than pander to the upside prices risks that o

U.S. June ADP Employment - Slightly slower, far from weak

July 1, 2026 12:37 PM UTC

June’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 98k is on the weak side of expectations and similarly below consensus forecasts for private sector payrolls tomorrow. It is possible that payrolls could outperform ADP data if payrolls capture more temporary jobs created by the World Cup. Our

EZ HICP Review: Absence Second-Round Effects Continues

July 1, 2026 10:41 AM UTC

Contrary to some thinking, EZ HICP inflation continues to behave, both absolutely and relatively – ie to what looks ever excessive ECB price thinking.  The question must be if and when the ECB chooses to note friendlier price and costs signals, rather than pander to the upside prices risks that o

UK GDP Outlook Update – Still Fragile With Surveys Negative

June 30, 2026 4:13 PM UTC

It is the relative norm for an economy to be offering disparate signals at any one juncture, if not actual conflicting ones.  This is certainly the case in the UK currently, where upbeat Q1 GDP data of 0.6% q/q have been, confirmed and notably by a perkier consumer.   Such shots of real growth ar

U.S. May JOLTS report shows job openings trending higher but June Consumer Confidence shows pessimism on jobs

June 30, 2026 2:30 PM UTC

May’s JOLTS report shows a marginal 9k increase in job openings, but after a strong 698k increase in April this is stronger than expected and there has been a clear pick up in trend in recent months. The 3-month average of 224k is the highest since March 2022 as is the 6-month average of 125k.

U.S. Personal Income and Spending, GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and Initial Claims - Mostly firm but consumer spending revised lower

June 25, 2026 1:40 PM UTC

The latest US data is mostly strong, with an upward revision to Q1 GDP, stronger than expected May personal income and spending, still firm core PCE prices, lower initial claims and strength in May durable goods orders outside a fall in transport. However the Q1 GDP revision was mixed, with a signif

U.S. May New Home Sales - Second straight decline suggests trend is weakening

June 24, 2026 2:21 PM UTC

May new home sales with a 7.3% decline to 580k have extended a 5.7% decline in April. Housing indicators are mixed overall but new home sales appear to have broken out of what had been a fairly stable range to the downside.

U.S. June S&P PMIs - Manufacturing stronger still, Services less subdued

June 23, 2026 1:57 PM UTC

June’s preliminary S and P PMIs ae both improved, manufacturing impressively so at 55.7 from 55.1. Services are still subdued but at 51.3 from 50.7 are at their highest since February.

U.S. Initial Claims, June Philly Fed - Slightly improved but some signs of fading momentum

June 18, 2026 12:54 PM UTC

Initial claims slipped to 226k from 230k while June’s Philly Fed manufacturing survey increased to 10.3 from -0.4, both in line with expectations, improved but not as strong as some recent releases.