U.S. November Consumer Confidence slides but October pending home sales stronger
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index at 88.7 in November from 95.5 in October is the weakest since April when tariff concerns were at their peak. October pending home sales however with a 1.9% increase sustain recent signs of a revival in the housing market as Fed easing resumes.
The slide in consumer confidence appears to coincide with a slide in Trump’s popularity. Consumer confidence was already low among Democrats but some of Trump’s supporters appear to be losing confidence.
While opinion polls suggest that prices are a major issue behind Trump’s declining popularity there is not much evidence of that here, with the average inflation expectation unchanged at 5.7% but the median has picked up to 4.8% from 4.6%. The contrast may reflect the extreme pessimism of Democrats not changing much but Republican optimism fading.
The employment picture is slightly more negative, with a 9.7% excess of those seeing jobs as plentiful compared with those that see them as hard to get, down from 10.3% in September but still above August’s 8.7%.
Pending home sales have now seen three straight gains, by 1.9% in October, 0.1% in September and 4.2% in August, a sign that Fed easing has turned trend positive, consistent with most other recent housing sector indicators.
