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November 07, 2024
Sweden Riksbank Review: Faster, But Not (Yet) Any Further?
November 7, 2024 8:50 AM UTC
A fourth successive rate cut was widely seen at this Riksbank meeting, but rather than the 25 bp moves seen hitherto, there was the 50 bp move (to 2.75%) that was hinted at as part of the two further cuts advertised at the last (September) meeting. What seems clear is that inflation worries have s
October 29, 2024
Sweden Riksbank Preview (Nov 7): Rate Cuts Driven Increasingly by Weak Economy
October 29, 2024 10:09 AM UTC
A fourth successive 25 bp rate cut (to 3.0%) is widely seen at the looming Riksbank meeting (Nov 7), with the risk that it may even be the 50 bp move that was hinted at as part of the two further cuts advertised at the last (September) meeting. What seems clear is that inflation worries have subsi
October 02, 2024
Markets: Rate Cuts or Geopolitics?
October 2, 2024 9:36 AM UTC
Israel will likely counteract Iran, which will prompt a further missile attack by Iran. However, our bias remains that Israel main aim is to have a buffer zone in southern Lebanon up to the Latani river and not fight a prolonged war with Iran. This limits the economic fallout globally and on oil
September 27, 2024
September 26, 2024
Western Europe Outlook: Gradualism vs Reality
September 26, 2024 10:45 AM UTC
· In the UK, while headline GDP numbers look firmer, the real economy backdrop and outlook remains no better than mixed. This should improve a disinflation process driven mainly by friendlier supply conditions. The BoE will likely ease in Q4 and continue doing so through 2025 (we look
September 25, 2024
Sweden Riksbank Review: Rate Cuts – Faster and a Little Further?
September 25, 2024 8:15 AM UTC
A third successive 25 bp rate cut (to 3.25%) surprised no-one at this month’s Riksbank meeting. More notably, updated forecasts more formally validated both the likelihood and the rationale for the two added cuts by end-year that the Board hinted at after the August easing and which largely are
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts But How Far?
September 25, 2024 7:30 AM UTC
· The U.S. economy is slowing, with the critical question being whether this is a soft or harder landing. Our broad analysis leaves us inclined to the soft landing view into 2025, though we shall watch real sector data closely over the next 3-6 months to check the trajectory. Else
September 17, 2024
Sweden Riksbank Preview (Sep 25): Rate Cuts – Faster and Further?
September 17, 2024 8:45 AM UTC
A third successive 25 bp rate looms at this month’s Riksbank meeting verdict (Sep 25) to 3.25%. More notably, updated forecasts are likely to more formally validate the rationale for the two added cuts by end-year that the Board hinted at after the August easing and which now seem all but certai
September 15, 2024
Sep 27 Outlook Webinar: Rate Cuts But How Far?
September 15, 2024 10:30 AM UTC
Uncertainty about whether the U.S. economy will have a soft or hard landing is growing as the market approaches Q4. This is shaping the debate regarding the scale of easing through the remainder of 2024 and 2025 by the Fed. European easing is underway, but how much further will central ba
August 20, 2024
Riksbank Deliver 25bps and More to Come
August 20, 2024 7:58 AM UTC
Riksbank appear more concerned about a weak economy, which is causing forward guidance of a faster pace of easing after today’s 25bps cut to 3.50%. We look for 25bps cuts at the September and December meeting and a further 25bps is possible at the November meeting if inflation remains under cont
August 14, 2024
Sweden Riksbank Preview (Aug 20): Still Trying to be Gradual?
August 14, 2024 8:15 AM UTC
Recent data have justified the Riksbank’s increased confidence in the current disinflation process and is highly likely to exercise its easing bias with a second (in three months) 25 bp rate cut (to 3.5%) at the Sep 20 policy verdict. As for future policy, in a Board meeting with no fresh projec
June 27, 2024
Sweden Riksbank Review: Slightly Less Gradual
June 27, 2024 9:29 AM UTC
The Riksbank is more confident in the current disinflation process. While none expected any further cuts at this policy verdict today, especially after the 25 bp rate cut it made last month, the Board updated Monetary Policy Report suggested there may an additional such cut in H2 over and beyond t
June 26, 2024
June 25, 2024
Outlook Overview: Cyclical and Structural Forces
June 25, 2024 10:15 AM UTC
• The global economy is showing signs of healing, as inflation comes back towards targets and growth recovers momentum in some economies. Nevertheless, the cyclical headwind of lagged monetary tightening remains in DM countries, and will likely be one of the forces slowing the U.S. economy
June 24, 2024
Western Europe Outlook: Easing Cycles Diverge?
June 24, 2024 7:48 AM UTC
· · In the UK, while downside economic risks may have dissipated, the real economy backdrop and outlook is still no better than mixed. This should accentuate a disinflation process hitherto driven mainly by friendlier supply conditions. The BoE will likely ease in Q3 and
June 19, 2024
Sweden Riksbank Preview (Jun 27): Doing It Gradually
June 19, 2024 3:24 PM UTC
As much as the 25 bp rate cut it made last month was the clear hint of two further such cuts in H2 this year, this chiming with its policy outlook in the March (Figure 1) Monetary Policy Report (MPR) as well as our own long-standing view. By moving at that early juncture, the Board was both reacti
May 08, 2024
Sweden Riksbank Review: Biting the Bullet
May 8, 2024 8:24 AM UTC
It very much seemed to be a question of when, not if, as far as policy easing is concerned for the Riksbank. In this regard, albeit surprising in terms of timing, the Riksbank delivered, cutting its policy rate by 25 bp (to 3.75%), despite clear concerns it has flagged about recent and continued k
May 01, 2024
Sweden Riksbank Preview (May 8): When, Not If?
May 1, 2024 8:09 AM UTC
It seems to be a question of when, not if as far as policy easing is concerned. Even at it previous policy assessment in February it was clear(er) that the Riksbank accepted that it could and should make its policy stance less contractionary, at least in conventional terms. But its last decision
April 03, 2024
April 02, 2024
Asset Allocation: Pausing for Breath
April 2, 2024 9:00 AM UTC
Into Q2, data and policy (actual and perceived) will dominate DM markets. The ECB will likely take the spotlight with a 25bps cut on June 7, as the Fed face a better growth/more fiscal policy expansion and a tighter labor market than the EZ but also with a better productivity backdrop and outlook to
March 27, 2024
Sweden Riksbank Review: Early Easing to Allow Gradual Moves
March 27, 2024 9:58 AM UTC
Even at it previous policy assessment in February it was clear(er) that the Riksbank accepted that it could and should make its policy stance less contractionary, at least in conventional terms. But its latest decision, again keeping the policy rate at 4%, and no change to the pace of bond sales,
March 25, 2024
March 22, 2024
Western Europe Outlook: Easing Cycle Underway?
March 22, 2024 11:26 AM UTC
· In the UK, downside economic risks may have dissipated but the tighter monetary stance has far from fully bitten. This accentuates and/or prolongs an already weak domestic backdrop into 2025 that will complement friendlier supply conditions in easing inflation. The BoE will likely e
March 18, 2024
Sweden Riksbank Preview: Early Easing Discussion Clearer But Nothing Definitive
March 18, 2024 4:20 PM UTC
It is ever clearer that the Riksbank has accepted that it can and should make its policy stance less contractionary, at least in conventional terms. In its last decision, at the start of February, keeping policy at 4%, albeit increasing the pace of bond sales from SEK 5 billion to 6.5 billion per
February 01, 2024
Sweden Riksbank Review: Easing Flagged as Policy Can be Less Contractionary
February 1, 2024 9:22 AM UTC
It is ever clearer that the Riksbank now accepts that it can and should make its policy stance less contractionary, at least in conventional terms. In its latest decision, keeping policy at 4%, albeit increasing the pace of bond sales from SEK 5 billion to 6.5 billion per month, it noted that the
January 23, 2024
Sweden Riksbank Preview (Feb 1) Clearly Improving Inflation Picture Accepted?
January 23, 2024 3:07 PM UTC
It is ever clearer that the Riksbank has finished its hiking, this borne out by the unchanged policy decision last month and by the same decision due at policy verdict due on Feb1. The question now turns to policy easing. Recent data have continued to be been mixed, with slightly perkier tones to th
December 15, 2023
Western Europe Outlook: Inflation Succumbing?
December 15, 2023 2:44 PM UTC
· In the UK, downside economic risks may still be materializing as the tighter monetary stance has far from fully bitten. This accentuates and/or prolongs an already negative domestic backdrop that may now stretch into 2025. The BoE has already paused and will likely ease next year an
December 08, 2023
This week's five highlights
December 8, 2023 10:34 AM UTC
U.S. November NFP Likely firmer due to returning strikers
USD/JPY Slumped on Ueda's Speech
Bank of Canada Tightening Bias Persists but is Reduced
USD/CAD Slipping on Weak Oil
RBA Continue to be data dependent
We expect a 200k increase in November's non-farm payroll, stronger than October's 150k though ex
November 23, 2023
Sweden Riksbank Review: Accepts Improving Inflation Picture and Pauses
November 23, 2023 9:54 AM UTC
For some time we have thought that the Riksbank has finished its hiking, and this line of thinking has been borne out by the unchanged policy decision this month, something also contrary to both previous Riksbank guidance and recent consensus thinking. Recent data have continued to be been mixed but
September 27, 2023
Western Europe Outlook: Policy Peaking
September 27, 2023 9:50 AM UTC
Forecast changes: Compared to our June Outlook, GDP growth forecasts have again seen mixed developments, slightly less poor for the UK and Norway for this year, but with 2024 downgrades seen across the board. But it is the upgraded current year inflation projections that explain the more significant
June 22, 2023
Western Europe Outlook: Consumer Fragilities Persist
June 22, 2023 12:48 PM UTC
Forecast changes: Compared to our March Outlook, GDP growth forecasts have again seen mixed developments, slightly less poor for the UK and Norway, but up clearly in Sweden but where recessions are still on the cards in all but Switzerland. But it is the upgraded inflation projections that explain t
March 27, 2023
Western Europe Outlook: Valedictory Hiking?
March 27, 2023 3:16 PM UTC
Forecast changes: Compared to our December outlook, GDP growth forecasts have seen mixed developments, better for the UK and Norway, but down further in Sweden but where recession is still on the cards in all but Switzerland. This partly reflects the more significant monetary tightening seen across
February 22, 2023
In-Depth Research: Quick Roadmap Central Bank Forecast/Rationale - February 2023
February 22, 2023 10:44 AM UTC
M/T Quick Roadmap – Fundamental MMKT/CB Roadmap and Rationale
February 2023
US FEDERAL RESERVE
The February 1 December FOMC meeting saw the pace of tightening slowed to 25bps. Inflation has slowed, but January's CPI details still show broad based inflationary pressures at a pace well above the Fed's