Sweden
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August 20, 2024
Riksbank Deliver 25bps and More to Come
August 20, 2024 7:58 AM UTC
Riksbank appear more concerned about a weak economy, which is causing forward guidance of a faster pace of easing after today’s 25bps cut to 3.50%. We look for 25bps cuts at the September and December meeting and a further 25bps is possible at the November meeting if inflation remains under cont
August 14, 2024
Sweden Riksbank Preview (Aug 20): Still Trying to be Gradual?
August 14, 2024 8:15 AM UTC
Recent data have justified the Riksbank’s increased confidence in the current disinflation process and is highly likely to exercise its easing bias with a second (in three months) 25 bp rate cut (to 3.5%) at the Sep 20 policy verdict. As for future policy, in a Board meeting with no fresh projec
June 27, 2024
Sweden Riksbank Review: Slightly Less Gradual
June 27, 2024 9:29 AM UTC
The Riksbank is more confident in the current disinflation process. While none expected any further cuts at this policy verdict today, especially after the 25 bp rate cut it made last month, the Board updated Monetary Policy Report suggested there may an additional such cut in H2 over and beyond t
June 26, 2024
June 25, 2024
Outlook Overview: Cyclical and Structural Forces
June 25, 2024 10:15 AM UTC
• The global economy is showing signs of healing, as inflation comes back towards targets and growth recovers momentum in some economies. Nevertheless, the cyclical headwind of lagged monetary tightening remains in DM countries, and will likely be one of the forces slowing the U.S. economy
June 24, 2024
Western Europe Outlook: Easing Cycles Diverge?
June 24, 2024 7:48 AM UTC
· · In the UK, while downside economic risks may have dissipated, the real economy backdrop and outlook is still no better than mixed. This should accentuate a disinflation process hitherto driven mainly by friendlier supply conditions. The BoE will likely ease in Q3 and
June 19, 2024
Sweden Riksbank Preview (Jun 27): Doing It Gradually
June 19, 2024 3:24 PM UTC
As much as the 25 bp rate cut it made last month was the clear hint of two further such cuts in H2 this year, this chiming with its policy outlook in the March (Figure 1) Monetary Policy Report (MPR) as well as our own long-standing view. By moving at that early juncture, the Board was both reacti
May 08, 2024
Sweden Riksbank Review: Biting the Bullet
May 8, 2024 8:24 AM UTC
It very much seemed to be a question of when, not if, as far as policy easing is concerned for the Riksbank. In this regard, albeit surprising in terms of timing, the Riksbank delivered, cutting its policy rate by 25 bp (to 3.75%), despite clear concerns it has flagged about recent and continued k
May 01, 2024
Sweden Riksbank Preview (May 8): When, Not If?
May 1, 2024 8:09 AM UTC
It seems to be a question of when, not if as far as policy easing is concerned. Even at it previous policy assessment in February it was clear(er) that the Riksbank accepted that it could and should make its policy stance less contractionary, at least in conventional terms. But its last decision
April 03, 2024
April 02, 2024
Asset Allocation: Pausing for Breath
April 2, 2024 9:00 AM UTC
Into Q2, data and policy (actual and perceived) will dominate DM markets. The ECB will likely take the spotlight with a 25bps cut on June 7, as the Fed face a better growth/more fiscal policy expansion and a tighter labor market than the EZ but also with a better productivity backdrop and outlook to
March 27, 2024
Sweden Riksbank Review: Early Easing to Allow Gradual Moves
March 27, 2024 9:58 AM UTC
Even at it previous policy assessment in February it was clear(er) that the Riksbank accepted that it could and should make its policy stance less contractionary, at least in conventional terms. But its latest decision, again keeping the policy rate at 4%, and no change to the pace of bond sales,
March 25, 2024
March 22, 2024
Western Europe Outlook: Easing Cycle Underway?
March 22, 2024 11:26 AM UTC
· In the UK, downside economic risks may have dissipated but the tighter monetary stance has far from fully bitten. This accentuates and/or prolongs an already weak domestic backdrop into 2025 that will complement friendlier supply conditions in easing inflation. The BoE will likely e
March 18, 2024
Sweden Riksbank Preview: Early Easing Discussion Clearer But Nothing Definitive
March 18, 2024 4:20 PM UTC
It is ever clearer that the Riksbank has accepted that it can and should make its policy stance less contractionary, at least in conventional terms. In its last decision, at the start of February, keeping policy at 4%, albeit increasing the pace of bond sales from SEK 5 billion to 6.5 billion per
February 01, 2024
Sweden Riksbank Review: Easing Flagged as Policy Can be Less Contractionary
February 1, 2024 9:22 AM UTC
It is ever clearer that the Riksbank now accepts that it can and should make its policy stance less contractionary, at least in conventional terms. In its latest decision, keeping policy at 4%, albeit increasing the pace of bond sales from SEK 5 billion to 6.5 billion per month, it noted that the
January 23, 2024
Sweden Riksbank Preview (Feb 1) Clearly Improving Inflation Picture Accepted?
January 23, 2024 3:07 PM UTC
It is ever clearer that the Riksbank has finished its hiking, this borne out by the unchanged policy decision last month and by the same decision due at policy verdict due on Feb1. The question now turns to policy easing. Recent data have continued to be been mixed, with slightly perkier tones to th
January 11, 2024
Webinar Recording December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
January 11, 2024 8:22 AM UTC
You can now access the webinar for the December Outlook here.
To read the individual chapters please see the weblink below.
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
China Outloo
January 08, 2024
Charting our Views December Outlook
January 8, 2024 9:05 AM UTC
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
Economic Scenarios
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
Brazil Policy Rate and CPI Inflation (YoY, %)
China Outlook: Headwinds To China Growth (here)
Japan Outlook: Normalizing
January 02, 2024
December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
January 2, 2024 9:53 AM UTC
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
China Outlook: Headwinds To China Growth (here)
Japan Outlook: Normalizing Monetary Policy Soon (here)
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook:
December 19, 2023
December 18, 2023
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024
December 18, 2023 3:42 PM UTC
· Uncertainty still prevails around this central view. The impact of lagged monetary tightening could be greater than our estimates and deliver mild recessions in some DM countries. We also feel that the disinflationary process could be stronger and this would help bring inflation back
December 15, 2023
Western Europe Outlook: Inflation Succumbing?
December 15, 2023 2:44 PM UTC
Our Forecasts
Risks to Our Views
Common Themes
There continue to be clear cross currents across Western Europe’s economies that may continue into 2024 and possibly beyond, all inter-related. Firstly, while we have made little alteration to the 2024 outlooks for all four countries, they remain very
December 08, 2023
This week's five highlights
December 8, 2023 10:34 AM UTC
U.S. November NFP Likely firmer due to returning strikers
USD/JPY Slumped on Ueda's Speech
Bank of Canada Tightening Bias Persists but is Reduced
USD/CAD Slipping on Weak Oil
RBA Continue to be data dependent
We expect a 200k increase in November's non-farm payroll, stronger than October's 150k though ex
November 23, 2023
Sweden Riksbank Review: Accepts Improving Inflation Picture and Pauses
November 23, 2023 9:54 AM UTC
Figure 1: Inflation Moving Back to Target Durably
Source: Riksbank
Plunging Price Pressures?Regardless, the Riksbank inflation outlook retained a much more explicit admission that policy is restrictive, as the Riksbank has taken policy to a terminal rate of around 4% it signalled in June and that this
November 14, 2023
Sweden Riksbank Preview: Has Policy Peaked?
November 14, 2023 3:25 PM UTC
The Riksbank is somewhat equivocal about whether rates have peaked but is also not suggesting any near-term policy reversal. We think instead that rate cuts may emerge by mid-2024, not least given the even more sizeable output gap the Riksbank is anticipating out to 2025, embracing a cumulative 2 pp
September 27, 2023
Western Europe Outlook: Policy Peaking
September 27, 2023 9:50 AM UTC
Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics, Office for National Statistics, Eurostat, Swiss Secretariat for Economic Affairs, Statistics Norway
Risks to Our Views
Source: Continuum Economics
A Riskier Score for 2024
There a several common themes across Western Europe’s economies that are evident at pres
September 21, 2023
Sweden Riksbank Review: Policy Peaking
September 21, 2023 8:14 AM UTC
Figure 1: Inflation Back to Target By Next Year
Source: Riksbank
Sizeable Output Gap
Indeed, we doubt there are grounds even for this hike as economic and particularly domestic demand fragility persists and accentuates recent signs of a broader fall in inflation, this very evident in seasonally adjuste
September 13, 2023
Sweden Riksbank Preview (Sep 21): A Final Hike as Inflation Succumbs
September 13, 2023 9:08 AM UTC
Figure 1: Inflation Back to Target 2024
Source: Riksbank, last two Monetary Policy Reports, % chg y/y
Domestic Weakness to Continue
Indeed, we doubt there are grounds even for this hike as economic and particularly domestic demand fragility persists and accentuates recent signs of a broader fall in inf
June 22, 2023
Western Europe Outlook: Consumer Fragilities Persist
June 22, 2023 12:48 PM UTC
Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics, Office for National Statistics, Eurostat, Swiss Secretariat for Economic Affairs, Statistics Norway
Risks to Our Views
Source: Continuum Economics
Despite the drop in energy prices (which means that the threat of immediate recession has been reduced), it is not
March 27, 2023
Western Europe Outlook: Valedictory Hiking?
March 27, 2023 3:16 PM UTC
Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics, Office for National Statistics, Eurostat, Swiss Secretariat for Economic Affairs, Statistics Norway
Risks to Our Views
Source: Continuum Economics
We still see fully-fledged recessions in all but Switzerland but they are now envisaged to be shallower and shorte
February 22, 2023
In-Depth Research: Quick Roadmap Central Bank Forecast/Rationale - February 2023
February 22, 2023 10:44 AM UTC
M/T Quick Roadmap – Fundamental MMKT/CB Roadmap and Rationale
February 2023
US FEDERAL RESERVE
The February 1 December FOMC meeting saw the pace of tightening slowed to 25bps. Inflation has slowed, but January's CPI details still show broad based inflationary pressures at a pace well above the Fed's