March Outlook: Navigating the Turbulence

March 27, 2025 10:30 AM UTC

All chapters of the March Outlook are now available and simply click the link below. 

Outlook Overview: Navigating the Turbulence

March 26, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

·       More tariffs will arrive from the U.S. from April with product (car, pharma, semiconductors and lumber) and reciprocal tariffs. President Trump has a 3-part approach to tariffs to raise (tax) revenue; bring production back to the U.S. and get fairer trade deals.  This means some of t

EMEA Outlook: Mixed Prospects Due to Global Uncertainties and Domestic Dynamics

March 25, 2025 7:00 AM UTC

·     In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 4.1% and 4.5% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, despite there are upside risks to inflation such as remaining power cuts (loadshedding), tariff hikes by Eskom, spike in food and housing prices, and global uncertainties. We

As Expected, CBR Kept Key Rate Constant at 21% on March 21

March 21, 2025 3:40 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) kept the policy rate constant on March 21 for the third consecutive time to combat price pressures. CBR signaled that it is unlikely that further tightening is needed for disinflation, and stated that current inflationary pressures have decr

Inflation in Russia Hits Two-Year High in February: 10.1% YoY

March 13, 2025 10:10 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation ticked up to 10.1% YoY in February after hitting 9.9% in January, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending,

EM Europe and CIS: Select Country Risk Ratings

March 3, 2025 11:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for EM Europe/CIS countries including Russia and Ukraine. 

Negotiations to End Ukraine War Started: What is Next?

February 25, 2025 2:33 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Russia and the U.S. have started negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. We continue to foresee a Russia-friendly peace deal in Ukraine sealed in 6-12 months following a cease-fire. We envisage Russia will continue to annex areas in and around four Ukrainian oblasts that it occupied,

Stubborn Inflation Continues to Stay Elevated in the First Month of 2025

February 17, 2025 9:33 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation ticked up to 9.9% YoY in January after hitting 9.5% in December, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending,

CBR Held Key Rate Constant at 21% on February 14

February 14, 2025 12:24 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) kept the policy rate constant on February 14 for the second consecutive time supported by the recent RUB strengthening while the inflation remains elevated. CBR said in its statement on February 14 that current inflationary pressures remain

Negotiations to End Ukraine War to Start Soon

February 13, 2025 3:03 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we envisaged, U.S. president Trump and Russian president Putin talked over the phone on February 12 to discuss the war in Ukraine. According to sources, Trump and Putin agreed to have their teams start negotiations immediately. Under current circumstances, we foresee a Russia-friendl

Europe’s Ukraine Political Fallout and Market Hopes

February 13, 2025 12:33 PM UTC

European politicians are surprised and angry at the U.S. stance on a peace deal for Ukraine and less military support for Europe, but eventually they will have to accept the new reality.  Europe is too divided to provide security guarantees to Ukraine on its own. A further increase and acceleration

Russian Economy Grew by 4.1% YoY in 2024

February 7, 2025 7:22 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Russian State Statistics Service (Rosstat) on February 7, Russia's GDP expanded by 4.1% YoY in 2024 driven by strong military spending, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. We envisage growth to hit 1.6% in 2025, which is significantly less than

CBR Will Likely Hold Key Rate Constant at 21% on February 14

February 6, 2025 10:05 AM UTC

Bottom Line: After Central Bank of Russia (CBR) held the key rate stable at 21% on December 20 despite expectations were centered around a rate hike, we now foresee that the rate will be kept constant on February 14 taking into account that January will likely bring a little inflation relief support

Trump-Putin Meeting in Horizon, Date Still Unknown

January 27, 2025 7:01 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After Trump took the office as of January 20, we feel Ukraine war is not a priority in Trump’s agenda since he is most focused on his priorities of immigration and tariffs. We think Trump and Putin will likely meet in spring to discuss tha war in Ukraine and energy prices, and Ukraine

Stubborn Inflation Jumped to Record High at Year-End Amid Ruble Woes

January 15, 2025 7:18 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data released on January 15, inflation ticked up to 9.5% YoY in December after hitting 8.9% in November, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices,

Cyberattacks and AI Misinformation: Market and Economic Fallout

January 13, 2025 8:10 AM UTC

   A major cyberattack is a tail risk, while a huge AI misinformation crisis is a modest crisis in our view.  Russia/China and Iran are less likely to launch a state sponsored cyberattack for geopolitical reasons and also uncertainty over president elect Donald Trump’s response.  A huge AI mis

December Outlook: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics

December 30, 2024 8:05 AM UTC

All chapters of the December Outlook are now available and simply click the link below. 

Russian Economy Grew by 3.6% YoY in November

December 29, 2024 9:57 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the preliminary figures announced by the Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP expanded by 3.6% YoY in November driven by strong military spending while monetary tightening, sanctions, and higher price pressures remain restrictive. We envisage growth to hit 1.6%

December Outlook Webinar on Jan 7: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics

December 24, 2024 8:30 AM UTC

    The U.S. economy’s momentum remains reasonable before the impact of President-elect Trump’s policies in 2025 and 2026.  While high uncertainty exists on the scale and timing of policy, the strategic bias is clear – sizeable tax cuts that will boost the budget deficit; tariffs (threats

Surprising Move: CBR Held Key Rate at 21% Despite Surging Inflation

December 20, 2024 1:39 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite expectations, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on December 20 that it held the key rate constant at 21%. The CBR emphasized in its statement that monetary conditions tightened more significantly than envisaged by the October key rate decision, and it would continue to eval

December Outlook: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics

December 20, 2024 12:15 PM UTC

All chapters of the December Outlook are now available and simply click the link below. 

Outlook Overview: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics

December 19, 2024 9:25 AM UTC

·        The U.S. economy momentum remains reasonable before President elect Trump’s policies impact in 2025 and 2026.  While high uncertainty exists on the scale and timing of policies, the strategic bias is clear – sizeable tax cuts that will boost the budget deficit; tariffs (threats

Jan 7 Outlook Webinar: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics

December 18, 2024 1:23 PM UTC

    The U.S. economy’s momentum remains reasonable before the impact of President-elect Trump’s policies in 2025 and 2026.  While high uncertainty exists on the scale and timing of policy, the strategic bias is clear – sizeable tax cuts that will boost the budget deficit; tariffs (threats

EMEA Outlook: Rate Cuts in 2025 Despite Global Uncertainties

December 17, 2024 8:00 AM UTC

·     In South Africa, our end-year policy rate prediction remains at 7.0% for 2025 and 6.5% for 2026.  We foresee headline inflation will fall to 4.2% and 4.6% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, considering power cuts (loadshedding) are relieved and the domestic fiscal outlook is moderately stab

Elevated Inflation Remains Sticky in Russia Amid Ruble Woes

December 12, 2024 3:33 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data released on December 11, inflation ticked up to 8.9% YoY in November after hitting 8.5% in October, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices,

EM Europe and CIS: Select Country Risk Ratings

December 10, 2024 11:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for EM Europe/CIS countries including Russia and Turikye. 

Ukraine War Update: What is Next in Ukraine under New Trump Administration?

November 26, 2024 1:14 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After Trump was elected for his second term, we foresee two major and one alternative scenario in Ukraine. Our first scenario is based on a negotiated settlement backed by the Trump administration, which could help Russia to gain assurance of no NATO/EU entry in the foreseeable future f

Elevated Inflation in Russia Remains Persistent and Sticky in October

November 13, 2024 5:21 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data released on November 13, inflation slightly cooled off to 8.5% YoY in October after hitting 8.6% in September but remained well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and

CBR’s October MPC Summary Signals Another Rate Hike in December

November 7, 2024 7:22 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Russia (CBR) published the summary of October MPC meeting on November 6, and signaled another rate hike in December by noting that “While a rate hike at the next meeting is not predetermined, the probability is very high,” which can be associated with elevated inflat

Russian Economy Grew by 2.9% YoY in September

October 31, 2024 10:51 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the preliminary figures announced by the Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP expanded by 2.9% YoY in September driven by military spending and investments. Ministry of Economic Development significantly upgraded its GDP growth outlook to 3.9% from 2.8% for 2024

BRICS Summit 2024: Kazan Declaration not a Game Changer

October 28, 2024 11:41 AM UTC

Bottom Line: The BRICS Summit, which was held in Kazan on October 22-24, was the first summit following BRICS has expanded to include Ethiopia, Iran, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. Despite expectations, Kazan deceleration, which was a joint statement signed after the summit, is not a game-chan

CBR Hiked Key Rate to Historic 21% Level

October 25, 2024 12:31 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on October 25 that it increased its policy rate by 200 bps to 21% to tame the stubborn price pressures stemming from high military spending, tight labour market and fiscal policy igniting domestic demand. CBR said in a press release that “Over th

EM Europe and CIS: Select Country Risk Ratings

October 22, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for EM Europe/CIS countries including Russia/Ukraine and Turikye. 

Russia CPI Review: Moderate Fall in Inflation in September but Still Elevated

October 11, 2024 6:48 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service data released on October 11, inflation cooled off to 8.6% YoY in September after hitting 9.1% both in August and July, but remained elevated due to surges in food and services prices, weakening Ruble (RUB), and huge military spending. The

Ukraine War Update: Kursk Battle is Turning into a Stalemate

October 4, 2024 7:05 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After Ukraine’s offensive inside Russia's western Kursk region started early August, it seems the Russian military command is continuing to prioritize offensive operations in priority sectors of the frontline over long-term planning for Russia's theater-wide campaign in Ukraine as Rus

September Outlook: Rate Cuts But How Far?

September 27, 2024 7:44 AM UTC

The 15 chapters of our September Outlook have now been published.  See the headlines and weblinks enclosed for links to the articles on economic, policy and markets for the 23 countries that we cover.

Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts But How Far?

September 25, 2024 7:30 AM UTC

·        The U.S. economy is slowing, with the critical question being whether this is a soft or harder landing.  Our broad analysis leaves us inclined to the soft landing view into 2025, though we shall watch real sector data closely over the next 3-6 months to check the trajectory.  Else

EMEA Outlook: Rate Cuts Loading in 2025

September 25, 2024 7:00 AM UTC

·     In Turkiye, we still foresee upside risks emanating from buoyant domestic demand, the stickiness of services inflation, and adverse geopolitical impacts leading average inflation to stand at 58.8% and 35.3% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. We think Central Bank of Republic of Turkiye (CBRT

Sep 27 Outlook Webinar: Rate Cuts But How Far?

September 15, 2024 10:30 AM UTC

    Uncertainty about whether the U.S. economy will have a soft or hard landing is growing as the market approaches Q4.  This is shaping the debate regarding the scale of easing through the remainder of 2024 and 2025 by the Fed.  European easing is underway, but how much further will central ba

As we Expected, CBR Hiked Key Rate to 19% as Inflation Continues to Soar

September 13, 2024 4:20 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on September 13 that it increased its policy rate by 100 bps to 19% to tame the stubborn price pressures stemming from high military spending, tight labour market and fiscal policy igniting domestic demand. CBR said in a press rele

High Inflation Continues to Dominate Russian Economy: 9.1% YoY in August

September 11, 2024 6:44 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service data released on September 11, inflation stayed at 9.1% YoY in August after July, the highest reading since February 2023, due to adverse base effects, strong military spending, high domestic demand, tight labor market, continued expansion

Strong Military Spending and Investment Growth Help Russian Economy Expand by 3.4% YoY in July

August 30, 2024 12:13 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the preliminary figures announced by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP grew by 3.4% YoY in June after expanding by 3% YoY in June driven by military production and investments. We foresee Russian economy will expand by 2.5% in 2024 despite aggress

Ukraine War Update: Surprising Ukraine Incursion in Russia Continues

August 27, 2024 10:51 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Ukraine’s surprise cross-border offensive inside Russia's western Kursk region continues with pace as Ukrainians recently advanced near Sudzha. In response, Russian military deploys forces from lower priority sectors of the frontline in Ukraine to the frontline in Kursk Oblast. We for

EM Markets Divergence with China Harder Landing Concerns

August 14, 2024 3:35 PM UTC

Global market turbulence has had a spillover impact into EM, but also some EM assets have benefitted from rotation away from the U.S.  What are the prospects in the coming months?
We see scope for a 2nd wave of U.S. equity and Japanese Yen (JPY) correction, which are a mixed influence for EM assets

Ukraine War Update: Surprising Ukraine Incursion in Russia

August 12, 2024 4:02 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After Russia executed strong counteroffensive operations in the western regions of Ukraine this summer, aiming to seize more territory before the U.S. presidential elections, Ukraine made a surprise attack in return and conducted a cross-border offensive inside Russia's western Kursk re

Strong Inflation Rally Continued in July: 9.1% YoY

August 9, 2024 6:27 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service data released on August 9, inflation jumped to 9.1% YoY in July after hitting 8.6% YoY in June, the highest reading since February 2023, due to adverse base effects, strong military spending, high domestic demand, tight labor market, conti

Rally Continues: Russian Economy Expands by 3% YoY in June

August 1, 2024 8:49 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the preliminary figures announced by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP grew by 3% YoY in June after expanding by a strong 4.5% YoY in May. We foresee Russian economy will expand by 2.5% in 2024 driven by a significant increase in military spending

CBR Hiked Key Rate to 18% as Inflation Soars

July 26, 2024 2:16 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on July 26 that it increased its policy rate by 200 bps to 18% after four consecutive rate holds, and first time in 2024, to tame the stubborn price pressures stemming from high military spending, tight labour market and fiscal pol

EM Europe and CIS: Select Country Risk Ratings

July 15, 2024 9:30 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for EM Europe/CIS countries including Russia/Ukraine and Kazakhstan.