Russian Federation
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May 08, 2024
Ukraine War Update: Major Russian Offensive is Expected This Summer Despite U.S. Military Aid
May 8, 2024 12:06 PM UTC
Bottom Line: The offensives at the front lines started to pick up steam after March/April as the Russian forces plan for their larger summer 2024 offensive operation, aiming to seize more territory before the U.S. presidential elections in November. In the meantime, U.S. approved a $61 billion warti
May 03, 2024
Russian Economy Expands by 4.2% YoY in March, and 5.4% in Q1
May 3, 2024 2:14 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP grew by 4.2% YoY in March owing to strong fiscal stimulus, high military spending, invigorating consumer demand and investments. We now foresee Russian economy will expand by 2.6% in 2024
April 26, 2024
CBR Kept the Key Rate Stable at 16%
April 26, 2024 1:12 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As widely expected, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on April 26 that it decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 16% for the third meeting in a row. CBR made critical changes in its key rate and inflation forecasts as it lifted its 2024 inflation forecast to 4.3-4.8% from 4-4
April 22, 2024
April 11, 2024
Russian Economy Expands by a Strong 7.7% YoY in February
April 11, 2024 7:38 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to preliminary figures announced by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP grew by 7.7% YoY in February after expanding by 4.6% in January, owing to strong fiscal stimulus, high military spending, invigorating consumer demand and investments. We foresee R
April 10, 2024
Russia’s Inflation Remained Steady at 7.7% in March
April 10, 2024 8:21 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After hitting 7.4% YoY in January and December, the inflation rate remained stable at a one-year peak of 7.7% YoY in March after February. We think stubborn price pressures continue to be strong due to high military spending, currency weakening particularly after March 11, tight labour
April 03, 2024
April 02, 2024
Asset Allocation: Pausing for Breath
April 2, 2024 9:00 AM UTC
Into Q2, data and policy (actual and perceived) will dominate DM markets. The ECB will likely take the spotlight with a 25bps cut on June 7, as the Fed face a better growth/more fiscal policy expansion and a tighter labor market than the EZ but also with a better productivity backdrop and outlook to
March 27, 2024
March 25, 2024
EMEA Outlook: Elections Set the Scene in Q2
March 25, 2024 2:00 PM UTC
· Unlike South Africa and Russia, Turkiye continued with tightening monetary policy in Q1 due to stubborn inflation, pressure on FX and reserves. Meanwhile, Russia and South Africa halted their tightening cycles as of 2024 and will likely start cutting interest rates in Q3 depending on how
March 22, 2024
CBR Keeps the Key Rate Constant at 16%
March 22, 2024 10:55 AM UTC
Bottom Line: As we envisaged, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on March 22 that it decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 16% for the second meeting in a row, despite inflationary pressures remaining elevated, and currency weakening continued. We expect the CBR to hold the key rate stab
March 15, 2024
Russian Presidential Election: Putin Moves Towards His Fifth Term in Kremlin
March 15, 2024 10:29 AM UTC
Bottom line: We foresee two possible outcomes of Russian presidential election on March 15-17, either a Putin win (99%) or a second round on April 7 (1%), despite the latter has a very small chance to occur. We think Putin will secure his fifth term in Kremlin despite there are alleged concerns that
March 13, 2024
Russia’s Inflation Remained High at 7.7% in February
March 13, 2024 9:33 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After remaining unchanged at 7.4% YoY in January and December, we saw an uptick in the inflation hitting 7.7% in February. We think stubborn price pressures continue to be strong due to high military spending, currency weakening, tight labour market, high salaries and benefits, and invi
February 29, 2024
Russia Frozen Assets, Ukraine Reconstruction and G7-BRICS
February 29, 2024 10:55 AM UTC
Bottom Line: A number of proposals to seize or use Russia frozen assets for Ukraine reconstruction are not getting overwhelming support within the G7 and a decision could be delayed until the G7 summit in Italy June 13-15. Concerns over the legal standing and reputational risk (China has been shif
February 28, 2024
Strong Growth Trend Continues in Russia
February 28, 2024 5:59 PM UTC
Bottom Line: The Russian economy continued its strong growth trend, and expanded by 4.6% YoY in January 2024, thanks to high defense spending, continued consumer demand and lending, and growing wages, which also ignite increased demand and prices for products and services.
February 16, 2024
As Expected, CBR Keeps the Key Rate at 16%
February 16, 2024 1:49 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on February 16 that it decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 16% after lifting the rate in the last five consecutive MPC meetings, despite inflationary pressures and expectations remaining elevated, domestic demand still out
February 14, 2024
Russia’s Inflation Remains High at 7.4% in January
February 14, 2024 7:22 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After increasing seven months in a row till December 2023, inflation remained unchanged at 7.4% YoY in January after December. We think stubborn price pressures continue to be strong due to high military spending, currency weakening, tight labour market, high salaries and benefits, and
February 13, 2024
Ukraine War Update: The Struggle for Western Support
February 13, 2024 9:39 AM UTC
Bottom Line: As we expected, the deadlock in Ukraine continues to hold as of the winter months, and protracted conflict remains active as both sides continue to failure to gain ground. The support to Ukraine from the Western Block remains fragmented despite European Union (EU) leaders unanimously ag
February 09, 2024
Russian Economy Expanded by a Fast 3.6% in 2023, Rosstat Reports
February 9, 2024 8:47 AM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Statistics Service’s (Rosstat) announcement, the Russian economy grew by a strong 3.6% in 2023 from a revised 1.2% drop in 2022, thanks to fiscal stimulus, increased defense spending to boost industrial production, continued consumer demand and lending coupled wit
January 31, 2024
Military Spending is Expected to Boost Russian Economy in 2024
January 31, 2024 1:08 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Russian war spending continues to boost Russian economy as military analysts expect Russian spending on defense will rise to around 6% of GDP in 2024 from 3.9% in 2023. We foresee Russian GDP to grow by 1.3% in 2024 since strong monetary tightening is expected to suppress demand and s
January 18, 2024
January 12, 2024
Russia’s Inflation Slightly Slows Down to 7.4% in December
January 12, 2024 10:21 PM UTC
Figure 1: CPI (YoY, % Change) and Policy Rate (%), January 2022 – December 2023
Source: Datastream, Continuum Economics
According to Rosstat figures, prices of food, non-food products and services rose by 8.16%, 5.96% and 8.33% on an annual basis in December, respectively. The consumer price index (
January 11, 2024
Webinar Recording December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
January 11, 2024 8:22 AM UTC
You can now access the webinar for the December Outlook here.
To read the individual chapters please see the weblink below.
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
China Outloo
January 08, 2024
Charting our Views December Outlook
January 8, 2024 9:05 AM UTC
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
Economic Scenarios
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
Brazil Policy Rate and CPI Inflation (YoY, %)
China Outlook: Headwinds To China Growth (here)
Japan Outlook: Normalizing
January 02, 2024
December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
January 2, 2024 9:53 AM UTC
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
China Outlook: Headwinds To China Growth (here)
Japan Outlook: Normalizing Monetary Policy Soon (here)
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook:
December 19, 2023
EM FX Outlook: USD Decline v Inflation Differentials
December 19, 2023 9:59 AM UTC
· In spot terms, we see the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) and Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) rising against the USD as Fed rate cuts narrow interest rate differentials and a move away from an overvalued USD occurs. Brazilian Real (BRL) and Mexican Peso (MXN) will likely be stable against the USD
December 18, 2023
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024
December 18, 2023 3:42 PM UTC
· Uncertainty still prevails around this central view. The impact of lagged monetary tightening could be greater than our estimates and deliver mild recessions in some DM countries. We also feel that the disinflationary process could be stronger and this would help bring inflation back
EMEA Outlook: Inflationary Pressures Remain Strong
December 18, 2023 10:01 AM UTC
Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics
Risks to Our Views
Source: Continuum Economics
EMEA Dynamics: Inflationary Concerns Remain High
EMEA economies continue to be squeezed by macroeconomic problems such as elevated inflation and financial pressures. We think country specific factors, geopolitics,
December 15, 2023
Concerned with Accelerating Inflation, CBR Lifted the Key Rate by 100bps to 16%
December 15, 2023 3:47 PM UTC
Figure 1: Policy Rate (%) and CPI (YoY, % Change), December 2021 – December 2023
Source: Datastream, Continuum Economics
In order to reduce inflation and inflation expectations, and to anchor inflation at the target level, CBR continued its tightening cycle in the fifth consecutive MPC meeting, and
December 08, 2023
Russia’s Inflation Accelerates to 7.5% in November
December 8, 2023 7:47 PM UTC
Figure 1: Inflation Rate (%, YoY), November 2022 - November 2023
Source: Datastream, Continuum Economics
According to Rosstat on December 8, prices of food, non-food products and services rose by 1.55%, 0.53% and 1.23% on a monthly basis in November, respectively. The consumer price index (CPI) edged
November 29, 2023
Russian Economy Grows by 5% in October
November 29, 2023 7:11 PM UTC
Figure 1: Industrial Production (%, YoY), October 2020 – October 2023
Source: Datastream, Continuum Economics
The Russian economy continues to grow fast in 2023 so far, after partly relieved from the negative impacts of the war in Ukraine in 2023. The Russian economy grew by a strong 5% YoY in Octob
November 20, 2023
Ukraine War: Western Support Weakens, Elections on the Horizon, Peace Negotiations Remains Unlikely
November 20, 2023 11:28 AM UTC
Market Implications: The war continues to create an increasing financial burden on Russia due to high military spending in addition to aggravation of staff shortages, elevated inflation, and trade income diminishing due to sanctions. Ukraine's economy continues to contract, inflation surges, and inf
November 16, 2023
Long-term Forecasts to download in Excel
November 16, 2023 10:38 AM UTC
We present our annual forecasts that go out to 2030 for GDP Growth, Inflation, and Monetary Policy and to 2028 for Exchange Rates. The file contains five sheets: a Country Coverage summary page and a sheet for each of the four indicators.
The forecasts are consistent with the Long-term Forecasts: DM
Long-term Forecasts: DM Policy Easing
November 16, 2023 8:44 AM UTC
The Continuum Economics research team has spent much of the last month researching, reviewing and debating our long-term GDP, CPI inflation and central bank policy rate forecasts for 2025-30. Alongside a reassessment of long-term factors such as productivity and demographics, we have examined the la
November 15, 2023
Russian Economy Expands by 5.5% in Q3, Rosstat Reports
November 15, 2023 5:25 PM UTC
Figure 1: GDP Growth (%, YoY), Q3 2020 – Q3 2023
Source: Datastream, Continuum Economics
The Russian economy continues to grow fast in 2023 so far, after partly relieved from the negative impacts of the war in Ukraine. (Note: Russian GDP decreased by 1.8% in Q1 2023, and grew by 4.9% in Q2.) The mai
November 10, 2023
Russia’s Inflation Stays Strong in October
November 10, 2023 5:06 PM UTC
Figure 1: $/RUB Rate, November 2021 - November 2023
Source: Datastream, Continuum Economics
According to Rosstat, prices of food, non-food products and services rose by 1.35%, 0.55% and 0.48% on a monthly basis in October, respectively. The consumer price index (CPI) also rose by 0.83% on a monthly b
November 09, 2023
Russia: War Related Sanctions and Shrinking Labor Force Pose Threats to Long Term Growth
November 9, 2023 12:02 PM UTC
Figure 1: Russia GDP Growth Forecasts to 2030 (%)
Source: Continuum Economics/Datastream
Figure 2: Russia Population Forecasts to 2030 (Thousand)
Source: Continuum Economics/Datastream
Figure 3: Russia Industrial Production Forecast to 2030
Source: Continuum Economics/Datastream
Technology is also o
November 01, 2023
Russia’s GDP Grew Faster Than Expected in January - September 2023
November 1, 2023 2:23 PM UTC
Figure 1: Industrial Production (%, YoY), October 2018 – September 2023
Source: Datastream, Continuum Economics
The main accelerator for Russian growth continues to be the surge in the military spending after the war in Ukraine started. Despite there being a pause on territorial advance by Russia o
October 19, 2023
EM Europe/CIS: Country Risk Ratings
October 19, 2023 10:33 AM UTC
Armenia
Armenia’s overall risk level remains medium high. Vahagn Khachaturyan continues to be the president of Armenia after being in elected in March 2022, after the resignation of his predecessor. Political violence remains medium high and political interference and legal & regulatory risk at a m
October 12, 2023
Russia’s Inflation Surged Fast in September
October 12, 2023 6:05 PM UTC
Figure 1: CPI Inflation Rate (%, YoY), September 2022- September 2023
Source: Datastream, Continuum Economics
According to Rosstat, prices of food, non-food products and services rose by 0.86%, 1.09% and 0.61% on a monthly basis in September, respectively. The consumer price index (CPI) also hiked by
October 03, 2023
Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Surge in September
October 3, 2023 7:50 AM UTC
Figure 1: $ to Ruble Rate, September 2022- September 2023
Source: Datastream, Continuum Economics
After food prices rose by 3.6% in annual terms, the cost of services surged by 9.5% in annual terms and yearly diesel fuel prices hiked by 4.1% in August, we expect rising patterns to continue in Septembe
September 28, 2023
EMEA Outlook: Domestic Factors and Geopolitics Dominate Heading to 2024 Election Year
September 28, 2023 7:45 AM UTC
EMEA Dynamics: Domestic Factors and Geopolitics Continue to Dominate the Outlook during 2024 Election Year
EMEA economies continue to be squeezed by the elevated DM interest rates, high oil and certain food prices, EU and China slowdown. However, country specific factors and geopolitics will continue
September 27, 2023
Russian GDP Grew by 2.1% in January-July 2023
September 27, 2023 3:54 PM UTC
Figure 1: Central Government Deficit/Surplus (in Trillion Rubles), September 2020 - August 2023
Source: Datastream, Continuum Economics
The predictions for Russian GDP remain positive, despite the ongoing Ukraine war and macroeconomic problems. Underlining strong manufacturing figures, economic devel
September 11, 2023
Inflation Alarming: Russia’s Inflation Surged to 5.2% in August
September 11, 2023 8:10 AM UTC
Figure 1: CPI (%, YoY), January 2021 - August 2023
Source: Datastream, Continuum Economics
According to Rosstat, food prices rose by 3.58% in annual terms, while prices of non-food products soared by 1.14% on a monthly basis and by 3.5% compared to August 2022. The cost of services surged by 9.54% in
September 08, 2023
Navigating Power Clashes: What to Expect from the G20 Summit in India
September 8, 2023 9:10 AM UTC
The Emergence of BRICS and Changing Dynamics
One significant development to watch is the growing influence of the BRICS nations within the G20 (here). Originally formed by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa to amplify the voices of emerging economies, BRICS has expanded its membership to
September 01, 2023
Russian GDP Grew by 1.6% in 1H 2023
September 1, 2023 10:03 AM UTC
Figure 1: GDP (%, YoY), Q3 2018 – Q2 2023
Source: Datastream, Continuum Economics
The predictions for Russian GDP remain positive despite the ongoing Ukraine war. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on August 26 that Russia's economy is expected to grow by 2.5% or more in 2023. Central Ban
August 31, 2023
BRICS Band Expands: New Harmonies in Global Orchestra
August 31, 2023 10:57 AM UTC
Following the summit in Johannesburg last week, the South African President Cyril Ramaphosa announced that six new candidates have been selected to join the BRICS group, and will formally become members on January 1, 2024. This includes Iran, Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia, UAE, Argentina and Egypt. The inv