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February 17, 2025

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Stubborn Inflation Continues to Stay Elevated in the First Month of 2025
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 9:33 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation ticked up to 9.9% YoY in January after hitting 9.5% in December, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending,

February 14, 2025

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CBR Held Key Rate Constant at 21% on February 14
Paying Article

February 14, 2025 12:24 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) kept the policy rate constant on February 14 for the second consecutive time supported by the recent RUB strengthening while the inflation remains elevated. CBR said in its statement on February 14 that current inflationary pressures remain

February 13, 2025

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Negotiations to End Ukraine War to Start Soon
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 3:03 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we envisaged, U.S. president Trump and Russian president Putin talked over the phone on February 12 to discuss the war in Ukraine. According to sources, Trump and Putin agreed to have their teams start negotiations immediately. Under current circumstances, we foresee a Russia-friendl

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Europe’s Ukraine Political Fallout and Market Hopes
Freemium Article

February 13, 2025 12:33 PM UTC

European politicians are surprised and angry at the U.S. stance on a peace deal for Ukraine and less military support for Europe, but eventually they will have to accept the new reality.  Europe is too divided to provide security guarantees to Ukraine on its own. A further increase and acceleration

February 07, 2025

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Russian Economy Grew by 4.1% YoY in 2024
Paying Article

February 7, 2025 7:22 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Russian State Statistics Service (Rosstat) on February 7, Russia's GDP expanded by 4.1% YoY in 2024 driven by strong military spending, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. We envisage growth to hit 1.6% in 2025, which is significantly less than

February 06, 2025

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CBR Will Likely Hold Key Rate Constant at 21% on February 14
Paying Article

February 6, 2025 10:05 AM UTC

Bottom Line: After Central Bank of Russia (CBR) held the key rate stable at 21% on December 20 despite expectations were centered around a rate hike, we now foresee that the rate will be kept constant on February 14 taking into account that January will likely bring a little inflation relief support

January 27, 2025

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Trump-Putin Meeting in Horizon, Date Still Unknown
Paying Article

January 27, 2025 7:01 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After Trump took the office as of January 20, we feel Ukraine war is not a priority in Trump’s agenda since he is most focused on his priorities of immigration and tariffs. We think Trump and Putin will likely meet in spring to discuss tha war in Ukraine and energy prices, and Ukraine

January 15, 2025

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Stubborn Inflation Jumped to Record High at Year-End Amid Ruble Woes
Paying Article

January 15, 2025 7:18 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data released on January 15, inflation ticked up to 9.5% YoY in December after hitting 8.9% in November, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices,

January 13, 2025

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Cyberattacks and AI Misinformation: Market and Economic Fallout
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 8:10 AM UTC

   A major cyberattack is a tail risk, while a huge AI misinformation crisis is a modest crisis in our view.  Russia/China and Iran are less likely to launch a state sponsored cyberattack for geopolitical reasons and also uncertainty over president elect Donald Trump’s response.  A huge AI mis

December 30, 2024

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December Outlook: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics
Paying Article

December 30, 2024 8:05 AM UTC

All chapters of the December Outlook are now available and simply click the link below. 

December 29, 2024

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Russian Economy Grew by 3.6% YoY in November
Paying Article

December 29, 2024 9:57 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the preliminary figures announced by the Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP expanded by 3.6% YoY in November driven by strong military spending while monetary tightening, sanctions, and higher price pressures remain restrictive. We envisage growth to hit 1.6%

December 24, 2024

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December Outlook Webinar on Jan 7: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics
Paying Article

December 24, 2024 8:30 AM UTC

    The U.S. economy’s momentum remains reasonable before the impact of President-elect Trump’s policies in 2025 and 2026.  While high uncertainty exists on the scale and timing of policy, the strategic bias is clear – sizeable tax cuts that will boost the budget deficit; tariffs (threats

December 20, 2024

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Surprising Move: CBR Held Key Rate at 21% Despite Surging Inflation
Freemium Article

December 20, 2024 1:39 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite expectations, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on December 20 that it held the key rate constant at 21%. The CBR emphasized in its statement that monetary conditions tightened more significantly than envisaged by the October key rate decision, and it would continue to eval

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December Outlook: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics
Paying Article

December 20, 2024 12:15 PM UTC

All chapters of the December Outlook are now available and simply click the link below. 

December 19, 2024

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Outlook Overview: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics
Paying Article

December 19, 2024 9:25 AM UTC

·        The U.S. economy momentum remains reasonable before President elect Trump’s policies impact in 2025 and 2026.  While high uncertainty exists on the scale and timing of policies, the strategic bias is clear – sizeable tax cuts that will boost the budget deficit; tariffs (threats

December 18, 2024

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Jan 7 Outlook Webinar: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics
Paying Article

December 18, 2024 1:23 PM UTC

    The U.S. economy’s momentum remains reasonable before the impact of President-elect Trump’s policies in 2025 and 2026.  While high uncertainty exists on the scale and timing of policy, the strategic bias is clear – sizeable tax cuts that will boost the budget deficit; tariffs (threats

December 17, 2024

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EMEA Outlook: Rate Cuts in 2025 Despite Global Uncertainties
Paying Article

December 17, 2024 8:00 AM UTC

·     In South Africa, our end-year policy rate prediction remains at 7.0% for 2025 and 6.5% for 2026.  We foresee headline inflation will fall to 4.2% and 4.6% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, considering power cuts (loadshedding) are relieved and the domestic fiscal outlook is moderately stab

December 12, 2024

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Elevated Inflation Remains Sticky in Russia Amid Ruble Woes
Paying Article

December 12, 2024 3:33 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data released on December 11, inflation ticked up to 8.9% YoY in November after hitting 8.5% in October, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices,

December 10, 2024

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EM Europe and CIS: Select Country Risk Ratings
Paying Article

December 10, 2024 11:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for EM Europe/CIS countries including Russia and Turikye. 

November 26, 2024

Ukraine War Update: What is Next in Ukraine under New Trump Administration?
Freemium Article

November 26, 2024 1:14 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After Trump was elected for his second term, we foresee two major and one alternative scenario in Ukraine. Our first scenario is based on a negotiated settlement backed by the Trump administration, which could help Russia to gain assurance of no NATO/EU entry in the foreseeable future f

November 13, 2024

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Elevated Inflation in Russia Remains Persistent and Sticky in October
Freemium Article

November 13, 2024 5:21 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data released on November 13, inflation slightly cooled off to 8.5% YoY in October after hitting 8.6% in September but remained well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and

November 07, 2024

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CBR’s October MPC Summary Signals Another Rate Hike in December
Paying Article

November 7, 2024 7:22 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Russia (CBR) published the summary of October MPC meeting on November 6, and signaled another rate hike in December by noting that “While a rate hike at the next meeting is not predetermined, the probability is very high,” which can be associated with elevated inflat

October 31, 2024

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Russian Economy Grew by 2.9% YoY in September
Paying Article

October 31, 2024 10:51 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the preliminary figures announced by the Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP expanded by 2.9% YoY in September driven by military spending and investments. Ministry of Economic Development significantly upgraded its GDP growth outlook to 3.9% from 2.8% for 2024

October 28, 2024

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BRICS Summit 2024: Kazan Declaration not a Game Changer
Freemium Article

October 28, 2024 11:41 AM UTC

Bottom Line: The BRICS Summit, which was held in Kazan on October 22-24, was the first summit following BRICS has expanded to include Ethiopia, Iran, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. Despite expectations, Kazan deceleration, which was a joint statement signed after the summit, is not a game-chan

October 25, 2024

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CBR Hiked Key Rate to Historic 21% Level
Paying Article

October 25, 2024 12:31 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on October 25 that it increased its policy rate by 200 bps to 21% to tame the stubborn price pressures stemming from high military spending, tight labour market and fiscal policy igniting domestic demand. CBR said in a press release that “Over th

October 22, 2024

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EM Europe and CIS: Select Country Risk Ratings
Paying Article

October 22, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for EM Europe/CIS countries including Russia/Ukraine and Turikye. 

October 11, 2024

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Russia CPI Review: Moderate Fall in Inflation in September but Still Elevated
Freemium Article

October 11, 2024 6:48 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service data released on October 11, inflation cooled off to 8.6% YoY in September after hitting 9.1% both in August and July, but remained elevated due to surges in food and services prices, weakening Ruble (RUB), and huge military spending. The

October 04, 2024

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Ukraine War Update: Kursk Battle is Turning into a Stalemate
Paying Article

October 4, 2024 7:05 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After Ukraine’s offensive inside Russia's western Kursk region started early August, it seems the Russian military command is continuing to prioritize offensive operations in priority sectors of the frontline over long-term planning for Russia's theater-wide campaign in Ukraine as Rus

September 27, 2024

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September Outlook: Rate Cuts But How Far?
Paying Article

September 27, 2024 7:44 AM UTC

The 15 chapters of our September Outlook have now been published.  See the headlines and weblinks enclosed for links to the articles on economic, policy and markets for the 23 countries that we cover.

September 25, 2024

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Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts But How Far?
Paying Article

September 25, 2024 7:30 AM UTC

·        The U.S. economy is slowing, with the critical question being whether this is a soft or harder landing.  Our broad analysis leaves us inclined to the soft landing view into 2025, though we shall watch real sector data closely over the next 3-6 months to check the trajectory.  Else

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EMEA Outlook: Rate Cuts Loading in 2025
Paying Article

September 25, 2024 7:00 AM UTC

·     In Turkiye, we still foresee upside risks emanating from buoyant domestic demand, the stickiness of services inflation, and adverse geopolitical impacts leading average inflation to stand at 58.8% and 35.3% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. We think Central Bank of Republic of Turkiye (CBRT

September 15, 2024

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Sep 27 Outlook Webinar: Rate Cuts But How Far?
Paying Article

September 15, 2024 10:30 AM UTC

    Uncertainty about whether the U.S. economy will have a soft or hard landing is growing as the market approaches Q4.  This is shaping the debate regarding the scale of easing through the remainder of 2024 and 2025 by the Fed.  European easing is underway, but how much further will central ba

September 13, 2024

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As we Expected, CBR Hiked Key Rate to 19% as Inflation Continues to Soar
Paying Article

September 13, 2024 4:20 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on September 13 that it increased its policy rate by 100 bps to 19% to tame the stubborn price pressures stemming from high military spending, tight labour market and fiscal policy igniting domestic demand. CBR said in a press rele

September 11, 2024

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High Inflation Continues to Dominate Russian Economy: 9.1% YoY in August
Paying Article

September 11, 2024 6:44 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service data released on September 11, inflation stayed at 9.1% YoY in August after July, the highest reading since February 2023, due to adverse base effects, strong military spending, high domestic demand, tight labor market, continued expansion

August 30, 2024

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Strong Military Spending and Investment Growth Help Russian Economy Expand by 3.4% YoY in July
Paying Article

August 30, 2024 12:13 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the preliminary figures announced by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP grew by 3.4% YoY in June after expanding by 3% YoY in June driven by military production and investments. We foresee Russian economy will expand by 2.5% in 2024 despite aggress

August 27, 2024

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Ukraine War Update: Surprising Ukraine Incursion in Russia Continues
Paying Article

August 27, 2024 10:51 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Ukraine’s surprise cross-border offensive inside Russia's western Kursk region continues with pace as Ukrainians recently advanced near Sudzha. In response, Russian military deploys forces from lower priority sectors of the frontline in Ukraine to the frontline in Kursk Oblast. We for

August 14, 2024

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EM Markets Divergence with China Harder Landing Concerns
Paying Article

August 14, 2024 3:35 PM UTC

Global market turbulence has had a spillover impact into EM, but also some EM assets have benefitted from rotation away from the U.S.  What are the prospects in the coming months?
We see scope for a 2nd wave of U.S. equity and Japanese Yen (JPY) correction, which are a mixed influence for EM assets

August 12, 2024

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Ukraine War Update: Surprising Ukraine Incursion in Russia
Freemium Article

August 12, 2024 4:02 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After Russia executed strong counteroffensive operations in the western regions of Ukraine this summer, aiming to seize more territory before the U.S. presidential elections, Ukraine made a surprise attack in return and conducted a cross-border offensive inside Russia's western Kursk re

August 09, 2024

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Strong Inflation Rally Continued in July: 9.1% YoY
Paying Article

August 9, 2024 6:27 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service data released on August 9, inflation jumped to 9.1% YoY in July after hitting 8.6% YoY in June, the highest reading since February 2023, due to adverse base effects, strong military spending, high domestic demand, tight labor market, conti

August 01, 2024

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Rally Continues: Russian Economy Expands by 3% YoY in June
Paying Article

August 1, 2024 8:49 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the preliminary figures announced by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP grew by 3% YoY in June after expanding by a strong 4.5% YoY in May. We foresee Russian economy will expand by 2.5% in 2024 driven by a significant increase in military spending

July 26, 2024

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CBR Hiked Key Rate to 18% as Inflation Soars
Paying Article

July 26, 2024 2:16 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on July 26 that it increased its policy rate by 200 bps to 18% after four consecutive rate holds, and first time in 2024, to tame the stubborn price pressures stemming from high military spending, tight labour market and fiscal pol

July 15, 2024

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EM Europe and CIS: Select Country Risk Ratings
Paying Article

July 15, 2024 9:30 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for EM Europe/CIS countries including Russia/Ukraine and Kazakhstan. 

July 10, 2024

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Russia’s Inflation Continued Its Rally in June: 8.6% YoY
Freemium Article

July 10, 2024 6:51 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service data released on July 10, inflation jumped to 8.6% YoY in June after hitting 8.3% YoY in May, the highest reading since February 2023, due to strong military spending, tight labour market, and fiscal policy igniting domestic demand. The ne

July 05, 2024

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Russian Economy Expands by 4.5% YoY in May
Paying Article

July 5, 2024 11:56 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP grew by 4.5% YoY in May. We foresee Russian economy will expand by 2.5% in 2024 driven in part by a significant increase in military spending due to intensified Russian offensive operation

July 02, 2024

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Webinar Recording June Outlook: Cyclical and Structural Forces
Paying Article

July 2, 2024 7:30 AM UTC

June 26, 2024

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June Outlook: Cyclical and Structural Forces
Paying Article

June 26, 2024 7:58 AM UTC

The 15 chapters of our June Outlook have now been published.  See the headlines and weblinks enclosed for links to the articles on economic, policy and markets for the 23 countries that we cover

June 25, 2024

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Outlook Overview: Cyclical and Structural Forces
Paying Article

June 25, 2024 10:15 AM UTC

•    The global economy is showing signs of healing, as inflation comes back towards targets and growth recovers momentum in some economies. Nevertheless, the cyclical headwind of lagged monetary tightening remains in DM countries, and will likely be one of the forces slowing the U.S. economy

June 24, 2024

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EMEA Outlook: Stubborn Inflation Dominates
Paying Article

June 24, 2024 1:00 PM UTC

·     In Turkiye, we expect Central Bank of Republic of Turkiye (CBRT) will likely halt the key rate at 50% until the end of 2024, which is our baseline scenario. We expect a fall in inflation likely after July due to favorable base effects, additional macro prudential measures, public savings

June 14, 2024

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Russia’s Inflation Continued to Surge in May: 8.3% YoY
Paying Article

June 14, 2024 5:40 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service data released on June 14, inflation surged to 8.3% YoY in May after hitting 7.8% YoY in April, the highest since February 2023, due to high military spending, currency weakening, tight labour market, and fiscal policy igniting domestic dem

June 07, 2024

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CBR Kept the Key Rate Stable at 16% despite Increasing Inflation
Paying Article

June 7, 2024 12:57 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on June 7 that it decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 16% for the fourth meeting in a row, but signalled that a rate hike is possible in the near term to tame the stubborn price pressures stemming from high military spending, tight labour