Negotiations to End Ukraine War to Start Soon

Trump and Putin Discussed the Fate of Ukraine

Despite Ukraine war not being a priority in Trump’s agenda, and Trump mostly focused on immigration and tariffs after he took the office on January 20, Trump and Putin finally talked over the phone for nearly 90 minutes to discuss the fate of Ukraine, among other topics such as the Middle East, energy, and AI. Following the call, Trump wrote on social media that “We agreed to work together, very closely, including visiting each other’s Nations. We have also agreed to have our respective teams start negotiations immediately, and I will begin by calling President Zelenskyy to inform him of the conversation.”

In the meantime, U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth gave some significant signals on what will likely happen next in Ukraine during his speech to NATO leaders on February 12. Hegseth indicated that NATO membership for Ukraine was unrealistic, and the country should abandon hopes of returning to its pre-2014 borders and prepare for a negotiated settlement with Russia that would be backed up by international troops.

Hegseth added that no peacekeeping U.S. troops will be deployed to Ukraine as any part of security guarantees, and the possible peacekeeping force should not have Article 5 protections which could require the U.S. or the 31 other nations of the NATO alliance to come to the aid of those forces in the future. Hegseth also highlighted Trump’s intent on getting Europe to assume most of the financial and military responsibilities for the defense of Ukraine.

On the other side of the coin, it appears Kremlin’s terms to end the war remain the same. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said this week that the war in Ukraine would last until Kyiv srops its ambitions to join NATO  and withdraws from the four regions occupied by Russian forces.

Under current circumstances, we feel that a ceasefire followed by a Russia-friendly peace deal is highly probable in 2025. Russia will likely continue to annex areas in and around four Ukrainian oblasts, and would be determined to hold most parts of Donetsk region. The deal will likely include terms that Ukraine does not join NATO and possibly EU in a foreseeable future. We think Ukraine will likely be excluded from peace talks between the U.S. and Russia since we know that Putin does not want to directly engage with Ukraine president Zelenskyy. We foresee a direct negotiation process between Trump and Putin, which will be followed and then agreed by Kyiv administration. 

It seems Europe will have to step in and assume more financial and military responsibilities for the defense of Ukraine after the war is over, though we feel the EU can’t fill the U.S. shoes and possible peacekeeping forces by Europe will not be very deterrent in the absence of the U.S. It is obvious that the EU will have to increase its defense spending in the next few years (here). More crucially, internal divisions within the EU will mean that the EU cannot provide credible future security commitments on its own. We also envisage Russia will likely be much less aggressive after the deal in order to rebuild its war-torn economy and strengthen militarily again and this period could last for at least 3-5 years.