Trump-Putin Meeting in Horizon, Date Still Unknown

Trump and Putin to Discuss Ukraine and Energy Prices

During his election campaign, Trump vowed to end war in Ukraine in 24 hours if elected, despite he did not provide details back then. After Trump took the office as of January 20, the answer to this question remains unclear. Under current circumstances, it is obvious that this timeline is unrealistic and Trump administration will need months as confirmed by Trump’s choice for special Ukraine peace envoy, Keith Kellogg, who has recently revised this to 100 days.

Talking about the prospective meeting between Trump and Putin, both leaders said last week they were ready for contact but did not mention how and when. The Kremlin said on January 27 that Russia is still waiting a signal from the U.S. about the meeting. "So far, we have not received any signals from the Americans. The readiness remains. The same readiness, as we have heard, remains on the American side," Kremlin spokesman Peskov emphasized.  In line with this, Putin underscored that "It would be better for us to meet, based on the realities of today, to talk calmly on all those areas that are of interest to both the United States and Russia. We are ready."

The exchange between Trump and Putin was very interesting last week. According to the New York Times, Trump jabbed at the Russian leader with threats; and Putin responded with flattery. Trump first threatened to hit Russia with massive tariffs and sanctions on January 22 if it does not make a deal to end the war in Ukraine, despite the fact that U.S.-Russia trade is already very limited due to sanctions.

Trump told reporters on January 23 that he was willing to meet Putin immediately to reach a deal to end the fighting while Putin responded on January 24 praising Trump as a smart and pragmatic man, saying the conflict might not have started in 2022 had he been president, and leaving the door open for negotiations.

On the contrary, Ukrainian president’s office head Yermak said in a statement on January 24 that "Putin is trying to promote the idea of ​​negotiations with the U.S. But he wants to agree on the fate of Europe — without Europe. And he wants to talk about Ukraine — without Ukraine, " indicating that Kiev can’t be excluded from any peace talks.

In addition to the war in Ukraine, Putin and Trump are also expected to discuss energy issues when they meet, particularly after Trump stated that he would ask the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), of which Russia is a member, to lower the oil price adding that this would end the war immediately. Kremlin spokesperson Peskov recently opposed the statement, saying that the war is not dependent on oil prices and is taking place because of the danger to Russia and the Russians.

We feel Ukraine war is not a priority in Trump’s agenda while Trump is most focused on his priorities of immigration and tariffs. We think Trump and Putin will likely meet in spring, and Ukraine war would be brought to Trump’s agenda in all its parts in 5-6 months. We continue to foresee a ceasefire which can turn into a negotiated peace deal (50% chance) since Russia and Ukraine are both exhausted and willing to consider a ceasefire and some form of peace discussions. We continue to feel that the U.S. administration will not be soft on Russia for fear it could show Donald Trump as weak. Effectively giving Russia a win would be a signal to the Kremlin that aggression is rewarded and the West has no appetite to intervene, critics say.

We feel finalizing peace deal talks can take longer than expected, maybe years, after a likely 2025 ceasefire. Two questions, whose answers remain unclear, include either Ukraine will be directly involved in peace negotiations, and the final terms of peace deal. We think these will depend on Trump and Putin ego-stroking and political dogfight in the upcoming months.