Negotiations to End Ukraine War Started: What is Next?

Time Has Come: Trump and Putin will Decide Ukraine’s Fate  

After U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth gave significant signals on what will likely happen next in Ukraine on February 12 indicating that NATO membership for Ukraine is unrealistic, and the country should abandon hopes of returning to its pre-2014 borders and prepare for a negotiated settlement with Russia, the cloud of dust is slowly disappearing on the details of ongoing U.S.-Russia negotiation process to end the war.

Starting from Russian side, it appears the Kremlin’s terms to end the war remain the same currently despite Russia signaling its readiness to give some concessions. Minister of foreign affairs Lavrov underscored on February 24 that Moscow is ready to negotiate for a peace deal, including with Ukraine and Europe, and added that Russia will only stop once there’s a solid and durable result that suits Russia, despite the fact that Lavrov said -just the opposite- last week rejecting European involvement in future peace negotiations.

Additionally, it seems Russia will accept European peacekeeping forces to be deployed in Ukraine, confirmed by Trump on February 24 highlighting Putin is ready to accept this, which would be a major U-turn from the Russians, who have insisted that deploying NATO troops in Ukraine would represent an escalation. It seems Russia has left the door open for Europeans to deploy a reassurance force in Ukraine after the peace deal, which could be several hundred kms from the front line.  However, it is not clear whether Russia would see this under a UN umbrella and with limited rules of engagement. The UK government is reported to be considering 1-5k troops. This will likely fall short of Ukraine desires.

On the other side of the coin, Ukraine side remains insistent that Ukraine should be included in the negotiations process, acknowledged by president Zelensky on February 24, who emphasized peace can only be the result of well-considered diplomacy and clear security guarantees – which looks unlikely from the U.S. and Europe, but Ukraine is in a weak negotiating place. Zelenskyy indicated over the weekend he wants to see Trump as a partner to Ukraine not a mediator, and he is ready to resign for NATO entry while both statements sound unlikely for now.

Turning to the U.S. side, sources cite that Trump wants to secure a cease-fire in Ukraine by Easter, which is in April despite it’s being unclear whether Trump administration will be able to push parties for a cease-fire soon. Trump expressed confidence the war could end within weeks, but warned that, without an agreement, the fighting could spiral into World War III. We envisage an accelerated cease-fire could be reached in spring and it can take up to 6-12 months for a final peace deal to be sealed.

Trump's administration remains committed to sign an agreement handing the U.S. access to hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Ukrainian resources including rare earth minerals, which was actually proposed by Zelenskyy last year. Trump stated on February 24 he is confident Ukraine would soon finalize an agreement by which Kyiv would cede some of its critical raw materials to America, highlighting that the U.S. would get their money back over a period of time as payback for previously supplied aid.  However, this would be an economic deal leading to close ties and interest, rather than military security during a peace deal.  The U.S. remains very vague on whether a peace deal would see any U.S. security guarantees. This is why Ukraine has been slowing in signing a deal, but Ukraine appears to be willing to consider a deal after some U.S. economic concessions. 

In the meantime, Putin also offered to sell minerals to Trump, including from Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine. Putin suggested Russia could resume selling aluminum to the U.S., saying Moscow was ready to supply about 2 million tons to the American market.  This perhaps shows that Russia is keen to restart trade with the U.S.

Under current circumstances, we still feel that a cease-fire followed by a Russia-friendly peace deal is highly probable. Russia will likely continue to annex areas in and around four Ukrainian oblasts, and would be determined to hold most parts of Donetsk region. The deal will likely include terms that Ukraine does not join NATO. We think Ukraine will likely be excluded from bilateral peace talks between the U.S. and Russia since we know that Putin does not want to directly engage with Ukraine president Zelenskyy. We foresee a direct negotiation process between Trump and Putin, which will be followed and then agreed by Kyiv administration as Zelenskyy could be forced to step down after the cease-fire will be in place.  It currently looks like security guarantees will be weak from Europe and the U.S.