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February 17, 2025

Preview: Due February 18 - Canada January CPI - To fall on GST tax holiday
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February 17, 2025 2:40 PM UTC

We expect Canadian CPI to slip to 1.7% yr/yr in January from 1.8% in December, the fall largely due to a temporary suspension of the Goods and Services Tax that will ran from Mid-December through Mid-February. Before slightly disappointing data, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that the t

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Stubborn Inflation Continues to Stay Elevated in the First Month of 2025
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 9:33 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation ticked up to 9.9% YoY in January after hitting 9.5% in December, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending,

February 14, 2025

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Preview: Due February 28 - U.S. January Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to underperform Core CPI
Paying Article

February 14, 2025 4:33 PM UTC

We expect a 0.3% rise in January’s core PCE price index, slower than the 0.4% seen from core CPI, while we expect a modest 0.3% rise in personal income to outpace an unusual 0.1% decline in personal spending.

U.S. January Industrial Production - Aircraft and utilities up, mining and autos slip, elsewhere not much change
Paying Article

February 14, 2025 2:33 PM UTC

January industrial production is up a stronger than expected 0.5% more than fully due to a 7.2% surge in utilities that looks like a response to cold weather. Manufacturing fell by 0.1% despite a positive contribution from aircraft as Boeing recovered from a strike, with weather likely a negative he

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U.S. January Retail Sales - Slippage likely to be weather-induced
Paying Article

February 14, 2025 1:57 PM UTC

January retail sales at -0.9% saw a significant downside surprise, though we believe the main reason for weakness was bad weather, with a correction from strength in Q4 also likely to be a factor. The core rates were also weak, ex auto at -0.4%, ex auto and gas at -0.5%, and the control group that c

February 13, 2025

Preview: Due February 14 - U.S. January Industrial Production - Cold weather to lift utilities, depress manufacturing
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 2:43 PM UTC

We expect January industrial production to rise by 0.1% overall but with a 0.2% decline in manufacturing. Utilities are likely to be lifted by unusually cold weather which is likely to restrain production elsewhere.

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Preview: Due February 14 - U.S. January Retail Sales - Weather to bring correction from Q4 strength
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 2:33 PM UTC

We expect US retail sales to fall by 1.0% in January with declines of 0.2% both ex autos and ex autos and gasoline. The monthly weakness is likely to be largely due to bad weather with potential for a correction from Q4 strength adding to downside risk.

U.S. January PPI - Trend remains firm, Initial Claims fall
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 1:59 PM UTC

January PPI is slightly stronger than expected overall at 0.4%, but on consensus at 0.3% in both of the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. December revisions however mean that yr/yr rates are higher than expected, overall PPI at 3.5%, ex food and energy at 3.6% and ex food

February 12, 2025

Preview: Due February 13 - U.S. January PPI - Core rates to bounce from a weak December, but yr/yr rates to slip
Paying Article

February 12, 2025 2:22 PM UTC

We expect January PPI to pick up from a below trend December, rising by 0.3% overall and 0.4% in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade, as new year price hikes are introduced. However, a stronger rise in January 2024 will allow yr/yr rates to slip. 

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U.S. January CPI - A clear disappointment
Paying Article

February 12, 2025 2:05 PM UTC

January CPI is a clear disappointment rising by 0.5% overall and 0.4% ex food and energy (0.446% before rounding). While there is a problem of residual seasonality bringing strength in Q1 data, that yr/yr rates accelerated, overall to 3.0% from 2.9%, and ex food and energy to 3.3% from 3.2%, will be

Brazil CPI Review: Mixed Signs from January Inflation
Paying Article

February 12, 2025 12:33 AM UTC

Brazil’s CPI rose 0.16% in January, lowering Y/Y inflation to 4.5% from 4.8%. A temporary electricity discount drove the decline, while Food (+1%) and Transport (+1.3%) showed worrying increases. Core inflation rose 0.7%, with Services CPI jumping to 5.4%, partly due to seasonal healthcare costs.

February 11, 2025

Preview: Due February 27 - U.S. January Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to lead but ex transport to rise
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February 11, 2025 7:37 PM UTC

We expect January durable orders to increase by 3.5% overall with a 0.4% increase ex transport. The rise is likely to be led by civil aircraft in a rebound from a weak December, though we expect orders ex transport to sustain a recent improvement in trend. 

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Preview: Due February 12 - U.S. January CPI - Core rate to pick up on the month but slow yr/yr
Paying Article

February 11, 2025 1:19 PM UTC

We expect January’s CPI to increase by 0.3% both overall and ex food and energy, with the overall figure close to 0.3% even before rounding, but the core rate rising by 0.33%, which would be the strongest monthly gain since the three months of Q1 2024 each showed monthly core rates of 0.4% (each a

U.S. January NFIB survey corrects after sharp post-election bounce
Paying Article

February 11, 2025 12:52 PM UTC

January’s NFIB index of Small Business Optimism to at 102.8 from 105.1 has corrected from its post-election bounce. 

February 10, 2025

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Mexico CPI Review: Inflation Falls as Demand Eases
Paying Article

February 10, 2025 7:14 PM UTC

Mexico’s CPI rose 0.3% in January, below its 0.6% historical average but in line with expectations. Y/Y inflation fell to 3.6%, the lowest since Jan/2021. Core CPI rose 0.4%, with core goods up 0.7% and services up 0.2%. Non-core CPI fell 0.13%, led by a 1.5% drop in agricultural goods. The econom

Preview: Due 26 February - U.S. January New Home Sales - A hit from weather
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February 10, 2025 4:11 PM UTC

We expect a January new home sales level of 630k, which would be a steep 9.7% decline if December’s 3.6% increase to 698k is unrevised, though we would see any January weakness as likely to be temporary and due to bad weather. October, hit by hurricanes, saw an even steeper 15.3% fall. 

Preview: Due February 21 - U.S. February S&P PMIs - Manufacturing to rise further, Services to correct higher
Paying Article

February 10, 2025 3:16 PM UTC

We expect February’s S and P PMIs to show a further rise in manufacturing, to a 12-month high of 52.0 from 51.2, and a correction higher in services to 54.5 from a 9-month low of 52.9. 

Preview: Due February 21 - U.S. January Existing Home Sales - A modest correction lower
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February 10, 2025 1:44 PM UTC

We expect January existing home sales to fall by a modest 0.9% to 4.20m after three straight significantly stronger gains. Looking ahead, we note that February saw sharp gains in both 2023 and 2024.

February 07, 2025

Preview: Due February 19 - U.S. January Housing Starts and Permits - Starts to correct lower, permits seen stable
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February 7, 2025 7:48 PM UTC

We expect January housing starts to fall by 8.6% to 1.37m in a correction from a 15.8% December rise, with bad weather in January adding to downside risk. We however expect permits to be almost unchanged, -0.1% to 1480k after a modest 0.7% decline in December.

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Russian Economy Grew by 4.1% YoY in 2024
Paying Article

February 7, 2025 7:22 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Russian State Statistics Service (Rosstat) on February 7, Russia's GDP expanded by 4.1% YoY in 2024 driven by strong military spending, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. We envisage growth to hit 1.6% in 2025, which is significantly less than

Preview: Due February 14 - U.S. January Industrial Production - Cold weather to lift utilities, depress manufacturing
Paying Article

February 7, 2025 4:49 PM UTC

We expect January industrial production to rise by 0.1% overall but with a 0.2% decline in manufacturing. Utilities are likely to be lifted by unusually cold weather which is likely to restrain production elsewhere.

U.S. February Michigan CSI - Consumers look concerned about tariffs
Paying Article

February 7, 2025 3:21 PM UTC

February’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 68.7 from 71.1 is weaker than expected and the lowest since July, with the dip appearing to come from a sharp rise in 1-year inflation expectations, to 4.3% from 3.3%, which is the highest since November 2023.

Canada January Employment - Rate cuts helping, but tariff risk persists
Paying Article

February 7, 2025 2:40 PM UTC

Canada has delivered a strong employment report in January, with a 76k increase allowing unemployment to slip to 6.6% from 6.7%, though wages slipped to 3.7% yr/yr from 3.8%. This backs a Bank of Canada view expressed at January’s meeting that growth is responding to rate cuts without lifting infl

U.S. January Employment with historical revisions - Charts and table
Paying Article

February 7, 2025 2:13 PM UTC

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U.S. January Employment - Trend still strong despite a weather-restrained January
Paying Article

February 7, 2025 2:09 PM UTC

January’s non-farm payroll with a 143k increase is on the low side of expectations, though we suspect January data was restrained by bad weather. A dip in the workweek is also probably weather-induced and may be behind an above trend 0.5% rise in earnings per hour. Unemployment slipped to 4.0% fro

February 06, 2025

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Preview: Due February 7 - U.S. January Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - A slower month given bad weather
Paying Article

February 6, 2025 2:47 PM UTC

We expect a below trend 125k increase in January’s non-farm payroll, with a 95k rise in the private sector. The data is likely to be restrained by bad weather and a possible correction from an above trend December. The workweek is likely to fall on bad weather but we expect unemployment to be unch

U.S. Initial Claims correct higher but still low, Few scares in Q4 Productivity and Costs report
Paying Article

February 6, 2025 1:53 PM UTC

Initial claims at 219k have corrected higher from last week’s 208k which was the lowest since February 2024 but remain consistent with a healthy labor market.  Continued claims with a 36k rise to 1.886k have also corrected higher following a preceding 50k decline. 

February 05, 2025

U.S. January ISM Services - Dip may be weather-related
Paying Article

February 5, 2025 3:15 PM UTC

January’s ISM services index at 52.8 from 54.0 is weaker than market expectations though consistent with the S and P services PMI released earlier. It is possible bad weather, with very cold weather in much of the country probably more significant than the localized Los Angeles fires, restrained t

U.S. January ADP Employment - Consumer facing industries lead healthy gain
Paying Article

February 5, 2025 1:31 PM UTC

ADP’s January estimate for private sector employment growth of 183k is on the firm side of expectations and in line with trend given positive recent back month revisions. We still see risk of a below trend non-farm payroll in January due to bad weather, which ADP data tends to be less sensitive to

February 04, 2025

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BCB Minutes: Detailing the Deterioration
Paying Article

February 4, 2025 6:29 PM UTC

The BCB raised rates by 100bps to 13.25%, signaling another hike in March. External uncertainty remains, but domestic risks worsened, with inflation expectations rising. The BCB stressed fiscal-monetary coordination and warned about policy distortions. Despite markets pricing a 15% rate, we expect s

Preview: Due February 18 - Canada January CPI - To fall on GST tax holiday
Paying Article

February 4, 2025 5:20 PM UTC

We expect Canadian CPI to slip to 1.7% yr/yr in January from 1.8% in December, the fall largely due to a temporary suspension of the Goods and Services Tax that will ran from Mid-December through Mid-February. Before slightly disappointing data, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that the t

U.S. December JOLTS report sees Job Openings correct lower
Paying Article

February 4, 2025 3:10 PM UTC

December’s JOLTS report shows a steep 516k decline in job openings, which should be seen as corrective from two strong months with the 3-month average still positive. 

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Preview: Due February 14 - U.S. January Retail Sales - Weather to bring correction from Q4 strength
Paying Article

February 4, 2025 2:42 PM UTC

We expect US retail sales to fall by 1.0% in January with declines of 0.2% both ex autos and ex autos and gasoline. The monthly weakness is likely to be largely due to bad weather with potential for a correction from Q4 strength adding to downside risk.

Preview: Due February 5 - U.S. January ISM Services - Bad weather may deliver a hit
Paying Article

February 4, 2025 1:39 PM UTC

We expect January’s ISM services index to slip to 52.5 from 54.0 in December, returning the index to November’s level. Unusually cold weather in much of the country and to a lesser extent the Los Angeles fires provide downside risk.

Preview: Due February 5 - U.S. December Trade Balance - Sharp deterioration likely
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February 4, 2025 1:19 PM UTC

We expect a December trade deficit of $98.0bn, up from $78.2bn in November and only modestly below a record $101.9bn seen in March 2022. We expect exports to fall by 2.8% and imports to rise by 3.5%.

Preview: Due February 5 - U.S. January ADP Employment - Less sensitive to bad weather than non-farm payrolls
Paying Article

February 4, 2025 1:04 PM UTC

We expect a 145k increase in January’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, which is significantly above our 95k increase for January’s private sector non-farm payroll, which is likely to be more sensitive to bad weather than the ADP report. We expect overall non-farm payrolls, inc

February 03, 2025

U.S. January ISM Manufacturing - Move above neutral will be tested by a trade war
Paying Article

February 3, 2025 3:18 PM UTC

January’s ISM manufacturing index at 50.9 from 49.2 has moved above neutral for the first time since late 2022, giving a positive picture of manufacturing ahead of the commencing trade war. The trade war is likely to be negative for manufacturing as supply chains are damaged.

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Turkish Inflation Continued to Decelerate in January
Paying Article

February 3, 2025 8:19 AM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on February 3 that consumer price index (CPI) softened to 42.1% y/y in January with education, health, and housing prices leading the rise in the index. We think lagged impacts of previous tightening, relative Turkish lira (TRY) stability,

January 31, 2025

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Mexico GDP Review: 0.6% Contraction in Q4 and Recession Risks
Paying Article

January 31, 2025 6:34 PM UTC

Mexico’s GDP shrank by 0.6% in Q4 2024, bringing annual growth to 1.5%, well below previous years. The industrial sector led the decline, driven by uncertainty over Trump’s election and weaker investment, while agriculture also contracted sharply. Monetary tightening, lower U.S. demand, and poli

Preview: Due February 13 - U.S. January PPI - Core rates to bounce from a weak December, but yr/yr rates to slip
Paying Article

January 31, 2025 5:12 PM UTC

We expect January PPI to pick up from a below trend December, rising by 0.3% overall and 0.4% in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade, as new year price hikes are introduced. However, a stronger rise in January 2024 will allow yr/yr rates to slip. 

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Preview: Due February 12 - U.S. January CPI - Core rate to pick up on the month but slow yr/yr
Paying Article

January 31, 2025 3:28 PM UTC

We expect January’s CPI to increase by 0.3% both overall and ex food and energy, with the overall figure close to 0.3% even before rounding, but the core rate rising by 0.33%, which would be the strongest monthly gain since the three months of Q1 2024 each showed monthly core rates of 0.4% (each a

Preview: Due February 3 - U.S. January ISM Manufacturing - A marginal improvement, not quite to neutral
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January 31, 2025 2:59 PM UTC

We expect a January 1SM manufacturing index of 49.5 from 49.2 in December, which would be the highest since March 2024 briefly moved above the neutral 50 level.

Canada November GDP - A weak month with tariffs threatening
Paying Article

January 31, 2025 2:18 PM UTC

November Canadian GDP with a 0.2% decline was weaker than the -0.1% estimate made with October’s release, where the increase was unrevised at 0.3%, The preliminary estimate for December is for a rise of 0.2%, which if accurate would leave Q4 GDP near a 1.8% annualized estimate made by the Bank of

U.S. December Personal Income, Spending and Core PCE Prices confirm Q4 totals, Q4 Employment Cost Index as expected
Paying Article

January 31, 2025 1:56 PM UTC

December’s personal income and spending data is largely old news with Q4 totals having been seen in the GDP report. Gains of 0.2% in core PCE prices and 0.4% in personal income are in line with expectations, but spending with a 0.7% increase with positive back month revisions reflects the strong c

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German Data Review: Mixed Inflation News but Politics Dominate?
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January 31, 2025 1:28 PM UTC

As Germany faces possibly deeper and more prolonged political deadlock, its disinflation process continues, but there are signs that the downtrend is flattening out and this may be the message into the rest of 2025. Indeed, January HICP inflation stayed at 2.8% an outcome largely as expected.   Bu

January 30, 2025

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BCB Review: Maintaining the Course
Freemium Article

January 30, 2025 6:09 PM UTC

The Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) raised the policy rate by 100bps to 13.25%, signaling another hike in March while monitoring economic data. The statement had a neutral-to-dovish tone, with inflation risks stemming from services CPI, unanchored expectations, and fiscal policy. Market projections see

Preview: Due February 5 - U.S. December Trade Balance - Sharp deterioration likely
Paying Article

January 30, 2025 3:54 PM UTC

We expect a December trade deficit of $98.0bn, up from $78.2bn in November and only modestly below a record $101.9bn seen in March 2022. We expect exports to fall by 2.8% and imports to rise by 3.5%.

Preview: Due January 31 - Canada November GDP - A dip, but Q4 looking stronger than Q3
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January 30, 2025 3:14 PM UTC

We expect Canadian GDP to see a 0.1% decline in November, in line with a preliminary estimate made with October’s 0.3% increase. That would suggest a trend of around 0.1% per month. A 0.1% increase in December would leave Q4 marginally below 2.0% annualized, up from 1.0% in Q3. The Bank of Canada

U.S. December Pending Home Sales - Significant correction from recent strength
Paying Article

January 30, 2025 3:06 PM UTC

Pending home sales with a 5.5% December decline have seen a significant correction from four straight gains, which may reflect fading expectations for further Fed easing.

Preview: Due January 31 - U.S. December Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to match Core CPI
Paying Article

January 30, 2025 2:44 PM UTC

December’s personal income and spending report will be largely old news, with Q4 totals seen with the GDP report on January 30. Our pre-GDP forecasts for a 0.2% rise in core PCE prices and a 0.4% rise in personal income still look valid, though the GDP data is consistent with a 1.3% rise in person