U.S. April CPI - Little tariff pass-through so far

May 13, 2025 1:02 PM UTC

April CPI is on the low side of expectations at 0.2% both overall and ex food and energy, showing a loss of inflationary momentum since a strong start to the year in January, despite the imposition of tariffs. The core rate was up 0.24% before rounding, with the overall pace 0.22%, so the surprise i

Preview: Due May 22 - U.S. May S&P PMIs - Manufacturing to slip below neutral, Services to hold above

May 12, 2025 12:51 PM UTC

We expect May’s S and P PMIs to show slippage in manufacturing, to 49.5 from 50.2, but a correction higher on services, to 51.5 from 50.8. Underlying momentum in both series appears to be slowing, though this may fade if trade uncertainty is reduced.

Preview: Due May 13 - U.S. April CPI - Upside risk after a below trend March

May 12, 2025 12:02 PM UTC

We expect April CPI to increase by 0.3% overall and by 0.4% ex food and energy, the core rate reflecting a rebound from a below trend March as well as some impact from tariffs, though the extent of the tariff impact is highly uncertain. We see the core rate at 0.38% before rounding.

U.S. Initial Claims correct lower, Unit Labor Costs see a strong quarter

May 8, 2025 12:53 PM UTC

Initial claims at 227k from 241k have reversed most but not all of a spike last week blamed on temporary factors in New York, while continued claims have seen only a partial correction of a sharp preceding rise. A 5.7% increase in Q1 unit labor costs is stronger than expected but above trend.

Brazil: Reaching the Rate Peak

May 8, 2025 6:43 AM UTC

Forward guidance from the BCB after the 50bps hike to 14.75% suggests that we are close to a rate peak, with inflation concerns now cited on both sides.  The disinflationary impact of Trump tariffs on global trade and commodity prices is now being watched, as BCB members have signaled over the last

Preview: Due May 15 - U.S. April PPI - A stronger month after a weak March

May 6, 2025 5:05 PM UTC

We expect April PPI to bounce from a weak March with a 0.3% rise overall and a 0.4% increase ex food and energy. Ex food, energy and trade, we expect a rise of 0.3%. Tariffs are likely to continue supporting goods prices while services are likely to correct from a weak March.

Preview: Due May 13 - U.S. April CPI - Upside risk after a below trend March

May 6, 2025 3:49 PM UTC

We expect April CPI to increase by 0.3% overall and by 0.4% ex food and energy, the core rate reflecting a rebound from a below trend March as well as some impact from tariffs, though the extent of the tariff impact is highly uncertain. We see the core rate at 0.38% before rounding.

Preview: Due May 6 - U.S. March Trade Balance - Record deficit on pre-tariff import surge

May 5, 2025 12:00 PM UTC

We expect a record March deficit of $140.4bn, up from $122.7bn in February and the previous record of $130.7bn set in January. We expect a marginal 0.1% decline in exports but a surge of 4.4% in imports ahead of the April 2 tariff announcement. 

Annual Inflation Slightly Decreased in April Despite MoM Hit 3.0% Due to High FX Pass Through

May 5, 2025 10:15 AM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on May 5 that the inflation softened to 37.9% y/y in April from 38.1% y/y in March. We think monetary tightening and suppressed wages helped relieve the price pressure despite hikes in electricity and natural gas prices in April, and curre

Preview: Due May 15 - U.S. April Retail Sales - Autos to correct lower, but underlying momentum to persist

May 2, 2025 6:22 PM UTC

After a strong 1.5% increase in March, we expect retail sales to rise by only 0.1% in April, though gains of 0.4% ex autos and 0.5% ex autos and gasoline should show that the consumer still has some underlying momentum, despite plunging consumer confidence.

U.S. April Employment - Suggests economy where Fed wants it, but can it persist?

May 2, 2025 12:57 PM UTC

April’s non-farm payroll with a 177k increase is on the firm side of expectations and shows the labor market remained solid in early April, but the upside surprise is offset by 58k in net downward revisions. Unemployment was unchanged at 4.2% as expected but a below consensus 0.2% rise in average

U.S. April ISM Manufacturing - Headlines provide some relief, but picture remains worrying

May 1, 2025 2:20 PM UTC

April’s ISM manufacturing index of 48.7 has held up better than expected, and most regional Fed surveys, falling only marginally from March’s 49.0. Prices paid have also shown less response to the increased tariffs than generally feared, with only a marginal gain to 69.8 from 69.4.

Preview: Due May 2 - U.S. April Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Few clear signals for labor market weakness

May 1, 2025 12:57 PM UTC

We expect a 145k increase in April’s non-farm payroll, with 135k in the private sector, the latter equal to the Q1 average. Initial claims were showing no signs of labor market weakness in the payroll survey week, with a bounce in the latest week not yet a clear change in trend. We expect unemploy

U.S. Initial Claims bounce a warning rather than a clear change of trend

May 1, 2025 12:44 PM UTC

Initial claims and continued claims have both seen a bounce in the latest week, the former to 241kk from 223k and the latter to 1916k from 1833k. While there may be some seasonal adjustment issues from Easter, the data serves as a tentative warning that the labor market may be starting to lose momen

Turkiye Inflation Preview: CPI is Expected to Slightly Increase in April

April 30, 2025 4:47 PM UTC

Bottom line: After easing to 38.1% annually in March, we expect consumer price index (CPI) will slightly surge to 38.2%-38.3% YoY in April. Despite tight monetary policy and moderately falling demand helped relieving the price pressure in Q1, April inflation will likely stand at higher-than-expect

Mexico’s GDP Review: Saved from the Technical Recession, but Growth Slows

April 30, 2025 2:52 PM UTC

Mexico narrowly avoided a technical recession in Q1 2025 with 0.2% GDP growth, driven by a volatile rebound in agriculture. However, industrial output contracted and services stagnated, highlighting a broader economic slowdown. Uncertainty over potential U.S. tariffs and tight monetary and fiscal po

U.S. Q1 GDP - Charts and Table

April 30, 2025 1:16 PM UTC

U.S. Q1 GDP dips, Imports surge goes into inventories and business investment

April 30, 2025 1:07 PM UTC

The 0.3% decline in Q1 GDP is in line with expectations that were downgraded from a marginal increase after yesterday’s sharp rise in March’s advance goods trade deficit. A 3.5% rise in the core PCE price index is stronger than expected. While the Q1 data does not tell us very much about Q2, the

U.S. April ADP Employment - Weak but detail looks unlikely to be matched in non-farm payroll

April 30, 2025 12:26 PM UTC

ADP’s April estimate of private sector employment growth of 62k is a significant slowing from recent trend, though the ADP track record as a non-farm payroll indicator leaves us cautious over revising our payroll call of 145k, 135k private sector. Initial claims still suggest little labor market w

U.S. April Consumer Confidence, March JOLTS Job Openings - Future weakness signalled

April 29, 2025 2:29 PM UTC

The latest data suggest upcoming weakness in the US economy. March consumer confidence at 86.0 from 93.9 continues its recent slide with the drop being led by future expectations, while March’s JOLTS report on job openings has seen a steeper than expected drop of 288k to 7192k, with February revis

Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. Q1 GDP - A modest decline, but less steep than trade data implies

April 29, 2025 1:24 PM UTC

Q1 US GDP is subject to exceptional uncertainty with calculations based on the components suggesting a significant decline, largely due to a surge in imports. However with non-farm payrolls showing a 0.5% rise in aggregate hours worked a steep fall looks unlikely. We predict a modest GDP decline of

Preview: Due April 30 - Canada February GDP - A stall before a fall

April 29, 2025 12:00 PM UTC

We expect Canadian GDP to be unchanged in February, in line with a preliminary estimate made with January’s strong 0.4% increase. As tariffs risk build, we expect the preliminary estimate for March to be modestly negative.

Preview: Due April 29 - U.S. March Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to correct further, but remain very high

April 28, 2025 12:11 PM UTC

We expect an advance March goods trade deficit of $139.5bn, down from $147.8bn in February and a record $154.6bn in January, but still above December’s $122.1bn, which itself was a record high before the Q1 data was seen.  Importers were still trying to beat the tariffs imposed in April.  

Brazil: Fiscal Result Improves but Structural Changes Remains in Doubt

April 23, 2025 5:57 PM UTC

Brazil’s fiscal data shows slight improvement, with a 0.1% primary deficit by February and a 2024 deficit in line with targets, excluding flood aid. The 2025 goal is a 0% deficit, but structural issues remain. Recent gains stem from reduced court-ordered payments and delayed hiring. However, risin

Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. April ADP Employment - Slightly slower than March, and probably April's payroll

April 23, 2025 4:44 PM UTC

We expect a 125k increase in April’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth. This would be slower than March’s 155k and slightly below the 135k increase we expect from April’s non-farm payroll. However there is little evidence yet of labor market weakness despite the elevated uncert

Preview: Due May 2 - U.S. April Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Few signals for labor market weakness

April 23, 2025 3:31 PM UTC

We expect a 145k increase in April’s non-farm payroll, with 135k in the private sector, the latter equal to the Q1 average, with initial claims showing no signs of labor market weakness. We expect unemployment to correct lower to 4.1% after a March rise to 4.2%, and an in line with trend 0.3% incr

U.S. March New Home Sales - Bounce probably assisted by weather, no clear trend

April 23, 2025 2:14 PM UTC

March new home sales at 724k are up by 7.4% and the highest since April 2024. The strength outperforms most recent housing sector surveys though there is still little clear direction to trend. Improved weather is probably the main reason for the monthly bounce.