U.S. July Industrial Production - A flat picture, but Empire State survey stronger in August

August 15, 2025 1:28 PM UTC

July industrial production has seen a 0.1% decline overall with manufacturing unchanged, both following two straight gains. Mining fell by 0.4%, a second straight drop, while weather-sensitive utilities saw a marginal 0.2% decline after a rise of 1.8% in June.

U.S. July Retail Sales - Resilient entering Q3

August 15, 2025 12:51 PM UTC

July retail sales with a 0.5% increase are in line with expectations, with net upward revisions totaling 0.4%. Ex auto sales rose by 0.3% also with 0.4% in upward revisions while ex auto and gasoline sales rose by 0.2%, here with revisions of only 0.2%.  The data suggest consumer spending is holdin

Preview: Due August 15 - U.S. July Industrial Production - Utilities to lead a modest rise

August 14, 2025 1:51 PM UTC

We expect July industrial production to see a second straight 0.3% increase, though for manufacturing we expect only a marginal 0.1% increase, also matching June’s outcome, with utilities again supported by unusually hot weather.

Preview: Due August 15 - U.S. July Retail Sales - Trend losing momentum

August 14, 2025 1:31 PM UTC

We expect a 0.1% increase in July retail sales to follow two straight declines, with 0.1% decline ex autos and an unchanged outcome ex autos and gasoline. This would restore a slowing trend after June saw a correction from declines in April and May.

U.S. July PPI - Shocking rise after a string of subdued months

August 14, 2025 1:02 PM UTC

July PPI has risen a shocking 0.9% overall and ex food and energy, with a 0.6% increase ex food, energy and trade. The surprise was led by a 1.1% surge in services which had been showing an increasingly subdued trend into June, though goods were also firm at 0.7%, 0.4% ex food and energy. 

Russian Economy is Slowing: GDP Growth Continued to Lose Steam in Q2 2025

August 14, 2025 9:23 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) figures, Russia's GDP expanded by 1.1% YoY in Q2, the slowest pace of growth since the economy resumed expansion in Q2 2023, driven by military spending, investments, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. We think Central Bank of R

Deceleration in Inflation Resumes in Russia: 8.8% YoY in July

August 13, 2025 7:28 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data on August 13, inflation stood at 8.8% YoY in July after hitting 9.4% YoY in June, ignited by higher non-food and services prices. Despite inflation eased for a fourth straight month, we foresee inflation will continue to st

Preview: Due August 14 - U.S. July PPI - Pattern of weak monthly data but upward back month revisions

August 13, 2025 2:59 PM UTC

We expect July PPI to rise by a modest 0.1% overall and in each of the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This would follow unchanged outcomes in all three indices in June, but risk is that those indices will be revised higher, offsetting weakness in July. 

Preview: Due August 26 - U.S. July Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to return to normal, trend marginally positive

August 12, 2025 4:44 PM UTC

We expect July durable goods orders to fall by 4.5%, extending a 9.4% decline in June, but still not quite fully reversing a 16.5% surge in May. Aircraft will continue to lead the moves. Ex transport we expect a 0.1% increase, in line with a trend that is now marginally positive.

U.S. July CPI - Core rate, particularly services, a marginal disappointment

August 12, 2025 1:02 PM UTC

July’s CPI is in line with consensus at 0.2% overall, 0.3% ex food and energy, but the core rate of 0.322% before rounding is a little high for comfort. The detail shows the acceleration from June was more in services than goods, so the story is not a simple one of tariffs. 

U.S. July NFIB survey - Optimism pricks up, inflationary signals slip

August 12, 2025 11:48 AM UTC

July’s NFIB index of Small Business Optimism at 100.3 from 98.6 has reached its highest level since February, regaining momentum after a pause in June. Encouragingly, inflationary signals have slipped back after a bounce in June.

Preview: Due August 29 - Canada Q2/June GDP - Exports plunge to send GDP lower

August 11, 2025 7:54 PM UTC

We expect Q2 Canadian GDP to fall by 1.0% annualized after five straight gains marginally above 2.0%. This would be slightly stronger than a Bank of Canada forecast of -1.5% but weaker than what monthly GDP data is likely to imply for the quarter, with June seen rising by 0.1%.

Preview: Due August 12 - U.S. July CPI - Tariff impact slowly building

August 11, 2025 1:10 PM UTC

We expect July CPI to increase by 0.2% overall and by 0.3% ex food and energy, with the overall pace close to 0.2% even before rounding but the core rate rounded up from 0.26%. This would still be the strongest core rate since January and reflect a further feed through of tariffs, something that is

Canada July Employment - A weak month after a strong month

August 8, 2025 12:54 PM UTC

Canada’s surprisingly strong June employment report has been followed by a significant correction lower in July, with a fall of 40.8k to follow a rise of 83.1k, Full time work is negative over the two months, a 51.0k fall after a 13.5k increase, while part time work with a rise of 10.3k extended a

U.S. Initial Claims moving higher again. Few inflationary scares in Q2 Productivity and Costs report

August 7, 2025 12:59 PM UTC

Initial claims at 226k from 219k have now seen two straight gains after six straight losses. The 4-week average of 220.75k is the lowest since April 19 but looks unlikely to fall further. Q2 productivity and costs data does not do anything to add to inflation fears at the Fed.
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Preview: Due August 19 - Canada July CPI - Lower on gasoline but core rates to remain firm

August 5, 2025 5:59 PM UTC

We expect July Canadian CPI to fall to 1.6% yr/yr from 1.9%, taking the pace to the slowest since September 2024, though April’s abolition of the carbon tariff is still depressing yr/yr growth by around 0.6%. July’s dip will be largely on gasoline and we expect little change in the BoC’s core

Preview: Due August 15 - U.S. July Retail Sales - Trend losing momentum

August 5, 2025 3:55 PM UTC

We expect a 0.1% increase in July retail sales to follow two straight declines, with 0.1% decline ex autos and an unchanged outcome ex autos and gasoline. This would restore a slowing trend after June saw a correction from declines in April and May.

U.S. July ISM Services - Consistent with payroll weakness

August 5, 2025 2:17 PM UTC

July’s ISM services index of 50.1 is down from June’s 50.8 and while still above May’s 49.9 suggests minimal growth in activity, and gives support to the weak message of recent non-farm payroll data.

Preview: Due August 12 - U.S. July CPI - Tariff impact slowly building

August 4, 2025 12:47 PM UTC

We expect July CPI to increase by 0.2% overall and by 0.3% ex food and energy, with the overall pace close to 0.2% even before rounding but the core rate rounded up from 0.26%. This would still be the strongest core rate since January and reflect a further feed through of tariffs, something that is

U.S. July Employment - Revisions to May and June mean trend has slowed significantly

August 1, 2025 1:06 PM UTC

July’s non-farm payroll is weaker than expected not only with the 73k headline and 83k rise in the private sector, but also with large downward revisions totaling 258k for May and June. Unemployment remains low but edged up to 4.2% from 4.1% while average hourly earnings were on consensus at 0.3%,

Preview: Due August 1 - U.S. July ISM Manufacturing - Tariff risks to restrain composite and lift prices

July 31, 2025 1:57 PM UTC

We expect an unchanged ISM manufacturing index of 49.0 in July. Tariff concerns may prevent any extension of a modest June improvement, and could extend recent strength in prices paid, we expect to 71.0 from 69.7. Strength in June’s S and P manufacturing PMI, with July data due on July 24, will be

Preview: Due August 1 - U.S. July Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Slower overall, but stronger in the private sector

July 31, 2025 1:26 PM UTC

We expect a 125k increase in July’s non-farm payroll, slightly slower than in each month of Q2 but slightly stronger than in each month of Q1. We expect a 110k rise in private sector payrolls, up from 74k in June but slower than in April and May. An unchanged unemployment rate of 4.1% and a 0.3% r

German Data Review: Services Inflation Slows Further?

July 31, 2025 12:39 PM UTC

Germany’s disinflation process continues, with the lower-than-expected July preliminary HICP numbers reinforcing this pattern, with a 0.2 ppt drop to 1.8%, a 10-mth low (Figure 1)!  This occurred in spite of adverse energy base effects. Regardless, there was some reversal of June’s surprise and

U.S. Q2 GDP - Subdued underlying growth, but with persistent price pressures

July 30, 2025 1:12 PM UTC

The advance estimate of Q2 GDP at 3.0% is stronger than expected though an above consensus outcome had looked likely after yesterday’s decline in June’s trade deficit. Given extreme volatility in net exports the Q2 data should be seen alongside Q1’s 0.5% decline, giving an average of an unimpr

Turkiye Inflation will Slightly Soften in July: Tax Adjustments and Gas Price Hike in July Will Limit the Fall

July 30, 2025 8:35 AM UTC

Bottom line: After easing to 35.1% annually in June, we expect Turkiye’s consumer price index (CPI) will continue to soften moderately in July to 34.1%-34.3% as tax adjustments and energy price hikes in July will limit the downward trend. Despite tight monetary policy and moderately falling dema

Preview: Due July 30 - U.S. July ADP Employment - A correction from June's decline

July 29, 2025 4:27 PM UTC

We expect a rise of 70k in July’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth. This would be a significant correction from a 33k decline in June which was the first decline since March 2023, though still leaving a significant slowing in trend. June’s decline followed subdued gains of 29k i