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February 17, 2025 2:40 PM UTC
We expect Canadian CPI to slip to 1.7% yr/yr in January from 1.8% in December, the fall largely due to a temporary suspension of the Goods and Services Tax that will ran from Mid-December through Mid-February. Before slightly disappointing data, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that the t
February 17, 2025 9:33 AM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation ticked up to 9.9% YoY in January after hitting 9.5% in December, remaining well above the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) midterm target of 4%, due to surges in services and food prices, huge military spending,
February 14, 2025 4:33 PM UTC
We expect a 0.3% rise in January’s core PCE price index, slower than the 0.4% seen from core CPI, while we expect a modest 0.3% rise in personal income to outpace an unusual 0.1% decline in personal spending.
February 14, 2025 2:33 PM UTC
January industrial production is up a stronger than expected 0.5% more than fully due to a 7.2% surge in utilities that looks like a response to cold weather. Manufacturing fell by 0.1% despite a positive contribution from aircraft as Boeing recovered from a strike, with weather likely a negative he
February 14, 2025 1:57 PM UTC
January retail sales at -0.9% saw a significant downside surprise, though we believe the main reason for weakness was bad weather, with a correction from strength in Q4 also likely to be a factor. The core rates were also weak, ex auto at -0.4%, ex auto and gas at -0.5%, and the control group that c
February 13, 2025 2:43 PM UTC
We expect January industrial production to rise by 0.1% overall but with a 0.2% decline in manufacturing. Utilities are likely to be lifted by unusually cold weather which is likely to restrain production elsewhere.
February 13, 2025 2:33 PM UTC
We expect US retail sales to fall by 1.0% in January with declines of 0.2% both ex autos and ex autos and gasoline. The monthly weakness is likely to be largely due to bad weather with potential for a correction from Q4 strength adding to downside risk.
February 13, 2025 1:59 PM UTC
January PPI is slightly stronger than expected overall at 0.4%, but on consensus at 0.3% in both of the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. December revisions however mean that yr/yr rates are higher than expected, overall PPI at 3.5%, ex food and energy at 3.6% and ex food
February 12, 2025 2:22 PM UTC
We expect January PPI to pick up from a below trend December, rising by 0.3% overall and 0.4% in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade, as new year price hikes are introduced. However, a stronger rise in January 2024 will allow yr/yr rates to slip.
February 12, 2025 2:05 PM UTC
January CPI is a clear disappointment rising by 0.5% overall and 0.4% ex food and energy (0.446% before rounding). While there is a problem of residual seasonality bringing strength in Q1 data, that yr/yr rates accelerated, overall to 3.0% from 2.9%, and ex food and energy to 3.3% from 3.2%, will be
February 12, 2025 12:33 AM UTC
Brazil’s CPI rose 0.16% in January, lowering Y/Y inflation to 4.5% from 4.8%. A temporary electricity discount drove the decline, while Food (+1%) and Transport (+1.3%) showed worrying increases. Core inflation rose 0.7%, with Services CPI jumping to 5.4%, partly due to seasonal healthcare costs.
February 11, 2025 7:37 PM UTC
We expect January durable orders to increase by 3.5% overall with a 0.4% increase ex transport. The rise is likely to be led by civil aircraft in a rebound from a weak December, though we expect orders ex transport to sustain a recent improvement in trend.
February 11, 2025 1:19 PM UTC
We expect January’s CPI to increase by 0.3% both overall and ex food and energy, with the overall figure close to 0.3% even before rounding, but the core rate rising by 0.33%, which would be the strongest monthly gain since the three months of Q1 2024 each showed monthly core rates of 0.4% (each a
February 10, 2025 7:14 PM UTC
Mexico’s CPI rose 0.3% in January, below its 0.6% historical average but in line with expectations. Y/Y inflation fell to 3.6%, the lowest since Jan/2021. Core CPI rose 0.4%, with core goods up 0.7% and services up 0.2%. Non-core CPI fell 0.13%, led by a 1.5% drop in agricultural goods. The econom
February 10, 2025 4:11 PM UTC
We expect a January new home sales level of 630k, which would be a steep 9.7% decline if December’s 3.6% increase to 698k is unrevised, though we would see any January weakness as likely to be temporary and due to bad weather. October, hit by hurricanes, saw an even steeper 15.3% fall.
February 10, 2025 3:16 PM UTC
We expect February’s S and P PMIs to show a further rise in manufacturing, to a 12-month high of 52.0 from 51.2, and a correction higher in services to 54.5 from a 9-month low of 52.9.
February 10, 2025 1:44 PM UTC
We expect January existing home sales to fall by a modest 0.9% to 4.20m after three straight significantly stronger gains. Looking ahead, we note that February saw sharp gains in both 2023 and 2024.
February 7, 2025 7:48 PM UTC
We expect January housing starts to fall by 8.6% to 1.37m in a correction from a 15.8% December rise, with bad weather in January adding to downside risk. We however expect permits to be almost unchanged, -0.1% to 1480k after a modest 0.7% decline in December.
February 7, 2025 7:22 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Russian State Statistics Service (Rosstat) on February 7, Russia's GDP expanded by 4.1% YoY in 2024 driven by strong military spending, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. We envisage growth to hit 1.6% in 2025, which is significantly less than
February 7, 2025 4:49 PM UTC
We expect January industrial production to rise by 0.1% overall but with a 0.2% decline in manufacturing. Utilities are likely to be lifted by unusually cold weather which is likely to restrain production elsewhere.
February 7, 2025 3:21 PM UTC
February’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 68.7 from 71.1 is weaker than expected and the lowest since July, with the dip appearing to come from a sharp rise in 1-year inflation expectations, to 4.3% from 3.3%, which is the highest since November 2023.
February 7, 2025 2:40 PM UTC
Canada has delivered a strong employment report in January, with a 76k increase allowing unemployment to slip to 6.6% from 6.7%, though wages slipped to 3.7% yr/yr from 3.8%. This backs a Bank of Canada view expressed at January’s meeting that growth is responding to rate cuts without lifting infl
February 7, 2025 2:09 PM UTC
January’s non-farm payroll with a 143k increase is on the low side of expectations, though we suspect January data was restrained by bad weather. A dip in the workweek is also probably weather-induced and may be behind an above trend 0.5% rise in earnings per hour. Unemployment slipped to 4.0% fro
February 6, 2025 2:47 PM UTC
We expect a below trend 125k increase in January’s non-farm payroll, with a 95k rise in the private sector. The data is likely to be restrained by bad weather and a possible correction from an above trend December. The workweek is likely to fall on bad weather but we expect unemployment to be unch
February 6, 2025 1:53 PM UTC
Initial claims at 219k have corrected higher from last week’s 208k which was the lowest since February 2024 but remain consistent with a healthy labor market. Continued claims with a 36k rise to 1.886k have also corrected higher following a preceding 50k decline.
February 5, 2025 3:15 PM UTC
January’s ISM services index at 52.8 from 54.0 is weaker than market expectations though consistent with the S and P services PMI released earlier. It is possible bad weather, with very cold weather in much of the country probably more significant than the localized Los Angeles fires, restrained t
February 5, 2025 1:31 PM UTC
ADP’s January estimate for private sector employment growth of 183k is on the firm side of expectations and in line with trend given positive recent back month revisions. We still see risk of a below trend non-farm payroll in January due to bad weather, which ADP data tends to be less sensitive to
February 4, 2025 6:29 PM UTC
The BCB raised rates by 100bps to 13.25%, signaling another hike in March. External uncertainty remains, but domestic risks worsened, with inflation expectations rising. The BCB stressed fiscal-monetary coordination and warned about policy distortions. Despite markets pricing a 15% rate, we expect s
February 4, 2025 5:20 PM UTC
We expect Canadian CPI to slip to 1.7% yr/yr in January from 1.8% in December, the fall largely due to a temporary suspension of the Goods and Services Tax that will ran from Mid-December through Mid-February. Before slightly disappointing data, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that the t
February 4, 2025 2:42 PM UTC
We expect US retail sales to fall by 1.0% in January with declines of 0.2% both ex autos and ex autos and gasoline. The monthly weakness is likely to be largely due to bad weather with potential for a correction from Q4 strength adding to downside risk.
February 4, 2025 1:39 PM UTC
We expect January’s ISM services index to slip to 52.5 from 54.0 in December, returning the index to November’s level. Unusually cold weather in much of the country and to a lesser extent the Los Angeles fires provide downside risk.
February 4, 2025 1:19 PM UTC
We expect a December trade deficit of $98.0bn, up from $78.2bn in November and only modestly below a record $101.9bn seen in March 2022. We expect exports to fall by 2.8% and imports to rise by 3.5%.
February 4, 2025 1:04 PM UTC
We expect a 145k increase in January’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, which is significantly above our 95k increase for January’s private sector non-farm payroll, which is likely to be more sensitive to bad weather than the ADP report. We expect overall non-farm payrolls, inc
February 3, 2025 3:18 PM UTC
January’s ISM manufacturing index at 50.9 from 49.2 has moved above neutral for the first time since late 2022, giving a positive picture of manufacturing ahead of the commencing trade war. The trade war is likely to be negative for manufacturing as supply chains are damaged.
February 3, 2025 8:19 AM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on February 3 that consumer price index (CPI) softened to 42.1% y/y in January with education, health, and housing prices leading the rise in the index. We think lagged impacts of previous tightening, relative Turkish lira (TRY) stability,
January 31, 2025 6:34 PM UTC
Mexico’s GDP shrank by 0.6% in Q4 2024, bringing annual growth to 1.5%, well below previous years. The industrial sector led the decline, driven by uncertainty over Trump’s election and weaker investment, while agriculture also contracted sharply. Monetary tightening, lower U.S. demand, and poli
January 31, 2025 5:12 PM UTC
We expect January PPI to pick up from a below trend December, rising by 0.3% overall and 0.4% in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade, as new year price hikes are introduced. However, a stronger rise in January 2024 will allow yr/yr rates to slip.
January 31, 2025 3:28 PM UTC
We expect January’s CPI to increase by 0.3% both overall and ex food and energy, with the overall figure close to 0.3% even before rounding, but the core rate rising by 0.33%, which would be the strongest monthly gain since the three months of Q1 2024 each showed monthly core rates of 0.4% (each a
January 31, 2025 2:18 PM UTC
November Canadian GDP with a 0.2% decline was weaker than the -0.1% estimate made with October’s release, where the increase was unrevised at 0.3%, The preliminary estimate for December is for a rise of 0.2%, which if accurate would leave Q4 GDP near a 1.8% annualized estimate made by the Bank of
January 31, 2025 1:56 PM UTC
December’s personal income and spending data is largely old news with Q4 totals having been seen in the GDP report. Gains of 0.2% in core PCE prices and 0.4% in personal income are in line with expectations, but spending with a 0.7% increase with positive back month revisions reflects the strong c
January 31, 2025 1:28 PM UTC
As Germany faces possibly deeper and more prolonged political deadlock, its disinflation process continues, but there are signs that the downtrend is flattening out and this may be the message into the rest of 2025. Indeed, January HICP inflation stayed at 2.8% an outcome largely as expected. Bu
January 30, 2025 6:09 PM UTC
The Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) raised the policy rate by 100bps to 13.25%, signaling another hike in March while monitoring economic data. The statement had a neutral-to-dovish tone, with inflation risks stemming from services CPI, unanchored expectations, and fiscal policy. Market projections see
January 30, 2025 3:54 PM UTC
We expect a December trade deficit of $98.0bn, up from $78.2bn in November and only modestly below a record $101.9bn seen in March 2022. We expect exports to fall by 2.8% and imports to rise by 3.5%.
January 30, 2025 3:14 PM UTC
We expect Canadian GDP to see a 0.1% decline in November, in line with a preliminary estimate made with October’s 0.3% increase. That would suggest a trend of around 0.1% per month. A 0.1% increase in December would leave Q4 marginally below 2.0% annualized, up from 1.0% in Q3. The Bank of Canada
January 30, 2025 2:44 PM UTC
December’s personal income and spending report will be largely old news, with Q4 totals seen with the GDP report on January 30. Our pre-GDP forecasts for a 0.2% rise in core PCE prices and a 0.4% rise in personal income still look valid, though the GDP data is consistent with a 1.3% rise in person