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September 06, 2024
Preview: Due September 19 - U.S. August Existing Home Sales - Slippage to resume
September 6, 2024 6:26 PM UTC
We expect a 2.5% decline in August existing home sales outcome to 3.85m, resuming a negative trend after a 1.3% July rise corrected a steep 5.1% decline in June. August’s level would be the weakest since a matching low in October 2023.
Preview: Due September 18 - U.S. August Housing Starts and Permits - Starts to correct higher, permits to slip
September 6, 2024 5:33 PM UTC
We expect August housing starts to correct higher by 5.0% to 1300k after a 6.8% July decline that may have been exaggerated by bad weather. However we expect a 1.1% decline in permits to 1390k to extend a 3.3% decline seen in July.
Preview: Due September 17 - U.S. August Industrial Production - Autos to correct from weak July
September 6, 2024 4:42 PM UTC
We expect August industrial production to rise by 0.5% after a 0.6% June decline, while manufacturing increases by 0.4% after a 0.3% July decline. Autos are likely to lead the rise after leading the July decline.
Canada August Employment - Detail mostly weak
September 6, 2024 1:43 PM UTC
Canada’s August employment report with a 22.1k increase is in line with expectations on the headline and an improvement from two straight near flat moths, but weak in the detail. The employment gain came fully on a 65.7k rise in part time employment with full time work falling by 43.6k, while unem
U.S. August Employment - A little stronger than downwardly revised June and July
September 6, 2024 1:10 PM UTC
August’s non-farm payroll is a little weaker than expected with a 142k rise overall, 118k in the private sector, with significant negative back month revisions in the preceding two months totaling 86k. However the data is stronger than July’s, not only in the payroll, but also a correction lower
September 05, 2024
Preview: Due September 17 - Canada August CPI - Strong year ago data to see yr/yr growth fall further
September 5, 2024 6:45 PM UTC
We expect August Canadian CPI to slip to 2.1% yr/yr from 2.5% as year ago strength drops out, reaching its lowest level since February 2021. While progress on the Bank of Canada’s core rates will be a little less sharp, we expect the rates to continue moving lower.
Preview: Due September 17 - U.S. August Retail Sales - Autos to slip, ex autos to pause after a strong July
September 5, 2024 3:32 PM UTC
We expect a 0.5% decline in August retail sales due to a dip in autos, though we expect sales to be unhanged both ex autos and ex autos and gasoline after two straight above trend months.
U.S. August ISM Services - Still showing modest expansion
September 5, 2024 2:13 PM UTC
August’s ISM services index at 51.5 is almost unchanged from July’s 51.4 and implies an economy continuing to expand at a modest pace. Employment at 50.2 is down from July’s 51.1, but in being above the neutral 50 remains stronger than the readings seen from February through June.
U.S. August ADP Employment - Losing momentum, but initial claims suggest a healthy labor market
September 5, 2024 12:46 PM UTC
ADP’s August estimate for private sector employment growth of 99k is below expectations and consistent with a continued slowing of the labor market, with the gain being the slowest since January 2021. While the data suggests some downside risk to non-farm payrolls, our private sector payrolls call
September 04, 2024
U.S. July JOLTS report on Job Openings - Gradual slowing in trend continues
September 4, 2024 2:27 PM UTC
July’s JOLTS report is weaker than expected with job openings down by 237k to 7.673m, the lowest level since January 2021, though the monthly decline is not exceptional and the trend continues to be gradually slowing at a similar pace to recent months.
Preview: Due September 5 - U.S. August ISM Services - Unlikely to match strong S&P Services PMI
September 4, 2024 1:18 PM UTC
We expect August’s ISM services index to slip marginally to 51.0 from 51.4. This would be consistent with a gentle underlying slowing in trend that has been visible over the last two years, albeit with plenty of volatility around the gentle slowing in trend.
Preview: Due September 5 - U.S. July ADP Employment - Momentum slowing but not sharply
September 4, 2024 1:07 PM UTC
We expect a 130k increase in August’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, slightly below the 135k we expect for private sector non-farm payrolls. The two series have become more consistent with each other in recent months. We expect overall non-farm payrolls to rise by 160k. Trend
U.S. July trade deficit increases on lower auto exports, Canada moves into surplus on lower auto imports
September 4, 2024 12:55 PM UTC
July’s US trade deficit of $78.8bn is up from $73.0bn in June and the widest since June 2022, restoring a deteriorating trend after a correction lower in the deficit in June, though July’s deficit is not quite as wide as expected. July’s deficit was inflated by a weak month from auto exports,
September 03, 2024
Brazil: GDP Surprises in Q2, Growing 1.4% (q/q)
September 3, 2024 3:07 PM UTC
Brazil's Q2 GDP grew 1.4% (q/q), surpassing expectations, driven by strong industrial growth and robust internal demand. Investment increased by 2.1%, while external demand lagged due to rising imports. Agriculture declined due to floods, but services grew steadily. With internal demand as the key g
U.S. August ISM Manufacturing - Still weak, if a little less so
September 3, 2024 2:26 PM UTC
August’s ISM manufacturing index at 47.2 is up from July’s 46.8 but still quite weak, with the first two months of Q3 weaker than each of the six months in the first half of the year. New orders at 44.6 from 47.4 are the weakest since May 2023.
Preview: Due September 4 - U.S. July Trade Balance - Deficit to resume deteriorating trend
September 3, 2024 12:26 PM UTC
We expect July’s trade deficit to increase to $79.2bn from June’s $73.1bn, resuming a deteriorating trend after a modest improvement seen in June with the deficit reaching its highest level since June 2022.
September 02, 2024
Turkiye's GDP Growth Decelerates in Q2 with 2.5% YoY
September 2, 2024 7:39 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on September 2 that Turkish economy expanded by 2.5% YoY in Q2, after growing by a strong 5.7% in Q1 driven by the buoyant demand and government spending. As we expected, the pace of the GDP growth decelerated in Q2 while we envisage the de
August 30, 2024
Brazil GDP Preview: 1% Growth in Q2 is Good News
August 30, 2024 2:19 PM UTC
Brazil's Q2 2024 GDP is expected to grow 1.0%, driven by strong domestic demand and recovery in Services, Construction, and Mining. Despite analysts predicting a slowdown, fiscal stimuli and election-related spending have fueled growth. However, concerns remain whether this growth is sustainable or
Canada Q2 GDP lifted by government, but little momentum in monthly data
August 30, 2024 1:38 PM UTC
Canada’s Q2 GDP increase of 2.1% annualized is on the high side of expectations and above a 1.5% Bank of Canada estimate made with July’s monetary policy report. However with a flat June and the preliminary estimate for July also unchanged there does not appear to be much momentum entering Q3,
Strong Military Spending and Investment Growth Help Russian Economy Expand by 3.4% YoY in July
August 30, 2024 12:13 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to the preliminary figures announced by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP grew by 3.4% YoY in June after expanding by 3% YoY in June driven by military production and investments. We foresee Russian economy will expand by 2.5% in 2024 despite aggress
August 29, 2024
Preview: Due September 4 - U.S. July Trade Balance - Deficit to resume deteriorating trend
August 29, 2024 3:32 PM UTC
We expect July’s trade deficit to increase to $79.2bn from June’s $73.1bn, resuming a deteriorating trend after a modest improvement seen in June with the deficit reaching its highest level since June 2022.
U.S. July Pending Home Sales see renewed weakness
August 29, 2024 2:11 PM UTC
July pending home sales with a 5.5% decline have unexpectedly more than fully reversed a 4.8% June increase which suggests further near term weakness in in store for existing home sales, even if Fed easing in September is likely to support the market.
Preview: Due August 30 - Canada Q2/June GDP - A second straight quarter of moderate growth
August 29, 2024 1:46 PM UTC
We expect Q2 Canadian GDP to rise by 2.0% annualized, a little above a 1.5% estimate made with the Bank of Canada’s July Monetary Policy Report and s second straight quarter of moderate growth after a near flat second half of 2023. We expect a 0.1% increase in June GDP, in line with a preliminary
U.S. Q2 GDP revised even higher on consumer spending, July trade deficit widens but initial claims stabilizing
August 29, 2024 1:11 PM UTC
Q2 has seen a marginal upward revision to 3.0% from an already strong 2.8% with the revision due to consumer spending, now at 2.9% from 2.3% and maintaining a picture of surprising resilience. Core PCE prices were revised slightly lower to 2.8% from 2.9%. While Q2 GDP is strong a wider advance July
August 28, 2024
Preview: Due September 5 - U.S. August ISM Services - Unlikely to match strong S&P Services PMI
August 28, 2024 3:00 PM UTC
We expect August’s ISM services index to slip marginally to 51.0 from 51.4. This would be consistent with a gentle underlying slowing in trend that has been visible over the last two years, albeit with plenty of volatility around the gentle slowing in trend.
Brazil: The Case for a Hike?
August 28, 2024 1:42 PM UTC
Despite the market's push for a rate hike by the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB), we believe the current policy rate of 10.5% is sufficiently restrictive to ensure inflation converges. However, de-anchored inflation expectations, fiscal concerns, strong economic activity, and a new BCB president desiri
Preview: Due August 29 - U.S. July Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to rebound after June dip
August 28, 2024 12:38 PM UTC
We expect July’s advance goods trade deficit to increase to $98.7bn from June’s 96.6bn, leaving it slightly below the May deficit of $99.1bn which was the highest since May 2022.
August 27, 2024
Preview: Due September 5 - U.S. July ADP Employment - Momentum slowing but not sharply
August 27, 2024 4:37 PM UTC
We expect a 130k increase in August’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, slightly below the 135k we expect for private sector non-farm payrolls. The two series have become more consistent with each other in recent months. We expect overall non-farm payrolls to rise by 160k. Trend
U.S. August Consumer Confidence - Firmer but labor market and inflation views lower
August 27, 2024 2:34 PM UTC
August consumer confidence is stronger in the headline at 103.3 from 101.9, reaching its highest level since February, though the detail shows a further deterioration in the labor market and a dip in inflation expectations.
August 26, 2024
U.S. July Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft surge inflated by seasonal adjustments, underlying picture subdued
August 26, 2024 12:49 PM UTC
July durable goods orders surged by 9.9% but this was fully due to a surge in aircraft which appears to be exaggerated by seasonal adjustments. Ex-transport orders maintained a fairly flat picture, with a dip of 0.2%, weaker than expected net of a downward revision to June to a 0.1% increase from 0.
August 23, 2024
Preview: Due August 26 - U.S. July Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to rebound, modest slippage seen elsewhere
August 23, 2024 1:30 PM UTC
We expect July durable orders to increase by a sharp 9.0% to more than fully erase a 6.7% fall in June with the swings largely coming from aircraft. Ex transport we expect a 0.2% decline to follow a 0.4% June increase.
August 22, 2024
Preview: Due August 23 - U.S. July New Home Sales - Extending recent slippage
August 22, 2024 2:55 PM UTC
We expect a modest 1.9% decline in July new home sales to 605k, which would be the weakest level since October 2022, assuming no revision to June’s 617k outcome. June also saw a modest decline of 0.6%, extending a sharp 14.9% fall in May that corrected two straight gains each exceeding 6.0%.
Rupiah Gains Ground: BI Stays Cautious on Rate Cuts
August 22, 2024 11:26 AM UTC
Bank Indonesia held its key interest rate at 6.25% to stabilise the rupiah and attract FX inflows, while maintaining interventions in the FX and bond markets. Inflation remains within target, and GDP growth forecasts are steady. Future rate cuts depend on US Federal Reserve actions. A 25bps cut is e
August 21, 2024
August 19, 2024
Brazil: Activity Surprises Again in Q2
August 19, 2024 1:24 PM UTC
The Brazilian economy outperformed expectations in Q2, with a 1.1% growth (according to monthly data) driven by industrial production and strong household demand. This strength likely stems from the fiscal push in late 2023, though a slight deceleration is anticipated in the second half of 2024. Wit
August 15, 2024
Preview: Due August 29 - U.S. July Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to rebound after June dip
August 15, 2024 5:37 PM UTC
We expect July’s advance goods trade deficit to increase to $98.7bn from June’s 96.6bn, leaving it slightly below the May deficit of $99.1bn which was the highest since May 2022.