U.S. March ISM Services - Slowing consistent with regional surveys

03 April 2025 - 14:24

March’s ISM services index of 50.8, down from 53.5, is the weakest since June 2024, and contrasting a healthy S and P services PMI of 54.4. The weakness of the ISM data is however consistent with weak messages from most regional Fed surveys of the service sector.

U.S. February Trade Deficit remains very high, Initial Claims still low

03 April 2025 - 13:13

Initial claims remain low at 219k, in fact surprisingly so at 219k from 225k, though continued claims at 1.903m from 1.847m are the highest since November 2021, and that could be a warning of a labor market slowing, though the 4-week average is creeping up only slowly.

Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. March ISM Services - Regional surveys suggest weakness

02 April 2025 - 13:40

We expect March’s ISM services index to slip to a 7-month low of 52.0 from 53.5, contrasting a stronger S and P Services PMI.  

Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. February Trade Balance - Deficit down from January record but still very large

02 April 2025 - 13:19

We expect a February trade deficit of $125.0bn, down from January’s record $131.4bn, but still above December’s $98.1bn, and the previous record deficit of $101.9bn seen in March 2022. 

U.S. February Job Openings, March ISM Manufacturing - Worrying detail, though not yet a clear trend

01 April 2025 - 14:33

February’s JOLTS report on labor turnover does not make positive reading, with falls in openings and quits but a rise in layoffs, though the volatility of the series calls for caution. March ISM manufacturing data is weaker, at 49.0 from 50.3, but prices but with prices paid up sharply to 69.4 fro

Preview: Due April 2 - U.S. March ADP Employment - February weakness may prove erratic

01 April 2025 - 13:40

We expect a 125k increase in March’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, stronger than February’s weak 77k that significantly underperformed the non-farm payroll, but still below the pre-February trend. Initial claims suggest the labor market remains healthy.

Preview: Due April 11 - U.S. March PPI - Ex food and energy to bounce from a weak February

31 March 2025 - 16:50

We expect March PPI to increase by a moderate 0.2% overall, restrained by dips in food and energy, but we expect a 0.4% bounce ex food and energy after a 0.1% dip in February. Ex food, energy and trade, we expect a rise of 0.3%.

Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. March ISM Manufacturing - To slip back below neutral

31 March 2025 - 15:18

We expect a March 1SM manufacturing index of 49.0, slipping back below neutral for the first time in three months, after positive readings of 50.3 in February and 50.9 in January.

U.S. March Final Michigan CSI - Even more pessimistic

28 March 2025 - 14:16

March’s final Michigan CSI does not appear to have got any support from a slightly improved equities picture, with the overall index revised down to 57.0 from 57.9, and inflation expectations even higher, the 1-year view at 5.0% from 4.9% and the 5-10 year view at 4.1% from 3.9%.

Canada January GDP - Looking healthy ahead of the trade war

28 March 2025 - 13:19

January Canadian GDP with a 0.4% increase was even stronger than the preliminary 0.3% estimate made with December’s report. Canada’s economy was clearly gaining momentum ahead of the emerging trade war. The preliminary estimate for February is unchanged. Negatives may follow as the trade war esc

Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. February Trade Balance - Deficit down from January record but still very large

27 March 2025 - 17:46

We expect a February trade deficit of $125.0bn, down from January’s record $131.4bn, but still above December’s $98.1bn, and the previous record deficit of $101.9bn seen in March 2022. 

Preview: Due March 28 - Canada January GDP - Rise expected before tariffs start to bite

27 March 2025 - 14:52

We expect Canadian GDP to see a 0.3% increase in January, consistent with a preliminary estimate made with December’s report, though as tariff concern build preliminary indications for February are likely to be flat at best. 

Preview: Due March 28 - U.S. February Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform Core CPI

27 March 2025 - 14:42

We expect a 0.3% rise in February’s core PCE price index, ahead of a 0.2% core CPI to partially offset a January underperformance when core PCE prices rose by 0.3% while core CPI surged by 0.5%. We also expect a subdued 0.1% rise in personal income to follow a strong 0.9% increase in January but p

U.S. February Pending Home Sales - Correction from record low

27 March 2025 - 14:10

Pending home sales with a 2.0% February increase have corrected a 4.6% January decline that took the series to a record low, falling below even the April 2020 outcome seen at the height of the pandemic. 

U.S. February Durable Goods Orders - Strong month may be difficult to sustain

26 March 2025 - 13:06

February durable goods orders are stronger than expected with a 0.9% rise overall and a 0.7% rise ex transport. This may be a response to strength in January ISM manufacturing orders, but slower ISM data for February suggests the February durable goods orders gain may be difficult to sustain.

Preview: Due March 27 - U.S. February Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to correct lower, but remain wide

26 March 2025 - 11:50

We expect a February advance goods deficit of $131.1bn, down from January’s dramatic import-led surge to $155.6bn, but still above December’s $122.1bn, which itself was a record high until January’s data was released. 

Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. March ISM Manufacturing - To slip back below neutral

25 March 2025 - 15:58

We expect a March 1SM manufacturing index of 49.0, slipping back below neutral for the first time in three months, after positive readings of 50.3 in February and 50.9 in January.

Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. March ISM Services - Regional surveys suggest weakness

25 March 2025 - 15:17

We expect March’s ISM services index to slip to a 7-month low of 52.0 from 53.5, contrasting a stronger S and P Services PMI.  

U.S. March Consumer Confidence - Future expectations weakest since 2013

25 March 2025 - 14:27

March consumer confidence at 92.9 from 100.1 has seen a fourth straight decline and is weaker than expected. The fall has been led by future expectations, which are at their lowest since March 2013. A 1.8% increase in February new home sales to 676k is in line with expectations.

Preview: Due March 26 - U.S. February Durable Goods Orders - Ex transport to rise but may be difficult to sustain

25 March 2025 - 12:10

We expect February durable goods orders to be unchanged overall but with an above trend 0.5% increase ex transport. The manufacturing picture has recently been showing signs of improvement but that will be difficult to sustain if a trade war escalates.

U.S. March S&P PMIs - Manufacturing slips below neutral but Services rebound

24 March 2025 - 14:00

March’s preliminary S and P PMIs are mixed, with manufacturing slipping back below neutral to 49.8 from 52.7, a sign that tariff concerns are having a negative impact, but services, less sensitive to tariffs, improved at 54.3 from 51.6.
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Preview: Due March 25 - U.S. February New Home Sales - Trend has no clear direction

24 March 2025 - 12:09

We expect a February new home sales level of 680k, which would be a 3.5% increase if January’s 10.5% decline to 657k is unrevised. While January’s decline was probably in part due to bad weather a full reversal is unlikely, with December’s 734k level significantly above trend.

Preview: Due March 24 - U.S. March S&P PMIs - Manufacturing correct lower, Services to correct higher

21 March 2025 - 13:28

We expect March’s S and P PMIs to show manufacturing slipping to 51.5 from February’s 52.7, which was the highest since June 2022, but services picking up to 53.0 from 51.0 in February, which was the weakest since November 2023.

Canada January Retail Sales - Slipping from strong December

21 March 2025 - 12:43

Canada’s January retail sales with a 0.6% decline are slightly weaker than an advance estimate of -0.4% but need to be seen alongside a strong 2.6% increase in December. The advance estimate for February is for another decline, by 0.4%. Tariff concerns may be starting to weigh on Canadian consumer

U.S. February Existing Home Sales - Unexpected bounce may be in part seasonal

20 March 2025 - 14:17

February existing home sales have seen a very unexpected 4.2% rise to 4.26m, contrasting the evidence of some surveys, though the decline does not quite fully erase a 4.7% fall in January.

U.S. Initial Claims still low, March Philly Fed slower but still positive

20 March 2025 - 13:04

Initial claims at 223k from 221k remain low in the survey week for March’s non-farm payroll but continued claims for the preceding week are higher at 1.892m from 1.859m. March’s Philly Fed index of 12.5 from 18.1 is slower, but still expansionary, contrasting Monday’s very weak Empire State in

Preview: Due March 20 - U.S. February Existing Home Sales - Pending home sales suggest slippage

19 March 2025 - 12:49

We expect February existing home sales to fall by 3.2% to 3.95m, which would be the lowest since September. Survey evidence, particularly pending home sales, suggest a weak number but it is notable that February in both 2023 and 2024 saw strong gains.

Preview: Due March 20 - U.S. Q4 Current Account - Another record deficit

19 March 2025 - 12:34

We expect a Q4 US current account deficit of $325.0bn, or 4.4% of GDP, up from the record $310.9bn in Q3 when the deficit was 4.2% of GDP. This will be a fresh record deficit in nominal terms and the highest as a proportion of GDP since Q1 2022.

Preview: Due March 24 - U.S. March S&P PMIs - Manufacturing correct lower, Services to correct higher

18 March 2025 - 17:05

We expect March’s S and P PMIs to show manufacturing slipping to 51.5 from February’s 52.7, which was the highest since June 2022, but services picking up to 53.0 from 51.0 in February, which was the weakest since November 2023.

Preview: Due March 27 - U.S. February Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to correct lower, but remain wide

18 March 2025 - 16:08

We expect a February advance goods deficit of $131.1bn, down from January’s dramatic import-led surge to $155.6bn, but still above December’s $122.1bn, which itself was a record high until January’s data was released. 

Preview: Due March 26 - U.S. February Durable Goods Orders - Ex transport to rise but may be difficult to sustain

18 March 2025 - 15:17

We expect February durable goods orders to be unchanged overall but with an above trend 0.5% increase ex transport. The manufacturing picture has recently been showing signs of improvement but that will be difficult to sustain if a trade war escalates.

Preview: Due March 25 - U.S. February New Home Sales - Trend has no clear direction

18 March 2025 - 14:42

We expect a February new home sales level of 680k, which would be a 3.5% increase if January’s 10.5% decline to 657k is unrevised. While January’s decline was probably in part due to bad weather a full reversal is unlikely, with December’s 734k level significantly above trend.