Preview: Due September 16 - Canada August CPI - Higher as year ago weakness drops out
Weakness a year ago is likely to see August Canadian CPI picking up on a yr/yr basis, we expect to 2.0% from 1.7%. The Bank of Canada’s core rates are likely to remain fairly stable, and above the 2.0% target.
On the month the data is likely to look soft before seasonal adjustment, with a 0.1% rise overall with the ex food and energy rate unchanged. However seasonally adjusted we expect stronger gains, overall CPI at 0.3% and ex food and energy at 0.2%.
This would contrast July data when the seasonally adjusted data at 0.1% both overall and ex food and energy was softer than unadjusted gains of 0.3% in each series. In August we see the ex food and energy pace at 2.6% yr/yr, up from 2.5% in July.
The ex food and energy rate is not one of the BoC’s core rates. Little change here is likely, but risk leans to the upside given year ago weakness. We expect CPI-Common to rise to 2.7% yr/yr from 2.6%, while CPI-Median and CPI-Trim are unchanged from July at 3.1% and 3.0% respectively.
