Preview: Due September 23 - U.S. August Existing Home Sales - Slightly weaker for sales and prices
We expect August existing home sales to slip by 2.5% to 3.91m to resume a modestly negative trend after a 2.0% increase in July. This would take the level to its lowest since September 2024.
There are a few hints that housing markets are finding a base with markets in August having been looking towards Fed easing, but data is mostly subdued. Pending home sales, designed to predict existing home sales, slipped in July, while remaining above January’s record low.
We expect slippage in all four regions and a 2.0% monthly fall in the median price. The price data is not seasonally adjusted and the monthly drop will be in part seasonal, but this would see yr/yr data slipping to zero, its weakest since June 2023, from a marginal 0.2% rise in July. Yr/yr sales at -0.5% after a 0.8% rise in July will also be close to zero.
