Published: 2025-09-15T14:34:53.000Z
Preview: Due September 26 - Canada July GDP - First rise in three months
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We expect July Canadian GDP to rise by 0.2%, following three straight declines of 0.1%. A 0.2% rise would be slightly stronger than a preliminary estimate of 0.1% made with June’s report.
The rise will come largely from a 0.6% increase in goods, more than fully reversing a 0.5% June decline. Manufacturing will lead after positive July shipments data though modest gains are also likely in construction, mining and utilities.
We expect a 0.1% increase in services, matching June’s gain despite a likely correction in retail from a stronger June. Support is likely to come from wholesale and real estate, rental and leasing. Yr/yr GDP is however likely to slip, to 0.8% from 0.9%. This would be the slowest since February 2021.
