Preview: Due September 24 - U.S. August New Home Sales - Stable trend, downside risk
We expect an August new home sales level of 625k, which would be a 4.1% decline if July’s 0.6% decline to 652k is unrevised. The level would be the lowest since October 2023. Trend has been fairly stable but the NAHB survey suggests there may be some near term downside risk.
New home sales have shown surprising resilience since the NAHB homebuilder’s index saw a sharp dip in May. This resilience may be difficult to sustain in August but once Fed easing is seen the housing market is likely to find some support.
We expect prices to be unchanged on the month, in a pause after monthly declines in both the median and average in June and July. Yr/yr data would then look less negative for the median, at -0.5% from -5.9%, while the average would turn positive at 2.5% from -5.0% yr/yr in July.
