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Published: 2025-09-08T15:25:53.000Z

Expecting a Negative Non-Farm Payroll Benchmark Revision

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Tuesday sees the release of the preliminary Labor Dep’t estimate for the March 2025 non-farm payroll benchmark, with expectations for a significant negative, possibly as large as the -818k preliminary estimate for the March 2024 benchmark delivered a year ago. The eventual revision to March 2024 payrolls delivered with the January 2025 non-farm payroll was not as large, but still significant at -589k.

The direction of the benchmark revision tends to reflect the state of the economy at the time. The March 2009 benchmark, during the Great Recession, was revised down by 902k. The 2024 revision was surprisingly large given that the economy was growing steadily at the time. March 2023 saw a more moderate revision of -266k while March 2022 saw a strong upward revision of 568k as the economy rebounded from the pandemic.

One warning sign that the March 2025 revision will be large is the Quarterly Business Employment Dynamics survey which measures private sector job gains and losses both from existing establishments, as well as firm births and deaths, which the non-farm payroll estimates rather than measures. This data is available only through Q4 2024 but its net employment calculations sharply underperform the non-farm payroll by over a million, with the biggest discrepancy coming in Q2 2024. The Business Embayment Dynamics survey suggests private sector payrolls actually fell in Q2 and (marginally) Q3 of 2024. We doubt the benchmark revision to payrolls will be as sharp as this given solid GDP growth in those quarters, but a significant negative revision, in line with that seen last year, looks likely.


4Cast Ltd. and all of its affiliates (Continuum Economics) do not conduct “investment research” as defined in the FCA Conduct of Business Sourcebook (COBS) section 12 nor do they provide “advice about securities” as defined in the Regulation of Investment Advisors by the U.S. SEC. Continuum Economics is not regulated by the SEC or by the FCA or by any other regulatory body. This research report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Nonetheless, Continuum Economics has an internal policy that prohibits “front-running” and that is designed to minimize the risk of receiving or misusing confidential or potentially material non-public information. The views and conclusions expressed here may be changed without notice. Continuum Economics, its partners and employees make no representation about the completeness or accuracy of the data, calculations, information or opinions contained in this report. This report may not be copied, redistributed or reproduced in part or whole without Continuum Economics’s express permission. Information contained in this report or relied upon in its construction may previously have been disclosed under a consulting agreement with one or more clients. The prices of securities referred to in the report may rise or fall and past performance and forecasts should not be treated as a reliable indicator of future performance or results. This report is not directed to you if Continuum Economics is barred from doing so in your jurisdiction. Nor is it an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities or to enter into any investment transaction or use any investment service.
Analyst Declaration
I,Dave Sloan, the Senior Economist declare that the views expressed herein are mine and are clear, fair and not misleading at the time of publication. They have not been influenced by any relationship, either a personal relationship of mine or a relationship of the firm, to any entity described or referred to herein nor to any client of Continuum Economics nor has any inducement been received in relation to those views. I further declare that in the preparation and publication of this report I have at all times followed all relevant Continuum Economics compliance protocols including those reasonably seeking to prevent the receipt or misuse of material non-public information.
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