Preview: Due September 4 - U.S. July Trade Balance - Deficit to rise as imports from China rebound
We expect a July goods trade deficit of $79.2bn, up from $60.2bn in June. The deficit will compare to a Q2 average of $64.0bn but remain well below Q1’s pre-tariff average of $130.2bn. It will be similar to where trend was before the November election result signaled higher tariffs were coming.
We expect exports to fall by 0.1% after a 0.5% June decline but imports to rebound by 5.6% after a fall of 3.7% in June.
We expect goods data to be consistent with the advance report which showed a 0.1% decline in exports but a 7.1% bounce in imports. The imports gain was led by industrial supplies. We expect data by country to show the imports rise being led by China, following a reduction in tariffs from extreme levels.
We expect the services surplus to be unchanged at $25.7bn with both exports and imports also unchanged, both following two straight modest declines.