Switzerland
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June 26, 2024
June 25, 2024
Outlook Overview: Cyclical and Structural Forces
June 25, 2024 10:15 AM UTC
• The global economy is showing signs of healing, as inflation comes back towards targets and growth recovers momentum in some economies. Nevertheless, the cyclical headwind of lagged monetary tightening remains in DM countries, and will likely be one of the forces slowing the U.S. economy
June 24, 2024
Western Europe Outlook: Easing Cycles Diverge?
June 24, 2024 7:48 AM UTC
· · In the UK, while downside economic risks may have dissipated, the real economy backdrop and outlook is still no better than mixed. This should accentuate a disinflation process hitherto driven mainly by friendlier supply conditions. The BoE will likely ease in Q3 and
DM FX Outlook: Politics rears its head
June 24, 2024 7:42 AM UTC
· Bottom Line: The USD strength in Q2 on the back of a less dovish view of the Fed is unlikely to extend over the rest of the year. The JPY remains exceptionally cheap and has potential to recover sharply if risk appetite weakens. A slower JPY recovery is likely if lower inflation leads
June 20, 2024
SNB: 25bps Cut and Next Cut in September
June 20, 2024 8:34 AM UTC
The SNB cut by 25bps to try and stop inflation undershooting. We look for a further 25bps cut in September, as the new inflation forecasts remains too far below target for SNB comfort. CHF strength will also not ebb quickly given the prospect of prolonged French political uncertainty.
June 12, 2024
SNB Preview (Jun 20): Another Cut Likely but How Large an Inflation Target Undershoot
June 12, 2024 9:26 AM UTC
Along with market thinking, we see the SNB on June 20 repeating the 25 bp policy rate cut that it surprised many with three months ago. This would take the policy rate to 1.25% and where the very clear below-target inflation picture in both recent actual numbers and the outlook flagged by the SNB
April 03, 2024
March 27, 2024
March 25, 2024
March 22, 2024
Western Europe Outlook: Easing Cycle Underway?
March 22, 2024 11:26 AM UTC
· In the UK, downside economic risks may have dissipated but the tighter monetary stance has far from fully bitten. This accentuates and/or prolongs an already weak domestic backdrop into 2025 that will complement friendlier supply conditions in easing inflation. The BoE will likely e
March 21, 2024
Switzerland: SNB Surprise with 25bps Rate Cut
March 21, 2024 9:01 AM UTC
The SNB became the first DM central bank to cut rates with a 25bps reduction to 1.50%, which reflects an even larger forecast inflation undershoot and to counterbalance the strong Swiss Franc (CHF). The inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025 were significantly lowered even with the new 1.50% policy
March 12, 2024
SNB Preview: Preparing to Ease?
March 12, 2024 3:11 PM UTC
It is noteworthy that the SNB has already started to the reverse the policy course it initiated some two years ago, having dropped formally in December plans of further FX sales. But now it is seemingly doing the opposite to a degree that is seeing its balance sheet re-expand. Moreover, having als
February 14, 2024
Markets: ECB/BOE/SNB Before the Fed?
February 14, 2024 11:35 AM UTC
Bottom Line: We do see 25bps cuts arriving from the ECB/BOE and SNB and most likely these will all be in June. Whether this is before the Fed will likely be a function of the Fed, as we see these interest rate moves as being driven by domestic fundamentals rather than the Fed being an influence.
February 13, 2024
Switzerland: Disinflation - Fanned by the Franc
February 13, 2024 11:14 AM UTC
It is somewhat ironic that the sharp and surprising slump in CPI inflation in January resulted in a weakening of the Franc, the currency’s recent and still clear strength actually the major factor behind this seemingly clearer disinflation. Indeed, the CPI details showed the major factor was eve
January 11, 2024
Webinar Recording December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
January 11, 2024 8:22 AM UTC
You can now access the webinar for the December Outlook here.
To read the individual chapters please see the weblink below.
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
China Outloo
January 08, 2024
Charting our Views December Outlook
January 8, 2024 9:05 AM UTC
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
Economic Scenarios
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
Brazil Policy Rate and CPI Inflation (YoY, %)
China Outlook: Headwinds To China Growth (here)
Japan Outlook: Normalizing
January 02, 2024
December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
January 2, 2024 9:53 AM UTC
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
China Outlook: Headwinds To China Growth (here)
Japan Outlook: Normalizing Monetary Policy Soon (here)
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook:
December 19, 2023
December 18, 2023
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024
December 18, 2023 3:42 PM UTC
· Uncertainty still prevails around this central view. The impact of lagged monetary tightening could be greater than our estimates and deliver mild recessions in some DM countries. We also feel that the disinflationary process could be stronger and this would help bring inflation back
December 15, 2023
Western Europe Outlook: Inflation Succumbing?
December 15, 2023 2:44 PM UTC
Our Forecasts
Risks to Our Views
Common Themes
There continue to be clear cross currents across Western Europe’s economies that may continue into 2024 and possibly beyond, all inter-related. Firstly, while we have made little alteration to the 2024 outlooks for all four countries, they remain very
December 14, 2023
SNB Review: June 2024 Rate Cut?
December 14, 2023 9:16 AM UTC
Figure 1: SNB Inflation Projections Source: SNBPeak SNB and Inflation Undershoot The December SNB policy assessment points to a peak in the policy rates having already been achieved, which is really just a reinforcement of the conclusion after the forecast 2025 marginal inflation undersho
December 08, 2023
This week's five highlights
December 8, 2023 10:34 AM UTC
U.S. November NFP Likely firmer due to returning strikers
USD/JPY Slumped on Ueda's Speech
Bank of Canada Tightening Bias Persists but is Reduced
USD/CAD Slipping on Weak Oil
RBA Continue to be data dependent
We expect a 200k increase in November's non-farm payroll, stronger than October's 150k though ex
December 06, 2023
SNB Preview: Clearly Staying on Hold
December 6, 2023 11:39 AM UTC
Figure 1: SNB CPI Inflation Projections Back Below Target
Source: SNB
SNB Surprised in September With No Hike
The SNB surprised with no change in policy at its September assessment, despite widespread market expectations of a 25 bp hike to 2.0%. This reflected the inflation decline of previous mont
September 27, 2023
Western Europe Outlook: Policy Peaking
September 27, 2023 9:50 AM UTC
Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics, Office for National Statistics, Eurostat, Swiss Secretariat for Economic Affairs, Statistics Norway
Risks to Our Views
Source: Continuum Economics
A Riskier Score for 2024
There a several common themes across Western Europe’s economies that are evident at pres
September 21, 2023
SNB: Pause and End Tightening Cycle
September 21, 2023 8:12 AM UTC
Figure 1: SNB CPI Inflation Projections on 1.75% Policy Rate (%)
Source: SNB
SNB Surprises With No Hike
The SNB surprised with no change in policy, despite widespread market expectations of a 25bps hike to 2.0%. Key issues behind the pause include.
•Inflation decline in recent months. Inflat
September 15, 2023
Swiss National Bank Preview (Sep 21): A Last Hurrah?
September 15, 2023 9:38 AM UTC
Figure 1: Core Inflation Clearly Softening Markedly
Source: SNB
Significant Tightening
In what seemed to be a continued complacent assessment, the SNB met market expectations and raised its policy rates by a further 25 bp to 1.75% in June, half the increase it pushed through in previous assessment in
August 15, 2023
Switzerland: A Franc Assessment of Growth Risks
August 15, 2023 11:41 AM UTC
Figure 1: Marked Rise in Franc Continues
Source: SNB
Policy Backdrop
In what now even more seems to have been a complacent assessment, in June, the SNB met market expectations and raised its policy rates by a further 25 bp to 1.75%, half the increase it pushed through in its previous assessment in Marc
June 22, 2023
Western Europe Outlook: Consumer Fragilities Persist
June 22, 2023 12:48 PM UTC
Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics, Office for National Statistics, Eurostat, Swiss Secretariat for Economic Affairs, Statistics Norway
Risks to Our Views
Source: Continuum Economics
Despite the drop in energy prices (which means that the threat of immediate recession has been reduced), it is not
March 27, 2023
Western Europe Outlook: Valedictory Hiking?
March 27, 2023 3:16 PM UTC
Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics, Office for National Statistics, Eurostat, Swiss Secretariat for Economic Affairs, Statistics Norway
Risks to Our Views
Source: Continuum Economics
We still see fully-fledged recessions in all but Switzerland but they are now envisaged to be shallower and shorte
February 22, 2023
In-Depth Research: Quick Roadmap Central Bank Forecast/Rationale - February 2023
February 22, 2023 10:44 AM UTC
M/T Quick Roadmap – Fundamental MMKT/CB Roadmap and Rationale
February 2023
US FEDERAL RESERVE
The February 1 December FOMC meeting saw the pace of tightening slowed to 25bps. Inflation has slowed, but January's CPI details still show broad based inflationary pressures at a pace well above the Fed's
September 05, 2022
Energy War and European Markets
September 5, 2022 1:21 PM UTC
Market Implications: Market expectations that the ECB will lift the deposit rate to 2% by early 2023 look overdone, as a EZ recession will reduce underlying inflation pressures; labor market flexibility avoids a EZ wage inflation problem and the Euro will likely avoid a downward spiral as fiscal sup
August 26, 2022
Electric Shock for European Leaders
August 26, 2022 9:33 AM UTC
Figure 1: TTF Gas Prices and German Electricity Prices (Aug. 24, 2021 = 100)
Source: Bloomberg, Continuum Economics
Electricity Price Surge for Industry and Households
European industries are starting to balk at the huge surge in electricity prices now and in the near future (Figure 1), with intensiv