Switzerland
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March 27, 2025
March 26, 2025
Outlook Overview: Navigating the Turbulence
March 26, 2025 9:30 AM UTC
· More tariffs will arrive from the U.S. from April with product (car, pharma, semiconductors and lumber) and reciprocal tariffs. President Trump has a 3-part approach to tariffs to raise (tax) revenue; bring production back to the U.S. and get fairer trade deals. This means some of t
March 25, 2025
Western Europe Outlook: Price Pressures - Puzzling or Possibly Persistent!
March 25, 2025 10:47 AM UTC
· In the UK, we continue to retain our below-consensus GDP picture for this year, with growth actually downgraded and with downside risks that may actually be both increasing and materializing. The BoE will likely ease further through 2025 by at least 75 bp and maybe faster and into 202
DM FX Outlook: USD under pressure as Trump policies disappoint
March 25, 2025 8:51 AM UTC
· Bottom Line: The market had expected the Trump presidency to see further fiscal expansion and consequent tight Fed policy and high US yields. But the combination of less tax cuts than previously expected and more aggressive tariff increases have led to reduced expectations for US grow
March 20, 2025
SNB: 25 bp Cut Likely To Last
March 20, 2025 9:26 AM UTC
Bottom Line: With inflation forecasts stable, and given a reasonable economic outlook, it would be a good time to pause or stop the SNB easing cycle. However, if the U.S. trade tariffs have a bigger adverse effect than expected or the CHF surges, then the SNB may want the option to ease again later
March 11, 2025
SNB Preview (Mar 20): A Final Cut?
March 11, 2025 11:45 AM UTC
Having very much delivered relatively rapid easing worth some 125 bp in the last year, we see a further SNB rate cut of 25 bp at this month’s quarterly assessment taking the policy rate to 0.25%, the lowest since Sep 2022, ie when the Board moved away from negative rates. A return to negative ra
February 19, 2025
U.S. 25% Tariff for Cars, Pharma and Semiconductors?
February 19, 2025 1:40 PM UTC
· Tariff reality in the spring and summer will likely be both tariff threats to negotiate trade deals and permanently higher tariffs in certain products and reciprocally to raise revenue for the U.S. government – along Peter Navarro guidance to Trump. The macro effects of this cou
December 30, 2024
December 24, 2024
December Outlook Webinar on Jan 7: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics
December 24, 2024 8:30 AM UTC
The U.S. economy’s momentum remains reasonable before the impact of President-elect Trump’s policies in 2025 and 2026. While high uncertainty exists on the scale and timing of policy, the strategic bias is clear – sizeable tax cuts that will boost the budget deficit; tariffs (threats
December 20, 2024
DM FX Outlook: USD to edge lower despite high yields
December 20, 2024 8:28 AM UTC
· Bottom Line: Recent strong US data has bolstered the USD, with the Trump election victory also supportive due to expectations of tax cuts and tariffs which are seen leading to less Fed easing than previously expected. While we still see the USD weakening through 2025 as Fed easing red
December 19, 2024
Western Europe Outlook: Divergent Policy Thinking
December 19, 2024 2:12 PM UTC
· In the UK, perhaps the main story in our outlook is that we retain our below-consensus GDP picture for next year, with growth of 1.0% and with downside risks. The BoE will likely ease further through 2025 by at least 100 bp and maybe faster and beyond.
· As for Sweden, d
Outlook Overview: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics
December 19, 2024 9:25 AM UTC
· The U.S. economy momentum remains reasonable before President elect Trump’s policies impact in 2025 and 2026. While high uncertainty exists on the scale and timing of policies, the strategic bias is clear – sizeable tax cuts that will boost the budget deficit; tariffs (threats
December 18, 2024
Jan 7 Outlook Webinar: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics
December 18, 2024 1:23 PM UTC
The U.S. economy’s momentum remains reasonable before the impact of President-elect Trump’s policies in 2025 and 2026. While high uncertainty exists on the scale and timing of policy, the strategic bias is clear – sizeable tax cuts that will boost the budget deficit; tariffs (threats
December 12, 2024
SNB Review: Easing Bias Toned Down?
December 12, 2024 9:21 AM UTC
In what seems to be ever-clearer policy front-loading, the SNB cut its policy rate by 50 bp (to 0.5%), thereby accentuating an easing cycle that had delivered three 25 bp moves since March. Possibly, this larger, but far from unexpected, reduction was driven by a fresh assessment that the inflatio
December 03, 2024
SNB Preview (Dec 12): How Much Further Easing?
December 3, 2024 1:54 PM UTC
Whatever the SNB does this month is likely to be merely a further staging post in an easing cycle that has to date delivered three 25 bp moves since March, ie taking the policy rate to 1.0%. More likely the SNB will again cut by 25 bp this month, but amid downside real economy risks and inflation
September 27, 2024
September 26, 2024
Western Europe Outlook: Gradualism vs Reality
September 26, 2024 10:45 AM UTC
· In the UK, while headline GDP numbers look firmer, the real economy backdrop and outlook remains no better than mixed. This should improve a disinflation process driven mainly by friendlier supply conditions. The BoE will likely ease in Q4 and continue doing so through 2025 (we look
SNB Review: More Cuts on the Way
September 26, 2024 8:24 AM UTC
Very much as expected, the SNB today repeated the 25 bp policy rate cut that it had made twice since March. This took the policy rate to 1.0% and reflected an even clearer below-target inflation picture in both recent actual numbers and the updated outlook (Figure 1). This flagged further easing
September 25, 2024
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts But How Far?
September 25, 2024 7:30 AM UTC
· The U.S. economy is slowing, with the critical question being whether this is a soft or harder landing. Our broad analysis leaves us inclined to the soft landing view into 2025, though we shall watch real sector data closely over the next 3-6 months to check the trajectory. Else
DM FX Outlook: USD Set for 2025 Decline
September 25, 2024 7:11 AM UTC
· Bottom Line: The USD has reached the end of year targets of 1.12 for EUR/USD and 140 for USD/JPY that we forecast in June, when it was trading at 1.07 and 159 respectively. From here, we still favour the USD downside through both the rest of the year and 2025, as the Fed continues to
September 19, 2024
SNB Preview (Sep 26): Another Cut All But Certain But How Large an Inflation Target Undershoot
September 19, 2024 1:54 PM UTC
Along with market thinking, we see the SNB next Thursday repeating the 25 bp policy rate cut that it has now made twice since March. This would take the policy rate to 1.0% and where the very clear below-target inflation picture in both recent actual numbers and the outlook flagged by the SNB in J
September 15, 2024
Sep 27 Outlook Webinar: Rate Cuts But How Far?
September 15, 2024 10:30 AM UTC
Uncertainty about whether the U.S. economy will have a soft or hard landing is growing as the market approaches Q4. This is shaping the debate regarding the scale of easing through the remainder of 2024 and 2025 by the Fed. European easing is underway, but how much further will central ba
June 26, 2024
June 25, 2024
Outlook Overview: Cyclical and Structural Forces
June 25, 2024 10:15 AM UTC
• The global economy is showing signs of healing, as inflation comes back towards targets and growth recovers momentum in some economies. Nevertheless, the cyclical headwind of lagged monetary tightening remains in DM countries, and will likely be one of the forces slowing the U.S. economy
June 24, 2024
Western Europe Outlook: Easing Cycles Diverge?
June 24, 2024 7:48 AM UTC
· · In the UK, while downside economic risks may have dissipated, the real economy backdrop and outlook is still no better than mixed. This should accentuate a disinflation process hitherto driven mainly by friendlier supply conditions. The BoE will likely ease in Q3 and
DM FX Outlook: Politics rears its head
June 24, 2024 7:42 AM UTC
· Bottom Line: The USD strength in Q2 on the back of a less dovish view of the Fed is unlikely to extend over the rest of the year. The JPY remains exceptionally cheap and has potential to recover sharply if risk appetite weakens. A slower JPY recovery is likely if lower inflation leads
June 20, 2024
SNB: 25bps Cut and Next Cut in September
June 20, 2024 8:34 AM UTC
The SNB cut by 25bps to try and stop inflation undershooting. We look for a further 25bps cut in September, as the new inflation forecasts remains too far below target for SNB comfort. CHF strength will also not ebb quickly given the prospect of prolonged French political uncertainty.
June 12, 2024
SNB Preview (Jun 20): Another Cut Likely but How Large an Inflation Target Undershoot
June 12, 2024 9:26 AM UTC
Along with market thinking, we see the SNB on June 20 repeating the 25 bp policy rate cut that it surprised many with three months ago. This would take the policy rate to 1.25% and where the very clear below-target inflation picture in both recent actual numbers and the outlook flagged by the SNB
April 03, 2024
March 27, 2024
March 25, 2024
March 22, 2024
Western Europe Outlook: Easing Cycle Underway?
March 22, 2024 11:26 AM UTC
· In the UK, downside economic risks may have dissipated but the tighter monetary stance has far from fully bitten. This accentuates and/or prolongs an already weak domestic backdrop into 2025 that will complement friendlier supply conditions in easing inflation. The BoE will likely e
March 21, 2024
Switzerland: SNB Surprise with 25bps Rate Cut
March 21, 2024 9:01 AM UTC
The SNB became the first DM central bank to cut rates with a 25bps reduction to 1.50%, which reflects an even larger forecast inflation undershoot and to counterbalance the strong Swiss Franc (CHF). The inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025 were significantly lowered even with the new 1.50% policy
March 12, 2024
SNB Preview: Preparing to Ease?
March 12, 2024 3:11 PM UTC
It is noteworthy that the SNB has already started to the reverse the policy course it initiated some two years ago, having dropped formally in December plans of further FX sales. But now it is seemingly doing the opposite to a degree that is seeing its balance sheet re-expand. Moreover, having als
February 14, 2024
Markets: ECB/BOE/SNB Before the Fed?
February 14, 2024 11:35 AM UTC
Bottom Line: We do see 25bps cuts arriving from the ECB/BOE and SNB and most likely these will all be in June. Whether this is before the Fed will likely be a function of the Fed, as we see these interest rate moves as being driven by domestic fundamentals rather than the Fed being an influence.
February 13, 2024
Switzerland: Disinflation - Fanned by the Franc
February 13, 2024 11:14 AM UTC
It is somewhat ironic that the sharp and surprising slump in CPI inflation in January resulted in a weakening of the Franc, the currency’s recent and still clear strength actually the major factor behind this seemingly clearer disinflation. Indeed, the CPI details showed the major factor was eve
December 15, 2023
Western Europe Outlook: Inflation Succumbing?
December 15, 2023 2:44 PM UTC
· In the UK, downside economic risks may still be materializing as the tighter monetary stance has far from fully bitten. This accentuates and/or prolongs an already negative domestic backdrop that may now stretch into 2025. The BoE has already paused and will likely ease next year an
December 14, 2023
SNB Review: June 2024 Rate Cut?
December 14, 2023 9:16 AM UTC
The SNB are trying to dampen early rate cut talk, but the 1.6% projection for 2025 inflation should really be viewed as an undershoot of the inflation target and arguing for a rate cut in H1 2024. Given our forecast for 2024 inflation is 1.5%, we now see the SNB deliver the first 25bps cut in June
December 08, 2023
This week's five highlights
December 8, 2023 10:34 AM UTC
U.S. November NFP Likely firmer due to returning strikers
USD/JPY Slumped on Ueda's Speech
Bank of Canada Tightening Bias Persists but is Reduced
USD/CAD Slipping on Weak Oil
RBA Continue to be data dependent
We expect a 200k increase in November's non-farm payroll, stronger than October's 150k though ex
September 27, 2023
Western Europe Outlook: Policy Peaking
September 27, 2023 9:50 AM UTC
Forecast changes: Compared to our June Outlook, GDP growth forecasts have again seen mixed developments, slightly less poor for the UK and Norway for this year, but with 2024 downgrades seen across the board. But it is the upgraded current year inflation projections that explain the more significant
June 22, 2023
Western Europe Outlook: Consumer Fragilities Persist
June 22, 2023 12:48 PM UTC
Forecast changes: Compared to our March Outlook, GDP growth forecasts have again seen mixed developments, slightly less poor for the UK and Norway, but up clearly in Sweden but where recessions are still on the cards in all but Switzerland. But it is the upgraded inflation projections that explain t
February 22, 2023
In-Depth Research: Quick Roadmap Central Bank Forecast/Rationale - February 2023
February 22, 2023 10:44 AM UTC
M/T Quick Roadmap – Fundamental MMKT/CB Roadmap and Rationale
February 2023
US FEDERAL RESERVE
The February 1 December FOMC meeting saw the pace of tightening slowed to 25bps. Inflation has slowed, but January's CPI details still show broad based inflationary pressures at a pace well above the Fed's