South Africa Inflation Edged Up to 3.6% y/y in October, Marking the Highest Reading Since September 2024

November 19, 2025 3:53 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on November 19 that annual inflation edged up to 3.6% YoY in October due to accelerated transport, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, and recreation costs. Despite inflation staying  within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 1 percenta

Markets 2026

November 18, 2025 10:30 AM UTC

·        The Fed, ECB and BOE will likely drive further 10-2yr government bond yield curve steepening, with 10yr Bund yields rising due to ECB QT and German fiscal expansion. 10yr JGB yields are set to surge through 2%, as BOJ QT remains excessive and underestimated.  The BOJ could partiall

Financial Stability Risks: Vulnerable To A Recession

November 17, 2025 1:00 PM UTC

The November Fed financial stability review highlights continued concern over hedge funds and insurance company leverage, while the IMF GSFR is concerned about U.S. equity market overvaluation and growing links between banks and non-bank financial intermediaries.  However, the main adverse shock wo

India CPI Review: Inflation Cools to Historic Lows

November 17, 2025 8:04 AM UTC

India’s October inflation print confirms a rare moment of macro alignment—low inflation, solid growth, and room for monetary easing. The RBI now faces a high-conviction window to cut rates in December, but must stay vigilant against creeping food price risks as FY26 progresses.

Slowest Rate of Growth for Russia Since Q1 2023: 0.6% y/y in Q3 2025

November 14, 2025 6:06 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Ministry of Economic Development’s preliminary figures, Russia's GDP expanded by a moderate 0.6% y/y in Q3, marking the slowest rate of growth since Q1 2023 showing the economic slowdown in Russia is more evident now. We think Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) previous agg

Russia’s Inflation Softened to 7.7% y/y in October

November 14, 2025 5:00 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As expected, Russian inflation continued its decreasing pattern in October and edged down to 7.7% thanks to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening, and relative resilience of RUB particularly after July. Despite fall in inflation; we think the inflation will continue

China: Unbalanced Growth

November 14, 2025 8:15 AM UTC

·       The slowdown in China retail sales continues, with excess production still evident.  Nevertheless, the slowdown in industrial production and private sector business investment suggests that companies are becoming less upbeat about domestic demand.  Underlying growth is 4.0%, though

China: CPI Rises Helped By Government Pressure

November 10, 2025 8:24 AM UTC

•    Less food price decline, plus government pressure to curtail price wars, helped headline and core CPI move higher. However, the September industrial production and retail sales figure shows that the imbalance between supply and domestic demand remains in place.  The imbalance of supply a

India’s Fiscal Deficit Swells, Yet 4.4% Target Still Within Reach

November 7, 2025 7:30 PM UTC

India’s fiscal performance in H1 reflects a calculated front-loading of capex to support growth, while record non-tax revenues offer a buffer. Execution risks remain in H2, but the government appears confident in meeting its 4.4% deficit target without derailing market or reform momentum.

India CPI Preview: Disinflation Deepens: October CPI Forecast at 1.1%

November 7, 2025 5:43 PM UTC

We forecast October CPI at 1.1% yr/yr, with risks tilted to the downside. The disinflationary trend is broad-based, but unlikely to last into early 2026. RBI still has room to cut, but may prefer to assess the durability of food price softness before moving

China’s 2nd Tier Banking Problems

November 7, 2025 2:45 PM UTC

China’s residential property bust continues to feedthrough to some bank’s non-performing loans and financial stability. Even so, the latest PBOC financial stability report shows the percentage of high risk rated banks has not increased over the last 12 months, while China authorities early warni

Banxico: December In Doubt and Pause Closer

November 7, 2025 9:56 AM UTC

The December Banxico meeting is not guaranteed to see a further 25bps cut, with the November Banxico statement showing more caution over persistent core inflation pressures and given the cumulative easing already seen. Combined with the risk of a Fed pause in December, plus Banxico’s Mexican Peso

Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in October Likely Hitting Below 8.0% y/y

November 6, 2025 2:39 PM UTC

Bottom Line: We expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in October thanks to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening coupled with softening food prices and decreasing core inflation. October inflation figures will be announced on November 14, and we foresee Yr/Y

Inflation Slightly Edged Down in October: But MoM Stood High at 2.5%

November 3, 2025 10:50 AM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced October inflation figures on November 3. Turkiye’s y/y inflation moderately softened to around 32.9% in October from 33.3% in September while upside-tilted inflation risks continued limiting the downward trend during the ongoing disinfla

China: Fiscal Stimulus Modest Rather than Large?

November 3, 2025 9:07 AM UTC

•    Overall, we see around a Yuan2.0-2.5trn fiscal stimulus for 2026 and some of this could be announced in December but the majority in March 2026.  This reflects the fiscal constraints on China authorities; the targeted focus in the 2026-31 five year plan and reluctance to spending on hous

U.S./China Trade Framework: Avoiding Escalation

October 31, 2025 7:48 AM UTC

·         The U.S./China framework deal avoids renewed escalation of trade tension, but is unlikely to be followed by a comprehensive trade deal in 2026 as China does not want major import and bilateral trade commitments.  The economic effects will likely be small and the deal main aim app

Turkiye: Macroeconomic Problems Limit Long Term Growth

October 30, 2025 12:25 PM UTC

Bottom line: We forecast 3.5%-4.0% GDP growth in Turkiye in the 2026-2030 period. We are concerned with the macroeconomic problems will stay critical until 2027/2028, including stubborn inflation, trade and budget deficits, and weakening Turkish Lira (TRY). Despite growing population and young labor

Breakthrough in Sight: India and US Move Towards Bilateral Trade Agreement

October 30, 2025 6:05 AM UTC

The India–US trade deal now seems within reach after months of deadlock, with both sides signalling convergence on major issues. For Indian exporters, particularly in textiles, marine products, and engineering goods, the removal of US tariffs would provide a timely boost amid global demand uncerta

Turkiye Inflation Preview: Inflation will Slightly Soften in October Despite Risks Dominate

October 28, 2025 4:43 PM UTC

Bottom line: After hitting 33.3% annually in September, we expect Turkiye’s inflation will likely soften moderately to around 32.5% in October while upside-tilted inflation risks limiting the downward trend during the ongoing disinflationary process. September inflation suggested that the pace o

India’s Core Sector Growth Slows to 3%: Infrastructure Holds Firm, Energy Falters

October 28, 2025 6:14 AM UTC

India’s September core sector data encapsulates a pivotal juncture for the economy — resilient infrastructure activity offset by energy vulnerability. Slowing core output implies lower industrial output growth over Q2-FY26.

U.S-China Trade Tensions Ease, US-Canada Tensions Escalate

October 27, 2025 3:32 PM UTC

Trade tensions between the US and China appear to be easing, with it looking increasingly unlikely that the US will impose a threatened extra 100% tariff on China on November 1. However trade tensions with Canada have increased, with Canada receiving an extra 10% tariff, adding to downside economic

South Africa Inflation Slightly Surged to 3.4% YoY in September

October 22, 2025 2:01 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on October 22 that annual inflation edged up to 3.4% YoY in September from 3.3% YoY in August due to accelerated housing, restaurant and utilities costs. Despite inflation is still within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 3%-6% targe

India Accelerates Mineral Diplomacy as Beijing Tightens Export Controls

October 17, 2025 7:31 AM UTC

China’s expanded export curbs on rare earths have pushed India to fast-track its critical minerals strategy — combining domestic stockpiles, new mining auctions, and global supply alliances. New Delhi’s plan hinges on building refining capacity and securing long-term deals in Latin America, Af

Oil, Tariffs, and Technology: Inside India–US Trade Negotiations

October 17, 2025 6:27 AM UTC

India and the US are nearing the first phase of a long-awaited Bilateral Trade Agreement, with negotiations in Washington focusing on tariffs, digital standards, and supply-chain resilience.Energy remains the flashpoint, as Washington’s 50% duties tied to India’s Russian oil imports complicate p

India CPI Review: CPI at Eight-Year Low: Disinflation Deepens, RBI Seen Easing in December

October 14, 2025 7:21 AM UTC

India’s retail inflation eased to 1.54% in September — the lowest in nearly eight years — driven by steep declines in food and fuel prices. With CPI now well below the RBI’s 2–6% tolerance band and GST cuts reinforcing disinflation, a December rate cut looks increasingly likely. Core infla

U.S-China Trade Tensions May Escalate Further Before Eventually Fading

October 13, 2025 3:19 PM UTC

Trump’s more conciliatory words after announcing a 100% tariff on China starting November 1 have eased market worries, though the issue is far from resolved. It is still possible that Trump will follow through with his threat on November 1, but unlikely that tariffs would remain elevated for very

Tourism and Services Income Helped Turkish Current Account in August

October 13, 2025 1:59 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) on October 13, Turkiye’s current account surplus (CAS) stood at USD5.5 billion in August 2025 from USD4.9 billion in the same month of the previous year, hitting the largest on record, thanks to strong tourism an

Russia’s Inflation Softened to 17-Month Low in September

October 10, 2025 7:02 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Russian inflation continued its decreasing pattern in September, and hit the lowest in 17-months after with 7.98% y/y, particularly thanks to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary. According to Rosstat’s announcement on October 10, core inflation eased to 7.7% y/y from 8% y/y

Enthusiastic Turkish Medium Term Program Towards 2026-2028 Aims to Find Solutions to Macroeconomic Issues… But Road is Bumpy

October 9, 2025 1:26 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the recently announced Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2026-2028, the main goal of the program remained bringing inflation down to single digits and ensuring price stability soon. Despite GDP growth is forecasted to be 3.8% next year, 4.3% in 2027 and 5% in 2028, we think the

CBRT’s Inflation Target for end-2025 will Likely Be Missed as Actual Inflation Deviates from the Targets

October 7, 2025 5:45 PM UTC

Bottom line: After inflation slightly increased to 33.3% y/y in September from 32.9% y/y in August driven by higher education, housing and food prices, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) governor Karahan announced on October 7 that CBRT will ensure that inflation remains consistent with interim targets

15-Month Consecutive Falling Streak Ends: Turkiye Inflation Surged to 33.3% in September

October 3, 2025 9:54 AM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on October 3 that the inflation slightly increased to 33.3% y/y in September from 32.9% y/y in August driven by higher education, housing and food prices, ending the 15-month consecutive falling streak. Increasing inflation, upside-tilted

Russia’s Growth Continues to Lose Steam

October 2, 2025 11:17 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to a recent announcement by the Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP expanded by a moderate 0.4% YoY in August, meeting the same pace in the previous month, driven by manufacturing, retail trade and agriculture activities. According to the announcement, the growth in

Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in September

October 1, 2025 1:35 PM UTC

Bottom Line: We expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in September, after hitting the softest rate since April of 2024 with 8.1% YoY in August, particularly thanks to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening coupled with softening services and food prices. Sep

Trump Tariffs: China, Mexico and Semiconductors

September 30, 2025 8:00 AM UTC

  ·       Our baseline (60% probability) remains that a U.S./China trade deal will be agreed in Q4/Q1 2026 and it is possible though unlikely that this could be announced at the Trump/Xi meeting at the October 31 APEC summit – China requests that the U.S. changes policy on Taiwan could slo

War in Ukraine: No Light Yet at the End of the Tunnel

September 26, 2025 12:34 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite expectations from the 80th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) held in New York were high, it did not yield a solution to the war in Ukraine, but an escalation between the U.S. and Russia. The claims by president Trump as he shifted his position on the war, saying for the f

September Outlook: Into 2026 -- Market Implications

September 26, 2025 9:00 AM UTC

Our September Outlook is now published and please see all our markets chapters below.  

Banxico Review: Slower Pace for 25bps Cuts

September 26, 2025 6:39 AM UTC

Banxico cut by 25bps to 7.5%. However, Banxico pushed up the near term inflation forecasts, which could mean that the November 6 meeting does not see a rate cut but rather Banxico waits until the December 18 meeting.  This is our view and we look for 25bps to 7.25%.  We then see two further 25bps

September Outlook: Into 2026

September 25, 2025 6:20 AM UTC

Our September Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

EM FX Outlook: USD Less in Favor, but EM Mixed

September 24, 2025 10:44 AM UTC

Outlook Forecasts to download in Excel

September 24, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

Below is an Excel file that contains our headline forecasts for GDP, Inflation, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rates.

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Balancing Moderation with Resilience

September 23, 2025 11:22 AM UTC

·       Asia’s growth trajectory in 2026 reflects regional resilience under strain. Investment-led economies like India and Malaysia are sustaining momentum via infrastructure push, public capex, and digital industrial policy, while Indonesia’s outlook is clouded by fiscal recalibration a

Outlook Overview: Into 2026

September 23, 2025 8:25 AM UTC

·       The critical question is how much the U.S. economy is slowing down with the feedthrough of President Donald Trump’s tariffs to boost inflation and restrain GDP growth, with the effective rate currently around 17% on U.S. imports. Though semiconductor tariffs are likely, the bulk of

Commodities Outlook: Markets in Motion

September 22, 2025 10:30 AM UTC

OPEC+ has entered a new supply cycle, gradually reversing a second layer of voluntary cuts. The latest 1.65 mln b/d tranche is being phased out at 137,000 b/d monthly, likely completed by September 2026, while 2 mln b/d of group-wide cuts remain until the end of 2026. Non-OPEC supply growth will lik

EMEA Outlooks Stay Mixed into 2026: Domestic and Global Uncertainties

September 22, 2025 6:58 AM UTC

·     In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 3.4% and 4.2% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, despite upside risks to inflation such as swings in food prices, supply chain destructions including energy shortages and port inefficiencies and global uncertainties. We see

China Outlook: Headwinds into 2026?

September 19, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

•    Overall, net exports contribution to GDP growth should be tempered in H2 2025, as 30% tariffs bite more progressively and other countries more closely monitor the redirection of China’s exports.  A trade deal with the U.S. remains our baseline, which should reduce tariffs to around 20%

Brazil: 15% Well Into 2026

September 18, 2025 6:29 AM UTC

The BCB statement was clear that the deanchored inflation picture still requires interest rates to be kept at current levels for a very prolonged period of time.  The consensus for economists is that this will change in Q1 2026 with a 50bps cut, though ideas of December are fading.  We suspect it

South Africa Inflation Slightly Softened to 3.3% YoY in August

September 17, 2025 1:17 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on September 17 that annual inflation softened  to 3.3% YoY in August from 3.5% in July thanks to slower food price growth and falling fuel costs. Despite inflation is still within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 3%-6% target rang

September 16, 2025 10:53 AM UTC

In the unexpected scenario of an early death, Putin and Xi have no clear successors, and any new Russia or China leader would have to spend time building domestic strength and compromising on external goals. Erdogan also has no clear successors, which could create political uncertainty. For Trump su

China: Broad Based Slowdown

September 15, 2025 7:55 AM UTC

       •    The latest monthly data from China show a broad based slowdown in the economy, due to the tariffs and structural weakness.  Though we keep 2025 real GDP at 4.8%, the underlying trend suggest a slowdown to 4.0% for 2026.  China authorities will start to announce fiscal measure