Mexico: Stable Rates Diverging From The Fed

September 25, 2026 7:52 AM UTC

·       As expected Banxico left the policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, with the statement clarifying that the Mexican and U.S. economies are different and Banxico will not mechanically follow the Fed.  The focus now is on the lagged benefit of easing and the inflation trajectory. Banxico will

Mexico: Diverging From The Fed

September 25, 2026 7:52 AM UTC

·       As expected Banxico left the policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, with the statement clarifying that the Mexican and U.S. economies are different and Banxico will not mechanically follow the Fed.  The focus now is on the lagged benefit of easing and the inflation trajectory. Banxico will

September Outlook: Navigation Into 2027

September 24, 2026 1:35 PM UTC

Our September Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

Outlook Overview: Navigation Into 2027

September 23, 2026 2:30 PM UTC

·       The hot phase of the Iran war is over, but the intermittent conflict between the U.S. and Iran is stopping shipping via the Straits of Hormuz from fully recovering and keeping energy prices elevated.  Some DM and EM central banks are guarding against 2nd round effects with modest tig

China and Brazil Outlook: Geo-Politics and Artificial Intelligence

September 23, 2026 10:05 AM UTC

·       China’s growth momentum continued to be sustained by AI/tech and green energy production and investment. Growth is however imbalanced with subdued consumption growth, due to adverse housing wealth effects and slow wage/job growth. Overall, we kept our forecast at 4.4% for 2026 and 4

Commodities Outlook: Brinkmanship

September 21, 2026 9:30 AM UTC

Transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained for the rest of 2026, with a partial reopening most likely in Q1 2027 (60%) and no deal until well into 2027 in the alternative scenario (40%). We see WTI at USD 95 at end-2026 under both scenarios, then USD 70 baseline and USD 85 alternative

BRICS and G20 In Trump 2.0

September 21, 2026 8:35 AM UTC

·       Though the BRICS summit ended with a joint communique, Trump 2.0 policies are stopping a unified counter to the U.S. or the West.  The December G20 summit at Trump’s Doral golf course in Florida is also likely to see the G20 papering over the cracks at a global level.  Regional ag

EM Europe and CIS: Select Country Risk Ratings

September 16, 2026 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for EM Europe/CIS countries including Russia and Ukraine. 

Country Risk in MENA

September 15, 2026 10:00 AM UTC

Country risk in Middle East and North Africa countries including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Qatar.

Open AI Delay IPO and Safety Fears

September 14, 2026 6:59 AM UTC

·       For financial markets, the Open AI IPO delay risks making the Open AI ecosystem more volatile, despite the huge private financing that it has already done this year.  Additionally, the wider safety fears and calls for slowing by leading AI labs increase the risks surrounding the 2027

Asia Country Risk Ratings

September 10, 2026 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Asia countries including China, India, Indonesia, Taiwan and Phillipines.  

Strait of Hormuz Scenarios

September 7, 2026 7:32 AM UTC

Our new baseline (60%) is for a new ceasefire deal into Q4 2026 or Q1 2027 that allows more shipping to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. We feel that economic pressure on Iran remains intense and that Iran will want to lift the U.S. blockade on its energy shipments and export revenue.  The Trump

Barbarous Relic or Strategic Hedge - Gold in a late-cycle portfolio

September 1, 2026 7:00 AM UTC

* Gold worked off early year retail excess, moving into a more constructive technical and seasonal period
* The strategic case for gold is much wider: rich risk asset valuations can neither be sat out nor left unhedged
* History (no guarantee of future performance…) supports increased gold hedges in

China Widening C/A Surplus

August 14, 2026 7:05 AM UTC

 •    China could reduce its excess current account surplus by a package of real Yuan appreciation; industrial policy reform to clean up excess production and structural boosts to safety nets that can sustainably boost consumption share in GDP.  China authorities are reluctant to adopt these

Taiwan: China Coastguard Quarantine Risks Grow

August 10, 2026 7:55 AM UTC

·       Given China’s coastguard recent actions, we now raise the probability of a full quarantine of Taiwan shipping to 20% versus 10-15% in 2027/28 (Figure 2), with the probability of some further measures beyond radio requests now above 50% in 2027/28 and in our baseline. Quarantine meas

Brazil: 25bps Cut For September

August 6, 2026 6:53 AM UTC

·       BCB cut by 25bps to 14%, as widely expected.  The statement suggests that COPOM is looking to pause the easing cycle, but we feel the softening of the economy and inflation numbers are enough to deliver one further 25bps cut in September and then the BCB pauses into Q1 2027.  We see

Brazil: Post-Election Fiscal Challenge

July 29, 2026 10:55 AM UTC

·       Brazil needs better fiscal consolidation from 2028 onwards, which a new president will have to decide on after the October 2028 election.  This includes better expenditure control, as mandatory spending currently comprises about 90 percent of federal primary expenditure. Any delinkin

China: Debt Surge Problems

July 28, 2026 10:55 AM UTC

·       China general government debt/GDP is on an unstable upward trend.  China authorities are reluctant to ease underlying fiscal policy more than the already large primary budget deficit, but are also reluctant to consider broadening of income tax or property taxes that would help fiscal

China Jun Activity Data Review: A Diverged Economy

July 16, 2026 6:32 AM UTC

China’s June activity data displayed divergence of statistics, as AI and related infrastructure boost industrial production. Urban Fixed Asset Investment was still depressed, due to on-going failure of mainland developers, retail sales still remained modest , weighed down by the wealth effect from

Iran/U.S.: A New War or Escalating to Deescalate?

July 14, 2026 10:40 AM UTC

·       Our baseline remains that the MOU will hold and that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen.  Iran can be pressured economically by the U.S. naval blockade being re-established. Additionally, President Trump loves to escalate to de-escalate to get a deal.  This is a 60% probability scenar

Mexico: Fiscal Consolidation and Reducing Real Yields

July 13, 2026 9:55 AM UTC

·       10yr real yields in Mexico are currently high at 5%, given a moderate fiscal trajectory and some government action towards fiscal reform (though the judicial reforms have been criticized by global investors, the reality is no major political manipulation).  10yr nominal yields could

China LGFV Repair Rather Than Reboot

July 7, 2026 9:45 AM UTC

•    Our assessment is that this ongoing exercise will likely have a small boost to GDP growth.  LGFV’s debt restructuring could allow some new borrowing, but the big issue is that LGFV and LG finances are dependent on one off property taxes with the building of new property.  The overhang

Australia Outlook: Steady

July 6, 2026 2:45 AM UTC

Australian CPI showed signs of moderation in recent read. It should be enough to persuade the RBA their previous hike to be enough.

EM Government Debt Sinners and Saints

July 3, 2026 1:05 PM UTC

·       Overall, the clearest EM fiscal sinner is Brazil, given its tax revenue/GDP ratio is already very high and requires politically sensitive expenditure cuts after the October election to increase the primary surplus to stabilize the government debt/GDP trajectory and get real bond yield

Macro and Market Implications of 'Super' El Nino Risks

July 1, 2026 8:08 AM UTC

El Nino, and a potentially severe one, is increasingly looking like a central scenario rather than a tail risk for 2026-27.
2026-27 El Nino is shaping up to be strong enough to matter, at least for scenario planning. 
The key facts are broadly: Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia and South Africa are l

China Yuan to 6.65 Then 6.50?

June 29, 2026 7:10 AM UTC

 ·       We feel that the authorities will pause appreciation at times via FX intervention, but then allow appreciation to restart.  We now see further Yuan appreciation to 6.65 by end 2026, though the authorities will be reluctant to see much more.  For end 2027 we forecast USDCNY at 6.50

Turkiye Inflation Preview: CPI is Expected to Slightly Increase in June

June 26, 2026 12:37 PM UTC

Bottom line: After standing at 32.6% annually in May, we expect consumer price index (CPI) will slightly surge to around 32.8%-33.0% y/y in June due to secondary impacts of the energy price shocks stemming from Middle East tensions. June print will be announced by Turkish Statistical Institute (TU

Mexico: Banxico Pause, But MXN and USMCA Renegotiations

June 26, 2026 7:04 AM UTC

·       As expected Banxico left the policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, with the focus now on the lagged benefit of easing and also what will happen with the USMCA negotiations.  Banxico will likely keep the current policy rate through end 2026, given concerns that the Fed could tighten – eve

June Outlook: Iran War and AI Challenges

June 25, 2026 7:55 AM UTC

Our June Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

Outlook Forecasts to download in Excel

June 24, 2026 10:00 AM UTC

Below is an Excel file that contains our headline forecasts for GDP, Inflation, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rates.

Outlook Overview: Cyclical and Structural Forces

June 24, 2026 7:00 AM UTC

·       The difference between 2nd round inflation effects from higher energy prices and 1st round effects that central banks can look through swings on whether the Straits of Hormuz will remain open in the coming months after the U.S./Iran interim agreement (here). Despite some tensions, we

China and EM Asia Outlook: Divergent Trends

June 24, 2026 6:22 AM UTC

·       China’s growth momentum is being sustained by AI/tech and green energy production and investment. However, growth is imbalanced with modest consumption growth, due to adverse housing wealth effects and slow wage/job growth.  Overall, we forecast 4.4% for 2026 and 4.2% for 2027. Chi

Commodities Outlook: The War and Its Reversal

June 23, 2026 10:05 AM UTC

The US-Iran memorandum marks a turn, but a fragile one. We attach 80% probability to the Strait of Hormuz reopening over June/July and staying open through 2027, and 20% to a second-half reclosure if Israel-Hezbollah tensions draw Iran back in (here). Most of the war premium has already unwound, and

EMEA Outlook: Domestic Uncertainties Dominate

June 22, 2026 1:00 PM UTC

·     In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 4.4% and 3.9% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. This baseline assumes easing energy prices starting in Q3, though second-round inflationary pressures from the Iran conflict will linger for some time. Accordingly, we foreca

Fuel and Transportation Costs Pushed South African Inflation to 4.5% in May

June 18, 2026 10:25 AM UTC

Bottom Line: South Africa’s annual inflation climbed to 4.5% in May driven by surging fuel and transport costs, according to StatsSA's announcement. The core inflation surged to 3.8% y/y in May from 3.6% in the previous month, marking the highest reading since October 2024. While we anticipate tha

China: Divided Economy

June 16, 2026 7:22 AM UTC

·       Overall, growth remains unbalanced.  Momentum in AI/automation leads economic growth, with support from net exports still.  However, consumption is not consistent with a 5% growth pace, as adverse wealth effects and a soft labor market mean only modest consumption.  While the stimu

U.S./Iran Interim Deal and Reopening Strait of Hormuz

June 15, 2026 12:32 PM UTC

  ·       Our baseline (80%) is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in H2 2026 and remains open through 2027.  However, logistics dislocation plus a switch from commercial inventory rundown to rebuilding will likely slow the decline in oil prices back towards normal levels (Figure 1).  O

Asia Country Risk Ratings

June 15, 2026 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Asia countries including China, India, Indonesia, Taiwan and Phillipines.  

EM Europe and CIS: Select Country Risk Ratings

June 12, 2026 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for EM Europe/CIS countries including Russia and Ukraine. 

Russian Inflation Drops to 5.3% in May, Hitting Lowest Level Since August 2023

June 10, 2026 5:41 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Russia’s annual inflation continued its decreasing pattern moderately in May and slowed to 5.3% y/y. This deceleration was driven by the lagged effects of previous aggressive monetary tightening, a relatively resilient ruble, and softening core inflation. Marking the lowest level sinc

South African Economy Grew by 1.9% y/y in Q1

June 9, 2026 2:45 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) released the Q1 2026 growth figures on June 9. Economy grew by 1.9% y/y (0.5 q/q) in Q1, accelerating from an annual 0.8% advance in Q4 2025 supported by stronger outputs from service and agricultural sectors and a positive trade balance despite weakne

Country Risk in MENA

June 8, 2026 10:00 AM UTC

Country risk in Middle East and North Africa countries including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Qatar.

Inflation Increased to 32.6% y/y in May due to Surges in Energy Prices

June 5, 2026 1:26 PM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced May inflation figures on June 5.  After hitting 32.4% annually in April, Turkiye’s inflation surged to 32.6% in May due to rising housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuel costs. We now assess Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) will

More Yuan Appreciation, but Controlled

June 4, 2026 9:55 AM UTC

•    The Yuan has been appreciating driven by a large trade surplus; the ongoing trade truce with the U.S. after Trump May visit and official acceptance of Yuan gains. Even so, we feel that China’s authorities will pause appreciation at times via FX intervention to stop the move becoming too

AI Labs IPO Fever

June 1, 2026 12:58 PM UTC

·       Space X could get an initial good reception, but then go flat waiting for the Open AI and Anthropic IPO’s.  Space X is an AI enterprise play rather than space and xAI is lagging. This could mean a modest correction in the U.S. equity market at some stage in the summer, but then the

Turkish Economy Grew by a Below-Expectation 2.5% y/y in Q1

June 1, 2026 12:38 PM UTC

Bottom Line: The Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced Q1 2026 growth figures on June 1. Turkish economy expanded by a below-expectations 2.5% y/y in Q1. The main drag came from net trade as annual exports and imports shrank by 12.7% and 2%, respectively, while industrial sector contracted

Taiwan: Low Invasion Risk Post Trump Visit

May 29, 2026 11:05 AM UTC

·       The most likely option for China is to continue the air and naval grey zone warfare around Taiwan, combined with support for pro-China factions in Taiwan’s parliament to build pressure for reunification at some stage.  This stick and carrot approach is our baseline (Figure 1).  Wi

CHP Leadership Crisis Threatens Disinflation Trajectory in Turkiye

May 26, 2026 11:20 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Political tensions remain high in Turkiye after the 36th Civil Chamber of the Ankara Regional Court of Justice annulled the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) 2023 leadership congress on May 21, 2026. The ruling removed elected CHP chairman Ozgur Ozel from his leadership posit