Bank of Canada
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March 26, 2025
Bank of Canada Minutes from March 12 - Debate over the 25bps easing, agreement to proceed carefully
March 26, 2025 6:19 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada has released minutes from its March 12 meeting, and these show some debate about the meeting’s decision to ease by 25bps to 2.75% and agreement to proceed carefully with further changes to policy. A lot can happen before the BoC next meets on April 16, but these minutes suggest
March 20, 2025
March 18, 2025
Canada February CPI - Acceleration clearer as sales tax holiday ends
March 18, 2025 12:51 PM UTC
February Canadian CPI at 2.6% yr/yr from 1.9% in January is significantly stronger than expected, with the rise inflated by the mid-February expiry of a sales tax holiday that started in mid-December. This will lift March data further. The Bank of Canada’s core rates are also stronger, suggesting
March 12, 2025
Bank of Canada - With risks on both sides, timing matters
March 12, 2025 3:47 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada eased as expected by 25bps to 2.75%, a level it sees as neutral. Given massive uncertainty clear forward guidance is impossible but they made no attempt to hide the gravity of the problem, Governor Tiff Macklem stating Canada is facing a new crisis from which the economic impact c
March 07, 2025
Canada February Employment - Weather may explain this weak month, but tariff risks ahead
March 7, 2025 2:19 PM UTC
Canada’s February employment with a marginal rise of 1.1k has seen a pause after three straight strong months. With StatsCanada citing snowstorms as an issue not too much should be read into this subdued month, though trend is likely to slow in the months ahead as US tariffs are imposed.
March 05, 2025
Bank of Canada Preview for March 12: Tariff risks justify a further 25bps easing
March 5, 2025 5:51 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on March 12, and while the tariff picture is still anything but clear, we expect a 25bps easing to 2.75%. The economic damage done by the ongoing tension is already likely to be significant, and may become seriously so. Inflationary risks have increased, and the Canadian eco
Trump Latest Thinking
March 5, 2025 11:07 AM UTC
Bottom line: President Donald Trump signaled that he is committed to tariffs to raise revenue; bring production back to the U.S. and get fairer trade relations. This three part approach will likely shape implementation of further product and reciprocal tariffs from April. However, reports sugges
March 04, 2025
Trump Tariffs: Bad for The U.S. Worse For Canada
March 4, 2025 3:48 PM UTC
When Trump announced 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico in February, we put up a piece outlining the likely economic consequences, which became dated by the end of the day as Mexico and Canada won a one month delay in return for some concessions at the border. We are now recycling that story, with som
February 21, 2025
February 18, 2025
Canada January CPI - BoC core rates accelerate
February 18, 2025 1:53 PM UTC
January Canadian CPI at 1.9% yr/yr is in line with expectations, but up from 1.8% in December despite a sales tax holiday, with increases in the Bank of Canada’s three core rates suggesting some acceleration in underlying inflationary pressures.
February 12, 2025
Bank of Canada Minutes Back 25bps Easing, Less Clear on Potential Tariff Implications
February 12, 2025 7:09 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada has released minutes from its January 29 meeting, which show no signs that the decision to ease by 25bps saw much debate. Uncertainty due to tariff risks was seen as supporting the decision. However, should a trade war with the US be seen, the minutes show a more balanced view, co
February 07, 2025
Canada January Employment - Rate cuts helping, but tariff risk persists
February 7, 2025 2:40 PM UTC
Canada has delivered a strong employment report in January, with a 76k increase allowing unemployment to slip to 6.6% from 6.7%, though wages slipped to 3.7% yr/yr from 3.8%. This backs a Bank of Canada view expressed at January’s meeting that growth is responding to rate cuts without lifting infl
February 03, 2025
Trump Tariffs, or Not: Trying to Make Sense of a Policy Farce
February 3, 2025 11:46 PM UTC
So, after a weekend and a day of drama we are back to where we were on Friday morning. Forecast updates made on the imposition of tariffs will not be thrown in the trash can, but now will be held as an alternative should Trump decide to go ahead on March 1 after postponing them from February 1 (whic
Trump Tariffs: Bad for The U.S., to Canada and to Mexico
February 3, 2025 6:34 PM UTC
In announcing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as additional 10% tariffs on China, Trump exceeded the expectations of many, including ourselves. The situation is fluid with Mexico (but not yet Canada) receiving a one-month delay, but the risks of a lasting trade war need to be seriously con
January 31, 2025
Canada November GDP - A weak month with tariffs threatening
January 31, 2025 2:18 PM UTC
November Canadian GDP with a 0.2% decline was weaker than the -0.1% estimate made with October’s release, where the increase was unrevised at 0.3%, The preliminary estimate for December is for a rise of 0.2%, which if accurate would leave Q4 GDP near a 1.8% annualized estimate made by the Bank of
January 29, 2025
Bank of Canada eases by 25bps as expected, sees balanced risks if a trade war can be avoided
January 29, 2025 4:21 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada eased by 25bps to 3.0% as expected, and confirmed the ending of Quantitative Tightening, as had been outlined by Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle on January 16. The BoC has delivered some fairly optimistic forecasts, but these are made assuming an absence of tariffs, given that the B
January 16, 2025
January 13, 2025
Bank of Canada Preview for January 29: Easing to continue but more cautiously
January 13, 2025 5:23 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on January 29, and will make its decision a few hours before one is made by the FOMC. The BoC decision will be following two straight easings of 50bps, though minutes from the last meeting, on December 11, showed a debate between 25bps and 50bps, and that they expected a mor
January 10, 2025
Canada December Employment - Strong job growth but again flattered by the public sector
January 10, 2025 2:26 PM UTC
Canada has followed a healthy 50.5k increase in November employment with a substantially stronger 90.9k increase in December, though the acceleration in full time work to 57.5k from 54.2k was marginal. While some of the detail is less impressive, the data suggests the economy is gaining momentum, as
December 17, 2024
Canada November CPI - Subdued but little further progress on BoC core rates
December 17, 2024 2:06 PM UTC
November Canadian CPI is slightly weaker than expected overall at 1.9% from 2.0% yr/yr, and subdued on the month, though there was little further progress on the Bank of Canada’s core rates. This supports expectations that the BoC will ease further, but at a more gradual pace than the 50bps moves
December 16, 2024
Trump Tariff Threats Causing Policy Division in Canada
December 16, 2024 6:19 PM UTC
Trump’s tariff threats are being felt in Canadian politics, with Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s resignation, due to disagreements with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s plans to give the economy fiscal support, with Freeland preferring to “keep the powder dry” given the risks Canada fa
December 11, 2024
Bank of Canada delivers a second straight 50bps easing but sees a more gradual approach in 2025
December 11, 2024 4:29 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada has delivered a second straight 50bps easing, taking the rate to 3.25%, as largely expected. This puts the rate at the upper end of the 2.25-3.25% range the BoC sees as neutral, and Governor Tiff Macklem stated he now anticipates a more gradual approach to policy. We expect three
December 06, 2024
Canada November Employment - Strong job growth came largely in the public sector
December 6, 2024 2:29 PM UTC
Canada’s 50.5k increase in employment was stronger than expected in November, and fully explained by a 54.2k rise in full time work. However, with 45k of the new jobs created coming in the public sector the data is less impressive than it initially seems. With unemployment up and wages slower we c
December 02, 2024
Bank of Canada Preview for December 11: Another 50bps easing with tariffs threatened
December 2, 2024 2:16 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on December 11, and we expect a second straight 50bps easing, to 3.25%. While October’s inflation data was a mild disappointment the underlying picture looks subdued. While there are some signs the economy is starting to respond to lower rates, with Q3 GDP having disappoin
November 08, 2024
Canada October Employment - Details mostly positive, suggesting economy regaining momentum
November 8, 2024 1:53 PM UTC
While Canada’s 14.5k October rise in employment was not very impressive on the headline, the details are mostly positive and support a view that the Canadian economy is starting to regain momentum now that the Bank of Canada is easing monetary policy.
November 05, 2024
Bank of Canada Minutes Show Strong Consensus For Larger 50bps Move
November 5, 2024 6:58 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada has released minutes from its meeting on October 23, which accelerated the pace of easing to 50bps, to 3.75%, after three straight meetings in which the rate was eased by 25bps. While members considered another 25bps move, there was a strong consensus for taking a larger step.
October 31, 2024
Canada August GDP - Flat but September seen stronger
October 31, 2024 1:41 PM UTC
August Canadian GDP was unchanged with July revised down to 0.1% from 0.2%, but the preliminary estimate for September is for a stronger rise of 90.3%. This would leave Q3 up by around 1.0% annualized, below a recent 1.5% Bank of Canada estimate, though would suggest a stronger base to start Q4.
October 23, 2024
Updated Bank of Canada View: One More 50bps Easing in December, Three 25bps Moves in 2025
October 23, 2024 4:05 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada has accelerated the pace of easing, cutting by 50bps to 3.75% after three straight meetings when policy was eased by 25bps. The accelerated pace of easing was largely as expected and follows headline inflation data moving back to target. The BoC wants to lift the pace of GDP g
October 15, 2024
Bank of Canada Preview for October 23: Close call for 25bps rather than 50bps
October 15, 2024 6:18 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada’s October 23 decision looks a close call between a fourth straight 25bps easing to 4.0%, which is our expectation, or a 50bps move to 3.75%. The BoC can feel increasingly confident of core inflation returning to the 2.0% target in 2025, though tentative signs of growth regaini
Canada September CPI - Subdued, pause in BoC core rates downtrend likely to be temporary
October 15, 2024 12:59 PM UTC
September Canadian CPI is weaker than expected overall at 1.6% from 2.0% yr/yr, and subdued on the month, though there has been a lack of further progress on the Bank of Canada’s core rates, largely because year ago data dropping out was also subdued and below where trend then was. This leaves nex
October 11, 2024
Canada - BoC Q3 Business Outlook Survey suggests economy less weak, inflation not as strong
October 11, 2024 2:52 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada’s Q3 Business Outlook Survey shows activity looking less weak and inflation expectations less strong, which will be seen as good news. The report, particularly after today’s strong September employment report, suggests a 25bps easing is more likely than a 50bps move when the B
Canada September Employment - Stronger particularly in the details but wages slower
October 11, 2024 1:15 PM UTC
Following four straight fairly unimpressive reports, Canadian employment gained momentum in August with a stronger than expected 46.7k increase in employment that looks stronger still in its details, and a dip in unemployment to 6.5% from 6.6%. The data will make pleasant reading to the Bank of Cana
September 27, 2024
Canada July GDP - Stronger but Q3 unlikely to reach BoC's forecast
September 27, 2024 1:43 PM UTC
July Canadian GDP with a 0.2% increase exceeded an unchanged preliminary estimate made with June’s data though the preliminary estimate for August is unchanged. If September is unchanged too Q3 would rise by 1.0% annualized, well below a 2.8% Bank of Canada projection made in July. Reaching the Bo
September 24, 2024
September 17, 2024
Canada August CPI - Strengthens the case for accelerating the pace of BoC easing
September 17, 2024 1:12 PM UTC
August Canadian CPI looks clearly subdued, with the headline of 2.0% from 2.5% back on the Bank of Canada target and the BoC’s core rates all slowing and now averaging only a little above the target.
September 06, 2024
Canada August Employment - Detail mostly weak
September 6, 2024 1:43 PM UTC
Canada’s August employment report with a 22.1k increase is in line with expectations on the headline and an improvement from two straight near flat moths, but weak in the detail. The employment gain came fully on a 65.7k rise in part time employment with full time work falling by 43.6k, while unem
September 04, 2024
Dovish Tone from the Bank of Canada
September 4, 2024 5:18 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada eased rates by 25bps for a third straight meeting as expected, taking the rate to 4.25%. The tone of the statement and press conference was dovish, expressing concern that growth may fall short of their expectations while seeing some progress in still resilient shelter inflation.
August 30, 2024
Bank of Canada Preview for September 4: A Third Straight 25bps Easing
August 30, 2024 3:19 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on September 4 and a third straight easing, by 25bs to 4.25%, looks likely. This meeting will not see a quarterly Monetary Policy Report so the BoC will not update its forecasts from those made in July. However continued progress in reducing inflation and GDP growth, while i
August 09, 2024
Canada July Employment - Anther subdued headline, mixed detail
August 9, 2024 12:56 PM UTC
Canada’s July employment data is weak on the headline with a 2.8k decline but mixed in the detail with strong job growth from full time and public sector work, and unemployment unchanged at 6.4%. Wage growth slowed from an above trend June but remains quite strong. The data does not appear to be a
August 07, 2024
Bank of Canada Minutes expect further easing, if with no fixed timetable
August 7, 2024 6:19 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada has released minutes from its July 24 meeting that delivered a second straight 25bps easing. While risks on both sides are discussed, the tone is on balance dovish, with the BoC increasingly confident that ingredients for price stability were in place. There was a clear consensus
July 31, 2024
Canada May GDP - Q2 looking stronger than BoC forecasted
July 31, 2024 1:04 PM UTC
May Canadian GDP with a 0.2% increase exceeded a 0.1% preliminary estimate and extends a 0.3% rise in April. June’s preliminary estimate is for a 0.1% rise, which would leave Q2 up 2.2% annualized, above a 1.5% Bank of Canada estimate made with July’s Monetary Policy Report.
July 24, 2024
Bank of Canada Eases Again Given Increased Confidence in Inflation
July 24, 2024 4:17 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada has delivered a second straight 25bps easing to 4.50% and Governor Tiff Macklem stated there was a clear consensus behind the decision. The BoC’s tone was generally dovish despite looking for stronger GDP growth going forward. We now expect 25bps easings at each of the remaining
July 19, 2024
Bank of Canada Preview for July 24: A Pause Between Easings
July 19, 2024 4:30 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on July 24 and the decision will be close call between a second straight 25bps easing to follow the move seen on June 5 or leaving rates unchanged at 4.75%. We lean towards the latter option due to caution over inflation, though forecasts in the accompanying Monetary Policy