Bank of Canada Minutes Show Strong Consensus For Larger 50bps Move

November 5, 2024 6:58 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada has released minutes from its meeting on October 23, which accelerated the pace of easing to 50bps, to 3.75%, after three straight meetings in which the rate was eased by 25bps.  While members considered another 25bps move, there was a strong consensus for taking a larger step.

Canada August GDP - Flat but September seen stronger

October 31, 2024 1:41 PM UTC

August Canadian GDP was unchanged with July revised down to 0.1% from 0.2%, but the preliminary estimate for September is for a stronger rise of 90.3%. This would leave Q3 up by around 1.0% annualized, below a recent 1.5% Bank of Canada estimate, though would suggest a stronger base to start Q4.

Updated Bank of Canada View: One More 50bps Easing in December, Three 25bps Moves in 2025

October 23, 2024 4:05 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada has accelerated the pace of easing, cutting by 50bps to 3.75% after three straight meetings when policy was eased by 25bps.  The accelerated pace of easing was largely as expected and follows headline inflation data moving back to target.  The BoC wants to lift the pace of GDP g

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Took bigger step because inflation is back to target

October 23, 2024 2:03 PM UTC

Bank of Canada Governor Macklem notes on target inflation as a justification for accelerating the pace of easing to 50bps.

Bank of Canada Preview for October 23: Close call for 25bps rather than 50bps

October 15, 2024 6:18 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada’s October 23 decision looks a close call between a fourth straight 25bps easing to 4.0%, which is our expectation, or a 50bps move to 3.75%.  The BoC can feel increasingly confident of core inflation returning to the 2.0% target in 2025, though tentative signs of growth regaini

Canada September CPI - Subdued, pause in BoC core rates downtrend likely to be temporary

October 15, 2024 12:59 PM UTC

September Canadian CPI is weaker than expected overall at 1.6% from 2.0% yr/yr, and subdued on the month, though there has been a lack of further progress on the Bank of Canada’s core rates, largely because year ago data dropping out was also subdued and below where trend then was. This leaves nex

Canada July GDP - Stronger but Q3 unlikely to reach BoC's forecast

September 27, 2024 1:43 PM UTC

July Canadian GDP with a 0.2% increase exceeded an unchanged preliminary estimate made with June’s data though the preliminary estimate for August is unchanged. If September is unchanged too Q3 would rise by 1.0% annualized, well below a 2.8% Bank of Canada projection made in July. Reaching the Bo

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Seeking stronger economic growth, slower core inflation

September 24, 2024 5:10 PM UTC

Canada August CPI - Strengthens the case for accelerating the pace of BoC easing

September 17, 2024 1:12 PM UTC

August Canadian CPI looks clearly subdued, with the headline of 2.0% from 2.5% back on the Bank of Canada target and the BoC’s core rates all slowing and now averaging only a little above the target. 

Canada August Employment - Detail mostly weak

September 6, 2024 1:43 PM UTC

Canada’s August employment report with a 22.1k increase is in line with expectations on the headline and an improvement from two straight near flat moths, but weak in the detail. The employment gain came fully on a 65.7k rise in part time employment with full time work falling by 43.6k, while unem

Dovish Tone from the Bank of Canada

September 4, 2024 5:18 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada eased rates by 25bps for a third straight meeting as expected, taking the rate to 4.25%. The tone of the statement and press conference was dovish, expressing concern that growth may fall short of their expectations while seeing some progress in still resilient shelter inflation.

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Reasonable to expect further rate cuts if inflation continues to ease

September 4, 2024 2:06 PM UTC

Bank of Canada Preview for September 4: A Third Straight 25bps Easing

August 30, 2024 3:19 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on September 4 and a third straight easing, by 25bs to 4.25%, looks likely. This meeting will not see a quarterly Monetary Policy Report so the BoC will not update its forecasts from those made in July. However continued progress in reducing inflation and GDP growth, while i

Canada July Employment - Anther subdued headline, mixed detail

August 9, 2024 12:56 PM UTC

Canada’s July employment data is weak on the headline with a 2.8k decline but mixed in the detail with strong job growth from full time and public sector work, and unemployment unchanged at 6.4%. Wage growth slowed from an above trend June but remains quite strong. The data does not appear to be a

Bank of Canada Minutes expect further easing, if with no fixed timetable

August 7, 2024 6:19 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada has released minutes from its July 24 meeting that delivered a second straight 25bps easing. While risks on both sides are discussed, the tone is on balance dovish, with the BoC increasingly confident that ingredients for price stability were in place. There was a clear consensus

Canada May GDP - Q2 looking stronger than BoC forecasted

July 31, 2024 1:04 PM UTC

May Canadian GDP with a 0.2% increase exceeded a 0.1% preliminary estimate and extends a 0.3% rise in April. June’s preliminary estimate is for a 0.1% rise, which would leave Q2 up 2.2% annualized, above a 1.5% Bank of Canada estimate made with July’s Monetary Policy Report.

Bank of Canada Eases Again Given Increased Confidence in Inflation

July 24, 2024 4:17 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada has delivered a second straight 25bps easing to 4.50% and Governor Tiff Macklem stated there was a clear consensus behind the decision. The BoC’s tone was generally dovish despite looking for stronger GDP growth going forward. We now expect 25bps easings at each of the remaining

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Increasingly confident ingredients to bring inflation back to target in place

July 24, 2024 2:35 PM UTC

Bank of Canada Preview for July 24: A Pause Between Easings

July 19, 2024 4:30 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on July 24 and the decision will be close call between a second straight 25bps easing to follow the move seen on June 5 or leaving rates unchanged at 4.75%. We lean towards the latter option due to caution over inflation, though forecasts in the accompanying Monetary Policy

Canada June CPI - Subdued but probably not quite enough for a July easing

July 16, 2024 1:17 PM UTC

June’s Canadian CPI at 2.7% yr/yr from 2.9% has reversed an upside surprise seen in May and details suggest a generally subdued underlying picture. The data might not be quite soft enough for the Bank of Canada to deliver a second straight easing when it meets on July 24, though the decision will

Canada - BoC Q2 Business Outlook Survey shows little change in views on economy or inflation

July 15, 2024 2:53 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada’s Q2 Business Outlook Survey is not much changed either in its economic view or expectations of inflation. That suggests the BoC might be cautious about delivering a second straight easing on July 24, though tomorrow’s June CPI will be watched closely.

Canada April GDP - Q2 heading for a respectable gain

June 28, 2024 1:20 PM UTC

April Canadian GDP with a 0.3% ruse was in line with expectations and the preliminary estimate made with March’s data. The preliminary estimate for May is a 0.1% increase. If May rises by 0.1% and June is flat Q2 would rise by 1.8% annualized, slightly above a 1.5% forecast that the BoC made in Ap

Canada May CPI - A strong month after five straight subdued ones

June 25, 2024 12:51 PM UTC

May’s Canadian CPI at 2.9% yr/yr from 2.7% has surprised on the upside and while the BoC will have June CPI data too to look at before its next meeting on July 24 this data makes a second straight easing at that meeting less likely.

Bank of Canada Eases by 25bps on Improved Inflation Picture

June 5, 2024 4:49 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada delivered a 25bps easing to 4.75% as expected and the tone of the statement and particularly the press conference was somewhat dovish, giving some detail on why it is pleased with progress on inflation. However easing at each of the remaining four meetings this year looks unlikely

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Reasonable to expect further cuts, decisions meeting by meeting

June 5, 2024 2:08 PM UTC

Bank of Canada to Deliver a Cautious 25bps Easing on June 5

May 31, 2024 4:34 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on June 5 and we believe they will see recent inflationary data as having delivered sufficient progress to justify a 25bps easing, to 4.75%. The statement will however be careful to state that inflation remains too high and give no strong signals for future moves, which will

Canada April CPI - Continued progress in the BoC core rates

May 21, 2024 12:56 PM UTC

April’s Canadian CPI at 2.7% yr/yr from 2.9% is in line with market expectations and shows subdued data on the month and continued progress in reducing the Bank of Canada’s core rates. The headline yr/yr pace is the lowest since March 2021. The data should sustain hopes for a June BoC easing.

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Canadian Financial System Remains Resilient

May 9, 2024 2:21 PM UTC

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Getting closer to easing

May 1, 2024 8:41 PM UTC

Canada February GDP - Q1 looking less positive than previously projected

April 30, 2024 1:20 PM UTC

February Canadian GDP saw a second straight rise, but at 0.2% was below the 0.4% projected with January’s data and January was revised down to a 0.5% increase from 0.6%. The advance estimate for March is unchanged, which would leave a 0.6% rise (2.5% annualized) in Q1.

Bank of Canada Minutes Look to Gradual Easing, Divided on When to Start

April 24, 2024 6:44 PM UTC

Bank of Canada minutes from the April 10 meeting confirm a greater confidence on inflation falling, though there is disagreement within the Governing Council over when policy easing will become appropriate. There was agreement that easing would probably be gradual given the risks to the outlook and

Bank of Canada Sees Progress in Reducing Inflation, June Easing Possible

April 10, 2024 3:37 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada made no policy changes with rates left at 5.0% and Quantitative Tightening continuing as expected. However the tone of the statement is significantly more optimistic on inflation, focusing more on this than recent signs of stronger activity. The BoC still needs to see progress on

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Seeing what we want to see, need to see it for longer

April 10, 2024 2:07 PM UTC

Bank of Canada to Leave Rates Unchanged on April 10, Noting Stronger GDP and Slower CPI

April 2, 2024 5:45 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on April 10 and no change in rates from the current 5.0% is likely. The BoC is likely to revise near term forecasts for GDP higher and CPI lower, and leave its options open for easing at future meetings, dependent on incoming data, without giving any clear signals on timing.

Canada - BoC Q1 Business Outlook Survey shows some easing in inflation expectations

April 1, 2024 2:53 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada’s Q1 business outlook survey shows some easing of inflation expectations while being mostly subdued on the economic picture. The BoC looks unlikely to ease on April 10 with Q1 GDP looking set to exceed expectations, but this survey helps to maintain hope that by June enough prog

Canada January GDP - Q1 looking much stronger than BoC had expected

March 28, 2024 1:31 PM UTC

Not only did January Canadian GDP with a 0.6% rise exceed the preliminary 0.4% estimate, in data assisted by the end of a strike, the advance estimate for February is strong too with a rise of 0.4%. If that proves correct even an unchanged March would leave Q1 up by 3.5% annualized, well above the B

Canada: BoC's Rogers - Weak Canadian productivity an emergency

March 26, 2024 12:19 PM UTC

Today's comments from Senior BoC Deputy Governor Rogers help explain why Canada and the US have similar inflation pictures while the US economy is sharply outperforming.

Canada: BoC's Gravelle - Sees QT continuing into 2025

March 21, 2024 1:55 PM UTC

Today's comments from BoC Deputy Governor Gravelle on QT, like yesterday's minutes, show little sign of the BoC moving in a dovish direction.

Canada February CPI slows, BoC's Gravelle to speak on QT on Thursday

March 19, 2024 1:23 PM UTC

February’s Canadian CPI has seen an unexpected fall to 2.8% yr/yr from 2.9% in January and 3.4% in December, putting the series at its lowest since March 2021. While the Bank of Canada cannot claim victory yet, the data will provide encouragement that inflationary pressures are now fading.  A spe

Bank of Canada Keeps Markets Waiting

March 6, 2024 6:49 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada left both rates (at 5.0%) and its forward guidance unchanged in its latest statement. A rate cut at the next meeting in April now looks unlikely, and while we continue to project a move in June it is now a close call between June and July for when the BoC starts to cut rates. 

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Still too early to ease policy

March 6, 2024 3:04 PM UTC

Bank of Canada to Leave Rates Unchanged on March 6, With a Cautious Statement

February 29, 2024 6:41 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on March 6 and while any fine tuning to the statement is more likely to be dovish than hawkish, we doubt that views have changed much at the BoC since its last meeting on January 24. We expect rates to be left unchanged at 5.0% with few hints that easing is close to be given

Bank of Canada Minutes Detail Inflationary Concerns

February 7, 2024 7:39 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada’s minutes from January 24 show significant concern about the persistence of inflation, despite seeing the economy as having moved into excess supply due to slowing demand. This leaves the BoC unsure about when to cut rates, though further increases now look unlikely.

Canada: BoC's Macklem - Shelter biggest contributor to above target inflation

February 6, 2024 6:12 PM UTC

Canada November GDP - Q4 looking stronger than BoC projected

January 31, 2024 2:06 PM UTC

November Canadian GDP with a rise of 0.2% saw momentum pick up after there straight flat outcomes which flowed two straight negatives. The preliminary estimate for December is stronger still at 0.3%, which suggests Q4 will come in stronger than a flat forecast from the BoC.