Canada March Employment - Consistent message of weakness
Canada’s March employment with a 32.6k decline is the steepest fall since a brief plunge in the lockdowns of January 2022 and highlights the recessionary risks posed by US tariffs. Unemployment rose to 6.7% from 6.6% while wage growth slowed significantly, to 3.5% from 4.0%.
While Canadian employment data is volatile, looking at the details of the report makes it look even worse. Full time work fell by 62.0k while part time rose by 29.5k. There was a sharp 47.8k fall in private sector employment while the public sector fell by 2.8k, partially offset by a rise of 18k in self-employment.
By sector job losses were led by a 28.5k fall in wholesale and retail, and a late Easter may have contributed here, more than fully explaining a 20.9k fall in services. Goods fell by 11.7k, with manufacturing down by 7.1k and construction down by 3.8k.
Even with a subdued 3.5k rise in the labor force unemployment edged up to 6.7% after two months at 6.6%, suggesting the right signs the economy has recently been showing are fading as tariffs arrive. The average hourly wage of permanent workers at 3.5% is significantly down from 4.0% in February, adding to a consistent message of weakness in the report.
