India’s Union FY27 Budget: A Pragmatic Blueprint That Prioritises Stability over Stimulus

February 9, 2026 7:47 AM UTC

India’s 2026–27 Union Budget opts for prudence over populism, targeting a fiscal deficit of 4.3% of GDP and boosting capital expenditure by 11.5%. The government shifts focus to services-led job creation, defence modernisation, and water infrastructure while trimming subsidies, while tax tweaks

RBI Holds Rates Steady as Growth Proves Durable

February 6, 2026 10:52 AM UTC

The Reserve Bank of India has opted for composure holding rates at 5.25% as it weighs past easing, a benign inflation profile, and the rupee’s fragility in volatile global conditions. This is a pause with options, not a pivot. 

Indonesia CPI Review: Inflation Peaks on Base Effects, Not Demand

February 3, 2026 6:52 AM UTC

The January inflation spike is more noise than signal, driven by base effects, not a demand surge. With core pressures steady and the rupiah in focus, BI remains on a measured path. Easing remains likely in H1.

India MPC Preview: Inflation Low, Rupee Lower: Why RBI May Keep Rates on Ice

February 3, 2026 6:36 AM UTC

The RBI is expected to hold rates at 5.25%, resisting pressure for further easing. With inflation near historic lows but the rupee under strain and private investment still muted, policy will focus on anchoring stability, managing liquidity, and allowing past cuts to percolate. Further accommodation

India–EU Tie-Up Redraws Trade Lines

January 27, 2026 5:40 AM UTC

The India–EU FTA is more than a trade deal, it is a strategic alignment, forged in an era of global fragmentation. It offers India stable access to a wealthy, rules-based market, while providing Europe a direct foothold in Asia’s growth engine. In a world of transactional superpowers, it appears

RBI Stresses Domestic Resilience as Global Volatility Mounts

January 26, 2026 4:51 PM UTC

The RBI’s latest review highlights a domestic economy operating with momentum and reform tailwinds, but increasingly exposed to global turbulence. Its bet is that deeper financial markets, strong demand, and a shift towards diversified trade can provide the resilience needed to stay on course. In

Rate Hold Masks Deeper Questions on BI’s Policy Independence

January 26, 2026 4:35 PM UTC

Bank Indonesia held rates in November as expected, prioritising rupiah and inflation stability over premature easing. While a December cut remains likely—especially if the Fed turns dovish—BI has made clear it will move only under the right conditions.

Rupee Volatility Tests RBI, But Buffers Remain Strong

January 16, 2026 1:12 PM UTC

India’s forex reserves are under pressure from capital outflows and rupee weakness, but the system remains resilient. The RBI has room to manage volatility, backed by strong reserve buffers. 

India CPI Review: December CPI Signals End of Disinflation Cycle

January 13, 2026 8:50 AM UTC

December’s CPI print reinforces that the inflation trough is behind us. While headline inflation remains below target, a sharp rebound in core driven by gold and jewellery could limit the RBI’s room for manoeuvre in early 2026. With a new CPI series incoming, the next few months will test the cr

India CPI Preview: Inflation Set to Rise in December

January 9, 2026 6:45 AM UTC

December’s CPI print is set to mark the end of India’s disinflation cycle. The RBI now has policy space, but the window may narrow fast as base effects fade and core inflation steadies. CPI is expected to trend up to 1.1% y/y in December. 

Markets 2026

January 6, 2026 9:58 AM UTC

•    For financial markets, the muddle through for global economics and policy provides support for risk assets, combined with solid earnings prospects from some of the magnificent 7.  However, U.S. equities are once again significantly overvalued and we look for a 5-10% correction in 2026, b

Outlook Overview: Turbulent Times

December 17, 2025 7:44 AM UTC

·        The U.S. slowdown remains in focus as the lagged effects of President Trump’s tariff increases continues to feedthrough, though our baseline is for a 2026 soft-landing.  The Supreme court will likely rule against part of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, which will create short-term

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Managing Slower Growth Without Losing the Cycle

December 16, 2025 2:43 PM UTC

·       Asia’s 2026 growth is normalizing, not weakening, though the growth outlook reflects resilience under mounting strain rather than acceleration. Larger investment-led economies such as India and Malaysia are sustaining momentum through public capex, infrastructure pipelines, and indu

China Outlook: Headwinds Get Stronger

December 11, 2025 10:30 AM UTC

·        Private domestic demand remains modest, with consumption ranging from modest to moderate (slowed by the housing wealth hit and soft jobs/wage growth) and investment further impacted by the ongoing adverse drag of the residential property bust. China’s authorities prefer a long and

Americas First: New National Security Strategy

December 9, 2025 8:40 AM UTC

·       The new NSS at one level reads like a Trump/MAGA current list of topics and desires, that may not translate into policy or a major shift of military assets.  Trump has blown hot and cold on Europe and China over the past 12 months and could shift again.  Nevertheless, the NSS does r

RBI Cuts Repo Rate to 5.25% as Inflation Hits Record Lows

December 5, 2025 4:28 PM UTC

The RBI’s December cut marks a decisive shift toward pro-growth policy at a moment of exceptionally low inflation. With the economy outperforming and price pressures collapsing, the central bank is signalling confidence—but the trajectory of the rupee and the uncertainty of US trade policy remai

Asia Country Risk Ratings

December 3, 2025 11:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Asia countries including China, India, Indonesia, Taiwan and Phillipines.  

Indonesia’s Inflation Eases in November, Strengthening Case for Prolonged Policy Hold

December 1, 2025 8:14 AM UTC

Indonesia’s November CPI print reinforces a narrative of stability—subdued price pressures, anchored core inflation and a central bank in no rush to move. With inflation well within target and external risks still elevated, Bank Indonesia has the cover it needs to extend its policy pause, keepin

India GDP Review: India’s Economy Surges 8.2% in Q2

December 1, 2025 7:43 AM UTC

India’s GDP grew 8.2% in Q2 FY26, far exceeding market and RBI expectations and marking its strongest performance in six quarters. The expansion was powered by manufacturing, services and a sharp rebound in consumption, amplified by a favourable deflator and GST rate cuts. With first-half growth n

Bank Indonesia Holds Rates at 4.75%; December Cut Likely

November 24, 2025 11:17 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia held rates in November as expected, prioritising rupiah and inflation stability over premature easing. While a December cut remains likely—especially if the Fed turns dovish—BI has made clear it will move only under the right conditions.

U.S. Asset Inflows After April’s Trump Tariffs

November 21, 2025 8:00 AM UTC

·       Net foreign portfolio inflows have not been hurt by Trump’s April tariff drama, with the AI and tech boom attracting new equity inflows.  Flows could become more volatile with a U.S. equity bear market or recession, but these are modest risk alternative scenarios rather than high r

Markets 2026

November 18, 2025 10:30 AM UTC

·        The Fed, ECB and BOE will likely drive further 10-2yr government bond yield curve steepening, with 10yr Bund yields rising due to ECB QT and German fiscal expansion. 10yr JGB yields are set to surge through 2%, as BOJ QT remains excessive and underestimated.  The BOJ could partiall

India CPI Review: Inflation Cools to Historic Lows

November 17, 2025 8:04 AM UTC

India’s October inflation print confirms a rare moment of macro alignment—low inflation, solid growth, and room for monetary easing. The RBI now faces a high-conviction window to cut rates in December, but must stay vigilant against creeping food price risks as FY26 progresses.

India’s Fiscal Deficit Swells, Yet 4.4% Target Still Within Reach

November 7, 2025 7:30 PM UTC

India’s fiscal performance in H1 reflects a calculated front-loading of capex to support growth, while record non-tax revenues offer a buffer. Execution risks remain in H2, but the government appears confident in meeting its 4.4% deficit target without derailing market or reform momentum.

Breakthrough in Sight: India and US Move Towards Bilateral Trade Agreement

October 30, 2025 6:05 AM UTC

The India–US trade deal now seems within reach after months of deadlock, with both sides signalling convergence on major issues. For Indian exporters, particularly in textiles, marine products, and engineering goods, the removal of US tariffs would provide a timely boost amid global demand uncerta

Indonesia CPI Preview: CPI to edge up in October

October 29, 2025 1:18 PM UTC

Indonesia’s inflation rate is set to edge up in October, but the uptick should remain well within the central bank’s comfort zone. For now, BI is expected to stay on hold in its next policy meeting, focusing instead on growth stability and external risks.

India’s Core Sector Growth Slows to 3%: Infrastructure Holds Firm, Energy Falters

October 28, 2025 6:14 AM UTC

India’s September core sector data encapsulates a pivotal juncture for the economy — resilient infrastructure activity offset by energy vulnerability. Slowing core output implies lower industrial output growth over Q2-FY26.

Bank Indonesia Holds Rates at 4.75% Amid Global Uncertainty:

October 27, 2025 11:54 AM UTC

BI opted to hold its interest rate steady at 4.75% after trimming it in a surprise in September. BI will now wait to see the transmission of earlier rate cuts before proceeding with further action. We expect a steady policy rate going into 2026. 

India Accelerates Mineral Diplomacy as Beijing Tightens Export Controls

October 17, 2025 7:31 AM UTC

China’s expanded export curbs on rare earths have pushed India to fast-track its critical minerals strategy — combining domestic stockpiles, new mining auctions, and global supply alliances. New Delhi’s plan hinges on building refining capacity and securing long-term deals in Latin America, Af

Oil, Tariffs, and Technology: Inside India–US Trade Negotiations

October 17, 2025 6:27 AM UTC

India and the US are nearing the first phase of a long-awaited Bilateral Trade Agreement, with negotiations in Washington focusing on tariffs, digital standards, and supply-chain resilience.Energy remains the flashpoint, as Washington’s 50% duties tied to India’s Russian oil imports complicate p

Indonesia’s 2026 Budget: Populist Spending Meets Fiscal Strain

October 16, 2025 6:17 AM UTC

Indonesia’s 2026 budget marks President Prabowo Subianto’s first full fiscal blueprint—anchored in expansive social spending and a sharp 30% rise in defence outlays, while sidelining his predecessor’s infrastructure push. With revenue targets based on optimistic assumptions and growth foreca

India CPI Review: CPI at Eight-Year Low: Disinflation Deepens, RBI Seen Easing in December

October 14, 2025 7:21 AM UTC

India’s retail inflation eased to 1.54% in September — the lowest in nearly eight years — driven by steep declines in food and fuel prices. With CPI now well below the RBI’s 2–6% tolerance band and GST cuts reinforcing disinflation, a December rate cut looks increasingly likely. Core infla

RBI Holds Rates, Balances Growth Optimism with Global Risks

October 2, 2025 6:09 AM UTC

The RBI held the repo rate at 5.5% in its October review, keeping policy neutral after 100 bps of cuts earlier this year. Inflation was sharply revised down to 2.6% in FY26, while growth was upgraded to 6.8%, reflecting resilient domestic demand. The decision reflects a strategy of stability—pausi

RBI Likely to Hold Rates, Watchful of Tariffs and Festive Demand

September 29, 2025 6:57 AM UTC

The RBI is expected to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.5% in its October review, pausing after three consecutive cuts earlier this year. With inflation undershooting and GST rationalisation set to push CPI lower, policymakers see little need for immediate action. The central bank will instead wait

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Balancing Moderation with Resilience

September 23, 2025 11:22 AM UTC

·       Asia’s growth trajectory in 2026 reflects regional resilience under strain. Investment-led economies like India and Malaysia are sustaining momentum via infrastructure push, public capex, and digital industrial policy, while Indonesia’s outlook is clouded by fiscal recalibration a

Outlook Overview: Into 2026

September 23, 2025 8:25 AM UTC

·       The critical question is how much the U.S. economy is slowing down with the feedthrough of President Donald Trump’s tariffs to boost inflation and restrain GDP growth, with the effective rate currently around 17% on U.S. imports. Though semiconductor tariffs are likely, the bulk of

China Outlook: Headwinds into 2026?

September 19, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

•    Overall, net exports contribution to GDP growth should be tempered in H2 2025, as 30% tariffs bite more progressively and other countries more closely monitor the redirection of China’s exports.  A trade deal with the U.S. remains our baseline, which should reduce tariffs to around 20%

New GST Slabs to Boost Demand as India Faces 50% US Tariffs

September 8, 2025 6:45 AM UTC

India’s landmark GST 2.0 reform, effective 22 September 2025, simplifies slabs to 5% and 18%, with a 40% rate for sin goods. By easing prices on essentials and mid-market products, the move aims to boost demand and partially offset the drag from US tariffs of 50% on Indian exports. While household

Modi in China: Eurasian Diplomacy Meets US Tariff Tensions

September 8, 2025 6:02 AM UTC

Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Tianjin for the SCO Summit underscored India’s pursuit of strategic autonomy—engaging China and Russia while reaffirming ties with the US. Publicly, India backed Eurasian financial and connectivity initiatives, while tactically reopening dialogue with Beijing. Fo

Asia Country Risk Ratings

September 4, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Asia countries including China, India, Indonesia, Taiwan and Phillipines.  

Protests Return to Jakarta—No Threat to Regime, But Signal to Watch

September 2, 2025 12:41 PM UTC

Indonesia’s recent protests are not just about housing allowances—they reflect deeper disillusionment with elite politics. The government may contain unrest in the short term, but the structural issues driving dissent will persist. For businesses and investors, expect periodic social volatility,

India GDP Review: Public Spending and Services Lift India’s Growth to Five-Quarter High

September 2, 2025 6:45 AM UTC

India’s economy grew 7.8% y/y in Q1 FY25, beating expectations. Strong gains in construction, services, and agriculture underpinned the recovery, while private consumption and investment remained subdued. However, sustaining momentum in FY26 will hinge on broad-based demand and improving global co

Indonesia’s August CPI Eases

September 2, 2025 6:27 AM UTC

Inflation is well behaved, food remains a wildcard, and core pressures are easing—giving Bank Indonesia continued policy flexibility as it weighs growth support against global uncertainty.

India GDP Preview: Q1FY26 Growth - Services Surge, Industry Slows: India’s Uneven Q1 Recovery

August 29, 2025 4:49 AM UTC

India’s economy likely grew 6.6% yr/yr in Q1 FY26, down from 7.4% in the previous quarter, as weak private investment and soft industrial output offset robust government spending. Growth was buoyed by strong public capex and resilient services, while manufacturing lagged. Full-year GDP is forecast