Indonesia’s Trade Surplus Widens Sharply in H1 2025 Despite Tariff Headwinds
Indonesia’s June trade numbers reflect a strong first-half export performance, bolstered by frontloading ahead of US tariffs. The 62-month surplus streak highlights ongoing resilience, but softer trade momentum in H2 is anticipated as the tariff impact begins to filter through.
Indonesia posted a robust USD 4.1bn goods trade surplus in June 2025—up 62.9% yr/yr—underscoring the strength of its external sector amid global uncertainties. The surge was driven by a strong rise in non-oil exports, even as oil exports weakened and imports climbed at a slower pace. While the monthly surplus was slightly lower than in May, cumulative data show a resilient trade performance.
H1 2025 Trends: Frontloading Exports Before US Tariffs
In the first half of 2025, Indonesia’s total goods trade surplus reached USD 19.5bn, a significant 25% increase over the USD 15.6bn recorded during the same period in 2024. The data suggest that exporters frontloaded shipments, particularly to the US, ahead of incoming tariffs. Non-oil exports to the US jumped 20.7% yr/yr to USD 14.8bn, helping total exports rise 8.0% yr/yr to USD 135.4bn.
Shipments of vegetable oils, electrical machinery, base metals, and semiconductors contributed to the robust showing. Non-oil and gas exports were up 9% yr/yr, more than offsetting an 11% decline in oil and gas exports—reflecting soft global crude prices.
The US remained the top export destination in H1 2025, followed by India and the Philippines. By contrast, on the import side, goods from China, Australia, and Brazil dominated the inflows, with capital goods driving the increase. Total imports rose 5.7% yr/yr to USD 115.9bn, led by purchases of machinery and production equipment, suggesting continued private sector investment activity.
Outlook: Trade Momentum at Risk as Tariffs Take Effect
With the US set to implement a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods from August—down from the originally proposed 32%—some pressure on non-oil exports is expected in H2 2025. The frontloading effect that boosted H1 figures may fade, particularly if global demand remains soft or geopolitical trade tensions escalate.
That said, Indonesia’s long-standing trade surplus, now in its 62nd consecutive month, provides a critical buffer for the economy. The stable surplus should help support the rupiah and create space for Bank Indonesia to pursue further monetary easing if domestic demand slows.