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October 02, 2024
Markets: Rate Cuts or Geopolitics?
October 2, 2024 9:36 AM UTC
Israel will likely counteract Iran, which will prompt a further missile attack by Iran. However, our bias remains that Israel main aim is to have a buffer zone in southern Lebanon up to the Latani river and not fight a prolonged war with Iran. This limits the economic fallout globally and on oil
September 27, 2024
September 25, 2024
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts But How Far?
September 25, 2024 7:30 AM UTC
· The U.S. economy is slowing, with the critical question being whether this is a soft or harder landing. Our broad analysis leaves us inclined to the soft landing view into 2025, though we shall watch real sector data closely over the next 3-6 months to check the trajectory. Else
September 23, 2024
Commodities Outlook: Fragile Foundations
September 23, 2024 9:30 AM UTC
Oil prices in the short to medium term will be shaped by demand in China and the U.S. In particular, we expect weak data in China to continue weighting on oil prices in Q4 2024, with limited upside risks from supply-side developments. In 2025, demand growth will likely remain slow in the first half,
September 15, 2024
September 27 Outlook Webinar: Rate Cuts But How Far?
September 15, 2024 11:17 AM UTC
Uncertainty about whether the U.S. economy will have a soft or hard landing is growing as the market approaches Q4. This is shaping the debate regarding the scale of easing through the remainder of 2024 and 2025 by the Fed. European easing is underway, but how much further will central ba
Sep 27 Outlook Webinar: Rate Cuts But How Far?
September 15, 2024 10:30 AM UTC
Uncertainty about whether the U.S. economy will have a soft or hard landing is growing as the market approaches Q4. This is shaping the debate regarding the scale of easing through the remainder of 2024 and 2025 by the Fed. European easing is underway, but how much further will central ba
July 23, 2024
The Aussie Chapter 5: Kiwi, a tale of two cities
July 23, 2024 12:00 AM UTC
In "The Aussie", we will look into the "well-known "correlation among the Aussie and well-known benchmark to give our readers a closer look towards factors that have been affecting the movement of the Australian Dollar. In Chapter 4, we will look into the performance of the Aussie relative to the Ki
June 26, 2024
June 25, 2024
Outlook Overview: Cyclical and Structural Forces
June 25, 2024 10:15 AM UTC
• The global economy is showing signs of healing, as inflation comes back towards targets and growth recovers momentum in some economies. Nevertheless, the cyclical headwind of lagged monetary tightening remains in DM countries, and will likely be one of the forces slowing the U.S. economy
June 20, 2024
Commodities Outlook: Fundamentals Kick In
June 20, 2024 10:00 AM UTC
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is projected to end 2024 at USD82. We anticipate that the voluntary cuts introduced in November 2023 will likely be reversed during H1 2025 and not in Q4 2024, as initially communicated by OPEC+. The scenario is built on our expectation that demand will not increase suf
May 21, 2024
The Aussie Chapter 4: Chinese Proxy
May 21, 2024 12:00 AM UTC
In "The Aussie", we will look into the "well-known "correlation among the Aussie and well-known benchmark to give our readers a closer look towards factors that have been affecting the movement of the Australian Dollar. In Chapter 4, we will look into the performance of the Aussie relative to the Ch
May 14, 2024
The Aussie Chapter 3: Risk
May 14, 2024 12:00 AM UTC
In "The Aussie", we will look into the "well-known "correlation among the Aussie and well-known benchmark to give our readers a closer look towards factors that have been affecting the movement of the Australian Dollar. In Chapter 3, we will look into the performance of the Aussie against major equi
April 26, 2024
Headwinds To Long-term Global Growth
April 26, 2024 9:30 AM UTC
Bottom line: While much focus is on the cyclical economic position to determine 2024 monetary policy prospects, the 2025-28 structural growth trajectory differs to the pre 2020 GDP trajectory for major economies. While global fragmentation has a role to play, aging populations are already having a
April 17, 2024
Markets: Fed Rather Than Middle East Worries
April 17, 2024 12:34 PM UTC
Global markets are being driven by a scale back in Fed easing expectations and we see a 5-10% U.S. equity market correction being underway. However, with the market now only discounting one 25bps Fed cut in 2024, any downside surprises on U.S. growth or better controlled monthly inflation numbers
April 03, 2024
April 02, 2024
Asset Allocation: Pausing for Breath
April 2, 2024 9:00 AM UTC
Into Q2, data and policy (actual and perceived) will dominate DM markets. The ECB will likely take the spotlight with a 25bps cut on June 7, as the Fed face a better growth/more fiscal policy expansion and a tighter labor market than the EZ but also with a better productivity backdrop and outlook to
March 27, 2024
March 25, 2024
March 11, 2024
The Aussie Chapter 2: Commodities
March 11, 2024 12:00 AM UTC
In "The Aussie", we will look into the "well-known "correlation among the Aussie and well-known benchmark to give our readers a closer look towards factors that have been affecting the movement of the Australian Dollar. In Chapter 2, we will look into the performance of the Aussie against commoditie
February 26, 2024
The Aussie Chapter 1: Interest Rate and Yields
February 26, 2024 4:27 AM UTC
The Australian Dollar ,"Aussie", has been referred as the commodity currency, risk currency, proxy Yuan by market participants who see correlation between the corresponding benchmark and the Aussie. While they all have sounded reasons to support their perspective, the level of correlation seems to b
January 15, 2024
Taiwan: DPP Weaker than 2020
January 15, 2024 8:49 AM UTC
The DPP have won the Taiwan presidential election. However, the DPP has lost its majority in parliament, while the 3rd party (Taiwan People Party (TPP) are signalling they will not form a coalition with (Kuomintang) KTT. This will restrain the DPP. However, China will still likely show its dis
January 11, 2024
Webinar Recording December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
January 11, 2024 8:22 AM UTC
You can now access the webinar for the December Outlook here.
To read the individual chapters please see the weblink below.
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
China Outloo
January 09, 2024
Shipping Freight Cost Jump and Inflation – Some Perspectives
January 9, 2024 2:24 PM UTC
Figure 1: Freight Cost Surge in Perspective
Source: DataStream
How Long?
Houthi rebels have been attacking some ships in the Red Sea in recent weeks. The key question is how long this will last? One line of thinking is that the Houthi attacks are part of Iran axis of resistance alongside attacks
January 08, 2024
Charting our Views December Outlook
January 8, 2024 9:05 AM UTC
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
Economic Scenarios
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
Brazil Policy Rate and CPI Inflation (YoY, %)
China Outlook: Headwinds To China Growth (here)
Japan Outlook: Normalizing
January 03, 2024
Taiwan: Gray Warfare After A Mixed Election
January 3, 2024 11:02 AM UTC
With the Taiwan elections on January 13 expected to re-elect the DPP, and the U.S. focused on Ukraine and Middle East, how will the Taiwan situation develop after the election and in the coming years?
Figure 1: Taiwan Scenarios for the Next 5 Years
Source: Continuum Economics
More Gray W
January 02, 2024
December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
January 2, 2024 9:53 AM UTC
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
China Outlook: Headwinds To China Growth (here)
Japan Outlook: Normalizing Monetary Policy Soon (here)
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook:
December 19, 2023
December 18, 2023
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024
December 18, 2023 3:42 PM UTC
· Uncertainty still prevails around this central view. The impact of lagged monetary tightening could be greater than our estimates and deliver mild recessions in some DM countries. We also feel that the disinflationary process could be stronger and this would help bring inflation back
December 15, 2023
RBA: Late to the 2024 Rate Cut Party
December 15, 2023 3:30 PM UTC
We forecast headline CPI inflation to continue moderating throughout 2024/25 until breaking below 3% in Q3 2025. Despite dissipating supply chain disruption and global monetary tightening, inflation for 2023/24 CPI has been revised marginally higher to 5.6% and 3.4% respectively as energy prices spi