Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant

October 1, 2026 4:52 PM UTC

We expect September PPI to increase by 0.6% overall led by energy with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This will suggest inflationary pressures remain elevated, with little sign of slowing at the producer level. 

Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Healthy if less strong than August

October 1, 2026 1:06 PM UTC

We expect September’s non-farm payroll to rise by 100k both overall and in the private sector, slower than in August but still implying a healthy trend. We expect a 4.1% unemployment rate for a third straight month but a slightly slower 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and a stable workweek. O

Preview: Due October 1 - U.S. September ISM Manufacturing - Back to near the recent high

September 30, 2026 2:18 PM UTC

We September’s ISM manufacturing index to pick up to 55.5 from August’s 54.6, not quite reaching July’s 55.6 that was the highest since May 2022 but sustaining a clearly healthy picture. 

Preview: Due October 14 - U.S. September CPI - Stronger, but with a slower core rate

September 29, 2026 6:03 PM UTC

We expect a stronger rise of 0.6% in overall CPI in September, but a moderate 0.2% increase ex food and energy. Before rounding we expect the respective gains to be 0.57% and 0.19%. The latter would be a significant slowing from August’s 0.29%, but the former would be the strongest since April.

Preview: Due October 14 - U.S. September CPI - Stronger, but with a slower core rate

September 29, 2026 6:02 PM UTC

We expect a stronger rise of 0.6% in overall CPI in September, but a moderate 0.2% increase ex food and energy. Before rounding we expect the respective gains to be 0.57% and 0.19%. The latter would be a significant slowing from August’s 0.29%, but the former would be the strongest since April.

Preview: Due September 29 - Canada July GDP - Subdued start to Q3

September 28, 2026 12:29 PM UTC

We expect July GDP to be unchanged, a pause after three straight gains in Q2. This would be in line with the preliminary estimate for July made with June’s report. 

Preview: Due September 25 - U.S. August Durable Goods Orders - Some signs momentum is slowing in Q3

September 24, 2026 12:00 PM UTC

We expect a 0.3% decline in August durable goods orders on a weak month for aircraft as implied by Boeing data, but a 0.7% increase ex transport. This would be  slightly stronger than July’s 0.4% but would still suggest some loss of momentum in Q3. 

Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. September ADP Employment - Signs of improvement

September 22, 2026 1:14 PM UTC

We expect an 85k increase in September’s ADP estimate for private sector employment. The 4 week average from ADP’s weekly report for the week to September 5, the week before the monthly survey, was 20k and picking up. This implies a monthly increase slightly stronger than 80k.

Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Healthy if less strong than August

September 21, 2026 6:29 PM UTC

We expect September’s non-farm payroll to rise by 100k both overall and in the private sector, slower than in August but still maintaining a healthy trend. We expect a 4.1% unemployment rate for a third straight month but a slightly slower 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and a stable workweek

Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Healthy if less strong than August

September 21, 2026 6:28 PM UTC

We expect September’s non-farm payroll to rise by 100k both overall and in the private sector, slower than in August but still maintaining a healthy trend. We expect a 4.1% unemployment rate for a third straight month but a slightly slower 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and a stable workweek

Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. August Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, watch for revisions

September 18, 2026 5:26 PM UTC

We expect August PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.4% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy. We expect a 0.5% increase in personal income, and a strong 0.9% increase in personal spending. The data should be watched not only for August changes, but also for historical revisions going ba

Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. August Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, watch for revisions

September 18, 2026 5:25 PM UTC

We expect August PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.4% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy. We expect a 0.5% increase in personal income, and a strong 0.9% increase in personal spending. The data should be watched not only for August changes, but also for historical revisions going ba

Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. Final (Third) Estimate Q2 GDP - Historical revisions due

September 18, 2026 12:54 PM UTC

Final Q2 GDP data is due on September 30 and we are not forecasting any revision from the preliminary 1.5% estimate. Of greater significance will be historical revisions for data going back through 2021. We will be watching particularly for any revisions to core PCE prices, personal income and spend

Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. August Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit rising again

September 17, 2026 5:33 PM UTC

We expect an advance August goods trade deficit of $122.7bn, a marginal increase from July’s $118.9bn which was the widest since the record pre-tariff deficit of $158.7bn seen in March 2025.

Preview: Due October 9 - Canada September Employment - Only a modest rise after a sharp decline

September 14, 2026 6:33 PM UTC

We expect Canadian employment to increase by a marginal 5k in September after 41.7k decline in August, though a second straight decline after three straight healthy gains is a significant risk. We expect the unemployment rate to increase to 6.5% after two months at 6.4%.

FOMC Preview for September 16: Recent data back Warsh tightening hints

September 11, 2026 2:36 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on September 16 and after some recent firm data, particularly August’s core CPI, a 25bps tightening to a 3.75% - 4.0% Fed Funds target range now looks likely. However, the CPI upside surprise came in only a few components and some dovish dissents are still possible, though Chairman

FOMC Preview for September 16: Recent data back Warsh tightening hints

September 11, 2026 2:36 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on September 16 and after some recent firm data, particularly August’s core CPI, a 25bps tightening to a 3.75% - 4.0% Fed Funds target range now looks likely. However, the CPI upside surprise came in only a few components and some dovish dissents are still possible, though Chairman

Preview: Due September 25 - U.S. August Durable Goods Orders - Some signs momentum is slowing in Q3

September 8, 2026 5:43 PM UTC

We expect a 0.3% decline in August durable goods orders on a weak month for aircraft as implied by Boeing data, but a 0.7% increase ex transport. This would be  slightly stronger than July’s 0.4% but would still suggest some loss of momentum in Q3. 

Preview: Due September 16 - U.S. August Retail Sales - Autos and non-store sales to lead bounce from weak July

September 4, 2026 7:29 PM UTC

We expect August retail sales to rise by 1.0% in a rebound from a 0.6% July decline that was the first fall since October 2025. Autos and non-store retailers will lead the rise, the latter due to July being depressed by Amazon running a promotion in June rather than the usual July.

Preview: Due September 16 - U.S. August Retail Sales - Autos and non-store sales to lead bounce from weak July

September 4, 2026 7:28 PM UTC

We expect August retail sales to rise by 1.0% in a rebound from a 0.6% July decline that was the first fall since October 2025. Autos and non-store retailers will lead the rise, the latter due to July being depressed by Amazon running a promotion in June rather than the usual July.

Preview: Due September 17 - U.S. August Housing Starts and Permits - Starts due for a bounce, but trend subdued

September 4, 2026 3:03 PM UTC

We expect August housing starts to increase by 8.2% to 1340k after a 12.4% decline in July while permits fall by 1.6% to 1410k after a 4.3% increase in July. 

Preview: Due September 3 - U.S. July Trade Balance - Advance goods data suggests widest post-tariff deficit

September 2, 2026 12:54 PM UTC

We expect a July trade deficit of $90.5bn, up from $73.3bn in June and the widest since the record pre-tariff deficit of $133.0bn seen in March 2025. The deficit will also be lower than those of December 2024 and January and February of 2025, but before then the last deficit that exceeded our foreca

Preview: Due September 2 - U.S. August ADP Employment - Another subdued month, this time underperforming payrolls

September 1, 2026 11:30 AM UTC

We expect a 50k increase in August’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which is below our forecast for August’s private sector non-farm payroll of 75k (we also expect overall payrolls to rise by 75k). This would be the first ADP underperformance of payrolls in four months.

Preview: Due September 10 - U.S. August PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant

August 31, 2026 5:59 PM UTC

We expect August PPI to increase by 0.4% overall with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. We expect a 2.2% increase in energy, not fully erasing a 3.5% July decline, and a 0.3% correction higher in food after a sharp 0.9% decline in July.