Data Previews
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May 20, 2026
Preview: Due May 21 - U.S. April Housing Starts and Permits - A mixed picture but trend may slow in Q2
May 20, 2026 12:31 PM UTC
We look for April housing starts and permits to both see levels of 1.40m, for starts a fall of 6.8% after a rise of 10.8% in March, and for permits a rise of 2.7% after a fall of 11.4% in March.
May 19, 2026
Preview: Due May 28 - U.S. April New Home Sales - Trend has little direction
May 19, 2026 2:48 PM UTC
We expect an April new home sales total of 665k, which would be a decline of 2.5% in March’s 7.4% increase to 682k sees no revisions. Over the last three years, movements outside a 650-700k range have trended to be brief though November 2025 hit a high of 748k and January 2026 a low of 583k.
May 18, 2026
Preview: Due May 19 - Canada April CPI - Stronger overall but with slower core rates
May 18, 2026 12:14 PM UTC
We expect April Canadian CPI to bounce to 2.9% yr/yr (2.94% before rounding) from 2.4% in March, most of the acceleration due to April 2025 having seen the abolition of a carbon tax, thus lowering the year ago base relative to March. We expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be on balance softe
May 15, 2026
Preview: Due May 29 - Canada Q1/March GDP - Domestic demand to lead a modest bounce
May 15, 2026 3:37 PM UTC
We expect Q1 Canadian GDP to increase by 1.4% annualized, in line with a 1.5% forecast seen in April’s Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report. We expect March GDP to be unchanged, consistent with a preliminary estimate made with February data. Unchanged March GDP and no revisions to January or Febr
Preview: Due May 28 - U.S. April Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to lead, but ex transport trend firm
May 15, 2026 2:18 PM UTC
We expect April durable goods orders to increase by 4.5% overall, in a rise led by aircraft, though ex transport orders are likely to confirm continued underlying strength with a second straight increase of 0.9%, which would be in line with an improvement in trend seen over the last four months.
May 14, 2026
Preview: Due May 29 - U.S. April Advance Goods Trade Balance - Third straight rise in deficit
May 14, 2026 4:17 PM UTC
We expect an advance April goods trade deficit of $90.0bn, up from $87.4bn in March and a third straight deterioration, though still well below December’s $98.5bn, which was similar to where trend was before changes in tariff policy brought increased volatility to the series.
Preview: Due May 28 - U.S. April Personal Income and Spending - PCE Prices to underperform CPI
May 14, 2026 3:26 PM UTC
We expect April’s core PCE price index to rise by 0.3%, with overall PCE prices up by 0.5%, both slightly below respective CPI outcomes of 0.4% and 0.6%. We expect a 0.3% rise in personal income to underperform a 0.5% rise in spending, but due to lower taxes disposable personal income may outperfo
May 13, 2026
Preview: Due May 14 - U.S. April Retail Sales - Consumers still resilient to headwinds
May 13, 2026 1:38 PM UTC
We expect April retail sales to increase by 0.7% overall with a rise of 0.9% ex autos, but only 0.5% ex autos and gasoline, the latter a marginal slowing from two straight 0.6% increases. Still, consumer spending continues to appear resilient to significant headwinds.
May 12, 2026
Preview: Due May 13 - U.S. April PPI - Core rates to pick up from below trend March
May 12, 2026 1:40 PM UTC
We expect PPI to rise by 0.5% overall in April for a third straight month. We expect the lift from energy to be less sharp than in March, but the core rates to pick up from below trend March gains, ex food and energy to 0.3% from 0.1%, and ex food, energy and trade to 0.4% from 0.2%.
UK CPI Preview (May 20): Inflation Sedate For Now But Wages Still on the Wane?
May 12, 2026 12:05 PM UTC
What are energy induced price rises are now very evident, most notably in PPI data as well as the more closely watched CPI figures. Thus after a stable 3.0% (a 10-mth low) February’s headline – matching the consensus, headline CPI jumped to 3.3% in March. Services, however, rose from 4.3% a fo
May 11, 2026
Preview: Due May 12 - U.S. April CPI - Energy, air fares and a housing distortion
May 11, 2026 12:28 PM UTC
We now expect April CPI to increase by 0.6% overall and 0.4% ex food and energy, with respective gains before rounding being 0.57% and 0.41%. Energy is likely to add close to 0.2% to the overall gain and feed through from energy is likely to add around 0.1% to the core, largely in air fares. There i
May 08, 2026
Preview: Due May 21 - U.S. April Housing Starts and Permits - A mixed picture but trend may slow in Q2
May 8, 2026 6:34 PM UTC
We look for April housing starts and permits to both see levels of 1.40m, for starts a fall of 6.8% after a rise of 10.8% in March, and for permits a rise of 2.7% after a fall of 11.4% in March.
May 07, 2026
Russia Inflation Preview: Inflation Will Slightly Decrease to 5.8% in April
May 7, 2026 6:25 PM UTC
Bottom Line: We expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern moderately in April owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. April inflation figures will be announced on May 15, and we foresee y/y prices to hover around 5.8%. Desp
Preview: Due May 14 - U.S. April Retail Sales - Consumers still resilient to headwinds
May 7, 2026 3:31 PM UTC
We expect April retail sales to increase by 0.7% overall with a rise of 0.9% ex autos, but only 0.5% ex autos and gasoline, the latter a marginal slowing from two straight 0.6% increases. Still, consumer spending continues to appear resilient to significant headwinds.
Preview: Due May 8 - Canada April Employment - A modest gain with stable unemployment
May 7, 2026 1:20 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 10k in March, a second straight modest rise to follow a gain of 14.1k in March, still not close to erasing the steep loss of 83.9k in February which extended a substantial 24.8k decline in January. We expect a 6.7% unemployment rate for a third straight m
Preview: Due May 8 - U.S. April Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Not as strong as March but some positive signals
May 7, 2026 1:15 PM UTC
We expect April’s non-farm payroll to rise by 90k overall and by 95k in the private sector, less strong than in March but implying some improvement in trend. We expect unemployment to slip to 4.2% from 4.3% and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings.
May 06, 2026
Preview: Due May 19 - Canada April CPI - Stronger overall but with slower core rates
May 6, 2026 3:24 PM UTC
We expect April Canadian CPI to bounce to 2.9% yr/yr (2.94% before rounding) from 2.4% in March, most of the acceleration due to April 2025 having seen the abolition of a carbon tax, thus lowering the year ago base relative to March. We expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be on balance softe
May 05, 2026
Preview: Due May 11 - U.S. April Existing Home Sales - An upward correction but trend may be slowing
May 5, 2026 5:43 PM UTC
We expect existing home sales to maintain a recent choppy pattern in April, with a 2.0% increase to 4.06m, in a partial correction from a 3.6% decline in March. Underlying trend is probably starting to slip as inflation fears reduce Fed easing prospects, even if our forecast implies the first positi
Preview: Due May 12 - U.S. April CPI - Energy, air fares and a housing distortion (revised)
May 5, 2026 3:47 PM UTC
We now expect April CPI to increase by 0.6% overall and 0.4% ex food and energy, with respective gains before rounding being 0.57% and 0.41%. Energy is likely to add close to 0.2% to the overall gain and feed through from energy is likely to add around 0.1% to the core, largely in air fares. There i
Preview: Due May 6 - U.S. April ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data suggests a stronger rise
May 5, 2026 12:01 PM UTC
We expect a 140k increase in April’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be the strongest since a matching gain in January 2025. It would not be quite as strong as a 4-week average of 39.25k in the weekly ADP employment report for the weeks to April 11 implies. We assume some l
UK GDP Preview (May 14): March GDP Drop Expected, Correction or Fresh Trend?
May 5, 2026 10:16 AM UTC
Before the outbreak of the Iran War there was already a split within the MPC about the policy outlook and that such divisions may have been accentuated by the much stronger than expected February GDP update which showed a m/m rise of 0.5%, the strongest in 14 months. This is likely to have been ab
May 04, 2026
Preview: Due May 13 - U.S. April PPI - Core rates to pick up from below trend March
May 4, 2026 5:31 PM UTC
We expect PPI to rise by 0.5% overall in April for a third straight month. We expect the lift from energy to be less sharp than in March, but the core rates to pick up from below trend March gains, ex food and energy to 0.3% from 0.1%, and ex food, energy and trade to 0.4% from 0.2%.
Preview: Due May 12 - U.S. April CPI - Energy to rise less sharply than in March, but air fares to lift the core
May 4, 2026 3:56 PM UTC
We expect April CPI to increase by 0.5% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy, with the latter rising by 0.33% before rounding and the highest since January 2025. Seasonal adjustments will restrain the increase in gasoline but we expect feed through of energy prices to air fares to be factor in liftin
Preview: Due May 5 - U.S. February and March New Home Sales - Trend subdued, but January was below trend
May 4, 2026 12:51 PM UTC
New home sales for both February and March will be released on May 5. We expect a level of 675k in each month, which would be up by 15.0% from January’s 587k, which was the lowest level since October 2022. January’s data was well below recent trend and may have been weather-impacted. We would no
Preview: Due May 5 - U.S. April ISM Services - March new orders imply underlying strength persists
May 4, 2026 12:33 PM UTC
We expect April’s ISM services index to pick up to 54.5 from 54.0 in March, after slipping from February’s 56.1, which was the highest reading since July 2002. April’s S and P Services PMI picked up, but was still quite weak at 51.3 after slipping to 49.8 in March. The two series are not well
Preview: Due May 5 - U.S. March Trade Balance - Wider goods deficit to be partly offset by rise in services surplus
May 4, 2026 12:28 PM UTC
We expect a March trade deficit of $60.4bn, up from $57.3bn in February. We expect gains of 1.5% in exports and 2.1% in imports, extending respective February gains of 4.2% and 4.3% respectively.
April 30, 2026
Preview: Due May 5 - U.S. March Trade Balance - Wider goods deficit to be partly offset by rise in services surplus
April 30, 2026 3:26 PM UTC
We expect a March trade deficit of $60.4bn, up from $57.3bn in February. We expect gains of 1.5% in exports and 2.1% in imports, extending respective February gains of 4.2% and 4.3% respectively.
Preview: Due May 1 - U.S. April ISM Manufacturing - Highest composite and prices paid since 2022
April 30, 2026 2:25 PM UTC
Despite risks coming from the Middle East, we expect April’s ISM manufacturing index to increase to 53.5 from 52.7, delivering a fourth straight clearly positive reading and the highest level since June 2022.
Turkiye’s Annual Inflation Projected to Rise Above 31% in April
April 30, 2026 2:11 PM UTC
Bottom line: After hitting 30.9% annually in March, we expect Turkiye’s inflation will likely moderately increase over 31% in April as the economy remains under pressure from Iran war, which sparked a surge in energy, transportation and agricultural input costs. Our average inflation forecast fo
April 29, 2026
Preview: Due April 30 - Canada February GDP - A stronger month though March may slip
April 29, 2026 2:45 PM UTC
We expect February GDP to increase by 0.3%, slightly stronger than a 0.2% gain predicted with January’s report, though risk is for a weaker preliminary estimate for March. If March declines by 0.1% after a 0.3% February increase, and January’s 0.1% increase is unrevised, this would imply a 1.6%
Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. March Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform core CPI
April 29, 2026 1:26 PM UTC
March’s personal income and spending data may be overshadowed by the Q1 GDP report due at the same time and to which it will contribute. We expect a 0.9% rise in personal spending, to exceed both a 0.2% rise in personal income and a 0.7% rise in PCE prices. For core PCE prices, we expect an in
Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. Q1 GDP - Government to lead bounce from weak Q4, Core PCE prices stronger
April 29, 2026 1:24 PM UTC
We expect a 2.6% annualized increase in Q1 GDP, improved from a weak 0.5% in Q4 largely due to a rebound in government from Q4 data that was depressed by a shutdown. Excluding government we expect a second straight quarter close to 1.5%. We expect a significant acceleration in core PCE prices, to 4.
Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. Q1 Employment Cost Index - Slightly stronger on the quarter, but slower yr/yr
April 29, 2026 11:59 AM UTC
We look for the Q1 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.8%, slightly firmer than the 0.7% seen in Q4 that was the slowest since Q2 2021 but still seeing the yr/yr pace slow to 3.2% from 3.4%, reaching its slowest since Q2 2021.
April 28, 2026
Preview: Due April 29 - U.S. February and March Housing Starts and Permits - A fairly flat picture
April 28, 2026 6:22 PM UTC
Housing starts and permits data for both February and March will be released on April 29. We expect a fairly flat housing market picture to emerge, with starts falling by 7.2% in February to 1380k after a 7.2% January increase, followed by a 1.4% rise to 1400k in March. We expect permits to rise by
Preview: Due May 6 - U.S. April ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data suggests a stronger rise
April 28, 2026 6:14 PM UTC
We expect a 140k increase in April’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be the strongest since a matching gain in January 2025. It would not be quite as strong as a 4-week average of 39.25k in the weekly ADP employment report for the weeks to April 11 implies. We assume some l
Preview: Due May 8 - U.S. April Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Not as strong as March but some positive signals
April 28, 2026 5:12 PM UTC
We expect April’s non-farm payroll to rise by 90k overall and by 95k in the private sector, less strong than in March but implying some improvement in trend. We expect unemployment to slip to 4.2% from 4.3% and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings.
Preview: Due April 29 - U.S. March Durable Goods Orders - A moderate rise, upside risk in defense
April 28, 2026 4:05 PM UTC
We expect March durable goods orders to increase by 1.0% overall, with a 0.4% increase ex transport, with most of the transport increase coming in defense. Ex transport trend will remain positive, but a 0.4% increase would be slightly below recent trend. We expect a 0.5% increase ex defense.
Preview: Due April 29 - U.S. March Advance Goods Trade Balance - February exports gain less sustainable that that of imports
April 28, 2026 3:10 PM UTC
Trade data has been volatile recently and advance goods data could have an impact on Q1 GDP expectations, with GDP data due on April 30. We expect a deficit of $87.8bn, up from $83.5bn in February and $80.9bn in January.
April 24, 2026
Preview: Due May 8 - Canada April Employment - A modest gain with stable unemployment
April 24, 2026 6:52 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 10k in March, a second straight modest rise to follow a gain of 14.1k in March, still not close to erasing the steep loss of 83.9k in February which extended a substantial 24.8k decline in January. We expect a 6.7% unemployment rate for a third straight m
April 23, 2026
Preview: Due May 5 - U.S. February and March New Home Sales - Trend subdued, but January was below trend
April 23, 2026 5:43 PM UTC
New home sales for both February and March will be released on May 5. We expect a level of 675k in each month, which would be up by 15.0% from January’s 587k, which was the lowest level since October 2022. January’s data was well below recent trend and may have been weather-impacted. We would no
Preview: Due May 5 - U.S. April ISM Services - March new orders imply underlying strength persists
April 23, 2026 5:00 PM UTC
We expect April’s ISM services index to pick up to 54.5 from 54.0 in March, after slipping from February’s 56.1, which was the highest reading since July 2002. April’s S and P Services PMI picked up, but was still quite weak at 51.3 after slipping to 49.8 in March. The two series are not well
Preview: Due May 1 - U.S. April ISM Manufacturing - Highest composite and prices paid since 2022
April 23, 2026 2:23 PM UTC
Despite risks coming from the Middle East, we expect April’s ISM manufacturing index to increase to 53.5 from 52.7, delivering a fourth straight clearly positive reading and the highest level since June 2022.
April 22, 2026
Bank of Canada Preview for April 29: No hawkish shift from energy price shock
April 22, 2026 5:28 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on April 29 and looks set to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. A quarterly Monetary Policy Report is due but given uncertainty the BoC may deliver a range of scenarios rather than an updated forecast. Despite the upside risks to overall inflation, recent subdued economic activ
FOMC Preview for April 29: Uncertainty keeping the Fed on hold
April 22, 2026 2:29 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on April 29 and there is little risk of a change in rates from the current target range of 3.5-3.75%. High uncertainty, both on the geopolitical situation and the future of the Fed, suggests there will be little forward guidance, and the dots will not be updated until the next meeting
Preview: Due April 23 - U.S. April S and P PMIs - Slightly firmer despite Middle East risk
April 22, 2026 12:33 PM UTC
We expect modest increases in April’s S and P PMIs, manufacturing to a healthy 52.5 from 52.3 and services to a neutral 50.0 after March’s 49.8 fell below neutral for the first time since January 2023.
April 21, 2026
Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. Q1 GDP - Government to lead bounce from weak Q4, Core PCE prices stronger
April 21, 2026 5:31 PM UTC
We expect a 2.6% annualized increase in Q1 GDP, improved from a weak 0.5% in Q4 largely due to a rebound in government from Q4 data that was depressed by a shutdown. Excluding government we expect a second straight quarter close to 1.5%. We expect a significant acceleration in core PCE prices, to 4.
Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. March Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform core CPI
April 21, 2026 2:38 PM UTC
March’s personal income and spending data may be overshadowed by the Q1 GDP report due at the same time and to which it will contribute. We expect a 0.9% rise in personal spending, to exceed both a 0.2% rise in personal income and a 0.7% rise in PCE prices. For core PCE prices, we expect an in