Preview: Due April 13 - U.S. March Existing Home Sales - Trend near flat, downside risk in Q2

April 2, 2026 5:41 PM UTC

We expect a marginal 0.2% increase in March existing home sales to 4.10m leaving trend with little direction. Going forward, the Iran war poses downside risks in Q2, depending on its duration.

Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. March Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - A boost from returning strikers, but trend subdued

April 2, 2026 1:57 PM UTC

We now expect March’s non-farm payroll to rise by 50k overall and by 60k in the private sector, both revised up by 30k due to the ending of strikes, largely in health, as shown in Friday’s strike report.  This is still consistent with a subdued labor market picture, which a rise in unemployment

Russia’s Inflation Will Hover Around 5.9% in March

April 2, 2026 7:48 AM UTC

Bottom Line: After edging down to 5.9% in February from 6% in the previous month, we expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern moderately in March owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. March inflation figures will be anno

Preview: Due April 10 - U.S. March CPI - Energy to surge, but core rate seen similar to February

April 1, 2026 7:26 PM UTC

We expect March CPI to surge by 1.0% overall, which would be the strongest rise since June 2022, seen in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However we expect only a moderate increase ex food and energy, of 0.22% before rounding, which would match that seen in February.

Preview: Due April 2 - U.S. February Trade Balance - Volatility continuing, deficit to bounce after January decline

April 1, 2026 11:57 AM UTC

We expect the US trade balance to continue to show volatility in February, with a deficit of $68.0bn, up from $54.5bn in January but below December’s $72.9bn. The deficit would remain slightly below where trend was running in 2024, around $75.0bn per month, before a pre-tariff surge and a post-tar

Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. March ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data rising modestly

March 31, 2026 6:08 PM UTC

We expect a 40k increase in March’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be consistent with a 4-week average of 10k in the weekly ADP employment report for the weeks to March 7. That was the week before the monthly data was surveyed.

Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. March Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Forecast revised up on returning strikers, but still implying a subdued trend

March 31, 2026 5:56 PM UTC

We now expect March’s non-farm payroll to rise by 50k overall and by 60k in the private sector, both revised up by 30k due to the ending of strikes, largely in health, as shown in Friday’s strike report.  This is still consistent with a subdued labor market picture, which a rise in unemployment

Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. March ISM Manufacturing - Sustaining recent improvement

March 31, 2026 1:57 PM UTC

We expect March’s ISM manufacturing index to maintain the significantly improved tone of January and February data, edging marginally higher to 52.5 from 52.4. This would be a third straight positive to follow ten straight negatives.

Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. February Retail Sales - Autos and gasoline to rise, trend now subdued

March 31, 2026 12:50 PM UTC

We expect February retail sales to see a modest bounce of 0.4% after a 0.2% decline in January, with sales ex auto increasing by 0.3% after two straight unchanged months. Ex autos and gasoline however we expect a rise of only 0.2%, down from 0.3% in January, keeping trend subdued.

Preview: Due March 31 - Canada January GDP - Flat on the month and near flat yr/yr

March 30, 2026 11:50 AM UTC

We expect January Canadian GDP to be unchanged in line with a preliminary estimate made with December’s data. We expect a positive preliminary estimate for February of around 0.2%, though Q1 is still likely to fall short of a 1.8% annualized Bank of Canada forecast made in January.

Preview: Due April 10 - Canada March Employment - Highly volatile, but trend still looks modestly positive

March 27, 2026 1:27 PM UTC

We expect Canadian employment to increase by 40k in March, in a correction from an exceptionally large decline of 83.9k in February which may have been influenced by weather. While the data has been very volatile, underlying trend is probably still moderately positive. We expect an unemployment rate

EZ HICP Preview (Mar 31): Headline to Surge but Core to Slip Back?

March 26, 2026 1:54 PM UTC

The first of the Iran War induced rise in prices arrive in the coming week with flash March HICP data.  We see the headline rate spiking higher to 2.6%-2.7 from February’s 1.9%, the former largely chiming with that implied ECB thinking from the latter’s recent updated projections.  But both it

Preview: Due April 2 - U.S. February Trade Balance - Volatility continuing, deficit to bounce after January decline

March 25, 2026 2:49 PM UTC

We expect the US trade balance to continue to show volatility in February, with a deficit of $68.0bn, up from $54.5bn in January but below December’s $72.9bn. The deficit would remain slightly below where trend was running in 2024, around $75.0bn per month, before a pre-tariff surge and a post-tar

Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. March ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data rising modestly

March 24, 2026 6:49 PM UTC

We expect a 40k increase in March’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be consistent with a 4-week average of 10k in the weekly ADP employment report for the weeks to March 7. That was the week before the monthly data was surveyed.

Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. March Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Back to subdued trend after strong January and weak February

March 24, 2026 6:33 PM UTC

We expect March’s non-farm payroll to rise by a marginal 20k overall and by 30k in the private sector, returning to a subdued trend after a strong January increase was mostly reversed in February. A rise in unemployment to 4.5% from 4.4% and a slower 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings would

Preview: Due March 25 - U.S. Q4 Current Account - Correction from record pre-tariff deficit extending further

March 24, 2026 12:39 PM UTC

We expect a Q4 US current account deficit of $215bn, down from $226.4bn in Q3 and the narrowest since Q1 2021. As a proportion of GDP the deficit would be 2.7%, down from 2.9% in Q3 and the narrowest since Q1 2020. The correction from the record $439.8bn pre-tariff deficit in Q1 continues. 

Preview: Due March 24 - U.S. March S and P PMIs - Middle East bringing downside risk

March 23, 2026 12:09 PM UTC

We expect slippage in March’s S and P PMIs, with manufacturing and services both falling to a marginally positive 51.0, from 51.6 and 51.7 respectively in February.

Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. February Retail Sales - Autos and gasoline to rise, trend now subdued

March 20, 2026 5:30 PM UTC

We expect February retail sales to see a modest bounce of 0.4% after a 0.2% decline in January, with sales ex auto increasing by 0.3% after two straight unchanged months. Ex autos and gasoline however we expect a rise of only 0.2%, down from 0.3% in January, keeping trend subdued.

Preview: Due March 31 - Canada January GDP - Flat on the month and near flat yr/yr

March 20, 2026 3:07 PM UTC

We expect January Canadian GDP to be unchanged in line with a preliminary estimate made with December’s data. We expect a positive preliminary estimate for February of around 0.2%, though Q1 is still likely to fall short of a 1.8% annualized Bank of Canada forecast made in January.

Preview: Due March 19 - U.S. January New Home Sales - Edging further off November's high

March 18, 2026 1:10 PM UTC

We expect a modest 0.7% decline in January new home sales to 740k, a second straight loss after a 1.7% decline in December. This would still leave most of November’s 15.5% increase, which took sales to their highest level since February 2022, intact.

Preview: Due March 18 - U.S. February PPI - Ex food, energy and trade suggests trend at 0.3% per month

March 17, 2026 12:51 PM UTC

We expect PPI to rise by 0.3% in February, slower than January’s 0.5% and December’s 0.4%. Ex food and energy we expect a rise of 0.2% after a strong 0.8% January increase. Ex food, energy and trade however, we expect a fourth straight increase of 0.3%, which would signal where trend is.

UK CPI Preview (Mar 25): The Calm Before the Storm?

March 17, 2026 8:53 AM UTC

Although most aspects of the January CPI came in a notch above BoE thinking, there was still a clear fall even in the core rate.  Indeed, the headline CPI rate fell from December’s 3.4% to 3.0% (a 10-mth low) and we see it staying there is February’s numbers - as do BoE projections.  Services

Preview: Due March 16 - Canada February CPI - Softer in part due to year ago end of a sales tax holiday

March 13, 2026 2:44 PM UTC

We expect February Canadian CPI to slip to a 6-month and on-target low of 2.0% yr/yr (1.96% before rounding) from 2.3% (2.29% before rounding) in January, the slowing mainly due to the ending of a sales tax holiday a year ago, which lasted from mid-December of 2024 to mid-February of 2025).  The Ba

FOMC Preview for March 18: Little change seen in either statement or dots

March 11, 2026 3:37 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on March 18 with rates likely to be left unchanged at 3.5-3.75%. The dots will be updated but we expect them to remain where they were in December, looking for one 25bps easing in 2026 and one more in 2027. The economic forecasts are likely to see only modest changes from September, w

Preview: Due March 19 - U.S. January New Home Sales - Edging further off November's high

March 10, 2026 6:06 PM UTC

We expect a modest 0.7% decline in January new home sales to 740k, a second straight loss after a 1.7% decline in December. This would still leave most of November’s 15.5% increase, which took sales to their highest level since February 2022, intact.

Bank of Canada Preview for March 18: No change in rates or from January's message

March 10, 2026 5:27 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on March 18 and looks highly likely to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. The statement is likely to reiterate the message given at the last meeting on January 28, that the policy rate is appropriate conditional on the economy evolving in line with expectations, but uncertainty

Preview: Due March 11 - U.S. February CPI - A moderate gain, but inflation not yet defeated

March 10, 2026 12:15 PM UTC

We expect February’s CPI to increase by 0.3%, with a 0.2% increase ex food and energy.  Before rounding we expect the gains will be similar, with the overall CPI rounded up from 0.26% and the core rounded down from 0.24%.  CPI has slowed, but it is too soon for the Fed to declare victory.

Preview: Due March 10 - U.S. February Existing Home Sales - Extending a sharp January decline

March 9, 2026 1:49 PM UTC

We expect February existing home sales to fall by 0.8% to extend a sharp 8.4% January decline, to a level of 3.88m, which would be the lowest since October 2010. This would follow a 0.8% decline in January pending home sales, which extended a sharp 7.4% December decline. 

Preview: Due March 13 - U.S. Preliminary (Second) Estimate Q4 GDP - Marginally stronger on housing

March 6, 2026 4:45 PM UTC

We expect a marginal upward revision to Q4 GDP to 1.5% in the preliminary (second) estimate from 1.4% in the advance (first) release, led by an upward revision to housing investment to a 1.7% rise from a 1.5% decline.

Preview: Due March 13 - U.S. January Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform CPI

March 6, 2026 3:24 PM UTC

We expect January to see a strong core PCE price index increase of 0.4%, matching the rise seen in December. We expect personal income to increase by 0.6%, unusually outpacing personal spending, which we expect to rise by 0.4% for a third straight month.

Preview: Due March 12 - U.S. January Trade Balance - May be stabilizing close to pre-tariff levels

March 5, 2026 3:25 PM UTC

We expect a January trade deficit of $69.0bn, which would be only a marginal correction from December’s $70.3bn which was the widest since July, though still well below the record $136.0bn deficit seen in March of 2025 shortly before the tariff announcement. 

Preview: Due March 6 - U.S. February Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Not as strong as January, but still marginally positive

March 5, 2026 2:26 PM UTC

We expect February’s non-farm payroll to rise by 35k overall and by 50k in the private sector, both four month lows and significantly slower than January’s above trend respective gains of 130k and 172k. We expect unemployment to edge up to 4.4% from 4.3%, reversing a January dip, and average hou

Preview: Due March 6 - U.S. January Retail Sales - Weather adding to downside risk

March 5, 2026 2:17 PM UTC

We expect retail sales to see a weak month in January, falling by 0.7% overall, with declines of 0.4% ex auto and 0.2% ex auto and gasoline. Bad weather late in the month will contribute to the decline.