India CPI Preview: Disinflation Deepens: October CPI Forecast at 1.1%

November 7, 2025 5:43 PM UTC

We forecast October CPI at 1.1% yr/yr, with risks tilted to the downside. The disinflationary trend is broad-based, but unlikely to last into early 2026. RBI still has room to cut, but may prefer to assess the durability of food price softness before moving

Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in October Likely Hitting Below 8.0% y/y

November 6, 2025 2:39 PM UTC

Bottom Line: We expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in October thanks to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening coupled with softening food prices and decreasing core inflation. October inflation figures will be announced on November 14, and we foresee Yr/Y

Preview: U.S. October CPI - An important number that may never be seen

November 4, 2025 3:59 PM UTC

October US CPI, while scheduled on November 13, may never be released even if the government  shutdown is resolved, given lack of data collection during the month of October. However what the number would have been does matter. Our forecast is for a 0.2% increase overall, with a 0.3% rise ex food a

UK GDP Preview (Nov 13): Cyber Crime Shock but Underlying Economy Listless

November 3, 2025 4:01 PM UTC

Notably, the level of UK GDP has hardly moved since March but we think there will be distinct setback in the September numbers where the cyber-attack of JLR vehicle manufacturing may be sizeable – car reduction may have fallen some 25% m/m-plus in the month alone.  As a result, we see September G

Preview: Due November 7 - Canada October Employment - Trend near flat despite volatility

November 3, 2025 3:57 PM UTC

Canadian employment data has been volatile in recent months, but underlying trend looks fairly flat, consistent with weak but marginally positive GDP growth. We expect October to see a decline of 5k after a strong 60.4k increase in September with unemployment unchanged at 7.1%.

Preview: Due November 3 - U.S. October ISM Manufacturing - Firmer but still short of neutral

October 31, 2025 1:53 PM UTC

We expect October’s ISM manufacturing index to see a third straight increase to 49.5, from 49.1 in September, reaching its highest level since February, if still marginally below the neutral level of 50. 

Preview: Due October 31 - Canada August GDP - A flat month to follow the first rise in four months

October 30, 2025 12:24 PM UTC

We expect August Canadian GDP to be unchanged after a 0.2% July increase that followed three straight monthly declines in Q2. If September is also unchanged that would imply a modest annualized gain of around 0.7% in Q3 after a negative Q2. The Bank of Canada forecast Q3 GDP at 0.5% annualized.

Indonesia CPI Preview: CPI to edge up in October

October 29, 2025 1:18 PM UTC

Indonesia’s inflation rate is set to edge up in October, but the uptick should remain well within the central bank’s comfort zone. For now, BI is expected to stay on hold in its next policy meeting, focusing instead on growth stability and external risks.

Preview: Due November 5 - U.S. October ISM Services - Seasonal adjustments to provide support

October 28, 2025 4:56 PM UTC

We expect October’s ISM services index to rise to 51.0 from 50.0, supported by seasonal adjustments. This would be in line with the Q3 average of 50.7 and the Q2 average of 50.8. 

Turkiye Inflation Preview: Inflation will Slightly Soften in October Despite Risks Dominate

October 28, 2025 4:43 PM UTC

Bottom line: After hitting 33.3% annually in September, we expect Turkiye’s inflation will likely soften moderately to around 32.5% in October while upside-tilted inflation risks limiting the downward trend during the ongoing disinflationary process. September inflation suggested that the pace o

Preview: Due November 3 - U.S. October ISM Manufacturing - Firmer but still short of neutral

October 28, 2025 2:55 PM UTC

We expect October’s ISM manufacturing index to see a third straight increase to 49.5, from 49.1 in September, reaching its highest level since February, if still marginally below the neutral level of 50. 

Preview: Due November 5 - U.S. October ADP Employment - Correction from September decline

October 24, 2025 7:25 PM UTC

We expect a rise of 30k in October’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth. This would largely reverse a 32k decline seen in September suggesting the labor market maintains a picture of limited hiring and limited layoffs. 

FOMC Preview for October 29: 25bps Easing but Little Forward Guidance

October 24, 2025 3:49 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on October 29 and a 25bps easing to 3.75%-4.0% looks likely, particularly after September’s CPI came in on the low side of expectations.  The statement is however still likely to express concerns over inflation while the scale of downside risks on activity are uncertain, and not on

October 23, 2025 1:07 PM UTC

While the government shutdown continues with no sign of a near term deal, September’s US CPI, originally scheduled for October 15, will be released on October 24. The release was considered essential as it is needed for annual cost of living adjustments to Social Security benefits. It is however p

EZ HICP Preview (Oct 31): No Halloween Horror from HICP Update

October 23, 2025 12:09 PM UTC

Mainly due to unfavourable base effects, EZ inflation has edged up in the last few months, but we think that this is temporary and that a fresh fall, possible to below the 2% target may occur in the October flash numbers – with a formal forecast of a 0.3 ppt drop to 1.9% and the core falling almos

Preview: Due October 23 - U.S. September Existing Home Sales - Signs of improvement

October 22, 2025 1:23 PM UTC

We expect September existing home sales to increase by 2.5% to 4.10m, reaching the highest level since February, as the housing market gets support from lower mortgage rates as Fed easing resumes.

Eurozone Flash GDP Preview (Oct 30): Resilience in the Dock?

October 22, 2025 9:11 AM UTC

As we highlighted repeatedly of late, for an economy that has seen repeated upside surprises and apparently above trend growth, now some 1.4% in the year to Q2, GDP data do not seem to have had much impact is shaping, let alone dominating, ECB policy thinking. But we think this may shift as the ECB

Bank of Canada Preview for October 29: A Pause before easing resumes in December

October 21, 2025 3:52 PM UTC

While we do not believe the Bank of Canada is done with easing, we expect the October 29 meeting to see rates left on hold at 2.50% given that most recent data have been on the firm side of expectations, though not strong enough to rule out a move. A pause in October would follow easing in September

October 20, 2025 4:36 PM UTC

Germany’s disinflation process hit a further and more-than-expected hurdle in September, as the HICP measure rose 0.3 ppt for a second successive month, thereby even more clearly up from July’s 1.8% y/y, that having been a 10-mth low.  But we see most, if not all, of this rise being reversed in

Preview: Due October 21 - Canada September CPI - Higher as year ago weakness drops out

October 20, 2025 2:32 PM UTC

We expect September Canadian CPI to pick up to 2.2% yr/yr from 1.9%, in part on year ago weakness dropping out. The Bank of Canada’s core rates are likely to remain stable, and above the 2.0% target.  The yr/yr headline rate will remain restrained by around 0.7% due to April’s abolition of the

Turkiye MPC Preview: CBRT will Likely Continue its Easing Cycle on October 23

October 20, 2025 7:00 AM UTC

Bottom Line: We think Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) will likely reduce the policy rate to 39%-39.5% during the MPC meeting scheduled for October 23 taking deceleration trend in inflation and relative TRY stability into account. We think CBRT will have to proceed carefully on interest-rate adjustmen

Preview: Due October 24 - U.S. October S&P PMIs - Stronger manufacturing, slower services

October 16, 2025 5:21 PM UTC

We expect October’s S and P PMIs to show manufacturing seeing renewed upside with a rise to 52.5 from 52.0 but services to see a continued move off its recent high, falling to 53.5 from 54.2.

October 14, 2025 2:07 PM UTC

After the upside (and broad) June CPI surprise, CPI inflation rose further, up another 0.2 ppt to 3.8% in July, higher than the consensus but matching BoE thinking. Despite adverse rounding and fuel (and food) costs, the headline stayed there in the August figure, this foreshadowing a likely rise th

Preview: Due October 23 - U.S. September Existing Home Sales - Signs of improvement

October 14, 2025 1:31 PM UTC

We expect September existing home sales to increase by 2.5% to 4.10m, reaching the highest level since February, as the housing market gets support from lower mortgage rates as Fed easing resumes.

Preview: Due October 24 (even if shutdown continues) - U.S. September CPI - Firm but a little less so in core rate

October 13, 2025 1:58 PM UTC

While the government shutdown continues with no sign of a near term deal, September’s US CPI, originally scheduled for October 15, will be released on October 24 even if the shutdown continues through then. The release was considered essential as it is needed for annual cost of living adjustments

Preview: Due October 21 - Canada September CPI - Higher as year ago weakness drops out

October 8, 2025 1:50 PM UTC

We expect September Canadian CPI to pick up to 2.2% yr/yr from 1.9%, in part on year ago weakness dropping out. The Bank of Canada’s core rates are likely to remain stable, and above the 2.0% target.  The yr/yr headline rate will remain restrained by around 0.7% due to April’s abolition of the

UK GDP Preview (Oct 16): Conflicting Signs To Veer Toward Weakness

October 7, 2025 1:37 PM UTC

Although we are pointed to a flat m/m GDP outcome for the July data, thereby matching the official outcome, the actual outcome was a small m/m fall (before rounding).  We see this being repeated in the August numbers with a 0.1% drop (Figure 1). This would leave the less volatile three-month rate a

Preview: Due October 3 - U.S. September ISM Services - August bounce was flattered by seasonal adjustments

October 2, 2025 3:45 PM UTC

We expect slippage in September’s ISM services index to 51.0 from 52.0, still above the levels seen in May, June and July, but implying a subdued pace of economic growth. 

Preview: Due October 16 (dependent on shutdown ending) - U.S. September Retail Sales - Still growing, if more on prices than volumes

October 2, 2025 12:53 PM UTC

We expect a third straight 0.6% increase in retail sales in September, with slightly over half of the increase coming in prices, leaving only moderate growth in real terms. We also expect 0.6% increase ex autos but a slightly weaker 0.5% increase ex autos and gasoline. 

Preview: Due October 16 (dependent on shutdown ending) - U.S. Setember PPI - Closer to trend after strong July and weak August

October 1, 2025 7:36 PM UTC

We expect September PPI to rise by 0.4% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy, with the latter gain coming near the average of a 0.7% bounce in July that was corrected by a 0.1% decline in August. Ex food, energy and trade we expect a moderate 0.2% increase after gains of 0.3% in August and 0.6% in Ju

Preview: Due October 15 (dependent on shutdown ending) - U.S. September CPI - Firm but a little less so in core rate

October 1, 2025 6:29 PM UTC

We expect September CPI to increase by 0.4% overall and by 0.3% ex food and energy, matching August’s outcomes after rounding, though before rounding we expect overall CPI to be rounded down from 0.425%, and the core rate to be rounded up from 0.28%, contrasting August data when headline CPI was r

Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in September

October 1, 2025 1:35 PM UTC

Bottom Line: We expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in September, after hitting the softest rate since April of 2024 with 8.1% YoY in August, particularly thanks to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening coupled with softening services and food prices. Sep

Preview: Due September 26 - Canada July GDP - First rise in four months

September 25, 2025 1:43 PM UTC

We expect July Canadian GDP to rise by 0.2%, following three straight declines of 0.1%. A 0.2% rise would be slightly stronger than a preliminary estimate of 0.1% made with June’s report.

Preview: Due October 1 - U.S. September ADP Employment - May get more attention if Federal government shuts down

September 24, 2025 5:19 PM UTC

We expect a rise of 45k in August’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth. This would match our forecast for overall non-farm payrolls but underperform our 50k forecast for private payrolls, correcting from three straight modest outperformances.

Preview: Due October 3 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Still subdued, but slightly stronger than in August

September 24, 2025 3:28 PM UTC

We expect September’s non-farm payroll to show another subdued rise,  of 45k, with 50k in the private sector, but marginally stronger than July’s respective gains of 22k and 38k. We expect unemployment to slip to 4.2% from 4.3% on a fall in the labor force, while average hourly earnings maintai

Preview: Due September 25 - U.S. Final (Third) Estimate Q2 GDP - Historical revisions due

September 24, 2025 12:28 PM UTC

We do not expect any significant revision in the third (final) estimate of Q2 GDP from the second (preliminary) estimate of 3.3%. However the data will include historical revisions, and here risk is on the downside, particularly for 2024.

EZ HICP Preview (Oct 1): Headline Inflation to Edges Higher as Services Slows to Fresh Cycle-low

September 24, 2025 10:54 AM UTC

As we have underlined of late, HICP inflation – at target for the last three months – is very much a side issue for the ECB at present, offset instead by moderate concerns whether the apparent resilience of the real economy may yet falter.  This mindset will not be altered by the flash HICP dat