Preview: Due February 17 - Canada January CPI - Little change from December but some underlying slowing

February 16, 2026 2:38 PM UTC

We expect January Canadian CPI to be unchanged at 2.4% yr/yr, with both December and January at 2.36% before rounding).  We expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be on balance softer, with CPI-Trim and CPI-Common both slowing, but CPI-Median stabilizing after a sharper fall in December. 

Preview: Due February 20 - U.S. Q4 GDP - GDP and Core PCE Prices both seen at 2.6%

February 12, 2026 4:48 PM UTC

We expect a 2.6% annualized increase in Q4 GDP, well above a flat forecast we had entering the quarter, but off a peak estimate of 3.6%, with weaker November trade and December retail sales data having trimmed the forecast. December trade data, due on February 19, remains a significant source of unc

Preview: Due February 13 - U.S. January CPI - A stronger month but slower yr/yr

February 12, 2026 1:13 PM UTC

We expect a 0.2% increase in January’s CPI, with a 0.3% rise ex food and energy, though risks are to the upside with our forecasts before rounding being for gains of 0.24% overall and 0.34% ex food and energy. The latter would be the strongest since August. 

Preview: Due February 12 - U.S. January Existing Home Sales - Reversing a strong December gain

February 11, 2026 3:35 PM UTC

We expect January existing home sales to fall by 5.3% to 4.12m, more than fully erasing a 5.1% December increase. Pending home sales are signaling a sharp decline and bad weather late in the month is a further downside risk. 

February 10, 2026 2:30 PM UTC

We expect January’s non-farm payroll to rise by 85k overall and by 80k in the private sector, which would be on the firm side of trend and could be even more so after what could be substantial negative historical revisions. However, we expect unemployment to rise to 4.5% from 4.4%. We expect avera

UK CPI Preview (Feb18): Fresh and Marked Fall to Resume as Core to Hit New Cycle-Low?

February 10, 2026 11:35 AM UTC

UK policy makers may not be able to say they have won the war against inflation, but a clear victory may be seen in the batter likely in the next few months with a likely return to the 2% target by April These projected falls are likely to commence with the looming January numbers (Figure 1) where a

Preview: Due February 10 - U.S. Q4 Employment Cost Index - Maintaining trend

February 9, 2026 2:24 PM UTC

We look for the Q4 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.9%, slightly firmer than the 0.8% seen in Q3 but matching the gains of Q1 and Q2, as well as Q4 2024. 

Preview: Due February 10 - U.S. December Retail Sales - Maintaining momentum

February 9, 2026 2:18 PM UTC

We expect retail sales to maintain momentum in December, rising by 0.6% overall and by 0.5% ex auto, both matching their November increases. Ex autos and gasoline we expect a 0.5% increase, a modest pick-up from two straight gains of 0.4%.

UK GDP Preview (Feb 12): Underlying Economy Fragility Continues?

February 5, 2026 11:21 AM UTC

Even given the surprisingly solid November GDP release, this merely returns the level of GDP to where it was in June, albeit briefly as for the latter.  Partly undermined by wet and warm weather through the month, we see no change on the December figure, in m/m terms (Figure 1), thus no reversal of

CBR will Likely Keep the Key Rate Stable on February 13

February 5, 2026 9:07 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Following the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) 50 bps cut to 16% on December 19—driven by an accelerated disinflationary trend in Q4—we expect the CBR to hold the policy rate at 16% on February 13. This cautious stance is anticipated as the Bank monitors inflationary risks, includin

Preview: Due February 27 - U.S. January PPI - Slower than a strong December, but trend still quite firm

February 4, 2026 7:03 PM UTC

We expect PPI to rise by a slower 0.2% in January both overall and ex food and energy, after strong respective gains of 0.5% and 0.7% in December. The slowing will be largely in trade, though ex food, energy and trade we expect a rise of 0.3%, slightly slower than December’s 0.4%.

Preview: Due February 13 (revised date) - U.S. January CPI - A stronger month but slower yr/yr

February 4, 2026 6:31 PM UTC

We expect a 0.2% increase in January’s CPI, with a 0.3% rise ex food and energy, though risks are to the upside with our forecasts before rounding being for gains of 0.24% overall and 0.34% ex food and energy. The latter would be the strongest since August.

February 4, 2026 5:46 PM UTC

We expect January’s non-farm payroll to rise by 85k overall and by 80k in the private sector, which would be on the firm side of trend and could be even more so after what could be substantial negative historical revisions. However, we expect unemployment to rise to 4.5% from 4.4%. We expect avera

Preview: Due February 10 - U.S. December Retail Sales - Maintaining momentum

February 4, 2026 5:15 PM UTC

We expect retail sales to maintain momentum in December, rising by 0.6% overall and by 0.5% ex auto, both matching their November increases. Ex autos and gasoline we expect a 0.5% increase, a modest pick-up from two straight gains of 0.4%.

Preview: Due February 12 - U.S. January Existing Home Sales - Reversing a strong December gain

February 4, 2026 12:47 PM UTC

We expect January existing home sales to fall by 5.3% to 4.12m, more than fully erasing a 5.1% December increase. Pending home sales are signaling a sharp decline and bad weather late in the month is a further downside risk. 

Preview: Due February 4 - U.S. January ADP Employment - To slow, and underperform payrolls

February 3, 2026 1:11 PM UTC

We expect a 30k increase in January’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be a slowing from 41k in December. We expect the ADP report to significantly underperform January’s non-farm payroll, where we expect a rise of 80k in the private sector, and 85k overall. Due to the gov

India MPC Preview: Inflation Low, Rupee Lower: Why RBI May Keep Rates on Ice

February 3, 2026 6:36 AM UTC

The RBI is expected to hold rates at 5.25%, resisting pressure for further easing. With inflation near historic lows but the rupee under strain and private investment still muted, policy will focus on anchoring stability, managing liquidity, and allowing past cuts to percolate. Further accommodation

Preview: Due February 10 (government shutdown may delay) - U.S. Q4 Employment Cost Index - Maintaining trend

February 2, 2026 8:03 PM UTC

We look for the Q4 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.9%, slightly firmer than the 0.8% seen in Q3 but matching the gains of Q1 and Q2, as well as Q4 2024. 

Preview: Due February 11 (government shutdown may delay) - U.S. January CPI - A stronger month but slower yr/yr

February 2, 2026 7:20 PM UTC

We expect a 0.2% increase in January’s CPI, with a 0.3% rise ex food and energy, though risks are to the upside with our forecasts before rounding being for gains of 0.24% overall and 0.34% ex food and energy. The latter would be the strongest since August.

EZ HICP Preview (Feb 4): Services Inflation Less Resilient as Headline to Slip Further

February 2, 2026 12:07 PM UTC

HICP inflation had been range bound for some 5-6 months between 2.0% and 2.2% with the November and October numbers in the middle of that range. And it seemingly stayed in that range falling to 2.0% in the December flash numbers, only to be revised down a further notch to 1.9% in the final HICP figu

RBA Preview: Likely Hawkish Tilt

February 2, 2026 9:34 AM UTC

The RBA February meeting will keep rates unchanged at 3.6% 

Preview: Due February 2 - U.S. January ISM Manufacturing - Improved if still short of neutral

January 30, 2026 5:09 PM UTC

We expect January’s ISM manufacturing index to pick up to 49.0 from 47.9, still below neutral but the strongest since September after falling to its lowest level since October 2024 in December.

Preview: Due February 4 - U.S. January ADP Employment - To slow, and underperform payrolls

January 29, 2026 4:58 PM UTC

We expect a 30k increase in January’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be a slowing from 41k in December. We expect the ADP report to significantly underperform January’s non-farm payroll, where we expect a rise of 80k in the private sector, and 85k overall.

January 29, 2026 4:23 PM UTC

We expect January’s non-farm payroll to rise by 85k overall and by 80k in the private sector, which would be on the firm side of trend and could be even more so after what could be substantial negative historical revisions. However, we expect unemployment to rise to 4.5% from 4.4%. We expect avera

Preview: Due January 29 - U.S. November Trade Balance - Narrower October deficit looks unsustainable

January 28, 2026 1:09 PM UTC

We expect a November trade deficit of $47.0bn, up from October’s $29.35bn which was the lowest since June 2009 and which looks unsustainably low, but still slightly narrower than September’s $48.14bn, which was itself the narrowest since March 2020.

Russia GDP Growth Preview: 2025 GDP Growth Will Hit Around 1%

January 28, 2026 11:09 AM UTC

Bottom Line: After Russia's GDP expanded by a moderate 0.6% y/y in Q3, we expect Russian economy will grow by around 1.0% in 2025 as Q4 growth will likely hit 0.6%-0.7% y/y. The GDP growth figures are expected to be announced on February 6. We think Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) previous aggressi

Preview: Due February 4 - U.S. January ISM Services - A partial correction from December's bounce

January 27, 2026 5:49 PM UTC

We expect January’s ISM services index to correct lower to 53.0 after a surprisingly strong December index of 54.4 that contrasted a slower S and P services PMI of 52.5 in December. January’s S and P services index did not rebound, remaining at 52.5.

Turkiye Inflation Preview: Inflation will Likely Soften to Around 30.5% in January

January 27, 2026 5:10 PM UTC

Bottom line: After hitting 30.9% annually in December, we expect Turkiye’s inflation will likely soften moderately to around 30.5% in January despite some noise is expected in next two months' readings as upside-tilted inflation risks will continue to limit the downward trend during the ongoing

Preview: Due February 2 - U.S. January ISM Manufacturing - Improved if still short of neutral

January 27, 2026 4:55 PM UTC

We expect January’s ISM manufacturing index to pick up to 49.0 from 47.9, still below neutral but the strongest since September after falling to its lowest level since October 2024 in December.

FOMC Preview for January 28: No change with early 2026 data awaited

January 22, 2026 6:42 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on January 28 and rates look set to be left at 3.5-3.75%, and while rates are likely to move lower in 2026, they are unlikely to give many hints over what is likely in March, with future decisions dependent on data. The FOMC will not update its economic forecasts or dots at this meeti

Preview: Due January 23 - U.S. January S and P PMIs - Rebounding after December dips

January 22, 2026 2:43 PM UTC

We expect some improvement in January’s S and P PMIs, largely reversing slippage in December, manufacturing to 52.5 from 51.8  and services to 54.0 from 52.5.

Preview: Due January 22 - U.S. Final (Second) Estimate Q3 GDP - Marginally stronger still

January 21, 2026 3:25 PM UTC

We expect a marginal upward revision to Q3 GDP to 4.4% from an already strong 4.3%. The only component we are expecting a revision to is inventories, on an upward revision to September retail inventories led by autos.

Preview: Due January 22 - U.S. October and November Personal Income and Spending - Heading for annualized Q4 gains a little above 2.0%

January 21, 2026 1:58 PM UTC

January 22 will see a personal income and spending report for both October and November. We expect personal income to rise by 0.4% in October and 0.5% in November and  personal spending to rise by 0.2% in October and 0.5% in November. For core PCE prices, we expect gains of 0.2% in October and 0.1%

Preview: Due January 30 - U.S. December PPI - Rebound in trade to bring an above trend month

January 20, 2026 6:07 PM UTC

Despite signs in the CPI that inflationary pressure has slowed in Q4, we expect December PPI to show above trend gains of 0.4% both overall and ex food and energy. Ex food energy and trade however we expect a moderate gain of 0.2%, which would match November’s outcome in that series.