Preview: Due September 3 - U.S. July Trade Balance - Advance goods data suggests widest post-tariff deficit

September 2, 2026 12:54 PM UTC

We expect a July trade deficit of $90.5bn, up from $73.3bn in June and the widest since the record pre-tariff deficit of $133.0bn seen in March 2025. The deficit will also be lower than those of December 2024 and January and February of 2025, but before then the last deficit that exceeded our foreca

Preview: Due September 2 - U.S. August ADP Employment - Another subdued month, this time underperforming payrolls

September 1, 2026 11:30 AM UTC

We expect a 50k increase in August’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which is below our forecast for August’s private sector non-farm payroll of 75k (we also expect overall payrolls to rise by 75k). This would be the first ADP underperformance of payrolls in four months.

Preview: Due September 10 - U.S. August PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant

August 31, 2026 5:59 PM UTC

We expect August PPI to increase by 0.4% overall with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. We expect a 2.2% increase in energy, not fully erasing a 3.5% July decline, and a 0.3% correction higher in food after a sharp 0.9% decline in July.

Preview: Due September 10 - U.S. August PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant

August 31, 2026 5:59 PM UTC

We expect August PPI to increase by 0.4% overall with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. We expect a 2.2% increase in energy, not fully erasing a 3.5% July decline, and a 0.3% correction higher in food after a sharp 0.9% decline in July.

Preview: Due September 11 - U.S. August CPI - Firmer on energy and lodging away from home

August 31, 2026 1:57 PM UTC

We expect a slightly stronger US CPI in August, up by 0.4% overall, lifted by energy, and 0.3% ex food and energy, lifted by a correction higher in lodging away from home. Before rounding we expect overall CPI to rise by 0.37% and ex food and energy CPI to rise by 0.26%. Despite a firmer monthly cor

Preview: Due September 11 - U.S. August CPI - Firmer on energy and lodging away from home

August 31, 2026 1:55 PM UTC

We expect a slightly stronger US CPI in August, up by 0.4% overall, lifted by energy, and 0.3% ex food and energy, lifted by a correction higher in lodging away from home. Before rounding we expect overall CPI to rise by 0.37% and ex food and energy CPI to rise by 0.26%. Despite a firmer monthly cor

Bank of Canada Preview for September 2: Risks on both sides argue for steady policy

August 28, 2026 1:36 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on September 2 and looks set to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. While the meeting will come at a time of heightened trade tensions with the United States, we do not expect any hints that near term easing will be considered. Middle East risk and Canadian trade retaliation pos

Bank of Canada Preview for September 2: Risks on both sides argue for steady policy

August 28, 2026 1:35 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on September 2 and looks set to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. While the meeting will come at a time of heightened trade tensions with the United States, we do not expect any hints that near term easing will be considered. Middle East risk and Canadian trade retaliation pos

Preview: Due August 27 - U.S. July Advance Goods Trade Balance - Wider in nominal and real terms

August 26, 2026 2:08 PM UTC

We expect a July advance goods trade deficit of $105.0bn, up from $101.4bn in June but slightly below the $105.3bn seen in May. May saw the widest deficit since the record $158.7bn of March 2025 immediately before the reciprocal tariffs were announced. 

Preview: Due August 25 - U.S. July New Home Sales - Remaining soft

August 24, 2026 3:23 PM UTC

We expect July new home sales to be little changed at 620k, which would be down 1.3% from June if June is unrevised. This would still sustain step down in trend in 2026 to date, with movements in the preceding two years outside a 650-700k range having tended to be brief.

Preview: Due September 4 - U.S. August Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Corrections from recent payroll weakness and unemployment declines

August 20, 2026 4:58 PM UTC

We expect August’s non-farm payroll to rise by 75k both overall and in the private sector, still moderate but the strongest in both series since April. We however expect unemployment to correct higher to 4.2% after falling to 4.1% in July from 4.2% in June and before that three straight months at

Preview: Due August 27 - U.S. July Advance Goods Trade Balance - Wider in nominal and real terms

August 18, 2026 3:39 PM UTC

We expect a July advance goods trade deficit of $105.0bn, up from $101.4bn in June but slightly below the $105.3bn seen in May. May saw the widest deficit since the record $158.7bn of March 2025 immediately before the reciprocal tariffs were announced. 

Preview: Due August 18 - U.S. July Housing Starts and Permits - Modest declines, consistent with trend

August 17, 2026 2:26 PM UTC

We expect July housing starts to fall by 4.7% to 1360k while permits fall by 0.3% to 1370k. Trends in the housing sector appear to be showing a modest loss of momentum entering Q3.

Preview: Due August 26 - U.S. July Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, savings finding a base

August 14, 2026 2:42 PM UTC

We expect July PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy. We expect a modest 0.2% increase in personal income, outperforming an unchanged outcome from personal spending.

Preview: Due August 17 - Canada July CPI - Slightly firmer on energy but with stable core rates

August 14, 2026 1:50 PM UTC

We expect July Canadian CPI to correct higher to 2.9% yr/yr from June’s 2.8% which slipped significantly from May’s 3.2%, on a modest increase in gasoline prices after a sharp fall in June. However, we expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be unchanged from June, with CPI-Median at 1.9%, C

Preview: Due August 14 - U.S. July Retail Sales - Some loss of momentum, but still resilient

August 13, 2026 2:02 PM UTC

We expect June retail sales to unchanged overall, the weakest since a matching January, with a 0.2% increase ex autos, which would reverse a 0.2% June decline. Ex auto and gasoline we expect a second straight 0.4% increase.

Preview: Due August 25 - U.S. July New Home Sales - Remaining soft

August 12, 2026 3:10 PM UTC

We expect July new home sales to be little changed at 620k, which would be down 1.3% from June if June is unrevised. This would still sustain step down in trend in 2026 to date, with movements in the preceding two years outside a 650-700k range having tended to be brief.

Preview: Due August 13 - U.S. July PPI - Prices seen subdued when data was surveyed

August 12, 2026 2:57 PM UTC

We expect July’s PPI to reflect more the more optimistic view of the Middle East seen at the start of the month than the riskier one later in the month. We expect gains of 0.1% overall, 0.3% ex food and energy and 0.2% ex food and trade, mostly subdued, if stronger than respective June outcomes of

Preview: Due August 13 - U.S. July PPI - Prices seen subdued when data was surveyed

August 12, 2026 2:57 PM UTC

We expect July’s PPI to reflect more the more optimistic view of the Middle East seen at the start of the month than the riskier one later in the month. We expect gains of 0.1% overall, 0.3% ex food and energy and 0.2% ex food and trade, mostly subdued, if stronger than respective June outcomes of

Preview: Due August 12 - U.S. July CPI - Another subdued month, if less so than June

August 11, 2026 12:50 PM UTC

We expect a subdued July CPI, up by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being only 0.06% and 0.19%. This will however be less weak than June’s 0.4% decline overall, with the June core rate ex food and energy having been unchanged.

Preview: Due August 12 - U.S. July CPI - Another subdued month, if less so than June

August 11, 2026 12:49 PM UTC

We expect a subdued July CPI, up by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being only 0.06% and 0.19%. This will however be less weak than June’s 0.4% decline overall, with the June core rate ex food and energy having been unchanged.

Preview: Due August 11 - U.S. July Existing Home Sales - Surveys suggest slippage

August 10, 2026 1:20 PM UTC

We expect July existing home sales to see a second straight monthly fall, by 1.5% to 4.03m, as fears that the next Fed move is likely to be a hike pick up, while remaining in the year to date range.

Preview: Due August 18 - U.S. July Housing Starts and Permits - Modest declines, consistent with trend

August 7, 2026 3:07 PM UTC

We expect July housing starts to fall by 4.7% to 1360k while permits fall by 0.3% to 1370k. Trends in the housing sector appear to be showing a modest loss of momentum entering Q3.

Preview: Due August 7 - U.S. July Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than June, but with a rise in unemployment

August 6, 2026 1:27 PM UTC

We expect July’s non-farm payroll to rise by 120k overall and by 110k in the private sector, a significant improvement from June’s respective gains of 57k and 49k but largely explained by a recovery in leisure and hospitality. We expect unemployment to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, reversing a June de

Preview: Due August 7 - U.S. July Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than June, but with a rise in unemployment

August 6, 2026 1:27 PM UTC

We expect July’s non-farm payroll to rise by 120k overall and by 110k in the private sector, a significant improvement from June’s respective gains of 57k and 49k but largely explained by a recovery in leisure and hospitality. We expect unemployment to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, reversing a June de

Preview: Due August 7 - Canada July Employment - Another positive month, but tariffs a risk going forward

August 6, 2026 11:53 AM UTC

We expect Canadian employment to increase by 20k in July, a third straight gain, similar to June’s 18.2k though well below May’s 87.8k which was correcting preceding weakness. We expect unemployment to match June’s 6.5% but before rounding to fall to 6.451% from 6.498%.

Preview: Due August 14 - U.S. July Retail Sales - Some loss of momentum, but still resilient

August 5, 2026 3:46 PM UTC

We expect June retail sales to unchanged overall, the weakest since a matching January, with a 0.2% increase ex autos, which would reverse a 0.2% June decline. Ex auto and gasoline we expect a second straight 0.4% increase.