Data Previews
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August 20, 2026
Preview: Due September 4 - Canada August Employment - A moderate month after a very strong one
August 20, 2026 7:27 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 20k in August, a moderate gain to follow a very strong 75.1k in July, similar to the moderate 18.2k increase in June that followed a very strong rise of 87.8k in May. We expect unemployment to hold at 6.4%, after three straight declines.
Preview: Due September 4 - U.S. August Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Corrections from recent payroll weakness and unemployment declines
August 20, 2026 4:58 PM UTC
We expect August’s non-farm payroll to rise by 75k both overall and in the private sector, still moderate but the strongest in both series since April. We however expect unemployment to correct higher to 4.2% after falling to 4.1% in July from 4.2% in June and before that three straight months at
Preview: Due September 4 - U.S. August Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Corrections from recent payroll weakness and unemployment declines
August 20, 2026 4:58 PM UTC
We expect August’s non-farm payroll to rise by 75k both overall and in the private sector, still moderate but the strongest in both series since April. We however expect unemployment to correct higher to 4.2% after falling to 4.1% in July from 4.2% in June and before that three straight months at
August 18, 2026
Preview: Due August 27 - U.S. July Advance Goods Trade Balance - Wider in nominal and real terms
August 18, 2026 3:39 PM UTC
We expect a July advance goods trade deficit of $105.0bn, up from $101.4bn in June but slightly below the $105.3bn seen in May. May saw the widest deficit since the record $158.7bn of March 2025 immediately before the reciprocal tariffs were announced.
August 17, 2026
Preview: Due August 18 - U.S. July Housing Starts and Permits - Modest declines, consistent with trend
August 17, 2026 2:26 PM UTC
We expect July housing starts to fall by 4.7% to 1360k while permits fall by 0.3% to 1370k. Trends in the housing sector appear to be showing a modest loss of momentum entering Q3.
August 14, 2026
Preview: Due August 26 - U.S. July Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, savings finding a base
August 14, 2026 2:42 PM UTC
We expect July PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy. We expect a modest 0.2% increase in personal income, outperforming an unchanged outcome from personal spending.
Preview: Due August 26 - U.S. July Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, savings finding a base
August 14, 2026 2:42 PM UTC
We expect July PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy. We expect a modest 0.2% increase in personal income, outperforming an unchanged outcome from personal spending.
Preview: Due August 17 - Canada July CPI - Slightly firmer on energy but with stable core rates
August 14, 2026 1:50 PM UTC
We expect July Canadian CPI to correct higher to 2.9% yr/yr from June’s 2.8% which slipped significantly from May’s 3.2%, on a modest increase in gasoline prices after a sharp fall in June. However, we expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be unchanged from June, with CPI-Median at 1.9%, C
August 13, 2026
Preview: Due August 26 - U.S. July Durable Goods Orders - Still firm, if with some slowing on prices
August 13, 2026 2:51 PM UTC
We expect a 0.6% increase in July durable goods orders with a 0.7% increase ex defense and a 0.8% increase ex transport. This will suggest some loss of what remains healthy underlying momentum, though the slowing probably reflects prices more than volumes.
Preview: Due August 14 - U.S. July Retail Sales - Some loss of momentum, but still resilient
August 13, 2026 2:03 PM UTC
We expect June retail sales to unchanged overall, the weakest since a matching January, with a 0.2% increase ex autos, which would reverse a 0.2% June decline. Ex auto and gasoline we expect a second straight 0.4% increase.
Preview: Due August 14 - U.S. July Retail Sales - Some loss of momentum, but still resilient
August 13, 2026 2:02 PM UTC
We expect June retail sales to unchanged overall, the weakest since a matching January, with a 0.2% increase ex autos, which would reverse a 0.2% June decline. Ex auto and gasoline we expect a second straight 0.4% increase.
August 12, 2026
Preview: Due August 25 - U.S. July New Home Sales - Remaining soft
August 12, 2026 3:10 PM UTC
We expect July new home sales to be little changed at 620k, which would be down 1.3% from June if June is unrevised. This would still sustain step down in trend in 2026 to date, with movements in the preceding two years outside a 650-700k range having tended to be brief.
Preview: Due August 13 - U.S. July PPI - Prices seen subdued when data was surveyed
August 12, 2026 2:57 PM UTC
We expect July’s PPI to reflect more the more optimistic view of the Middle East seen at the start of the month than the riskier one later in the month. We expect gains of 0.1% overall, 0.3% ex food and energy and 0.2% ex food and trade, mostly subdued, if stronger than respective June outcomes of
Preview: Due August 13 - U.S. July PPI - Prices seen subdued when data was surveyed
August 12, 2026 2:57 PM UTC
We expect July’s PPI to reflect more the more optimistic view of the Middle East seen at the start of the month than the riskier one later in the month. We expect gains of 0.1% overall, 0.3% ex food and energy and 0.2% ex food and trade, mostly subdued, if stronger than respective June outcomes of
August 11, 2026
Preview: Due August 12 - U.S. July CPI - Another subdued month, if less so than June
August 11, 2026 12:50 PM UTC
We expect a subdued July CPI, up by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being only 0.06% and 0.19%. This will however be less weak than June’s 0.4% decline overall, with the June core rate ex food and energy having been unchanged.
Preview: Due August 12 - U.S. July CPI - Another subdued month, if less so than June
August 11, 2026 12:49 PM UTC
We expect a subdued July CPI, up by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being only 0.06% and 0.19%. This will however be less weak than June’s 0.4% decline overall, with the June core rate ex food and energy having been unchanged.
August 10, 2026
Preview: Due August 11 - U.S. July Existing Home Sales - Surveys suggest slippage
August 10, 2026 1:20 PM UTC
We expect July existing home sales to see a second straight monthly fall, by 1.5% to 4.03m, as fears that the next Fed move is likely to be a hike pick up, while remaining in the year to date range.
August 07, 2026
Preview: Due August 18 - U.S. July Housing Starts and Permits - Modest declines, consistent with trend
August 7, 2026 3:07 PM UTC
We expect July housing starts to fall by 4.7% to 1360k while permits fall by 0.3% to 1370k. Trends in the housing sector appear to be showing a modest loss of momentum entering Q3.
August 06, 2026
Preview: Due August 7 - U.S. July Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than June, but with a rise in unemployment
August 6, 2026 1:27 PM UTC
We expect July’s non-farm payroll to rise by 120k overall and by 110k in the private sector, a significant improvement from June’s respective gains of 57k and 49k but largely explained by a recovery in leisure and hospitality. We expect unemployment to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, reversing a June de
Preview: Due August 7 - U.S. July Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than June, but with a rise in unemployment
August 6, 2026 1:27 PM UTC
We expect July’s non-farm payroll to rise by 120k overall and by 110k in the private sector, a significant improvement from June’s respective gains of 57k and 49k but largely explained by a recovery in leisure and hospitality. We expect unemployment to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, reversing a June de
Preview: Due August 7 - Canada July Employment - Another positive month, but tariffs a risk going forward
August 6, 2026 11:53 AM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 20k in July, a third straight gain, similar to June’s 18.2k though well below May’s 87.8k which was correcting preceding weakness. We expect unemployment to match June’s 6.5% but before rounding to fall to 6.451% from 6.498%.
August 05, 2026
Preview: Due August 14 - U.S. July Retail Sales - Some loss of momentum, but still resilient
August 5, 2026 3:46 PM UTC
We expect June retail sales to unchanged overall, the weakest since a matching January, with a 0.2% increase ex autos, which would reverse a 0.2% June decline. Ex auto and gasoline we expect a second straight 0.4% increase.
Preview: Due August 14 - U.S. July Retail Sales - Some loss of momentum, but still resilient
August 5, 2026 3:46 PM UTC
We expect June retail sales to unchanged overall, the weakest since a matching January, with a 0.2% increase ex autos, which would reverse a 0.2% June decline. Ex auto and gasoline we expect a second straight 0.4% increase.
August 04, 2026
Preview: Due August 28 - Canada Q2/June GDP - Quarterly rebound seen largely on net exports
August 4, 2026 4:13 PM UTC
We expect Q3 Canadian GDP to increase by 3.3% annualized, in line with what monthly data is implying, assuming the preliminary estimate for a 0.2% increase in June is accurate and gains of 0.3% in May and 0.6% in April are unrevised. This will mark a return to growth after two straight negative quar
Preview: Due August 5 - U.S. July ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data suggests some slowing
August 4, 2026 11:05 AM UTC
We expect a 65k increase in July’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which is well below our forecast for July’s private sector non-farm payroll of 110k (we expect overall payrolls to rise by 120k). It is however similar to June’s non-farm payroll, which rose by 57k and 49k in the pr
August 03, 2026
Preview: Due August 13 - U.S. July PPI - Prices seen subdued when data was surveyed
August 3, 2026 1:12 PM UTC
We expect July’s PPI to reflect more the more optimistic view of the Middle East seen at the start of the month than the riskier one later in the month. We expect gains of 0.1% overall, 0.3% ex food and energy and 0.2% ex food and trade, mostly subdued, if stronger than respective June outcomes of
Preview: Due August 13 - U.S. July PPI - Prices seen subdued when data was surveyed
August 3, 2026 1:12 PM UTC
We expect July’s PPI to reflect more the more optimistic view of the Middle East seen at the start of the month than the riskier one later in the month. We expect gains of 0.1% overall, 0.3% ex food and energy and 0.2% ex food and trade, mostly subdued, if stronger than respective June outcomes of
Preview: Due August 4 - U.S. June Trade Balance - Deficit to correct lower, but remain large
August 3, 2026 12:40 PM UTC
We expect a June trade deficit of $73.5bn, down from $77.6bn in May which was the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit in March 2025, but still significantly above the deficits seen in the first four months of 2026, each of which was close to $55bn.
July 31, 2026
Preview: Due August 17 - Canada July CPI - Slightly firmer on energy but with stable core rates
July 31, 2026 7:03 PM UTC
We expect July Canadian CPI to correct higher to 2.9% yr/yr from June’s 2.8% which slipped significantly from May’s 3.2%, on a modest increase in gasoline prices after a sharp fall in June. However, we expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be unchanged from June, with CPI-Median at 1.9%, C
Preview: Due August 12 - U.S. July CPI - Another subdued month, if less so than June
July 31, 2026 3:52 PM UTC
We expect a subdued July CPI, up by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being only 0.06% and 0.19%. This will however be less weak than June’s 0.4% decline overall, with the June core rate ex food and energy having been unchanged.
Preview: Due August 12 - U.S. July CPI - Another subdued month, if less so than June
July 31, 2026 3:51 PM UTC
We expect a subdued July CPI, up by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being only 0.06% and 0.19%. This will however be less weak than June’s 0.4% decline overall, with the June core rate ex food and energy having been unchanged.
July 30, 2026
Preview: Due August 11 - U.S. July Existing Home Sales - Surveys suggest slippage
July 30, 2026 7:43 PM UTC
We expect July existing home sales to see a second straight monthly fall, by 1.5% to 4.03m, as fears that the next Fed move is likely to be a hike pick up, while remaining in the year to date range.
Preview: Due August 4 - U.S. June Trade Balance - Deficit to correct lower, but remain large
July 30, 2026 2:38 PM UTC
We expect a June trade deficit of $73.5bn, down from $77.6bn in May which was the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit in March 2025, but still significantly above the deficits seen in the first four months of 2026, each of which was close to $55bn.
Preview: Due July 31 - U.S. Q2 Employment Cost Index - Losing momentum
July 30, 2026 1:57 PM UTC
We look for the Q2 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.7%, slower than Q1’s 0.9% but matching the Q4 outcome. This would see the yr/yr pace slow to 3.2% from 3.4%, reaching its slowest since Q2 2021.
July 29, 2026
Preview: Due July 30 - U.S. June Personal Income and Spending - PCE Prices not quite as soft as CPI
July 29, 2026 12:47 PM UTC
June’s personal income and spending report may be overshadowed by the Q2 GDP report released at the same time. We expect a subdued 0.1% increase in core PCE prices, with overall PCE prices down by 0.1%, leaving gains of 0.3% in both personal income and personal spending looking respectable in real
Preview: Due July 30 - U.S. June Personal Income and Spending - PCE Prices not quite as soft as CPI
July 29, 2026 12:46 PM UTC
June’s personal income and spending report may be overshadowed by the Q2 GDP report released at the same time. We expect a subdued 0.1% increase in core PCE prices, with overall PCE prices down by 0.1%, leaving gains of 0.3% in both personal income and personal spending looking respectable in real
July 28, 2026
Preview: Due August 5 - U.S. July ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data suggests some slowing
July 28, 2026 5:33 PM UTC
We expect a 65k increase in July’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which is well below our forecast for July’s private sector non-farm payroll of 110k (we expect overall payrolls to rise by 120k). It is however similar to June’s non-farm payroll, which rose by 57k and 49k in the pr
Preview: Due August 7 - U.S. July Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than June, but with a rise in unemployment
July 28, 2026 3:50 PM UTC
We expect July’s non-farm payroll to rise by 120k overall and by 110k in the private sector, a significant improvement from June’s respective gains of 57k and 49k but largely explained by a recovery in leisure and hospitality. We expect unemployment to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, reversing a June de
Preview: Due August 7 - U.S. July Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than June, but with a rise in unemployment
July 28, 2026 3:49 PM UTC
We expect July’s non-farm payroll to rise by 120k overall and by 110k in the private sector, a significant improvement from June’s respective gains of 57k and 49k but largely explained by a recovery in leisure and hospitality. We expect unemployment to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, reversing a June de
July 27, 2026
Preview: Due August 7 - Canada July Employment - Another positive month, but tariffs a risk going forward
July 27, 2026 3:32 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 20k in July, a third straight gain, similar to June’s 18.2k though well below May’s 87.8k which was correcting preceding weakness. We expect unemployment to match June’s 6.5% but before rounding to fall to 6.451% from 6.498%.
Preview: Due July 28 - U.S. June Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to correct lower, but remain large
July 27, 2026 12:08 PM UTC
We expect an advance June trade deficit of $100.8bn, down from $105.9bn in May which was the widest since a record pre-tariff deficit in March 2025, but still significantly above the deficits seen in the first four months of 2026.