Preview: Due December 3 - U.S. November ADP Employment - Weekly data pointing to a decline
Weekly ADP data, showing an average weekly job loss of 13.5k in the four weeks to November 8, suggests a weak monthly report from ADP, covering the four weeks to November 15. We expect a decline of 50k. ADP data covers only the private sector.
Weekly initial claims have been fairly stable but continued claims have been trending higher, which together can be seen as consistent with a slight declining employment, with limited layoffs slightly exceeding limited hiring.
The ADP breakdown is likely to shows broad based if modest losses, with goods declining by 15k after a 9k October increase and services falling by 35k after a 32k October increase.
ADP data was positive in October but negative in September, contrasting positive September private sector non-farm payrolls. September’s payroll increase will be difficult to sustain. Payrolls for both October and November are due on December 16.
