Preview: Due January 7 - U.S. December ADP Employment - Weekly data suggests November's decline will reverse
Weekly ADP data, showing an average weekly job increase of 11.5k in the four weeks to December 6, suggests a rebound in the December ADP employment report from a negative November, we expect by 50k, which would more than fully reverse November’s 32k decline while leaving trend subdued.
The weekly ADP data covers the week before December’s survey week for the monthly data. November’s weekly ADP data were signaling a negative ADP report in the week before November’s ADP report was surveyed. Initial and continued claims are also suggesting stronger data, even when taking into account probable holiday seasonal adjustment issues.
ADP data covers only the private sector. We expect December’s non-farm payroll to show gains of 75k both overall and in the private sector, which would maintain a recent tendency for payrolls to outperform ADP data, but the outperformance would be significantly less than November’s 100k. Fed’s Powell has suggested that recent non-farm payroll data may be overstated.
