Preview: Due December 11 - U.S. September Trade Balance - Canadian data suggests a wider deficit
We expect a September trade deficit of $70.5bn, up sharply from August’s $59.6bn but still below July’s $78.2bn. We expect exports to fall by 0.5% after a 0.1% August increase while imports rise by 2.8% after a 5.1% July decline. This could weigh on estimates for Q3 GDP, now due on December 23.
Q3 current account and GDP data from Canada imply a sharp fall in Canada’s deficit in September, which raises risk for an increase in the US deficit. Canada will release its September trade data, uses inputs from the US, on December 11 with the US trade data. If Canada’s deficit does not narrow sharply, it could erase questions about the accuracy of its stronger than expected Q3 GDP data.
We expect US goods exports to fall by 1,0% after a 0.3% August decline with US goods imports bounce by 3.5% after a 6.6% August decline. There is no advance US goods data for September to base our forecast on this month. Boeing data however suggests a fall in aircraft exports. Export and import prices were both unchanged in September, so the changes will be on volumes. We expect services to see gains of 0.5% in both exports and imports, lifting the services surplus to $26.2bn from $26.1bn.
