Preview: Due November 26 - U.S. September Durable Goods Orders - Trend modestly positive
We expect September durable goods orders to increase by 1.4% with a 0.5% increase ex transport, a fifth straight modest rise in the latter showing a clearly if not strongly positive trend.
A stronger month for Boeing orders is set to lift aircraft, volatile in recent months, though October data from Boeing suggest aircraft will slip back in October. Gains in aircraft are likely to outweigh slippage in autos.
We expect orders ex defense to rise by 2.1%, similar to a 1.9% August increase, outperforming the total after underperforming in August.
Manufacturing surveys have been mixed and generally unimpressive but have on balance seen some improvement in recent months suggesting a recent modest acceleration in the underlying ex transport series can be sustained.
We expect non-defense capital orders ex aircraft, a key indicator of business investment, to match the ex-transport increase with a rise of 0.5%. This would be a third straight increase, signaling a healthy Q3.