Preview: Due January 5 - U.S. December ISM Manufacturing - Stable slightly short of neutral
We expect December’s ISM manufacturing index to remain at November’s level of 48.2, which was down from 48.7 in October and the weakest since July. Trend is fairly stable slightly below neutral.
December’s S and P and Kansas City Fed manufacturing indices slipped but remain positive. The Philly Fed, Dallas Fed and Empire State indices were weaker and negative. The Richmond Fed and Chicago PMI data remained negative, but were less so.
We expect ISM detail to show gains in new orders, employment and deliveries after weaker November readings offset by slippage in production and inventories after stronger October readings.
Prices paid do not contribute to the composite and here we see a slowing to 55.0 from 58.5 to reach the lowest level since January and suggesting the tariff impact is now fading.
