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September 19, 2024 8:57 AM UTC
As with the five previous policy meetings, the Norges Bank kept its policy rate at 4.5% and equally unsurprising moderated its previous hawkish rhetoric - slightly. While it still fought against market expectations by suggesting policy will remain on hold until year end it did drop its recent stress
September 18, 2024 7:39 PM UTC
The 50bps cut in the Fed Funds rate to 4.75-5.00% will likely be followed with two 25bps cuts in November and December. For 2025, we now look for 125bps rather than 150bps, given our soft landing view and also the 50bps being delivered at the September meeting. This would be a 3.00-3.25% Fed Funds
September 18, 2024 1:37 PM UTC
We expect September’s S and P PMIs to show modest improvements, manufacturing to a still negative 48.5 from August’s eight-month low of 47.9, 48.5 from 49.5, and services to 56.0 from 55.7, reaching the highest level since March 2022.
September 18, 2024 1:16 PM UTC
We expect a 2.5% decline in August existing home sales outcome to 3.85m, resuming a negative trend after a 1.3% July rise corrected a steep 5.1% decline in June. August’s level would be the weakest since a matching low in October 2023.
September 17, 2024 3:42 PM UTC
We expect only a marginal downward revision to 2.9% in the third (final) estimate of Q2 GDP from the second (preliminary) estimate of 3.0%. However the data will include historical revisions for the last five years, and they should be closely watched.
September 17, 2024 3:11 PM UTC
We expect August housing starts to correct higher by 5.0% to 1300k after a 6.8% July decline that may have been exaggerated by bad weather. However we expect a 1.1% decline in permits to 1390k to extend a 3.3% decline seen in July.
September 16, 2024 1:05 PM UTC
We expect August Canadian CPI to slip to 2.1% yr/yr from 2.5% as year ago strength drops out, reaching its lowest level since February 2021. While progress on the Bank of Canada’s core rates will be a little less sharp, we expect the rates to continue moving lower.
September 13, 2024 5:42 PM UTC
We expect an advance August goods trade deficit of $100.6bn, below the $102.8bn seen in July which was the widest since March 2022 but still consistent with a deteriorating underlying trend.
September 12, 2024 7:09 PM UTC
Bottom line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will likely start cutting the key rate at the upcoming MPC meeting on September 19 and decrease the rate from 8.25% to 8.0% given recent fall in inflation, suspended power cuts (loadshedding) after March, deceleration in inflation expectations and a rel
September 11, 2024 3:35 PM UTC
The FOMC meets on September 18 and with recent data raising concern about emerging labor market weakness, and inflation down but not defeated, a cautious 25bps easing of the Fed Funds target, to 5.0-5.25% appears very likely. The statement is likely to leave the Fed’s options open to either accele
September 10, 2024 12:39 PM UTC
We expect August’s CPI to increase by 0.2% both overall and ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being 0.18% and 0.21%. Such an ex food and energy rate would be slightly stronger before rounding than in the preceding three months, though not strong enough to trouble the
September 9, 2024 10:49 AM UTC
The July CPI was notable for the clear and larger-than-expected fall in services inflation, one driven by a fall in restaurant/hotel inflation, this often seen as a bellwether indicator of price persistence. Indeed, services inflation fell 0.5 ppt to 5.2%, a two-year low and well below the BoE pro
September 6, 2024 6:26 PM UTC
We expect a 2.5% decline in August existing home sales outcome to 3.85m, resuming a negative trend after a 1.3% July rise corrected a steep 5.1% decline in June. August’s level would be the weakest since a matching low in October 2023.
September 6, 2024 5:33 PM UTC
We expect August housing starts to correct higher by 5.0% to 1300k after a 6.8% July decline that may have been exaggerated by bad weather. However we expect a 1.1% decline in permits to 1390k to extend a 3.3% decline seen in July.
September 5, 2024 6:45 PM UTC
We expect August Canadian CPI to slip to 2.1% yr/yr from 2.5% as year ago strength drops out, reaching its lowest level since February 2021. While progress on the Bank of Canada’s core rates will be a little less sharp, we expect the rates to continue moving lower.
September 5, 2024 2:55 PM UTC
We expect August’s non-farm payroll to rise by 160k, 135k in the private sector, both slightly stronger than respective July gains of 114k and 97k that were probably restrained by weather but below 3-month averages of 170k and 146k, and thus implying a continued modest slowing in trend. We expect
September 4, 2024 1:18 PM UTC
We expect August’s ISM services index to slip marginally to 51.0 from 51.4. This would be consistent with a gentle underlying slowing in trend that has been visible over the last two years, albeit with plenty of volatility around the gentle slowing in trend.
September 4, 2024 1:07 PM UTC
We expect a 130k increase in August’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, slightly below the 135k we expect for private sector non-farm payrolls. The two series have become more consistent with each other in recent months. We expect overall non-farm payrolls to rise by 160k. Trend
September 3, 2024 2:51 PM UTC
We expect a 0.1% increase in August PPI, matching the outcome of July, while the core rates ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade both increase by 0.2%, all suggesting a subdued underlying picture.
September 3, 2024 9:23 AM UTC
It does seem as if the economy is going to show more positive signs with the July GDP data. Indeed, we see a 0.2% m/m rise, albeit with the data still showing volatility. Indeed, GDP growth has been positive in only one of the three months of the last quarter, having been flat in June. Regardl
August 30, 2024 3:19 PM UTC
The Bank of Canada meets on September 4 and a third straight easing, by 25bs to 4.25%, looks likely. This meeting will not see a quarterly Monetary Policy Report so the BoC will not update its forecasts from those made in July. However continued progress in reducing inflation and GDP growth, while i
August 29, 2024 3:32 PM UTC
We expect July’s trade deficit to increase to $79.2bn from June’s $73.1bn, resuming a deteriorating trend after a modest improvement seen in June with the deficit reaching its highest level since June 2022.
August 29, 2024 1:46 PM UTC
We expect Q2 Canadian GDP to rise by 2.0% annualized, a little above a 1.5% estimate made with the Bank of Canada’s July Monetary Policy Report and s second straight quarter of moderate growth after a near flat second half of 2023. We expect a 0.1% increase in June GDP, in line with a preliminary
August 28, 2024 3:00 PM UTC
We expect August’s ISM services index to slip marginally to 51.0 from 51.4. This would be consistent with a gentle underlying slowing in trend that has been visible over the last two years, albeit with plenty of volatility around the gentle slowing in trend.
August 28, 2024 12:38 PM UTC
We expect July’s advance goods trade deficit to increase to $98.7bn from June’s 96.6bn, leaving it slightly below the May deficit of $99.1bn which was the highest since May 2022.
August 27, 2024 4:37 PM UTC
We expect a 130k increase in August’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, slightly below the 135k we expect for private sector non-farm payrolls. The two series have become more consistent with each other in recent months. We expect overall non-farm payrolls to rise by 160k. Trend
August 26, 2024 6:04 AM UTC
India’s Q1 FY25 (Apr-Jun) GDP is expected to moderateto 7% yr/yr. The slowdown is expected on the back of limited government spending and sluggish urban demand. Additionally, high interest rates and inflation are expected to have been a drag on growth.