Preview: Due August 15 - U.S. July Retail Sales - Trend losing momentum

August 14, 2025 1:31 PM UTC

We expect a 0.1% increase in July retail sales to follow two straight declines, with 0.1% decline ex autos and an unchanged outcome ex autos and gasoline. This would restore a slowing trend after June saw a correction from declines in April and May.

UK GDP Review: Fresh Upside Growth Surprise But Partly Inventory Driven?

August 14, 2025 7:02 AM UTC

To what extent better in June GDP, not least it having been the warmest even such month in England, lay behind the fresh upside surprise that saw the economy grow 0.4%, twice generally expected and with the falls of the two previous months pared back so that a clearer uptrend has emerged (Figure 1).

Preview: Due August 14 - U.S. July PPI - Pattern of weak monthly data but upward back month revisions

August 13, 2025 2:59 PM UTC

We expect July PPI to rise by a modest 0.1% overall and in each of the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This would follow unchanged outcomes in all three indices in June, but risk is that those indices will be revised higher, offsetting weakness in July. 

India CPI Review: Headline inflation drops sharply on account of food prices

August 13, 2025 7:38 AM UTC

India’s retail inflation fell to 1.55% yr/yr in July 2025, its lowest since 2017 and below the RBI’s 2–6% target band for the first time in over six years. The drop was driven by a sharp contraction in food prices, even as edible oil and fruit inflation remained elevated. With inflation well b

Preview: Due August 26 - U.S. July Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to return to normal, trend marginally positive

August 12, 2025 4:44 PM UTC

We expect July durable goods orders to fall by 4.5%, extending a 9.4% decline in June, but still not quite fully reversing a 16.5% surge in May. Aircraft will continue to lead the moves. Ex transport we expect a 0.1% increase, in line with a trend that is now marginally positive.

Preview: Due August 29 - Canada Q2/June GDP - Exports plunge to send GDP lower

August 11, 2025 7:54 PM UTC

We expect Q2 Canadian GDP to fall by 1.0% annualized after five straight gains marginally above 2.0%. This would be slightly stronger than a Bank of Canada forecast of -1.5% but weaker than what monthly GDP data is likely to imply for the quarter, with June seen rising by 0.1%.

UK CPI Preview (Aug 20): Services Inflation Fall Afresh r as Headline Stabilises?

August 11, 2025 2:24 PM UTC

After the upside (and broad) June CPI surprise, we see CPI inflation steady at 3.6% in July, 0.2 ppt below BoE thinking.  Our relatively lower estimate factors in lower services inflation (Figure 1) and a fall back in that for food, the former allowing the core rate to unwind the increase to 3.7% s

Preview: Due August 12 - U.S. July CPI - Tariff impact slowly building

August 11, 2025 1:10 PM UTC

We expect July CPI to increase by 0.2% overall and by 0.3% ex food and energy, with the overall pace close to 0.2% even before rounding but the core rate rounded up from 0.26%. This would still be the strongest core rate since January and reflect a further feed through of tariffs, something that is

Preview: Due August 21 - U.S. August S&P PMIs - Weaker but not shockingly so

August 6, 2025 3:16 PM UTC

We expect August’s S and P PMIs to show manufacturing only marginally extending a July dip, to 49.5 from 49.8, while services reverse a surprising July bounce, falling to 53.0 from 55.7.

UK GDP Preview (Aug 14): Small GDP Rises Hardly Worth Shouting About?

August 6, 2025 2:48 PM UTC

There are some better signs as far as June GDP is concerned, not least it having been the warmest even such month in England.  But we see only a 0.1% m/m rise (Figure 1), even with slightly better property and retail signals for the month.  However, such an outcome, while a contrast to the two suc

Preview: Due August 19 - U.S. July Housing Starts and Permits - Negative underlying trend

August 6, 2025 12:34 PM UTC

We expect July housing starts to fall by 4.6% to 1260k, reversing a similar rise in June which corrected a 9.7% decline in May. We expect permits to confirm a slipping trend with a fourth straight decline, by 3.1% to 1350k. A soft trend is likely to persist unless Fed easing commences.

Preview: Due August 19 - Canada July CPI - Lower on gasoline but core rates to remain firm

August 5, 2025 5:59 PM UTC

We expect July Canadian CPI to fall to 1.6% yr/yr from 1.9%, taking the pace to the slowest since September 2024, though April’s abolition of the carbon tariff is still depressing yr/yr growth by around 0.6%. July’s dip will be largely on gasoline and we expect little change in the BoC’s core

Preview: Due August 15 - U.S. July Retail Sales - Trend losing momentum

August 5, 2025 3:55 PM UTC

We expect a 0.1% increase in July retail sales to follow two straight declines, with 0.1% decline ex autos and an unchanged outcome ex autos and gasoline. This would restore a slowing trend after June saw a correction from declines in April and May.

Preview: Due August 5 - U.S. June Trade Balance - Deficit to fall on lower imports

August 4, 2025 1:00 PM UTC

We expect a June trade deficit of $61.3bn, down from $71.5bn in May though similar to April’s, and confirming significantly lower deficits in Q2 after the pre-tariff inflated deficits seen in Q1.

Preview: Due August 12 - U.S. July CPI - Tariff impact slowly building

August 4, 2025 12:47 PM UTC

We expect July CPI to increase by 0.2% overall and by 0.3% ex food and energy, with the overall pace close to 0.2% even before rounding but the core rate rounded up from 0.26%. This would still be the strongest core rate since January and reflect a further feed through of tariffs, something that is

RBI to Hold in August as Policy Cycle Enters Pause Phase

August 4, 2025 4:00 AM UTC

The upcoming RBI August meeting is not about action, but observation. With macro indicators largely aligned and risks tilting toward caution, a rate hold by the RBI is expected. Inflation remains subdued, but growth is resilient—requiring no immediate policy move

Preview: Due August 1 - U.S. July ISM Manufacturing - Tariff risks to restrain composite and lift prices

July 31, 2025 1:57 PM UTC

We expect an unchanged ISM manufacturing index of 49.0 in July. Tariff concerns may prevent any extension of a modest June improvement, and could extend recent strength in prices paid, we expect to 71.0 from 69.7. Strength in June’s S and P manufacturing PMI, with July data due on July 24, will be

Preview: Due August 1 - U.S. July Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Slower overall, but stronger in the private sector

July 31, 2025 1:26 PM UTC

We expect a 125k increase in July’s non-farm payroll, slightly slower than in each month of Q2 but slightly stronger than in each month of Q1. We expect a 110k rise in private sector payrolls, up from 74k in June but slower than in April and May. An unchanged unemployment rate of 4.1% and a 0.3% r

Turkiye Inflation will Slightly Soften in July: Tax Adjustments and Gas Price Hike in July Will Limit the Fall

July 30, 2025 8:35 AM UTC

Bottom line: After easing to 35.1% annually in June, we expect Turkiye’s consumer price index (CPI) will continue to soften moderately in July to 34.1%-34.3% as tax adjustments and energy price hikes in July will limit the downward trend. Despite tight monetary policy and moderately falling dema

Preview: Due July 30 - U.S. July ADP Employment - A correction from June's decline

July 29, 2025 4:27 PM UTC

We expect a rise of 70k in July’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth. This would be a significant correction from a 33k decline in June which was the first decline since March 2023, though still leaving a significant slowing in trend. June’s decline followed subdued gains of 29k i

Preview: Due July 29 - U.S. June Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to rise as imports from China recover

July 28, 2025 4:12 PM UTC

We expect an advance June goods trade deficit of $101.6bn, up from $96.4bn in May, This would be a second straight increase from April’s $85.9bn low which corrected a surge in the deficit in Q1 ahead of April’s tariff announcement. June’s deficit would be in line with where trend was before th

Preview: Due July 25 - U.S. June Durable Goods Orders - Correcting a strong May, not only in aircraft

July 24, 2025 4:16 PM UTC

We expect June durable goods orders to fall by 10.5% after a 16.4% surge in May, with the fall, like May’s rise, largely on aircraft. Ex transport orders have been showing much less volatility, but we expect a 0.2% decline in June to correct an above trend 0.5% increase in May.

Preview: Due July 24 - U.S. June New Home Sales - In the lower end of the recent range

July 23, 2025 4:21 PM UTC

We expect a June new home sales level of 640k, which would be a 2.7% increase if May’s 13.7% decline to 623k, which followed a 9.6% increase to 722k in April, is unrevised. Trend in new home sales has no clear direction but the NAHB homebuilders’ survey suggested a weakening picture in June, whi

EZ HICP Preview (Aug 1): Headline at Target as Services Inflation at Fresh Cycle-low?

July 23, 2025 10:35 AM UTC

HICP, inflation – now at target – is very much a side issue for the ECB at present, albeit with the likes of oil prices and tariff retaliation possibly accentuating Council divides.  Despite adverse energy base effects, we see the flash July HICP staying at June’s 2.0% but up from May’s eig

Preview: Due July 23 - U.S. June Existing Home Sales - Remaining subdued

July 22, 2025 3:24 PM UTC

We expect June existing home sales to slip by 0.5% to 4.01m, a third straight month of little change after a 0.8% rise in May and a 0.5% fall in April. The level will remain subdued but yr/yr growth will edge above zero to 2.0% for the first time since January as a June 2024 decline drops out.

Eurozone Flash GDP Preview (Jul 30): A Pause that Does Not Refresh?

July 22, 2025 9:13 AM UTC

For an economy that has seen repeated upside surprises and above trend growth of 1.5% in the year to Q1, GDP data do not seem to have had much impact is shaping, let alone dominating, ECB policy thinking. We think this will continue to be the case even where the looming Q2 data may show a modest con

German Data Preview (Jul 30): Services Inflation to Slow Further?

July 21, 2025 12:49 PM UTC

Germany’s disinflation process continues, with the lower-than-expected June preliminary numbers refreshing and reinforcing this pattern, with a 0.1 ppt drop to 2.0%, a 10-mth low (Figure 1)!  But we see no further drop in the July preliminary numbers largely due to adverse energy base effects - 

Preview: Due July 30 - U.S. Q2 GDP - Rebounding from a negative Q1, but a subdued first half of the year

July 17, 2025 5:54 PM UTC

We expect a 2.4% annualized increase in Q2 GDP, which after a 0.5% decline in Q1 would leave the first half of the year rising at a pace close to 1.0%. A similar pace may be seen in the second half of the year if tariffs persist. Our Q2 forecast has been lifted from 1.4% on a generally improved tone

Preview: Due July 31 - U.S. June Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outpace Core CPI

July 17, 2025 2:48 PM UTC

June’s personal income and spending report will be largely old news at the time of the release, with Q2 totals due in the GDP report due the day before. Ahead of the GDP report we expect a stronger 0.3% increase in core PCE prices, with a weak 0.2% rise in personal income but a solid 0.5% rise in

Preview: Due July 17 - U.S. June Retail Sales - Mostly subdued

July 16, 2025 12:08 PM UTC

We expect a 0.1% increase in June retail sales to follow two straight declines, with a 0.3% incase ex autos that will reverse a 0.3% May decline. Ex autos and gasoline, we also expect a 0.3% increase, after a 0.1% May decline that followed a 0.1% April increase. 

FOMC Preview for July 30: No change given uncertainty on tariffs and their consequences

July 15, 2025 6:15 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on July 30 and recent data suggests no reason to move rates from the current 4.25-4.50% level, though Q2 GDP data due on the morning on the decision will impact the wording of the statement. This meeting will not see an update to the dots leaving focus on Chairman Powell’s press con

Bank of Canada Preview for July 30: Hold after firm data with uncertainty high

July 15, 2025 3:30 PM UTC

The Bank of Canada meets on July 30 and what had been seen as a close call between a 25bps easing and unchanged now looks likely to leave rates unchanged at 2.75%. Continued above target core CPI data and a strong employment report for June argue against easing, though uncertainty remains high with

Preview: Due July 16 - U.S. June PPI - Stronger if still mostly subdued

July 15, 2025 1:34 PM UTC

We expect June PPI to rise by 0.3% overall, which would be the strongest increase since January, with gains of 0.2% in each of the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. The core rates would be the strongest since March, though still quite subdued.

Turkiye MPC Preview: CBRT will Likely Restart its Easing Cycle on July 24

July 15, 2025 12:09 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) held its key policy rate stable at 46% on June 19, we believe CBRT will likely reduce the policy rate by 150-250 bps during the MPC meeting scheduled for July 24 considering the deceleration trend in inflation in June beat forecasts and reinforced ex

Preview: Due July 15 - Canada June CPI - Subdued on the month but little progress yr/yr

July 14, 2025 2:35 PM UTC

We expect June Canadian CPI to rise to 1.9% yr/yr after two straight months at 1.7%, the fall to 1.7% from 2.3% in March having been fully due to the abolition of the consumer carbon tax. We expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be on balance stable in June, and still above the 2.0% target. 

Preview: Due July 15 - U.S. June CPI - A little more from tariffs

July 14, 2025 2:15 PM UTC

We expect June CPI to increase by 0.3% overall and by 0.3% ex food and energy, with the overall pace close to 0.3% before rounding but the core rate rounded up from 0.27%. This would still be the strongest core rate since January and reflect tariffs starting to feed through, something expected by Fe

Preview: Due July 31 - Canada May GDP - Another decline, but June may see a bounce

July 11, 2025 5:03 PM UTC

We expect Canadian GDP to see a second straight 0.1% decline in May, consistent with the preliminary estimate made with April’s report. However strong June employment growth hints that June’s preliminary estimate could be positive, we expect by 0.1%. This would leave Q2 GDP flat to marginally ne