Preview: Due July 31 - U.S. Q2 Employment Cost Index - Returning to pre-pandemic pace

July 9, 2025 2:43 PM UTC

We look for the Q2 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.7%, after two straight gains of 0.9% and the slowest since Q2 2021. A 0.7% rise would be consistent with trend returning to where it was before the pandemic. 

UK CPI Preview (Jul 16): Services Inflation to Fall Further?

July 9, 2025 2:05 PM UTC

Calendar effects have been accentuating swings in UK CPI data of late. Indeed, the timing of Easter may have been a partial factor in the May CPI, where a distinct drop back in services and core rates failed to make the headline drop, which instead stayed at 3.4% in line with BoE thinking due to hig

Preview: Due July 25 - U.S. June Durable Goods Orders - Correcting a strong May, not only in aircraft

July 9, 2025 1:16 PM UTC

We expect June durable goods orders to fall by 10.5% after a 16.4% surge in May, with the fall, like May’s rise, largely on aircraft. Ex transport orders have been showing much less volatility, but we expect a 0.2% decline in June to correct an above trend 0.5% increase in May.

Preview: Due July 24 - U.S. June New Home Sales - In the lower end of the recent range

July 7, 2025 1:06 PM UTC

We expect a June new home sales level of 640k, which would be a 2.7% increase if May’s 13.7% decline to 623k, which followed a 9.6% increase to 722k in April, is unrevised. Trend in new home sales has no clear direction but the NAHB homebuilders’ survey suggested a weakening picture in June.

Preview: Due July 18 - U.S. June Housing Starts and Permits - Starts to correct higher, permits to continue falling

July 3, 2025 6:07 PM UTC

We expect June housing starts to rise by 3.5% to 1300k in a correction from a 9.8% May decline, but we expect permits to fall by 1.0% to 1380k, in what would be a third straight fall.

UK GDP Preview (Jul 11): Another Large Downside Surprise?

July 3, 2025 9:12 AM UTC

After two successive upside surprises, a correction back in monthly GDP was not entirely a wholesale surprise for April GDP.  But we see that 0.3% m/m drop being repeated in the looming May numbers (Figure 1), thereby adding to a gloomier economic backdrop most recently highlighted by growing signs

Preview: Due July 23 - U.S. June Existing Home Sales - Remaining subdued

July 2, 2025 6:41 PM UTC

We expect June existing home sales to slip by 0.5% to 4.01m, a third straight month of little change after a 0.8% rise in May and a 0.5% fall in April. The level will remain subdued but yr/yr growth will edge above zero to 2.0% for the first time since January as a June 2024 decline drops out.

Preview: Due July 17 - U.S. June Retail Sales - Mostly subdued

July 2, 2025 3:20 PM UTC

We expect a 0.1% increase in June retail sales to follow two straight declines, with a 0.3% incase ex autos that will reverse a 0.3% May decline. Ex autos and gasoline, we also expect a 0.3% increase, after a 0.1% May decline that followed a 0.1% April increase. 

Preview: Due July 3 - U.S. May Trade Balance - Bank to near pre-election levels

July 2, 2025 1:13 PM UTC

We expect May trade deficit to increase to $71.7bn from $61.6bn in April, which was the lowest deficit since September 2023, following a record $138.3bn in March. May’s deficit will be only a little below the pre-election trend and Q2’s deficit looks set to be less sharply below the pre-election

Preview: Due July 3 - U.S. June Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Increasing signs of slowing, but not a recession

July 2, 2025 1:01 PM UTC

We expect a 75k increase in June’s non-farm payroll, significantly slower than May’s 139k though consistent with a slowdown in growth rather than an economy entering recession. We expect an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings and an uptick in unemployment to 4.3% after th

Preview: Due July 15 - U.S. June CPI - A little more from tariffs

July 1, 2025 6:42 PM UTC

We expect June CPI to increase by 0.3% overall and by 0.3% ex food and energy, with the overall pace close to 0.3% before rounding but the core rate rounded up from 0.27%. This would still be the strongest core rate since January and reflect tariffs starting to feed through, something expected by Fe

Preview: Due July 1 - U.S. June ISM Manufacturing - Modest improvement from a 6-month low

June 30, 2025 2:48 PM UTC

We expect a June ISM manufacturing index of 49.0, which would be a marginal improvement from May’s 48.5, which was the weakest since November 2024. However the index would remain below the neutral 50 which was beaten in January and February for the first times since October 2022. 

U.S. Q2 GDP to see only a modest rebound from a decline in Q1

June 27, 2025 6:05 PM UTC

The release of advance May trade and inventory data, plus May consumer spending, provides us with clearer signals on Q2 GDP, even if we have not yet seen any data for June. We currently expect a modest annualized gain of 1.4%, following a 0.5% decline in Q1, leaving a subdued first half of the year.

Preview: Due June 27 - Canada April GDP - Tariffs starting to bite

June 26, 2025 11:44 AM UTC

We expect Canadian GDP to be unchanged in April, slightly below a preliminary estimate for a 0.1% increase made with March’s report. Tariffs are likely to be a restraint on the economy through Q2 and beyond.

Preview: Due July 1 - U.S. June ISM Manufacturing - Modest improvement from a 6-month low

June 25, 2025 12:40 PM UTC

We expect a June ISM manufacturing index of 49.0, which would be a marginal improvement from May’s 48.5, which was the weakest since November 2024. However the index would remain below the neutral 50 which was beaten in January and February for the first times since October 2022. 

Preview: Due June 25 - U.S. May New Home Sales - April strength unlikely to be sustained

June 24, 2025 3:41 PM UTC

We expect a May new home sales level of 650k, which would be a 12.5% decline if April’s surprisingly strong 10.9% increase to 743k is unrevised. April’s level was the highest since February 2021, but only marginally above the highs of 2023 and 2024, and a downward revision is possible. 

EZ HICP Preview (Jul 1): Headline Stays Below Target as Services Inflation Rises Back?

June 24, 2025 8:57 AM UTC

Inflation – now below target – is very much a side issue for the ECB at present, albeit with oil prices possibly accentuating Council divides.  Indeed, we see the flash June HICP staying at May’s below-consensus, eight-month low and below-target 1.9% (Figure 1).  More notably, having jumped

German Data Preview (Jun 30): Calm Before the Storm?

June 23, 2025 10:29 AM UTC

Germany’s disinflation process continues, but there have been signs that the downtrend was flattening out and this impression may have been accentuated by the small and lower than expected (ie 0.1 ppt) drop in the headline in May to 2.1%, still an eight-month low (Figure 1).  Adjusted data also s

Preview: Due July 2 - U.S. June ADP Employment - A third straight sub-100k gain

June 20, 2025 5:38 PM UTC

We expect a rise of 50k in June’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth. This would be stronger than May’s 37k but a third straight gain of significantly below 100k. ADP underperformed the non-farm payroll significantly in April and May. We expect a more modest underperformance in Ju

Preview: Due July 3 - U.S. June Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Increasing signs of slowing, but not a recession

June 20, 2025 4:29 PM UTC

We expect a 75k increase in June’s non-farm payroll, significantly slower than May’s 139k though consistent with a slowdown in growth rather than an economy entering recession. We expect an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings and an uptick in unemployment to 4.3% after th

Preview: Due June 27 - U.S. May Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to match Core CPI

June 17, 2025 3:02 PM UTC

We expect a 0.1% rise in May’s core PCE price index, matching to core CPI, continuing to show limited tariff pass-through. Subdued data are also likely from personal income, which we expect to be unchanged, and personal spending, where we expect a 0.1% decline.

Preview: Due June 18 - U.S. May Housing Starts and Permits - Multiples to lead modest declines

June 17, 2025 2:39 PM UTC

We expect May housing starts to see a modest fall of 0.8% to 1350k to follow a 1.6% April increase, while permits fall by 1.5% to 1400k after a drop of 4.0% in April. Trend now looks marginally negative though the May declines are likely to be led by the volatile multiples sector.

Preview: Due June 17 - U.S. May Retail Sales - Autos to correct lower, underlying momentum subdued

June 16, 2025 12:07 PM UTC

We expect a 0.7% decline in May retail sales as auto sales show a sharp reversal from recent strength. Ex autos we expect a subdued 0.1% increase, with a 0.2% rise ex autos and gasoline. Both of these outcomes would match those of April.

Preview: Due June 27 - Canada April GDP - Tariffs starting to bite

June 13, 2025 1:40 PM UTC

We expect Canadian GDP to be unchanged in April, slightly below a preliminary estimate for a 0.1% increase made with March’s report. Tariffs are likely to be a restraint on the economy through Q2 and beyond.

India CPI Review: CPI at 2.82%: Disinflation Deepens, But Risks Linger

June 13, 2025 7:18 AM UTC

India’s retail inflation dropped to a six-year low of 2.82% in May, driven by easing food prices and supported by favourable base effects. While disinflation continues to create monetary space, RBI's next rate cut will be data driven. 

Preview: Due June 24 - U.S. Q1 Current Account - Deficit to surge but to reverse in Q2

June 12, 2025 5:06 PM UTC

We expect a record Q1 US current account deficit of $430bn, up from $303.9bn in Q4, which will probably be revised a little lower. The rise in the deficit will be largely on a pre-tariff surge in goods imports and is likely to be reversed in Q2. As a proportion of GDP the deficit would be 5.7%, up f

FOMC Preview for June 18: No change in rates or dots, only marginal changes to statement and forecasts

June 11, 2025 4:01 PM UTC

The June 18 FOMC meeting looks highly likely to leave rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5%. We expect only marginal changes to May’s statement and the Fed’s median forecasts from March, with no change at all in the median dots on rates.  Chairman Powell at the press conference may welcome recent signal

Preview: Due June 12 - U.S. May PPI - A correction from a weak April, which may be revised

June 11, 2025 1:07 PM UTC

We expect May PPI to see a modest bounce from a weak April with a 0.2% rise overall and a 0.3% increase ex food and energy. Ex food, energy and trade, we expect a rise of 0.2%. April fell by 0.5% overall and ex food and energy, but by only 0.1% ex food, energy and trade.  A weak March was revised u