UK CPI Preview (May 21): How Big and Durable a Surge?

May 12, 2025 2:32 PM UTC

The UK and the rest of the DM world are about to decouple, at least in terms of inflation, where the UK faces a surge, (largely home-grown) just as W European sees their respective inflation fall back to, if not below, targets.  Although relegated by current market ructions and tariff threats, the

Preview: Due May 22 - U.S. May S&P PMIs - Manufacturing to slip below neutral, Services to hold above

May 12, 2025 12:51 PM UTC

We expect May’s S and P PMIs to show slippage in manufacturing, to 49.5 from 50.2, but a correction higher on services, to 51.5 from 50.8. Underlying momentum in both series appears to be slowing, though this may fade if trade uncertainty is reduced.

Preview: Due May 13 - U.S. April CPI - Upside risk after a below trend March

May 12, 2025 12:02 PM UTC

We expect April CPI to increase by 0.3% overall and by 0.4% ex food and energy, the core rate reflecting a rebound from a below trend March as well as some impact from tariffs, though the extent of the tariff impact is highly uncertain. We see the core rate at 0.38% before rounding.

Preview: Due May 20 - Canada April CPI - To fall, but only on removal of carbon tax

May 9, 2025 2:09 PM UTC

We expect April Canadian CPI to fall to 1.6% yr/yr from 2.3% with the fall entirely due to the April 1 removal of a carbon tax which the Bank of Canada estimates will reduce inflation by 0.7%, largely in gasoline. We expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be unchanged from March.

A Windfall with Caveats: RBI’s Likely Record Dividend

May 9, 2025 2:00 PM UTC

India is set to receive a record INR 3–3.5tn dividend from the RBI, offering a fiscal cushion amid softening tax revenues and rising geopolitical tensions with Pakistan. While this windfall may help the government stick to its 4.4% fiscal deficit target for FY26, it also highlights India’s growi

India CPI Preview: Cooling Prices, Warming Room for Rate Cuts

May 9, 2025 9:48 AM UTC

India’s retail inflation likely fell to 3.2% in April, its lowest since 2019, driven by a sharp decline in food prices. The benign inflation print strengthens the case for another RBI rate cut as growth momentum softens. 

UK GDP Preview (May 15): Q1 GDP Jumps But Underlying Picture Nearer Zero

May 9, 2025 9:32 AM UTC

We see the surprise and sizeable February GDP jump consolidating in the March GDP release with a flat m/m reading, this coming after that 0.5% jump (Figure 1).  But there are downside risks given the possible (marked) correction back that may occur after what seems to be a very erratic February jum

Preview: Due May 15 - U.S. April PPI - A stronger month after a weak March

May 6, 2025 5:05 PM UTC

We expect April PPI to bounce from a weak March with a 0.3% rise overall and a 0.4% increase ex food and energy. Ex food, energy and trade, we expect a rise of 0.3%. Tariffs are likely to continue supporting goods prices while services are likely to correct from a weak March.

Preview: Due May 13 - U.S. April CPI - Upside risk after a below trend March

May 6, 2025 3:49 PM UTC

We expect April CPI to increase by 0.3% overall and by 0.4% ex food and energy, the core rate reflecting a rebound from a below trend March as well as some impact from tariffs, though the extent of the tariff impact is highly uncertain. We see the core rate at 0.38% before rounding.

Preview: Due May 6 - U.S. March Trade Balance - Record deficit on pre-tariff import surge

May 5, 2025 12:00 PM UTC

We expect a record March deficit of $140.4bn, up from $122.7bn in February and the previous record of $130.7bn set in January. We expect a marginal 0.1% decline in exports but a surge of 4.4% in imports ahead of the April 2 tariff announcement. 

Preview: Due May 15 - U.S. April Retail Sales - Autos to correct lower, but underlying momentum to persist

May 2, 2025 6:22 PM UTC

After a strong 1.5% increase in March, we expect retail sales to rise by only 0.1% in April, though gains of 0.4% ex autos and 0.5% ex autos and gasoline should show that the consumer still has some underlying momentum, despite plunging consumer confidence.

Preview: Due May 16 - U.S. April Housing Starts and Permits - Trend has little direction

May 2, 2025 5:00 PM UTC

We expect April housing starts to rise by 5.7% to 1400k after a fall of 11.4% in March, while permits fall by 0.5% to 1460k after a 0.5% increase in March. While starts have been more volatile than permits in recent months, trend continues to have little direction. 

FOMC Preview for May 7: No change with future policy left data-dependent

May 2, 2025 3:47 PM UTC

In the current exceptionally uncertain environment, the FOMC looks set to keep rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5% at its May 7 meeting, and give little away on future policy. This meeting will not see the dots updated. Chairman Powell however at the press conference is likely to signal that future meeting

Preview: Due May 5 - U.S. April ISM Services - A correction higher within a weakening picture

May 2, 2025 2:44 PM UTC

We expect April’s ISM services index to correct higher to 51.5 after March saw a fall to a 9-month low of 50.8 from 53.5 in February. 

Preview: Due May 2 - U.S. April Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Few clear signals for labor market weakness

May 1, 2025 12:57 PM UTC

We expect a 145k increase in April’s non-farm payroll, with 135k in the private sector, the latter equal to the Q1 average. Initial claims were showing no signs of labor market weakness in the payroll survey week, with a bounce in the latest week not yet a clear change in trend. We expect unemploy

Turkiye Inflation Preview: CPI is Expected to Slightly Increase in April

April 30, 2025 4:47 PM UTC

Bottom line: After easing to 38.1% annually in March, we expect consumer price index (CPI) will slightly surge to 38.2%-38.3% YoY in April. Despite tight monetary policy and moderately falling demand helped relieving the price pressure in Q1, April inflation will likely stand at higher-than-expect

Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. Q1 GDP - A modest decline, but less steep than trade data implies

April 29, 2025 1:24 PM UTC

Q1 US GDP is subject to exceptional uncertainty with calculations based on the components suggesting a significant decline, largely due to a surge in imports. However with non-farm payrolls showing a 0.5% rise in aggregate hours worked a steep fall looks unlikely. We predict a modest GDP decline of

Preview: Due April 29 - U.S. March Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to correct further, but remain very high

April 28, 2025 12:11 PM UTC

We expect an advance March goods trade deficit of $139.5bn, down from $147.8bn in February and a record $154.6bn in January, but still above December’s $122.1bn, which itself was a record high before the Q1 data was seen.  Importers were still trying to beat the tariffs imposed in April.  

EZ HICP Preview (May 2): Headline Lower Again But Mainly Energy?

April 24, 2025 8:39 AM UTC

EZ HICP inflation is likely to fall back to the 2% target in flash April data, this six-month low would largely reflect a fall in fuel prices, but with services largely consolidating the clear fall seen last time around (Figure 1).  All of which would mean a stable core reading of 2.4% but where th

Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. April ADP Employment - Slightly slower than March, and probably April's payroll

April 23, 2025 4:44 PM UTC

We expect a 125k increase in April’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth. This would be slower than March’s 155k and slightly below the 135k increase we expect from April’s non-farm payroll. However there is little evidence yet of labor market weakness despite the elevated uncert

Preview: Due May 2 - U.S. April Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Few signals for labor market weakness

April 23, 2025 3:31 PM UTC

We expect a 145k increase in April’s non-farm payroll, with 135k in the private sector, the latter equal to the Q1 average, with initial claims showing no signs of labor market weakness. We expect unemployment to correct lower to 4.1% after a March rise to 4.2%, and an in line with trend 0.3% incr

Eurozone Flash GDP Preview (Apr 30): The Calm Before the Storm that Surveys May Be Flagging?

April 23, 2025 9:18 AM UTC

Continuing a series of upside surprises, EZ GDP overshot both consensus and ECB expectations in Q4), albeit only after what was a cumulative 0.2 ppt upward revisions compared to the flash. We see a further rise in Q1 data (Figure 1), partly reflecting recent m/m increases in both manufacturing and s

Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. Q1 GDP - A modest decline, but less steep than trade data implies

April 22, 2025 4:32 PM UTC

Q1 US GDP is subject to exceptional uncertainty with calculations based on the components suggesting a significant decline. The Atlanta Fed nowcast shows an annualized fall of 2.2% largely due to a surge in imports. However with non-farm payrolls showing a 0.5% rise in aggregate hours worked such a

German Data Preview (Apr 30): Lower Headline Amid Stable Services Inflation?

April 22, 2025 1:16 PM UTC

Germany’s disinflation process continues, but there had been signs that the downtrend was flattening out but this changed somewhat in February and again in the March. Indeed, HICP inflation fell back from 2.6% to 2.3% in March, this despite a pick-up in food inflation in both months.  Notably the

Preview: Due April 29 - U.S. March Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to correct further, but remain very high

April 21, 2025 1:20 PM UTC

We expect an advance March goods trade deficit of $139.5bn, down from $147.8bn in February and a record $154.6bn in January, but still above December’s $122.1bn, which itself was a record high before the Q1 data was seen.  Importers were still trying to beat the tariffs imposed in April.  

Preview: Due April 30 - U.S. March Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to match weak Core CPI

April 17, 2025 3:47 PM UTC

March’s personal income and spending report will be largely old news by the time of the release, with Q1 totals due with the GDP report 90 minutes earlier. We expect a subdued 0.1% increase in the core PCE price index, a subdued 0.2% rise in personal income, but a strong 0.8% increase in personal

Preview: Due April 17 - U.S. March Housing Starts and Permits - Flat trend, weather still supportive

April 16, 2025 4:40 PM UTC

We expect March housing starts to fall by 2.1% to 1470k, though this would leave them closer to February’s 1501k than January’s 1350k. It would also unusually remain above permits, which we expect to almost unchanged, up 0.1% to 1460k. 

Preview: Due April 30 - Canada February GDP - A stall before a fall

April 15, 2025 5:38 PM UTC

We expect Canadian GDP to be unchanged in February, in line with a preliminary estimate made with January’s strong 0.4% increase. As tariffs risk build, we expect the preliminary estimate for March to be modestly negative.

Preview: Due April 16 - U.S. March Retail Sales - Strong end to a subdued quarter

April 15, 2025 2:06 PM UTC

We expect US retail sales to rise by 1.3%, led by autos, in what will be a strong end to a subdued quarter. Ex autos we expect a moderate rise of 0.5% but ex autos and gasoline the rise we expect sales to rise by 0.8%.

Preview: Due April 15 - Canada March CPI - Another acceleration as sales tax holiday ends

April 14, 2025 1:07 PM UTC

We expect March Canadian CPI to increase to increase to a 9-month high of 2.7% yr/yr from 2.6% in February. We also expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to move higher, moving further above the 2.0% target.

Mexico CPI Review: Moving as Expected

April 10, 2025 2:20 PM UTC

Mexico’s March CPI rose 0.31%, matching expectations but below the historical average. Annual inflation edged up to 3.80%, driven by core components like food and services. Non-core inflation fell due to lower energy prices. Food saw strong gains, while transport costs declined. The narrowing gap