Preview: Due October 7 - U.S. August Trade Balance - Deficit to reverse most of a July increase
We expect an August trade deficit of $60.2bn, down from $78.3bn in July but slightly wider than June’s $59.1bn deficit that was the narrowest since March 2023. The deficit remains in a correction from elevated pre-tariff levels that brought a record high of $136.4bn in March.
Advance goods data showed a 1.3% decline in exports after a flat July and a 7.0% decline in imports to reverse a 7.0% increase in July. Industrial supplies led the decline in imports after leading July’s increase. We expect similar outcomes in this report, leaving a goods deficit of $86.4bn, down from $103.9bn in July.
We expect the services surplus to rise to $26.2bn after falling to $25.6bn in July from $26.6bn in June. We expect service exports to rise by 0.3% after a 0.6% increase in July but service imports to correct lower by 0.5% after a 2.3% increase in July. This will leave overall exports down by 0.7% and overall imports down by 5.6%.
