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June 11, 2024

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DM Fiscal Consolidation Problems: Politics/Central bank QT and Low Nominal GDP
Paying Article

June 11, 2024 2:10 PM UTC

 Some governments are politically reluctant to restrain government expenditure growth or in the U.S. case raise taxes.  This means that intermittent fiscal stress and concerns can be seen in the coming years.  However, to get to crisis levels would require a government that abandons any attempts

June 05, 2024

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France Downgrade: Warning for the U.S./UK?
Paying Article

June 5, 2024 9:30 AM UTC

 French politics makes it difficult for President Macron to improve the underlying budget deficit and government debt after the S&P downgrade to AA-.  The National Rally could also do well in this week’s European parliamentary elections and put further pressure on Macron.  Meanwhile, though rat

May 31, 2024

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H1 2025 Fiscal Stress or Crisis?
Paying Article

May 31, 2024 2:30 PM UTC

We see the U.S. facing fiscal stress in H1 2025.  Either a re-elected President Biden would be restrained by Republicans over raising the debt ceiling or a president Trump would want to make the lapsing parts of the 2017 tax cuts permanent.  Rating agencies would be unhappy with either scenario an

May 29, 2024

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U.S. Financial Stress: Select Issues Not Widespread
Paying Article

May 29, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

Higher U.S. interest rates are still feeding through with a lag, which can cause weaker corporates and households problems but point to divergence within consumption and investment rather than anything more serious. High leverage for hedge funds/issues for a small subset of banks and high holdings o

May 27, 2024

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Fed Easing Expectations: Volatile and Data Driven
Paying Article

May 27, 2024 12:05 PM UTC

 Bottom Line: Fed easing expectations have been reset to higher for longer.  However, softer real sector data, plus less worrying inflation monthly outcomes, can rebuild easing expectations.  We see the first 25bps coming at the September 19 FOMC meeting and around this time a noticeable increase

May 07, 2024

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U.S. Fiscal Problems: 2025 More Than 2024
Paying Article

May 7, 2024 1:10 PM UTC

Current real yields in the U.S. government bond market already large reflect the large government deficit trajectory.  Even so, H1 2025 could see some extra fiscal tensions that add 30-40bps to 10yr U.S. Treasury yields as the post president election environment will either see a reelected Joe Bide

April 26, 2024

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Headwinds To Long-term Global Growth
Paying Article

April 26, 2024 9:30 AM UTC

Bottom line: While much focus is on the cyclical economic position to determine 2024 monetary policy prospects, the 2025-28 structural growth trajectory differs to the pre 2020 GDP trajectory for major economies.  While global fragmentation has a role to play, aging populations are already having a

April 22, 2024

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Short-end European Government Bonds Following U.S. But June Decoupling
Paying Article

April 22, 2024 1:15 PM UTC

The Fed’s shift to higher for longer has spilled over to drag European government bond yields higher through April.  This now looks overdone as a June ECB rate cut is not fully discounted and ECB officials/data clearly point towards a 25bps cut.  UK money markets are more out of line, with a Jun

April 17, 2024

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Markets: Fed Rather Than Middle East Worries
Paying Article

April 17, 2024 12:34 PM UTC

Global markets are being driven by a scale back in Fed easing expectations and we see a 5-10% U.S. equity market correction being underway.  However, with the market now only discounting one 25bps Fed cut in 2024, any downside surprises on U.S. growth or better controlled monthly inflation numbers

April 03, 2024

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March Outlook: Europe in Focus, Then Elections Around the World
Paying Article

April 3, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

April 02, 2024

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Asset Allocation: Pausing for Breath
Paying Article

April 2, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

Into Q2, data and policy (actual and perceived) will dominate DM markets. The ECB will likely take the spotlight with a 25bps cut on June 7, as the Fed face a better growth/more fiscal policy expansion and a tighter labor market than the EZ but also with a better productivity backdrop and outlook to

March 27, 2024

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March Outlook: Europe in Focus, Then Elections Around the World
Paying Article

March 27, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

March 25, 2024

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Outlook Overview: Europe in Focus, Then Elections Around the World
Paying Article

March 25, 2024 11:15 AM UTC

March 21, 2024

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Commodities Outlook: A Promising Horizon
Paying Article

March 21, 2024 11:00 AM UTC

January 11, 2024

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Webinar Recording December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
Paying Article

January 11, 2024 8:22 AM UTC

You can now access the webinar for the December Outlook here. 
To read the individual chapters please see the weblink below.  
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
China Outloo

January 08, 2024

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Charting our Views December Outlook
Freemium Article

January 8, 2024 9:05 AM UTC

Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
Economic Scenarios 
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
Brazil Policy Rate and CPI Inflation (YoY, %)
China Outlook: Headwinds To China Growth (here)
Japan Outlook: Normalizing

January 02, 2024

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December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
Paying Article

January 2, 2024 9:53 AM UTC

Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
China Outlook: Headwinds To China Growth (here)
Japan Outlook: Normalizing Monetary Policy Soon (here)
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook:

December 19, 2023

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December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
Paying Article

December 19, 2023 3:15 PM UTC

Japan Outlook: Normalizing Monetary Policy Soon (here)
DM FX Outlook: The Year of the Yen (here)
EM FX Outlook: USD Decline v Inflation Differentials (here)
Technical Analysis Quarterly Chartbook (here)

December 18, 2023

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Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024
Paying Article

December 18, 2023 3:42 PM UTC

·     Uncertainty still prevails around this central view.  The impact of lagged monetary tightening could be greater than our estimates and deliver mild recessions in some DM countries.  We also feel that the disinflationary process could be stronger and this would help bring inflation back

December 15, 2023

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Commodities Outlook: Economic Forces at Play
Paying Article

December 15, 2023 11:21 AM UTC

•    Oil: Production Cuts and Demand DynamicsThe trajectory of oil prices will be significantly shaped by both the production policies to be adopted by OPEC and the global economic growth. In light of the voluntary cuts agreed upon by several countries within the cartel during the November 202