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July 09, 2024
Israel and Hezbollah: Tensions or War?
July 9, 2024 2:28 PM UTC
Tensions are growing between Israel and Hezbollah, though the odds of a war in the next 6 months remain modest. Military strategists note that such a war would require a large scale ground offensive and this is difficult given the war in Gaza.
June 26, 2024
June 25, 2024
Outlook Overview: Cyclical and Structural Forces
June 25, 2024 10:15 AM UTC
• The global economy is showing signs of healing, as inflation comes back towards targets and growth recovers momentum in some economies. Nevertheless, the cyclical headwind of lagged monetary tightening remains in DM countries, and will likely be one of the forces slowing the U.S. economy
June 20, 2024
Commodities Outlook: Fundamentals Kick In
June 20, 2024 10:00 AM UTC
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is projected to end 2024 at USD82. We anticipate that the voluntary cuts introduced in November 2023 will likely be reversed during H1 2025 and not in Q4 2024, as initially communicated by OPEC+. The scenario is built on our expectation that demand will not increase suf
June 18, 2024
France Debt: Dependent on Non-Residents
June 18, 2024 9:20 AM UTC
Any further major fiscal slippage under a new government could prompt more of a reduction in French government bond exposure, which would likely mean a multi month/quarter risk premia for France and cause spillover difficulties for Italy. It is worth remembering that France is dependent on non-resid
June 11, 2024
DM Fiscal Consolidation Problems: Politics/Central bank QT and Low Nominal GDP
June 11, 2024 2:10 PM UTC
Some governments are politically reluctant to restrain government expenditure growth or in the U.S. case raise taxes. This means that intermittent fiscal stress and concerns can be seen in the coming years. However, to get to crisis levels would require a government that abandons any attempts
June 05, 2024
France Downgrade: Warning for the U.S./UK?
June 5, 2024 9:30 AM UTC
French politics makes it difficult for President Macron to improve the underlying budget deficit and government debt after the S&P downgrade to AA-. The National Rally could also do well in this week’s European parliamentary elections and put further pressure on Macron. Meanwhile, though rat
May 31, 2024
H1 2025 Fiscal Stress or Crisis?
May 31, 2024 2:30 PM UTC
We see the U.S. facing fiscal stress in H1 2025. Either a re-elected President Biden would be restrained by Republicans over raising the debt ceiling or a president Trump would want to make the lapsing parts of the 2017 tax cuts permanent. Rating agencies would be unhappy with either scenario an
May 29, 2024
U.S. Financial Stress: Select Issues Not Widespread
May 29, 2024 10:00 AM UTC
Higher U.S. interest rates are still feeding through with a lag, which can cause weaker corporates and households problems but point to divergence within consumption and investment rather than anything more serious. High leverage for hedge funds/issues for a small subset of banks and high holdings o
May 27, 2024
Fed Easing Expectations: Volatile and Data Driven
May 27, 2024 12:05 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Fed easing expectations have been reset to higher for longer. However, softer real sector data, plus less worrying inflation monthly outcomes, can rebuild easing expectations. We see the first 25bps coming at the September 19 FOMC meeting and around this time a noticeable increase
May 07, 2024
U.S. Fiscal Problems: 2025 More Than 2024
May 7, 2024 1:10 PM UTC
Current real yields in the U.S. government bond market already large reflect the large government deficit trajectory. Even so, H1 2025 could see some extra fiscal tensions that add 30-40bps to 10yr U.S. Treasury yields as the post president election environment will either see a reelected Joe Bide
April 26, 2024
Headwinds To Long-term Global Growth
April 26, 2024 9:30 AM UTC
Bottom line: While much focus is on the cyclical economic position to determine 2024 monetary policy prospects, the 2025-28 structural growth trajectory differs to the pre 2020 GDP trajectory for major economies. While global fragmentation has a role to play, aging populations are already having a
April 22, 2024
Short-end European Government Bonds Following U.S. But June Decoupling
April 22, 2024 1:15 PM UTC
The Fed’s shift to higher for longer has spilled over to drag European government bond yields higher through April. This now looks overdone as a June ECB rate cut is not fully discounted and ECB officials/data clearly point towards a 25bps cut. UK money markets are more out of line, with a Jun
April 17, 2024
Markets: Fed Rather Than Middle East Worries
April 17, 2024 12:34 PM UTC
Global markets are being driven by a scale back in Fed easing expectations and we see a 5-10% U.S. equity market correction being underway. However, with the market now only discounting one 25bps Fed cut in 2024, any downside surprises on U.S. growth or better controlled monthly inflation numbers
April 03, 2024
April 02, 2024
Asset Allocation: Pausing for Breath
April 2, 2024 9:00 AM UTC
Into Q2, data and policy (actual and perceived) will dominate DM markets. The ECB will likely take the spotlight with a 25bps cut on June 7, as the Fed face a better growth/more fiscal policy expansion and a tighter labor market than the EZ but also with a better productivity backdrop and outlook to
March 27, 2024
March 25, 2024
January 11, 2024
Webinar Recording December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
January 11, 2024 8:22 AM UTC
You can now access the webinar for the December Outlook here.
To read the individual chapters please see the weblink below.
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
China Outloo
January 08, 2024
Charting our Views December Outlook
January 8, 2024 9:05 AM UTC
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
Economic Scenarios
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
Brazil Policy Rate and CPI Inflation (YoY, %)
China Outlook: Headwinds To China Growth (here)
Japan Outlook: Normalizing
January 02, 2024
December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
January 2, 2024 9:53 AM UTC
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
China Outlook: Headwinds To China Growth (here)
Japan Outlook: Normalizing Monetary Policy Soon (here)
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook:
December 19, 2023
December 18, 2023
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024
December 18, 2023 3:42 PM UTC
· Uncertainty still prevails around this central view. The impact of lagged monetary tightening could be greater than our estimates and deliver mild recessions in some DM countries. We also feel that the disinflationary process could be stronger and this would help bring inflation back
December 15, 2023
Commodities Outlook: Economic Forces at Play
December 15, 2023 11:21 AM UTC
• Oil: Production Cuts and Demand DynamicsThe trajectory of oil prices will be significantly shaped by both the production policies to be adopted by OPEC and the global economic growth. In light of the voluntary cuts agreed upon by several countries within the cartel during the November 202