India’s Fiscal Deficit Swells, Yet 4.4% Target Still Within Reach

November 7, 2025 7:30 PM UTC

India’s fiscal performance in H1 reflects a calculated front-loading of capex to support growth, while record non-tax revenues offer a buffer. Execution risks remain in H2, but the government appears confident in meeting its 4.4% deficit target without derailing market or reform momentum.

Breakthrough in Sight: India and US Move Towards Bilateral Trade Agreement

October 30, 2025 6:05 AM UTC

The India–US trade deal now seems within reach after months of deadlock, with both sides signalling convergence on major issues. For Indian exporters, particularly in textiles, marine products, and engineering goods, the removal of US tariffs would provide a timely boost amid global demand uncerta

Indonesia CPI Preview: CPI to edge up in October

October 29, 2025 1:18 PM UTC

Indonesia’s inflation rate is set to edge up in October, but the uptick should remain well within the central bank’s comfort zone. For now, BI is expected to stay on hold in its next policy meeting, focusing instead on growth stability and external risks.

India’s Core Sector Growth Slows to 3%: Infrastructure Holds Firm, Energy Falters

October 28, 2025 6:14 AM UTC

India’s September core sector data encapsulates a pivotal juncture for the economy — resilient infrastructure activity offset by energy vulnerability. Slowing core output implies lower industrial output growth over Q2-FY26.

Bank Indonesia Holds Rates at 4.75% Amid Global Uncertainty:

October 27, 2025 11:54 AM UTC

BI opted to hold its interest rate steady at 4.75% after trimming it in a surprise in September. BI will now wait to see the transmission of earlier rate cuts before proceeding with further action. We expect a steady policy rate going into 2026. 

India Accelerates Mineral Diplomacy as Beijing Tightens Export Controls

October 17, 2025 7:31 AM UTC

China’s expanded export curbs on rare earths have pushed India to fast-track its critical minerals strategy — combining domestic stockpiles, new mining auctions, and global supply alliances. New Delhi’s plan hinges on building refining capacity and securing long-term deals in Latin America, Af

Oil, Tariffs, and Technology: Inside India–US Trade Negotiations

October 17, 2025 6:27 AM UTC

India and the US are nearing the first phase of a long-awaited Bilateral Trade Agreement, with negotiations in Washington focusing on tariffs, digital standards, and supply-chain resilience.Energy remains the flashpoint, as Washington’s 50% duties tied to India’s Russian oil imports complicate p

Indonesia’s 2026 Budget: Populist Spending Meets Fiscal Strain

October 16, 2025 6:17 AM UTC

Indonesia’s 2026 budget marks President Prabowo Subianto’s first full fiscal blueprint—anchored in expansive social spending and a sharp 30% rise in defence outlays, while sidelining his predecessor’s infrastructure push. With revenue targets based on optimistic assumptions and growth foreca

India CPI Review: CPI at Eight-Year Low: Disinflation Deepens, RBI Seen Easing in December

October 14, 2025 7:21 AM UTC

India’s retail inflation eased to 1.54% in September — the lowest in nearly eight years — driven by steep declines in food and fuel prices. With CPI now well below the RBI’s 2–6% tolerance band and GST cuts reinforcing disinflation, a December rate cut looks increasingly likely. Core infla

RBI Holds Rates, Balances Growth Optimism with Global Risks

October 2, 2025 6:09 AM UTC

The RBI held the repo rate at 5.5% in its October review, keeping policy neutral after 100 bps of cuts earlier this year. Inflation was sharply revised down to 2.6% in FY26, while growth was upgraded to 6.8%, reflecting resilient domestic demand. The decision reflects a strategy of stability—pausi

RBI Likely to Hold Rates, Watchful of Tariffs and Festive Demand

September 29, 2025 6:57 AM UTC

The RBI is expected to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.5% in its October review, pausing after three consecutive cuts earlier this year. With inflation undershooting and GST rationalisation set to push CPI lower, policymakers see little need for immediate action. The central bank will instead wait

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Balancing Moderation with Resilience

September 23, 2025 11:22 AM UTC

·       Asia’s growth trajectory in 2026 reflects regional resilience under strain. Investment-led economies like India and Malaysia are sustaining momentum via infrastructure push, public capex, and digital industrial policy, while Indonesia’s outlook is clouded by fiscal recalibration a

New GST Slabs to Boost Demand as India Faces 50% US Tariffs

September 8, 2025 6:45 AM UTC

India’s landmark GST 2.0 reform, effective 22 September 2025, simplifies slabs to 5% and 18%, with a 40% rate for sin goods. By easing prices on essentials and mid-market products, the move aims to boost demand and partially offset the drag from US tariffs of 50% on Indian exports. While household

Modi in China: Eurasian Diplomacy Meets US Tariff Tensions

September 8, 2025 6:02 AM UTC

Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Tianjin for the SCO Summit underscored India’s pursuit of strategic autonomy—engaging China and Russia while reaffirming ties with the US. Publicly, India backed Eurasian financial and connectivity initiatives, while tactically reopening dialogue with Beijing. Fo

Protests Return to Jakarta—No Threat to Regime, But Signal to Watch

September 2, 2025 12:41 PM UTC

Indonesia’s recent protests are not just about housing allowances—they reflect deeper disillusionment with elite politics. The government may contain unrest in the short term, but the structural issues driving dissent will persist. For businesses and investors, expect periodic social volatility,

India GDP Review: Public Spending and Services Lift India’s Growth to Five-Quarter High

September 2, 2025 6:45 AM UTC

India’s economy grew 7.8% y/y in Q1 FY25, beating expectations. Strong gains in construction, services, and agriculture underpinned the recovery, while private consumption and investment remained subdued. However, sustaining momentum in FY26 will hinge on broad-based demand and improving global co

Indonesia’s August CPI Eases

September 2, 2025 6:27 AM UTC

Inflation is well behaved, food remains a wildcard, and core pressures are easing—giving Bank Indonesia continued policy flexibility as it weighs growth support against global uncertainty.

India GDP Preview: Q1FY26 Growth - Services Surge, Industry Slows: India’s Uneven Q1 Recovery

August 29, 2025 4:49 AM UTC

India’s economy likely grew 6.6% yr/yr in Q1 FY26, down from 7.4% in the previous quarter, as weak private investment and soft industrial output offset robust government spending. Growth was buoyed by strong public capex and resilient services, while manufacturing lagged. Full-year GDP is forecast

Tariffs and Tensions: India–US Trade Talks Stalled as Relations Sour

August 25, 2025 6:25 AM UTC

India–US relations have entered a tense phase after Washington doubled tariffs on Indian exports to 50%, the steepest duties applied to any US trading partner. The move, tied to India’s record Russian oil imports, has derailed trade talks scheduled for late August. With USD 87bn in exports at ri

Bank Indonesia Delivers Surprise Second Rate Cut to Shield Growth

August 21, 2025 5:10 AM UTC

BI is opting for early stimulus while macro buffers remain strong—stable rupiah, low inflation, and manageable deficits. However, this window may close quickly if external risks materialise. Business leaders should expect a monetary pause in Q3, but prepare for moderate volatility if inflation or

Rate Hold Expected as Bank Indonesia Eyes H2 Trade Risks

August 19, 2025 6:26 AM UTC

With headline inflation still well-contained, core pressures softening, and the economy showing signs of resilience, Bank Indonesia is expected to keep rates on hold. Further easing may come later in H2—but only if external risks re-intensify or domestic growth falters.

India CPI Review: Headline inflation drops sharply on account of food prices

August 13, 2025 7:38 AM UTC

India’s retail inflation fell to 1.55% yr/yr in July 2025, its lowest since 2017 and below the RBI’s 2–6% target band for the first time in over six years. The drop was driven by a sharp contraction in food prices, even as edible oil and fruit inflation remained elevated. With inflation well b

Mexico: Further 25bps Cuts Ahead

August 8, 2025 6:44 AM UTC

Banxico forward guidance, plus trade policy risks with the U.S. now see us forecasting an end 2025 policy rate at 7.25% with two 25bps cuts in September and December. We now feel that the risks to 2026 growth will encourage Banxico to move the policy rate down to 6.5% by spring 2026 by two 25bps rat

No Rush to Ease: RBI Flags External Risks, Holds Policy Steady

August 6, 2025 4:39 PM UTC

The RBI held the policy rate at 5.5% in its August 2025 meeting, opting for a strategic pause after front-loading 100bps of cuts earlier this year. While inflation has dropped sharply, global trade risks and sticky core prices argue against further easing for now. The central bank’s neutral stance

Indonesia Q2 GDP Beats Expectations

August 5, 2025 9:45 AM UTC

Q2’s outperformance gives Indonesia’s economic planners breathing space. Investment recovery is a strong positive signal, but sustaining growth in H2 will depend on policy agility, export resilience, and keeping domestic consumption robust.

Tariffs and Tensions: India Holds Its Ground Amid US Pressure

August 4, 2025 5:17 AM UTC

India has responded firmly to US tariff escalation, defending its strategic autonomy on Russian oil and domestic market protections. The economic hit is manageable, but the geopolitical signal is clear: India won’t yield under pressure. Talks will continue, but New Delhi won’t trade core interes

RBI to Hold in August as Policy Cycle Enters Pause Phase

August 4, 2025 4:00 AM UTC

The upcoming RBI August meeting is not about action, but observation. With macro indicators largely aligned and risks tilting toward caution, a rate hold by the RBI is expected. Inflation remains subdued, but growth is resilient—requiring no immediate policy move

Indonesia’s Trade Surplus Widens Sharply in H1 2025 Despite Tariff Headwinds

August 3, 2025 4:43 PM UTC

Indonesia’s June trade numbers reflect a strong first-half export performance, bolstered by frontloading ahead of US tariffs. The 62-month surplus streak highlights ongoing resilience, but softer trade momentum in H2 is anticipated as the tariff impact begins to filter through.

Indonesia’s July CPI Rises on Food Prices, But BI Still Has Room to Ease

August 3, 2025 3:27 PM UTC

Despite a food-driven uptick in July CPI, Indonesia’s inflation remains comfortably within Bank Indonesia’s target range. BI retains room to cut rates further in H2—though global uncertainty, particularly around US trade policy and Fed moves, may temper the pace of easing.

Indonesia’s 2026 Blueprint: Growth Goals Amid a Shaky Global Backdrop

July 28, 2025 5:54 AM UTC

Indonesia’s newly approved 2026 macroeconomic framework targets robust growth, fiscal discipline, and poverty eradication. However, external headwinds—including unresolved US tariff risks—and tepid domestic consumption pose serious execution risks. Without sharper prioritisation and institutio

The India–UK Free Trade Agreement: Big Win or Big Gamble?

July 28, 2025 4:37 AM UTC

India and the UK have signed a landmark Free Trade Agreement aimed at doubling bilateral trade by 2030. The deal grants India near-total duty-free access for its goods, boosts prospects for agriculture, textiles, and services, and safeguards sensitive sectors. It also signals New Delhi’s evolving

No Deal Yet: India–US Trade Talks Stretch Beyond August Deadline

July 24, 2025 5:42 AM UTC

India and the US have made progress in negotiations for an interim trade deal, but key sticking points—particularly around agriculture and autos—remain unresolved ahead of the August 1 deadline for new US tariffs. President Trump’s tariff-first strategy has pushed India to seek partial relief,

Deal or Dilemma: What the US–Indonesia Trade Pact Really Means

July 17, 2025 5:46 AM UTC

The US–Indonesia trade deal marks a significant geopolitical and economic pivot, reducing a threatened 32% tariff to 19% in exchange for USD 34bn in US imports and open market access. While the agreement offers Jakarta temporary relief, it locks the country into a transactional trade model amid ri

India CPI Review: CPI at 2.1%: Increased Headroom for One More Cut

July 15, 2025 4:33 AM UTC

India’s retail inflation dropped to a six-year low of 2.82% in May, driven by easing food prices and supported by favourable base effects. While disinflation continues to create monetary space, RBI's next rate cut will be data driven. 

India CPI Preview: Inflation Set to Ease Further in June

July 11, 2025 12:00 PM UTC

India’s retail inflation is likely to drop further in June to 2.7% y/r/yr supported by lower food prices and high base effects. This will allow RBI sufficient room to cut interest rates further in H2-2025. 

Indonesia CPI Review: CPI Inches Up, But BI Still Has Room to Ease

July 3, 2025 8:12 AM UTC

Indonesia’s inflation edged up to 1.87% yr/yr in June on higher food prices, but overall price pressures remain subdued. With CPI well within Bank Indonesia’s target range and growth momentum softening, the central bank retains room to cut rates again in the second half of 2025.

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Slower Trade, Softer Inflation, and Looser Policy

June 24, 2025 9:24 AM UTC

·       Asia’s growth profile in 2025 reflects a region navigating structural transition amid external strain. Investment-led economies like India are benefitting from infrastructure spending, industrial policy momentum, and political continuity. In contrast, trade-reliant markets such as V

BI Likely to Keep Rates Unchanged Amid Global Volatility

June 16, 2025 5:41 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia is expected to hold rates at 5.50% in June after two cuts earlier this year, opting for a pause amid global uncertainty. Subdued inflation and a stable rupiah provide policy space, but the central bank is likely to wait for clearer signals from the Fed. A fresh rate cut remains likely

India CPI Review: CPI at 2.82%: Disinflation Deepens, But Risks Linger

June 13, 2025 7:18 AM UTC

India’s retail inflation dropped to a six-year low of 2.82% in May, driven by easing food prices and supported by favourable base effects. While disinflation continues to create monetary space, RBI's next rate cut will be data driven. 

Indonesia CPI Review: CPI Moderates Making Room For Rate Cut

June 4, 2025 9:55 AM UTC

Indonesia’s inflation slowed further in May, while the country’s trade surplus narrowed to its lowest level in five years, deepening expectations that Bank Indonesia (BI) could pursue additional rate cuts later this year to cushion slowing domestic growth.

India GDP Review: Growth Outpaces Expectations as Q4 GDP Hits Four-Quarter High

June 2, 2025 11:56 AM UTC

India’s economy grew 7.4% y/y in Q4 FY25, beating expectations and capping full-year growth at 6.5%. Strong gains in construction, services, and agriculture underpinned the recovery, while private consumption and investment strengthened. However, sustaining momentum in FY26 will hinge on broad-bas