Indonesia

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October 17, 2024

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Indonesia Country Risk
Freemium Article

October 17, 2024 6:30 AM UTC

We provide country risk review for Indonesia.  

October 01, 2024

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Indonesia CPI Review: Cooling Inflation Signals More Rate Cuts Ahead for Indonesia
Paying Article

October 1, 2024 9:25 AM UTC

In September, Indonesia experienced its slowest inflation in nearly three years, driven by a drop in food and transport costs. Core inflation edged up, reflecting price increases in non-essential goods. The ongoing deflationary trend since May, influenced by supply-side factors like strong harvests,

September 27, 2024

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September Outlook: Rate Cuts But How Far?
Paying Article

September 27, 2024 7:44 AM UTC

The 15 chapters of our September Outlook have now been published.  See the headlines and weblinks enclosed for links to the articles on economic, policy and markets for the 23 countries that we cover.

September 25, 2024

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Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Shifting Gears for Growth
Paying Article

September 25, 2024 7:57 AM UTC

Emerging Asian economies are poised to remain the fastest growing globally. India and Southeast Asia will drive regional resilience amid China’s cooling growth engine in 2025. For India, while the external environment remains challenging due to weaker global demand and geopolitical tensions, domes

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Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts But How Far?
Paying Article

September 25, 2024 7:30 AM UTC

·        The U.S. economy is slowing, with the critical question being whether this is a soft or harder landing.  Our broad analysis leaves us inclined to the soft landing view into 2025, though we shall watch real sector data closely over the next 3-6 months to check the trajectory.  Else

September 16, 2024

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Bank Indonesia Preview: Rupiah Defense - BI to Hold Rates, Eye Future Easing
Paying Article

September 16, 2024 8:24 AM UTC

Easing food inflation saw headline CPI decline to 2.1% yr/yr in July. Nonetheless, price pressures from a weakening IDR persist. Bank Indonesia will likely hold rates till Q4-2024. 

September 15, 2024

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Sep 27 Outlook Webinar: Rate Cuts But How Far?
Paying Article

September 15, 2024 10:30 AM UTC

    Uncertainty about whether the U.S. economy will have a soft or hard landing is growing as the market approaches Q4.  This is shaping the debate regarding the scale of easing through the remainder of 2024 and 2025 by the Fed.  European easing is underway, but how much further will central ba

September 03, 2024

Indonesia CPI Review: Food Price Pressures Ease
Paying Article

September 3, 2024 10:12 AM UTC

Easing food inflation saw headline CPI decline to 2.12% yr/yr in August. Nonetheless, price pressures from a weakening IDR persist. Bank Indonesia will likely hold rates till Q4-2024. 

August 27, 2024

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Indonesia's Election Law Drama: Court Rulings and Political Fallout
Freemium Article

August 27, 2024 6:57 AM UTC

In a dramatic turn of events, Indonesia's parliament abandoned its plan to amend electoral laws. The parliament had recently planned to amend the country's electoral laws, aiming to overturn pivotal decisions by the Constitutional Court. The proposed changes, which have sparked widespread controvers

August 26, 2024

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Hajj Surge and Trade Squeeze Drive Indonesia's Q2 Deficit Higher
Freemium Article

August 26, 2024 6:58 AM UTC

Indonesia's current account deficit widened to US$ 3.0bn in Q2 2024, driven by a higher services deficit from increased Hajj travel and a narrowing trade surplus. Strong portfolio investment inflows helped offset some pressures, but FDI inflows fell sharply. The H1 deficit reached US$ 5.4bn, up from

August 22, 2024

Rupiah Gains Ground: BI Stays Cautious on Rate Cuts
Paying Article

August 22, 2024 11:26 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia held its key interest rate at 6.25% to stabilise the rupiah and attract FX inflows, while maintaining interventions in the FX and bond markets. Inflation remains within target, and GDP growth forecasts are steady. Future rate cuts depend on US Federal Reserve actions. A 25bps cut is e

August 20, 2024

Indonesia's 2025 Draft Budget: A High-Stakes Gamble on Growth and Subsidies
Freemium Article

August 20, 2024 6:24 AM UTC

Indonesia's 2025 budget is a high-risk gamble, with potential for the fiscal deficit to breach the 3% of GDP legal threshold. The ambitious revenue targets and planned spending cuts pose significant challenges, particularly in a low commodity price environment. The reliance on optimistic tax revenue

August 14, 2024

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EM Markets Divergence with China Harder Landing Concerns
Paying Article

August 14, 2024 3:35 PM UTC

Global market turbulence has had a spillover impact into EM, but also some EM assets have benefitted from rotation away from the U.S.  What are the prospects in the coming months?
We see scope for a 2nd wave of U.S. equity and Japanese Yen (JPY) correction, which are a mixed influence for EM assets

August 11, 2024

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Indonesia Q2 GDP Review: Resilient Economic Activity
Paying Article

August 11, 2024 4:48 PM UTC

Bottom line: Indonesia's Q2 GDP growth is expected to ease to 5% yr/yr. While government consumption is expected to have remained stable, moderation in Indonesia's external sector will hold growth back. Additionally, with no longer the boost from festive demand, private consumption is also expected

August 04, 2024

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Indonesia Q2 GDP Preview: Slight Easing After a Robust Start
Paying Article

August 4, 2024 8:00 PM UTC

Bottom line: Indonesia's Q2 GDP growth is expected to ease to 5% yr/yr. While government consumption is expected to have remained stable, moderation in Indonesia's external sector will hold growth back. Additionally, with no longer the boost from festive demand, private consumption is also expected

July 17, 2024

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Stable Rupiah, Steady Growth: Inside Bank Indonesia's Latest Rate Decision
Paying Article

July 17, 2024 1:13 PM UTC

Bank Indonesia held its key interest rate at 6.25% to stabilize the rupiah and attract FX inflows, while maintaining interventions in the FX and bond markets. Inflation remains within target, and GDP growth forecasts are steady. Future rate cuts depend on US Federal Reserve actions. A 25bps cut is e

July 15, 2024

Prabowo's Economic Vision: Ambitious Targets and Fiscal Debates for 2025
Freemium Article

July 15, 2024 4:22 PM UTC

Indonesia's parliament has set ambitious economic targets for 2025, tasking Bank Indonesia with strengthening the rupiah to USD/IDR 15,300-15,900.  The parliament also set a GDP growth target of 5.3-5.6% and a fiscal deficit target of 2.29-2.82% of GDP. Despite revising the 2024 fiscal deficit to 2

July 11, 2024

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Asia: Select Country Risk Ratings
Paying Article

July 11, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Asia countries including India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam. 

July 02, 2024

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Softening inflation will provide BI room to hold rate
Freemium Article

July 2, 2024 1:36 PM UTC

Bank Indonesia in a pro-stability move decided to maintain the key policy rate at 6.25%. The move comes at a time when the weakness in the Indonesia Rupiah has increased in recent weeks. A rate cut is therefore not on the horizon. 

June 26, 2024

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June Outlook: Cyclical and Structural Forces
Paying Article

June 26, 2024 7:58 AM UTC

The 15 chapters of our June Outlook have now been published.  See the headlines and weblinks enclosed for links to the articles on economic, policy and markets for the 23 countries that we cover

June 25, 2024

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Outlook Overview: Cyclical and Structural Forces
Paying Article

June 25, 2024 10:15 AM UTC

•    The global economy is showing signs of healing, as inflation comes back towards targets and growth recovers momentum in some economies. Nevertheless, the cyclical headwind of lagged monetary tightening remains in DM countries, and will likely be one of the forces slowing the U.S. economy

June 21, 2024

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Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Growth Momentum but Delayed Rate Cuts
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 9:45 AM UTC

•    Economic activity in emerging Asian economies is forecast to remain strong. Despite several challenges, including a tight oil market, constrained liquidity conditions, and delayed rate cuts, the region's economic activity is expected to show resilience. Other potential obstacles include u

June 03, 2024

Indonesia CPI Review: Food Prices to Maintain Pressure
Paying Article

June 3, 2024 11:28 AM UTC

Easing food inflation saw headline CPI decline to 2.8% yr/yr in May. Nonetheless, price pressures from a weakening IDR persist. Bank Indonesia will likely hold rates till Q4-2024. 

May 28, 2024

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Indonesia CPI Preview: Food Prices to Maintain Pressure
Paying Article

May 28, 2024 10:11 AM UTC

Indonesia’s consumer price inflation is expected to remain broadly stable at the 3% y-o-y mark in May. Supply disruption due to floods in Sumatra region alongside persistent high food prices will keep price pressures elevated. 

May 22, 2024

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Bank Indonesia Holds Firm on Rates: A Steady Hand for Currency Stability
Paying Article

May 22, 2024 9:29 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia in a pro-stability move decided to maintain the key policy rate at 6.25% today. The move comes at a time when the wakness in the Indonesia Rupiah has abated and headline inflation has edged down. Despite improving stability, a rate cut is not in sight in the near term. 

May 07, 2024

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Indonesia Q4 GDP Review: Robust Start to 2024
Paying Article

May 7, 2024 1:22 PM UTC

Bottom line: Indonesia's Q1 GDP — released on May 6 — saw growth rebound to 5.1% yr/yr from 4.90% yr/yr in Q4 2023. While private consumption continued its ascent, government expenditure emerged as the key driver of Indonesia's growth narrative. Private consumption was supported by festive deman

May 03, 2024

Indonesia CPI Review: Inflation Inches Down but BI on Alert
Paying Article

May 3, 2024 10:33 AM UTC

Indonesia’s consumer price inflation eased marginally to 3% yr/yr in April on the back of declining food prices. Despite the easing, food price remain the key inflationary factor. Additionally, imported inflation as the IDR comes under pressure could keep inflation elevated in the near term. Bank

April 29, 2024

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Indonesia CPI Preview: Food Prices to Push Up CPI in April
Paying Article

April 29, 2024 1:25 PM UTC

Indonesia’s consumer price inflation in expected to continue to trend upward in April. Food prices, alongside higher transportation price growth will drive up inflation. Furthermore, increased demand during Ramadan will also weigh on headline inflation. 

April 23, 2024

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Indonesia: MPC Preview: Bank Indonesia to Hold Rate Despite Currency Volatility
Paying Article

April 23, 2024 11:12 AM UTC

With inflation within target range and the need to defend the currency amid global uncertainties and US dollar strength, Bank Indonesia (BI) is likely to extend its pause on rate adjustments in the upcoming monetary policy meeting on April 24. BI remains committed to stabilising the Indonesian rupia

April 22, 2024

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Indonesian Court Delivers Verdict: Prabowo prevails
Paying Article

April 22, 2024 3:18 PM UTC

The Constitutional Court dismissed cases against Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka and President Joko Widodo. In Gibran's case, the court didn't disqualify him from running for president but sanctioned the election committee for not amending regulations following a previous ruling. This ruling l

April 17, 2024

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Asia Country Risk Ratings
Paying Article

April 17, 2024 3:00 PM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Asia countries including China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Taiwan.  

April 03, 2024

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March Outlook: Europe in Focus, Then Elections Around the World
Paying Article

April 3, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

April 01, 2024

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Indonesia CPI Review: Ramadan Demand Drives Up Inflation
Paying Article

April 1, 2024 1:33 PM UTC

Indonesia's latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data has revealed a notable acceleration in inflation, surpassing expectations and marking the highest rate since August 2023. The surge, driven primarily by heightened demand during the fasting month of Ramadan, highlights significant price pressures ac

March 27, 2024

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March Outlook: Europe in Focus, Then Elections Around the World
Paying Article

March 27, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

March 25, 2024

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Outlook Overview: Europe in Focus, Then Elections Around the World
Paying Article

March 25, 2024 11:15 AM UTC

March 22, 2024

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Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Election Spending to Drive Growth
Paying Article

March 22, 2024 12:18 PM UTC

·       In 2024, growth trends across emerging Asia will exhibit a mixed pattern. Encouragingly, there will be a resurgence in demand for global electronics following a period of stagnation in 2022‑23, which will provide a boost to regional trade. Moreover, the initiation of monetary policy

March 18, 2024

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Bank Indonesia to Retain Policy Rate
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 5:40 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia (BI) will likely maintain the key 7-day reverse repo rate unchanged in March at 6%, in line with recent trends. The stability of the rupiah remains a crucial consideration for BI, alongside CPI inflation, which has moderated within the new target band of 2.5+/-1%. 

March 11, 2024

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Elections to Keep Asia in Limelight in 2024
Paying Article

March 11, 2024 9:05 AM UTC

2024 is turning out to be a significant year for the Asian political scene. At the start of the year, eight countries were scheduled to hold elections this year, with close to 2.2bn people voting this year across emerging Asian economies. 
With elections now over in four of the eight countries, the

March 07, 2024

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Bank Indonesia to Look Beyond Recent Uptick in Consumer Price Index
Paying Article

March 7, 2024 4:06 AM UTC

Indonesia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) indicates a notable uptick in inflation, reaching 2.75% y/y in February compared to 2.57% y/y in January. The three-month high inflation rate was primarily propelled by surging food prices, aligning with expe

February 28, 2024

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Indonesia Preview: CPI to remain broadly stable
Paying Article

February 28, 2024 3:29 PM UTC

Indonesia’s February inflation is likely to remain broadly stable. Food prices will maintain upward pressures but a tight monetary stance will keep headline inflation in check. Increased demand ahead of Ramadan could see prices spike in March. 

February 22, 2024

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Indonesia's Elections: Prabowo Subianto Emerges as Front-Runner
Paying Article

February 22, 2024 11:30 AM UTC

Prabowo Subianto emerges as the front-runner in Indonesia's recent national elections, securing a substantial lead of approximately 60% in preliminary sample counts, potentially avoiding a runoff and reducing political uncertainty. While his decisive victory provides him with political capital, conc

January 16, 2024

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Indonesia: PDI-P To Maintain Power and Policies
Paying Article

January 16, 2024 9:17 AM UTC

Looking ahead to the upcoming legislative and presidential elections scheduled for February 14, 2024, the centre-left Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P) is expected to maintain its position as the largest single party in the House of People's Representatives (DPR). 

January 11, 2024

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Webinar Recording December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
Paying Article

January 11, 2024 8:22 AM UTC

January 08, 2024

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Charting our Views December Outlook
Freemium Article

January 8, 2024 9:05 AM UTC

January 05, 2024

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Bank Indonesia Navigating the Path to Sustained Growth
Paying Article

January 5, 2024 10:17 AM UTC

As Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eases and BI maintains a delicate balance, the nation's economic outlook takes centre stage. Recent data from Indonesia's Central Statistics Agency (BPS) reveals a slight deceleration in CPI inflation, dipping to 2.6% y/y in December from 2.9% y/y in the previ