Indonesia

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July 11, 2024

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Asia: Select Country Risk Ratings
Paying Article

July 11, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Asia countries including India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam. 

July 02, 2024

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Softening inflation will provide BI room to hold rate
Freemium Article

July 2, 2024 1:36 PM UTC

Bank Indonesia in a pro-stability move decided to maintain the key policy rate at 6.25%. The move comes at a time when the weakness in the Indonesia Rupiah has increased in recent weeks. A rate cut is therefore not on the horizon. 

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Webinar Recording June Outlook: Cyclical and Structural Forces
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July 2, 2024 7:30 AM UTC

June 26, 2024

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June Outlook: Cyclical and Structural Forces
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June 26, 2024 7:58 AM UTC

The 15 chapters of our June Outlook have now been published.  See the headlines and weblinks enclosed for links to the articles on economic, policy and markets for the 23 countries that we cover

June 25, 2024

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Outlook Overview: Cyclical and Structural Forces
Paying Article

June 25, 2024 10:15 AM UTC

•    The global economy is showing signs of healing, as inflation comes back towards targets and growth recovers momentum in some economies. Nevertheless, the cyclical headwind of lagged monetary tightening remains in DM countries, and will likely be one of the forces slowing the U.S. economy

June 21, 2024

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Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Growth Momentum but Delayed Rate Cuts
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 9:45 AM UTC

•    Economic activity in emerging Asian economies is forecast to remain strong. Despite several challenges, including a tight oil market, constrained liquidity conditions, and delayed rate cuts, the region's economic activity is expected to show resilience. Other potential obstacles include u

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Bank Indonesia Holds Rate Despite IDR Weakness
Paying Article

June 21, 2024 5:54 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia in a pro-stability move decided to maintain the key policy rate at 6.25%. The move comes at a time when the weakness in the Indonesia Rupiah has increased in recent weeks. A rate cut is therefore not on the horizon. 

June 03, 2024

Indonesia CPI Review: Food Prices to Maintain Pressure
Paying Article

June 3, 2024 11:28 AM UTC

Easing food inflation saw headline CPI decline to 2.8% yr/yr in May. Nonetheless, price pressures from a weakening IDR persist. Bank Indonesia will likely hold rates till Q4-2024. 

May 28, 2024

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Indonesia CPI Preview: Food Prices to Maintain Pressure
Paying Article

May 28, 2024 10:11 AM UTC

Indonesia’s consumer price inflation is expected to remain broadly stable at the 3% y-o-y mark in May. Supply disruption due to floods in Sumatra region alongside persistent high food prices will keep price pressures elevated. 

May 22, 2024

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Bank Indonesia Holds Firm on Rates: A Steady Hand for Currency Stability
Paying Article

May 22, 2024 9:29 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia in a pro-stability move decided to maintain the key policy rate at 6.25% today. The move comes at a time when the wakness in the Indonesia Rupiah has abated and headline inflation has edged down. Despite improving stability, a rate cut is not in sight in the near term. 

May 07, 2024

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Indonesia Q4 GDP Review: Robust Start to 2024
Paying Article

May 7, 2024 1:22 PM UTC

Bottom line: Indonesia's Q1 GDP — released on May 6 — saw growth rebound to 5.1% yr/yr from 4.90% yr/yr in Q4 2023. While private consumption continued its ascent, government expenditure emerged as the key driver of Indonesia's growth narrative. Private consumption was supported by festive deman

May 03, 2024

Indonesia CPI Review: Inflation Inches Down but BI on Alert
Paying Article

May 3, 2024 10:33 AM UTC

Indonesia’s consumer price inflation eased marginally to 3% yr/yr in April on the back of declining food prices. Despite the easing, food price remain the key inflationary factor. Additionally, imported inflation as the IDR comes under pressure could keep inflation elevated in the near term. Bank

April 29, 2024

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Indonesia CPI Preview: Food Prices to Push Up CPI in April
Paying Article

April 29, 2024 1:25 PM UTC

Indonesia’s consumer price inflation in expected to continue to trend upward in April. Food prices, alongside higher transportation price growth will drive up inflation. Furthermore, increased demand during Ramadan will also weigh on headline inflation. 

April 23, 2024

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Indonesia: MPC Preview: Bank Indonesia to Hold Rate Despite Currency Volatility
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April 23, 2024 11:12 AM UTC

With inflation within target range and the need to defend the currency amid global uncertainties and US dollar strength, Bank Indonesia (BI) is likely to extend its pause on rate adjustments in the upcoming monetary policy meeting on April 24. BI remains committed to stabilising the Indonesian rupia

April 22, 2024

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Indonesian Court Delivers Verdict: Prabowo prevails
Paying Article

April 22, 2024 3:18 PM UTC

The Constitutional Court dismissed cases against Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka and President Joko Widodo. In Gibran's case, the court didn't disqualify him from running for president but sanctioned the election committee for not amending regulations following a previous ruling. This ruling l

April 17, 2024

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Asia Country Risk Ratings
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April 17, 2024 3:00 PM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Asia countries including China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Taiwan.  

April 03, 2024

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March Outlook: Europe in Focus, Then Elections Around the World
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April 3, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

April 01, 2024

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Indonesia CPI Review: Ramadan Demand Drives Up Inflation
Paying Article

April 1, 2024 1:33 PM UTC

Indonesia's latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data has revealed a notable acceleration in inflation, surpassing expectations and marking the highest rate since August 2023. The surge, driven primarily by heightened demand during the fasting month of Ramadan, highlights significant price pressures ac

March 27, 2024

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March Outlook: Europe in Focus, Then Elections Around the World
Paying Article

March 27, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

March 25, 2024

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Outlook Overview: Europe in Focus, Then Elections Around the World
Paying Article

March 25, 2024 11:15 AM UTC

March 22, 2024

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Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Election Spending to Drive Growth
Paying Article

March 22, 2024 12:18 PM UTC

·       In 2024, growth trends across emerging Asia will exhibit a mixed pattern. Encouragingly, there will be a resurgence in demand for global electronics following a period of stagnation in 2022‑23, which will provide a boost to regional trade. Moreover, the initiation of monetary policy

March 18, 2024

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Bank Indonesia to Retain Policy Rate
Paying Article

March 18, 2024 5:40 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia (BI) will likely maintain the key 7-day reverse repo rate unchanged in March at 6%, in line with recent trends. The stability of the rupiah remains a crucial consideration for BI, alongside CPI inflation, which has moderated within the new target band of 2.5+/-1%. 

March 11, 2024

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Elections to Keep Asia in Limelight in 2024
Paying Article

March 11, 2024 9:05 AM UTC

2024 is turning out to be a significant year for the Asian political scene. At the start of the year, eight countries were scheduled to hold elections this year, with close to 2.2bn people voting this year across emerging Asian economies. 
With elections now over in four of the eight countries, the

March 07, 2024

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Bank Indonesia to Look Beyond Recent Uptick in Consumer Price Index
Paying Article

March 7, 2024 4:06 AM UTC

Indonesia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) indicates a notable uptick in inflation, reaching 2.75% y/y in February compared to 2.57% y/y in January. The three-month high inflation rate was primarily propelled by surging food prices, aligning with expe

February 28, 2024

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Indonesia Preview: CPI to remain broadly stable
Paying Article

February 28, 2024 3:29 PM UTC

Indonesia’s February inflation is likely to remain broadly stable. Food prices will maintain upward pressures but a tight monetary stance will keep headline inflation in check. Increased demand ahead of Ramadan could see prices spike in March. 

February 22, 2024

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Indonesia's Elections: Prabowo Subianto Emerges as Front-Runner
Paying Article

February 22, 2024 11:30 AM UTC

Prabowo Subianto emerges as the front-runner in Indonesia's recent national elections, securing a substantial lead of approximately 60% in preliminary sample counts, potentially avoiding a runoff and reducing political uncertainty. While his decisive victory provides him with political capital, conc

January 16, 2024

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Indonesia: PDI-P To Maintain Power and Policies
Paying Article

January 16, 2024 9:17 AM UTC

Indonesia, the world's fourth-most populous nation, is poised for a significant political transition as President Joko Widodo, widely known as Jokowi, is set to step down in early-2024 after a presidential election.  Looking ahead to the upcoming legislative and presidential elections scheduled for

January 11, 2024

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Webinar Recording December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
Paying Article

January 11, 2024 8:22 AM UTC

You can now access the webinar for the December Outlook here. 
To read the individual chapters please see the weblink below.  
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
China Outloo

January 08, 2024

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Charting our Views December Outlook
Freemium Article

January 8, 2024 9:05 AM UTC

Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
Economic Scenarios 
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
Brazil Policy Rate and CPI Inflation (YoY, %)
China Outlook: Headwinds To China Growth (here)
Japan Outlook: Normalizing

January 05, 2024

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Bank Indonesia Navigating the Path to Sustained Growth
Paying Article

January 5, 2024 10:17 AM UTC

Delving into the components of CPI, the December easing is attributed to a multifaceted slowdown in both food and utility prices. Disinflationary pressures from household equipment, restaurants, and personal care items contributed to the overall dip. However, information and recreation prices exerte

January 02, 2024

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December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
Paying Article

January 2, 2024 9:53 AM UTC

Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
China Outlook: Headwinds To China Growth (here)
Japan Outlook: Normalizing Monetary Policy Soon (here)
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook:

December 19, 2023

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December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
Paying Article

December 19, 2023 3:15 PM UTC

Japan Outlook: Normalizing Monetary Policy Soon (here)
DM FX Outlook: The Year of the Yen (here)
EM FX Outlook: USD Decline v Inflation Differentials (here)
Technical Analysis Quarterly Chartbook (here)

December 18, 2023

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Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024
Paying Article

December 18, 2023 3:42 PM UTC

·     Uncertainty still prevails around this central view.  The impact of lagged monetary tightening could be greater than our estimates and deliver mild recessions in some DM countries.  We also feel that the disinflationary process could be stronger and this would help bring inflation back

October 23, 2023

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Asia and Elections: Country Risk
Paying Article

October 23, 2023 7:29 AM UTC

Asia Regional Overview
India continues to be an investor haven supported by strong economic growth and stable policy guidance. The political environment is heating up in India as well, as the country prepares for regional elections in five states in end-2023 and then for the larger general elections

September 27, 2023

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Public Spending to be Catalyst
Paying Article

September 27, 2023 2:11 PM UTC

Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics
Risks to Our Views
Source: Datastream
Regional Dynamics: Governments to Prop-up Growth 
As in 2022, emerging economies in Asia demonstrated their continued outperformance compared to other emerging markets and exhibited greater resilience compared to developed

August 18, 2023

Indonesia's Narrowing Surplus Weighs on IDR
Paying Article

August 18, 2023 9:54 AM UTC

Figure 1: Indonesia Trade Balance (USD bn)
Source: Datastream
Shifting Trade Dynamics 
Export performance has been a key driver behind the dwindling trade surplus. The data revealed that exports fell by 18% y/y, largely in line with our expectations. Notably, coal exports plummeted by 46.1% y/y, as de

August 09, 2023

Indonesia's Q2 2023 Growth Beats Expectations; Promising Outlook
Paying Article

August 9, 2023 12:37 PM UTC

Figure 1: Indonesia GDP growth (%)
Source: Badan Pusat Statistik
According to data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), GDP growth accelerated from 5.04 y/y in Q1 to 5.17% y/y in Q2. Furthermore, the economy rebounded on a quarterly basis, expanding by 3.86% q/q, recovering from a 0.91% q/q contr

July 25, 2023

Bank Indonesia: Rate Hold Suggests IDR Stability a Priority
Paying Article

July 25, 2023 1:39 PM UTC

Figure 1: BI Main Policy Rate, Indonesia Consumer Price Inflation (%)
Source: Badan Pusat Statistik and Bank Indonesia
In line with our view, Bank Indonesia extended its rate pause for the seventh consecutive meeting today, retaining its benchmark policy rate at 5.75%. The decision was in line with ma

July 21, 2023

Asia: Election Fever and High Inflation Impact
Paying Article

July 21, 2023 7:26 AM UTC

Alongside India, its neighbor Pakistan’s elections are due in October, which will likely stoke violence there. Indonesia too is gearing up for elections in early 2024 and the political landscape there is also tense. In the past quarter, political risks were elevated in Asia given unpopular policie

Asia Country Risk Ratings
Paying Article

July 21, 2023 7:15 AM UTC

Afghanistan
Afghanistan has a very-high overall risk. The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (ruling political entity) is under the leadership of the Taliban, a predominantly Pashtun, and Islamic fundamentalist political movement. The presence of ethnic fragmentation, Islamic terrorist movement and human

July 14, 2023

Unleashing the Tempest: El Niño's Looming Threat to Asian Economies
Paying Article

July 14, 2023 9:37 AM UTC

Asia has emerged as a resilient region having faced a triad of shocks in the past year (Ukraine conflict, monetary tightening and commodity price rally), now faces a looming threat in the form of El Niño, with far-reaching consequences. Climate experts globally have highlighted a moderate to high r

June 21, 2023

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Defying Global Headwinds
Paying Article

June 21, 2023 11:01 AM UTC

Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics
Risks to Our Views
Source: Datastream
Regional Dynamics: Capital Spending to Buoy Economies 
As seen in 2022, emerging Asian economies will continue to outperform other emerging markets and prove to be more resilient than the developed economies. Asia is expecte

March 28, 2023

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Asian Powerhouses Lead Post War and Post Pandemic Growth
Paying Article

March 28, 2023 9:58 AM UTC

Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics
Risks to Our Views
Source: Continuum Economics
Regional Dynamics: Worsening External Demand To Be A Drag 
Slowing global trade and global economic growth will be drag on Asia’s growth story in 2023. Waning global demand for Asia’s key exports, especially for

February 27, 2023

Emerging Asia Faces Crosswinds
Paying Article

February 27, 2023 9:31 AM UTC

Indonesia: Lowest Trade Surplus Since May 2022
Indonesia’s trade surplus came in lower than market expectations as it dipped to $3.9bn in December 2022, from $5.1bn in November. The overall trade balance for Indonesia was at a record high of $54bn in 2022, on account of higher commodity prices duri