Sweden Riksbank Preview (Nov 7): Rate Cuts Driven Increasingly by Weak Economy

October 29, 2024 10:09 AM UTC

A fourth successive 25 bp rate cut (to 3.0%) is widely seen at the looming Riksbank meeting (Nov 7), with the risk that it may even be the 50 bp move that was hinted at as part of the two further cuts advertised at the last (September) meeting.  What seems clear is that inflation worries have subsi

Western Europe Outlook: Gradualism vs Reality

September 26, 2024 10:45 AM UTC

·       In the UK, while headline GDP numbers look firmer, the real economy backdrop and outlook remains no better than mixed.  This should improve a disinflation process driven mainly by friendlier supply conditions. The BoE will likely ease in Q4 and continue doing so through 2025 (we look

Sweden Riksbank Review: Rate Cuts – Faster and a Little Further?

September 25, 2024 8:15 AM UTC

A third successive 25 bp rate cut (to 3.25%) surprised no-one at this month’s Riksbank meeting.  More notably, updated forecasts more formally validated both the likelihood and the rationale for the two added cuts by end-year that the Board hinted at after the August easing and which largely are

Sweden Riksbank Preview (Sep 25): Rate Cuts – Faster and Further?

September 17, 2024 8:45 AM UTC

A third successive 25 bp rate looms at this month’s Riksbank meeting verdict (Sep 25) to 3.25%.  More notably, updated forecasts are likely to more formally validate the rationale for the two added cuts by end-year that the Board hinted at after the August easing and which now seem all but certai

Riksbank Deliver 25bps and More to Come

August 20, 2024 7:58 AM UTC

Riksbank appear more concerned about a weak economy, which is causing forward guidance of a faster pace of easing after today’s 25bps cut to 3.50%.  We look for 25bps cuts at the September and December meeting and a further 25bps is possible at the November meeting if inflation remains under cont

Sweden Riksbank Preview (Aug 20): Still Trying to be Gradual?

August 14, 2024 8:15 AM UTC

Recent data have justified the Riksbank’s increased confidence in the current disinflation process and is highly likely to exercise its easing bias with a second (in three months) 25 bp rate cut (to 3.5%) at the Sep 20 policy verdict.  As for future policy, in a Board meeting with no fresh projec

Sweden Riksbank Review: Slightly Less Gradual

June 27, 2024 9:29 AM UTC

The Riksbank is more confident in the current disinflation process.  While none expected any further cuts at this policy verdict today, especially after the 25 bp rate cut it made last month, the Board updated Monetary Policy Report suggested there may an additional such cut in H2 over and beyond t

Western Europe Outlook: Easing Cycles Diverge?

June 24, 2024 7:48 AM UTC

·       ·       In the UK, while downside economic risks may have dissipated, the real economy backdrop and outlook is still no better than mixed.  This should accentuate a disinflation process hitherto driven mainly by friendlier supply conditions. The BoE will likely ease in Q3 and

Sweden Riksbank Preview (Jun 27): Doing It Gradually

June 19, 2024 3:24 PM UTC

As much as the 25 bp rate cut it made last month was the clear hint of two further such cuts in H2 this year, this chiming with its policy outlook in the March (Figure 1) Monetary Policy Report (MPR) as well as our own long-standing view.  By moving at that early juncture, the Board was both reacti

Sweden Riksbank Review: Biting the Bullet

May 8, 2024 8:24 AM UTC

It very much seemed to be a question of when, not if, as far as policy easing is concerned for the Riksbank.  In this regard, albeit surprising in terms of timing, the Riksbank delivered, cutting its policy rate by 25 bp (to 3.75%), despite clear concerns it has flagged about recent and continued k

Sweden Riksbank Preview (May 8): When, Not If?

May 1, 2024 8:09 AM UTC

It seems to be a question of when, not if as far as policy easing is concerned.  Even at it previous policy assessment in February it was clear(er) that the Riksbank accepted that it could and should make its policy stance less contractionary, at least in conventional terms.  But its last decision

Sweden Riksbank Review: Early Easing to Allow Gradual Moves

March 27, 2024 9:58 AM UTC

Even at it previous policy assessment in February it was clear(er) that the Riksbank accepted that it could and should make its policy stance less contractionary, at least in conventional terms.  But its latest decision, again keeping the policy rate at 4%, and no change to the pace of bond sales,

Western Europe Outlook: Easing Cycle Underway?

March 22, 2024 11:26 AM UTC

·        In the UK, downside economic risks may have dissipated but the tighter monetary stance has far from fully bitten. This accentuates and/or prolongs an already weak domestic backdrop into 2025 that will complement friendlier supply conditions in easing inflation. The BoE will likely e

Western Europe Outlook: Inflation Succumbing?

December 15, 2023 2:44 PM UTC

·        In the UK, downside economic risks may still be materializing as the tighter monetary stance has far from fully bitten. This accentuates and/or prolongs an already negative domestic backdrop that may now stretch into 2025. The BoE has already paused and will likely ease next year an

Sweden Riksbank Review: Accepts Improving Inflation Picture and Pauses

November 23, 2023 9:54 AM UTC

For some time we have thought that the Riksbank has finished its hiking, and this line of thinking has been borne out by the unchanged policy decision this month, something also contrary to both previous Riksbank guidance and recent consensus thinking. Recent data have continued to be been mixed but

Long-term Forecasts to download in Excel

November 16, 2023 10:38 AM UTC

Here is a link to an Excel file that contains our headline forecasts for GDP Growth, Inflation, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rates.

Western Europe Outlook: Policy Peaking

September 27, 2023 9:50 AM UTC

Forecast changes: Compared to our June Outlook, GDP growth forecasts have again seen mixed developments, slightly less poor for the UK and Norway for this year, but with 2024 downgrades seen across the board. But it is the upgraded current year inflation projections that explain the more significant

Western Europe Outlook: Consumer Fragilities Persist

June 22, 2023 12:48 PM UTC

Forecast changes: Compared to our March Outlook, GDP growth forecasts have again seen mixed developments, slightly less poor for the UK and Norway, but up clearly in Sweden but where recessions are still on the cards in all but Switzerland. But it is the upgraded inflation projections that explain t

Western Europe Outlook: Valedictory Hiking?

March 27, 2023 3:16 PM UTC

Forecast changes: Compared to our December outlook, GDP growth forecasts have seen mixed developments, better for the UK and Norway, but down further in Sweden but where recession is still on the cards in all but Switzerland. This partly reflects the more significant monetary tightening seen across

In-Depth Research: Quick Roadmap Central Bank Forecast/Rationale - February 2023

February 22, 2023 10:44 AM UTC

M/T Quick Roadmap – Fundamental MMKT/CB Roadmap and Rationale
February 2023
US FEDERAL RESERVE
The February 1 December FOMC meeting saw the pace of tightening slowed to 25bps. Inflation has slowed, but January's CPI details still show broad based inflationary pressures at a pace well above the Fed's