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November 21, 2025
Canada September retail sales - A subdued Q3, October seen unchanged
November 21, 2025 3:22 PM UTC
Canadian retail sales with a 0.7% decline were as the preliminary indicator released with August report had suggested, but ex auto sales exceeded expectations with a rise of 0.2%. Still, Q3 is negative in real terms, and October’s preliminary indicator is unchanged, suggesting a continued subdued
U.S. November S&P PMIs - Still healthy
November 21, 2025 3:01 PM UTC
November’s preliminary S and P PMIs both remain at healthy levels, manufacturing modestly slower at 51.9 from 52.5 but still comfortably positive, while services have unexpectedly seen a modest increase to 55.0 from 54.8. The composite increased to 54.8 from 54.6.
Preview: Due December 5 - Canada November Employment - Correcting from a strong October
November 21, 2025 2:34 PM UTC
Canadian employment data has been volatile in recent months. Underlying trend still seems modestly positive, but after two strong gains in excess of 60k we expect a modest decline of 5k in November. This would lift unemployment to 7.0% from 6.9% in October, still below the 7.1% seen in August and Se
November 20, 2025
Preview: Due November 21 - U.S. November S&P PMIs - Modest corrections lower, still healthy
November 20, 2025 4:05 PM UTC
We expect November’s S and P PMIs to both see modest slippage, manufacturing to 52.0 from 52.5 and services to 54.5 from 54.8 but these will be more corrections from October improvements than any suggestion of underlying weakness. The levels will remain healthy.
U.S. October Existing Home Sales - Starting to gain momentum
November 20, 2025 3:16 PM UTC
A 1.2% rise in October existing home sales is in line with other private sector surveys (NAHB, MBA and pending home sales) suggesting some revival in the housing market as the Fed resumes easing. With the scale of future easing uncertain the housing sector outlook is too.
U.S. Initial Claims stable but Continued Claims moving higher
November 20, 2025 2:45 PM UTC
Today we saw the non-farm payroll for September, as well as eight weeks of initial claims that take us to the survey week for November’s non-farm payroll. Initial claims remain low, though continued claims have been rising in recent weeks, hinting at downside risks for non-farm payrolls in October
U.S. September Employment - Case for a December easing looks a little weaker
November 20, 2025 2:04 PM UTC
September’s non-farm payroll will be the last released before the December 10 FOMC meeting and is surprisingly firm at 119k, albeit with 33k in negative revisions. A rise in unemployment to 4.4% from 4.3% and a 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings provide only marginal offsets to the headline. Nov
November 19, 2025
Preview: Due November 26 - U.S. September Durable Goods Orders - Trend modestly positive
November 19, 2025 4:00 PM UTC
We expect September durable goods orders to increase by 1.4% with a 0.5% increase ex transport, a fifth straight modest rise in the latter showing a clearly if not strongly positive trend.
South Africa Inflation Edged Up to 3.6% y/y in October, Marking the Highest Reading Since September 2024
November 19, 2025 3:53 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on November 19 that annual inflation edged up to 3.6% YoY in October due to accelerated transport, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, and recreation costs. Despite inflation staying within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 1 percenta
Preview: Due November 20 - U.S. October Existing Home Sales - Responding to lower mortgage rates
November 19, 2025 3:24 PM UTC
We expect October existing home sales to increase by 1.0% to 4.10m, extending a 1.5% rise in September to reach the highest level since February, as the housing market gets support from lower mortgage rates as Fed easing resumes.
Preview: Due November 20 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Still subdued, but slightly stronger than in August
November 19, 2025 2:38 PM UTC
We expect September’s non-farm payroll, delayed from October 3, to show another subdued rise, of 45k, with 50k in the private sector, but marginally stronger than July’s respective gains of 22k and 38k. We expect unemployment to slip to 4.2% from 4.3% on a fall in the labor force, while averag
November 18, 2025
U.S. November NAHB Homebuilders Index - Bounce extended but 6-month view corrects lower
November 18, 2025 3:09 PM UTC
November’s NAHB homebuilders’ index of 38 has marginally extended a 5-point October bounce and remains at its highest level since April. Details show increasing strength in current month data but a correction lower in the 6-month view.
Preview: Due November 19 - U.S. August Trade Balance - Deficit to reverse most of a July increase
November 18, 2025 2:10 PM UTC
We expect an August trade deficit of $60.2bn, down from $78.3bn in July but slightly wider than June’s $59.1bn deficit that was the narrowest since March 2023. The deficit remains in a correction from elevated pre-tariff levels that brought a record high of $136.4bn in March. This release was
November 17, 2025
Preview: Due November 28 - Canada Q3/September GDP - September rebound to keep Q3 positive
November 17, 2025 6:58 PM UTC
We expect Q3 Canadian GDP to increase by 0.6% annualized, marginally stronger than a 0.5% estimate made by the Bank of Canada with October’s Monetary Policy report, with September GDP to increase by 0.2% on the month, slightly stronger than a preliminary estimate of 0.1% made with August’s data.
U.S. August Construction Spending - Housing trend turning positive
November 17, 2025 3:15 PM UTC
August construction spending, originally scheduled to be released in early October, has now been released, and is on the firm side of expectations, August marginally with a 0.2% increase, but July was revised to a 0.2% rise from -0.1% and June significantly to a 0.5% rise from a 0.4% decline.
U.S. November Empire State Manufacturing Survey - Activity sees 12 month high, prices slower but still firm
November 17, 2025 2:21 PM UTC
November’s Empire State manufacturing index at a positive 18.7 from 10.7 is the strongest in twelve months, and the third healthy number in four months, though with November 2024 strength at 20.7 not having persisted we would treat the latest strength with a degree of caution.
Canada October CPI - BoC core rates mostly slower, but still running above target
November 17, 2025 2:06 PM UTC
October Canadian CPI has slowed to 2.2% yr/yr from 2.4% in September, though excluding gasoline the yr/yr increase was 2.6% in each month. The BoC’s core rates were however mostly slower, CPI-Median at 2.9% from 3.1%, CPI-Trim at 3.0% from 3.1%, though CPI-Common was unchanged at 2.7%. Year ago st
November 14, 2025
Preview: Due November 17 - Canada October CPI - Slower if still above target
November 14, 2025 7:15 PM UTC
We expect October’s Canadian CPI to slip to 2.2% yr/yr from 2.4% in September, though this will remain above August’s 1.9% and a Bank of Canada forecast for Q4 of 2.0%. We expect modest slippage in the Bank of Canada’s core rates too, though they will remain above the 2.0% target.
Slowest Rate of Growth for Russia Since Q1 2023: 0.6% y/y in Q3 2025
November 14, 2025 6:06 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Ministry of Economic Development’s preliminary figures, Russia's GDP expanded by a moderate 0.6% y/y in Q3, marking the slowest rate of growth since Q1 2023 showing the economic slowdown in Russia is more evident now. We think Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) previous agg
Russia’s Inflation Softened to 7.7% y/y in October
November 14, 2025 5:00 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As expected, Russian inflation continued its decreasing pattern in October and edged down to 7.7% thanks to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening, and relative resilience of RUB particularly after July. Despite fall in inflation; we think the inflation will continue
November 11, 2025
U.S. October NFIB survey - Weaker but far from weak
November 11, 2025 1:33 PM UTC
October’s NFIB index of Small Business Optimism at 98.2 from 98.8 has seen a second straight decline, possibly influenced by the government shutdown which looks close to being resolved. The index is still well above pre-election levels and above April’s 95.8 when tariff alarm was at its peak.
November 10, 2025
Preview: Due November 21 - U.S. November S and P PMIs - Modest corrections lower, still healthy
November 10, 2025 2:27 PM UTC
We expect November’s S and P PMIs to both see modest slippage, manufacturing to 52.0 from 52.5 and services to 54.5 from 54.8 but these will be more corrections from October improvements than any suggestion of underlying weakness. The levels will remain healthy.
Preview: Due November 20 - U.S. October Existing Home Sales - Responding to lower mortgage rates
November 10, 2025 1:52 PM UTC
We expect October existing home sales to increase by 1.0% to 4.10m, extending a 1.5% rise in September to reach the highest level since February, as the housing market gets support from lower mortgage rates as Fed easing resumes.
November 07, 2025
U.S. November Preliminary Michigan CSI - Weak, possibly on shutdown or labor market worries
November 7, 2025 3:25 PM UTC
November’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 50.3 has seen a significant dip from 53.6 in October to reach its lowest level since June 2022. Current conditions led the slowing, perhaps due to the government shutdown or weakening in the labor market. Inflation expectations are mixed but within the recent
Canada October Employment - Second straight strong rise reinforces expectations for steady BoC policy
November 7, 2025 2:11 PM UTC
Canada’s October employment report provides a second straight strong increase, by 66.6k, and while the series is volatile and the two strong months follow two weak months, the data suggests underlying trend has not turned negative and that the Canadian economy may be regaining momentum. Unemployme
November 06, 2025
Preview: Due November 17 - Canada October CPI - Slower if still above target
November 6, 2025 8:13 PM UTC
We expect October’s Canadian CPI to slip to 2.2% yr/yr from 2.4% in September, though this will remain above August’s 1.9% and a Bank of Canada forecast for Q4 of 2.0%. We expect modest slippage in the Bank of Canada’s core rates too, though they will remain above the 2.0% target.
Preview: Due November 7 - Canada October Employment - Trend near flat despite volatility
November 6, 2025 3:04 PM UTC
Canadian employment data has been volatile in recent months, but underlying trend looks fairly flat, consistent with weak but marginally positive GDP growth. We expect October to see a decline of 5k after a strong 60.4k increase in September with unemployment unchanged at 7.1%.
Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in October Likely Hitting Below 8.0% y/y
November 6, 2025 2:39 PM UTC
Bottom Line: We expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in October thanks to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening coupled with softening food prices and decreasing core inflation. October inflation figures will be announced on November 14, and we foresee Yr/Y
Some evidence of a subdued US labor market picture in October
November 6, 2025 2:02 PM UTC
While October’s non-farm payroll will not be released as scheduled tomorrow with September’s still absent, we are seeing some labor market signals today. A non-farm payroll estimate from Reveilo Labs shows payrolls down by 9.1k in October after a 33k rise in September (revised down from 60.1k).
November 05, 2025
U.S. October ISM Services - Bounce led by new orders, prices remain firm
November 5, 2025 3:23 PM UTC
October’s ISM services index is not as strong as the S and P Services PMI which was revised to a still firm 54.8 from 55.2, though at 52.4 is still the strongest since February and up from a neutral 50.0 in September.
U.S. October ADP Employment keeps trend marginally positive, if subdued
November 5, 2025 1:40 PM UTC
ADP’s October estimate of employment is slightly stronger than expected with a 42k increase, more than fully reversing September’s 29k decline (revised from -32k) to suggest that underlying trend in employment growth is still marginally positive, if unimpressive.
November 04, 2025
Preview: U.S. October CPI - An important number that may never be seen
November 4, 2025 3:59 PM UTC
October US CPI, while scheduled on November 13, may never be released even if the government shutdown is resolved, given lack of data collection during the month of October. However what the number would have been does matter. Our forecast is for a 0.2% increase overall, with a 0.3% rise ex food a
Preview: Due November 5 - U.S. October ADP Employment - Correction from September decline
November 4, 2025 1:54 PM UTC
We expect a rise of 30k in October’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth. Weekly data released by ADP is suggesting a modest rise. This would largely reverse a 32k decline seen in September suggesting the labor market maintains a picture of limited hiring and limited layoffs.
November 03, 2025
U.S. October ISM Manufacturing - Still slightly negative, prices paid slowing
November 3, 2025 6:30 PM UTC
October’s ISM manufacturing index of 48.7 from 49.1 is weaker than S and P manufacturing PMI and the bulk of the reginal surveys had implied, and keeps the index is a tight range marginally short of neutral. Some of the tariff impact is fading, with prices paid and inventories slowing.
Preview: Due November 7 - Canada October Employment - Trend near flat despite volatility
November 3, 2025 3:57 PM UTC
Canadian employment data has been volatile in recent months, but underlying trend looks fairly flat, consistent with weak but marginally positive GDP growth. We expect October to see a decline of 5k after a strong 60.4k increase in September with unemployment unchanged at 7.1%.
Inflation Slightly Edged Down in October: But MoM Stood High at 2.5%
November 3, 2025 10:50 AM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced October inflation figures on November 3. Turkiye’s y/y inflation moderately softened to around 32.9% in October from 33.3% in September while upside-tilted inflation risks continued limiting the downward trend during the ongoing disinfla
October 31, 2025
Preview: Due November 3 - U.S. October ISM Manufacturing - Firmer but still short of neutral
October 31, 2025 1:53 PM UTC
We expect October’s ISM manufacturing index to see a third straight increase to 49.5, from 49.1 in September, reaching its highest level since February, if still marginally below the neutral level of 50.
Canada August GDP - Weak but Q3 looking in line with BoC forecast
October 31, 2025 12:53 PM UTC
August Canadian GDP with a 0.3% decline is an unusually large miss from the preliminary estimate for unchanged, though July was revised up to a 0.3% increase from 0.2%. September’s preliminary estimate is for a rise of 0.1%, only partially correcting August’s decline.
October 30, 2025
Preview: Due October 31 - Canada August GDP - A flat month to follow the first rise in four months
October 30, 2025 12:24 PM UTC
We expect August Canadian GDP to be unchanged after a 0.2% July increase that followed three straight monthly declines in Q2. If September is also unchanged that would imply a modest annualized gain of around 0.7% in Q3 after a negative Q2. The Bank of Canada forecast Q3 GDP at 0.5% annualized.
October 29, 2025
U.S. September Pending Home Sales - Pause after August bounce
October 29, 2025 2:25 PM UTC
Pending home sales are unchanged in September, underperforming market expectations. Most housing sector indicators have been picking up in recent months. With the flat September following a 4.2% rise in August, pending home sales appear to be doing so too.
October 28, 2025
Turkiye Inflation Preview: Inflation will Slightly Soften in October Despite Risks Dominate
October 28, 2025 4:43 PM UTC
Bottom line: After hitting 33.3% annually in September, we expect Turkiye’s inflation will likely soften moderately to around 32.5% in October while upside-tilted inflation risks limiting the downward trend during the ongoing disinflationary process. September inflation suggested that the pace o
Preview: Due November 3 - U.S. October ISM Manufacturing - Firmer but still short of neutral
October 28, 2025 2:55 PM UTC
We expect October’s ISM manufacturing index to see a third straight increase to 49.5, from 49.1 in September, reaching its highest level since February, if still marginally below the neutral level of 50.
U.S. October Consumer Confidence remains broadly stable if subdued
October 28, 2025 2:16 PM UTC
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index at 94.6 in October is slightly stronger than expected and down from 95.6 in September only because September was revised up from 94.2. Labor market conditions are slightly improved and inflation expectations slightly higher.
October 24, 2025
Preview: Due November 5 - U.S. October ADP Employment - Correction from September decline
October 24, 2025 7:25 PM UTC
We expect a rise of 30k in October’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth. This would largely reverse a 32k decline seen in September suggesting the labor market maintains a picture of limited hiring and limited layoffs.
U.S. October S&P PMIs - Positive signal more reliable for ISM manufacturing than ISM services
October 24, 2025 2:01 PM UTC
October’s preliminary S and P PMIs are unexpectedly stronger, manufacturing marginally at 52.2 from 52.0 and services significantly at 55.2 from 54.2, The services index may be getting support from Fed easing and may not be a reliable guide to ISM services data.