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February 16, 2026
Preview: Due February 17 - Canada January CPI - Little change from December but some underlying slowing
February 16, 2026 2:38 PM UTC
We expect January Canadian CPI to be unchanged at 2.4% yr/yr, with both December and January at 2.36% before rounding). We expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be on balance softer, with CPI-Trim and CPI-Common both slowing, but CPI-Median stabilizing after a sharper fall in December.
February 13, 2026
VAT Hike, Stubborn Food and Services Prices Pushed Russia’s Inflation to 6.0% y/y in January
February 13, 2026 5:08 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After easing to 5.6% y/y in December, Russia’s inflation edged up to 6.0% y/y in January due to VAT hike and stubborn food and services prices, the State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said. Despite Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced that the inflation forecast for 2026 has been
U.S. January CPI - Yr/yr ex food and energy pace slowest since March 2021
February 13, 2026 2:18 PM UTC
January CPI is slightly lower than expected at 0.2% overall though the ex food and energy rate at 0.3% is on consensus, with the core rate almost spot on 0.3% even before rounding. Given a strong year ago rise, yr/yr growth slowed, overall to 2.4% from 2.7% and the core to 2.5% from 2.6%, the latter
February 12, 2026
Preview: Due February 20 - U.S. Q4 GDP - GDP and Core PCE Prices both seen at 2.6%
February 12, 2026 4:48 PM UTC
We expect a 2.6% annualized increase in Q4 GDP, well above a flat forecast we had entering the quarter, but off a peak estimate of 3.6%, with weaker November trade and December retail sales data having trimmed the forecast. December trade data, due on February 19, remains a significant source of unc
U.S. January Existing Home Sales - Sharp fall was signaled by pending home sales
February 12, 2026 3:17 PM UTC
January existing home sales are well below expectations with a fall of 8.4% to 3.91m, the lowest level since September 2024. Bad weather may have played a part but given that pending home sales fell by 9.3% in December, weather is unlikely to be the whole story.
U.S. Initial Claims remain inflated by weather, but February payroll likely to be weaker than January's
February 12, 2026 1:48 PM UTC
Initial claims at 227k are down from 232k but still higher than expected and higher than the seven preceding weeks. We suspect weather is playing a part in the recent upturn in initial claims, though the data suggests that February’s payroll will not be as strong as January’s.
Preview: Due February 13 - U.S. January CPI - A stronger month but slower yr/yr
February 12, 2026 1:13 PM UTC
We expect a 0.2% increase in January’s CPI, with a 0.3% rise ex food and energy, though risks are to the upside with our forecasts before rounding being for gains of 0.24% overall and 0.34% ex food and energy. The latter would be the strongest since August.
February 11, 2026
Preview: Due February 18 - U.S. January Industrial Production - Positive signals, but risks from weather
February 11, 2026 4:16 PM UTC
We expect a 0.5% increase in January industrial production, with ISM manufacturing and manufacturing payrolls suggesting stronger data, though there is some downside risk from bad weather late in the month.
Preview: Due February 12 - U.S. January Existing Home Sales - Reversing a strong December gain
February 11, 2026 3:35 PM UTC
We expect January existing home sales to fall by 5.3% to 4.12m, more than fully erasing a 5.1% December increase. Pending home sales are signaling a sharp decline and bad weather late in the month is a further downside risk.
U.S. January Employment - Stronger across the board, will keep Fed in no hurry to ease
February 11, 2026 2:21 PM UTC
January’s non-non-farm payroll at 130k is significantly stronger than expected and even more so in the private sector at 172k. An above trend 0.4% rise in average hourly earnings, a rise in the workweek to 34.3 from 34.2 hours and a fall in unemployment to 4.3% from 4.4% leave the data as stronger
February 10, 2026
Preview: Due February 19 - U.S. December Trade Balance - Despite volatility, 2025 will average similar to 2024
February 10, 2026 7:16 PM UTC
We expect a December trade deficit of $59.5bn, which would be the widest since August and up moderately from November’s $56.8bn. It would be up sharply from October’s $29.2bn which was the lowest since June 2009 but heavily influenced by temporary factors. The data may bring some fine tuning to
Preview: Due February 20 - U.S. December Personal Income and Spending - Firmer prices matching income and spending
February 10, 2026 4:02 PM UTC
December’s personal income and spending report may be overshadowed by Q4 GDP data released at the same time, but is likely to see a strong core PCE price index increase of 0.4%, the highest since February. We expect personal income to rise by 0.3%, underperforming a 0.4% rise in spending, with bot
Preview: Due February 11 - U.S. January Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Above trend but with higher unemployment
February 10, 2026 2:30 PM UTC
We expect January’s non-farm payroll to rise by 85k overall and by 80k in the private sector, which would be on the firm side of trend and could be even more so after what could be substantial negative historical revisions. However, we expect unemployment to rise to 4.5% from 4.4%. We expect avera
U.S. December Retail Sales and Q4 Employment Cost Index show fading momentum
February 10, 2026 2:03 PM UTC
December retail sales are weaker than expected, unchanged overall, ex autos and ex autos and gasoline. This could be a sign of consumer spending losing momentum in response to real disposable income coming in near flat in both Q3 and probably Q4, given limited employment growth and resilient inflati
February 09, 2026
Preview: Due February 20 - U.S. February S and P PMIs - Manufacturing significantly stronger, Services marginally so
February 9, 2026 6:32 PM UTC
We expect improvement in February’s S and P PMIs, more significantly in manufacturing, to 53.5 from 52.4, with services seeing only a modest increase to 53.0 from 52.7.
Preview: Due February 18 - U.S. December Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to slip, but ex transport trend is positive
February 9, 2026 4:26 PM UTC
We expect December durable goods orders to fall by 5.0% after a 5.3% increase in November, the reversal led by aircraft after a strong November increase. Ex transport we expect a 0.4% increase, matching the gain in November.
Preview: Due February 10 - U.S. December Retail Sales - Maintaining momentum
February 9, 2026 2:18 PM UTC
We expect retail sales to maintain momentum in December, rising by 0.6% overall and by 0.5% ex auto, both matching their November increases. Ex autos and gasoline we expect a 0.5% increase, a modest pick-up from two straight gains of 0.4%.
February 06, 2026
Russian Economy Grew by 1% in 2025
February 6, 2026 6:25 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to official announcement, Russian economy grew by 1.0% in 2025. President Putin said this slowdown was expected and intentional as part of measures aimed at curbing inflation. We think Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) previous aggressive monetary tightening coupled with sancti
Canada January Employment - Ontario explains employment and labor force slippage
February 6, 2026 2:02 PM UTC
Canada has delivered a mixed employment report for January, with a 24.8k decline in employment led by manufacturing and the province of Ontario, but a decline in the unemployment rate to 6.5% from 6.8%. Weather may have played a part in the weakness in Ontario, though details are mixed leaving the d
February 05, 2026
Preview: Due February 27 - Canada Q4/December GDP - A modest correction from a surprisingly strong Q3
February 5, 2026 5:22 PM UTC
We expect Q4 Canadian GDP to decline by 0.3% annualized, marginally softer than an unchanged estimate made by the Bank of Canada with January’s Monetary Policy report. This would be consistent with December GDP rising by 0.1% as projected with November’s data.
U.S. December JOLTS report - Third straight decline in openings
February 5, 2026 3:20 PM UTC
December’s JOLTS report has delivered a 386k decline in job openings to 6.542m, which is the weakest level since September 2020 during the pandemic. The series is a volatile one but the decline is the third straight, the first time this has happened since July 2023.
Preview: Due February 6 - Canada January Employment - A second straight subdued month after three strong ones
February 5, 2026 2:05 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 15k in January, a second straight moderate increase following December’s 8.2k that followed three straight strong gains averaging close to 60k. We expect unemployment to remain at December’s rate of 6.8%, but to fall before rounding.
U.S. Initial Claims rise may be weather-related, but layoff announcements higher in January
February 5, 2026 1:44 PM UTC
Initial claims at 231 from 209k are higher than expected and the highest since December 6. Bad weather may have contributed to the increase, The latest week comes two weeks after January’s non-farm payroll was surveyed.
February 04, 2026
Preview: Due February 27 - U.S. January PPI - Slower than a strong December, but trend still quite firm
February 4, 2026 7:03 PM UTC
We expect PPI to rise by a slower 0.2% in January both overall and ex food and energy, after strong respective gains of 0.5% and 0.7% in December. The slowing will be largely in trade, though ex food, energy and trade we expect a rise of 0.3%, slightly slower than December’s 0.4%.
Preview: Due February 13 (revised date) - U.S. January CPI - A stronger month but slower yr/yr
February 4, 2026 6:31 PM UTC
We expect a 0.2% increase in January’s CPI, with a 0.3% rise ex food and energy, though risks are to the upside with our forecasts before rounding being for gains of 0.24% overall and 0.34% ex food and energy. The latter would be the strongest since August.
Preview: Due February 11 (revised date) - U.S. January Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Above trend but with higher unemployment
February 4, 2026 5:46 PM UTC
We expect January’s non-farm payroll to rise by 85k overall and by 80k in the private sector, which would be on the firm side of trend and could be even more so after what could be substantial negative historical revisions. However, we expect unemployment to rise to 4.5% from 4.4%. We expect avera
Preview: Due February 10 - U.S. December Retail Sales - Maintaining momentum
February 4, 2026 5:15 PM UTC
We expect retail sales to maintain momentum in December, rising by 0.6% overall and by 0.5% ex auto, both matching their November increases. Ex autos and gasoline we expect a 0.5% increase, a modest pick-up from two straight gains of 0.4%.
U.S. January ADP Employment - A weaker month which may underperform payrolls
February 4, 2026 1:54 PM UTC
January’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 22k falls short of expectations. We still see scope for non-farm payrolls to outperform the ADP data given very low initial claims and positive seasonal adjustments, though a recent tendency for ADP data to underperform payrolls is no long
Preview: Due February 12 - U.S. January Existing Home Sales - Reversing a strong December gain
February 4, 2026 12:47 PM UTC
We expect January existing home sales to fall by 5.3% to 4.12m, more than fully erasing a 5.1% December increase. Pending home sales are signaling a sharp decline and bad weather late in the month is a further downside risk.
February 03, 2026
Preview: Due February 17 - Canada January CPI - Little change from December but some underlying slowing
February 3, 2026 7:06 PM UTC
We expect January Canadian CPI to be unchanged at 2.4% yr/yr, with both December and January at 2.36% before rounding). We expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be on balance softer, with CPI-Trim and CPI-Common both slowing, but CPI-Median stabilizing after a sharper fall in December.
Preview: Due February 20 - U.S. November and December New Home Sales - Improvement in trend to continue
February 3, 2026 5:52 PM UTC
November and December new home sales data will be released on February 20. We expect moderate continuations of a recent improvement in trend, with November rising by 1.1% to 745k and December rising by 1.3% to 755k. This would be the highest level since February 2022.
Preview: Due February 18 - U.S. November and December Housing Starts and Permits - Moderately positive picture
February 3, 2026 3:52 PM UTC
Housing starts and permits data for both November and December are due on February 18. For starts we expect a rise of 8.3% in November to 1350k to follow a decline of 4.6% in October, with a more moderate 1.5% increase to 1370k in December. For permits we expect moderate gains of 0.6% in November, t
Preview: Due February 4 - U.S. January ISM Services - A partial correction from December's bounce
February 3, 2026 1:35 PM UTC
We expect January’s ISM services index to correct lower to 53.0 after a surprisingly strong December index of 54.4 that has since been revised down to 53.8 with the annual seasonal adjustment revisions. The data still contrasts a slower S and P services PMI of 52.5 in December. January’s S and P
Preview: Due February 4 - U.S. January ADP Employment - To slow, and underperform payrolls
February 3, 2026 1:11 PM UTC
We expect a 30k increase in January’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be a slowing from 41k in December. We expect the ADP report to significantly underperform January’s non-farm payroll, where we expect a rise of 80k in the private sector, and 85k overall. Due to the gov
Turkiye Inflation Review: Inflation Softened to 30.7% in January
February 3, 2026 11:12 AM UTC
Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced January inflation on February 3. Turkiye’s annual inflation edged down moderately to 30.5% in January while food, housing and education prices drove the surge. Our average inflation forecast stand at 26.5% for 2026 since inflation expec
February 02, 2026
Preview: Due February 10 (government shutdown may delay) - U.S. Q4 Employment Cost Index - Maintaining trend
February 2, 2026 8:03 PM UTC
We look for the Q4 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.9%, slightly firmer than the 0.8% seen in Q3 but matching the gains of Q1 and Q2, as well as Q4 2024.
Preview: Due February 11 (government shutdown may delay) - U.S. January CPI - A stronger month but slower yr/yr
February 2, 2026 7:20 PM UTC
We expect a 0.2% increase in January’s CPI, with a 0.3% rise ex food and energy, though risks are to the upside with our forecasts before rounding being for gains of 0.24% overall and 0.34% ex food and energy. The latter would be the strongest since August.
U.S. January ISM Manufacturing - Broad based improvement
February 2, 2026 3:18 PM UTC
January’s ISM manufacturing index of 52.6 is up significantly from 47.9 in December and the highest since August 2022. While caution should be seen on one month’s data, the improvement is broad based and backed by several reginal surveys.
January 30, 2026
Preview: Due February 2 - U.S. January ISM Manufacturing - Improved if still short of neutral
January 30, 2026 5:09 PM UTC
We expect January’s ISM manufacturing index to pick up to 49.0 from 47.9, still below neutral but the strongest since September after falling to its lowest level since October 2024 in December.
Canada November GDP disappoints but modest rise seen in December
January 30, 2026 2:18 PM UTC
November Canadian GDP was unchanged, below a 0.1% estimate made when October’s 0.3% decline was released. The preliminary estimate for December is for a 0.1% increase. Rebounds from November weakness in manufacturing and wholesale are seen lifting December data.
U.S. December PPI - Trade rebounds, tariff lift persists
January 30, 2026 1:56 PM UTC
December PPI has surprised on the upside with a 0.5% increase, 0.7% ex food and energy, with even the ex food, energy and trade increase at 0;4% being on the firm side of expectations. Strength was broad based outside food and energy, including at the intermediate level.
January 29, 2026
U.S. Q4 GDP now seen at 3.1% rather than 3.6% after wider November trade deficit
January 29, 2026 6:58 PM UTC
Following today’s wider trade deficit for October, the Atlanta Fed has revised its Q4 GDP estimate down to 4.24% from 5.4%. We have revised our estimate to 3.1% from 3.6%. We are assuming a December deficit only marginally narrower than November’s, and significantly wider than October’s.
Preview: Due February 4 - U.S. January ADP Employment - To slow, and underperform payrolls
January 29, 2026 4:58 PM UTC
We expect a 30k increase in January’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be a slowing from 41k in December. We expect the ADP report to significantly underperform January’s non-farm payroll, where we expect a rise of 80k in the private sector, and 85k overall.
Preview: Due February 6 - U.S. January Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Above trend but with higher unemployment
January 29, 2026 4:23 PM UTC
We expect January’s non-farm payroll to rise by 85k overall and by 80k in the private sector, which would be on the firm side of trend and could be even more so after what could be substantial negative historical revisions. However, we expect unemployment to rise to 4.5% from 4.4%. We expect avera
Preview: Due January 30 - Canada November GDP - Partial reversal of October's dip
January 29, 2026 2:40 PM UTC
We expect November Canadian GDP to increase by 0.1% in line with a preliminary estimate made with October’s report, when a 0.3% decline was reported. We expect the preliminary estimate for December will also show a modest increase.
Preview: Due January 30 - U.S. December PPI - Rebound in trade to bring an above trend month
January 29, 2026 2:36 PM UTC
Despite signs in the CPI that inflationary pressure has slowed in Q4, we expect December PPI to show above trend gains of 0.4% both overall and ex food and energy. Ex food energy and trade however we expect a moderate gain of 0.2%, which would match November’s outcome in that series.