Data
View:
July 06, 2026
Preview: Due July 7 - U.S. May Trade Balance - Advance goods data shows deficit up sharply
July 6, 2026 5:52 PM UTC
We expect a May trade deficit of $78.7bn, up from $55.9bn in April and the widest deficit since a pre-tariff record of $133.0bn in March 2025. We expect a 3.4% decline in exports after four straight gains and a 3.1% increase in imports, which would be a fourth straight gain.
Preview: Due July 15 - U.S. June PPI - Some fading from recent strength
July 6, 2026 9:05 AM UTC
We expect an unchanged June PPI, a significant slowing from two straight gains of 1.1% as energy corrects from recent strength and other inflationary stimuli from the conflict in the Middle East fade. We expect a 0.4% rise ex food and energy, matching May’s outcome, and also a 0.4% increase ex foo
July 02, 2026
Preview: Due July 20 - Canada June CPI - Energy to correct lower but BoC core rates seen mostly stable
July 2, 2026 7:58 PM UTC
We expect June Canadian CPI to correct lower to 3.0% yr/yr from May’s 3.2% which was the highest since December 2023, with a slowing to 2.98% from 3.23% before rounding. The Bank of Canada’s core rates however are likely to remain mostly stable with CPI-Median at 2.1% and CPI-Trim at 2.0%, both
Preview: Due July 6 - U.S. June ISM Services - Sustaining a May improvement
July 2, 2026 5:50 PM UTC
We expect an unchanged June ISM services index of 54.5, sustaining a May pick up from April’s 53.6. Gasoline prices moving off their highs and the World Cup may both provide some support, preventing a correction from May’s improvement. May’s bounce may have been assisted by seasonal adjustment
Preview: Due July 16 - U.S. June Retail Sales - Softer on gasoline, only modest underlying slowing
July 2, 2026 5:33 PM UTC
We expect June retail sales to fall by 0.2% overall and 0.4% ex autos, though with a 0.2% rise ex auto and gasoline. Even the latter would be the slowest gain since a flat December 2025.
Preview: Due July 17 - U.S. June Industrial Production - Two straight subdued months after a strong April
July 2, 2026 3:51 PM UTC
We expect an unchanged June industrial production outcome with a marginal 0.1% increase in manufacturing. This will be a second straight subdued month but still leaving a healthy Q2 given a strong increase in April.
Preview: Due July 17 - U.S. June Housing Starts and Permits - Multiple starts to bounce, but trend is slowing
July 2, 2026 3:01 PM UTC
We look for June housing starts to bounce by 13.0% to 1.33m to correct a sharp 15.4% plunge seen in May, with most of the move again due to the volatile multiples component. We expect permits to suggest a modestly negative underlying trend, falling by 2.1% to 1.38m.
U.S. June Employment - Upside May surprise offset, but unemployment falls on lower labor force
July 2, 2026 1:20 PM UTC
June’s non-farm payroll is weaker than expected with a 57k increase, 49k private, with downward revisions to April and May. The slowing is consistent with an upturn in the initial and continued claims trends, though both were almost unchanged (-1k to 215k and +2k to 1.814m respectively) in the l
U.S. June Employment - Upside May surprise offset, but unemployment falls on lower labor force
July 2, 2026 1:12 PM UTC
June’s non-farm payroll is weaker than expected with a 57k increase, 49k private, with downward revisions to April and May. The slowing is consistent with an upturn in the initial and continued claims trends, though both were almost unchanged (-1k to 215k and +2k to 1.814m respectively) in the l
July 01, 2026
Preview: Due July 14 - U.S. June CPI - Energy to correct lower, World Cup to support core
July 1, 2026 3:18 PM UTC
We expect June CPI to be unchanged overall as energy corrects from three straight strong gains while the core rate ex food and energy sees a slightly firmer 0.3% increase. Before rounding we expect respective outcomes of -0.02% and up 0.26%, with the World Cup having just enough impact to nudge the
U.S. June ISM Manufacturing - Some easing in inflationary pressures
July 1, 2026 2:21 PM UTC
June’s ISM manufacturing index of 53.3 is down from 54.0 in May but still above the 52.7 seen in both March and April. Detail shows some easing of inflationary pressure. Perhaps more notable is an unusually large downward revision to the S and P manufacturing PMI, to 53.9 from 55.7, released 15 mi
Preview: Due July 2 - U.S. June Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - World Cup boost versus underlying slowing
July 1, 2026 12:47 PM UTC
We expect June’s non-farm payroll to rise by 115k overall and by 125k in the private sector, the former a slowing from 172k in May but the latter marginally stronger than May’s 120k increase. We expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3% for a fourth straight month and an in line with trend
U.S. June ADP Employment - Slightly slower, far from weak
July 1, 2026 12:37 PM UTC
June’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 98k is on the weak side of expectations and similarly below consensus forecasts for private sector payrolls tomorrow. It is possible that payrolls could outperform ADP data if payrolls capture more temporary jobs created by the World Cup. Our
June 30, 2026
U.S. May JOLTS report shows job openings trending higher but June Consumer Confidence shows pessimism on jobs
June 30, 2026 2:30 PM UTC
May’s JOLTS report shows a marginal 9k increase in job openings, but after a strong 698k increase in April this is stronger than expected and there has been a clear pick up in trend in recent months. The 3-month average of 224k is the highest since March 2022 as is the 6-month average of 125k.
Preview: Due July 1 - U.S. June ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data remains healthy
June 30, 2026 1:06 PM UTC
We expect a 125k increase in June’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which matches our forecast for private sector non-farm payrolls in June. It is also consistent with a 30.75k four week average for the ADP weekly report in the weeks to June 6, the week before monthly data was surveyed
Canada April GDP - Set for a healthy Q2
June 30, 2026 12:53 PM UTC
April Canadian GDP increased by 0.5%, even stronger than a preliminary estimate for 0.4% made with March data. The data comes after a 0.1% decline in March and suggests the economy is regaining momentum in Q2. The preliminary estimate for May is for a 0.1% increase.
June 29, 2026
Preview: Due July 15 - U.S. June PPI - Some fading from recent strength
June 29, 2026 3:16 PM UTC
We expect an unchanged June PPI, a significant slowing from two straight gains of 1.1% as energy corrects from recent strength and other inflationary stimuli from the conflict in the Middle East fade. We expect a 0.4% rise ex food and energy, matching May’s outcome, and also a 0.4% increase ex foo
Preview: Due June 30 - Canada April GDP - Growth resuming
June 29, 2026 12:10 PM UTC
We expect April GDP to increase by 0.3%, not quite as strong as a 0.4% estimate given with March’s report. After a 0.1% decline in March this would still leave quite a subdued picture though Q2 looks likely to see a return to growth after marginal declines seen in both Q4 2025 and Q1 2026.
June 26, 2026
Economic Data and Events Week Ahead Jun 29 - Jul 3
June 26, 2026 2:45 PM UTC
The week ahead has plenty of notable events, spanning Eurozone inflation on one side, to US payrolls on the other, and with central bank speakers all round - the ECB Sintra conference at the start of the week hears from Lagarde and then a panel that includes Warsh and Bailey.
Preview: Due July 7 - U.S. May Trade Balance - Advance goods data shows deficit up sharply
June 26, 2026 1:52 PM UTC
We expect a May trade deficit of $78.7bn, up from $55.9bn in April and the widest deficit since a pre-tariff record of $133.0bn in March 2025. We expect a 3.4% decline in exports after four straight gains and a 3.1% increase in imports, which would be a fourth straight gain.
U.S. May Advance Goods Trade - Exports slip, imports remain strong, negative for GDP
June 26, 2026 12:50 PM UTC
May’s advance goods US trade deficit of $105.8bn is a sharp deterioration from April’s $83.0bn and the widest deficit since a pre-tariff record of $158.7bn seen in March 2025. Exports plunged by 5.4% after four straight solid gains while imports increased by 3.6%, this the fourth straight solid
Turkiye Inflation Preview: CPI is Expected to Slightly Increase in June
June 26, 2026 12:37 PM UTC
Bottom line: After standing at 32.6% annually in May, we expect consumer price index (CPI) will slightly surge to around 32.8%-33.0% y/y in June due to secondary impacts of the energy price shocks stemming from Middle East tensions. June print will be announced by Turkish Statistical Institute (TU
June 25, 2026
U.S. Personal Income and Spending, GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and Initial Claims - Mostly firm but consumer spending revised lower
June 25, 2026 1:40 PM UTC
The latest US data is mostly strong, with an upward revision to Q1 GDP, stronger than expected May personal income and spending, still firm core PCE prices, lower initial claims and strength in May durable goods orders outside a fall in transport. However the Q1 GDP revision was mixed, with a signif
Preview: Due June 26 - U.S. May Advance Goods Trade Balance - Exports, Imports and Deficit to rise
June 25, 2026 12:09 PM UTC
We expect an advance May goods trade deficit of $87.8bn, up from $83.0bn in April and the widest deficit since December. We expect exports and imports to both show strong gains, rising by 4.0% and 4.5% respectively. Even if exports and imports saw the same gain in percentage terms, the deficit would
Preview: Due July 2 - U.S. June Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - World Cup boost versus underlying slowing
June 25, 2026 7:12 AM UTC
We expect June’s non-farm payroll to rise by 115k overall and by 125k in the private sector, the former a slowing from 172k in May but the latter marginally stronger than May’s 120k increase. We expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3% for a fourth straight month and an in line with trend
June 24, 2026
Preview: Due July 9 - U.S. June Existing Home Sales - Pending home sales imply a rise
June 24, 2026 3:34 PM UTC
We expect June existing home sales to increase by 1.9% to 4.25m, which would be a third straight increase and the highest level since December 2025. This would be consistent with signals from May pending home sales, but other housing signals are less positive.
Preview: Due July 1 - U.S. June ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data remains healthy
June 24, 2026 2:51 PM UTC
We expect a 125k increase in June’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which matches our forecast for private sector non-farm payrolls in June. It is also consistent with a 30.75k four week average for the ADP weekly report in the weeks to June 6, the week before monthly data was surveyed
U.S. May New Home Sales - Second straight decline suggests trend is weakening
June 24, 2026 2:21 PM UTC
May new home sales with a 7.3% decline to 580k have extended a 5.7% decline in April. Housing indicators are mixed overall but new home sales appear to have broken out of what had been a fairly stable range to the downside.
Preview: Due June 25 - U.S. May Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to correct lower, but ex transport trend positive
June 24, 2026 1:37 PM UTC
We expect May durable goods orders to fall by 4.0% overall after a rise of 8.0% in April, the moves led by volatility in aircraft. Ex transport we expect an increase of 0.8%, slightly slower than three straight gains in excess of 1.0%, but maintaining a positive trend.
Preview: Due June 25 - U.S. May Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform CPI, Savings to fall further
June 24, 2026 1:24 PM UTC
We expect May’s core PCE price index to rise by 0.3%, though probably on the low side of 0.3% before rounding, with overall PCE prices up by 0.4%. We expect a 0.6% increase in personal spending to outperform a 0.3% rise in personal income, extending a recent sharp decline in savings.
US Q1 Current Account - Deficit increases on lower investment income surplus
June 24, 2026 1:03 PM UTC
The Q1 current account deficit of $226.8bn is wider than expected, and up from $221.1bn in Q4, with Q4’s deficit revised significantly higher from $190.7bn in the original Q4 release. This is the first increase in the deficit since the record pre-tariff deficit of $438.2bn in Q1 2025.
June 23, 2026
Preview: Due July 2 - U.S. June Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - World Cup boost versus underlying slowing
June 23, 2026 6:31 PM UTC
We expect June’s non-farm payroll to rise by 115k overall and by 125k in the private sector, the former a slowing from 172k in May but the latter marginally stronger than May’s 120k increase. We expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3% for a fourth straight month and an in line with trend
Preview: Due July 6 - U.S. June ISM Services - Sustaining a May improvement
June 23, 2026 3:38 PM UTC
We expect an unchanged June ISM services index of 54.5, sustaining a May pick up from April’s 53.6. Gasoline prices moving off their highs and the World Cup may both provide some support, preventing a correction from May’s improvement. May’s bounce may have been assisted by seasonal adjustment
Preview: Due June 24 - U.S. May New Home Sales - A correction higher though trend has slowed
June 23, 2026 12:01 PM UTC
We expect a May new home sales total of 640k, which would be an increase of 2.9% if April’s 6.2% decline to 622k sees no revisions. This would be consistent with trend having lost some momentum in early 2026, with movements in the preceding two years outside a 650-700k range having tended to be br
Preview: Due June 24 - U.S. Q1 Current Account - Deficit showing signs of stabilizing
June 23, 2026 11:58 AM UTC
We expect a Q1 US current account deficit of $206.8bn, up from $190.7bn in Q4 which would be the first increase in the deficit since the record pre-tariff deficit of $438.3bn in Q1 2025. The deterioration from Q4 could however be modest with trade data suggesting that Q4’s deficit will be revised
June 22, 2026
Preview: Due July 10 - Canada June Employment - World Cup to help sustain May bounce
June 22, 2026 6:59 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 25k in June, extending on a strong 87.8k increase in May with the World Cup likely to provide some support. We expect unemployment to slip to 6.5% from 6.6%, reaching its lowest level since January.
Preview: Due June 30 - Canada April GDP - Growth resuming
June 22, 2026 5:37 PM UTC
We expect April GDP to increase by 0.3%, not quite as strong as a 0.4% estimate given with March’s report. After a 0.1% decline in March this would still leave quite a subdued picture though Q2 looks likely to see a return to growth after marginal declines seen in both Q4 2025 and Q1 2026.
Canada May CPI - Upside suprise corrects April's downside surprise
June 22, 2026 12:57 PM UTC
May Canadian CPI with a rise to 3.2% yr/yr from 2.8% is stronger than expected, offsetting a clear downside surprise in April, though the Bank of Canada’s core rates are mostly stable and close to the BoC’s 2.0% target, so we do not believe these numbers will cause significant alarm at the BoC,
Preview: Due June 23 - U.S. June S&P PMIs - Manufacturing not quite as strong, marginal improvement in services
June 22, 2026 12:09 PM UTC
We expect a correction lower in June’s S and P manufacturing PMI to a still firm 54.5 from 55.3, but a modest improvement in the S and P services PMI to a still subdued 51.0, from 50.7 in May.
June 18, 2026
Preview: Due June 22 - Canada May CPI - A further lift from energy while core rates pause after a weak April
June 18, 2026 2:18 PM UTC
We expect May Canadian CPI to see a further acceleration to 3.0% yr/yr from 2.8% (to 3.04% from 2.82% before rounding) while the Bank of Canada’s core rates see little change following a notable slowing in April which took two of the three measures close to the BoC‘s 2.0% target.
Preview: Due June 23 - U.S. June S&P PMIs - Manufacturing not quite as strong, marginal improvement in services
June 18, 2026 1:01 PM UTC
We expect a correction lower in June’s S and P manufacturing PMI to a still firm 54.5 from 55.3, but a modest improvement in the S and P services PMI to a still subdued 51.0, from 50.7 in May.
U.S. Initial Claims, June Philly Fed - Slightly improved but some signs of fading momentum
June 18, 2026 12:54 PM UTC
Initial claims slipped to 226k from 230k while June’s Philly Fed manufacturing survey increased to 10.3 from -0.4, both in line with expectations, improved but not as strong as some recent releases.
Fuel and Transportation Costs Pushed South African Inflation to 4.5% in May
June 18, 2026 10:25 AM UTC
Bottom Line: South Africa’s annual inflation climbed to 4.5% in May driven by surging fuel and transport costs, according to StatsSA's announcement. The core inflation surged to 3.8% y/y in May from 3.6% in the previous month, marking the highest reading since October 2024. While we anticipate tha