Preview: Due January 7 - U.S. December ADP Employment - Weekly data suggests November's decline will reverse

January 2, 2026 2:44 PM UTC

Weekly ADP data, showing an average weekly job increase of 11.5k in the four weeks to December 6, suggests a rebound in the December ADP employment report from a negative November, we expect by 50k, which would more than fully reverse November’s 32k decline while leaving trend subdued. 

U.S. Q3 GDP: Better Than Expected, But

December 23, 2025 1:54 PM UTC

Q3 GDP came in better than expected due to a big net export contribution to growth.  Gross domestic purchases at 2.7% were more in line with expectations, with mixed performance in key expenditure sectors.  We see growth slowing in Q4, with net exports unlikely to repeat the Q3 outcome and consume

Preview: Due December 23 - U.S. October and November Industrial Production - Net marginally positive

December 22, 2025 3:08 PM UTC

The Fed will release October and November industrial production together, having received key input data from the non-farm payrolls. We expect a 0.1% decline in October to be followed by a 0.2% increase in November, with manufacturing up by 0.3% in November after a 0.1% decline in October.

Preview: Due December 23 - U.S. Q3 GDP - A second straight solid quarter though Q4 is likely to be slower

December 22, 2025 2:42 PM UTC

We now look for a 3.0% annualized increase in the delayed Q3 GDP release, lifted by some recent data. This would be a second straight solid quarter to follow a weak Q1, though Q4 is likely to be weaker, in  part due to the government shutdown that persisted through October and much of November.

Preview: Due December 23 - U.S. October Durable Goods Orders - Transport to slip, but ex transport trend positive

December 22, 2025 2:12 PM UTC

We expect October durable goods orders to decline by 2.0%, though ex transport we expect a sixth straight increase, by 0.4%.

Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in December

December 22, 2025 2:11 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After edging down to 6.6% in November, we expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in December owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. December inflation figures will be announced on December 29, and we forese

Preview: Due December 23 - Canada October GDP - Correcting from Q3 strength

December 22, 2025 2:03 PM UTC

We expect October Canadian GDP to fall by 0.3% in a correction from surprisingly strong Q3 data and in line with the preliminary estimate made with September’s data. 

December 18, 2025 8:46 PM UTC

We expect December’s non-farm payroll to rise by 75k both overall and in the private sector, up from 64k and 69k respectively in November. We expect unemployment to be unchanged at 4.6% and a modest 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings.

Preview: Due December 19 - U.S. November Existing Home Sales - Revival to continue

December 18, 2025 2:37 PM UTC

We expect November existing home sales to increase by 1.5% to 4.16m, which would be a third straight increase and the highest level since February, as the housing market gets support from lower mortgage rates as Fed easing resumes.

U.S. November CPI - Is the tariff impact fading?

December 18, 2025 2:10 PM UTC

November’s CPI is significantly lower than expected, at 2.7% yr/yr, 2.6% ex food and energy, compared with 3.0% for both series in September (October data will not be released). November’s core CPI index is up only 0.16% from September’s, implying an average rise of less than 0.1% per month ov

South Africa Inflation Moderately Softens to 3.5% y/y in November

December 17, 2025 5:08 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on December 17 that annual inflation softened moderately to 3.5% y/y in November from 3.6% the previous month, but food and restaurant prices remained worrisome. Despite inflation staying within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 1 pe

Preview: Due December 23 - U.S. October Durable Goods Orders - Transport to slip, but ex transport trend positive

December 17, 2025 2:14 PM UTC

We expect October durable goods orders to decline by 2.0%, though ex transport we expect a sixth straight increase, by 0.4%.

Preview: Due December 18 - U.S. November CPI - A two month change with October canceled

December 17, 2025 1:41 PM UTC

The labor market will not publish monthly changes for each month so it is the two monthly change that will be published, we expect 0.49% for overall CPI, assuming October at 0.16% and November at 0.33%, and the core rate up by 0.53% over the two months. Gasoline prices are likely to dip in October b

Preview: Due December 23 - Canada October GDP - Correcting from Q3 strength

December 16, 2025 5:09 PM UTC

We expect October Canadian GDP to fall by 0.3% in a correction from surprisingly strong Q3 data and in line with the preliminary estimate made with September’s data. 

Preview: Due December 23 - U.S. Q3 GDP - A second straight solid quarter though Q4 is likely to be slower

December 16, 2025 4:25 PM UTC

We now look for a 3.0% annualized increase in the delayed Q3 GDP release, lifted by some recent data. This would be a second straight solid quarter to follow a weak Q1, though Q4 is likely to be weaker, in  part due to the government shutdown that persisted through October and much of November.

U.S. December S&P PMIs - Less positive, particularly services

December 16, 2025 3:01 PM UTC

December’s preliminary S and P PMIs are both weaker and below consensus, manufacturing only marginally at 51.8 from 52.2 but services more significantly at 52.9 from 54.1. The composite fell to 53.0 from 54.2.

U.S. October and November Employment - Unemployment rising but economy maintains some momentum

December 16, 2025 2:22 PM UTC

November’s non-non-farm payroll at 64k does not fully erase a 105k decline in October but private payrolls at 69k in November and 52k in October maintain moderate growth, though unemployment at 4.6% in November is the highest since September 2021, and average hourly earnings growth is slowing. Oct

Preview: Due December 16 - U.S. December S and P PMIs - Only marginally lower, still healthy

December 15, 2025 3:51 PM UTC

We expect December’s S and P PMIs to both see very marginal slippage, manufacturing to 52.0 from 52.2 and services to 54.0 from 54.1. These will still leave the picture looking fairly healthy and there is little reason to expect a sharp fall in December, though we do see risks to the economy as le

Preview: Due December 16 - U.S. October/November Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Slow but still positive in the private sector

December 15, 2025 3:25 PM UTC

The Labor Department will release October and November non-farm payroll data on December 16. We expect November to see gains of 40k both overall and in the private sector. However we expect October to see a decline of 10k overall but a 55k increase in the private sector.

Canada November CPI - Underlying trend has slowed

December 15, 2025 1:48 PM UTC

November Canadian CPI at 2.2% has held steady at October’s pace, and is slightly weaker than expected. The Bank of Canada’s core are are on balance weaker, with CPI-Median and CPI-Trim falling to 2.8% from 3.0%, though CPI-Common (less important to the BoC) edged up to 2.8% from 2.7%.

December 15, 2025 1:16 PM UTC

We expect a 0.4% decline in October retail sales in September, with autos set to be the main negative after the expiry of a tax credit for electrical vehicle purchases. Elsewhere however we expect subdued data, with a 0.1% increase ex autos and a rise of 0.2% ex autos and gasoline.

Preview: Due December 15 - Canada November CPI - Slightly firmer but not on the key core rates

December 12, 2025 4:17 PM UTC

We expect November’s Canadian CPI to increase to 2.3% yr/yr from 2.2% in October, suggesting Q4 is likely to exceed a Bank of Canada forecast of 2.0% made in October. However, risk on the Bank of Canada’s core rates leans to the downside. 

U.S. Initial Claims rebound from holiday drop, September trade deficit falls on surge in gold exports

December 11, 2025 2:14 PM UTC

After a sharply below trend outcome last week of 192k (revised from 191k) in a week that included the Thanksgiving holiday and may have seen seasonal adjustment problems, initial claims have rebounded above trend to 236k. The 2-week average is 214k, slightly below the 218k seen two weeks ago and the

Exceeding Expectations: Russia Inflation Eased Fast to 6.6% y/y in November

December 11, 2025 8:15 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Russian inflation continued its decreasing pattern in November and edged down to 6.6% owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening, and relative resilience of RUB despite food and services prices continued to surge in November. We think the inflation will continue

December 9, 2025 5:01 PM UTC

The Labor Department will release October and November non-farm payroll data on December 16. We expect November to see gains of 40k both overall and in the private sector. However we expect October to see a decline of 10k overall but a 55k increase in the private sector.

U.S. November NFIB survey shows significant acceleration in selling prices

December 9, 2025 1:11 PM UTC

The most notable feature of November’s NFIB survey of Small Business Optimism was a sharp rise in the proportion reporting higher selling prices, to 34% from 21%, reaching the highest level since March 2023. Why such as sharp bounce has some this month is difficult to explain but it could be that

December 8, 2025 2:00 PM UTC

The labor market will not publish monthly changes for each month so it is the two monthly change that will be published, we expect 0.49% for overall CPI, assuming October at 0.16% and November at 0.33%, and the core rate up by 0.53% over the two months. Gasoline prices are likely to dip in October b

December 5, 2025 8:06 PM UTC

We expect a 0.4% decline in October retail sales in September, with autos set to be the main negative after the expiry of a tax credit for electrical vehicle purchases. Elsewhere however we expect subdued data, with a 0.1% increase ex autos and a rise of 0.2% ex autos and gasoline.