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April 06, 2026
U.S. March ISM Services - Slower but far from weak, with inflationary pressure rising
April 6, 2026 2:15 PM UTC
March’s ISM services index of 54.0 is weaker than expected and down from February’s 56.1 which was the strongest since July 2022. However, March’s reading remains higher than in every month of 2025, contrasting the S and P services PMI, which on Friday was revised down to a below neutral 49.8
Preview: Due April 7 - U.S. February Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to slip, but ex transport trend is firm
April 6, 2026 1:32 PM UTC
We expect February durable goods orders to decline by 2.2% on a correction from recent strength in aircraft, though ex transport we expect continued underlying strength to be shown, with a rise of 0.7%.
April 03, 2026
Preview: Due April 14 - U.S. March PPI - Strongest since March 2022
April 3, 2026 4:51 PM UTC
We expect PPI to rise by 1.0% in February, which would be the strongest rise since March 2022. The rise will be led by energy, though the core rates ex food and energy at 0.5% and ex food, energy and trade at 0.4% are likely to maintain a recent acceleration.
Preview: Due April 16 - U.S. March Industrial Production - Moderate manufacturing gain, stronger overall
April 3, 2026 2:50 PM UTC
We expect a 0.5% increase in March industrial production with the increase coming from a 0.3% rise in manufacturing, while gains of 1.0% in utilities and 1.2% in mining will each add around 0.1% to the total.
Preview: Due April 6 - U.S. March ISM Services - February strength difficult to sustain
April 3, 2026 1:46 PM UTC
We expect March’s ISM services index to slip to 55.0 from February’s 56.1, which in being the highest reading since July 2002 looked unsustainably high, even ahead of the Middle East conflict.
U.S. March Employment - Strong report suggests risks clearly higher on the inflation side
April 3, 2026 1:27 PM UTC
March’s non-farm patrol is clearly on the strong side of expectations, up by 178k and an even stronger 186k in the private sector, with minimal net downward revisions of 7k. Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.3% from 4.4%. Less positive are a lower than expected 0.2% rise in average hourly earnin
April 02, 2026
Preview: Due April 13 - U.S. March Existing Home Sales - Trend near flat, downside risk in Q2
April 2, 2026 5:41 PM UTC
We expect a marginal 0.2% increase in March existing home sales to 4.10m leaving trend with little direction. Going forward, the Iran war poses downside risks in Q2, depending on its duration.
Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. March Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - A boost from returning strikers, but trend subdued
April 2, 2026 1:57 PM UTC
We now expect March’s non-farm payroll to rise by 50k overall and by 60k in the private sector, both revised up by 30k due to the ending of strikes, largely in health, as shown in Friday’s strike report. This is still consistent with a subdued labor market picture, which a rise in unemployment
Russia’s Inflation Will Hover Around 5.9% in March
April 2, 2026 7:48 AM UTC
Bottom Line: After edging down to 5.9% in February from 6% in the previous month, we expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern moderately in March owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. March inflation figures will be anno
April 01, 2026
Preview: Due April 10 - U.S. March CPI - Energy to surge, but core rate seen similar to February
April 1, 2026 7:26 PM UTC
We expect March CPI to surge by 1.0% overall, which would be the strongest rise since June 2022, seen in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However we expect only a moderate increase ex food and energy, of 0.22% before rounding, which would match that seen in February.
Preview: Due April 9 - U.S. January Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform CPI
April 1, 2026 2:44 PM UTC
We expect February to see a third straight strong 0.4% increase in core PCE prices, while personal spending with a 0.6% increase outperforms a 0.3% rise in personal income. This will see a January bounce in savings corrected.
U.S. March ISM Manufacturing - Composite firm but new orders slower and prices strong
April 1, 2026 2:17 PM UTC
March’s ISM manufacturing index at 52.7 is slightly improved from February’s 52.4 and maintains a sharp improvement into positive territory in Q1. However rising prices paid and slowing new orders provide some warnings that surging energy prices could have adverse effects.
U.S. February Retail Sales and March ADP Employment resilient, but gasoline prices may undermine consumers
April 1, 2026 1:10 PM UTC
March’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 62k is stronger than the market expected and similar to February’s 66k. February retail sales are also marginally firmer than expected, up by 0.6% overall, 0.5% ex autos and 0l;4% ex autos and gasoline. In March consumers will be dealing
Preview: Due April 2 - U.S. February Trade Balance - Volatility continuing, deficit to bounce after January decline
April 1, 2026 11:57 AM UTC
We expect the US trade balance to continue to show volatility in February, with a deficit of $68.0bn, up from $54.5bn in January but below December’s $72.9bn. The deficit would remain slightly below where trend was running in 2024, around $75.0bn per month, before a pre-tariff surge and a post-tar
March 31, 2026
Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. March ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data rising modestly
March 31, 2026 6:08 PM UTC
We expect a 40k increase in March’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be consistent with a 4-week average of 10k in the weekly ADP employment report for the weeks to March 7. That was the week before the monthly data was surveyed.
Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. March Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Forecast revised up on returning strikers, but still implying a subdued trend
March 31, 2026 5:56 PM UTC
We now expect March’s non-farm payroll to rise by 50k overall and by 60k in the private sector, both revised up by 30k due to the ending of strikes, largely in health, as shown in Friday’s strike report. This is still consistent with a subdued labor market picture, which a rise in unemployment
U.S. March Consumer Confidence resilient to higher inflation expectations, February job openings trend near flat
March 31, 2026 2:30 PM UTC
Despite a bounce in inflation expectations, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index is surprisingly stronger in March at 91.8 from 91.0, a second straight rise though not fully erasing a January dip. February JOLTS data on job openings suggests a fairly stable labor market picture.
Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. March ISM Manufacturing - Sustaining recent improvement
March 31, 2026 1:57 PM UTC
We expect March’s ISM manufacturing index to maintain the significantly improved tone of January and February data, edging marginally higher to 52.5 from 52.4. This would be a third straight positive to follow ten straight negatives.
Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. February Retail Sales - Autos and gasoline to rise, trend now subdued
March 31, 2026 12:50 PM UTC
We expect February retail sales to see a modest bounce of 0.4% after a 0.2% decline in January, with sales ex auto increasing by 0.3% after two straight unchanged months. Ex autos and gasoline however we expect a rise of only 0.2%, down from 0.3% in January, keeping trend subdued.
March 30, 2026
Preview: Due March 31 - Canada January GDP - Flat on the month and near flat yr/yr
March 30, 2026 11:50 AM UTC
We expect January Canadian GDP to be unchanged in line with a preliminary estimate made with December’s data. We expect a positive preliminary estimate for February of around 0.2%, though Q1 is still likely to fall short of a 1.8% annualized Bank of Canada forecast made in January.
March 27, 2026
U.S. March Final Michigan CSI - Short term inflation expectations rise, long term view stable
March 27, 2026 2:14 PM UTC
The final March Michigan CSI at 53.3 is weaker than the preliminary of 55.5 which appears to be a response to worries over the Middle East and energy prices. The 1 year inflation expectation has been revised up significantly, but the Fed will be relieved to see the 5-10 year view unchanged.
Preview: Due April 10 - Canada March Employment - Highly volatile, but trend still looks modestly positive
March 27, 2026 1:27 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 40k in March, in a correction from an exceptionally large decline of 83.9k in February which may have been influenced by weather. While the data has been very volatile, underlying trend is probably still moderately positive. We expect an unemployment rate
March 26, 2026
Preview: Due April 7 - U.S. February Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to slip, but ex transport trend is firm
March 26, 2026 6:40 PM UTC
We expect February durable goods orders to decline by 2.2% on a correction from recent strength in aircraft, though ex transport we expect continued underlying strength to be shown, with a rise of 0.7%.
Preview: Due April 6 (rescheduled from April 3) - U.S. March ISM Services - February strength difficult to sustain
March 26, 2026 2:29 PM UTC
We expect March’s ISM services index to slip to 55.0 from February’s 56.1, which in being the highest reading since July 2002 looked unsustainably high, even ahead of the Middle East conflict.
U.S. Initial Claims rise but still low, Continued Claims fall but trend fairly stable
March 26, 2026 12:52 PM UTC
Initial claims are as expected at 210k, up by 5k from last week’s 9-week low. Continued claims at 1.819m are lower than expected, down by 32k and the lowest since September 2024, though trend remains fairly stable.
March 25, 2026
Preview: Due April 2 - U.S. February Trade Balance - Volatility continuing, deficit to bounce after January decline
March 25, 2026 2:49 PM UTC
We expect the US trade balance to continue to show volatility in February, with a deficit of $68.0bn, up from $54.5bn in January but below December’s $72.9bn. The deficit would remain slightly below where trend was running in 2024, around $75.0bn per month, before a pre-tariff surge and a post-tar
US Q4 Current Account - Deficit fall assisted by bounce in investment surplus
March 25, 2026 1:31 PM UTC
The Q4 current account deficit of $190.7bn is significantly lower than expected, down from $239.1bn in Q3, and the lowest since Q1 2021. The correction from Q1’s record pre-tariff deficit of $438.3bn continues.
March 24, 2026
Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. March ADP Employment - Weekly ADP data rising modestly
March 24, 2026 6:49 PM UTC
We expect a 40k increase in March’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be consistent with a 4-week average of 10k in the weekly ADP employment report for the weeks to March 7. That was the week before the monthly data was surveyed.
Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. March Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Back to subdued trend after strong January and weak February
March 24, 2026 6:33 PM UTC
We expect March’s non-farm payroll to rise by a marginal 20k overall and by 30k in the private sector, returning to a subdued trend after a strong January increase was mostly reversed in February. A rise in unemployment to 4.5% from 4.4% and a slower 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings would
Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. March ISM Services - February strength difficult to sustain
March 24, 2026 3:08 PM UTC
We expect March’s ISM services index to slip to 55.0 from February’s 56.1, which in being the highest reading since July 2002 looked unsustainably high, even ahead of the Middle East conflict.
Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. March ISM Manufacturing - Sustaining recent improvement
March 24, 2026 2:34 PM UTC
We expect March’s ISM manufacturing index to maintain the significantly improved tone of January and February data, edging marginally higher to 52.5 from 52.4. This would be a third straight positive to follow ten straight negatives.
Preview: Due March 25 - U.S. Q4 Current Account - Correction from record pre-tariff deficit extending further
March 24, 2026 12:39 PM UTC
We expect a Q4 US current account deficit of $215bn, down from $226.4bn in Q3 and the narrowest since Q1 2021. As a proportion of GDP the deficit would be 2.7%, down from 2.9% in Q3 and the narrowest since Q1 2020. The correction from the record $439.8bn pre-tariff deficit in Q1 continues.
March 23, 2026
March 20, 2026
Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. February Retail Sales - Autos and gasoline to rise, trend now subdued
March 20, 2026 5:30 PM UTC
We expect February retail sales to see a modest bounce of 0.4% after a 0.2% decline in January, with sales ex auto increasing by 0.3% after two straight unchanged months. Ex autos and gasoline however we expect a rise of only 0.2%, down from 0.3% in January, keeping trend subdued.
Preview: Due March 31 - Canada January GDP - Flat on the month and near flat yr/yr
March 20, 2026 3:07 PM UTC
We expect January Canadian GDP to be unchanged in line with a preliminary estimate made with December’s data. We expect a positive preliminary estimate for February of around 0.2%, though Q1 is still likely to fall short of a 1.8% annualized Bank of Canada forecast made in January.
Canada January retail sales - Positive start to Q1, but risks ahead
March 20, 2026 12:46 PM UTC
January Canadian retail sales with a 1.1% increase have fallen short of the provisional 1.5% estimate made with December’s report. Sales rose by 0.8% ex autos, 0.9% ex autos and gasoline and 1.0% overall in real terms. The preliminary estimate for February is for a 0.9% increase.
March 19, 2026
Preview: Due March 25 - U.S. Q4 Current Account - Correction from record pre-tariff deficit extending further
March 19, 2026 5:00 PM UTC
We expect a Q4 US current account deficit of $215bn, down from $226.4bn in Q3 and the narrowest since Q1 2021. As a proportion of GDP the deficit would be 2.7%, down from 2.9% in Q3 and the narrowest since Q1 2020. The correction from the record $439.8bn pre-tariff deficit in Q1 continues.
South Africa Inflation Eased to 3.0% y/y in February; but Rate Cut is Unlikely on March 26 Due to Adverse Global Developments
March 19, 2026 3:11 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced that annual inflation edged down to 3.0% y/y in February, the lowest since June 2025, driven by slowdown in prices of transportation and food and non-alcoholic beverages (NAB). The inflation stayed within the South African Reserve Bank’s (
U.S. January New Home Sales - Weakness erases signs of improvement in trend
March 19, 2026 2:16 PM UTC
January new home sales have seen a sharp 17.6% decline to 587k, the weakest level since October 2022. Much of this weakness is probably due to weather, though other data from the housing sector suggests that signs of a pick-up in late 2025 have faded in early 2026.
U.S. Initial Claims low, Philly Fed stronger, but full impact of energy shock still to be felt
March 19, 2026 12:57 PM UTC
The latest US data is stronger than expected, initial claims at 205k from 213k reaching a 9-week low in the survey week for March’s non-farm payroll, and March’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of 18.1 from 16.3 at a 6-month high. The full impact of the Middle East conflict however is however yet
Brazil: Cautious 25bps Cut
March 19, 2026 7:27 AM UTC
BCB gave no detailed forward guidance, but they did hint at flexibility and did not lock themselves into only 25bps steps in future meetings. We do feel that policy is very tight and that a further cut will be evident at April 29 meeting. This could be either 25bps or 50bps depending on the leng
March 18, 2026
Preview: Due March 19 - U.S. January New Home Sales - Edging further off November's high
March 18, 2026 1:10 PM UTC
We expect a modest 0.7% decline in January new home sales to 740k, a second straight loss after a 1.7% decline in December. This would still leave most of November’s 15.5% increase, which took sales to their highest level since February 2022, intact.
U.S. February PPI - Trend accelerating even before the energy shock
March 18, 2026 12:59 PM UTC
February PPI has seen another strong month, up 0.7% overall, 0.5%% ex food and energy and 0.5% in the less volatile ex food, energy and trade. March is sure to see a strong rise, at least in the headline, on energy. Trend seems to be picking up more than is the case for consumer prices, possibly rel