Preview: Due October 19 - Canada September CPI - Steady with slightly slower BoC core rates

October 1, 2026 7:20 PM UTC

Despite upward pressure on energy, we expect September Canadian CPI to remain at 3.0% yr/yr for a third straight month, with marginal slowing in the Bank of Canada’s three core rates. 

Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant

October 1, 2026 4:52 PM UTC

We expect September PPI to increase by 0.6% overall led by energy with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This will suggest inflationary pressures remain elevated, with little sign of slowing at the producer level. 

U.S. September ISM Manufacturing - Prices regaining momentum

October 1, 2026 2:26 PM UTC

September’s ISM manufacturing index of 54.5 from 54.6 is almost unchanged and still healthy if remaining off July’s 55.3 high. Prices paid are accelerating, rising to 77.9 after two months at 71.1, though not yet back at April’s high of 84.6.

Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Healthy if less strong than August

October 1, 2026 1:06 PM UTC

We expect September’s non-farm payroll to rise by 100k both overall and in the private sector, slower than in August but still implying a healthy trend. We expect a 4.1% unemployment rate for a third straight month but a slightly slower 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and a stable workweek. O

Preview: Due October 12 - U.S. September Existing Home Sales - Marginal correction higher, but trend is falling

September 30, 2026 7:27 PM UTC

We see scope for a marginal upward correction in September existing home sales, by 0.5% to 4.00m after three straight declines. However rising mortgage rates and Fed tightening are likely to bring renewed slippage in Q4.

Preview: Due October 6 - U.S. August Trade Balance - Advance goods data suggests widest post-tariff deficit

September 30, 2026 4:49 PM UTC

We expect an August trade deficit of $102.3bn, up sharply from $88.6bn in July and the widest deficit since the record $133.0bn seen in March 2025 ahead of the tariffs. August’s deficit will be larger than anything seen before Q1 2025.

Preview: Due October 1 - U.S. September ISM Manufacturing - Back to near the recent high

September 30, 2026 2:18 PM UTC

We September’s ISM manufacturing index to pick up to 55.5 from August’s 54.6, not quite reaching July’s 55.6 that was the highest since May 2022 but sustaining a clearly healthy picture. 

U.S. GDP, Income, Spending and PCE Price revisions mostly encouraging, but Trade Deficit is rising

September 30, 2026 1:51 PM UTC

The final Q2 GDP report and August’s personal income and spending data are notable for historical revisions going back to 2021. The news in the revisions is generally encouraging, with upward revisions to GDP and real disposable income but downward revisions to PCE prices, led by non-market prices

U.S. September Consumer Confidence down sharply, August Job Openings slip

September 29, 2026 2:33 PM UTC

September consumer confidence at 81.9 from 88.6 is the weakest since April 2014 with consumers worrying about prices, jobs and interest rates. August job openings fell by 256k to 7.079m, the weakest level since December 2025, though this signal is less negative than from the confidence data.

Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. August Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit rising again

September 29, 2026 1:03 PM UTC

We expect an advance August goods trade deficit of $122.7bn, a marginal increase from July’s $118.9bn which was the widest since the record pre-tariff deficit of $158.7bn seen in March 2025.

Canada July GDP - Pause after strong June, heading for a respectable Q3

September 29, 2026 12:52 PM UTC

July Canadian GDP is unchanged, in line with the preliminary indication given with June data. This marks a pause after a strong 0.4% increase in June, which was revised up from 0.3%. The preliminary estimate for August is for a moderate increase of 0.2%, leaving underlying momentum intact, but fresh

Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. August Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, watch for revisions

September 29, 2026 12:20 PM UTC

We expect August PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.4% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy. We expect a 0.5% increase in personal income, and a strong 0.9% increase in personal spending. The data should be watched not only for August changes, but also for historical revisions going ba

Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. Final (Third) Estimate Q2 GDP - Historical revisions due

September 29, 2026 12:12 PM UTC

Final Q2 GDP data is due on September 30 and we are not forecasting any revision from the preliminary 1.5% estimate. Of greater significance will be historical revisions for data going back through 2021. We will be watching particularly for any revisions to core PCE prices, personal income and spend

Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. September ADP Employment - Signs of improvement

September 29, 2026 12:03 PM UTC

We expect an 85k increase in September’s ADP estimate for private sector employment. The 4 week average from ADP’s weekly report for the week to September 5, the week before the monthly survey, was 20k and picking up. This implies a monthly increase slightly stronger than 80k.

U.S. July Durable Goods Orders - Some loss of momentum in Q3 to date

September 25, 2026 12:50 PM UTC

August durable goods orders are unchanged, a little stronger than expected overall, but the ex transport gain of 0.3% is weaker than expected and even with July revised up to 0.7% from 0.4% Q3 data to data has been slower than Q2’s. 

SNB: Keeps Rates Unchanged - in no Rush to Hike

September 25, 2026 11:06 AM UTC

Yesterday’s announcement left the SNB on hold at 0% while nudging its inflation forecast modestly upwards and dialling down its threat of intervention as a weakening in the Franc prompted it to pivot towards more vigilance on inflation. The market expects the SNB to hike early next year but we see

U.S. August New Home Sales - More strong data but this one will be hard to sustain

September 24, 2026 2:14 PM UTC

August new home sales with a 6.4% rise to 684k have more than fully erased a 4.3% July decline (previously reported as -10.5%). This continues the recent string of stronger than expected US data, even in housing, identified by Fed Chairman Warsh at Jackson Hole and one of two areas of weakness, alon

Canada July retail sales correct lower but August seen stronger

September 24, 2026 1:08 PM UTC

July Canadian retail sales with a 0.7% decline are not quite as weak as the -0.8% preliminary estimate given with June’s report. The decline follows a 0.6% increase in June but the preliminary estimate for August is more positive, up by 1.3%.

US Initial Claims remain very low, Q2 Current Account deficit increases but narrower than expected

September 24, 2026 12:51 PM UTC

Initial claims at 197k remain very low with last week (the survey week for September’s non-farm payroll) revised up to 198k from 196k. Continued claims, covering the week before initial claims at 1.719m are marginally up from 1.717m, but last week was revised from 1.730m, and is now a sharp 48k fa

Preview: Due September 25 - U.S. August Durable Goods Orders - Some signs momentum is slowing in Q3

September 24, 2026 12:00 PM UTC

We expect a 0.3% decline in August durable goods orders on a weak month for aircraft as implied by Boeing data, but a 0.7% increase ex transport. This would be  slightly stronger than July’s 0.4% but would still suggest some loss of momentum in Q3. 

Preview: Due October 5 - U.S. September ISM Services - Maintaining a fairly steady picture

September 23, 2026 5:37 PM UTC

While the S and P services PMI has accelerated sharply though Q3 after being quite subdued in Q1 and Q2, we expect the ISM services index to maintain a fairly steady profile that has been seen in the year to date, correcting lower to 55.0 from August’s 55.4, which was up from 54.1 in July.

Preview: Due October 1 - U.S. September ISM Manufacturing - Back to near the recent high

September 23, 2026 3:42 PM UTC

We September’s ISM manufacturing index to pick up to 55.5 from August’s 54.6, not quite reaching July’s 55.6 that was the highest since May 2022 but sustaining a clearly healthy picture. 

Preview: Due September 24 - U.S. August New Home Sales - An upward correction in a slowing trend

September 23, 2026 2:32 PM UTC

We expect an August new home sales pace of 635k, which would be a 4.6% increase if July’s 10.5% decline to 607k is revised. A modest rise should be seen as corrective with trend weakening, in part because of upward pressure on mortgage rates.

U.S. September S&P PMIs - Sharp gains in Manufacturing and Services back improved Q3 GDP signals

September 23, 2026 2:12 PM UTC

September’s preliminary S and P PMIs are startlingly strong, manufacturing at 57.0 from 53.9 and services at 58.7 from 56.5. The composite increased to 58.4 from 56.0.  The numbers are consistent with a Fed view that the economy has strengthened recently, with recent data also suggesting that Q3

Preview: Due September 24 - U.S. Q2 Current Account - A wider deficit on goods trade

September 23, 2026 12:35 PM UTC

We expect a Q2 US current account deficit of $255.0bn, up from $226.8bn in Q1 which is likely to be revised narrower. As a proportion of GDP the deficit is set to increase to 3.14% from 2.85% in Q1. 

EZ PMIs Show Ongoing Growth Momentum in Q3

September 23, 2026 8:42 AM UTC

The S&P flash Eurozone PMI signalled a quickening in the pace of activity during September with the composite index rising to 53.1 from 52 before and boosted by rapid gains in the service sector and ongoing growth in the manufacturing sector. With September’s number now in hand the PMIs point to E