U.S. September ISM Services - Back to neutral, prices still firm

October 3, 2025 2:22 PM UTC

September’s ISM services index has slipped back to a neutral 50.0 after a bounce to 52.0 in August from July’s near neutral 50.1 . We had suspected that August data had been flattered by seasonal adjustments but seasonal adjustments do not fully explain the recent moves.

15-Month Consecutive Falling Streak Ends: Turkiye Inflation Surged to 33.3% in September

October 3, 2025 9:54 AM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on October 3 that the inflation slightly increased to 33.3% y/y in September from 32.9% y/y in August driven by higher education, housing and food prices, ending the 15-month consecutive falling streak. Increasing inflation, upside-tilted

Preview: Due October 3 - U.S. September ISM Services - August bounce was flattered by seasonal adjustments

October 2, 2025 3:45 PM UTC

We expect slippage in September’s ISM services index to 51.0 from 52.0, still above the levels seen in May, June and July, but implying a subdued pace of economic growth. 

Preview: Due October 16 (dependent on shutdown ending) - U.S. September Retail Sales - Still growing, if more on prices than volumes

October 2, 2025 12:53 PM UTC

We expect a third straight 0.6% increase in retail sales in September, with slightly over half of the increase coming in prices, leaving only moderate growth in real terms. We also expect 0.6% increase ex autos but a slightly weaker 0.5% increase ex autos and gasoline. 

Russia’s Growth Continues to Lose Steam

October 2, 2025 11:17 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to a recent announcement by the Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP expanded by a moderate 0.4% YoY in August, meeting the same pace in the previous month, driven by manufacturing, retail trade and agriculture activities. According to the announcement, the growth in

Preview: Due October 16 (dependent on shutdown ending) - U.S. Setember PPI - Closer to trend after strong July and weak August

October 1, 2025 7:36 PM UTC

We expect September PPI to rise by 0.4% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy, with the latter gain coming near the average of a 0.7% bounce in July that was corrected by a 0.1% decline in August. Ex food, energy and trade we expect a moderate 0.2% increase after gains of 0.3% in August and 0.6% in Ju

Preview: Due October 15 (dependent on shutdown ending) - U.S. September CPI - Firm but a little less so in core rate

October 1, 2025 6:29 PM UTC

We expect September CPI to increase by 0.4% overall and by 0.3% ex food and energy, matching August’s outcomes after rounding, though before rounding we expect overall CPI to be rounded down from 0.425%, and the core rate to be rounded up from 0.28%, contrasting August data when headline CPI was r

U.S. September ISM Manufacturing - Slightly firmer but a subdued picture

October 1, 2025 2:16 PM UTC

September’s ISM manufacturing index of 49.1 is up from August’s 48.7 and marginally beats 49.0 readings in June and March to record its highest reading since February. However there remains little direction to underlying trend.

Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in September

October 1, 2025 1:35 PM UTC

Bottom Line: We expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in September, after hitting the softest rate since April of 2024 with 8.1% YoY in August, particularly thanks to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening coupled with softening services and food prices. Sep

U.S. September ADP Employment declines, initial claims and payroll releases face delay

October 1, 2025 12:48 PM UTC

ADP’s September estimate of employment is weaker than expected with a 32k decline, extending a recent slowing in trend. Adding to the negative message, August was revised to a 3k decline from a 54k rise. Given the government shutdown starting today this may be the last look at the labor market we

Preview: Due October 1 - U.S. September ADP Employment - May get more attention if Federal government shuts down

September 30, 2025 12:33 PM UTC

We expect a rise of 45k in August’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth. This would match our forecast for overall non-farm payrolls but underperform our 50k forecast for private payrolls, correcting from three straight modest outperformances.

German HICP Review: Headline Higher And Core Rises Due to Fresh Services Push?

September 30, 2025 12:25 PM UTC

Germany’s disinflation process hit a further more-than-expected hurdle in September, as the HICP measure rose 0.3 ppt for a second successive month, thereby even more clearly up from July’s 1.8% y/y, that having been a 10-mth low (Figure 1).  This (again) occurred largely due to energy base eff

U.S. August Pending Home Sales - Significant bounce, follows strength in August new home sales

September 29, 2025 2:18 PM UTC

Pending home sales have seen a sharp 4.0% increase in August, which hints at a bounce in existing home sales in September.  We have also recently seen a strong rise in August new home sales. Lower bond yields in anticipation of Fed easing appear to be having some impact.

Canada July GDP - First increase in four months

September 26, 2025 1:30 PM UTC

July Canadian GDP followed three straight declines with a rise of 0.2%, stronger than the 0.1% preliminary estimate made with June’s data. The preliminary estimate for August is unchanged. If both August and September are unchanged Q3 GDP would be up by around 0.7% annualized after a decline in Q2

U.S. August Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices maintaining trend, still above target

September 26, 2025 1:09 PM UTC

August personal income at 0.4% and spending at 0.6% are both a little stronger than expected while price indices are in line, 0.3% for overall PCE and 0.2% for the core rate, with the latter 0.227% before rounding. Each price index underperformed the August CPI counterpart by 0.1% (August PPI was so

U.S. Q2 GDP with revisions - Charts and Table

September 25, 2025 1:27 PM UTC

GDP has seen an unexpected upward revision to Q2 with historical revisions not dramatically changing the picture.

U.S. Initial Claims, GDP revisions, Durables and Trade all stronger than expected

September 25, 2025 1:17 PM UTC

The latest set of US data is clearly on the strong side of expectations, with Q2 GDP revised up significantly to 3.8% from 3.3%, August’s advance trade deficit falling to $85.5bn from $102.8bn, August durable goods orders rising by 2.9% with a 0.4% increase ex transport, and initial claims falling

Preview: Due October 1 - U.S. September ADP Employment - May get more attention if Federal government shuts down

September 24, 2025 5:19 PM UTC

We expect a rise of 45k in August’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth. This would match our forecast for overall non-farm payrolls but underperform our 50k forecast for private payrolls, correcting from three straight modest outperformances.

Preview: Due October 3 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Still subdued, but slightly stronger than in August

September 24, 2025 3:28 PM UTC

We expect September’s non-farm payroll to show another subdued rise,  of 45k, with 50k in the private sector, but marginally stronger than July’s respective gains of 22k and 38k. We expect unemployment to slip to 4.2% from 4.3% on a fall in the labor force, while average hourly earnings maintai

German HICP Preview (Sep 30): Headline Higher But Core to Fall Further?

September 23, 2025 2:21 PM UTC

Germany’s disinflation process hit a slightly more-than-expected hurdle in August, as the HICP measure rose 0.3 ppt from July’s 1.8% y/y, that having been a 10-mth low (Figure 1).  This occurred largely due to energy base effects with food prices also contributing slightly. The result was that

US Q2 Current Account - Deficit falls sharply from pre-tariff record in Q1

September 23, 2025 12:50 PM UTC

The Q2 current account deficit of $251.3bn is slightly lower than expected and compares to a downwardly revised (though still record high) deficit of $439.8bn (from $450.2bn) in Q1. The Q2 deficit is the lowest since Q3 2023.

Preview: Due September 23 - U.S. Q2 Current Account - Correction from record pre-tariff deficit

September 22, 2025 12:28 PM UTC

We expect a Q2 US current account deficit of $256bn, down from the record $450.2bn in Q1, when imports surged in anticipation of tariffs, before correcting sharply lower in Q2. Q2’s deficit would then be the lowest since Q4 2023. As a proportion of GDP the deficit would be 3.4%, down from 6.0% in

Canada July retail sales weak but August seen stronger

September 19, 2025 12:48 PM UTC

Canadian retail sales at -0.8% in July are spot on the preliminary estimate, something that is far from always being the case. The preliminary estimate for August is for a 1.0% increase, which suggests the Canadian economy is not falling sharply in Q3 after export-led slippage in GDP in Q2.

U.S. Initial Claims show last week's bounce was erratic, September Philly Fed surprisingly strong

September 18, 2025 12:55 PM UTC

Weekly initial claims at 231k have returned to trend after last week’s surprisingly high 264k which appears to have been influenced by Labor Day seasonal adjustments. September’s 23.2 Philly Fed manufacturing index is also surprisingly strong, contrasting weaker Empire State data.

Brazil: 15% Well Into 2026

September 18, 2025 6:29 AM UTC

The BCB statement was clear that the deanchored inflation picture still requires interest rates to be kept at current levels for a very prolonged period of time.  The consensus for economists is that this will change in Q1 2026 with a 50bps cut, though ideas of December are fading.  We suspect it

South Africa Inflation Slightly Softened to 3.3% YoY in August

September 17, 2025 1:17 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on September 17 that annual inflation softened  to 3.3% YoY in August from 3.5% in July thanks to slower food price growth and falling fuel costs. Despite inflation is still within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 3%-6% target rang

U.S. August Housing Starts and Permits - Broad based slippage

September 17, 2025 12:45 PM UTC

August housing starts with a fall of 8.5% to 1307k and permits with a fall of 3.7% to 1312k are both weaker than expected. Details in both series show declines in both singles and multiples, with the sharper declines in the volatile latter components.

Canada August CPI - Subdued enough for a BoC easing

September 16, 2025 1:04 PM UTC

August Canadian CPI at 1.9% yr/yr reversed a July dip to 1.7% yr/yr and remains restrained by around 0.7% by the abolition of the carbon tax. Core rates remain above target but are on balance marginally softer while monthly details also look acceptably subdued. The data is not an obstacle to an expe

U.S. August Retail Sales - Still Resilient

September 16, 2025 12:48 PM UTC

August retail sales with a 0.6% increase, with the ex-auto and ex auto and gasoline gains both at 0.7%, are stronger than expected and suggest continued consumer resilience despite a slowing in employment growth. The rise modestly exceeds a 0.5% rise in CPI commodity prices in August.