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August 20, 2026
Preview: Due September 4 - Canada August Employment - A moderate month after a very strong one
August 20, 2026 7:27 PM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 20k in August, a moderate gain to follow a very strong 75.1k in July, similar to the moderate 18.2k increase in June that followed a very strong rise of 87.8k in May. We expect unemployment to hold at 6.4%, after three straight declines.
Preview: Due September 4 - U.S. August Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Corrections from recent payroll weakness and unemployment declines
August 20, 2026 4:58 PM UTC
We expect August’s non-farm payroll to rise by 75k both overall and in the private sector, still moderate but the strongest in both series since April. We however expect unemployment to correct higher to 4.2% after falling to 4.1% in July from 4.2% in June and before that three straight months at
Preview: Due September 4 - U.S. August Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Corrections from recent payroll weakness and unemployment declines
August 20, 2026 4:58 PM UTC
We expect August’s non-farm payroll to rise by 75k both overall and in the private sector, still moderate but the strongest in both series since April. We however expect unemployment to correct higher to 4.2% after falling to 4.1% in July from 4.2% in June and before that three straight months at
U.S. Initial Claims stabilizing, August Philly Fed extremely strong
August 20, 2026 1:09 PM UTC
Initial claims at 206k in the survey week for August’s non-farm payroll are down from 212k in the preceding week but appear to be stabilizing after slipping in July. August’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of 47.4 is very strong indeed, suggesting July’s reading of 41.4 was not overstated as m
August 19, 2026
UK CPI: Energy Prices and Weak Labour Market
August 19, 2026 6:29 AM UTC
· July UK CPI was broadly as expected and the new few months will be volatile and dependent on whether more shipping can go through the Straits of Hormuz and reduce energy prices (our baseline with a 60% probability). Underlying inflation trends in the UK are lower, as labour market d
UK CPI: Energy Prices and Weak Labour Market
August 19, 2026 6:28 AM UTC
· July UK CPI was broadly as expected and the new few months will be volatile and dependent on whether more shipping can go through the Straits of Hormuz and reduce energy prices (our baseline with a 60% probability). Underlying inflation trends in the UK are lower, as labour market d
August 18, 2026
Preview: Due August 27 - U.S. July Advance Goods Trade Balance - Wider in nominal and real terms
August 18, 2026 3:39 PM UTC
We expect a July advance goods trade deficit of $105.0bn, up from $101.4bn in June but slightly below the $105.3bn seen in May. May saw the widest deficit since the record $158.7bn of March 2025 immediately before the reciprocal tariffs were announced.
U.S. July Pending Home Sales - Getting close to January's record low
August 18, 2026 2:15 PM UTC
Pending home sales have fallen by 2.3% in July, a second straight decline to follow four straight gains that came off a record low seen in January. We are now only 0.6% above that record low, so this is clearly a weak figure.
U.S. July Industrial Production - Healthy excluding a dip in autos
August 18, 2026 1:33 PM UTC
July industrial production with a 0.2% increase was slightly weaker than expected but manufacturing with a 0.2% increase was in line. A 0.4% increase in manufacturing ex autos however hints at some underlying strength.
U.S. July Industrial Production - Healthy excluding a dip in autos
August 18, 2026 1:33 PM UTC
July industrial production with a 0.2% increase was slightly weaker than expected but manufacturing with a 0.2% increase was in line. A 0.4% increase in manufacturing ex autos however hints at some underlying strength.
U.S. July Housing Starts and Permits - Mixed but broader picture near neutral
August 18, 2026 12:51 PM UTC
July housing starts with a 12.4% decline to 1.239m contrast a rise in permits of 5.0% to 1.443m, though the plunge in starts follows a 19.7% rise in June while the rise in permits follows a 2.6% decline in June. Starts remain above May’s level while permits are the strongest since February.
U.S. July Housing Starts and Permits - Mixed but broader picture near neutral
August 18, 2026 12:51 PM UTC
July housing starts with a 12.4% decline to 1.239m contrast a rise in permits of 5.0% to 1.443m, though the plunge in starts follows a 19.7% rise in June while the rise in permits follows a 2.6% decline in June. Starts remain above May’s level while permits are the strongest since February.
China July Activity Data Review: More Downside than Upside
August 18, 2026 12:44 AM UTC
China's key economic indicators for July 2026 reflect persistent weakness in domestic consumption and investment. The national surveyed urban unemployment rate stood at a steady average of 5.2%, which helps retail sales a bit. Still, the three Weaker-than-expected July data increases pressure on Bei
August 17, 2026
Fresh U.S. Tariff Risks to Canada's Economy are Moderate
August 17, 2026 6:54 PM UTC
The US and Canada are approaching an August 19 deadline for the US to impose 50% tariffs on some Canadian exports. Tense negotiations are to be expected as the deadline approaches but a deal is far from certain. Many in the market may be expecting Trump to back down a few days after announcing the t
Preview: Due August 18 - U.S. July Housing Starts and Permits - Modest declines, consistent with trend
August 17, 2026 2:26 PM UTC
We expect July housing starts to fall by 4.7% to 1360k while permits fall by 0.3% to 1370k. Trends in the housing sector appear to be showing a modest loss of momentum entering Q3.
Preview: Due August 18 - U.S. July Industrial Production - Modest manufacturing gain, stronger overall
August 17, 2026 1:46 PM UTC
We expect a 0.4% increase in July industrial production to follow two straight gains of 0.1%. For manufacturing we expect an increase of 0.2%, also improved from a flat June and a 0.1% increase in May.
U.S. August Empire State Manufacturing Survey - Strongest since December 2021
August 17, 2026 1:16 PM UTC
August’s Empire State manufacturing index at 20.6 from 15.6 is the strongest since December 2021 and implies that a recent investment-fueled revival in manufacturing persists, though it should be noted that the Empire State survey is quite volatile.
Canada July CPI - Like the economy, picking up from recent core weakness
August 17, 2026 12:57 PM UTC
July’s Canadian CPI with a rise to 3.0% yr/yr from 2.8% is slightly stronger than expected, with the Bank of Canada’s core rates on balance slightly firmer, if still close to target for CPI-Median and CPI-Trim. The data suggests underlying inflation is about where the BoC wants, and may reduce f
August 14, 2026
Preview: Due August 26 - U.S. July Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, savings finding a base
August 14, 2026 2:42 PM UTC
We expect July PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy. We expect a modest 0.2% increase in personal income, outperforming an unchanged outcome from personal spending.
Preview: Due August 26 - U.S. July Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, savings finding a base
August 14, 2026 2:42 PM UTC
We expect July PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy. We expect a modest 0.2% increase in personal income, outperforming an unchanged outcome from personal spending.
Preview: Due August 17 - Canada July CPI - Slightly firmer on energy but with stable core rates
August 14, 2026 1:50 PM UTC
We expect July Canadian CPI to correct higher to 2.9% yr/yr from June’s 2.8% which slipped significantly from May’s 3.2%, on a modest increase in gasoline prices after a sharp fall in June. However, we expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be unchanged from June, with CPI-Median at 1.9%, C
U.S. July Retail Sales - Fall may reflect acceptance that elevated prices will last for some time
August 14, 2026 12:59 PM UTC
July retail sales have surprised significantly to the downside, -0.6% overall, -0.3% ex auto and even ex autos and gasoline negative at -0.2%. The data follows a surprisingly resilient Q2 from consumer spending contrasting weakness in real disposable income, and hints at a significant loss of moment
U.S. July Retail Sales - Fall may reflect acceptance that elevated prices will last for some time
August 14, 2026 12:59 PM UTC
July retail sales have surprised significantly to the downside, -0.6% overall, -0.3% ex auto and even ex autos and gasoline negative at -0.2%. The data follows a surprisingly resilient Q2 from consumer spending contrasting weakness in real disposable income, and hints at a significant loss of moment
August 13, 2026
Preview: Due August 26 - U.S. July Durable Goods Orders - Still firm, if with some slowing on prices
August 13, 2026 2:51 PM UTC
We expect a 0.6% increase in July durable goods orders with a 0.7% increase ex defense and a 0.8% increase ex transport. This will suggest some loss of what remains healthy underlying momentum, though the slowing probably reflects prices more than volumes.
Preview: Due August 14 - U.S. July Retail Sales - Some loss of momentum, but still resilient
August 13, 2026 2:03 PM UTC
We expect June retail sales to unchanged overall, the weakest since a matching January, with a 0.2% increase ex autos, which would reverse a 0.2% June decline. Ex auto and gasoline we expect a second straight 0.4% increase.
Preview: Due August 14 - U.S. July Retail Sales - Some loss of momentum, but still resilient
August 13, 2026 2:02 PM UTC
We expect June retail sales to unchanged overall, the weakest since a matching January, with a 0.2% increase ex autos, which would reverse a 0.2% June decline. Ex auto and gasoline we expect a second straight 0.4% increase.
U.S. July PPI - Inflationary pressures persist outside corrections in some sectors
August 13, 2026 1:03 PM UTC
Initial claims at 209k from 200k are still low but appear to be normalizing after some very low recent outcomes, which turned out to contradict a weak July non-farm payroll. July PPI looks subdued overall at unchanged and 0.2% ex food and energy, but a 0.4% increase ex food and energy and trade show
U.S. July PPI - Inflationary pressures persist outside corrections in some sectors
August 13, 2026 1:03 PM UTC
Initial claims at 209k from 200k are still low but appear to be normalizing after some very low recent outcomes, which turned out to contradict a weak July non-farm payroll. July PPI looks subdued overall at unchanged and 0.2% ex food and energy, but a 0.4% increase ex food and energy and trade show
August 12, 2026
Preview: Due August 25 - U.S. July New Home Sales - Remaining soft
August 12, 2026 3:10 PM UTC
We expect July new home sales to be little changed at 620k, which would be down 1.3% from June if June is unrevised. This would still sustain step down in trend in 2026 to date, with movements in the preceding two years outside a 650-700k range having tended to be brief.
Preview: Due August 13 - U.S. July PPI - Prices seen subdued when data was surveyed
August 12, 2026 2:57 PM UTC
We expect July’s PPI to reflect more the more optimistic view of the Middle East seen at the start of the month than the riskier one later in the month. We expect gains of 0.1% overall, 0.3% ex food and energy and 0.2% ex food and trade, mostly subdued, if stronger than respective June outcomes of
Preview: Due August 13 - U.S. July PPI - Prices seen subdued when data was surveyed
August 12, 2026 2:57 PM UTC
We expect July’s PPI to reflect more the more optimistic view of the Middle East seen at the start of the month than the riskier one later in the month. We expect gains of 0.1% overall, 0.3% ex food and energy and 0.2% ex food and trade, mostly subdued, if stronger than respective June outcomes of
U.S. July CPI - On consensus, detail a marginal disappointment
August 12, 2026 1:15 PM UTC
July’s CPI is largely as expected, up 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the latter at 0.215% before rounding only a marginal disappointment, though possibly a little more so in the detail. This does not provide a compelling case for Fed tightening in September, though by that meeting
U.S. July CPI - On consensus, detail a marginal disappointment
August 12, 2026 1:15 PM UTC
July’s CPI is largely as expected, up 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the latter at 0.215% before rounding only a marginal disappointment, though possibly a little more so in the detail. This does not provide a compelling case for Fed tightening in September, though by that meeting
August 11, 2026
Preview: Due August 12 - U.S. July CPI - Another subdued month, if less so than June
August 11, 2026 12:50 PM UTC
We expect a subdued July CPI, up by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being only 0.06% and 0.19%. This will however be less weak than June’s 0.4% decline overall, with the June core rate ex food and energy having been unchanged.
Preview: Due August 12 - U.S. July CPI - Another subdued month, if less so than June
August 11, 2026 12:49 PM UTC
We expect a subdued July CPI, up by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being only 0.06% and 0.19%. This will however be less weak than June’s 0.4% decline overall, with the June core rate ex food and energy having been unchanged.
U.S. July NFIB survey - Optimism on both labor market and prices
August 11, 2026 11:21 AM UTC
July’s NFIB survey of Small Business Optimism shows the optimism index at its highest since August 2025 at 99.8 from 97.4. Despite July’s weak payroll, respondents are more optimistic about the labor market while seeing reduced inflationary pressure.
August 10, 2026
Preview: Due August 11 - U.S. July Existing Home Sales - Surveys suggest slippage
August 10, 2026 1:20 PM UTC
We expect July existing home sales to see a second straight monthly fall, by 1.5% to 4.03m, as fears that the next Fed move is likely to be a hike pick up, while remaining in the year to date range.
August 07, 2026
Preview: Due August 18 - U.S. July Industrial Production - Modest manufacturing gain, stronger overall
August 7, 2026 3:45 PM UTC
We expect a 0.4% increase in July industrial production to follow two straight gains of 0.1%. For manufacturing we expect an increase of 0.2%, also improved from a flat June and a 0.1% increase in May.
Preview: Due August 18 - U.S. July Housing Starts and Permits - Modest declines, consistent with trend
August 7, 2026 3:07 PM UTC
We expect July housing starts to fall by 4.7% to 1360k while permits fall by 0.3% to 1370k. Trends in the housing sector appear to be showing a modest loss of momentum entering Q3.
Canada July Employment - Labor market slack being reduced
August 7, 2026 1:50 PM UTC
Canada’s July employment report comes as quite a contrast to the US one, with a strong employment gain of 75.1k and a fall in unemployment to 6.4% from 6.5% coming despite a 60.5k bounce in the labor force. Wages were however weak in the Canadian report, falling to 3.0% yr/yr from 3.7%. Canada’s
U.S. July Employment - Softer payroll and falling unemployment hint at labor shortages, but no lift to earnings
August 7, 2026 1:21 PM UTC
July’s non-farm payroll at -23k with negative back month revisions is weaker than expected but largely because of negatives in government led by local government education and leisure and hospitality, which may reflect labor shortages. A declining labor force saw the unemployment rate fall, to 4.1
U.S. July Employment - Softer payroll and falling unemployment hint at labor shortages, but no lift to earnings
August 7, 2026 1:20 PM UTC
July’s non-farm payroll at -23k with negative back month revisions is weaker than expected but largely because of negatives in government led by local government education and leisure and hospitality, which may reflect labor shortages. A declining labor force saw the unemployment rate fall, to 4.1
August 06, 2026
Preview: Due August 7 - U.S. July Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than June, but with a rise in unemployment
August 6, 2026 1:27 PM UTC
We expect July’s non-farm payroll to rise by 120k overall and by 110k in the private sector, a significant improvement from June’s respective gains of 57k and 49k but largely explained by a recovery in leisure and hospitality. We expect unemployment to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, reversing a June de
Preview: Due August 7 - U.S. July Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than June, but with a rise in unemployment
August 6, 2026 1:27 PM UTC
We expect July’s non-farm payroll to rise by 120k overall and by 110k in the private sector, a significant improvement from June’s respective gains of 57k and 49k but largely explained by a recovery in leisure and hospitality. We expect unemployment to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, reversing a June de
U.S. Initial Claims remain low, Q2 Productivity and Unit Labor Costs healthy but Non-Labor Costs surge
August 6, 2026 1:07 PM UTC
Initial claims at 199k from 198k remain very low though continued claims at 1,801m from 1.777m hit a 4-week high. Claims data on balance are giving positive signals for July’s non-farm payroll. Q2 non-farm productivity at 1.4% is stronger than expected and Q2 unit labor costs at 1.3% softer than e
Preview: Due August 7 - Canada July Employment - Another positive month, but tariffs a risk going forward
August 6, 2026 11:53 AM UTC
We expect Canadian employment to increase by 20k in July, a third straight gain, similar to June’s 18.2k though well below May’s 87.8k which was correcting preceding weakness. We expect unemployment to match June’s 6.5% but before rounding to fall to 6.451% from 6.498%.