Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in October Likely Hitting Below 8.0% y/y

November 6, 2025 2:39 PM UTC

Bottom Line: We expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in October thanks to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening coupled with softening food prices and decreasing core inflation. October inflation figures will be announced on November 14, and we foresee Yr/Y

Some evidence of a subdued US labor market picture in October

November 6, 2025 2:02 PM UTC

While October’s non-farm payroll will not be released as scheduled tomorrow with September’s still absent, we are seeing some labor market signals today. A non-farm payroll estimate from Reveilo Labs shows payrolls down by 9.1k in October after a 33k rise in September (revised down from 60.1k).

Preview: U.S. October CPI - An important number that may never be seen

November 4, 2025 3:59 PM UTC

October US CPI, while scheduled on November 13, may never be released even if the government  shutdown is resolved, given lack of data collection during the month of October. However what the number would have been does matter. Our forecast is for a 0.2% increase overall, with a 0.3% rise ex food a

U.S. October Auto Sales - Lower as EV credits expire

November 4, 2025 1:16 PM UTC

US auto sales have shown a significant slowing in October, to a 15.3m pace from 16.4m in September. The slowing is seen largely due to the expiry of federal credits for electric vehicle purchases on September 30. 

Inflation Slightly Edged Down in October: But MoM Stood High at 2.5%

November 3, 2025 10:50 AM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced October inflation figures on November 3. Turkiye’s y/y inflation moderately softened to around 32.9% in October from 33.3% in September while upside-tilted inflation risks continued limiting the downward trend during the ongoing disinfla

Preview: Due October 31 - Canada August GDP - A flat month to follow the first rise in four months

October 30, 2025 12:24 PM UTC

We expect August Canadian GDP to be unchanged after a 0.2% July increase that followed three straight monthly declines in Q2. If September is also unchanged that would imply a modest annualized gain of around 0.7% in Q3 after a negative Q2. The Bank of Canada forecast Q3 GDP at 0.5% annualized.

U.S. September Pending Home Sales - Pause after August bounce

October 29, 2025 2:25 PM UTC

Pending home sales are unchanged in September, underperforming market expectations. Most housing sector indicators have been picking up in recent months. With the flat September following a 4.2% rise in August, pending home sales appear to be doing so too.

Preview: Due November 5 - U.S. October ISM Services - Seasonal adjustments to provide support

October 28, 2025 4:56 PM UTC

We expect October’s ISM services index to rise to 51.0 from 50.0, supported by seasonal adjustments. This would be in line with the Q3 average of 50.7 and the Q2 average of 50.8. 

Turkiye Inflation Preview: Inflation will Slightly Soften in October Despite Risks Dominate

October 28, 2025 4:43 PM UTC

Bottom line: After hitting 33.3% annually in September, we expect Turkiye’s inflation will likely soften moderately to around 32.5% in October while upside-tilted inflation risks limiting the downward trend during the ongoing disinflationary process. September inflation suggested that the pace o

U.S. September CPI - Soft enough for an October FOMC easing but still above target

October 24, 2025 12:58 PM UTC

September CPI is on the low side of expectations at 0.3% overall, 0.2% ex food and energy, and should not pose an obstacle to a likely 25bps easing at the October 29 FOMC meeting. The core rate was up by 0.23% before rounding, slower than July and August gains that rise by more than 0.3% before roun

Preview: Due October 31 - Canada August GDP - A flat month to follow the first rise in four months

October 23, 2025 1:47 PM UTC

We expect August Canadian GDP to be unchanged after a 0.2% July increase that followed three straight monthly declines in Q2. If September is also unchanged that would imply a modest annualized gain of around 0.7% in Q3 after a negative Q2.

October 23, 2025 1:07 PM UTC

While the government shutdown continues with no sign of a near term deal, September’s US CPI, originally scheduled for October 15, will be released on October 24. The release was considered essential as it is needed for annual cost of living adjustments to Social Security benefits. It is however p

Canada August retail sales - A positive month in a choppy trend

October 23, 2025 12:49 PM UTC

Canadian retail sales with a 1.0% August increase are spot on the preliminary estimate, though the gain is more dependent on autos than consensus estimates, with ex auto sales up by a slightly less strong 0.7%. The preliminary estimate for September is for a 0.7% decline. With July having fallen by

South Africa Inflation Slightly Surged to 3.4% YoY in September

October 22, 2025 2:01 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on October 22 that annual inflation edged up to 3.4% YoY in September from 3.3% YoY in August due to accelerated housing, restaurant and utilities costs. Despite inflation is still within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 3%-6% targe

Preview: Due October 23 - U.S. September Existing Home Sales - Signs of improvement

October 22, 2025 1:23 PM UTC

We expect September existing home sales to increase by 2.5% to 4.10m, reaching the highest level since February, as the housing market gets support from lower mortgage rates as Fed easing resumes.

Canada September CPI - Not alarmingly strong but argues against BoC easing next week

October 21, 2025 12:59 PM UTC

September Canadian CPI at 2.4% from 1.9% yr/yr is stronger than expected with the Bank of Canada’s Bank of Canada’s core rates also mostly marginally firmer. The monthly details do not look alarmingly strong but, particularly after a strong employment report, the data argues against a BoC easing

October 20, 2025 4:36 PM UTC

Germany’s disinflation process hit a further and more-than-expected hurdle in September, as the HICP measure rose 0.3 ppt for a second successive month, thereby even more clearly up from July’s 1.8% y/y, that having been a 10-mth low.  But we see most, if not all, of this rise being reversed in

Preview: Due October 21 - Canada September CPI - Higher as year ago weakness drops out

October 20, 2025 2:32 PM UTC

We expect September Canadian CPI to pick up to 2.2% yr/yr from 1.9%, in part on year ago weakness dropping out. The Bank of Canada’s core rates are likely to remain stable, and above the 2.0% target.  The yr/yr headline rate will remain restrained by around 0.7% due to April’s abolition of the

U.S. October Philly Fed - Details more encouraging than the weak headline

October 16, 2025 12:49 PM UTC

October’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of -12.8 has fallen unexpectedly sharply from the surprisingly strong September reading of 22.3 and is the weakest since April when tariff worries were at their peak. Detail in the report is however more positive.

U.S. October Empire State Manufacturing Survey - Activity rebounds, prices stronger

October 15, 2025 12:47 PM UTC

October’s Empire State manufacturing index at a positive 10.7 has rebounded from a weak -8.7 in September though remains below August’s level of 11.7. The series is volatile and may not be a useful signal for other surveys. In September, when the Empire State index was weak, the Philly Fed manuf

Tourism and Services Income Helped Turkish Current Account in August

October 13, 2025 1:59 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) on October 13, Turkiye’s current account surplus (CAS) stood at USD5.5 billion in August 2025 from USD4.9 billion in the same month of the previous year, hitting the largest on record, thanks to strong tourism an

Preview: Due October 24 (even if shutdown continues) - U.S. September CPI - Firm but a little less so in core rate

October 13, 2025 1:58 PM UTC

While the government shutdown continues with no sign of a near term deal, September’s US CPI, originally scheduled for October 15, will be released on October 24 even if the shutdown continues through then. The release was considered essential as it is needed for annual cost of living adjustments

U.S. October Preliminary Michigan CSI - Little changed, still pessimistic

October 10, 2025 7:16 PM UTC

October’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 55.0 is almost unchanged from September’s final of 55.1, if the weakest outcome since May. Inflation expectations were also little changed, the 1-year view down to 4.6% from 4.7% and the 5-10 year view unchanged at 3.6%.

Russia’s Inflation Softened to 17-Month Low in September

October 10, 2025 7:02 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Russian inflation continued its decreasing pattern in September, and hit the lowest in 17-months after with 7.98% y/y, particularly thanks to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary. According to Rosstat’s announcement on October 10, core inflation eased to 7.7% y/y from 8% y/y

Canada September Employment - Rebound strengthens the case for a BoC pause in October

October 10, 2025 1:10 PM UTC

Canada’s September employment report with a 60.4k increase has reversed nearly all of a 65.5k decline seen in August though unemployment which is unchanged at up to 7.1% remains up from July’s 6.9%. The Bank of Canada decision on October 29 remains a close call, but this data increases our confi

Preview: Due October 21 - Canada September CPI - Higher as year ago weakness drops out

October 8, 2025 1:50 PM UTC

We expect September Canadian CPI to pick up to 2.2% yr/yr from 1.9%, in part on year ago weakness dropping out. The Bank of Canada’s core rates are likely to remain stable, and above the 2.0% target.  The yr/yr headline rate will remain restrained by around 0.7% due to April’s abolition of the

New York Fed survey shows U.S. inflation expectations higher in September

October 7, 2025 3:13 PM UTC

The New York Fed’s September Survey of Consumer Expectations shows modest rises in inflation expectations on a 1, 3 and 5-year basis.

U.S. Q3 GDP heading for a rise of 2.3%, led by consumer spending and business investment

October 6, 2025 3:23 PM UTC

With the US government shutdown not looking set for a quick resolution, it is a good time to take a fresh look at Q3 GDP, which is scheduled for October 30, the day after the FOMC next meets, though the release could be delayed even if the shutdown is over by then. We now look for an increase of 2.3