Preview: Due December 23 - U.S. October and November Industrial Production - Net marginally positive
The Fed will release October and November industrial production together, having received key input data from the non-farm payrolls. We expect a 0.1% decline in October to be followed by a 0.2% increase in November, with manufacturing up by 0.3% in November after a 0.1% decline in October.
The non-farm payroll showed aggregate manufacturing hours worked rebounding in November from a dip in October, though there was less of a contrast in the data for production and non-supervisory workers. However we expect a marginal 0.1% dip in October manufacturing output to be followed by a 0.3% increase in November. This will keep trend marginally positive.
We expect autos to be a marginal negative in November but high-tech an offsetting positive. We expect both to have little impact on October. Mining is likely to see marginal declines in each month. We expect an offset in October from firmer utilities but little impact from utilities in November.
We see capacity utilization at 75.8% in November, up from 75.7% in October but below the 75.9 seen in August and September. October’s level would be the lowest since January.
