U.S. Fed's Goolsbee - Want to seee more soft CPIs

July 14, 2026 5:35 PM UTC

Fed hawk Goolsbee is only cautiously encouraged by today's soft CPI. 

FOMC Preview for July 29: Unchanged policy with an unspoken tightening bias

July 14, 2026 5:14 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on July 29 in a meeting that will see no update to the dots or economic forecasts. With forward guidance now becoming limited all meetings should be seen as live, but after softer than expected June non-farm payroll and more importantly CPI data, a change in policy looks unlikely at t

U.S. June CPI - Some volatile moves, but a clear relief for the Fed

July 14, 2026 1:12 PM UTC

June CPI is significantly softer than expected, both on the -0.4% headline and an unchanged outcome ex food and energy, with the respective figures before rounding being -0.422% and -0.017%. While there are a number of volatile declines in the breakdown and recent events in the Middle East present r

Iran/U.S.: A New War or Escalating to Deescalate?

July 14, 2026 10:40 AM UTC

·       Our baseline remains that the MOU will hold and that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen.  Iran can be pressured economically by the U.S. naval blockade being re-established. Additionally, President Trump loves to escalate to de-escalate to get a deal.  This is a 60% probability scenar

U.S. Fed's Waller - A strong core CPI could justify a near term tightening

July 13, 2026 7:07 PM UTC

Fed's Waller seems to want the upcoming core CPI to decide the Fed's next decision. Chairman Warsh testifies to Congress tomorrow,

Preview: Due July 14 - U.S. June CPI - Energy to correct lower, World Cup to support core

July 13, 2026 5:47 PM UTC

We expect June CPI to be unchanged overall as energy corrects from three straight strong gains while the core rate ex food and energy sees a slightly firmer 0.3% increase. Before rounding we expect respective outcomes of -0.02% and up 0.26%, with the World Cup having just enough impact to nudge the

Economic Data and Events Week Ahead July 13-17

July 10, 2026 3:06 PM UTC

The most significant release of the week is likely to be June’s CPI on Tuesday, which we expect to be unchanged overall, but with a slightly firmer 0.3% rise ex food and energy, 0.26% before rounding. The CPI could however be overshadowed by testimony from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to the House Financ

FOMC Minutes - Fork in the road: scenario-dependent policy

July 8, 2026 10:19 PM UTC

The June Minutes show a Committee that had skewed slightly more hawkish, in pockets, but had mainly moved toward greater uncertainty and dispersion. 
The spine of the policy debate now revolves around a fork in the road: two plausible inflation trajectories, with policy calibration in either directi

Preview: Due July 15 - U.S. June PPI - Some fading from recent strength

July 6, 2026 9:05 AM UTC

We expect an unchanged June PPI, a significant slowing from two straight gains of 1.1% as energy corrects from recent strength and other inflationary stimuli from the conflict in the Middle East fade. We expect a 0.4% rise ex food and energy, matching May’s outcome, and also a 0.4% increase ex foo

Preview: Due July 16 - U.S. June Retail Sales - Softer on gasoline, only modest underlying slowing

July 2, 2026 5:33 PM UTC

We expect June retail sales to fall by 0.2% overall and 0.4% ex autos, though with a 0.2% rise ex auto and gasoline. Even the latter would be the slowest gain since a flat December 2025.

U.S. June Employment - Upside May surprise offset, but unemployment falls on lower labor force

July 2, 2026 1:12 PM UTC

June’s non-farm payroll is weaker than expected with a 57k increase, 49k private, with downward revisions to April and May. The slowing is consistent with an upturn in the initial and continued claims trends, though both were almost unchanged (-1k to 215k and +2k to 1.814m respectively)  in the l

Preview: Due July 14 - U.S. June CPI - Energy to correct lower, World Cup to support core

July 1, 2026 3:18 PM UTC

We expect June CPI to be unchanged overall as energy corrects from three straight strong gains while the core rate ex food and energy sees a slightly firmer 0.3% increase. Before rounding we expect respective outcomes of -0.02% and up 0.26%, with the World Cup having just enough impact to nudge the

U.S. Fed's Warsh - Prices too high, risks have come down

July 1, 2026 1:49 PM UTC

Fed's Warsh is giving the necessary signals on the inflation target and independence, but is not sounding hawkish.

Preview: Due July 2 - U.S. June Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - World Cup boost versus underlying slowing

July 1, 2026 12:47 PM UTC

We expect June’s non-farm payroll to rise by 115k overall and by 125k in the private sector, the former a slowing from 172k in May but the latter marginally stronger than May’s 120k increase. We expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3% for a fourth straight month and an in line with trend

Continuum Economics Calendar July 2026

June 30, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar July 2026.

AI Boom and Bust?

June 30, 2026 10:45 AM UTC

•    While some are becoming wary that AI bust could arrive in coming quarters, AI labs revenue growth has been explosive and this sustains the vertical chain of datacenter demand and commitments for the hyperscalers and also buoyant semiconductor demand.  For 2027 and 2028 capital markets re

A Strong U.S. Q2 Report Now Looks Unlikely

June 29, 2026 1:26 PM UTC

After a sharp deterioration in May’s trade deficit, previously positive forecasts for Q2 GDP need to be trimmed significantly, though there is still uncertainty over June data. We now expect a Q2 GDP increase of only 0.9%, down from a  previous estimate of 2.3%. After an upward revision to Q1 our

A Strong U.S. Q2 Report Now Looks Unlikely

June 29, 2026 1:18 PM UTC

After a sharp deterioration in May’s trade deficit, previously positive forecasts for Q2 GDP need to be trimmed significantly, though there is still uncertainty over June data. We now expect a Q2 GDP increase of only 0.9%, down from a  previous estimate of 2.3%. After an upward revision to Q1 our

U.S. Fed's Kashkari - Fed may need to raise rates

June 26, 2026 3:55 PM UTC

Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari is sounding hawkish but district presidents are more hawkish than other Fed voters.

Economic Data and Events Week Ahead Jun 29 - Jul 3

June 26, 2026 2:45 PM UTC

The week ahead has plenty of notable events, spanning Eurozone inflation on one side, to US payrolls on the other, and with central bank speakers all round - the ECB Sintra conference at the start of the week hears from Lagarde and then a panel that includes Warsh and Bailey.

The Whig History of late-90s Fed Policy

June 26, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

Bessent's approving 1997-Fed anecdote raises eyebrows and debate about its implications
It's important to recall how that era played out however: a sequence of many global events, not a grand vision

U.S. Trimmed Mean and Median PCE Price Indices not as strong as Core PCE

June 26, 2026 7:05 AM UTC

The Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE inflation index, which is reported to be a series favored by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, as well as the Cleveland Fed’s Median PCE price index, look a little less alarming than the Fed’s officially targeted Core PCE price index. This could be used as an argument ag

U.S. Fed's Williams - Monetary policy well positioned

June 25, 2026 7:50 PM UTC

Fed's Williams' tone remains moderate, even with an upward adjustment to his inflation forecast.

U.S. Trimmed Mean and Median PCE Price Indices not as strong as Core PCE

June 25, 2026 6:19 PM UTC

The Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE inflation index, which is reported to be a series favored by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, as well as the Cleveland Fed’s Median PCE price index, look a little less alarming than the Fed’s officially targeted Core PCE price index. This could be used as an argument ag

U.S. Personal Income and Spending, GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and Initial Claims - Mostly firm but consumer spending revised lower

June 25, 2026 1:40 PM UTC

The latest US data is mostly strong, with an upward revision to Q1 GDP, stronger than expected May personal income and spending, still firm core PCE prices, lower initial claims and strength in May durable goods orders outside a fall in transport. However the Q1 GDP revision was mixed, with a signif

June Outlook: Iran War and AI Challenges

June 25, 2026 7:55 AM UTC

Our June Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

Preview: Due July 2 - U.S. June Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - World Cup boost versus underlying slowing

June 25, 2026 7:12 AM UTC

We expect June’s non-farm payroll to rise by 115k overall and by 125k in the private sector, the former a slowing from 172k in May but the latter marginally stronger than May’s 120k increase. We expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3% for a fourth straight month and an in line with trend

Preview: Due June 25 - U.S. May Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform CPI, Savings to fall further

June 24, 2026 1:24 PM UTC

We expect May’s core PCE price index to rise by 0.3%, though probably on the low side of 0.3% before rounding, with overall PCE prices up by 0.4%. We expect a 0.6% increase in personal spending to outperform a 0.3% rise in personal income, extending a recent sharp decline in savings.

Outlook Forecasts to download in Excel

June 24, 2026 10:00 AM UTC

Below is an Excel file that contains our headline forecasts for GDP, Inflation, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rates.

Outlook Overview: Cyclical and Structural Forces

June 24, 2026 7:00 AM UTC

·       The difference between 2nd round inflation effects from higher energy prices and 1st round effects that central banks can look through swings on whether the Straits of Hormuz will remain open in the coming months after the U.S./Iran interim agreement (here). Despite some tensions, we

Preview: Due July 2 - U.S. June Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - World Cup boost versus underlying slowing

June 23, 2026 6:31 PM UTC

We expect June’s non-farm payroll to rise by 115k overall and by 125k in the private sector, the former a slowing from 172k in May but the latter marginally stronger than May’s 120k increase. We expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3% for a fourth straight month and an in line with trend

DM Rates Outlook: Tightening or Easing?

June 23, 2026 8:15 AM UTC

·       With the U.S./Iran interim agreement likely to hold and energy prices softening, our projected consumer slowdown will likely tilt the Fed not to hike in H2 2026 and to actually ease by 50bps in 2027, with 25bps moves in both Q2 and Q3.  With 2yr yields consistent with a hike, the tra

DM and EM FX Outlook: Cross-Currents for H2 and 2027

June 23, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

·       Our baseline for the coming quarters is that global FX is moving through a period of dollar bounce and cross-current positioning adjustment, rather than a clean return to the dollar downtrend. The near-term driver is the market's (over) hawkish reading of the June FOMC/Summary of Econ

U.S. Outlook: Consumers Looking Vulnerable

June 22, 2026 2:17 PM UTC

•    The US economy is showing resilience with strength in investment offsetting a gradual slowing in consumption, though consumer spending, which is running well ahead of real disposable income, looks set to slow further. This is likely to see the economy slow in the second half of 2026 even

Equities Outlook: AI Optimism, But Caution Elsewhere in DM economies

June 22, 2026 7:05 AM UTC

·       In terms of the S&P500, we remain less concerned about high valuations in the tech sector provided AI labs growth remains fast.  12mth fwd information technology are mid-range in the 2020-26 experience rather than at the highs. Even so, heavy equity issuance by tech companies and a s