FX Weekly Strategy Asia 12-16 October

October 9, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

•    USD: CPI and U.S. Treasuries   
•    EUR and The French Budget Debate  
•    CHF, JPY and GBP: different safe havens from 2010-12
•    AUD Underappreciated by FX not Rates

USD Focused on CPI, EUR on 2027 French Budget

October 9, 2026 1:20 PM UTC

•    USD: CPI and U.S. Treasuries   
•    EUR and The French Budget Debate  
•    CHF, JPY and GBP: different safe havens from 2010-12
•    AUD Underappreciated by FX not Rates

October 9, 2026 8:15 AM UTC

·       The AI boom is boosting the U.S. economy through three channels (semiconductor and other product enablers for AI; the data center construction boom and wealth effects boosting consumption for rich households).  If AI labs revenue growth remains fast then the boom can continue through

DM Data Weekly Oct 12-16

October 9, 2026 7:10 AM UTC

US CPI the big data release, key for the Oct FOMC. We see 0.2% for core
In the EZ, the 2027 French budget debate starting October 13 is the major event this week. 
BoE GDP will be of interest ahead of November BOE meeting 

U.S. Fed's Waller - Consistent with message from the minutes

October 8, 2026 12:02 PM UTC

Fed's Waller expects further rate hikes, but not necessarily at consecutive meetings. 

FOMC Minutes: Hawkish but no clear signal on October

October 7, 2026 6:41 PM UTC

FOMC minutes from the September 15-16 meeting show unanimous support for the 25bps tightening that was delivered with increased upside risks to inflation and balanced risk to employment seen. Most participants stressed that another tightening would be likely be appropriate before year end but they e

FOMC Minutes: Hawkish but no clear signal on October

October 7, 2026 6:40 PM UTC

FOMC minutes from the September 15-16 meeting show unanimous support for the 25bps tightening that was delivered with increased upside risks to inflation and balanced risk to employment seen. Most participants stressed that another tightening would be likely be appropriate before year end but they e

New York Fed survey shows near term U.S. inflation expectations higher in September, but stable on a 5-year view

October 7, 2026 3:24 PM UTC

The New York Fed’s inflation expectations survey still shows the 5-year view stable at 3.0%, despite the 1-year view accelerating to 3.9% from 3.6%, reaching its highest since June 2023.

DM Yield Curves and 2yr to Policy Rate Spreads

October 7, 2026 9:45 AM UTC

·       The scale of the September yield rise was driven mainly policy rate tightening ideas and an extra real yield premium.  However, the rise in bond volatility, plus the role of speculative funds appears to have amplified the move.  Moderate or major bond positive news could see a parti

Despite tariffs, US trade deficits increasing and Canadian trade surpluses increasing

October 6, 2026 1:15 PM UTC

A wider than expected August US trade deficit of $105.6bn from $92.8bn contrasts with a wider than expected August Canadian trade surplus of C$4.2bn versus C$0.79bn in July. The US deficit is the largest since the pre-tariff record of $133.0bn in March 2025. Canada’s August surplus is the widest s

Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September Retail Sales - Subdued end to a respectable Q3

October 6, 2026 11:43 AM UTC

We expect September sales to rise by 0.1% overall and by 0.4% ex autos. However the gains will come fully from price-induced gains in gasoline. We expect sales to fall by 0.1% ex autos and gasoline and by 0.3% ex gasoline.

Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September Retail Sales - Subdued end to a respectable Q3

October 6, 2026 11:41 AM UTC

We expect September sales to rise by 0.1% overall and by 0.4% ex autos. However the gains will come fully from price-induced gains in gasoline. We expect sales to fall by 0.1% ex autos and gasoline and by 0.3% ex gasoline.

U.S. September Employment - Trend looking subdued again

October 2, 2026 1:12 PM UTC

September’s non-farm payroll at 23k, 46k private, with negative back revisions, is weaker than expected and returns the picture to near flat after the stronger August. Average hourly earnings are slowing, up only 0.1%, though the rise in unemployment to 4.2% from 4.1% is on a rise in the labor for

Outlook Forecasts to download in Excel

October 2, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

Below is an Excel file that contains our headline forecasts for GDP, Inflation, Monetary Policy Rate, and Exchange Rates.

Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant

October 1, 2026 4:52 PM UTC

We expect September PPI to increase by 0.6% overall led by energy with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This will suggest inflationary pressures remain elevated, with little sign of slowing at the producer level. 

Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Healthy if less strong than August

October 1, 2026 1:06 PM UTC

We expect September’s non-farm payroll to rise by 100k both overall and in the private sector, slower than in August but still implying a healthy trend. We expect a 4.1% unemployment rate for a third straight month but a slightly slower 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and a stable workweek. O

U.S. GDP, Income, Spending and PCE Price revisions mostly encouraging, but Trade Deficit is rising

September 30, 2026 1:51 PM UTC

The final Q2 GDP report and August’s personal income and spending data are notable for historical revisions going back to 2021. The news in the revisions is generally encouraging, with upward revisions to GDP and real disposable income but downward revisions to PCE prices, led by non-market prices

U.S. GDP, Income, Spending and PCE Price revisions mostly encouraging, but Trade Deficit is rising

September 30, 2026 1:51 PM UTC

The final Q2 GDP report and August’s personal income and spending data are notable for historical revisions going back to 2021. The news in the revisions is generally encouraging, with upward revisions to GDP and real disposable income but downward revisions to PCE prices, led by non-market prices

Continuum Economics Calendar October 2026

September 30, 2026 1:00 PM UTC

Data and Events Calendar October 2026.

Preview: Due October 14 - U.S. September CPI - Stronger, but with a slower core rate

September 29, 2026 6:02 PM UTC

We expect a stronger rise of 0.6% in overall CPI in September, but a moderate 0.2% increase ex food and energy. Before rounding we expect the respective gains to be 0.57% and 0.19%. The latter would be a significant slowing from August’s 0.29%, but the former would be the strongest since April.

U.S. Fed's Cook - Expects continued inflation pressure

September 28, 2026 5:42 PM UTC

Governor Cook is another Fed moderate now sounding hawkish. 

FOMC Minutes Preview: Likely to be hawkish, but October decision still data-dependent

September 28, 2026 4:37 PM UTC

The public comments of Fed speakers since the September 16 meeting delivered a unanimous vote to tighten suggest that the minutes of that meeting, due on October 7, will have a hawkish tone. Recent hawkish Fed talk reduces the risk that the proximity of the midterm elections will prevent a tightenin

FOMC Minutes Preview: Likely to be hawkish, but October decision still data-dependent

September 28, 2026 4:36 PM UTC

The public comments of Fed speakers since the September 16 meeting delivered a unanimous vote to tighten suggest that the minutes of that meeting, due on October 7, will have a hawkish tone. Recent hawkish Fed talk reduces the risk that the proximity of the midterm elections will prevent a tightenin

U.S. July Durable Goods Orders - Some loss of momentum in Q3 to date

September 25, 2026 12:53 PM UTC

August durable goods orders are unchanged, a little stronger than expected overall, but the ex transport gain of 0.3% is weaker than expected and even with July revised up to 0.7% from 0.4% Q3 data to data has been slower than Q2’s. 

U.S. Fed's Paulson - May need to do more

September 24, 2026 5:04 PM UTC

Fed's Paulson is another formerly moderate Fed speaker now on board with a more hawkish stance.

September Outlook: Navigation Into 2027

September 24, 2026 1:35 PM UTC

Our September Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

U.S. Fed's Williams - Further tightening this year reasonable

September 24, 2026 1:33 PM UTC

Even the relatively dovish FOMC voters are now sounding quite hawkish.

U.S. Fed's Barr - Now backing more rate hikes

September 23, 2026 5:54 PM UTC

Fed's Barr's is sounding significantly more hawkish than in early September.

Outlook Overview: Navigation Into 2027

September 23, 2026 2:30 PM UTC

·       The hot phase of the Iran war is over, but the intermittent conflict between the U.S. and Iran is stopping shipping via the Straits of Hormuz from fully recovering and keeping energy prices elevated.  Some DM and EM central banks are guarding against 2nd round effects with modest tig

DM Rates Outlook: Long-term challenges, but selective short-term value

September 23, 2026 6:15 AM UTC

*Overweight gilts for 2027, focusing on intermediates. Large ‘policy uncertainty’ premium offers value on any less adverse Middle East scenario.
* Treasuries may offer tactical opportunity into weakness over Q4 2026-Q1 2027, with US10s projected back towards 4½% in respite. Longer term issues re

U.S. Outlook: Growth Overly Dependent on AI

September 22, 2026 1:34 PM UTC

•    The US economy is currently showing signs of acceleration with business investment strong led by AI and consumer spending outperforming real disposable income, in part because of AI-assisted strength in equities. We expect continued strength in business investment though a modest slowing

Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Healthy if less strong than August

September 21, 2026 6:29 PM UTC

We expect September’s non-farm payroll to rise by 100k both overall and in the private sector, slower than in August but still maintaining a healthy trend. We expect a 4.1% unemployment rate for a third straight month but a slightly slower 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and a stable workweek

Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Healthy if less strong than August

September 21, 2026 6:28 PM UTC

We expect September’s non-farm payroll to rise by 100k both overall and in the private sector, slower than in August but still maintaining a healthy trend. We expect a 4.1% unemployment rate for a third straight month but a slightly slower 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and a stable workweek

Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. August Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, watch for revisions

September 18, 2026 5:26 PM UTC

We expect August PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.4% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy. We expect a 0.5% increase in personal income, and a strong 0.9% increase in personal spending. The data should be watched not only for August changes, but also for historical revisions going ba

Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. August Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, watch for revisions

September 18, 2026 5:25 PM UTC

We expect August PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.4% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy. We expect a 0.5% increase in personal income, and a strong 0.9% increase in personal spending. The data should be watched not only for August changes, but also for historical revisions going ba

U.S. August Industrial Production - Surprising dip in manufacturing

September 18, 2026 1:46 PM UTC

August industrial production was unchanged with a very surprising 0.3% decline in manufacturing, its first decline since three straight declines were seen in Q4 of 2025. While one month does not make a trend the manufacturing losses were broad based and thus not easy to dismiss.