FOMC Minutes: Inter-meeting data seen as important

August 19, 2026 6:58 PM UTC

FOMC minutes from July 29 confirm that most participants supported leaving rates steady but several favored a 25bps tightening, implying more than the three hawkish dissenters, presumably non-voting district presidents. Many assessed that tightening would be necessary if inflation did not decline, w

FOMC Minutes: Inter-meeting data seen as important

August 19, 2026 6:56 PM UTC

FOMC minutes from July 29 confirm that most participants supported leaving rates steady but several favored a 25bps tightening, implying more than the three hawkish dissenters, presumably non-voting district presidents. Many assessed that tightening would be necessary if inflation did not decline, w

U.S. July Industrial Production - Healthy excluding a dip in autos

August 18, 2026 1:33 PM UTC

July industrial production with a 0.2% increase was slightly weaker than expected but manufacturing with a 0.2% increase was in line. A 0.4% increase in manufacturing ex autos however hints at some underlying strength.

U.S. July Industrial Production - Healthy excluding a dip in autos

August 18, 2026 1:33 PM UTC

July industrial production with a 0.2% increase was slightly weaker than expected but manufacturing with a 0.2% increase was in line. A 0.4% increase in manufacturing ex autos however hints at some underlying strength.

U.S. July Housing Starts and Permits - Mixed but broader picture near neutral

August 18, 2026 12:51 PM UTC

July housing starts with a 12.4% decline to 1.239m contrast a rise in permits of 5.0% to 1.443m, though the plunge in starts follows a 19.7% rise in June while the rise in permits follows a 2.6% decline in June. Starts remain above May’s level while permits are the strongest since February.

Fresh U.S. Tariff Risks to Canada's Economy are Moderate

August 17, 2026 6:54 PM UTC

The US and Canada are approaching an August 19 deadline for the US to impose 50% tariffs on some Canadian exports. Tense negotiations are to be expected as the deadline approaches but a deal is far from certain. Many in the market may be expecting Trump to back down a few days after announcing the t

From Hanging Chads to Hanging By a Thread – ‘Alternative’ US Election Risk Scenarios

August 17, 2026 9:22 AM UTC

* Without being alarmist, the market arguably needs to factor in the risk that the elections do not proceed smoothly to a clean conclusion. At the moment, there is no risk premia
* The markets hope that the destination is some degree of gridlock and thus reduction in extreme policy (albeit with mixed

Preview: Due August 26 - U.S. July Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, savings finding a base

August 14, 2026 2:42 PM UTC

We expect July PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy. We expect a modest 0.2% increase in personal income, outperforming an unchanged outcome from personal spending.

U.S. July Retail Sales - Fall may reflect acceptance that elevated prices will last for some time

August 14, 2026 12:59 PM UTC

July retail sales have surprised significantly to the downside, -0.6% overall, -0.3% ex auto and even ex autos and gasoline negative at -0.2%. The data follows a surprisingly resilient Q2 from consumer spending contrasting weakness in real disposable income, and hints at a significant loss of moment

U.S. July Retail Sales - Fall may reflect acceptance that elevated prices will last for some time

August 14, 2026 12:59 PM UTC

July retail sales have surprised significantly to the downside, -0.6% overall, -0.3% ex auto and even ex autos and gasoline negative at -0.2%. The data follows a surprisingly resilient Q2 from consumer spending contrasting weakness in real disposable income, and hints at a significant loss of moment

Preview: Due August 14 - U.S. July Retail Sales - Some loss of momentum, but still resilient

August 13, 2026 2:02 PM UTC

We expect June retail sales to unchanged overall, the weakest since a matching January, with a 0.2% increase ex autos, which would reverse a 0.2% June decline. Ex auto and gasoline we expect a second straight 0.4% increase.

U.S. July PPI - Inflationary pressures persist outside corrections in some sectors

August 13, 2026 1:03 PM UTC

Initial claims at 209k from 200k are still low but appear to be normalizing after some very low recent outcomes, which turned out to contradict a weak July non-farm payroll. July PPI looks subdued overall at unchanged and 0.2% ex food and energy, but a 0.4% increase ex food and energy and trade show

U.S. July PPI - Inflationary pressures persist outside corrections in some sectors

August 13, 2026 1:03 PM UTC

Initial claims at 209k from 200k are still low but appear to be normalizing after some very low recent outcomes, which turned out to contradict a weak July non-farm payroll. July PPI looks subdued overall at unchanged and 0.2% ex food and energy, but a 0.4% increase ex food and energy and trade show

U.S. July Budget Deficit largest since March 2021

August 12, 2026 6:33 PM UTC

July’s budget deficit of $432.3bn is the largest since March 2021 when the Biden stimulus was at its peak. The deficit is up from $291.1bn in July 2025, lifted by calendar effects, tariff refunds and defense spending.

Preview: Due August 13 - U.S. July PPI - Prices seen subdued when data was surveyed

August 12, 2026 2:57 PM UTC

We expect July’s PPI to reflect more the more optimistic view of the Middle East seen at the start of the month than the riskier one later in the month. We expect gains of 0.1% overall, 0.3% ex food and energy and 0.2% ex food and trade, mostly subdued, if stronger than respective June outcomes of

U.S. July CPI - On consensus, detail a marginal disappointment

August 12, 2026 1:15 PM UTC

July’s CPI is largely as expected, up 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the latter at 0.215% before rounding only a marginal disappointment, though possibly a little more so in the detail. This does not provide a compelling case for Fed tightening in September, though by that meeting

Big EM Currencies: No U.S. Yield Pressure

August 12, 2026 7:55 AM UTC

·       Our view remains that major EM currencies outlooks are being driven by relative domestic fundamentals versus the U.S.  No major tensions are being seen from rising U.S. Treasury yields and Fed tightening fears. H2 2026 will likely see the choppy EM FX conditions continue against the

Taylor Rules for Uncertain Times

August 11, 2026 2:44 PM UTC

* The Fed’s rate puzzle has three awkward-shaped pieces: which inflation measure to trust, how much slack remains, and where r* now sits.
* Taylor rules may be deeply unfashionable, but they force those hidden assumptions into the open.
* Change only the inflation measure and the same rule can make

Preview: Due August 12 - U.S. July CPI - Another subdued month, if less so than June

August 11, 2026 12:50 PM UTC

We expect a subdued July CPI, up by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being only 0.06% and 0.19%. This will however be less weak than June’s 0.4% decline overall, with the June core rate ex food and energy having been unchanged.

Preview: Due August 12 - U.S. July CPI - Another subdued month, if less so than June

August 11, 2026 12:49 PM UTC

We expect a subdued July CPI, up by 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being only 0.06% and 0.19%. This will however be less weak than June’s 0.4% decline overall, with the June core rate ex food and energy having been unchanged.

FOMC Minutes Preview: Hawks, Doves and Data-Dependents

August 10, 2026 2:49 PM UTC

FOMC minutes from July 29 are due on August 19 and will get extra attention with Chairman Warsh not having given a clear explanation of the decision to leave rates unchanged, after a meeting which saw three dissenting votes for tightening. The minutes may suggest that several in the majority could b

Preview: Due August 11 - U.S. July Existing Home Sales - Surveys suggest slippage

August 10, 2026 1:20 PM UTC

We expect July existing home sales to see a second straight monthly fall, by 1.5% to 4.03m, as fears that the next Fed move is likely to be a hike pick up, while remaining in the year to date range.

Slicing and dicing US inflation – why different measures are at the centre of Fed debate

August 10, 2026 1:01 PM UTC

* Wide divergence of US inflation measures becoming increasingly material to policy debate and sets the unusual statistical backdrop to the next CPI release
* Reflects many of the divergent opinions over AI, ‘relative price adjustment’ vs generalised inflation, temporary vs persistent overshoot.

Taiwan: China Coastguard Quarantine Risks Grow

August 10, 2026 7:55 AM UTC

·       Given China’s coastguard recent actions, we now raise the probability of a full quarantine of Taiwan shipping to 20% versus 10-15% in 2027/28 (Figure 2), with the probability of some further measures beyond radio requests now above 50% in 2027/28 and in our baseline. Quarantine meas

U.S. July Employment - Softer payroll and falling unemployment hint at labor shortages, but no lift to earnings

August 7, 2026 1:21 PM UTC

July’s non-farm payroll at -23k with negative back month revisions is weaker than expected but largely because of negatives in government led by local government education and leisure and hospitality, which may reflect labor shortages. A declining labor force saw the unemployment rate fall, to 4.1

U.S. July Employment - Softer payroll and falling unemployment hint at labor shortages, but no lift to earnings

August 7, 2026 1:20 PM UTC

July’s non-farm payroll at -23k with negative back month revisions is weaker than expected but largely because of negatives in government led by local government education and leisure and hospitality, which may reflect labor shortages. A declining labor force saw the unemployment rate fall, to 4.1

Preview: Due August 7 - U.S. July Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than June, but with a rise in unemployment

August 6, 2026 1:27 PM UTC

We expect July’s non-farm payroll to rise by 120k overall and by 110k in the private sector, a significant improvement from June’s respective gains of 57k and 49k but largely explained by a recovery in leisure and hospitality. We expect unemployment to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, reversing a June de

Preview: Due August 7 - U.S. July Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than June, but with a rise in unemployment

August 6, 2026 1:27 PM UTC

We expect July’s non-farm payroll to rise by 120k overall and by 110k in the private sector, a significant improvement from June’s respective gains of 57k and 49k but largely explained by a recovery in leisure and hospitality. We expect unemployment to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, reversing a June de

Preview: Due August 14 - U.S. July Retail Sales - Some loss of momentum, but still resilient

August 5, 2026 3:46 PM UTC

We expect June retail sales to unchanged overall, the weakest since a matching January, with a 0.2% increase ex autos, which would reverse a 0.2% June decline. Ex auto and gasoline we expect a second straight 0.4% increase.

Preview: Due August 14 - U.S. July Retail Sales - Some loss of momentum, but still resilient

August 5, 2026 3:46 PM UTC

We expect June retail sales to unchanged overall, the weakest since a matching January, with a 0.2% increase ex autos, which would reverse a 0.2% June decline. Ex auto and gasoline we expect a second straight 0.4% increase.

US Payrolls ‘breakevens’: Why zero is the new 200

August 5, 2026 3:22 PM UTC

AI Equities: Correction/Consolidation?

August 5, 2026 7:40 AM UTC

•    Overall, we feel that recent movements have been a correction/consolidation in the AI equity story.  AI specific revenue growth still remains healthy and will support multi-year plans over cloud computing growth and in turn semiconductor demand.  Even so, slowing free cash flows and ove

U.S. Trade Deficit corrects lower in June but remains wider in Q2

August 4, 2026 12:57 PM UTC

June’s trade deficit of $73.3bn is in line with expectations and down from $77.6bn in May though still well above deficits of near $55bn in each month from January through April. This confirms a significant negative from net exports in Q2 GDP.

Fed SLOOS on Bank Lending shows stronger demand for C+I loans

August 3, 2026 6:27 PM UTC

The Fed’s July Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey of bank lending practices suggests a positive picture for commercial and industrial loans, particularly for large firms, presumably led by AI, though elsewhere the survey presents a less impressive picture.