U.S. Fed's Goolsbee - Not on path to 2% inflation

February 13, 2026 8:38 PM UTC

Fed's Goolsbee remains wary of inflation risks after January's CPI

U.S. January CPI - Yr/yr ex food and energy pace slowest since March 2021

February 13, 2026 2:18 PM UTC

January CPI is slightly lower than expected at 0.2% overall though the ex food and energy rate at 0.3% is on consensus, with the core rate almost spot on 0.3% even before rounding. Given a strong year ago rise, yr/yr growth slowed, overall to 2.4% from 2.7% and the core to 2.5% from 2.6%, the latter

Preview: Due February 20 - U.S. Q4 GDP - GDP and Core PCE Prices both seen at 2.6%

February 12, 2026 4:48 PM UTC

We expect a 2.6% annualized increase in Q4 GDP, well above a flat forecast we had entering the quarter, but off a peak estimate of 3.6%, with weaker November trade and December retail sales data having trimmed the forecast. December trade data, due on February 19, remains a significant source of unc

U.S. Initial Claims remain inflated by weather, but February payroll likely to be weaker than January's

February 12, 2026 1:48 PM UTC

Initial claims at 227k are down from 232k but still higher than expected and higher than the seven preceding weeks. We suspect weather is playing a part in the recent upturn in initial claims, though the data suggests that February’s payroll will not be as strong as January’s.

Preview: Due February 13 - U.S. January CPI - A stronger month but slower yr/yr

February 12, 2026 1:13 PM UTC

We expect a 0.2% increase in January’s CPI, with a 0.3% rise ex food and energy, though risks are to the upside with our forecasts before rounding being for gains of 0.24% overall and 0.34% ex food and energy. The latter would be the strongest since August. 

Cuba: Pressure Grows

February 12, 2026 8:05 AM UTC

·       The Donroe doctrine has pressured Mexico into halting oil exports to Cuba, which is intensifying pressure on Cuba’s regime.  While chaos and attempted mass immigration is a risk, the baseline is for a negotiated deal as U.S./Cuba discussions deepen – though with the added complex

U.S. Fed's Schmid - Staying hawkish

February 11, 2026 3:22 PM UTC

Fed's Schmid, who dissented against October and December easings, remains hawkish, but will not vote this year. 

U.S. January Employment - Stronger across the board, will keep Fed in no hurry to ease

February 11, 2026 2:21 PM UTC

January’s non-non-farm payroll at 130k is significantly stronger than expected and even more so in the private sector at 172k. An above trend 0.4% rise in average hourly earnings, a rise in the workweek to 34.3 from 34.2 hours and a fall in unemployment to 4.3% from 4.4% leave the data as stronger

February 10, 2026 2:30 PM UTC

We expect January’s non-farm payroll to rise by 85k overall and by 80k in the private sector, which would be on the firm side of trend and could be even more so after what could be substantial negative historical revisions. However, we expect unemployment to rise to 4.5% from 4.4%. We expect avera

U.S. December Retail Sales and Q4 Employment Cost Index show fading momentum

February 10, 2026 2:03 PM UTC

December retail sales are weaker than expected, unchanged overall, ex autos and ex autos and gasoline. This could be a sign of consumer spending losing momentum in response to real disposable income coming in near flat in both Q3 and probably Q4, given limited employment growth and resilient inflati

EUR/USD: Europe’s Counter Threats to Trump

February 10, 2026 11:05 AM UTC

·       Europe is highly unlikely to weaponize its existing portfolio holdings or new flows into the U.S., as Europe is dependent on the U.S. nuclear umbrella and as EZ/EU decision making is slow and modest in action.  Such a move would be strongly opposed by EZ/European investors. Even so,

Preview: Due February 10 - U.S. Q4 Employment Cost Index - Maintaining trend

February 9, 2026 2:24 PM UTC

We look for the Q4 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.9%, slightly firmer than the 0.8% seen in Q3 but matching the gains of Q1 and Q2, as well as Q4 2024. 

Preview: Due February 10 - U.S. December Retail Sales - Maintaining momentum

February 9, 2026 2:18 PM UTC

We expect retail sales to maintain momentum in December, rising by 0.6% overall and by 0.5% ex auto, both matching their November increases. Ex autos and gasoline we expect a 0.5% increase, a modest pick-up from two straight gains of 0.4%.

U.S. Initial Claims rise may be weather-related, but layoff announcements higher in January

February 5, 2026 1:44 PM UTC

Initial claims at 231 from 209k are higher than expected and the highest since December 6. Bad weather may have contributed to the increase, The latest week comes two weeks after January’s non-farm payroll was surveyed.

Preview: Due February 13 (revised date) - U.S. January CPI - A stronger month but slower yr/yr

February 4, 2026 6:31 PM UTC

We expect a 0.2% increase in January’s CPI, with a 0.3% rise ex food and energy, though risks are to the upside with our forecasts before rounding being for gains of 0.24% overall and 0.34% ex food and energy. The latter would be the strongest since August.

February 4, 2026 5:46 PM UTC

We expect January’s non-farm payroll to rise by 85k overall and by 80k in the private sector, which would be on the firm side of trend and could be even more so after what could be substantial negative historical revisions. However, we expect unemployment to rise to 4.5% from 4.4%. We expect avera

Preview: Due February 10 - U.S. December Retail Sales - Maintaining momentum

February 4, 2026 5:15 PM UTC

We expect retail sales to maintain momentum in December, rising by 0.6% overall and by 0.5% ex auto, both matching their November increases. Ex autos and gasoline we expect a 0.5% increase, a modest pick-up from two straight gains of 0.4%.

U.S. Inflows: Portfolio Dominates

February 4, 2026 12:05 PM UTC

·        Portfolio flows have dominated U.S. C/A financing looking at the breakdown of the balance of payment data (BOP), with no material slowdown in 2025 from foreign investors. U.S. investors did accelerate buying of overseas equities but this was counterbalanced by slower U.S. buying of

U.S. Fed's Barkin - Looking to complete job on inflation

February 3, 2026 1:49 PM UTC

Fed's Barkin's tone is moderate, hinting at openness towards easing, if not urgency. 

Europe Nuclear Weapons; NATO and Greenland

February 3, 2026 11:05 AM UTC

·        Without the U.S. nuclear weapon umbrella, Europe’s nuclear deterrent is too weak. Secondly, European countries are highly reliant on U.S. missile defense, command, intelligence and reconnaissance, which military experts estimate could take 10 years to replace. Major European count

Preview: Due February 10 (government shutdown may delay) - U.S. Q4 Employment Cost Index - Maintaining trend

February 2, 2026 8:03 PM UTC

We look for the Q4 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.9%, slightly firmer than the 0.8% seen in Q3 but matching the gains of Q1 and Q2, as well as Q4 2024. 

Preview: Due February 11 (government shutdown may delay) - U.S. January CPI - A stronger month but slower yr/yr

February 2, 2026 7:20 PM UTC

We expect a 0.2% increase in January’s CPI, with a 0.3% rise ex food and energy, though risks are to the upside with our forecasts before rounding being for gains of 0.24% overall and 0.34% ex food and energy. The latter would be the strongest since August.

Markets: Profit-Taking or More?

February 2, 2026 9:22 AM UTC

•    For now we see some further profit-taking on risky positions in gold/silver/copper/equities and short USD positions.  However, a bigger macro catalyst is required to produce a deep correction in equities and major risk off.  The nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed chair is unlikely to be

Kevin Warsh Nominated for U.S. FOMC Chair

January 30, 2026 4:13 PM UTC

In October we ranked the five candidates for Fed Chair, putting Trump’s choice, Former Governor Kevin Warsh, in third place, behind current Governors Waller and Bowman but ahead of outsiders Hassett and Rieder. A muted market reaction suggests the market is neither elated nor dejected by the decis

U.S. Fed's Bostic and Waller give contrasting views on the labor market and policy

January 30, 2026 2:35 PM UTC

Fed's Waller justifies his dovish dissent on labor market risks. Bostic however sees reduced labor market risks, and that seems to be the majority view on the FOMC. 

U.S. Q4 GDP now seen at 3.1% rather than 3.6% after wider November trade deficit

January 29, 2026 6:58 PM UTC

Following today’s wider trade deficit for October, the Atlanta Fed has revised its Q4 GDP estimate down to 4.24% from 5.4%. We have revised our estimate to 3.1% from 3.6%. We are assuming a December deficit only marginally narrower than November’s, and significantly wider than October’s. 

January 29, 2026 4:23 PM UTC

We expect January’s non-farm payroll to rise by 85k overall and by 80k in the private sector, which would be on the firm side of trend and could be even more so after what could be substantial negative historical revisions. However, we expect unemployment to rise to 4.5% from 4.4%. We expect avera

FOMC Pauses With Risks Seen Diminished

January 28, 2026 8:33 PM UTC

The FOMC has left rates unchanged at 3.5-3.75% as expected, with two dissents for a 25bps easing. The statement takes a slightly more optimistic view of the economy than the last one in December. We continue to expect two 25bps easings this year, coming in June and September.

U.S. Fed's Powell - Risks on both sides have diminished

January 28, 2026 7:54 PM UTC

Fed's Powell does not sound in a hurry to ease, but suggests rates can fall once the tariff impact on inflation fades.

FOMC leaves rates unchanged, more positive on economy, two dovish dissents

January 28, 2026 7:20 PM UTC

The FOMC has left rates unchanged at 3.5-3.75% as expected, with two dissents for a 25bps easing, from Miran, as was widely expected, and Waller, which was less so. The statement takes a slightly more optimistic view of the economy than the last one in December.

Trump’s Problems

January 28, 2026 8:35 AM UTC

Overall, the Trump administration’s hyperactive start to 2026 is unlikely to achieve success on the number one issue for voters in the shape of cost of living concerns.  Meanwhile ICE’s immigration tactics in Minnesota are causing concerns among swing voters, though Trump geopolitical adventuri

U.S. Trump - Not concerned about the USD decline

January 27, 2026 9:01 PM UTC

Trump, seeking to boost US export competitiveness, has encouraged USD sellers, but the comments carry risks for inflation. 

USD Hurt by Hedging More than Asset Outflows

January 27, 2026 10:53 AM UTC

The Greenland drama  and fears of BOJ/Fed Intervention on USDJPY has put the USD under renewed downward pressure against DM Currencies.  What happens next?  Overall, we see scope for further USD decline versus DM currencies in 2026 on more currency hedging; some diversification away from the U.S.

U.S. Q4 GDP now seen at 3.6% supported by consumer spending and net exports

January 26, 2026 5:38 PM UTC

It now looks clear that Q4 GDP is going to be significantly stronger than the flat outcome we expected in the quarterly outlook, with our calculation now at 3.6% annualized. Domestic demand appears to have maintained momentum with the main uncertainty being to what extent the trade balance can susta

FOMC Preview for January 28: No change with early 2026 data awaited

January 22, 2026 6:42 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on January 28 and rates look set to be left at 3.5-3.75%, and while rates are likely to move lower in 2026, they are unlikely to give many hints over what is likely in March, with future decisions dependent on data. The FOMC will not update its economic forecasts or dots at this meeti

U.S. Personal Income underperforming Spending, Core PCE Prices maintaining trend

January 22, 2026 3:31 PM UTC

The personal income and spending report for both October and November has been released and shows healthy spending, up by 0.5% in each month outperforming income which rise by 0.1% in October and 0.3% in November. PCE prices, both overall and core, rise by 0.2% in each month, modest, but stronger th

U.S. Trump - Greenland TACO

January 21, 2026 7:47 PM UTC

Trump, after backing away from using force, has now backed off the tariffs threatened on eight European nations over Greenland, lifting bonds and equities further..