U.S. Fed's Logan - Wasn't convinced inflation falling enough even before war

April 2, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

Fed's Logan, a hawkish voter, had concerns on prices even before the war started.

Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. March Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - A boost from returning strikers, but trend subdued

April 2, 2026 1:57 PM UTC

We now expect March’s non-farm payroll to rise by 50k overall and by 60k in the private sector, both revised up by 30k due to the ending of strikes, largely in health, as shown in Friday’s strike report.  This is still consistent with a subdued labor market picture, which a rise in unemployment

U.S. February trade shows gains in both exports and imports, Initial Claims very low

April 2, 2026 1:18 PM UTC

The latest US data suggests a resilient economy ahead of the oil shock, with a narrower than expected February trade deficit of $57.3bn, and while up from $54.7bn in January shows strong rises in both experts and imports, by 4.2% and 4.3% respectively. Weekly initial claims at 202k from 211k are sur

Preview: Due April 10 - U.S. March CPI - Energy to surge, but core rate seen similar to February

April 1, 2026 7:26 PM UTC

We expect March CPI to surge by 1.0% overall, which would be the strongest rise since June 2022, seen in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However we expect only a moderate increase ex food and energy, of 0.22% before rounding, which would match that seen in February.

U.S. February Retail Sales and March ADP Employment resilient, but gasoline prices may undermine consumers

April 1, 2026 1:10 PM UTC

March’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 62k is stronger than the market expected and similar to February’s 66k. February retail sales are also marginally firmer than expected, up by 0.6% overall, 0.5% ex autos and 0l;4% ex autos and gasoline.  In March consumers will be dealing

Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. March Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Forecast revised up on returning strikers, but still implying a subdued trend

March 31, 2026 5:56 PM UTC

We now expect March’s non-farm payroll to rise by 50k overall and by 60k in the private sector, both revised up by 30k due to the ending of strikes, largely in health, as shown in Friday’s strike report.  This is still consistent with a subdued labor market picture, which a rise in unemployment

U.S. Fed's Schmid - Fears inflation could remain near 3%

March 31, 2026 5:19 PM UTC

Fed's Schmid is taking a hawkish view of the oil price risks, but has no vote this year.

Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. February Retail Sales - Autos and gasoline to rise, trend now subdued

March 31, 2026 12:50 PM UTC

We expect February retail sales to see a modest bounce of 0.4% after a 0.2% decline in January, with sales ex auto increasing by 0.3% after two straight unchanged months. Ex autos and gasoline however we expect a rise of only 0.2%, down from 0.3% in January, keeping trend subdued.

Iran War: Invasion Risks

March 31, 2026 10:55 AM UTC

·       Any ground-based invasion would likely result in a long war and Iran would likely counter with attacks on energy or other key facilities around the Gulf.  Sea and air based invasions are also difficult, while any victory would likely be followed by occupation.  WTI oil prices would

U.S. Fed's Powell - No hurry to move rates, Comfortable with balance sheet

March 30, 2026 3:01 PM UTC

Fed's Powell is no hurry to tighten in response to the energy price shock, and has a different view on the balance sheet to Warsh.

Markets: Short vs Long Iran War

March 30, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

·       For a 4-8 week war and 3-4 quarters of energy price normalisation, we see a 10% U.S. equity market correction in H1 2026 driven by the current Iran war and/or consumption slowing due to lower (real) wage growth, alongside still stretched valuations in equity and equity-bond terms.  T

Continuum Economics Calendar April 2026

March 27, 2026 2:30 PM UTC

Data and Events Calendar April 2026.

U.S. Initial Claims rise but still low, Continued Claims fall but trend fairly stable

March 26, 2026 12:52 PM UTC

Initial claims are as expected at 210k, up by 5k from last week’s 9-week low. Continued claims at 1.819m are lower than expected, down by 32k and the lowest since September 2024, though trend remains fairly stable.

Outlook Forecasts to download in Excel

March 26, 2026 12:10 PM UTC

Below is an Excel file that contains our headline forecasts for GDP, Inflation, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rates.

March Outlook: Iran War and AI Challenges

March 26, 2026 7:17 AM UTC

Our March Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

Preview: Due April 2 - U.S. February Trade Balance - Volatility continuing, deficit to bounce after January decline

March 25, 2026 2:49 PM UTC

We expect the US trade balance to continue to show volatility in February, with a deficit of $68.0bn, up from $54.5bn in January but below December’s $72.9bn. The deficit would remain slightly below where trend was running in 2024, around $75.0bn per month, before a pre-tariff surge and a post-tar

DM FX Outlook: The Rest of 2026

March 25, 2026 7:55 AM UTC

Our baseline is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 and USD60 by Q3 2027. This should see the USD return to a weaker profile later in the year. In our December Outlook, our favorites were the AUD and NOK based on yield spreads, but it is also worth noting th

Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. March Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Back to subdued trend after strong January and weak February

March 24, 2026 6:33 PM UTC

We expect March’s non-farm payroll to rise by a marginal 20k overall and by 30k in the private sector, returning to a subdued trend after a strong January increase was mostly reversed in February. A rise in unemployment to 4.5% from 4.4% and a slower 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings would

U.S. Outlook: Investment to Lead Growth, Underlying Inflation Set to Slow

March 24, 2026 12:15 PM UTC

•    The crisis in the Middle East poses upside risks to headline inflation and downside risks to activity and our baseline assumes a 4-8 week war with a partial reversal of energy prices by end Q2 (here). Our forecasts (below) include a soft patch in H2 2026. Entering 2026 however, the U.S. e

DM Rates Outlook: Mixed Policy Rate and Yield Paths

March 24, 2026 8:46 AM UTC

·        The multi quarter outlook for DM rates depends on the length of the Iran war Our baseline is that it will be a 4-8 week war (here) and a 3-4 quarter retracement of oil prices back to pre-war levels – longer from Europe and Asian gas prices. We forecast WTI down to USD80-85 by June

Outlook Overview: Iran War and AI Challenges

March 23, 2026 4:39 PM UTC

·       The Iran war macro impact depends on length of the conflict and impact on energy flows. Our baseline is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end December and USD60 by Q3 2027 (here).  The jump in oil and gas prices mean at least a temporary increase in

Equities Outlook: Navigating Cyclical and Structural Forces

March 23, 2026 4:15 PM UTC

·        For global equities, our baseline (here) is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end 2026 by June and USD60 by Q3 2027.  A fragile situation will mean it will take until 2027 for energy prices to return to pre-war levels. On a multi-quarter basis thi

Iran War Scenarios Updated

March 23, 2026 3:04 PM UTC

·       Our central scenario remains a 4-8 week war in Iran. Trump’s loathing of long wars and high gasoline prices will likely prompts the U.S. to declare victory.  A formal ceasefire is unlikely, but the end of hostilities could see an informal understanding of the Straits of Hormuz for

Preview: Due April 1 - U.S. February Retail Sales - Autos and gasoline to rise, trend now subdued

March 20, 2026 5:30 PM UTC

We expect February retail sales to see a modest bounce of 0.4% after a 0.2% decline in January, with sales ex auto increasing by 0.3% after two straight unchanged months. Ex autos and gasoline however we expect a rise of only 0.2%, down from 0.3% in January, keeping trend subdued.

U.S. Initial Claims low, Philly Fed stronger, but full impact of energy shock still to be felt

March 19, 2026 12:57 PM UTC

The latest US data is stronger than expected, initial claims at 205k from 213k reaching a 9-week low in the survey week for March’s non-farm payroll, and March’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of 18.1 from 16.3 at a 6-month high. The full impact of the Middle East conflict however is however yet

Fed: Leave Door Open To Cut, But

March 18, 2026 7:37 PM UTC

·        Bottom line: The FOMC dots still pointed towards further rate cuts and Powell left the door open – noting it was too early to make judgement on the economic effects of the Iran war.  We feel that the Fed is too optimistic about consumption and thus GDP, given that employment grow

U.S. Fed's Powell - Need progress on tariff-led goods inflation

March 18, 2026 6:49 PM UTC

Fed's Powell is focused on inflation concerns that existed before the energy shock, with the impact of the latter still unclear.

FOMC - No change in rates or median dots but more positive on GDP

March 18, 2026 6:24 PM UTC

The FOMC has left rates unchanged as expected with limited changes to the statement other than to note uncertainty arising from the Middle East with no change in the median dots for 2026, 2027 and 2028. However the FOMC has made upgrades to its growth projections, which can be seen as somewhat hawki

U.S. Private Credit: One To Watch Rather than Systemic Issue

March 17, 2026 10:29 AM UTC

While the U.S. private credit sector could face further problems in 2026/27 (due to the lagged impact of the end of ultra-low rates in 2021-23), this appears to be a sectoral issue.  U.S. banks equity capital and funding are robust enough to weather a further deterioration, though some corporates c

U.S. Q4 GDP revised down, Savings revised up, Core PCE Prices make a strong start to 2026

March 13, 2026 1:31 PM UTC

The latest US data is mostly on the weak side of expectations, most notably a broad based downward revision to Q4 GDP to 0.7% from 1.4%. January personal income, personal spending and core PCE prices all rose by 0.4%, net close to expectations, though upward revisions to savings reduce downside cons

Trump Visit To China: Trade/Taiwan and Iran

March 12, 2026 11:37 AM UTC

•    The main success of Trump’s visit will be on trade, where an extension of October trade truce is likely.  China wants to avoid section 301 tariffs that could increase the current effective tariff of 25% and the U.S. will turn the whole visit into a PR victory for Trump to deflect from

FOMC Preview for March 18: Little change seen in either statement or dots

March 11, 2026 3:37 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on March 18 with rates likely to be left unchanged at 3.5-3.75%. The dots will be updated but we expect them to remain where they were in December, looking for one 25bps easing in 2026 and one more in 2027. The economic forecasts are likely to see only modest changes from September, w

U.S. February CPI - Core rate has slowed, but inflation not yet defeated

March 11, 2026 1:00 PM UTC

February CPI is in line with expectations at 0.3% overall, 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being 0.267% and a reasonably subdued 0.216%. Yr/yr rates are unchanged at 2.4% overall and 2.5% ex food and energy. The data is not alarming but inflationary pressures remai

Iran War Scenarios

March 11, 2026 9:45 AM UTC

·        Our central scenario (75%) remains a multi-week war in Iran. Trump loathing of long wars and high gasoline prices prompts U.S. to declare victory before end of March.  Israel and Iran would most likely agree an effective ceasefire.  The ceasefire would be fragile, however, as it w

Preview: Due March 11 - U.S. February CPI - A moderate gain, but inflation not yet defeated

March 10, 2026 12:15 PM UTC

We expect February’s CPI to increase by 0.3%, with a 0.2% increase ex food and energy.  Before rounding we expect the gains will be similar, with the overall CPI rounded up from 0.26% and the core rounded down from 0.24%.  CPI has slowed, but it is too soon for the Fed to declare victory.

Trump’s Fiscal Dominance

March 10, 2026 10:35 AM UTC

·       Voting will be done by 12 FOMC members and while Kevin Warsh could mellow some centrists, 5 district Fed presidents and Barr/Jefferson are at the Fed until at least 2031. Warsh may merely bring interest rate cuts sooner from June or potentially engineer a small dip below the 3% neutra

Gulf Countries U.S. Investment Deals Risks

March 9, 2026 8:05 AM UTC

·       Lower budget revenue and a multi-year hit to tourism and the Gulf role as air transit hubs, could see delays and reduction in some parts of the Gulf states USD3.4 trillion deals with the Trump administration. The economic effects on the U.S. would likely be small and the geopolitics b