U.S. Fed's Hammack - Jobs data mixed, inflation too high

November 20, 2025 3:30 PM UTC

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack remains hawkish on inflation.

U.S. September Employment - Case for a December easing looks a little weaker

November 20, 2025 2:04 PM UTC

September’s non-farm payroll will be the last released before the December 10 FOMC meeting and is surprisingly firm at 119k, albeit with 33k in negative revisions. A rise in unemployment to 4.4% from 4.3% and a 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings provide only marginal offsets to the headline. Nov

FOMC Minutes from October 29 and data postponements reinforce doubts over a December move

November 19, 2025 8:03 PM UTC

FOMC minutes from October 29 state that participants expressed strongly differing views over what policy decision would be appropriate in December. With the Labor Department today announcing that the forthcoming non-farm payroll for September will be the last before the December 10 FOMC meeting, the

November 19, 2025 2:38 PM UTC

We expect September’s non-farm payroll, delayed from October 3, to show another subdued rise,  of 45k, with 50k in the private sector, but marginally stronger than July’s respective gains of 22k and 38k. We expect unemployment to slip to 4.2% from 4.3% on a fall in the labor force, while averag

U.S. August trade deficit slips back after bounce in July, still in correction from inflated pre-tariff deficits

November 19, 2025 2:00 PM UTC

August’s delayed trade deficit of $59.55bn is narrower than expected, down significantly from July’s $78.5bn, but still marginally above June’s $59.09bn. Despite July’s bounce, the deficit remains in a correction from the inflated pre-tariff levels of Q1 which saw a record deficit of $136.42

U.S. Fed's Barkin - Hints easing may have limited benefits

November 18, 2025 7:31 PM UTC

Fed's Barkin appears concerned about supply problems which Fed easing can do little to solve.

Markets 2026

November 18, 2025 10:30 AM UTC

·        The Fed, ECB and BOE will likely drive further 10-2yr government bond yield curve steepening, with 10yr Bund yields rising due to ECB QT and German fiscal expansion. 10yr JGB yields are set to surge through 2%, as BOJ QT remains excessive and underestimated.  The BOJ could partiall

Financial Stability Risks: Vulnerable To A Recession

November 17, 2025 1:00 PM UTC

The November Fed financial stability review highlights continued concern over hedge funds and insurance company leverage, while the IMF GSFR is concerned about U.S. equity market overvaluation and growing links between banks and non-bank financial intermediaries.  However, the main adverse shock wo

FOMC Minutes from October 29 to reinforce doubts over a December move

November 14, 2025 4:13 PM UTC

FOMC minutes from October 29 are due on November 19, and will be closely watched after Chairman Powell after the meeting stated there were strongly differing opinions on December. The minutes are likely to suggest that a December easing, which Powell on October 29 stated was far from assured, is lik

U.S. Fed's Schmid - Rationale for October dissent continues to guide me

November 14, 2025 3:22 PM UTC

Fed's Schmid, who dissented against October's ease, looks set to oppose any such move in Decemeber. 

U.S. Fed's Daly - Undecided about December

November 13, 2025 2:15 PM UTC

While one of the more dovish Fed district presidents, Fed's Daly's seems to have only a marginal leaning towards a December easing.

Japan/China Tensions Over Taiwan

November 13, 2025 10:45 AM UTC

China wants to make Japan cautious about helping the U.S. in future military scenarios.  With PM Takaichi tougher stance, China could decide to escalate tensions to reduce the risk of Japan becoming involved in future years.  This could be restrictions of some critical minerals from China to Japan

U.S. Fed's Bostic now favors keeping rates steady until progress on inflation clear

November 12, 2025 5:35 PM UTC

Fed's Bostic will not vote again on the FOMC before retiring in February, but has taken a more hawkish tone in his latest comments.

U.S. Supreme Court Threat to Trump Tariffs

November 12, 2025 1:44 PM UTC

Hearings at the U.S. Supreme Court over the legality of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs suggests that at least a partial ruling against the tariffs is likely, probably before the end of the year, though there is no date set for the decision.  Over half of Trump’s tariffs are threatened by the case b

U.S. Fed's Jefferson - Fed should proceed cautiously as approach neutral

November 7, 2025 2:29 PM UTC

Comments from Fed's Jefferson earlier today suggest the Fed mainstream is approaching December's meeting with an open mind.

U.S. Trump - Showing concern over Supreme Court tariff case

November 6, 2025 7:27 PM UTC

Yesterday's Supreme Court hearings raised the risk that they could rule against Trump's tariffs. Markets may broadly welcome any such ruling but any lost revenues would add to the budget deficit.

U.S. Equities: Smaller Correction But Still Overvalued

November 6, 2025 10:25 AM UTC

·       We are revising up our end 2025 S&P500 forecast from 6000 to 6500 for a number of reasons. Private sector data shows the risk of a U.S. hard landing is lower than a couple of months ago, with economic data more consistent with a soft landing.  Additionally, the tech/AI optimism has n

Japan: Not Abenomics 2

November 5, 2025 10:30 AM UTC

·       While some fiscal stimulus into 2026 is likely from the new PM Takaichi, this is unlikely to be aggressive given the JGB supply pressures and the need for support from other parties in passing fiscal measures.  A return to QE (2nd arrow of Abenomics) is highly unlikely, with the BOJ

Preview: U.S. October CPI - An important number that may never be seen

November 4, 2025 3:59 PM UTC

October US CPI, while scheduled on November 13, may never be released even if the government  shutdown is resolved, given lack of data collection during the month of October. However what the number would have been does matter. Our forecast is for a 0.2% increase overall, with a 0.3% rise ex food a

U.S. Treasuries: Waiting for Data and Yield Curve Steepening

November 4, 2025 1:57 PM UTC

•    Multi quarter we still look for 75bps of further Fed easing by end 2026, which will likely initially bring 2yr yields down to 3.4%.  However, once the Fed Funds rate get closer to 3.0-3.25% and the slowdown turns into a soft landing, the 2yr will likely move to a premium versus Fed Funds

China: Fiscal Stimulus Modest Rather than Large?

November 3, 2025 9:07 AM UTC

•    Overall, we see around a Yuan2.0-2.5trn fiscal stimulus for 2026 and some of this could be announced in December but the majority in March 2026.  This reflects the fiscal constraints on China authorities; the targeted focus in the 2026-31 five year plan and reluctance to spending on hous

Continuum Economics Calendar November 2025

October 31, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar November 2025.

U.S./China Trade Framework: Avoiding Escalation

October 31, 2025 7:48 AM UTC

·         The U.S./China framework deal avoids renewed escalation of trade tension, but is unlikely to be followed by a comprehensive trade deal in 2026 as China does not want major import and bilateral trade commitments.  The economic effects will likely be small and the deal main aim app

FOMC - Strong Differences of Opinion Leave December Decision Dependent on Incoming Information

October 29, 2025 7:58 PM UTC

After a statement that contained no major surprises, the highlight of FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference was his comment that there were strong differences on policy going forward, and that a December ease was far from assured. While we still feel that on balance easing in December is

U.S. Fed's Powell - December move far from sure

October 29, 2025 6:54 PM UTC

Fed's Powell has noted strong differences on future policy at the FOMC, casting some doubt on a December easing

FOMC eases by 25bps, to conclude quantitative tightening on December 1

October 29, 2025 6:21 PM UTC

The FOMC has eased rates by 25bps to a 3.75%-4.00% range as expected and decided to conclude the reduction of its securities holdings on December 1 as Chairman Powell had hinted at on October 14. There were two dissents, Governor Miran favoring a 50bps move and Kansas City Fed’s Schmid delivering

U.S-China Trade Tensions Ease, US-Canada Tensions Escalate

October 27, 2025 3:32 PM UTC

Trade tensions between the US and China appear to be easing, with it looking increasingly unlikely that the US will impose a threatened extra 100% tariff on China on November 1. However trade tensions with Canada have increased, with Canada receiving an extra 10% tariff, adding to downside economic

FOMC Preview for October 29: 25bps Easing but Little Forward Guidance

October 24, 2025 3:49 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on October 29 and a 25bps easing to 3.75%-4.0% looks likely, particularly after September’s CPI came in on the low side of expectations.  The statement is however still likely to express concerns over inflation while the scale of downside risks on activity are uncertain, and not on

U.S. September CPI - Soft enough for an October FOMC easing but still above target

October 24, 2025 12:58 PM UTC

September CPI is on the low side of expectations at 0.3% overall, 0.2% ex food and energy, and should not pose an obstacle to a likely 25bps easing at the October 29 FOMC meeting. The core rate was up by 0.23% before rounding, slower than July and August gains that rise by more than 0.3% before roun

October 23, 2025 1:07 PM UTC

While the government shutdown continues with no sign of a near term deal, September’s US CPI, originally scheduled for October 15, will be released on October 24. The release was considered essential as it is needed for annual cost of living adjustments to Social Security benefits. It is however p

When And How Will the U.S. Government Shutdown End?

October 22, 2025 3:01 PM UTC

The US government shutdown is now entering its fourth week and there are no signs of an imminent solution, though once progress starts, it could gain momentum quickly. It looks likely that pressure to reach a solution will start to build in early November, though the nature of the eventual settlemen

Looking at the Candidates for U.S. FOMC Chair

October 17, 2025 3:22 PM UTC

There are now five candidates for Fed Chair, in a rough order of decreasing credibility, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, current Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh,  National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and Rick Rieder, Blackrock’s Chief Investment

U.S. Trump - 100% tariffs on China not sustainable

October 17, 2025 12:34 PM UTC

Trump seems to be backing off his threatened tariffs on China, perhaps influenced by equity weakness.