U.S. Trump - Showing concern over Supreme Court tariff case

November 6, 2025 7:27 PM UTC

Yesterday's Supreme Court hearings raised the risk that they could rule against Trump's tariffs. Markets may broadly welcome any such ruling but any lost revenues would add to the budget deficit.

U.S. Equities: Smaller Correction But Still Overvalued

November 6, 2025 10:25 AM UTC

·       We are revising up our end 2025 S&P500 forecast from 6000 to 6500 for a number of reasons. Private sector data shows the risk of a U.S. hard landing is lower than a couple of months ago, with economic data more consistent with a soft landing.  Additionally, the tech/AI optimism has n

November 5, 2025 10:30 AM UTC

·       While some fiscal stimulus into 2026 is likely from the new PM Takaichi, this is unlikely to be aggressive given the JGB supply pressures and the need for support from other parties in passing fiscal measures.  A return to QE (2nd arrow of Abenomics) is highly unlikely, with the BOJ

Preview: U.S. October CPI - An important number that may never be seen

November 4, 2025 3:59 PM UTC

October US CPI, while scheduled on November 13, may never be released even if the government  shutdown is resolved, given lack of data collection during the month of October. However what the number would have been does matter. Our forecast is for a 0.2% increase overall, with a 0.3% rise ex food a

U.S. Treasuries: Waiting for Data and Yield Curve Steepening

November 4, 2025 1:57 PM UTC

•    Multi quarter we still look for 75bps of further Fed easing by end 2026, which will likely initially bring 2yr yields down to 3.4%.  However, once the Fed Funds rate get closer to 3.0-3.25% and the slowdown turns into a soft landing, the 2yr will likely move to a premium versus Fed Funds

China: Fiscal Stimulus Modest Rather than Large?

November 3, 2025 9:07 AM UTC

•    Overall, we see around a Yuan2.0-2.5trn fiscal stimulus for 2026 and some of this could be announced in December but the majority in March 2026.  This reflects the fiscal constraints on China authorities; the targeted focus in the 2026-31 five year plan and reluctance to spending on hous

Continuum Economics Calendar November 2025

October 31, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar November 2025.

U.S./China Trade Framework: Avoiding Escalation

October 31, 2025 7:48 AM UTC

·         The U.S./China framework deal avoids renewed escalation of trade tension, but is unlikely to be followed by a comprehensive trade deal in 2026 as China does not want major import and bilateral trade commitments.  The economic effects will likely be small and the deal main aim app

FOMC - Strong Differences of Opinion Leave December Decision Dependent on Incoming Information

October 29, 2025 7:58 PM UTC

After a statement that contained no major surprises, the highlight of FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference was his comment that there were strong differences on policy going forward, and that a December ease was far from assured. While we still feel that on balance easing in December is

U.S. Fed's Powell - December move far from sure

October 29, 2025 6:54 PM UTC

Fed's Powell has noted strong differences on future policy at the FOMC, casting some doubt on a December easing

FOMC eases by 25bps, to conclude quantitative tightening on December 1

October 29, 2025 6:21 PM UTC

The FOMC has eased rates by 25bps to a 3.75%-4.00% range as expected and decided to conclude the reduction of its securities holdings on December 1 as Chairman Powell had hinted at on October 14. There were two dissents, Governor Miran favoring a 50bps move and Kansas City Fed’s Schmid delivering

U.S-China Trade Tensions Ease, US-Canada Tensions Escalate

October 27, 2025 3:32 PM UTC

Trade tensions between the US and China appear to be easing, with it looking increasingly unlikely that the US will impose a threatened extra 100% tariff on China on November 1. However trade tensions with Canada have increased, with Canada receiving an extra 10% tariff, adding to downside economic

FOMC Preview for October 29: 25bps Easing but Little Forward Guidance

October 24, 2025 3:49 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on October 29 and a 25bps easing to 3.75%-4.0% looks likely, particularly after September’s CPI came in on the low side of expectations.  The statement is however still likely to express concerns over inflation while the scale of downside risks on activity are uncertain, and not on

U.S. September CPI - Soft enough for an October FOMC easing but still above target

October 24, 2025 12:58 PM UTC

September CPI is on the low side of expectations at 0.3% overall, 0.2% ex food and energy, and should not pose an obstacle to a likely 25bps easing at the October 29 FOMC meeting. The core rate was up by 0.23% before rounding, slower than July and August gains that rise by more than 0.3% before roun

October 23, 2025 1:07 PM UTC

While the government shutdown continues with no sign of a near term deal, September’s US CPI, originally scheduled for October 15, will be released on October 24. The release was considered essential as it is needed for annual cost of living adjustments to Social Security benefits. It is however p

When And How Will the U.S. Government Shutdown End?

October 22, 2025 3:01 PM UTC

The US government shutdown is now entering its fourth week and there are no signs of an imminent solution, though once progress starts, it could gain momentum quickly. It looks likely that pressure to reach a solution will start to build in early November, though the nature of the eventual settlemen

Looking at the Candidates for U.S. FOMC Chair

October 17, 2025 3:22 PM UTC

There are now five candidates for Fed Chair, in a rough order of decreasing credibility, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, current Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh,  National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and Rick Rieder, Blackrock’s Chief Investment

U.S. Trump - 100% tariffs on China not sustainable

October 17, 2025 12:34 PM UTC

Trump seems to be backing off his threatened tariffs on China, perhaps influenced by equity weakness.

U.S. Fed's Powell - May end balance sheet run-off in coming months

October 14, 2025 4:34 PM UTC

Fed's Powell has signalled that QT, already reduced, may soon end, but added little fresh on the outlook for Fed Funds.

U.S. Fed's Paulson - Moderate tone

October 13, 2025 5:42 PM UTC

Early comments from incoming Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson are moderate in tone.

U.S-China Trade Tensions May Escalate Further Before Eventually Fading

October 13, 2025 3:19 PM UTC

Trump’s more conciliatory words after announcing a 100% tariff on China starting November 1 have eased market worries, though the issue is far from resolved. It is still possible that Trump will follow through with his threat on November 1, but unlikely that tariffs would remain elevated for very

Preview: Due October 24 (even if shutdown continues) - U.S. September CPI - Firm but a little less so in core rate

October 13, 2025 1:58 PM UTC

While the government shutdown continues with no sign of a near term deal, September’s US CPI, originally scheduled for October 15, will be released on October 24 even if the shutdown continues through then. The release was considered essential as it is needed for annual cost of living adjustments

U.S. Fed's Waller - Cautions given contrast between GDP and employment

October 10, 2025 12:02 PM UTC

Fed's Waller while dovish, does not favor easing in more than 25bps steps.

FOMC Minutes from September 17 - No dramatic divisions revealed

October 8, 2025 6:54 PM UTC

FOMC minutes from September 17 do not show a clear split between two camps, despite Fed speakers since the meeting showing some with clearly hawkish concerns and others significantly less so. This reflects a broad consensus to ease by 25bps at this meeting. While future decisions are not set in ston

Canada August trade deficit inflated by moves in gold, but damage from U.S. tariffs is clear

October 7, 2025 12:56 PM UTC

Canada’s August trade deficit of C$6.32bn is up from C$3.82bn (revised from C$4.94bn) in July and the widest since April, suggesting the Canadian economy remains pressured by the impact of US tariffs. However the August deficit is inflated by strong movements in both exports and imports of gold.

U.S. Q3 GDP heading for a rise of 2.3%, led by consumer spending and business investment

October 6, 2025 3:23 PM UTC

With the US government shutdown not looking set for a quick resolution, it is a good time to take a fresh look at Q3 GDP, which is scheduled for October 30, the day after the FOMC next meets, though the release could be delayed even if the shutdown is over by then. We now look for an increase of 2.3

U.S. Fed's Miran - Expects significant services deflation via housing

October 3, 2025 2:00 PM UTC

Fed dove Miran sees Trump policy changes lowering the neutral rate, but less dramatically than his near term dovish view would imply.

FOMC Minutes from September 17 to show differing views on the future rates path

October 2, 2025 5:51 PM UTC

The Fed will continue to function during the government shutdown, and minutes from the September 17 meeting are due on October 8. They are likely to show a broad consensus in favor of the 25bps easing delivered at the meeting, but a variety of views on the appropriate path going forward.  The indiv

U.S. Fed's Logan - Need to be very cautious about rate cuts

October 2, 2025 2:46 PM UTC

Fed's Logan remains hawkish, but has no vote this year or next.

Preview: Due October 16 (dependent on shutdown ending) - U.S. September Retail Sales - Still growing, if more on prices than volumes

October 2, 2025 12:53 PM UTC

We expect a third straight 0.6% increase in retail sales in September, with slightly over half of the increase coming in prices, leaving only moderate growth in real terms. We also expect 0.6% increase ex autos but a slightly weaker 0.5% increase ex autos and gasoline. 

DM Central Banks: Wider-Ranging Conditions More Than Neutral Rates

October 2, 2025 6:55 AM UTC

·        Neutral policy rate estimates and forward guidance provide some help at the start of easing cycles, but less so at mid to mature stages.  For the Fed, ECB and BOE we look at a wider array of economic and financial conditions, alongside our own projections over the next 2 years to m

Preview: Due October 15 (dependent on shutdown ending) - U.S. September CPI - Firm but a little less so in core rate

October 1, 2025 6:29 PM UTC

We expect September CPI to increase by 0.4% overall and by 0.3% ex food and energy, matching August’s outcomes after rounding, though before rounding we expect overall CPI to be rounded down from 0.425%, and the core rate to be rounded up from 0.28%, contrasting August data when headline CPI was r

AI/Humanoid Robots and Disinflation?

October 1, 2025 9:40 AM UTC

·       Overall, a number of forces from the AI wave will impact inflation.  Power demand could push up power prices, but productivity enhancements and product innovation could be disinflationary like Information and Communications technology (ICT).  One other key uncertainty on a 1-5 year