Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant

October 1, 2026 4:52 PM UTC

We expect September PPI to increase by 0.6% overall led by energy with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This will suggest inflationary pressures remain elevated, with little sign of slowing at the producer level. 

Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Healthy if less strong than August

October 1, 2026 1:06 PM UTC

We expect September’s non-farm payroll to rise by 100k both overall and in the private sector, slower than in August but still implying a healthy trend. We expect a 4.1% unemployment rate for a third straight month but a slightly slower 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and a stable workweek. O

U.S. GDP, Income, Spending and PCE Price revisions mostly encouraging, but Trade Deficit is rising

September 30, 2026 1:51 PM UTC

The final Q2 GDP report and August’s personal income and spending data are notable for historical revisions going back to 2021. The news in the revisions is generally encouraging, with upward revisions to GDP and real disposable income but downward revisions to PCE prices, led by non-market prices

U.S. GDP, Income, Spending and PCE Price revisions mostly encouraging, but Trade Deficit is rising

September 30, 2026 1:51 PM UTC

The final Q2 GDP report and August’s personal income and spending data are notable for historical revisions going back to 2021. The news in the revisions is generally encouraging, with upward revisions to GDP and real disposable income but downward revisions to PCE prices, led by non-market prices

Continuum Economics Calendar October 2026

September 30, 2026 1:00 PM UTC

Data and Events Calendar October 2026.

Preview: Due October 14 - U.S. September CPI - Stronger, but with a slower core rate

September 29, 2026 6:02 PM UTC

We expect a stronger rise of 0.6% in overall CPI in September, but a moderate 0.2% increase ex food and energy. Before rounding we expect the respective gains to be 0.57% and 0.19%. The latter would be a significant slowing from August’s 0.29%, but the former would be the strongest since April.

U.S. Fed's Cook - Expects continued inflation pressure

September 28, 2026 5:42 PM UTC

Governor Cook is another Fed moderate now sounding hawkish. 

FOMC Minutes Preview: Likely to be hawkish, but October decision still data-dependent

September 28, 2026 4:37 PM UTC

The public comments of Fed speakers since the September 16 meeting delivered a unanimous vote to tighten suggest that the minutes of that meeting, due on October 7, will have a hawkish tone. Recent hawkish Fed talk reduces the risk that the proximity of the midterm elections will prevent a tightenin

FOMC Minutes Preview: Likely to be hawkish, but October decision still data-dependent

September 28, 2026 4:36 PM UTC

The public comments of Fed speakers since the September 16 meeting delivered a unanimous vote to tighten suggest that the minutes of that meeting, due on October 7, will have a hawkish tone. Recent hawkish Fed talk reduces the risk that the proximity of the midterm elections will prevent a tightenin

U.S. July Durable Goods Orders - Some loss of momentum in Q3 to date

September 25, 2026 12:53 PM UTC

August durable goods orders are unchanged, a little stronger than expected overall, but the ex transport gain of 0.3% is weaker than expected and even with July revised up to 0.7% from 0.4% Q3 data to data has been slower than Q2’s. 

U.S. Fed's Paulson - May need to do more

September 24, 2026 5:04 PM UTC

Fed's Paulson is another formerly moderate Fed speaker now on board with a more hawkish stance.

September Outlook: Navigation Into 2027

September 24, 2026 1:35 PM UTC

Our September Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

U.S. Fed's Williams - Further tightening this year reasonable

September 24, 2026 1:33 PM UTC

Even the relatively dovish FOMC voters are now sounding quite hawkish.

U.S. Fed's Barr - Now backing more rate hikes

September 23, 2026 5:54 PM UTC

Fed's Barr's is sounding significantly more hawkish than in early September.

Outlook Overview: Navigation Into 2027

September 23, 2026 2:30 PM UTC

·       The hot phase of the Iran war is over, but the intermittent conflict between the U.S. and Iran is stopping shipping via the Straits of Hormuz from fully recovering and keeping energy prices elevated.  Some DM and EM central banks are guarding against 2nd round effects with modest tig

DM Rates Outlook: Long-term challenges, but selective short-term value

September 23, 2026 6:15 AM UTC

*Overweight gilts for 2027, focusing on intermediates. Large ‘policy uncertainty’ premium offers value on any less adverse Middle East scenario.
* Treasuries may offer tactical opportunity into weakness over Q4 2026-Q1 2027, with US10s projected back towards 4½% in respite. Longer term issues re

U.S. Outlook: Growth Overly Dependent on AI

September 22, 2026 1:34 PM UTC

•    The US economy is currently showing signs of acceleration with business investment strong led by AI and consumer spending outperforming real disposable income, in part because of AI-assisted strength in equities. We expect continued strength in business investment though a modest slowing

Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Healthy if less strong than August

September 21, 2026 6:29 PM UTC

We expect September’s non-farm payroll to rise by 100k both overall and in the private sector, slower than in August but still maintaining a healthy trend. We expect a 4.1% unemployment rate for a third straight month but a slightly slower 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and a stable workweek

Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Healthy if less strong than August

September 21, 2026 6:28 PM UTC

We expect September’s non-farm payroll to rise by 100k both overall and in the private sector, slower than in August but still maintaining a healthy trend. We expect a 4.1% unemployment rate for a third straight month but a slightly slower 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and a stable workweek

Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. August Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, watch for revisions

September 18, 2026 5:26 PM UTC

We expect August PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.4% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy. We expect a 0.5% increase in personal income, and a strong 0.9% increase in personal spending. The data should be watched not only for August changes, but also for historical revisions going ba

Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. August Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, watch for revisions

September 18, 2026 5:25 PM UTC

We expect August PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.4% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy. We expect a 0.5% increase in personal income, and a strong 0.9% increase in personal spending. The data should be watched not only for August changes, but also for historical revisions going ba

U.S. August Industrial Production - Surprising dip in manufacturing

September 18, 2026 1:46 PM UTC

August industrial production was unchanged with a very surprising 0.3% decline in manufacturing, its first decline since three straight declines were seen in Q4 of 2025. While one month does not make a trend the manufacturing losses were broad based and thus not easy to dismiss.

U.S. August Industrial Production - Surprising dip in manufacturing

September 18, 2026 1:41 PM UTC

August industrial production was unchanged with a very surprising 0.3% decline in manufacturing, its first decline since three straight declines were seen in Q4 of 2025. While one month does not make a trend the manufacturing losses were broad based and thus not easy to dismiss.

U.S. Initial Claims, September Philly Fed, August Housing Starts and Permits - More positives than negatives

September 17, 2026 1:17 PM UTC

The latest data is mixed but positives outweigh the negatives. Initial claims at 196k from 206k are very low indeed and take on extra significance in that this is the survey week for September’s non-farm payroll. September’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of 37.8 is down from 47.4 but still very

U.S. Initial Claims, September Philly Fed, August Housing Starts and Permits - More positives than negatives

September 17, 2026 1:17 PM UTC

The latest data is mixed but positives outweigh the negatives. Initial claims at 196k from 206k are very low indeed and take on extra significance in that this is the survey week for September’s non-farm payroll. September’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of 37.8 is down from 47.4 but still very

FOMC - Further tightening likely if data holds up

September 16, 2026 7:48 PM UTC

The Fed’s 25bps tightening was as we expected but a lack of any dovish dissenting votes was not. The Fed’s dots were more hawkish than we expected. While we have a somewhat more dovish view of the economy that the Fed, we have updated our Fed forecast, now expecting one more move this year, in D

FOMC - Further tightening likely if data holds up

September 16, 2026 7:47 PM UTC

The Fed’s 25bps tightening was as we expected but a lack of any dovish dissenting votes was not. The Fed’s dots were more hawkish than we expected. While we have a somewhat more dovish view of the economy that the Fed, we have updated our Fed forecast, now expecting one more move this year, in D

U.S. August Retail Sales - Positive picture restored

September 16, 2026 12:53 PM UTC

August retail sales have surprised to the upside, restoring a positive picture after a weak July. Overall sales rose by 1.2%, as did sales ex autos and gasoline. Ex auto sales and the control group which contributes to GDP both increased by 1.4%, these gains more significantly above expectations tha

Open AI Delay IPO and Safety Fears

September 14, 2026 6:59 AM UTC

·       For financial markets, the Open AI IPO delay risks making the Open AI ecosystem more volatile, despite the huge private financing that it has already done this year.  Additionally, the wider safety fears and calls for slowing by leading AI labs increase the risks surrounding the 2027

FOMC Preview for September 16: Recent data back Warsh tightening hints

September 11, 2026 2:36 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on September 16 and after some recent firm data, particularly August’s core CPI, a 25bps tightening to a 3.75% - 4.0% Fed Funds target range now looks likely. However, the CPI upside surprise came in only a few components and some dovish dissents are still possible, though Chairman

U.S. August CPI - Telephone services, air fares and hotels lift the core rate

September 11, 2026 1:08 PM UTC

August CPI is not a shocker at 0.4% overall, but the core rate of 0.3% ex food and energy is above expectations and where the Fed would like it to be and suggests tightening on September 16 is now likely. Before rounding core CPI rose by 0.29% and overall CPI by 0.396%. Telephone services are the ma

U.S. August CPI - Telephone services, air fares and hotels lift the core rate

September 11, 2026 1:07 PM UTC

August CPI is not a shocker at 0.4% overall, but the core rate of 0.3% ex food and energy is above expectations and where the Fed would like it to be and suggests tightening on September 16 is now likely. Before rounding core CPI rose by 0.29% and overall CPI by 0.396%. Telephone services are the ma