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June 14, 2024

U.S. Fed's Mester - May CPI is welcome news
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June 14, 2024 12:52 PM UTC

June 12, 2024

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Fed: Door Still Open to 2024 Rate Cuts
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June 12, 2024 7:43 PM UTC

Though the June SEP median Fed dot is for one 25bps cut in 2024, the details of the summary of economic projections and guidance from Fed chair Powell during the press conference make clear that one or two cuts are in current Fed thinking.  Data dependence is key for the Fed and we look for less GD

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FOMC delivers hawkish 2024 dots, but statement slightly more optimistic on inflation
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June 12, 2024 6:26 PM UTC

The Fed’s statement is slightly more optimistic on inflation on June than in May, tough continues to require greater confidence that it is moving towards target before easing. The dots are significantly more hawkish than in March, with a median of only one 25bps easing in 2024 rather than three, t

June 07, 2024

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FOMC Preview For June 12: Hawkish Dots, Flexible Press Conference
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June 7, 2024 3:29 PM UTC

Bottom Line: The FOMC meets on June 12 and looks sure to leave the target range unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%. The tone of the statement may be influenced by the May CPI that will be released on the morning of the decision, but even if CPI surprises on the downside is unlikely to give any hints easing is

May 31, 2024

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H1 2025 Fiscal Stress or Crisis?
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May 31, 2024 2:30 PM UTC

We see the U.S. facing fiscal stress in H1 2025.  Either a re-elected President Biden would be restrained by Republicans over raising the debt ceiling or a president Trump would want to make the lapsing parts of the 2017 tax cuts permanent.  Rating agencies would be unhappy with either scenario an

May 30, 2024

U.S. Fed's Williams - Expects lower inflation
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May 30, 2024 4:15 PM UTC

May 29, 2024

U.S. Fed Beige Book Summary - Similar to last report
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May 29, 2024 6:13 PM UTC

The latest Beige Book looks very similar to the last one released on April 17. Findings on activity and the labor market look acceptable to the Fed, but some inflationary pressure persists.

May 27, 2024

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Fed Easing Expectations: Volatile and Data Driven
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May 27, 2024 12:05 PM UTC

 Bottom Line: Fed easing expectations have been reset to higher for longer.  However, softer real sector data, plus less worrying inflation monthly outcomes, can rebuild easing expectations.  We see the first 25bps coming at the September 19 FOMC meeting and around this time a noticeable increase

May 22, 2024

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FOMC Minutes from May 1 - Data expected to slow, but alert to risks
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May 22, 2024 6:54 PM UTC

FOMC minutes from May 1 do not show a very hawkish view of the economy, with inflation and the economy still expected to slow, though with the former seen at a slower pace and with less confidence. Policy is seen as data-dependent, and the potential for a more hawkish turn if data disappoints can be

May 21, 2024

U.S. Fed's Waller - Several months of good inflation needed for easing
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May 21, 2024 1:18 PM UTC

May 20, 2024

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FOMC Minutes from May 1 to Suggest Restrictive for Longer
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May 20, 2024 7:15 PM UTC

FOMC minutes from May 1 are due on May 22. The minutes are likely to be a more hawkish than those from the March 20 meeting released on April 10, given the strength of data released between the two meetings. Restrictive policy for longer so likely to be the message, but with no clear timetable. Soft

U.S. Fed's Jefferson - Progress less than would have liked but encouraged by April CPI
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May 20, 2024 3:01 PM UTC

U.S. Fed's Barr - Need to allow tight policy further time
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May 20, 2024 1:27 PM UTC

Fed's Barr appears to have become less dovish in response to Q1 inflation data.

U.S. Fed's Bostic - Economy moving in right direction, but only slowly
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May 20, 2024 11:52 AM UTC

May 16, 2024

U.S. Fed's Mester - Prudent to hold rates for longer, but welcomes April CPI
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May 16, 2024 5:45 PM UTC

May 14, 2024

U.S. Fed's Powell - Q1 saw lack of further progress on inflation
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May 14, 2024 2:25 PM UTC

May 13, 2024

U.S. Fed's Jefferson - Maintain restrictive policy until more confident
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May 13, 2024 2:19 PM UTC

May 10, 2024

U.S. Fed's Kashkari - Fed to wait and see on inflation
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May 10, 2024 6:37 PM UTC

U.S. Fed's Logan - Uncertainties if policy sufficiently restrictive
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May 10, 2024 2:19 PM UTC

U.S. Fed's Bostic - Thinking more about when to ease rather than how much
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May 10, 2024 12:31 PM UTC

May 09, 2024

U.S. Fed's Daly - Considerable uncertainty on inflation
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May 9, 2024 6:28 PM UTC

May 08, 2024

U.S. Fed's Collins - Steady for longer
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May 8, 2024 5:11 PM UTC

May 07, 2024

U.S. Fed's Kashkari - Neutral rate may have increased
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May 7, 2024 1:28 PM UTC

May 06, 2024

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Fed SLOOS on Bank Lending mostly resilient
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May 6, 2024 6:27 PM UTC

The Fed’s Q2 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on bank lending practices generally sustains a less negative tone seen in the last survey for Q1, and does not suggest that the Fed need to have any serious concerns about the business investment outlook. 

May 03, 2024

U.S. Fed's Goolsbee - Jobs report very solid
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May 3, 2024 2:45 PM UTC

U.S. Fed's Bowman - Still hawkish
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May 3, 2024 2:00 PM UTC

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EMFX: Diverging On Domestic Forces Not Less Fed Easing Hopes
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May 3, 2024 10:45 AM UTC

While U.S. economic developments, plus Fed policy prospects, will be important in terms of EM currency developments, domestic politics and fundamentals will also be decisive. These can keep the South Africa Rand volatile in the remainder of 2024, given the risk of a coalition government and African

May 01, 2024

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FOMC Still Waiting For Data to Justify Easing
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May 1, 2024 7:58 PM UTC

The May 1 FOMC statement, and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference, while noting recent inflation disappointment, did not deliver a strong pivot in tone. The Fed is still waiting for data to allow easing to take place, but still expects inflation to slow, and looks ready to respond once data

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FOMC Notes Lack of Further Inflation Progress, QT to be Tapered in June
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May 1, 2024 6:27 PM UTC

The FOMC has left rates at 5.25%-5.50% as expected and added to its statement that in recent months there has been a lack of further progress towards the 2% inflation objective. Otherwise the changes to the statement were fairly minor other than announcing a slowing in the pace of balance sheet redu

April 25, 2024

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FOMC Preview For May 1: Signaling Concern on Inflation, Tapering Quantitative Tightening
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April 25, 2024 7:04 PM UTC

Bottom Line: The FOMC meets on May 1 and rates look sure to remain at the current 5.25%-5.50% target range. The statement is likely to see some adjustments to reflect recent disappointment on inflation while repeating that more confidence on inflation moving towards target is needed before easing. I

April 22, 2024

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Short-end European Government Bonds Following U.S. But June Decoupling
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April 22, 2024 1:15 PM UTC

The Fed’s shift to higher for longer has spilled over to drag European government bond yields higher through April.  This now looks overdone as a June ECB rate cut is not fully discounted and ECB officials/data clearly point towards a 25bps cut.  UK money markets are more out of line, with a Jun

April 19, 2024

U.S. Fed's Goolsbee - Three months of inflation data can't be dismissed
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April 19, 2024 6:17 PM UTC

April 18, 2024

U.S. Fed's Bostic - No need to ease if labor market stays strong
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April 18, 2024 4:21 PM UTC

April 17, 2024

U.S. Fed Beige Book Summary - Similar tone to last report
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April 17, 2024 6:14 PM UTC

The latest Beige Book has a similar tone to that of March 6, if slightly stronger on activity, while seeing some easing of labor market tightness but little change in inflationary pressure.

April 16, 2024

U.S. Fed's Powell - Tone changes, no longer downplaying strong inflation data
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April 16, 2024 5:59 PM UTC

U.S. Fed's Jefferson - Expects lower inflation, if not will keep rates higher for longer
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April 16, 2024 1:52 PM UTC

April 15, 2024

U.S. Fed's Williams - Optimistic and not very hawkish
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April 15, 2024 1:09 PM UTC

April 12, 2024

U.S. Fed's Schmid - Reason to think rates will stay higher for longer
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April 12, 2024 7:40 PM UTC

Hawkish remarks from Schmid are probably the most notable of today's Fed talk, with Collins, Goolsbee and Bostic all maintaining the tone of recent comments.

April 11, 2024

U.S. Fed's Collins - Recent data reduce case for near term easing
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April 11, 2024 4:47 PM UTC

U.S. Fed's Barkin - Recent inflation data don't raise confidence
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April 11, 2024 2:01 PM UTC

U.S. Fed's Williams - Still looking for gradual inflation decline to persist, with bumps
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April 11, 2024 1:21 PM UTC

April 10, 2024

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Tone of FOMC Minutes From March 20 is Not Hawkish
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April 10, 2024 6:54 PM UTC

FOMC minutes from March show little sign of disagreement and the tone is not hawkish, with participants expecting both inflation and the economy to slow, and there being a clear majority view that the pace of balance sheet reduction should soon be trimmed.  Optimism on inflation is however cautious

April 05, 2024

U.S. Fed's Bowman - Not time to cut, won't rule out a further hike
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April 5, 2024 4:50 PM UTC