Putting Names to the FOMC Dots
There are nineteen FOMC dots. Seven hawks expect no easing this year, and two expect only one 25bps move. Eight are on the median seeing two 25bps moves, while two doves are looking for three. While only two have clearly signaled what their personal dot is, reasonable estimates can be made to identify the names behind dots.
None have explicitly called for three rate cuts this year, but Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman have stated they were open to a July move, and that suggests they are the two with three easings in their dots. Neither has always been a dove, with Bowman’s shift to a dovish stance being particularly recent, but both were appointed by President Trump in his first term, and have downplayed the inflationary risks from tariffs.Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostic has identified himself as one on the two with one easing penciled in. We suspect the other is Boston Fed’s Susan Collins, who on June 25 stated she expects it will be appropriate to lower rates later this year but also warned of the inflationary risks from tariffs.
Fed Governors who have been sounding hawkish are Adriana Kugler, whose term expires in January 2016, and Michael Barr, who has warned that tariff-induced inflation could see some persistence, and we expect they are among the seven who see no easing this year. We are reasonably comfortable that this group also includes St Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan. We see Richmond Fed’s President Thomas Barkin as the most likely final member of the group. He has made it clear he is in no hurry to cut rates but has been less clearly hawkish on inflation than the other six.
That leaves the eight on the median including Chairman Jerome Powell, Vice-Chairman John Williams, as well as Governors Philip Jefferson and Lisa Cook. Minnesota Fed President Neel Kashkari has stated two rate cuts this year is his expectation. Other regional Fed presidents likely to be on the median include San Francisco Fed’s Daly, who has said the fall is a promising time for a rate cut, and Chicago Fed’s usually dovish Austan Goolsbee. The final median dot probably belonged to retiring Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, who was succeeded on July 1 by Anna Paulson.
This year’s rotating votes are hawks Musalem and Schmid, the somewhat hawkish Collins and dove Goolsbee. In 2026 the rotating voters will be hawks Hammack and Logan, the on-median Kashkari and the still unknown Paulson.