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January 06, 2026
Markets 2026
January 6, 2026 9:58 AM UTC
• For financial markets, the muddle through for global economics and policy provides support for risk assets, combined with solid earnings prospects from some of the magnificent 7. However, U.S. equities are once again significantly overvalued and we look for a 5-10% correction in 2026, b
January 02, 2026
December 22, 2025
December 18, 2025
EM FX Outlook: High Real Yields Still Help
December 18, 2025 12:14 PM UTC
• EM currency 2026 prospects come against a backdrop of a further but slower USD depreciation against DM currencies, but inflation differentials, domestic central bank policy and politics also matter. We forecast the Mexican Peso (MXN) will likely be more volatile, as President Donald Tru
December 17, 2025
Outlook Overview: Turbulent Times
December 17, 2025 7:44 AM UTC
· The U.S. slowdown remains in focus as the lagged effects of President Trump’s tariff increases continues to feedthrough, though our baseline is for a 2026 soft-landing. The Supreme court will likely rule against part of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, which will create short-term
December 16, 2025
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Managing Slower Growth Without Losing the Cycle
December 16, 2025 2:43 PM UTC
· Asia’s 2026 growth is normalizing, not weakening, though the growth outlook reflects resilience under mounting strain rather than acceleration. Larger investment-led economies such as India and Malaysia are sustaining momentum through public capex, infrastructure pipelines, and indu
December 12, 2025
Equities Outlook: Choppy Up For 2026 and Down for 2027?
December 12, 2025 8:05 AM UTC
· The U.S. equity market is underpinned by the bullish AI/tech story and a soft economic landing into 2026. However, overvaluation is clear and this leaves the market vulnerable to a 5-10% correction on moderate bad news e.g. economic data. We see the S&P500 having a choppy year a
December 09, 2025
Americas First: New National Security Strategy
December 9, 2025 8:40 AM UTC
· The new NSS at one level reads like a Trump/MAGA current list of topics and desires, that may not translate into policy or a major shift of military assets. Trump has blown hot and cold on Europe and China over the past 12 months and could shift again. Nevertheless, the NSS does r
December 05, 2025
RBI Cuts Repo Rate to 5.25% as Inflation Hits Record Lows
December 5, 2025 4:28 PM UTC
The RBI’s December cut marks a decisive shift toward pro-growth policy at a moment of exceptionally low inflation. With the economy outperforming and price pressures collapsing, the central bank is signalling confidence—but the trajectory of the rupee and the uncertainty of US trade policy remai
December 03, 2025
December 01, 2025
India GDP Review: India’s Economy Surges 8.2% in Q2
December 1, 2025 7:43 AM UTC
India’s GDP grew 8.2% in Q2 FY26, far exceeding market and RBI expectations and marking its strongest performance in six quarters. The expansion was powered by manufacturing, services and a sharp rebound in consumption, amplified by a favourable deflator and GST rate cuts. With first-half growth n
November 21, 2025
U.S. Asset Inflows After April’s Trump Tariffs
November 21, 2025 8:00 AM UTC
· Net foreign portfolio inflows have not been hurt by Trump’s April tariff drama, with the AI and tech boom attracting new equity inflows. Flows could become more volatile with a U.S. equity bear market or recession, but these are modest risk alternative scenarios rather than high r
November 18, 2025
Markets 2026
November 18, 2025 10:30 AM UTC
· The Fed, ECB and BOE will likely drive further 10-2yr government bond yield curve steepening, with 10yr Bund yields rising due to ECB QT and German fiscal expansion. 10yr JGB yields are set to surge through 2%, as BOJ QT remains excessive and underestimated. The BOJ could partiall
November 17, 2025
India CPI Review: Inflation Cools to Historic Lows
November 17, 2025 8:04 AM UTC
India’s October inflation print confirms a rare moment of macro alignment—low inflation, solid growth, and room for monetary easing. The RBI now faces a high-conviction window to cut rates in December, but must stay vigilant against creeping food price risks as FY26 progresses.
November 07, 2025
India’s Fiscal Deficit Swells, Yet 4.4% Target Still Within Reach
November 7, 2025 7:30 PM UTC
India’s fiscal performance in H1 reflects a calculated front-loading of capex to support growth, while record non-tax revenues offer a buffer. Execution risks remain in H2, but the government appears confident in meeting its 4.4% deficit target without derailing market or reform momentum.
India CPI Preview: Disinflation Deepens: October CPI Forecast at 1.1%
November 7, 2025 5:43 PM UTC
We forecast October CPI at 1.1% yr/yr, with risks tilted to the downside. The disinflationary trend is broad-based, but unlikely to last into early 2026. RBI still has room to cut, but may prefer to assess the durability of food price softness before moving
October 31, 2025
U.S./China Trade Framework: Avoiding Escalation
October 31, 2025 7:48 AM UTC
· The U.S./China framework deal avoids renewed escalation of trade tension, but is unlikely to be followed by a comprehensive trade deal in 2026 as China does not want major import and bilateral trade commitments. The economic effects will likely be small and the deal main aim app
October 30, 2025
Breakthrough in Sight: India and US Move Towards Bilateral Trade Agreement
October 30, 2025 6:05 AM UTC
The India–US trade deal now seems within reach after months of deadlock, with both sides signalling convergence on major issues. For Indian exporters, particularly in textiles, marine products, and engineering goods, the removal of US tariffs would provide a timely boost amid global demand uncerta
October 28, 2025
India’s Core Sector Growth Slows to 3%: Infrastructure Holds Firm, Energy Falters
October 28, 2025 6:14 AM UTC
India’s September core sector data encapsulates a pivotal juncture for the economy — resilient infrastructure activity offset by energy vulnerability. Slowing core output implies lower industrial output growth over Q2-FY26.
October 17, 2025
India Accelerates Mineral Diplomacy as Beijing Tightens Export Controls
October 17, 2025 7:31 AM UTC
China’s expanded export curbs on rare earths have pushed India to fast-track its critical minerals strategy — combining domestic stockpiles, new mining auctions, and global supply alliances. New Delhi’s plan hinges on building refining capacity and securing long-term deals in Latin America, Af
Oil, Tariffs, and Technology: Inside India–US Trade Negotiations
October 17, 2025 6:27 AM UTC
India and the US are nearing the first phase of a long-awaited Bilateral Trade Agreement, with negotiations in Washington focusing on tariffs, digital standards, and supply-chain resilience.Energy remains the flashpoint, as Washington’s 50% duties tied to India’s Russian oil imports complicate p
October 14, 2025
India CPI Review: CPI at Eight-Year Low: Disinflation Deepens, RBI Seen Easing in December
October 14, 2025 7:21 AM UTC
India’s retail inflation eased to 1.54% in September — the lowest in nearly eight years — driven by steep declines in food and fuel prices. With CPI now well below the RBI’s 2–6% tolerance band and GST cuts reinforcing disinflation, a December rate cut looks increasingly likely. Core infla
October 02, 2025
RBI Holds Rates, Balances Growth Optimism with Global Risks
October 2, 2025 6:09 AM UTC
The RBI held the repo rate at 5.5% in its October review, keeping policy neutral after 100 bps of cuts earlier this year. Inflation was sharply revised down to 2.6% in FY26, while growth was upgraded to 6.8%, reflecting resilient domestic demand. The decision reflects a strategy of stability—pausi
October 01, 2025
AI/Humanoid Robots and Disinflation?
October 1, 2025 9:40 AM UTC
· Overall, a number of forces from the AI wave will impact inflation. Power demand could push up power prices, but productivity enhancements and product innovation could be disinflationary like Information and Communications technology (ICT). One other key uncertainty on a 1-5 year
September 30, 2025
Trump Tariffs: China, Mexico and Semiconductors
September 30, 2025 8:00 AM UTC
· Our baseline (60% probability) remains that a U.S./China trade deal will be agreed in Q4/Q1 2026 and it is possible though unlikely that this could be announced at the Trump/Xi meeting at the October 31 APEC summit – China requests that the U.S. changes policy on Taiwan could slo
September 29, 2025
RBI Likely to Hold Rates, Watchful of Tariffs and Festive Demand
September 29, 2025 6:57 AM UTC
The RBI is expected to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.5% in its October review, pausing after three consecutive cuts earlier this year. With inflation undershooting and GST rationalisation set to push CPI lower, policymakers see little need for immediate action. The central bank will instead wait
September 26, 2025
September 25, 2025
September 23, 2025
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Balancing Moderation with Resilience
September 23, 2025 11:22 AM UTC
· Asia’s growth trajectory in 2026 reflects regional resilience under strain. Investment-led economies like India and Malaysia are sustaining momentum via infrastructure push, public capex, and digital industrial policy, while Indonesia’s outlook is clouded by fiscal recalibration a
Outlook Overview: Into 2026
September 23, 2025 8:25 AM UTC
· The critical question is how much the U.S. economy is slowing down with the feedthrough of President Donald Trump’s tariffs to boost inflation and restrain GDP growth, with the effective rate currently around 17% on U.S. imports. Though semiconductor tariffs are likely, the bulk of
Equities Outlook: Correction Then Up In 2026
September 23, 2025 7:15 AM UTC
• The U.S. equity market’s bullishness reflects good corporate earnings reality, buybacks and the AI story. However, we feel that the U.S. economy can deteriorate still further in the coming months, as the lagged effects of tariffs boost inflation and restrain spending/hurt corporate ea
September 16, 2025
Succession and Strongmen Leaders
September 16, 2025 10:53 AM UTC
In the unexpected scenario of an early death, Putin and Xi have no clear successors, and any new Russia or China leader would have to spend time building domestic strength and compromising on external goals. Erdogan also has no clear successors, which could create political uncertainty. For Trump su
September 08, 2025
New GST Slabs to Boost Demand as India Faces 50% US Tariffs
September 8, 2025 6:45 AM UTC
India’s landmark GST 2.0 reform, effective 22 September 2025, simplifies slabs to 5% and 18%, with a 40% rate for sin goods. By easing prices on essentials and mid-market products, the move aims to boost demand and partially offset the drag from US tariffs of 50% on Indian exports. While household
Modi in China: Eurasian Diplomacy Meets US Tariff Tensions
September 8, 2025 6:02 AM UTC
Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Tianjin for the SCO Summit underscored India’s pursuit of strategic autonomy—engaging China and Russia while reaffirming ties with the US. Publicly, India backed Eurasian financial and connectivity initiatives, while tactically reopening dialogue with Beijing. Fo
September 04, 2025
September 02, 2025
India GDP Review: Public Spending and Services Lift India’s Growth to Five-Quarter High
September 2, 2025 6:45 AM UTC
India’s economy grew 7.8% y/y in Q1 FY25, beating expectations. Strong gains in construction, services, and agriculture underpinned the recovery, while private consumption and investment remained subdued. However, sustaining momentum in FY26 will hinge on broad-based demand and improving global co
September 01, 2025
Aging: Slow Growth for Some in 2020’s
September 1, 2025 8:35 AM UTC
Population aging always seems to be beyond the market horizon, but the 2020’s are already seeing population aging in some countries. What is the economic impact? Aging is already causing a peak in labor force in China and the EU. Meanwhile, the population pyramid also means less consumptio
August 29, 2025
India GDP Preview: Q1FY26 Growth - Services Surge, Industry Slows: India’s Uneven Q1 Recovery
August 29, 2025 4:49 AM UTC
India’s economy likely grew 6.6% yr/yr in Q1 FY26, down from 7.4% in the previous quarter, as weak private investment and soft industrial output offset robust government spending. Growth was buoyed by strong public capex and resilient services, while manufacturing lagged. Full-year GDP is forecast
August 25, 2025
Tariffs and Tensions: India–US Trade Talks Stalled as Relations Sour
August 25, 2025 6:25 AM UTC
India–US relations have entered a tense phase after Washington doubled tariffs on Indian exports to 50%, the steepest duties applied to any US trading partner. The move, tied to India’s record Russian oil imports, has derailed trade talks scheduled for late August. With USD 87bn in exports at ri
August 13, 2025
India CPI Review: Headline inflation drops sharply on account of food prices
August 13, 2025 7:38 AM UTC
India’s retail inflation fell to 1.55% yr/yr in July 2025, its lowest since 2017 and below the RBI’s 2–6% target band for the first time in over six years. The drop was driven by a sharp contraction in food prices, even as edible oil and fruit inflation remained elevated. With inflation well b
August 07, 2025
EM Rates: Domestic Fundamentals Dominate
August 7, 2025 9:30 AM UTC
Once trade is agreed with the U.S., the good fundamentals actually argue for a 10yr Mexico-U.S. spread close to 400bps and this is our favored strategic risk reward for big EM government bonds. In Brazil a case can be made for a 12.75% policy rate end 2026 and 10% in 2027, but this could only mean 1
August 06, 2025
No Rush to Ease: RBI Flags External Risks, Holds Policy Steady
August 6, 2025 4:39 PM UTC
The RBI held the policy rate at 5.5% in its August 2025 meeting, opting for a strategic pause after front-loading 100bps of cuts earlier this year. While inflation has dropped sharply, global trade risks and sticky core prices argue against further easing for now. The central bank’s neutral stance
August 04, 2025
Trump Tougher Posture with Russia
August 4, 2025 8:31 AM UTC
We suspect that Trump will not follow-through with an across the board secondary sanction on importers of Russia oil, as it would freeze U.S./China trade again and could boost U.S. gasoline prices – high inflation is one main reason for Trump’s softer approval rating. Trump could agre
Tariffs and Tensions: India Holds Its Ground Amid US Pressure
August 4, 2025 5:17 AM UTC
India has responded firmly to US tariff escalation, defending its strategic autonomy on Russian oil and domestic market protections. The economic hit is manageable, but the geopolitical signal is clear: India won’t yield under pressure. Talks will continue, but New Delhi won’t trade core interes
RBI to Hold in August as Policy Cycle Enters Pause Phase
August 4, 2025 4:00 AM UTC
The upcoming RBI August meeting is not about action, but observation. With macro indicators largely aligned and risks tilting toward caution, a rate hold by the RBI is expected. Inflation remains subdued, but growth is resilient—requiring no immediate policy move
August 01, 2025
Reciprocal Tariffs: Some Hikes, Deals and Delays
August 1, 2025 8:40 AM UTC
Though high reciprocal tariffs with some countries catches the headline, five of the top 10 countries with large bilateral deficits have reached framework trade deals, two have delays and three have higher tariffs imposed. With exemptions on some USMCA Canada/Mexico goods, plus phones/ semicondu
July 28, 2025
Food Glorious Food
July 28, 2025 10:15 AM UTC
· Global food prices should see small increases in the future, as production continues to rise broadly in line with increasing demand driven by population and a rising consumption per person in EM countries. However, China will remain dependent on food imports given it has limited roo
The India–UK Free Trade Agreement: Big Win or Big Gamble?
July 28, 2025 4:37 AM UTC
India and the UK have signed a landmark Free Trade Agreement aimed at doubling bilateral trade by 2030. The deal grants India near-total duty-free access for its goods, boosts prospects for agriculture, textiles, and services, and safeguards sensitive sectors. It also signals New Delhi’s evolving
July 24, 2025
EM Currencies with a USD Downtrend
July 24, 2025 10:15 AM UTC
· BRL, ZAR and MXN have been helped by FX carry trades and bond inflows on still wide interest rate differentials. However, actual reciprocal tariff risks are high for all three countries and a wave of profit-taking could be seen. Elsewhere, though we see a U.S./China trade deal by