Emerging Markets
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February 14, 2025 7:05 PM UTC
Argentina’s CPI rose 2.2% in January, slightly below forecasts, with Y/Y inflation dropping to 84% from 116%. Core CPI increased by 2.4%, accumulating 75% annual inflation. Inflation is expected to decline as devaluation effects fade, though inertia may keep it above 2% in the first half. Services
February 14, 2025 7:06 AM UTC
The BJP ended its 27-year drought in Delhi, winning 47 seats and breaking AAP’s dominance. The victory was driven by a united party front, strong RSS ground support, success in key voter blocs, including Sikh, Punjabi, and Dalit communities and the promise of freebies. AAP’s vote share fell to 4
February 13, 2025 4:55 AM UTC
Bank Indonesia is expected to keep rates steady at 5.75% in its February 18-19 meeting after last month’s surprise cut. While inflation remains low and growth is steady, the weakening rupiah and external uncertainties may delay further easing. The central bank is likely to assess the impact of its
February 13, 2025 4:12 AM UTC
India’s inflation cooled to 4.31% in January, clearing the way for more rate cuts as food prices dipped. The RBI is shifting focus to growth. But risks remain—rupee weakness and global commodity prices could still stir inflationary trouble.
February 12, 2025 4:56 PM UTC
India's FY26 budget is a strategic attempt to sustain economic expansion while maintaining fiscal consolidation, with the government targeting a nominal GDP growth of 10.1% and a real GDP expansion of 6.3%-6.8%. The budget continues its capex-led growth approach, increasing infrastructure investment
February 10, 2025 7:14 PM UTC
Mexico’s CPI rose 0.3% in January, below its 0.6% historical average but in line with expectations. Y/Y inflation fell to 3.6%, the lowest since Jan/2021. Core CPI rose 0.4%, with core goods up 0.7% and services up 0.2%. Non-core CPI fell 0.13%, led by a 1.5% drop in agricultural goods. The econom
February 7, 2025 4:57 PM UTC
The RBI has cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%, marking its first reduction in five years. While aimed at supporting growth, the central bank maintains a neutral stance, signaling caution amid global uncertainties. Inflation is projected to ease, but risks from trade disruptions and finan
February 6, 2025 6:16 PM UTC
The Argentine Central Bank cut rates to 29%, citing improved inflation expectations. Rather than using a contractionary policy, it aims to curb monetary base growth through fiscal consolidation. Inflation is below 3%, with a 2% target feasible by mid-year. However, the 1% crawling peg risks eroding
February 6, 2025 7:50 AM UTC
With the RBI’s policy review around the corner, all eyes are on how the central bank will tackle India’s slowing growth momentum and the increased currency volatility. The RBI is likely to cut rate by 25bps to 6.25% on February 8. Imported inflation will remain a key concern.
January 31, 2025 6:34 PM UTC
Mexico’s GDP shrank by 0.6% in Q4 2024, bringing annual growth to 1.5%, well below previous years. The industrial sector led the decline, driven by uncertainty over Trump’s election and weaker investment, while agriculture also contracted sharply. Monetary tightening, lower U.S. demand, and poli
January 31, 2025 2:28 PM UTC
The FY26 Budget comes at a crucial time for India’s economy, requiring a delicate balance between fiscal prudence and economic stimulus. As GDP growth moderates, inflation continues to impact disposable incomes, and global uncertainties persist, the government is expected to focus on targeted meas
January 28, 2025 9:01 AM UTC
Bank Indonesia’s surprise rate cut marks a departure from its traditionally cautious approach and underscores the central bank’s growing focus on stimulating growth. While the decision provides a much-needed boost to economic activity, it also raises questions about the future trajectory of mone
January 27, 2025 7:27 AM UTC
With the RBI’s policy review around the corner, all eyes are on how the central bank will tackle India’s growing liquidity crunch. Despite calls for rate cuts, the banking system's liquidity shortfall—hitting INR 3.3 trillion—poses a bigger challenge, keeping lending rates high and slowing c
January 22, 2025 2:40 PM UTC
Argentina is refining its monetary framework as inflation stabilizes below 3.0% (m/m), marking progress after double-digit levels. Key measures include halting Peso issuance, fiscal adjustments, sterilization to stabilize the monetary base, and diminishing the pace of depreciation of the official ex
January 21, 2025 5:03 AM UTC
The Indian rupee has slumped to an all-time low of 86 against the US dollar, underscoring the pressure on emerging market currencies as the dollar index surges to multi-month highs. For India, this currency depreciation signals potential disruptions in financial markets, with equities and bonds—no
January 16, 2025 2:27 PM UTC
India’s retail inflation eased to a four-month low of 5.22% in December 2024, driven by a seasonal decline in food prices, particularly vegetables and cereals. With inflation within the RBI’s target range, all eyes are on the upcoming monetary policy review for potential rate cuts.
January 15, 2025 1:17 PM UTC
President Claudia Sheinbaum’s “Mexico Plan” targets USD 270 billion in investments, aiming to reduce poverty, boost sustainability, and expand Mexico’s economy. Key goals include nearshoring, increasing domestic production, and fostering U.S. trade relations. However, private investment stag
January 10, 2025 2:11 PM UTC
December’s CPI grew 0.4%, with Y/Y inflation dropping to 4.2%, above Banxico’s 2%-4% target. Core CPI rose 0.5%, driven by services, while non-core inflation was stable. MXN depreciation’s pass-through impact remains limited. Tight monetary policy supports convergence, but Banxico faces a deci
January 10, 2025 10:36 AM UTC
Bottom line: India's inflation rate for October is projected to ease to 5.2% y/y due to base effects and domestic food prices. Moderating food pressures and global commodity prices will see inflationary pressures ease in the coming months.
January 10, 2025 8:06 AM UTC
Currency pressures and policy pivots define BI’s entry into 2025, with the rupiah breaching 16,000 per dollar. Strong reserves and strategic moves signal resilience, but sustaining investor confidence in the face of fiscal and structural vulnerabilities remains a tough challenge.
January 9, 2025 8:14 AM UTC
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is currently navigating a complex economic landscape marked by rising inflation and sluggish growth. The recent appointment of Sanjay Malhotra as the new RBI Governor adds another layer of intrigue to the central bank's policy directi
January 6, 2025 2:19 PM UTC
Mexico's December CPI is forecasted to grow by 0.5% in December, bringing 2024 inflation to 4.3%, above Banxico's target. Core CPI aligns better at 3.5%. Weak demand aids inflation convergence, expected by Q3 2026. Risks include a 22% MXN depreciation and U.S. tariffs. Banxico is likely to continue
December 20, 2024 12:06 PM UTC
Bank Indonesia held its key interest rate at 6% in its December meeting. The decision to hold rates steady is primarily influenced by the need to stabilize the Indonesian rupiah. Inflation remains within target, and GDP growth forecasts are steady. Future rate cuts depend on US Federal Reserve actio
December 19, 2024 10:57 AM UTC
Emerging Asian economies are projected to lead global growth in 2025, with India and Southeast Asia at the forefront. These regions will anchor resilience in Asia, even as China's economic growth remains moderate.
Inflation trajectories will vary across Asia, with India experiencing sticky prices
December 18, 2024 5:21 PM UTC
· Brazil and Mexico economy are likely to decelerate in terms of growth in 2025, although we see this being stronger in Mexico. Mexico legal reforms and its close ties with U.S. increases uncertainty for 2025, especially after Trump elections, although we see tariffs in 2025 as unlikely
December 10, 2024 11:04 AM UTC
Mexico’s November CPI rose 0.4%, lowering the Y/Y rate to 4.6% from 4.8% in October. Non-core inflation increased 1.7%, driven by energy costs and seasonal electricity tariff adjustments, while core inflation remained flat, with core goods contracting 0.3%. Key declines occurred in Domestic Goods
December 3, 2024 6:29 AM UTC
Easing food inflation saw headline CPI decline to 1.5% yr/yr in November. Nonetheless, price pressures from a weakening IDR persist. Bank Indonesia will likely hold rates till the end of 2024.
November 29, 2024 7:31 PM UTC
Banxico’s latest minutes reveal a 25 bps rate cut to 10.25%, with most board members supporting continued easing. They view recent non-core inflation spikes as transitory, expecting headline CPI to decline as shocks dissipate. Core CPI has dropped to 3.8%, reinforcing the case for further cuts, wh
November 29, 2024 3:05 PM UTC
India’s Q2 GDP slowed to 5.4%, driven by weaker manufacturing and global headwinds, but rural demand and agriculture showed resilience. Public investment and festive consumption are expected to support recovery in H2, though challenges like export contraction and fiscal constraints remain.
November 26, 2024 9:45 AM UTC
India’s GDP growth is projected to slow to 6.6% in Q2 FY25, marking the weakest pace in six quarters. This decline is primarily due to slower growth in manufacturing and services, though agriculture has shown resilience. Despite robust government spending and rural demand, weak private consumption
November 22, 2024 11:21 PM UTC
Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration has introduced the 2025 budget, reaffirming Mexico's commitment to fiscal discipline with a projected fiscal consolidation of 2.0% of GDP, reducing the fiscal deficit from 5.9% in 2024 to 3.9% in 2025. Although there is likely an overestimation on GDP growth we b
November 21, 2024 7:20 AM UTC
Bank Indonesia held its key interest rate at 6% to stabilise the rupiah and attract FX inflows, while maintaining interventions in the FX and bond markets. Inflation remains within target, and GDP growth forecasts are steady. Future rate cuts depend on US Federal Reserve actions. A 25bps cut is expe
November 13, 2024 3:09 PM UTC
Argentina's October CPI rose by 2.7%, hitting a three-year low and reducing the Y/Y inflation to 192%. Milei’s fiscal shock plan aims to curb inflation, with anticipated tariff adjustments potentially keeping inflation near 3% monthly in the next month. With inflation dropping Argentine government
November 13, 2024 12:05 PM UTC
Bottom line: The latest CPI figure of 6.2% yr/yr underscores significant inflationary pressures within the Indian economy, primarily driven by food prices but also influenced by housing costs. With inflation now at a 14-month high, the RBI's response will be another rate hold in December. Earliest r
November 11, 2024 6:43 AM UTC
Bottom line: Indonesia’s Q3 GDP growth slipped to 4.95% yr/yr in Q3, missing the 5% target as soaring imports weighed on the headline figure. Private consumption remained steady, while fixed investment showed resilience with notable gains. Looking ahead, Q4 may bring further softening.
November 11, 2024 5:00 AM UTC
Bottom line: India's inflation rate for October is projected to rise to 5.7% y/y due to base effects and domestic food prices. In the short term, global crude oil prices and domestic food price surge may pressure inflation further. The Reserve Bank of India is anticipated to maintain a neutral mon
November 8, 2024 2:58 PM UTC
Mexico's CPI rose 0.54% month-over-month in October, with a year-over-year increase to 4.8%, slightly above expectations. Agricultural goods and energy prices were key contributors. Core CPI, showing positive recent trends, rose 0.3% month-over-month and dropped to 3.8% year-over-year. Banxico is ex
November 4, 2024 7:18 AM UTC
The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) recently maintained the repo rate at 6.50% while shifting its stance from "withdrawal of accommodation" to "neutral," reflecting a cautious approach towards economic growth and inflation management. The meeting, which included three new e
October 30, 2024 6:01 PM UTC
Mexico's Q3 GDP grew by 1.0% quarter-over-quarter, beating market expectations, though annual growth slowed to 1.5%. High employment and stronger-than-expected U.S. demand sustained growth, but the outlook remains cautious. Slower growth is expected ahead, with limited structural shifts such as near
October 23, 2024 6:25 PM UTC
Mexico’s economy contracted by 0.3% in August, with agriculture down 9% and the industrial sector shrinking by 0.5%. Construction dropped 3.6%, and employment growth slowed. Weaker internal demand and stabilizing U.S. demand signal more challenges ahead. Banxico may cut rates further, but subpar g
October 22, 2024 5:51 PM UTC
Since taking office, Milei's administration has focused on tackling Argentina's fiscal and monetary imbalances, implementing a shock fiscal plan to reduce expenditures by 4% in 2024. Fiscal surpluses have been recorded monthly, but the adjustment has caused three consecutive quarters of economic con
October 20, 2024 3:09 PM UTC
Morena's political dominance has strengthened with Claudia Sheinbaum's election and judicial reforms, allowing them to shape the Supreme Court. This boosts their ability to push controversial policies, like state control of Mexico’s energy sector. However, economic slowdown and potential U.S. poli
October 9, 2024 1:56 PM UTC
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has decided to maintain the policy repo rate at 6.50% and has shifted its stance to 'neutral' to balance the objectives of inflation management and economic growth. Although inflation has eased, the RBI remains cautious due to rising geopolitical tensions and increase
October 8, 2024 10:49 AM UTC
Bottom line:India’s September inflation level is expected to trend up to 4.1% y/y, given base effects. Global crude oil prices and heightened geopolitical tensions pose risks to inflation in the near term. Meanwhile, monetary policy is expected to remain tight and policy rate to be retained at 6.5
October 1, 2024 9:25 AM UTC
In September, Indonesia experienced its slowest inflation in nearly three years, driven by a drop in food and transport costs. Core inflation edged up, reflecting price increases in non-essential goods. The ongoing deflationary trend since May, influenced by supply-side factors like strong harvests,
September 30, 2024 6:58 AM UTC
The RBI is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in its October meeting, despite global central banks initiating rate cuts. Domestic inflation concerns and uncertainties over MPC appointments are likely to drive a cautious "wait-and-watch" approach, with potential easing only by December.
September 25, 2024 7:57 AM UTC
Emerging Asian economies are poised to remain the fastest growing globally. India and Southeast Asia will drive regional resilience amid China’s cooling growth engine in 2025. For India, while the external environment remains challenging due to weaker global demand and geopolitical tensions, domes
September 24, 2024 12:54 PM UTC
· Brazil and Mexico started to diverge in terms of growth. While we see Brazil GDP growing above 3.0% in 2024 (pushed by the internal demand), we see Mexico’s growth decelerating to 1.3%, due to weaker demand from U.S. and contractionary monetary policy. In 2025, we see Brazil growing
September 19, 2024 1:38 PM UTC
Argentina’s GDP contracted by 1.7% in Q2 2024, marking three consecutive quarters of decline, largely due to Milei’s economic reforms. While agriculture grew by 80%, industry and consumption sharply declined. A 4.9% contraction is expected for 2024, with limited recovery in 2025, far below gover