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February 14, 2025

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Argentina CPI Review: January Relief but Inflation Fight Continues
Paying Article

February 14, 2025 7:05 PM UTC

Argentina’s CPI rose 2.2% in January, slightly below forecasts, with Y/Y inflation dropping to 84% from 116%. Core CPI increased by 2.4%, accumulating 75% annual inflation. Inflation is expected to decline as devaluation effects fade, though inertia may keep it above 2% in the first half. Services

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BJP Ends 27-Year Drought in Delhi with Decisive Win
Freemium Article

February 14, 2025 7:06 AM UTC

The BJP ended its 27-year drought in Delhi, winning 47 seats and breaking AAP’s dominance. The victory was driven by a united party front, strong RSS ground support, success in key voter blocs, including Sikh, Punjabi, and Dalit communities and the promise of freebies. AAP’s vote share fell to 4

February 13, 2025

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Bank Indonesia Policy Preview: Rate Pause Likely as Rupiah Stability Takes Priority
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 4:55 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia is expected to keep rates steady at 5.75% in its February 18-19 meeting after last month’s surprise cut. While inflation remains low and growth is steady, the weakening rupiah and external uncertainties may delay further easing. The central bank is likely to assess the impact of its

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India CPI Review:Rate Cuts in Sight as Prices Cool
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 4:12 AM UTC

India’s inflation cooled to 4.31% in January, clearing the way for more rate cuts as food prices dipped. The RBI is shifting focus to growth. But risks remain—rupee weakness and global commodity prices could still stir inflationary trouble.

February 12, 2025

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India’s FY26 Budget: Balancing Growth, Fiscal Prudence, and Political Realities
Paying Article

February 12, 2025 4:56 PM UTC

India's FY26 budget is a strategic attempt to sustain economic expansion while maintaining fiscal consolidation, with the government targeting a nominal GDP growth of 10.1% and a real GDP expansion of 6.3%-6.8%. The budget continues its capex-led growth approach, increasing infrastructure investment

February 10, 2025

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Mexico CPI Review: Inflation Falls as Demand Eases
Paying Article

February 10, 2025 7:14 PM UTC

Mexico’s CPI rose 0.3% in January, below its 0.6% historical average but in line with expectations. Y/Y inflation fell to 3.6%, the lowest since Jan/2021. Core CPI rose 0.4%, with core goods up 0.7% and services up 0.2%. Non-core CPI fell 0.13%, led by a 1.5% drop in agricultural goods. The econom

February 07, 2025

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Monetary Policy Reset: RBI’s Balancing Act Begins
Paying Article

February 7, 2025 4:57 PM UTC

The RBI has cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%, marking its first reduction in five years. While aimed at supporting growth, the central bank maintains a neutral stance, signaling caution amid global uncertainties. Inflation is projected to ease, but risks from trade disruptions and finan

February 06, 2025

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Argentina: Lower Rates, Conditions to Lift the Controls
Freemium Article

February 6, 2025 6:16 PM UTC

The Argentine Central Bank cut rates to 29%, citing improved inflation expectations. Rather than using a contractionary policy, it aims to curb monetary base growth through fiscal consolidation. Inflation is below 3%, with a 2% target feasible by mid-year. However, the 1% crawling peg risks eroding

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RBI Monetary Policy Preview: MPC to Deliver a Rate Cut
Paying Article

February 6, 2025 7:50 AM UTC

With the RBI’s policy review around the corner, all eyes are on how the central bank will tackle India’s slowing growth momentum and the increased currency volatility. The RBI is likely to cut rate by 25bps to 6.25% on February 8. Imported inflation will remain a key concern. 

January 31, 2025

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Mexico GDP Review: 0.6% Contraction in Q4 and Recession Risks
Paying Article

January 31, 2025 6:34 PM UTC

Mexico’s GDP shrank by 0.6% in Q4 2024, bringing annual growth to 1.5%, well below previous years. The industrial sector led the decline, driven by uncertainty over Trump’s election and weaker investment, while agriculture also contracted sharply. Monetary tightening, lower U.S. demand, and poli

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India Budget Preview: Balancing Growth and Fiscal Prudence: What to Expect from Budget 2025
Freemium Article

January 31, 2025 2:28 PM UTC

The FY26 Budget comes at a crucial time for India’s economy, requiring a delicate balance between fiscal prudence and economic stimulus. As GDP growth moderates, inflation continues to impact disposable incomes, and global uncertainties persist, the government is expected to focus on targeted meas

January 28, 2025

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Bank Indonesia’s Policy Shift: Is More Easing on the Horizon?
Paying Article

January 28, 2025 9:01 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia’s surprise rate cut marks a departure from its traditionally cautious approach and underscores the central bank’s growing focus on stimulating growth. While the decision provides a much-needed boost to economic activity, it also raises questions about the future trajectory of mone

January 27, 2025

Monetary Policy Watch: Will RBI Infuse Liquidity or Cut Rates?
Freemium Article

January 27, 2025 7:27 AM UTC

With the RBI’s policy review around the corner, all eyes are on how the central bank will tackle India’s growing liquidity crunch. Despite calls for rate cuts, the banking system's liquidity shortfall—hitting INR 3.3 trillion—poses a bigger challenge, keeping lending rates high and slowing c

January 22, 2025

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Argentina: Adjusting the Anchor
Freemium Article

January 22, 2025 2:40 PM UTC

Argentina is refining its monetary framework as inflation stabilizes below 3.0% (m/m), marking progress after double-digit levels. Key measures include halting Peso issuance, fiscal adjustments, sterilization to stabilize the monetary base, and diminishing the pace of depreciation of the official ex

January 21, 2025

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Rupee at Record Low: Can India Weather the Dollar Storm?
Freemium Article

January 21, 2025 5:03 AM UTC

The Indian rupee has slumped to an all-time low of 86 against the US dollar, underscoring the pressure on emerging market currencies as the dollar index surges to multi-month highs. For India, this currency depreciation signals potential disruptions in financial markets, with equities and bonds—no

January 16, 2025

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India CPI Review: CPI Cools but Target Not in Sight
Paying Article

January 16, 2025 2:27 PM UTC

India’s retail inflation eased to a four-month low of 5.22% in December 2024, driven by a seasonal decline in food prices, particularly vegetables and cereals. With inflation within the RBI’s target range, all eyes are on the upcoming monetary policy review for potential rate cuts.

January 15, 2025

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Mexico’s Plan: An Eye on Nearshoring and Displacing China in U.S.
Freemium Article

January 15, 2025 1:17 PM UTC

President Claudia Sheinbaum’s “Mexico Plan” targets USD 270 billion in investments, aiming to reduce poverty, boost sustainability, and expand Mexico’s economy. Key goals include nearshoring, increasing domestic production, and fostering U.S. trade relations. However, private investment stag

January 10, 2025

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Mexico CPI Review: Downtrend Continues
Paying Article

January 10, 2025 2:11 PM UTC

December’s CPI grew 0.4%, with Y/Y inflation dropping to 4.2%, above Banxico’s 2%-4% target. Core CPI rose 0.5%, driven by services, while non-core inflation was stable. MXN depreciation’s pass-through impact remains limited. Tight monetary policy supports convergence, but Banxico faces a deci

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India CPI Preview: A Cautiously Optimistic Outlook
Paying Article

January 10, 2025 10:36 AM UTC

Bottom line: India's inflation rate for October is projected to ease to 5.2% y/y due to base effects and domestic food prices. Moderating food pressures and global commodity prices will see inflationary pressures ease in the coming months. 

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Reserves, Rates, and Reform: BI’s 2025 Strategy to Stabilise the Rupiah
Paying Article

January 10, 2025 8:06 AM UTC

Currency pressures and policy pivots define BI’s entry into 2025, with the rupiah breaching 16,000 per dollar. Strong reserves and strategic moves signal resilience, but sustaining investor confidence in the face of fiscal and structural vulnerabilities remains a tough challenge.

January 09, 2025

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The Growth-Inflation Tug of War: RBI’s 2025 Policy Outlook with a New Governor
Freemium Article

January 9, 2025 8:14 AM UTC

The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is currently navigating a complex economic landscape marked by rising inflation and sluggish growth. The recent appointment of Sanjay Malhotra as the new RBI Governor adds another layer of intrigue to the central bank's policy directi

January 06, 2025

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Mexico CPI Preview: Christmas Acceleration
Freemium Article

January 6, 2025 2:19 PM UTC

Mexico's December CPI is forecasted to grow by 0.5% in December, bringing 2024 inflation to 4.3%, above Banxico's target. Core CPI aligns better at 3.5%. Weak demand aids inflation convergence, expected by Q3 2026. Risks include a 22% MXN depreciation and U.S. tariffs. Banxico is likely to continue

December 20, 2024

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Bank Indonesia Holds Rate to Support IDR
Paying Article

December 20, 2024 12:06 PM UTC

Bank Indonesia held its key interest rate at 6% in its December meeting. The decision to hold rates steady is primarily influenced by the need to stabilize the Indonesian rupiah. Inflation remains within target, and GDP growth forecasts are steady. Future rate cuts depend on US Federal Reserve actio

December 19, 2024

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Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Trump Tariffs, China +1 and Growth
Paying Article

December 19, 2024 10:57 AM UTC

Emerging Asian economies are projected to lead global growth in 2025, with India and Southeast Asia at the forefront. These regions will anchor resilience in Asia, even as China's economic growth remains moderate.  
Inflation trajectories will vary across Asia, with India experiencing sticky prices

December 18, 2024

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LatAm Outlook: Economic Shifts
Paying Article

December 18, 2024 5:21 PM UTC

·       Brazil and Mexico economy are likely to decelerate in terms of growth in 2025, although we see this being stronger in Mexico. Mexico legal reforms and its close ties with U.S. increases uncertainty for 2025, especially after Trump elections, although we see tariffs in 2025 as unlikely

December 10, 2024

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Mexico CPI Review: Signs of Disinflation
Paying Article

December 10, 2024 11:04 AM UTC

Mexico’s November CPI rose 0.4%, lowering the Y/Y rate to 4.6% from 4.8% in October. Non-core inflation increased 1.7%, driven by energy costs and seasonal electricity tariff adjustments, while core inflation remained flat, with core goods contracting 0.3%. Key declines occurred in Domestic Goods

December 03, 2024

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Indonesia CPI Review: Headline Inflation Eases in November, but Core Pressures Build
Paying Article

December 3, 2024 6:29 AM UTC

Easing food inflation saw headline CPI decline to 1.5% yr/yr in November. Nonetheless, price pressures from a weakening IDR persist. Bank Indonesia will likely hold rates till the end of 2024. 

November 29, 2024

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Banxico Minutes: Evaluating Further Cuts
Paying Article

November 29, 2024 7:31 PM UTC

Banxico’s latest minutes reveal a 25 bps rate cut to 10.25%, with most board members supporting continued easing. They view recent non-core inflation spikes as transitory, expecting headline CPI to decline as shocks dissipate. Core CPI has dropped to 3.8%, reinforcing the case for further cuts, wh

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India GDP Review: Rural Strength vs Manufacturing Weakness - Q2 Story
Freemium Article

November 29, 2024 3:05 PM UTC

India’s Q2 GDP slowed to 5.4%, driven by weaker manufacturing and global headwinds, but rural demand and agriculture showed resilience. Public investment and festive consumption are expected to support recovery in H2, though challenges like export contraction and fiscal constraints remain.

November 26, 2024

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India GDP Review: India’s GDP Faces Headwinds in Q2 FY25
Paying Article

November 26, 2024 9:45 AM UTC

India’s GDP growth is projected to slow to 6.6% in Q2 FY25, marking the weakest pace in six quarters. This decline is primarily due to slower growth in manufacturing and services, though agriculture has shown resilience. Despite robust government spending and rural demand, weak private consumption

November 22, 2024

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Mexico: Budget Aims at Resuming Fiscal Discipline
Freemium Article

November 22, 2024 11:21 PM UTC

Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration has introduced the 2025 budget, reaffirming Mexico's commitment to fiscal discipline with a projected fiscal consolidation of 2.0% of GDP, reducing the fiscal deficit from 5.9% in 2024 to 3.9% in 2025. Although there is likely an overestimation on GDP growth we b

November 21, 2024

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Bank Indonesia Retains Rate Prioritises Rupiah
Paying Article

November 21, 2024 7:20 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia held its key interest rate at 6% to stabilise the rupiah and attract FX inflows, while maintaining interventions in the FX and bond markets. Inflation remains within target, and GDP growth forecasts are steady. Future rate cuts depend on US Federal Reserve actions. A 25bps cut is expe

November 13, 2024

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Argentina CPI Review: Monthly Inflation Drops to 2.7%
Paying Article

November 13, 2024 3:09 PM UTC

Argentina's October CPI rose by 2.7%, hitting a three-year low and reducing the Y/Y inflation to 192%. Milei’s fiscal shock plan aims to curb inflation, with anticipated tariff adjustments potentially keeping inflation near 3% monthly in the next month. With inflation dropping Argentine government

India CPI Review: CPI Hits New Heights
Freemium Article

November 13, 2024 12:05 PM UTC

Bottom line: The latest CPI figure of 6.2% yr/yr underscores significant inflationary pressures within the Indian economy, primarily driven by food prices but also influenced by housing costs. With inflation now at a 14-month high, the RBI's response will be another rate hold in December. Earliest r

November 11, 2024

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Imports Surge, Growth Slows: Indonesia’s Q3 GDP Falls Short of 5% Mark
Paying Article

November 11, 2024 6:43 AM UTC

Bottom line: Indonesia’s Q3 GDP growth slipped to 4.95% yr/yr in Q3, missing the 5% target as soaring imports weighed on the headline figure. Private consumption remained steady, while fixed investment showed resilience with notable gains. Looking ahead, Q4 may bring further softening. 

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India CPI Preview: Food prices to weigh on headline CPI
Freemium Article

November 11, 2024 5:00 AM UTC

Bottom line: India's inflation rate for October is projected to rise to 5.7% y/y  due to base effects and domestic food prices. In the short term, global crude oil prices and domestic food price surge may pressure inflation further. The Reserve Bank of India is anticipated to maintain a neutral mon

November 08, 2024

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Mexico CPI Review: Agricultural Goods Drive Inflation Up
Freemium Article

November 8, 2024 2:58 PM UTC

Mexico's CPI rose 0.54% month-over-month in October, with a year-over-year increase to 4.8%, slightly above expectations. Agricultural goods and energy prices were key contributors. Core CPI, showing positive recent trends, rose 0.3% month-over-month and dropped to 3.8% year-over-year. Banxico is ex

November 04, 2024

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Hawks or Doves? Decoding the New RBI MPC's Monetary Policy Shift
Paying Article

November 4, 2024 7:18 AM UTC

The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) recently maintained the repo rate at 6.50% while shifting its stance from "withdrawal of accommodation" to "neutral," reflecting a cautious approach towards economic growth and inflation management. The meeting, which included three new e

October 30, 2024

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Mexico GDP: Demand Sustains Q3 Rebound, but Growth Expected to Slow
Paying Article

October 30, 2024 6:01 PM UTC

Mexico's Q3 GDP grew by 1.0% quarter-over-quarter, beating market expectations, though annual growth slowed to 1.5%. High employment and stronger-than-expected U.S. demand sustained growth, but the outlook remains cautious. Slower growth is expected ahead, with limited structural shifts such as near

October 23, 2024

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Mexico: Economy Contracts in August, Slowdown Continues
Freemium Article

October 23, 2024 6:25 PM UTC

Mexico’s economy contracted by 0.3% in August, with agriculture down 9% and the industrial sector shrinking by 0.5%. Construction dropped 3.6%, and employment growth slowed. Weaker internal demand and stabilizing U.S. demand signal more challenges ahead. Banxico may cut rates further, but subpar g

October 22, 2024

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Argentina: Milei’s Plan Going Smoothly
Freemium Article

October 22, 2024 5:51 PM UTC

Since taking office, Milei's administration has focused on tackling Argentina's fiscal and monetary imbalances, implementing a shock fiscal plan to reduce expenditures by 4% in 2024. Fiscal surpluses have been recorded monthly, but the adjustment has caused three consecutive quarters of economic con

October 20, 2024

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Mexico: More Institutional Reforms on the Pipeline
Freemium Article

October 20, 2024 3:09 PM UTC

Morena's political dominance has strengthened with Claudia Sheinbaum's election and judicial reforms, allowing them to shape the Supreme Court. This boosts their ability to push controversial policies, like state control of Mexico’s energy sector. However, economic slowdown and potential U.S. poli

October 09, 2024

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Holding the Line: RBI Maintains Policy Rate Amid Economic Optimism
Paying Article

October 9, 2024 1:56 PM UTC

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has decided to maintain the policy repo rate at 6.50% and has shifted its stance to 'neutral' to balance the objectives of inflation management and economic growth. Although inflation has eased, the RBI remains cautious due to rising geopolitical tensions and increase

October 08, 2024

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India CPI Preview: Inflation to Surge as Base Effects Fade
Freemium Article

October 8, 2024 10:49 AM UTC

Bottom line:India’s September inflation level is expected to trend up to 4.1% y/y, given base effects. Global crude oil prices and heightened geopolitical tensions pose risks to inflation in the near term. Meanwhile, monetary policy is expected to remain tight and policy rate to be retained at 6.5

October 01, 2024

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Indonesia CPI Review: Cooling Inflation Signals More Rate Cuts Ahead for Indonesia
Paying Article

October 1, 2024 9:25 AM UTC

In September, Indonesia experienced its slowest inflation in nearly three years, driven by a drop in food and transport costs. Core inflation edged up, reflecting price increases in non-essential goods. The ongoing deflationary trend since May, influenced by supply-side factors like strong harvests,

September 30, 2024

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RBI’s October Rate Call: Patience May Prevail Over Pressure
Paying Article

September 30, 2024 6:58 AM UTC

The RBI is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in its October meeting, despite global central banks initiating rate cuts. Domestic inflation concerns and uncertainties over MPC appointments are likely to drive a cautious "wait-and-watch" approach, with potential easing only by December. 

September 25, 2024

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Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Shifting Gears for Growth
Paying Article

September 25, 2024 7:57 AM UTC

Emerging Asian economies are poised to remain the fastest growing globally. India and Southeast Asia will drive regional resilience amid China’s cooling growth engine in 2025. For India, while the external environment remains challenging due to weaker global demand and geopolitical tensions, domes

September 24, 2024

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LatAm Outlook: Diverging Patterns
Paying Article

September 24, 2024 12:54 PM UTC

·       Brazil and Mexico started to diverge in terms of growth. While we see Brazil GDP growing above 3.0% in 2024 (pushed by the internal demand), we see Mexico’s growth decelerating to 1.3%, due to weaker demand from U.S. and contractionary monetary policy. In 2025, we see Brazil growing

September 19, 2024

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Argentina GDP Review: 1.7% Contraction in Q2
Paying Article

September 19, 2024 1:38 PM UTC

Argentina’s GDP contracted by 1.7% in Q2 2024, marking three consecutive quarters of decline, largely due to Milei’s economic reforms. While agriculture grew by 80%, industry and consumption sharply declined. A 4.9% contraction is expected for 2024, with limited recovery in 2025, far below gover

September 16, 2024

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Bank Indonesia Preview: Rupiah Defense - BI to Hold Rates, Eye Future Easing
Paying Article

September 16, 2024 8:24 AM UTC

Easing food inflation saw headline CPI decline to 2.1% yr/yr in July. Nonetheless, price pressures from a weakening IDR persist. Bank Indonesia will likely hold rates till Q4-2024.