Rate Hold Expected as Bank Indonesia Eyes H2 Trade Risks

August 19, 2025 6:26 AM UTC

With headline inflation still well-contained, core pressures softening, and the economy showing signs of resilience, Bank Indonesia is expected to keep rates on hold. Further easing may come later in H2—but only if external risks re-intensify or domestic growth falters.

India CPI Review: Headline inflation drops sharply on account of food prices

August 13, 2025 7:38 AM UTC

India’s retail inflation fell to 1.55% yr/yr in July 2025, its lowest since 2017 and below the RBI’s 2–6% target band for the first time in over six years. The drop was driven by a sharp contraction in food prices, even as edible oil and fruit inflation remained elevated. With inflation well b

Mexico: Further 25bps Cuts Ahead

August 8, 2025 6:44 AM UTC

Banxico forward guidance, plus trade policy risks with the U.S. now see us forecasting an end 2025 policy rate at 7.25% with two 25bps cuts in September and December. We now feel that the risks to 2026 growth will encourage Banxico to move the policy rate down to 6.5% by spring 2026 by two 25bps rat

No Rush to Ease: RBI Flags External Risks, Holds Policy Steady

August 6, 2025 4:39 PM UTC

The RBI held the policy rate at 5.5% in its August 2025 meeting, opting for a strategic pause after front-loading 100bps of cuts earlier this year. While inflation has dropped sharply, global trade risks and sticky core prices argue against further easing for now. The central bank’s neutral stance

Indonesia Q2 GDP Beats Expectations

August 5, 2025 9:45 AM UTC

Q2’s outperformance gives Indonesia’s economic planners breathing space. Investment recovery is a strong positive signal, but sustaining growth in H2 will depend on policy agility, export resilience, and keeping domestic consumption robust.

Tariffs and Tensions: India Holds Its Ground Amid US Pressure

August 4, 2025 5:17 AM UTC

India has responded firmly to US tariff escalation, defending its strategic autonomy on Russian oil and domestic market protections. The economic hit is manageable, but the geopolitical signal is clear: India won’t yield under pressure. Talks will continue, but New Delhi won’t trade core interes

RBI to Hold in August as Policy Cycle Enters Pause Phase

August 4, 2025 4:00 AM UTC

The upcoming RBI August meeting is not about action, but observation. With macro indicators largely aligned and risks tilting toward caution, a rate hold by the RBI is expected. Inflation remains subdued, but growth is resilient—requiring no immediate policy move

Indonesia’s Trade Surplus Widens Sharply in H1 2025 Despite Tariff Headwinds

August 3, 2025 4:43 PM UTC

Indonesia’s June trade numbers reflect a strong first-half export performance, bolstered by frontloading ahead of US tariffs. The 62-month surplus streak highlights ongoing resilience, but softer trade momentum in H2 is anticipated as the tariff impact begins to filter through.

Indonesia’s July CPI Rises on Food Prices, But BI Still Has Room to Ease

August 3, 2025 3:27 PM UTC

Despite a food-driven uptick in July CPI, Indonesia’s inflation remains comfortably within Bank Indonesia’s target range. BI retains room to cut rates further in H2—though global uncertainty, particularly around US trade policy and Fed moves, may temper the pace of easing.

Indonesia’s 2026 Blueprint: Growth Goals Amid a Shaky Global Backdrop

July 28, 2025 5:54 AM UTC

Indonesia’s newly approved 2026 macroeconomic framework targets robust growth, fiscal discipline, and poverty eradication. However, external headwinds—including unresolved US tariff risks—and tepid domestic consumption pose serious execution risks. Without sharper prioritisation and institutio

The India–UK Free Trade Agreement: Big Win or Big Gamble?

July 28, 2025 4:37 AM UTC

India and the UK have signed a landmark Free Trade Agreement aimed at doubling bilateral trade by 2030. The deal grants India near-total duty-free access for its goods, boosts prospects for agriculture, textiles, and services, and safeguards sensitive sectors. It also signals New Delhi’s evolving

No Deal Yet: India–US Trade Talks Stretch Beyond August Deadline

July 24, 2025 5:42 AM UTC

India and the US have made progress in negotiations for an interim trade deal, but key sticking points—particularly around agriculture and autos—remain unresolved ahead of the August 1 deadline for new US tariffs. President Trump’s tariff-first strategy has pushed India to seek partial relief,

Deal or Dilemma: What the US–Indonesia Trade Pact Really Means

July 17, 2025 5:46 AM UTC

The US–Indonesia trade deal marks a significant geopolitical and economic pivot, reducing a threatened 32% tariff to 19% in exchange for USD 34bn in US imports and open market access. While the agreement offers Jakarta temporary relief, it locks the country into a transactional trade model amid ri

India CPI Review: CPI at 2.1%: Increased Headroom for One More Cut

July 15, 2025 4:33 AM UTC

India’s retail inflation dropped to a six-year low of 2.82% in May, driven by easing food prices and supported by favourable base effects. While disinflation continues to create monetary space, RBI's next rate cut will be data driven. 

India CPI Preview: Inflation Set to Ease Further in June

July 11, 2025 12:00 PM UTC

India’s retail inflation is likely to drop further in June to 2.7% y/r/yr supported by lower food prices and high base effects. This will allow RBI sufficient room to cut interest rates further in H2-2025. 

Indonesia CPI Review: CPI Inches Up, But BI Still Has Room to Ease

July 3, 2025 8:12 AM UTC

Indonesia’s inflation edged up to 1.87% yr/yr in June on higher food prices, but overall price pressures remain subdued. With CPI well within Bank Indonesia’s target range and growth momentum softening, the central bank retains room to cut rates again in the second half of 2025.

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Slower Trade, Softer Inflation, and Looser Policy

June 24, 2025 9:24 AM UTC

·       Asia’s growth profile in 2025 reflects a region navigating structural transition amid external strain. Investment-led economies like India are benefitting from infrastructure spending, industrial policy momentum, and political continuity. In contrast, trade-reliant markets such as V

BI Likely to Keep Rates Unchanged Amid Global Volatility

June 16, 2025 5:41 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia is expected to hold rates at 5.50% in June after two cuts earlier this year, opting for a pause amid global uncertainty. Subdued inflation and a stable rupiah provide policy space, but the central bank is likely to wait for clearer signals from the Fed. A fresh rate cut remains likely

India CPI Review: CPI at 2.82%: Disinflation Deepens, But Risks Linger

June 13, 2025 7:18 AM UTC

India’s retail inflation dropped to a six-year low of 2.82% in May, driven by easing food prices and supported by favourable base effects. While disinflation continues to create monetary space, RBI's next rate cut will be data driven. 

Indonesia CPI Review: CPI Moderates Making Room For Rate Cut

June 4, 2025 9:55 AM UTC

Indonesia’s inflation slowed further in May, while the country’s trade surplus narrowed to its lowest level in five years, deepening expectations that Bank Indonesia (BI) could pursue additional rate cuts later this year to cushion slowing domestic growth.

India GDP Review: Growth Outpaces Expectations as Q4 GDP Hits Four-Quarter High

June 2, 2025 11:56 AM UTC

India’s economy grew 7.4% y/y in Q4 FY25, beating expectations and capping full-year growth at 6.5%. Strong gains in construction, services, and agriculture underpinned the recovery, while private consumption and investment strengthened. However, sustaining momentum in FY26 will hinge on broad-bas

BI Cuts Rates to Cushion Growth Slowdown as Inflation Stays Benign

May 23, 2025 10:23 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia cut its benchmark rate by 25bps to 5.50% in May, citing subdued inflation and stabilising currency conditions. With Q1 growth slowing to 4.87%, the central bank has shifted focus to supporting domestic momentum, signalling potential for further easing in the second half of 2025.

Ceasefire or Reset? India Redraws the Rules

May 12, 2025 6:05 AM UTC

India and Pakistan have entered a fragile ceasefire after a week of precision strikes, drone warfare, and missile exchanges. But New Delhi’s clear message—that future terror attacks will be treated as acts of war—marks a strategic shift. Deterrence in South Asia has a new author, and India is

A Windfall with Caveats: RBI’s Likely Record Dividend

May 9, 2025 2:00 PM UTC

India is set to receive a record INR 3–3.5tn dividend from the RBI, offering a fiscal cushion amid softening tax revenues and rising geopolitical tensions with Pakistan. While this windfall may help the government stick to its 4.4% fiscal deficit target for FY26, it also highlights India’s growi

India CPI Preview: Cooling Prices, Warming Room for Rate Cuts

May 9, 2025 9:48 AM UTC

India’s retail inflation likely fell to 3.2% in April, its lowest since 2019, driven by a sharp decline in food prices. The benign inflation print strengthens the case for another RBI rate cut as growth momentum softens. 

Deterrence on a Deadline: India, Pakistan, and the New Escalation Paradigm

May 9, 2025 6:29 AM UTC

India and Pakistan are now embroiled in their most serious military confrontation in years, with hostilities expanding across air, land, and unmanned domains. Following the May 7 cross-border strikes under Operation Sindoor, India launched a calibrated military offensive on Thursday targeting Pakist

Indonesia’s Q1 GDP Disappoints, Deepening Case for Rate Cut

May 8, 2025 8:05 AM UTC

Bottom line: Indonesia’s Q1 GDP growth slipped to 4.87% yr/yr, missing the 5% target as public spending declined. Household consumption edged down and fixed investment declined sharply. Looking ahead, Q2 may bring further softening. 

Transit Revoked, Ties Recalibrated: What Bangladesh's Pivot Signals

May 6, 2025 5:32 AM UTC

India’s revocation of transhipment access to Bangladesh marks a broader shift in bilateral ties, driven by Dhaka’s strategic pivot towards China and Pakistan. The move reflects India’s growing unease over regional security and the erosion of mutual trust post-regime change in Dhaka. For India,

Standoff Renewed: India and Pakistan Edge Closer to the Brink

May 6, 2025 3:33 AM UTC

India–Pakistan tensions have sharply escalated following a deadly terror attack in Kashmir, prompting sweeping diplomatic, military, and economic measures on both sides. New Delhi has ordered mock civilian defence drills and restricted the flow of river Chenab. Additionally, ceasefire violations a

Indonesia’s April Inflation Hits 7-Month High on Utility Price Rebound

May 6, 2025 3:19 AM UTC

Headline inflation rose to 1.95% y/y in April 2025, driven mainly by higher utility costs. Food and personal care items also remained key contributors to price pressures.

Mexico’s GDP Review: Saved from the Technical Recession, but Growth Slows

April 30, 2025 2:52 PM UTC

Mexico narrowly avoided a technical recession in Q1 2025 with 0.2% GDP growth, driven by a volatile rebound in agriculture. However, industrial output contracted and services stagnated, highlighting a broader economic slowdown. Uncertainty over potential U.S. tariffs and tight monetary and fiscal po

Argentina: Activity Continues Growing

April 28, 2025 1:15 PM UTC

Argentina’s economy grew 2.3% in February and 6% year-on-year, showing continued short-term recovery driven by financial and mining sectors. However, rising imports and an overvalued exchange rate are straining reserves, despite IMF support. While agricultural exports may ease pressure mid-year, s

From Tariffs to Technology: JD Vance’s Four-Day Engagement in India

April 28, 2025 6:24 AM UTC

US Vice President JD Vance’s visit to India marked a shift toward a more pragmatic and parity-driven partnership. While reinforcing trade, defence, and energy cooperation, the trip also highlighted the difficult negotiations ahead. 

India Redraws Its Red Lines with Pakistan

April 24, 2025 10:24 AM UTC

In one of the deadliest attacks in Kashmir in years, 26 Hindu tourists were killed by Pakistan-backed militants in Pahalgam. India has responded by suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, expelling Pakistani nationals, and downgrading diplomatic ties — signalling a hard shift in its Pakistan policy. T

BI Holds Rates as Rupiah Takes Centre Stage

April 24, 2025 5:34 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.75% in April, prioritising currency stability over immediate growth support. Despite subdued inflation and earlier indications of easing, the central bank is holding off on rate cuts amid heightened global uncertainty and rupiah weakness following U

Bank Indonesia to Hold Rates as Currency Pressures Mount

April 22, 2025 6:12 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 5.75%, reflecting a cautious stance amid the rupiah's depreciation and mixed economic signals. With the rupiah near five-year lows and influenced by external uncertainties, the central bank is balancing the need to support economi

Banxico Minutes: Comfortable about the Cuts Amid the Volatility

April 17, 2025 2:26 PM UTC

Banxico’s latest minutes confirm a cautious but steady path toward policy normalization, with the policy rate expected to reach neutral levels (7.00–8.00%) in 2025. While the economy shows signs of deceleration and a negative output gap, inflation continues to ease, nearing historical averages.

India's Industrial Chill: 2.9 % Growth Signals Cooling Engines

April 17, 2025 1:05 PM UTC

India’s factory growth hit the brakes in February, with industrial production rising just 2.9 %, half January’s pace and the slowest since August 2024. Manufacturing and mining lost traction, while a small pickup in electricity output provided limited relief. Stalling consumer‑goods output an

Argentina: Moving to Phase 3, Bands Flotation

April 15, 2025 8:33 PM UTC

Argentina launched Phase 3 of its macro plan, ending currency restrictions for individuals and securing a USD 20B IMF deal to stabilize falling reserves. The Central Bank shifted from a crawling peg to a target band exchange rate regime, allowing for a 1% monthly devaluation within ARS 1,000–1,400

Indonesia's Strategy to Counter US Tariffs

April 14, 2025 5:06 AM UTC

Facing a potential 32% tariff from the US, Indonesia has launched a multi-pronged strategy to fortify trade relations and ease market access for American giants like Apple and Microsoft. The government plans to lower domestic content requirements and introduce fiscal incentives to attract US investm

Mexico CPI Review: Moving as Expected

April 10, 2025 2:20 PM UTC

Mexico’s March CPI rose 0.31%, matching expectations but below the historical average. Annual inflation edged up to 3.80%, driven by core components like food and services. Non-core inflation fell due to lower energy prices. Food saw strong gains, while transport costs declined. The narrowing gap

RBI Unveils New Rate Cut, Shifts Stance to Accommodative

April 10, 2025 7:29 AM UTC

In a bid to reignite momentum, the Reserve Bank of India trimmed its key policy rate to 6% and adopted an “accommodative” stance, signalling more support could follow. With inflation now forecast at 4.0% and GDP growth projected at 6.5%, Governor Sanjay Malhotra’s forward-looking policy aims t

Indonesia CPI Review: CPI Returns To Positive Territory

April 10, 2025 7:21 AM UTC

Indonesia's inflation reached a three-month high and returned to positive territory in March, recording 1.03% yr/yr. The rebound was driven by the expiry of a government electricity discount program and seasonal demand during Ramadan. The housing and utilities category saw the highest price increase